HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 13th March 2025.


Wall Street Rebounds on Cooler CPI, But Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Markets.





Wall Street found some relief as cooler-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data provided a temporary boost for stocks. However, Treasury yields continued to rise, with investors remaining cautious amid ongoing tariff uncertainties.



Stock Market Reaction to CPI Data
The US stock market recovered after enduring sharp losses throughout the month. The tech-heavy NASDAQ led the rebound with a 1.22% gain, although it remains down 6.35% for March. The S&P 500 climbed 0.49%, yet it is still off by 5.97% for the month, finishing just below the 5600 mark at 5599. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.2% lower, reflecting investor apprehension over economic policy shifts.


Despite the positive CPI data, Treasury bonds failed to benefit. The 2-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 3.982%, while the freshly auctioned 10-year yield rose 3.3 basis points to 4.318%. Investors refrained from aggressively chasing bonds as inflation trends had already softened before the latest tariff measures took effect.




Global Market Response to Trade Policies
Markets in Asia struggled on Thursday, reversing early gains as concerns over U.S. trade policies overshadowed optimism from the U.S. inflation report. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell 1.4%, while China’s blue-chip stocks dropped 0.7%. Japan’s Nikkei initially gained 1.4% before retreating to flat territory.


Australia’s benchmark index slid 0.5%, confirming a technical correction as it fell 10% from its record high reached on February 14. European markets also faced pressure, with STOXX 50 futures slipping 0.5%. Meanwhile, US futures pointed to a weak Wall Street open, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and NASDAQ futures off 0.8%.


Trade Tensions and Inflation Concerns
The US government’s latest tariff measures on steel and aluminium, which took effect on Wednesday, added to market uncertainty. Canada and Europe responded with swift retaliatory duties, further exacerbating trade tensions. Please note that the trade policy developments are clouding inflation forecasts, with potential further tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods posing additional risks.


Commodity Market Trends
Safe-haven assets gained traction amid market volatility. Gold prices surged 0.5% to $2,947.06 per ounce, nearing the all-time high of $2,956.15 from February 24. The Yen strengthened by 0.4% to 147.70 per Dollar, while the Euro edged 0.1% lower to $1.0879.


Crude oil prices pulled back after a recent rally. Brent crude futures declined 0.3% to $70.77 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 0.4% to $67.44 per barrel.


Looking Ahead

The combination of trade policy uncertainty, inflation concerns, and shifting investor sentiment continues to shape global markets. While Wall Street saw a brief recovery, ongoing volatility suggests that market participants remain cautious as they navigate the evolving economic landscape.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 12th March 2025.


Eyes on Inflation: Market Volatility, Tariffs, and Geopolitical Tensions Shake Wall Street.



It was another volatile session as markets assessed fresh news on tariffs and Ukraine, all while positioning for upcoming economic reports like the JOLTS data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Wall Street closed lower but off its lows, with the Dow slipping by -1.14%, finishing at 41,433, after dropping to a session low of 41,175. This decline followed reports that President Trump would increase tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium by another 25%, bringing the total levy to 50%. This move was seen as retaliation for Ontario’s 25% tariff on US electricity imports.
This news lifted some of the market's anxiety, though fears of the ongoing trade war and its broader economic implications remains. The tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports could potentially revive US factory jobs. This decision adds to the growing uncertainty surrounding the stock market, which is grappling with concerns about an economic slowdown.
The S&P 500 closed with a -0.76% loss, settling at 5572, just shy of correction territory, while the NASDAQ fell by -0.18% to 17,436 after fluctuating in and out of positive territory.
Treasury Yields and the Stock Market: Diverging Signals
Despite the declines in stocks, treasury yields saw a rise, with the 2-year up 6.2 basis points at 3.945%, the 3-year increasing by 6 basis points at 3.950%, and the 10-year rising 6.5 basis points to 4.283%. The 30-year saw a 5.5 basis point drop, closing at 4.600%. There was stronger selling, even with a solid 3-year auction, and some haven demand began to fade as dip buyers emerged in the stock market. The dollar closed slightly off its lows at 103.375, while oil ended the day up 0.8% at $66.50 per barrel. Gold also saw an increase of 0.96%, reaching $2916.49 per ounce.
European Stocks Poised for Stronger Open

