HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 18th September 2025.


Global Markets Digest: Fed Cuts Rates, Asia Bonds Mixed, and Tech Leads Equities.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Asian bond markets opened mixed on Thursday, reflecting investor caution after the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2025. Chinese government bond yields edged lower as traders bet that US easing could give Beijing more room to support growth. Japanese government bonds saw mild selling pressure as the yen firmed and investors reassessed the Bank of Japan’s next steps. South Korean and Australian yields were largely unchanged, highlighting a wait-and-see mood ahead of other central bank meetings.


Fed Cuts Rates but Stays Cautious


The Federal Reserve trimmed the federal funds target range by 25 bp (4.25%–4.00%), its first reduction since December. The vote was 11–1, with newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 50-bp cut. The Fed’s updated projections (“dot plot”) suggest an additional 50 bp of easing in 2025, but the committee remains divided: six policymakers see no further cuts this year, nine expect one more, and one anticipates larger reductions up to 125 bp.


Chair Powell framed the move as a “risk management” cut, stressing a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach. He highlighted that the rapid slowdown in supply and demand in the labor market was the central concern, while economic activity remains resilient. Consumption is holding up, and manufacturing continues to benefit from AI investment. Powell also noted the Fed does not have a “right or wrong” level of asset prices and does not currently see structural vulnerabilities.


Despite the easing, Powell pushed back against market expectations for aggressive cuts, noting there was no widespread support for a 50-bp reduction at this meeting. He emphasized that policy decisions will remain data-driven, leaving markets uncertain about the exact pace of future easing.


Market Reaction


Asia Bonds: Chinese yields eased; Japanese yields ticked higher; South Korea and Australia largely unchanged.
US Treasuries: Yields initially fell but reversed. The 2-year closed 5 bp higher at 3.553% (after touching 3.465%), while the 10-year finished up 5.5 bp at 4.083% (after 3.987%).
Dollar: DXY rebounded to 97.027 from an intraday low of 96.218.
Equities: Dow Jones +0.57%, S&P 500 –0.10%, NASDAQ –0.33%.





Asia-Pacific: Economic Data and Central Bank Moves


New Zealand: Q2 GDP contracted 0.9% q/q, weaker than expected. Governor Hawkesby indicated faster cuts could follow if conditions remain soft. Markets now expect a 50-bp cut in October to 2.5%, followed by 2.25% in November, pressuring NZDUSD.
Hong Kong: Monetary Authority lowered its base rate 25 bp in line with the Fed.
China: People’s Bank kept its seven-day reverse repo rate at 1.4%, signaling no urgency to ease.
Australia: August labor figures showed a net loss of jobs, mainly full-time positions. Unemployment held at 4.2%, while participation slipped. The weak labor tone marginally advanced expectations for the next RBA cut, though no action is expected in September. AUDUSD dipped initially but recovered most losses.


Crypto Update


The US SEC approved new spot crypto ETF standards, allowing faster approvals (about 75 days) for products tied to Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin. Launches could begin as early as October, providing fresh momentum for the crypto market.


Bottom Line


The September Fed meeting reflects a shift from a high-for-longer stance to a balanced, data-dependent approach, but it stops short of signaling an aggressive cutting cycle. US labor market risks remain the key driver of policy, while inflation remains above target. Asian bond markets, US equities, and regional central banks are all adjusting to this cautious easing narrative. Investors should expect continued volatility as markets weigh US economic data, Fed messaging, and central bank decisions across the globe.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th September 2025.


Gold Analysis Ahead of Tonight’s Fed Rate Decision!



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Gold prices continue to rise, pushing the commodity to a new all-time high. Investors are watching closely the upcoming Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Press Conference thereafter. Due to this event, market participants are not adding to their exposure levels until further clarity is obtained from the Federal Reserve.


As a result, Gold prices are forming a similar retracement to that seen on the 9th. What will determine if Gold’s trend will continue or if traders will start to lock in profits?



XAUUSD (Gold) 12-Hour Chart


The Federal Reserve Driving Gold Prices


Analysts widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The Chicago exchange is currently placing a 0.25% cut as a 96% possibility. If we follow traditional economics, the cut can cause only a short-term weakening of the US Dollar, as the market has largely priced in this scenario. Some economists advise that the cut alone cannot create volatility, as it is already fully priced.


However, trends will depend on updates to economic forecasts and the tone of remarks from Chairman Jerome Powell. Investors will be scrutinising Mr Powell’s press conference to obtain indications of how many cuts we will witness in 2025. The press conference will take place at 18:30 GMT.


