HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 23rd April 2025.


Trump Eases Market Fears: Stocks Surge as President Declares No Intention to Fire Fed Chair Powell.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


US stock futures surged on Tuesday after President Donald Trump clarified he has ‘no intention’ of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — a statement that helped soothe Wall Street concerns over central bank independence and policy stability. The President was answering a wide range of questions from the Oval Office. He also said he expects to make a deal with China, but if there is not, it is not the end of the end. China tariffs will come down ‘substantially’, he added.


ETFs tracking US equity futures are climbing and extending Tuesday's bounce in after-hours trading on these comments. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.2%, while S&P 500 futures advanced 1.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the rally with a 1.8% spike. Investors took comfort in Trump’s softened tone toward Powell, especially after recent criticisms and threats of dismissal that had roiled markets.


Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said he ‘never did’ intend to remove Powell but reiterated his preference for lower interest rates. ‘I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates,’ Trump added.


The president’s remarks came after he previously labelled Powell a ‘major loser’ and said his removal ‘couldn’t come fast enough.’ This shift in rhetoric signalled a truce, at least for now, between the White House and the central bank — calming investors rattled by fears of political interference in monetary policy.


Asian Markets Climb on Powell News and Trade Optimism


Global markets followed Wall Street’s lead. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.7%, Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi added 1.2%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.7%. The Shanghai Composite was little changed, down just 0.1%.


The broader market mood was also lifted by new optimism around global trade. Trump indicated that tariffs on China could come down ‘substantially,’ while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called current tariff levels ‘unsustainable.’ Vice President JD Vance noted encouraging progress in US-India trade talks.





Tesla Soars After Musk Commits More Time to Company


Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped 5% in after-hours trading Tuesday despite disappointing first-quarter earnings. The electric vehicle maker missed Wall Street expectations, but investors were buoyed by CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that he will dedicate more time to Tesla.


‘Starting early next month, in May, my time allocation to DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] will drop significantly,’ Musk said during the post-earnings call, adding that he’ll spend only one to two days per week on DOGE and the rest focusing on Tesla. The company also reaffirmed plans to launch new vehicles in the first half of 2025.


Oil Prices Rebound on Fed Comments and Inventory Data


Crude oil extended gains following Trump’s assurance about Powell’s job security and a bullish industry report on US stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate climbed above $64 a barrel, reversing Monday’s losses triggered by political and economic uncertainty.


But Bitcoin appears to be charting its own path


Unlike stocks and bonds, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has climbed more than 8% during the same period, reaffirming its role — at least for now — as a hedge in investor portfolios. According to Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell, Bitcoin is doing “all the right things” to show it may be entering a new phase of market behavior, increasingly decoupled from traditional risk assets.


Zooming out to the post-election period, Bitcoin has maintained its momentum even as stock market gains have reversed. While the S&P 500 has slipped below 5,300, Bitcoin is trading above $91,000 — significantly higher than its pre-election value of around $68,000.


Of course, it's too early to call this a lasting trend. But in a climate where U.S.-centric investments are losing favor, Bitcoin’s recent resilience is turning heads across the financial world.





Bank of Japan Seen Holding Rates Amid Global Trade Turbulence


In Asia, a Reuters survey of economists revealed that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain its key interest rate through June, with a modest rate hike possibly coming in the third quarter. Only 52% of respondents now anticipate a rate hike between July and September, down from 70% last month.


Economists cited the uncertain global outlook, driven in part by Trump’s unpredictable trade policies, as a major reason for the BOJ’s cautious approach. While Trump recently imposed a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and a 24% tariff on Japanese goods — later reduced to 10% for 90 days — the impact has so far been disruptive but not severe enough to derail Japan’s monetary policy path.


Despite expected cuts to Japan’s economic growth forecast, 87% of surveyed economists said the country is unlikely to enter a recession. Many believe that a stronger yen and lower import costs could offset weaker exports, stabilizing the economy.


‘Exports will decline, but the strong yen will reduce import costs and boost corporate earnings,’ said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Research Institute. ‘And the suppression of consumer price increases is expected to support personal consumption, thereby an economic downturn is likely to be avoided.’