European stocks were expected to open stronger after Trump sought to reassure investors about the outlook for the US economy. Furthermore, Ukraine agreed to a proposal for a 30-day truce with Russia, giving markets some hope for geopolitical stability. Despite these developments, markets remain nervous about the future, with concerns over sticky inflation, Trump’s tariff policy, and the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts all weighing heavily on investor sentiment.
The VIX, a gauge of stock market volatility, remains elevated near its highest level since August. Similarly, measures of volatility in the US Treasury market are at their highest levels since November. With economic growth in the U.S. uncertain, market participants are feeling the pressure.
Geopolitical and Economic Risks: The EU Responds

In response to the new US tariffs on steel and aluminium, the European Union announced it would impose duties on American goods worth €26 billion ($28.3 billion). The European Commission’s swift action underscores the growing global trade tensions and the potential for further escalation.
Trump's Economic Strategy: A Mixed Picture
President Trump sought to calm recession fears, declaring, “I don’t see it at all. I think this country’s going to boom.” He added that market fluctuations are natural, stating, “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down. But you know what, we have to rebuild our country.” While the president's optimism contrasts with market fears, analysts remain cautious, particularly given the increasing uncertainty about US economic growth and the potential consequences of the ongoing trade wars.
In a meeting with top executives, Trump stressed the importance of speeding up the approval process for environmental regulations and hinted at plans to announce a major electricity project soon. He also suggested that companies manufacturing in the US could benefit from reduced business taxes.
Markets Look to Inflation Data
Investors are also closely watching the US consumer inflation reading, set to be released later in the day. The CPI is expected to advance by 0.3% in February, following a 0.5% increase at the start of the year. Analysts are concerned that if inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve may lack the flexibility to cut interest rates, especially if Trump's economic policies lead to a sharp slowdown in growth.
Commodities: Oil and Gold on the Rise
In commodities, oil extended its gains after the US revised its global oversupply forecast. Gold continued its upward momentum, supported by safe-haven demand amid market uncertainty.
Final Thoughts: Tariffs, Fed Policy, and Market Volatility

As we move forward into 2025, one key question remains: Do tariffs matter more than the Fed's policies for US stock markets?
The answer may depend on how markets react to future trade developments, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve’s actions. As the market navigates this volatile environment, investors will need to stay vigilant and adaptable, ready to respond to the ever-evolving landscape of tariffs, inflation, and economic growth.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 11th March 2025.


Recession Fears Grow as Market Sell-Off Deepens.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Recession fears escalated following weekend comments from President Donald Trump, who described the US as being in a "period of transition" when questioned about economic risks. Concerns over tariffs and their global economic impact have heightened uncertainty and weakened investor confidence. A JPMorgan model recently indicated a 31% market-implied probability of a US recession, while a similar Goldman Sachs model suggests rising recession risks. Meanwhile, disappointing earnings guidance from major firms, including big tech companies, has fueled a bearish market outlook.


Broader market fears are compounding the downturn. Investors remain wary of economic recession signals, exacerbated by trade uncertainties and shifting fiscal policies. The S&P 500 has erased its post-election gains, and speculative assets—including crypto-linked stocks and ETFs—are facing aggressive sell-offs.


Stock Market Plunge: Major Indexes in the Red


The NASDAQ tumbled -4.0%, while the S&P 500 dropped -2.70%, and the Dow Jones declined -2.08%, pushing major indexes into negative territory for the year. Global equities also suffered sharp declines.





Amid this turmoil, Treasury yields fell as investors sought safe-haven assets, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in June. The 2-year yield dropped -11.6 bps to 3.883%, while the 10-year yield slipped -8.5 bps to 4.218%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) firmed slightly to 103.926, recovering from its session low of 103.559, the weakest level since November.





Commodities Struggle Amid Market Volatility


Despite Wall Street’s sell-off, gold remained flat at $2,888 per ounce, failing to gain traction as a safe-haven asset. Oil prices also dipped by -0.26% to $65.86 per barrel, reflecting broader economic concerns.


Oil tracked equity markets and risk assets amid concerns that tariffs and other measures could stunt growth in the world’s largest economy. Oil has fallen nearly 20% from its mid-January high as Trump’s tariff hikes and push to cut federal spending darken the economic outlook for the largest oil producer and consumer. Other bearish factors include OPEC+ plans to increase supply and weakening demand in China, where refiners are being urged to shift away from producing key fuels like diesel and gasoline.


US Energy Secretary Chris Wright provided some bullish sentiment, stating that the Trump administration is prepared to enforce US sanctions on Iranian oil production. He made the remarks at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston on Monday.


Executives from major oil producers—including Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, and Saudi Aramco—expressed strong support for Trump’s energy dominance agenda at the gathering. Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy projected oil prices to range between $60 and $80 per barrel over the next few years.