If Powell emphasises the risks of rising inflation and that the committee is neutral on future cuts, it would signal a more cautious approach to monetary easing. Conversely, if his focus is on cooling labour and housing markets, it could suggest a more ‘dovish’ stance. If so, the market would expect a further 0.25% cut in October and again in December. There is a 74% chance of 3 rate cuts by the end of 2025. Citibank is the latest to advise that they no longer expect a 0.50% cut tonight. Instead, the bank expects a series of cuts throughout the rest of 2025.


Some officials are considering the risk of higher price pressures a greater concern than current employment trends. As a reminder, the Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% in August, up from 2.7% in July, reaching its highest level since January. On the other hand, many members of the Federal Open Market Committee are concerned about the employment sector, where the unemployment rate has again risen.


Economic data in the US is not currently painting a clear picture, with conflicting data. For example, the US Retail Sales from yesterday rose above expectations, boosting confidence in the US economy. In addition to this, the recent PMI reports also rose above expectations. However, other data gives a real cause for concern. For this reason, the Federal Reserve is largely concentrating on Inflation and Employment Data.


Other Central Banks and Gold Contracts


Markets are also closely watching the Bank of Canada’s meeting today at 15:45 (GMT+2), where the central bank may cut its rate by 25 basis points, from 2.75% to 2.50%. Tomorrow, the Bank of England meets on Thursday at 13:00 (GMT+2), followed by the Bank of Japan on Friday. Neither is expected to change policy, but the press conference will again be key.


Furthermore, according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), positions backed by real money stood at 199.305 thousand long versus 32.888 thousand short. During the week, bullish traders closed 2.491 thousand contracts, while bearish traders closed only 0.046 thousand.


Further, the bias remains in favour of an upward trend, but profit-taking amongst buyers outnumbers sellers closing their short positions.


Key Takeaways:


* Gold prices continue to rise as investors await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and press conference. However, a retracement forms as investors are aware of the Fed clarification.
* Analysts expect a 0.25% cut, but Gold trends will depend on Powell’s tone and economic forecasts. These include inflation and employment risks.
* Gold buyers are hoping for a further 0.25% cut in October and again in December. There is a 74% chance of 3 rate cuts by the end of 2025.
* According to the CFTC's latest report, a bullish bias remains as ‘long’ contracts outnumber sellers.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th September 2025.


Gold Analysis Ahead of Tonight’s Fed Rate Decision!



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Gold prices continue to rise, pushing the commodity to a new all-time high. Investors are watching closely the upcoming Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Press Conference thereafter. Due to this event, market participants are not adding to their exposure levels until further clarity is obtained from the Federal Reserve.


As a result, Gold prices are forming a similar retracement to that seen on the 9th. What will determine if Gold’s trend will continue or if traders will start to lock in profits?



XAUUSD (Gold) 12-Hour Chart


The Federal Reserve Driving Gold Prices


Analysts widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The Chicago exchange is currently placing a 0.25% cut as a 96% possibility. If we follow traditional economics, the cut can cause only a short-term weakening of the US Dollar, as the market has largely priced in this scenario. Some economists advise that the cut alone cannot create volatility, as it is already fully priced.


However, trends will depend on updates to economic forecasts and the tone of remarks from Chairman Jerome Powell. Investors will be scrutinising Mr Powell’s press conference to obtain indications of how many cuts we will witness in 2025. The press conference will take place at 18:30 GMT.


If Powell emphasises the risks of rising inflation and that the committee is neutral on future cuts, it would signal a more cautious approach to monetary easing. Conversely, if his focus is on cooling labour and housing markets, it could suggest a more ‘dovish’ stance. If so, the market would expect a further 0.25% cut in October and again in December. There is a 74% chance of 3 rate cuts by the end of 2025. Citibank is the latest to advise that they no longer expect a 0.50% cut tonight. Instead, the bank expects a series of cuts throughout the rest of 2025.


Some officials are considering the risk of higher price pressures a greater concern than current employment trends. As a reminder, the Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% in August, up from 2.7% in July, reaching its highest level since January. On the other hand, many members of the Federal Open Market Committee are concerned about the employment sector, where the unemployment rate has again risen.


Economic data in the US is not currently painting a clear picture, with conflicting data. For example, the US Retail Sales from yesterday rose above expectations, boosting confidence in the US economy. In addition to this, the recent PMI reports also rose above expectations. However, other data gives a real cause for concern. For this reason, the Federal Reserve is largely concentrating on Inflation and Employment Data.