Markets were on edge after days of tension between the White House and the Fed. But Trump’s assurance that Jerome Powell’s position is safe — coupled with positive trade signals — helped spark a broad-based market recovery, from equities to commodities. As earnings season and economic data roll in, investors will be watching closely for signs that this rally has staying power.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th April 2025.


Market Wrap-Up: Stocks Mixed as UnitedHealth and Nvidia Drag, While Netflix Surges.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


U.S. equity markets closed Thursday’s shortened session on a mixed note ahead of the Good Friday holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 1.33%, pressured by a 22% plunge in UnitedHealth Group after it cut its earnings forecast. The Nasdaq Composite also dipped 0.13%, led lower by a 2.9% drop in Nvidia, which continues to struggle amid chip export restrictions to China.


In contrast, the S&P 500 managed a modest gain of 0.13%, supported by strength in energy stocks and a surprise earnings beat from Netflix. The streaming giant jumped in after-hours trading, driven by stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings, higher subscription prices, and robust ad revenue growth.


On the technical front, Netflix’s RSI has rebounded off the 50 level—historically a reliable signal for renewed bullish momentum. Resistance now sits at $1,065 and $1,300, while support is seen near $821 and $697.


Meanwhile, Treasury yields rose, erasing most of Wednesday’s gains. The 10-year yield climbed 4.8 basis points to 4.325%, and the 2-year yield rose to 3.785%, reflecting investor uncertainty and fading hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts.





Political Pressure and Tariff Concerns Stir Volatility


Markets also digested sharp political commentary that rattled confidence. Former President Donald Trump made headlines after attacking Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, stating that his ‘termination cannot come soon enough.’ While Powell remains firmly in position, the remarks reignited fears over central bank independence—a cornerstone of monetary policy stability.


Additionally, tariff tensions resurfaced as the former president hinted at a more protectionist trade stance. With global supply chains still vulnerable, investors grew wary of renewed U.S.-China trade friction—especially in the semiconductor and tech sectors, where Nvidia and TSMC remain key players.


Asia Rallies in Holiday-Thinned Trading as TSMC Meets Expectations


* Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.6% to close at 34,583.29.
* South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.3% to 2,478.39.
* Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.8% after TSMC met forecasts and offered cautious optimism despite ongoing chip export risks.
* China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.3% to 3,272.09 amid continued weakness in domestic demand.
Trading volumes remained thin across Asia ahead of the Easter holiday, with several regional exchanges closed.


Global Policy Moves: ECB Cuts Rates, Mixed U.S. Data Keeps Traders Guessing


In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected interest rate cut, yet investor reaction was subdued. The CAC 40 dropped 0.6% and Germany’s DAX declined 0.5%, reflecting concern that rate reductions may be arriving too late to stimulate faltering growth.


Back in the U.S., economic data sent mixed signals. Weekly jobless claims fell more than anticipated, highlighting ongoing labour market strength. However, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index contracted unexpectedly, showing continued weakness in factory output.


Combined, these updates reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may remain on hold longer than investors had hoped, especially amid sticky inflation and political pushback.


Dollar Holds Ground as Bond Yields Rise and Gold Retreats from Record Highs


In the currency markets, the US Dollar Index remained steady near 99.44, posting a third consecutive close below the psychological 100 level. The greenback traded in a narrow range between 99.231 and 99.746. Meanwhile, the dollar eased slightly to 132.42 yen and the euro ticked up to $1.1373, maintaining its recent strength.





Gold prices, which touched record highs earlier in the week, slipped 0.49% to close at $3,326.85 per ounce after hitting $3,343.12 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded sharply:


* WTI crude surged 3.5% to $64.68 a barrel.
* Brent crude rose to $67.96.


The rally in energy was supported by bargain-hunting and concerns over global supply risks. Markets remained closed Friday in observance of Good Friday, pausing further moves in commodities and bonds.


Final Takeaway: Markets Enter Holiday Pause with Unresolved Risks


As the markets head into a long weekend, investor sentiment remains cautious. Strong earnings from companies like Netflix offer moments of optimism, but persistent concerns around tariff policy, Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh heavily on risk appetite.


With bond yields creeping higher and volatility likely to return next week, traders should stay nimble and watch for cues from earnings reports, Fed speakers, and any developments on the trade or political front.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th April 2025.