Key US Economic Data Releases This Week


Investors are bracing for significant economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains focused on inflation, Tuesday’s JOLTS report could drive market reactions amid heightened recession concerns.


In December, job openings declined -556K to 7.6 million, near the lowest level since January 2021. The opening rate has also fallen to 4.5%, down from 5.3% a year ago. Meanwhile, the quit rate—a key measure of labour market confidence—held at 2.0%, compared to 3.0% at its peak.


Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Shift


Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Shift
Fed funds futures indicate expectations for three quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, as economic slowdown concerns overshadow inflation fears. The futures market now anticipates the first rate cut in June, with the implied rate reflecting -30 bps in cuts. September pricing suggests -59 bps, while December signals -78 bps in total easing. However, the Fed remains in its blackout period ahead of its March 18-19 meeting.


Tech Stocks Hit Hard as Nasdaq 100 Falls 3.8%
The Nasdaq 100 suffered its worst single-day decline since October 2022, falling -3.8%. At intraday lows, the index was down -4.7%, erasing more than $1 trillion in market value.


Key factors driving the sell-off include tariff-related uncertainty, declining confidence in AI spending, and disappointing inflation and labour data. The so-called "Magnificent 7" tech stocks, which led the recent bull market, experienced steep losses.


Among the biggest losers were:


Tesla (-15.4%) – its worst day since September 2020 amid falling sales and concerns over CEO Elon Musk’s focus on the company.
MicroStrategy (-16.7%)
AppLovin (-12%)
Palantir (-10.1%)
Atlassian (-9.6%)


Broader Market Impact: Treasury Yields Drop as Safe-Haven Demand Rises


As recession fears mount, Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield hitting its lowest level this year. This decline reflects investors' growing preference for safer assets.


On the risk-asset front, Bitcoin plummeted to nearly $77,000, marking its lowest level since November, as investors moved away from speculative assets amid economic uncertainty.


Cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been hit hard. Among the biggest losers were two leveraged ETFs tied to Bitcoin-holding firm MicroStrategy, both of which dropped over 30% in a single day. Additionally, an ETF doubling the daily returns of Robinhood Markets Inc.—a favoured brokerage among crypto traders—plummeted 40%. Leveraged Bitcoin funds fell approximately 20%, while those focused on Ethereum declined 26% amid the broader digital asset selloff.


The downturn highlights growing uncertainty in the crypto market, particularly as speculation surrounding regulatory policies and economic conditions intensifies. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies initially surged post-election, driven by optimism over potential policy shifts.


With key economic reports and the Fed meeting approaching, markets remain on edge. Recession fears, tech sell-offs, and shifting rate-cut expectations continue to drive volatility. Investors will closely watch upcoming data releases to gauge economic resilience and potential Federal Reserve actions in the coming months.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 10th March 2025.


SNP500 Hits a 6-Month Low: Trade Policy & Recession Fears Weigh on Market`s.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The SNP500 completes a 3-week decline and falls to its lowest price since September 2024. The price continues to remain under pressure from President Trump’s trade policy. In addition to this, investors are becoming increasingly cautious about a potential US recession.


SNP500 - Trade Policy and The Federal Reserve’s View On The Economy


The US Non-Farm Employment data on Friday read lower than what analysts were expecting. However, the data does not yet indicate a recession. Investors are increasingly showing a lower risk appetite and cautiousness due to Trump’s trade policy on China, Mexico and Canada. The NFP Change read 151,000, 8,000 lower than predictions and the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1%.


The poor price movement is more driven by comments from the US President. Yesterday evening on Fox News, the US President addressed concerns about a potential US recession, advising the economy will undergo ‘a period of transition.’ However, some see this as a subtle warning of a short economic downturn. Though the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is taking a different tone and looking to reassure the market.





Mr Jerome Powell advises the FOMC is not expecting or worried about a US recession. ‘The US economy remains in a strong position despite heightened uncertainty,’ Powell stated at a University of Chicago event. He also said that sentiment readings have been a reliable tool for predicting consumption growth in recent years. ‘There is no need to rush, we are in a good position to wait for more clarity,’ was his answer to questions about interest rates.


On the one hand, the SNP500 may witness support from the positive comments from the Fed regarding the economy. He also clarified that certain economic indicators are not predicting a recession regardless of the lower figures. However, the comments on interest rates and keeping them unchanged for a longer period can pressure the price of the index.


Will The SNP500 Continue Declining?