Other Central Banks and Gold Contracts


Markets are also closely watching the Bank of Canada’s meeting today at 15:45 (GMT+2), where the central bank may cut its rate by 25 basis points, from 2.75% to 2.50%. Tomorrow, the Bank of England meets on Thursday at 13:00 (GMT+2), followed by the Bank of Japan on Friday. Neither is expected to change policy, but the press conference will again be key.


Furthermore, according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), positions backed by real money stood at 199.305 thousand long versus 32.888 thousand short. During the week, bullish traders closed 2.491 thousand contracts, while bearish traders closed only 0.046 thousand.


Further, the bias remains in favour of an upward trend, but profit-taking amongst buyers outnumbers sellers closing their short positions.


Key Takeaways:


* Gold prices continue to rise as investors await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and press conference. However, a retracement forms as investors are aware of the Fed clarification.
* Analysts expect a 0.25% cut, but Gold trends will depend on Powell’s tone and economic forecasts. These include inflation and employment risks.
* Gold buyers are hoping for a further 0.25% cut in October and again in December. There is a 74% chance of 3 rate cuts by the end of 2025.
* According to the CFTC's latest report, a bullish bias remains as ‘long’ contracts outnumber sellers.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 15th September 2025.


Global Markets Brace for FOMC and Central Bank Showdown.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


This morning, European stock markets are edging higher after a mixed session across Asia. Gains in US stock futures signal cautious optimism as investors position themselves ahead of this week’s critical FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. In the bond market, Eurozone government bonds (EGBs) are drawing demand. The German 10-year Bund yield slipped -1.6 basis points to 2.697%, while the UK 10-year Gilt yield fell -1.8 basis points to 4.65%. French bonds lagged, with the 10-year yield nearly matching Italy’s, reflecting investor concerns about domestic politics and fiscal risks.


Across the Atlantic, US Treasury yields edged up slightly, with the 10-year rising 1.0 bp to 4.074%. In currency markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained steady at 97.50. Gold prices held firm at USD 3,640.20 per ounce, suggesting investors are still hedging against uncertainty. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil gained 0.8%, with the front-month contract trading at USD 63.04 per barrel, supported by energy demand expectations and supply-side adjustments.


ECB Outlook and Kocher’s Remarks


Attention in Europe turned to the European Central Bank (ECB) after Austrian central bank head Robert Holzmann Kocher suggested that the ECB is nearing the end of its monetary easing cycle. Speaking with the Financial Times, he argued that the ECB could pause as long as economic conditions remain stable, but emphasised flexibility if new shocks arise. His cautious stance reflects ongoing uncertainty around Eurozone inflation trends and growth projections, reinforcing the perception that policymakers are reluctant to commit to deeper cuts.


A Packed Week for Central Banks


This week is dominated by global central bank meetings, creating one of the busiest policy calendars of the year. Markets are watching decisions from the FOMC, Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Canada (BoC), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Norges Bank, as well as central banks in Indonesia and Taiwan.


With the exception of the BoJ, most central banks are either in or approaching an easing cycle, as the focus shifts from controlling inflation to addressing slowing economic growth and labour market weakness. The FOMC decision will be the most influential, with expectations firmly set on a -25 basis point cut. However, investors will scrutinise the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the dot plot, and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues about the pace and extent of further easing.


The BoC faces renewed pressure after weak labour market data and GDP contraction, while the Norges Bank may surprise with a rate cut depending on regional conditions. The BoE and BoJ are expected to remain on hold, but their guidance could provide insights into how long current policies will last.


US Federal Reserve: Policy Shift in Focus


All eyes are on the Federal Reserve as it prepares to announce its decision this Wednesday. After months on pause since the December 2024 cut, the Fed is widely expected to resume easing. The real market-moving elements will be the SEP projections, the updated dot plot, and Powell’s press conference remarks.


Markets are particularly sensitive to potential dissents among policymakers. Some, like Waller and Bowman, may push for deeper cuts, while others, including Schmid and Musalem, could argue against easing altogether. This divide underscores the Fed’s challenge: balancing weakening employment trends against stubborn inflation pressures.


Recent economic data paints a mixed picture. Payroll numbers have weakened, jobless claims have risen, and manufacturing indicators show softness. At the same time, headline CPI inflation surprised to the upside, though Powell’s shift in August toward prioritising employment concerns gave investors confidence that the Fed is leaning dovish. As a result, the consensus is now firmly behind a -25 bp cut, with expectations for further easing later in 2025.


Bank of Canada: Weak Labour Data Tips the Balance


The Bank of Canada’s decision on Wednesday is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal in months. While inflation remains above target, the sharp -65.5k decline in employment and the unemployment rate’s rise to 7.1% have heightened expectations for a cut. Alongside weak GDP growth (-1.6% in Q2) and persistent softness in manufacturing and services PMIs, the case for renewed easing is strong.


Markets broadly expect a -25 bp cut to 2.50%, with many anticipating more reductions before year-end. Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference will be critical for forward guidance, as traders look for hints of a dovish bias and clarity on whether the BoC sees this as the start of a sustained easing cycle.


Eurozone: Waiting for Clarity


Following the latest ECB meeting, President Christine Lagarde reiterated that policy rates are now on hold. While the dovish camp, led by French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau, wants to keep options open for another cut, the baseline expectation is stability in the near term.


Markets remain sensitive to geopolitical risks, including the Russia–Ukraine conflict, Middle East tensions, and French political uncertainty. This week’s key data, German ZEW Investor Sentiment, Eurozone August CPI (final reading), and industrial production, will test confidence in the Eurozone’s fragile recovery.


UK: Bank of England Stays Cautious


The BoE announcement on Thursday is expected to deliver no change in rates. The focus will instead be on the voting breakdown and the tone of Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments. With inflation still above the 2% target and growth data sending mixed signals, policymakers are likely to stick to their “gradual and careful” approach.


The economic calendar features UK CPI, labour market data, and retail sales, all of which could shape expectations for the pace of future cuts. Inflation is projected to hold at 3.8% y/y, while the labour market shows signs of easing pressures as companies reduce hiring amid rising costs.


Switzerland, Japan, and China: Additional Market Drivers


Switzerland: Talks on a trade deal with the US continue, with proposals such as building a gold refinery in the US gaining attention.
Japan: The BoJ meeting is unlikely to shift policy. However, with leadership changes and upcoming elections, investors will watch national CPI and trade data closely for signs of pressure on the Bank’s stance.
China: Data on retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment will highlight whether the world’s second-largest economy is stabilising or slipping further into stagnation. Weak July numbers, coupled with property sector strains and tariff headwinds, point to continued challenges.[/b]


Key Takeaway for Investors


This week’s convergence of central bank meetings, economic data, and geopolitical developments sets the stage for heightened volatility across global markets. Traders are watching for direction in currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD), commodities (gold, oil), and equities, with monetary policy signals likely to dominate sentiment.


For investors, the balance between easing cycles in most major economies and lingering inflation risks will be the defining theme in shaping market opportunities for the weeks ahead.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 5th September 2025.


Global Markets Rally Ahead of Key US Jobs Data as Fed Rate Cut Bets Strengthen.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Global markets ended the week on a strong note, buoyed by mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve could soon lower interest rates following a series of disappointing US labour market indicators. Wall Street reached fresh record highs, Treasury yields slid to multi-month lows, and Asian equities continued to track higher on Friday as investors awaited the official August Nonfarm Payrolls report, due later in the day.


US Labour Market Signals Weakness


A run of employment data this week highlighted signs of cooling in the US labour market.


* ADP payrolls showed private-sector job creation slowed to just 54,000 in August, far below expectations.
* Initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June.
* The Challenger, Grey & Christmas report indicated that announced layoffs jumped to 85,979 in August, up 39% from July and the largest monthly total since 2020.
* The employment component of the ISM services survey remained in contraction territory, pointing to a softer demand for labour in key service industries.


While these reports signalled fragility, they also offered relief for bond investors. Second-quarter productivity strengthened, and unit labour costs rose modestly, reinforcing expectations that inflationary pressures may be contained. That combination fueled demand for Treasuries, sending yields down sharply. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.16% from 4.22%, its lowest in months.


Wall Street Climbs on Easing Yields


US equities rallied as falling yields reduced pressure on valuations. On Thursday:


* The S&P 500 climbed 0.8%, hitting a fresh all-time high.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 350 points (0.8%).


* The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1%, supported by gains in growth stocks.
Investors increasingly view labour market softness as a catalyst for the Fed to cut rates. A 25-basis-point cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting is now nearly fully priced in by futures markets. Analysts argue that unless job growth or wages surprise significantly to the upside in Friday’s official NFP report, the Fed is set to ease policy for the first time this year.





Asia Follows Wall Street Higher


Asian equities joined the global rally on Friday. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.9% to 42,945.16, supported by strong domestic data. Labour cash earnings rose 4.1% y/y in July, accelerating from 3.1% in June, while household spending climbed 1.4% y/y, marking a third consecutive month of growth.