The FedWatch tool indicated a 92% chance of a pause in this month’s Fed Rate Decision, but the figure has risen to 97%. If the possibility of a rate cut continues to be unlikely in the near future, the SNP500 may continue to remain under pressure. Currently, the VIX, an index used as an indication of risk, is trading more than 4.00% higher. For this reason, the VIX continues to indicate a poor performance in the short-term.


Asian and European indices are trading lower this morning as are US indices. As a result, the performance of the global stock market shows a ‘risk off’ sentiment.


SNP500 - Technical Analysis


The price of the SNP500 is currently trading 0.73% lower and gains bearish momentum as the European market opens. In the 2-hour timeframe, the price is trading below the main Moving Averages and VWAP. The index also remains within the ‘sell’ zone of the RSI and MACD. On the 3-minute chart, the price remains below the 200-bar SMA and sell signals may continue to materialize for as long as the price remains below this level.





Key Takeaway Points:


* The SNP500 has declined for three consecutive weeks, hitting its lowest level since September 2024. The main cause of pressure is from Trump’s trade policies and recession concerns.
* Weaker-than-expected US employment data raised caution. However, the Fed reassured markets, stating there is no imminent recession and no rush to adjust interest rates.
* The FedWatch tool now shows a 97% chance of a rate pause, reducing hopes for near-term cuts.
* Technical indicators suggest continued bearish momentum, with the index trading below key moving averages and remaining in the sell zone on RSI.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 7th March 2025.


How Will Gold React After Today’s Non-Farm Employment Change?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


As the US employment data approaches, Gold continues to trade sideways showing range-bound trading conditions. This is primarily due to investors waiting for further data to determine Gold’s intrinsic value. How will today’s Non-Farm Payroll release influence the price of Gold?


Will Gold Break Out of Its Range After Today’s NFP Release?


The Non-Farm Employment Change will be in the spotlight as investors expect the figure to remain relatively low. However, traders are also focused on the Unemployment Rate and Average Monthly Earnings. If this afternoon’s employment data reads similar to current expectations, the price of Gold may continue witnessing range-bound trading conditions. In this scenario, the average price of the past three days would be key. The average price is currently $2,913.70.





Whereas, if the NFP indicates an employment sector which continues to show resilience and strong data, the price of Gold may witness a decline. This is mainly due to strong employment data strengthening the USD, boosting the US stocks, and reducing 2025 rate cuts. If the price of Gold is to decline, Moving Averages indicate the price could fall between $2,899.00 and $2,906.75 in the short term. However, this would depend on how much stronger the employment data is.


On the other hand, if the Unemployment Rate rises and the Non-Farm Employment Change falls below 155,000, Gold could quickly regain momentum. The weaker employment data would increase the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March or could make a cut certain for May 2025. As a result, the weaker US Dollar could support Gold as well as the market’s lower risk appetite. Gold’s safe haven status can come into play if data is significantly weaker.


US Employment Sector


Yesterday’s labour market data showed initial jobless claims rose to 221,000, lower than the expected 234,000 and the previous 242,000. The four-week average increased slightly to 224,250, while total benefit recipients climbed from 1.855 million to 1.897 million, exceeding the 1.88 million forecast. However, the main negativity came from the ADP Employment Change which fell to 77,000, the lowest in three years.


The labour market remains under pressure, showing signs of cooling. If Friday’s federal data confirms this trend, the chances of Gold reaching the $3,000 target set by Wall Street increases.


China Continues Boosting Gold Demand!


China has launched a pilot program allowing ten national insurance companies to invest in gold through standard contracts, limited to 1% of their available assets. The country continues to be one of the countries driving demand for the commodity significantly higher along with Russia, India and Turkey. With industry revenues exceeding $700 billion, even modest investments could boost global demand for gold by 1.5–2.0% according to reports.


Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis


The White House announced a one-month delay on the 25% tariff for vehicles under the USMCA trade agreement. Economists also advise that the US is looking to negotiate with both Canada and Mexico on trade policies. If an agreement is made, the price of Gold may decline due to a stronger US Dollar and higher market sentiment. Currently, the US Dollar Index trades 0.37% lower and is the worst-performing currency of the day which is a positive for Gold.


In terms of technical analysis and price action, the asset has been witnessing range-bound conditions between $2,891 and $2,929.85. If these conditions are to continue the average price of $2,913.70 will be key and may be continuously hit. However, the price remains slightly above the 75-Bar EMA and 100-Bar SMA indicating a slight bullish bias. The instrument is also trading above the VWAP and RSI 50.00 level which is another positive for bullish traders.