Japan also welcomed positive trade developments. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday implementing a trade agreement with Japan that had been finalised in July, reducing tariffs on auto imports from 25% to 15%. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba praised the move as a step toward easing uncertainty for critical industries, particularly automobiles. The yen edged up 0.2% to 148.36 per dollar.


In China, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.5% to 25,194.85, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.4% to 3,778.95. Still, concerns remain that export growth slowed in August due to fading effects from Beijing’s earlier tariff truce with Washington and a high base of comparison from 2023.


European Data: Weak German Orders, Stronger UK Sales


European data painted a mixed picture. German factory orders slumped 2.9% m/m in July, a much weaker reading than expected, though June’s figure was revised slightly higher. Excluding large-ticket items, orders rose 0.7% m/m, but the overall trend underlined vulnerability in Europe’s largest economy. Export orders dropped 3.1%, while domestic demand fell 2.5%, reflecting the lingering impact of US tariffs and global trade uncertainty. A bright spot was the auto sector, where orders jumped 6.5%.


In the UK, retail sales outperformed expectations, climbing 0.8% m/m in July. However, June’s growth was revised down to 0.3% from 0.9%. On an annual basis, sales rose 1.1% y/y, offering some relief for a consumer sector that has struggled under high inflation and tighter monetary policy.


Crypto and Commodities Stay Cautious


Cryptocurrencies traded sideways ahead of the jobs report. Bitcoin hovered near $111,100, little changed on a 24-hour basis. Analysts said Bitcoin continues to move in tandem with equities, with macroeconomic data shaping investor expectations for liquidity conditions.


Goldman Sachs forecasts August NFP will show an increase of 60,000 jobs, below consensus estimates of 75,000, with unemployment ticking up to 4.3%, its highest since 2021. Such a reading would reinforce the case for a Fed cut and potentially support risk assets, including Bitcoin.


Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, told Decrypt that markets have “largely priced in” weak labour data, but a “Goldilocks” report with moderate job gains, stable unemployment, and contained wage growth could fuel risk-on sentiment across equities and crypto. By contrast, a sharp downside miss might spark initial risk-off moves before markets pivot back to rate-cut optimism, while a strong upside surprise would push yields and the dollar higher, hurting risk assets.





Outlook: Fed Faces Delicate Balancing Act


The Fed is under pressure to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. With core inflation still running at 3.1%, the central bank must weigh the risks of cutting rates too quickly against the need to stabilise a weakening job market.


Friday’s official Nonfarm Payrolls report from the US Labour Department will be pivotal in shaping the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets are bracing for volatility, with traders watching whether the data confirms the narrative of a gradual cooling in the labor market—or delivers an unexpected twist that shifts expectations for the pace and depth of Fed easing.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 4th September 2025.


Weak US Employment Data And The Upcoming NFP.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The US Dollar remains the day’s best-performing currency; however, significant risks remain as employment data continues to fall. The US JOLTS Job Openings fell from 7.36 million to 7.18 million. The figure is significantly lower than the previous month and analysts’ expectations. Are investors expecting the US Dollar to fall?





The court decision that US tariffs are not legal continues to be a big factor for the US Dollar. President Trump has asked the US Supreme Court to review and overturn a federal appeals court decision that struck down his April 2025 trade tariffs, which ranged from 10% to 50% on imports. The lower court ruled the tariffs unlawful, saying they exceeded the powers granted to the presidency under a 1977 law. The development is supporting the US Dollar in the short-term; however, economists advise that this will not be enough for the Dollar to maintain its momentum.


For this reason, the worrying picture which is developing within the employment sector is not having its traditional impact. However, investors note that tomorrow’s NFP data can have a significant impact. Today’s JOLTS Job Openings is known as a lagging indicator, but the fact that the figure has fallen to the lowest since March 2021 would not provide economists with confidence. In addition to this, the US also saw its Weekly Unemployment Claims rise to 237,000, higher than the previous month and projections.


Economists expect tomorrow’s Unemployment Rate to rise to 4.3% and for the NFP Change to add 75,000 jobs. If the figures do not beat projections, the US Dollar may struggle to maintain its value, similar to today.


The US Dollar is currently the best-performing currency of the day, while the worst-performing currencies are the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen. Some currency pairs, such as the USDJPY, are trading at a key resistance level, as is the US Dollar Index. For this reason, traders should be cautious if tomorrow’s NFP data prompts recession fears and more frequent interest rate cuts.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 3rd September 2025.