Key Takeaway Points:


* Gold remains range-bound as investors await US employment data, with the NFP release likely to determine its next move. Analysts expect the US to add a further 159,000 jobs and the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.00%.
* Strong employment data could strengthen the US Dollar and push Gold lower. While weaker data may boost Gold by increasing Fed rate cut expectations.
* China’s new gold investment program and ongoing demand from Russia, India, and Turkey could further drive global gold prices higher.
* Technical indicators suggest a slightly bullish bias, but Gold remains within a defined range between $2,891 and $2,929.85, with $2,913.70 as a key level.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 6th March 2025.


The Euro is on The Rise But Is the Currency Overbought?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The Euro rose more than 4% over four days making it the currency’s best performance since COVID lockdowns. The upward price movement is primarily driven by the European bond market which saw its worst day since the 1990s. However, investors are now evaluating whether the Euro is overbought.


Why Is the Euro Increasing in Value?


The Euro's rise is driven by the EU's new ‘re-arm’ plans, announced by the European Commission President. This is in response to the US suspending military aid to Ukraine. Analysts believe increased military spending will strengthen the Euro in the short term, but its impact may fade, especially if the Ukraine-Russia conflict ends. The US is looking to achieve this by halting aid and no longer sharing military intelligence.





In addition, the German Bond fell and witnessed their worst day in almost 30 years. As a result the higher bond yields also continue to support the Euro. Currently, the Euro Index is trading 0.09% higher and is only witnessing a decline against the Japanese Yen. However, the price movement of the Euro will also depend on the European Central Bank and potential Trump Tariffs.


Economists remain convinced that Trump's tariff threats are serious and will be imposed on the EU. Just last week, he announced that Washington will impose 25% tariffs on Europe-made ‘cars and all other things’. On April 2nd, Washington plans to introduce another round of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, adding to those already in effect. Germany remains particularly vulnerable, as a large portion of its industry relies on exports to the US. This can potentially have a negative effect on the Euro and the European stock market.


Is the European Central Bank a Risk for the Euro?


The European Central Bank is due to announce its rate decision this afternoon and conduct a press conference thereafter. The ECB may potentially aim to calm the market after German Bonds took a hit. If the ECB remains dovish and also reassures the market of the Eurozone’s fiscal and monetary policy, the Euro can retrace in the short term. Analysts currently advise today’s ECB meeting will most likely be the most interesting in years and the most unpredictable.


Markets are expecting a rate of 2.65% from the ECB. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe the ECB will maintain its "dovish" stance in March and April to support the economy, especially as inflation slowed to 2.4% in February from 2.5% the previous month, nearing the 2.0% target. If the ECB advice rates are likely to continue falling in 2025, the Euro will struggle to maintain bullish momentum.


EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators


The EURUSD is still witnessing indications of bullish price movement on the 2-hour chart and fundamentals also support the upward price movement. However, simultaneously, the price is obtaining indications the currency is overbought in the short to medium term. The EURUSD is trading above the overbought level on the RSI and is obtaining a divergence signal on most timeframes.


Therefore, the possibility of the price being overbought and retracing remains, but the price action will depend on the ECB. Until the ECB’s rate decision and press conference, the average price at 1.08000 will be key as it has been so far today.


Key Takeaway Points:


* The Euro surged over 4% in four days, its best performance since COVID lockdowns, driven by European bond market turmoil.
* The EU’s ‘re-arm’ plans and rising German bond yields boost the Euro, but US tariffs and ECB decisions may impact its trend.
* The ECB’s upcoming rate decision and monetary policy stance could shape short-term price movements, with a dovish approach expected.
* Despite strong fundamentals, RSI overbought levels and divergence signals suggest a possible retracement, depending on the ECB.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 04th March 2025.


Tariffs and OPEC+ Drive Oil Prices Lower.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Crude Oil prices fell 0.70% on Tuesday declining closer to the asset’s main support level. OPEC’s latest announcement has been one of the main drivers of lower prices. OPEC, which produces 40% of the world’s Crude Oil, surprisingly has increased oil production. However, other economic factors are also triggering a lower demand.


OPEC Increases Supply Pressuring Prices


OPEC+ confirms it will increase production and market output in 2025 despite prices declining for six consecutive weeks. The move from OPEC is primarily driven by pressure from the US administration to not purposely look to lower production in order to keep prices high.


OPEC+ will boost oil production by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, causing crude prices to drop. The move has become possible with Russia expecting the Ukraine-Russia conflict to end in 2025 and the US’s more favourable approach towards Russia and Saudi Arabia. This marks the first of several monthly increases, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026 after a two-year pause.


The higher output will increase supply and can significantly change the balance between supply and demand. As a result, Crude Oil prices have fallen, particularly as economic data globally has taken a hit over the past month. Over the past six weeks, Crude Oil prices have fallen by more than 10%. However, the move by OPEC is related solely to the supply within the market. Simultaneously, trade wars are also worrying traders about how demand may change in the upcoming months.





US Turn Up The Heat on Trade Wars


The US tariffs on Mexico and Canada are now officially active, taking the level of tariffs to its highest level since the 1980s. President Trump has also advised the US to add a further 10% tariff on China in addition to the 10% announced in January. As a result, experts believe the global economy is likely to witness shockwaves in the short to medium term. This can also be seen in the stock market which has fallen 5% over the past 3 weeks.


The economic slowdown is catching up with rising inflation and tariffs which are put into place. Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next moves is growing with some economists advising the Fed may be pressured into taking earlier. In response to the additional tariffs, China is vowing to take countermeasures to protect its producers. Warren Buffett called the tariffs an extra tax on people with little economic benefit.


Weaker economic activity and a lower risk appetite within the market are known to pressure prices significantly. During the previous Trump administration and ‘trade tariff policy’ the price of Crude oil fell 13%.


Crude Oil - Technical Analysis


The price of Crude Oil in the longer term is obtaining indication the price may decline. On a monthly chart, the price forms a clear descending triangle which is known to hold a bearish bias. On the 2-hour chart, the price is also trading below the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average, below the VWAP and below the neutral areas of most oscillators. For this reason, momentum is indicating downward price movement.


However, the main concern for bearish traders is the support level which is sitting at $66.70 per barrel. The support level is currently 1.50% points away from the current price. In order for sell signals to materialise in the short term, traders will be monitoring if the price can break below $67.69.


[imghttps://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=images/USOILDaily_Internal_6836b26f5677492bbaad085ce4b.or iginal.png[/img]


Key Takeaway Points:


* OPEC+ plans to boost production in 2025, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026, pushing crude prices lower.
* The US imposes record-high tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, raising concerns about global economic stability and market declines. Crude Oil prices decline as a result.
* Rising tariffs and inflation add uncertainty, with economists speculating the Fed may act sooner than expected.
* Technical analysis shows a bearish trend, but the price of Crude Oil is also nearing the key support levels at $66.70 per barrel.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


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Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 25th February 2025.


Markets on Edge as Trump’s Tariff Plans Shake Global Trade and Investor Sentiment.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Financial markets continue to experience heightened volatility as US President Donald Trump reaffirms plans to impose tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, a move expected to take effect next week. However, scepticism remains, as such tariffs on essential goods like propane and avocados would have an immediate and visible impact on US consumers. Current polls indicate only 32% of American voters approve of Trump’s handling of inflation, adding further uncertainty to market sentiment.


President Donald Trump announced a one-month delay on tariff hikes for Canadian and Mexican imports, further escalating tensions. Additionally, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports linked to fentanyl production has heightened trade concerns. Market sentiment has been impacted, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropping by 10% in the past month due to fears over inflation and tariffs.


Asian Markets and US-China Tensions


Asian markets suffered significant declines, particularly in Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, as Trump’s new directives on curbing Chinese investments raised concerns. His administration is also pushing for stricter semiconductor export controls, a move that could further strain US-China relations. The latest measures include discussions with Japan and the Netherlands to limit maintenance support for semiconductor equipment used in China.


Despite initial losses, Chinese technology stocks rebounded, with mainland investors injecting over $1 billion into Hong Kong stocks. This underscores Beijing’s commitment to achieving technological self-sufficiency, a priority for President Xi Jinping in the ongoing tech rivalry with the U.S. While Chinese internet giants had recently enjoyed a rally, Trump’s renewed restrictions introduced fresh geopolitical risks, weighing on investor confidence.


US Stock Market Struggles Amid Tariff Uncertainty


Stocks declined, and US Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in over two months as concerns mounted over Trump’s tariff plans and investment restrictions on China. European equity index futures pointed to a weaker open following a selloff in US stocks. Meanwhile, Chinese shares experienced whipsaw movements, and the Dollar weakened for a second consecutive day. With only a month into his presidency, investors are increasingly cautious about Trump’s policies and their potential impact on economic growth. This uncertainty has driven a flight to safe-haven assets, with gold surging 12% since the start of the year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials have reiterated their stance of maintaining current interest rates, citing persistent inflationary pressures.