Global Market Turmoil: Bond Yields Surge, Gold Hits Record High.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Global financial markets came under pressure on Tuesday as rising bond yields, inflation concerns, and political uncertainty shook investor confidence. The result was a sharp selloff in equities, soaring government borrowing costs, and a flight to safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.


Bond Yields Surge to Multi-Decade Highs


US markets reopened after the Labor Day holiday to heavy selling, as an avalanche of new corporate bond issuance amplified pressure on Treasuries. Longer-dated maturities bore the brunt, with the UK’s 30-year gilt yield climbing 6 basis points to 5.692% — its highest level since 1998. The surge in yields reflected deep investor unease, leaving equity markets awash in red.


The trend extended globally:


* Japan’s 30-year government bond (JGB) yield climbed to a record 3.255%.
* The US 30-year Treasury yield approached the key 5% level.
* European government bonds also faced selling pressure, reflecting mounting fiscal and debt sustainability concerns.


In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.69% on worries about the country’s fiscal health, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific index slipped 0.4%. European equity futures pointed to a cautious open, with traders weighing risks from bond market volatility and ongoing political uncertainty in France and the UK.


Ben Bennett, Asia Head of Investment Strategy at Legal & General, noted:
"It’s a perfect storm for long-dated bonds. Fiscal deficits are huge, issuance is heavy, and Japan is no longer exporting capital to buy foreign bonds. This is becoming a major headache for governments."





Gold Soars to Fresh Record


Against this backdrop of fiscal anxiety and political uncertainty, gold surged to a historic high. The benchmark bullion price jumped beyond $3,526 per troy ounce — surpassing April’s record and marking a 34% gain since the start of the year.


The rally has been supported by a weaker dollar, expectations of a US interest rate cut, and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence after President Trump’s political interventions. Trump has openly pressured Fed Chair Jay Powell and moved to dismiss Governor Lisa Cook, heightening fears that monetary policy could be compromised.


Investor demand has also been reinforced by large inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and central bank purchases. Analysts at Goldman Sachs now forecast gold to reach $4,000 per troy ounce by mid-2026.


Silver joined the rally, climbing to $40.8 a troy ounce — its highest in 14 years — as investors broadened their search for safe-haven assets.


Sterling Slumps as UK Debt Costs Climb


The British pound posted its sharpest one-day drop since April, falling as much as 1.5% against the US dollar before stabilizing. The slide came as the UK’s 30-year gilt yield touched 5.72%, reflecting deep concerns over the country’s public finances.





Market Outlook: Jobs Data and CPI in Focus


Investors now await a series of key US economic releases:


* Job openings and private payrolls data this week.
* The August US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
* CPI inflation data on September 11, which could be decisive for the Fed.
Markets are currently pricing in an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut this month.


With global bond yields at multi-decade highs, gold at record prices, and currencies under pressure, markets are entering a highly volatile phase. Fiscal deficits, political risks, and central bank credibility are now the dominant forces shaping investor behavior.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 2nd September 2025.


Is Gold About To Retrace Downwards?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Gold reaches a new all-time high, rising to $3,508, meaning Gold has risen in total almost 28% in 2025. If Gold holds onto its recent gains, it will be set for its second-strongest performance in the past decade. The upward price movement is being driven by market expectations of rate cuts in September. The market also believes the Federal Reserve will cut rates more frequently in 2026. However, another key concern for investors is the bond building between Russia, China and India, which may put geopolitical tensions on edge.


Gold Reaches New All-Time High


The reason for Gold’s upward trend is more clearly laid out in the ‘What’s Driving Gold’s Bullish Trend And Will It Hit a New High in 2025’ article.


Monday was a national holiday, with financial institutions closed and trading volumes light. However, the day was not shy of developments prompting Gold to witness higher demand. Investors are processing Friday’s US Court of Appeals ruling, which declared tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump illegal. The court ruled that officials had improperly invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), noting that only Congress has the authority to apply this framework.


For this reason, most tariffs could now be removed, excluding sector-specific ones, reducing taxed imports from 69% to 16%. This is expected to ease inflation pressures and shape future Federal Reserve policy. However, an appeal remains possible until October 14th, with Trump warning on Truth Social that the decision will place unprecedented strain on the US economy.


Gold And The Upcoming NFP Report


A big factor which is also starting to test Gold is the risk of a recession and the new alliance in the east (Russia, China and India). Regarding the possibility of a recession or general economic slowdown, the US employment data will be key. Analysts again expect the NFP Employment Change to read below 100,000 for a second consecutive month. The NFP change has not read below this level for two consecutive months since 2021 due to COVID.


If the NFP figure indeed remains low and the Unemployment Rate increases to 4.3% or above, recession concerns are likely to return. As a result, Gold may continue to see higher demand for the upcoming weeks. In addition to this, weak employment data will likely trigger a rate cut in September, October and December. Currently, the possibility of 3 rate cuts in 2025 is 37.00%, but this may change if employment data deteriorates.


For this reason, whether investors will deem Gold as slightly overbought and if consequently a retracement will form, depends on this week’s employment data. The NFP data will determine how many rate cuts we are likely to witness and if the US economy is indeed at risk of a recession. However, a concern for day traders is the rise in the US Dollar Index, which may trigger a short-term decline.


In addition, the market is currently showing signs of a ‘risk-off’ appetite with all US indices declining as the European Trading Session opens.


Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis


Gold’s price is trading at the day’s open price as the asset declines as the European Session starts. The decline is currently forming a retracement, but is not indicating a new bearish trend. The price remains above the 75-Bar EMA, and the wave pattern continues to support buyers, maintaining control. However, the price is below the VWAP, which points to a potential retracement.


Based on the Moving Average, a retracement could potentially decline to the range between $3,425.60 to $3,446.30. However, if the price rises above $3,493.90, the price movement will start to indicate bullish momentum.



XAUUSD 12-Hour Chart


Key Takeaway Points:


* Gold hit a record high of $3,508, up nearly 28% in 2025, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts.
* US tariffs imposed by Trump were ruled illegal, easing inflation risks but raising economic uncertainty.
* Upcoming NFP data will be crucial; weak job numbers could boost recession fears and increase Gold demand.
* Despite short-term retracement risks, Gold’s overall trend remains bullish, supported by technical indicators.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 1st September 2025.


Euro Strengthens Amid Dollar Weakness, ECB Stability, and French Political Uncertainty.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The Euro is the day’s best-performing currency, while the US Dollar is currently struggling to maintain its value. Due to the momentum, the EURUSD is trading at a 9-day high after the exchange rate rose 0.33% during this morning’s Asian Session. Traders should also note that the US is currently closed for the Labour Day Bank Holiday.


EURUSD - The Euro’s Bullish Trend


The Euro continues to be 2025’s best-performing currency as investors look to mitigate risk away from the Dollar. The main alternative to the US Dollar is the Euro, which continues to be supported by the expansionary fiscal policy announced earlier in the year.


Some of the latest news impacting the Euro is coming from Germany’s inflation data and the political turmoil in France. Germany’s preliminary August inflation data showed mixed results. The consumer price index slowed to 0.1% MoM (from 0.3%) and rose to 2.2% YoY (from 2.0%), slightly above forecasts. The harmonised index also rose to 2.1% YoY, higher than expected.


While inflation ticked up, it remained close to the ECB’s 2% target, suggesting rates may stay unchanged until at least November. The data shows stability and continues to support the Euro. However, European investors are also closely monitoring the political turmoil which continues to grip France.


French Prime Minister Bayrou has announced a confidence vote scheduled for September 8th. The move was a result of the government’s inability to agree on a budget. Businesses within France are warning that political instability, which continues to reappear, including growing opposition to Bayrou’s austerity plans, can drag the country towards recession.


ECB President Christine Lagarde called a potential French government collapse ‘worrying’ for the eurozone, stressing fiscal discipline while assuring that the banking sector remains resilient. The development is not yet hurting the Euro. However, if the instability grows, economists warn that the Euro can potentially witness a different trend.


PCE Index and The US Dollar


Investors are closely watching the July personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, a key indicator for the US Federal Reserve. The index eased from 0.3% to 0.2% MoM and held steady at 2.6% YoY, while the core measure rose from 2.8% to 2.9%. Overall, inflationary pressures are building amid rising trade tariffs. However, uncertainty remains over future moves, as most officials stress that decisions will depend on incoming data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, however, signalled he expects a shift to a more dovish stance as early as next month. Currently, most economists expect 2 rate cuts in 2025.


Meanwhile, Fed official Lisa Cook, dismissed by President Trump, is challenging her removal in court, arguing it was unlawful and based on clerical errors in mortgage records. Trump has asked the court to validate his actions. The tensions between the Federal Reserve and the White House, as well as the expectations of interest rate cuts, are pressuring the US Dollar Index. The US Dollar Index has fallen 1.26% over the past 2 weeks and is pressuring the support level at 97.45.


EURUSD - Technical Analysis



EURUSD 4-Hour Chart


On most timeframes, the EURUSD is obtaining indications of a bullish trend on momentum-based indicators. However, the resistance level at 1.17310 is key and buy signals may remain weak if the level remains intact. However, the upward price movement will also largely depend on the expectations of rate cuts and the political situation in France.