US stocks continued to slide on Monday following last week’s sharp losses. The S&P 500 dipped 0.5% to 5,983.25, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2% to 19,286.92. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.1% to 43,461.21. Berkshire Hathaway climbed 4.1% after reporting strong operating profits, yet Warren Buffett’s firm remains cautious, holding $334.2 billion in unused cash. Starbucks gained 1.3% after announcing 1,100 corporate job cuts to streamline operations under CEO Brian Niccol.


In Japan, trading houses saw a surge in stock prices after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway signalled plans to increase its holdings. Mitsubishi Corp. led the rally, climbing 9.2%—its biggest gain in a year—while Marubeni Corp. and Mitsui & Co. also posted strong advances. Buffett’s interest in Japanese trading houses underscores their diversification across industries, making them resilient to market fluctuations.


Nvidia’s Earnings and AI Market Disruptions


Nvidia, a major driver of the AI boom, is set to release earnings on Wednesday. The market is watching closely after China’s DeepSeek announced an AI model that rivals US technology without requiring high-end chips. This development has sparked concerns about demand for AI-related infrastructure, causing Nvidia shares to drop 3.1%, weighing on the S&P 500.





Commodities and Corporate Movements


The commodity sector also faced significant developments, particularly in the cobalt market. A surprise four-month export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world’s largest cobalt producer, sent shockwaves through the industry. The move aims to curb global oversupply, but it has also raised concerns about supply chain disruptions in the battery and alloy industries.


Gold Prices Retreat as Investors Take Profits


Gold prices eased after hitting fresh record highs, as investors took profits amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and growing haven demand. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,937.65 per ounce. Gold-backed ETFs saw their largest net inflows since 2022, fueled by market uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and economic outlook. Lower Treasury yields also contributed to gold’s strength after a well-received two-year note auction. Analysts from ANZ Banking Group noted increasing physical flows into gold ETFs as investors seek safe-haven assets.


US crude oil gained 52 cents to $71.22 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed 0.7% to $74.75 per barrel. In currency markets, the US dollar weakened slightly against the Japanese yen at 149.50, while the Euro strengthened to $1.0473. Bitcoin, often viewed as a “Trump trade,” also slid amid the uncertainty.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 24th February 2025.


German Markets Surge as Friedrich Merz Set To Be Chancellor, Euro Gains on Fiscal Shift.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


* Germany’s stock index futures and the euro rallied after opposition leader Friedrich Merz secured victory.
* Investors expect a shift toward increased government spending.
* US-China trade tensions rise as Trump tightens restrictions on Chinese investments.
* AI optimism fuels Chinese tech stocks despite regulatory concerns.
* Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday is expected to impact market volatility.


German Markets React to Election Results


Germany’s stock market and currency experienced a sharp rally in Asian trading after conservative leader Friedrich Merz won the country’s federal election. This victory aligns with pre-election polls and signals a potential departure from Germany’s traditionally strict fiscal policies.


Futures tied to the DAX Index surged as much as 1.5% on Monday, recovering from early losses in a session marked by thin trading volume. Meanwhile, the euro strengthened against most major currencies, climbing 0.7% against the U.S. dollar.


Market analysts believe Merz’s leadership could mark the end of Germany’s tight fiscal stance, with expectations that his administration will prioritize economic stimulus. This shift comes at a critical time, as Europe’s largest economy grapples with sluggish growth, geopolitical uncertainties, and the threat of a global trade war under U.S. President Donald Trump.


"Political stability and increased fiscal spending are key market drivers following the election," said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin.
The euro’s strength also reflects optimism that Merz will form a government quickly, which wasn’t a widely held expectation before the election.


"If Merz successfully builds a stable coalition, EURUSD could move toward 1.06," noted David Forrester, senior foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Agricole CIB Singapore.





US-China Trade Tensions Intensify


While European markets gained, US-China trade tensions escalated as Trump ordered stricter regulations on Chinese investments in key sectors, including technology, energy, and infrastructure. The move is part of a broader strategy to limit China’s influence in strategic industries. Although not legally binding, the directive strengthens oversight by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a panel responsible for reviewing foreign acquisitions. JPMorgan strategists warned that this decision could reverse gains in Chinese tech stocks, which had rallied earlier in the year.


Despite geopolitical headwinds, Chinese technology stocks have posted strong gains this year, largely driven by optimism in artificial intelligence (AI) and key policy shifts. The market remains under-owned by global investors, suggesting potential for further capital inflows. The growing AI industry has helped offset risks from US tariffs, with investor sentiment remaining bullish on leading Chinese firms like Alibaba and Tencent.


Chinese officials reacted strongly, with Vice Premier He Lifeng raising concerns about Trump’s recent 10% tariff hike on Chinese goods in a call with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Additionally, sources revealed that Trump’s administration urged Mexico to impose tariffs on Chinese imports as part of broader trade negotiations.


Despite these challenges, investor focus remains on Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, a key event that could drive market volatility.


Gold Nears Record Highs on Inflation and Central Bank Demand


Gold prices held near $2,940 an ounce, just shy of last week’s record, as ETF inflows surged and the US dollar weakened. The precious metal is on its longest winning streak since 2020, fueled by rising inflation expectations and mounting geopolitical uncertainties under Trump’s administration.


Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target to $3,100, citing strong central-bank demand and increased ETF holdings.
Lower US Treasury yields have also boosted bullion’s appeal, with traders now expecting the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in July rather than September. Markets will closely watch Friday’s inflation data, a key indicator for Fed policy direction.


Final Thoughts


Markets are reacting to a mix of political and economic shifts, with Germany’s election outcome boosting European equities while US-China trade tensions create uncertainty for Asian markets. Investors will be closely monitoring fiscal policy changes in Germany, Nvidia’s earnings, and further trade developments for insights into market direction.


For more financial market insights and updates, stay tuned.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 21st February 2025.


European PMI Disappoint, Weighing on Euro Before German Elections



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The Euro is the first currency to witness the volatility on this month’s PMI reports. The French, German and British PMI data have resulted in the Euro being the worst-performing currency of the European Session so far. However, will the Euro continue to decline throughout the day?


European Purchasing Managers’ Indexes


The French Purchasing Managers Index was the first European index to be made public. The release resulted in the Euro instantly declining 0.24%. The main concern from the French data was the Services PMI which fell from 48.2 to 44.5. Previously the market was expecting the data to remain more or less unchanged. The weak data triggered the decline which came to a halt after Germany’s PMI was released.





The German Manufacturing PMI read 0.5 points higher than previous expectations and the Services PMI was 0.2 points lower. The data from Germany was a relief for Euro investors and the price rose 0.12% higher. However, traders should note that the price of the EURUSD continues to remain 0.20% lower than yesterday’s close.


The price of the EURUSD will now depend on the PMI data from the US. The value of the US Dollar will depend on its PMI release this afternoon and the Consumer Sentiment Index. Analysts expect both the US Services and Manufacturing PMI data to remain above the 50.00 level in the expansion zone.


German Elections 2 Days Away


Germany is set to hold a general election this Sunday, February 23rd, following the collapse of the coalition of social democrats, liberals, and greens. Given the country's highly proportional electoral system, German polls provide a strong indication of potential government formations post-election. The main concern for Germany is the AFD party who are Far-Right Nationalists.


Currently, ahead in the polls are CDU (centre-right), and AFD (far right), followed by the SPD (centre-left). Traders should note that the results of the elections are likely to trigger strong volatility on Monday, but also influence volatility today. Economists may become further concerned if the far-right gains power for the first time due to uncertainty. If the government, similar to France, is unable to form a coalition, this would also be a concern for the Eurozone.


Furthermore, the Euro this week is also under pressure from comments from members of the European Central Bank. ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said to journalists that officials need not slow interest rate cuts, as January's 2.5% inflation is still expected to reach the 2.0% target this year. He also advised the European economy is weaker than previously expected.


EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators


The EURUSD is trading above the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and 100-bar Simple Moving Average on the 2-hour chart. However, the price is moving away from the key resistance level at 1.05058 indicating the price is losing momentum. The short-term volatility is indicating the price is retracing downwards. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price is trading below the 200-bar SMA and is also forming clear lower lows and highs.


Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index is trading above the 200-bar SMA on the 5-minute chart confirming no current conflicts. Currently, the US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day attempting to regain losses from the past 2 weeks. Watch today’s Live Analysis Session for more signals as they develop!


Key Takeaway Points:


* Weak French Services PMI triggered an initial Euro decline, but German PMI provide a slight relief. However, EURUSD remains lower than yesterday’s close.
* The Euro’s direction now depends on the US PMI reports, with analysts expecting US data to stay in expansion territory.
* Sunday's German election could drive volatility, especially if the far-right AFD gains power or if coalition formation proves difficult.
* ECB official Fabio Panetta suggested no need to slow rate cuts, citing weaker-than-expected economic performance and expected inflation decline.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.