Key Takeaway Points:


* The Euro is the strongest currency today, with EURUSD hitting a 9-day high amid Dollar weakness and a US holiday.
Germany’s inflation data remains near the ECB’s 2% target, supporting the Euro and signalling stable monetary policy.
* Political instability in France, including Prime Minister Bayrou’s upcoming confidence vote, is being closely monitored. However, the development has not yet pressured the Euro.
* US rate cut expectations and Fed tensions, including Lisa Cook’s legal challenge, are pressuring the Dollar.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 29th August 2025.


What’s Driving Gold’s Bullish Trend And Will It Hit a New High in 2025?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Gold increases in value for a third consecutive day as the market prices in lower interest rates. The Gross Domestic Product indicates that the US economy continues to grow, which, under usual circumstances, would not pressure the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates. However, the latest comments from the FOMC member reassured investors that rate cuts are coming despite the higher GDP figures.


The Federal Reserve and Interest Rates


The price of Gold is trading at its highest price since July 23rd after increasing 3.30% over the previous days. The bullish price movement is partially driven by the market’s risk appetite, which is becoming more shaky, but a large part is also due to the monetary policy. The latest comments from Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, are that he will vote for a 0.25% cut in September.


According to Christopher Waller, there continue to be signs of the US employment sector weakening, and he believes the Fed will act before the employment sector truly deteriorates. The employment sector is known to be a lagging factor and normally is one of the last points of the economy to react. Therefore, many members of the Federal Open Market Committee believe a proactive cut is necessary.


A big factor in the decision of the Federal Reserve will be next week’s employment data for August. Particularly, economists will be focusing on the Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate. Most members of the FOMC said their decision will depend on August’s figures. Yesterday, Christopher Waller told journalists a 25 basis point cut would suffice unless August’s employment data triggers further concerns.


Currently, Reuters survey concerns that the market expects the NFP Employment Change to read 78,000 to 80,000. The survey also confirms projections that the US Unemployment Rate will rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. The projects alone paint a worrying picture which can support the price of Gold. However, if the figures are weaker, a 50-basis-point rate cut would become a possibility, and Gold may experience significant gains.


Lastly, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit Thursday, arguing that President Donald Trump lacks the authority to remove her. The case sets up a legal battle that could test the Fed’s longstanding independence. The conflict is another reason why investors are again increasing their exposure to Gold.


The US, Russia, India And China


A concern for analysts monitoring the global political sphere is the latest summit between Russia, China and India. The main question being asked by the market is how the US will react. Will the move to strengthen ties between India, Russia and China trigger another ‘trade conflict’, applying further strain on the global supply chain and consumer demand?


Prime Minister Narendra Modi is currently on a high-stakes tour of China, Japan, and Russia to strengthen ties. This seems to be a clear reaction to the 50% tariffs being applied to India from the US. After securing $68B in Japanese investments, the Indian Prime Minister heads to the SCO summit in Tianjin, his first China visit in seven years, to meet Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, signalling a shift in US–India relations.


China, India and Russia currently make up the world’s second, fifth and eleventh largest economies. The three countries make up 22% of the world’s economy. This still falls short of the US, which is the largest economy at over 26% of the global total. The summit between the 3 is resulting in a lower risk appetite, which is supporting Gold.


XAUUSD - Technical Analysis



XAUUSD 15-Minute Chart


The price of Gold is currently trading 0.22% lower but is not triggering any sell signals. The downward price movement is so far only forming a retracement as the commodity continues to form higher highs and lows. The price is also trading above the 50.00 level on the RSI and not far below the VWAP. Therefore, the sell bias remains weak.


On the 2-hour chart, the price remains above the trendline and above moving averages, indicating a bullish bias. However, investors wait for bullish momentum to be regained. Based on the whole retracement, the price increasing above $3,416.75 will trigger buy signals. Whereas, the current bullish breakouts indicate a buy signal at $3413.80. Many analysts believe the price of Gold could potentially move out of the current recurring price range and reach a new all-time high.


Key Takeaway Points:


* Gold is climbing for a third straight day as markets expect Fed rate cuts despite strong GDP growth.
* FOMC member Christopher Waller signalled support for a 0.25% rate cut in September, with the decision hinging on August’s jobs data.
* Growing global tensions, especially India’s closer ties with China and Russia, are boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
* Technicals show gold remains in a bullish trend, with analysts eyeing a potential breakout to new all-time highs above $3,416.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.