Economic Data Lifts Crude Oil — Will Resistance Stall the Rally?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Crude Oil prices rise for a second consecutive day due to supply chain concerns and positive Chinese data. The price of Crude Oil rose 1.58% on Wednesday, and a further 1.15% during this morning’s Asian session. However, this upward price movement has taken the asset to the key resistance level at $62.70. Is the price about to witness a decline due to the current resistance level?


Why are Oil Prices Increasing?


One of the main reasons why Crude Oil prices have been increasing in value is the positive economic data from China. China and the US hold the biggest influence over Crude Oil demand as the two countries are the largest importers. China's first quarter’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4%, surpassing the projected 5.2%. However, analysts attribute this growth to a surge in demand for Chinese goods ahead of the anticipated tariff war and predict a potential slowdown by year-end.


Nonetheless, the oil market reacted positively to the news that the Chinese economy saw better figures than previously expected. Traders will be watching closely to see if deteriorating economic data in the coming months, driven by trade policy, will put downward pressure on prices.



Crude Oil


The US also made public positive economic data from Retail Sales. The Retail Sales figure rose by 1.4%, the highest in more than 12 months. The Core Retail Sales also rose by 0.5%, higher than the projected figure and the previous month.


Furthermore, the US, UK and Japan have confirmed they will begin negotiating a trade agreement with the US. The tone is positive and can have a positive impact on the price of Oil. However, the key factor for the Oil market is whether the US will come to an agreement with China. In terms of supply, Iraq and Kazakhstan have announced additional output cuts to keep supply controlled. In addition to this, the US is imposing additional sanctions on Iranian oil which is further pressuring the supply side. Restrictions on supply chains are known to push prices higher.


The Federal Reserve and How the Economy Will Influence Crude Oil?


Even though economic data surprised the market and provided a positive tone for many assets, the Federal Reserve was less positive. The Chairman, Mr Jerome Powell spoke towards the end of the US session discussing inflation, employment and interest rates. According to Mr Powell, the Tariffs imposed by the US administration were higher than previous expectations.


According to the Fed, the trade policy is likely to trigger higher inflation, but it is unclear whether the higher inflation will be temporary or long-term. The Consumer and Producer Price Index over the next 3-6 months will be key for the Federal Reserve. The key statement that captured investors' attention was the chairman's remarks regarding the Federal Reserve's primary focus.


Powell said, ‘without price stability, we cannot achieve long periods of strong labor market conditions’. This comment was a clear indication that the Federal Reserve will concentrate on controlling inflation and will allow the employment sector to be temporarily hit. The hawkish tone from the Fed can be seen in the Fedwatch Tool.


The expectations of a pause have risen 14% over the past week, mainly due to the speech yesterday. However, the market still believes the Federal Reserve will cut in June 2025.


Crude Oil - Technical Analysis


The main concern for Crude Oil is the resistance level at $62.70, the domino effect of a Federal Reserve reluctant to cut rates and if the so-called ‘trade war’ escalates. As the price rose to the resistance level this morning, the asset quickly declined. Nonetheless, on a 2-hour chart, the asset remains above the trend line and above the neutral area of the RSI. However, the price is below the Volume-weighted average price. Therefore, we have conflicting signals.



Crude Oil


However, if the price continues to decline and establish itself below the 200-bar simple moving average in the 3-minute timeframe, the sell signals are likely to strengthen.


Key Takeaway Points:


1. Oil prices rose for a second day, driven by strong Chinese GDP, OPEC+ supply cuts, and renewed sanctions on Iran.
2. Positive economic data from China and the US boosted demand outlook, though analysts warn China's growth may slow due to upcoming tariffs.
3. The Fed maintained a hawkish stance, prioritizing inflation control, and raising uncertainty about rate cuts despite strong economic figures.
4. Trade talks with the US, UK, and Japan lifted market sentiment, but concerns remain over a potential escalation in the US-China trade dispute.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th April 2025.


Global Markets Rattled by Tariffs and Bond Sell-Off as Volatility Surges.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Markets around the globe were hit hard on Wednesday, as sweeping US tariffs took effect and fears of a global economic slowdown intensified. From bond markets to equities, investors were left scrambling amid heightened uncertainty and growing recession risks. Volatility levels surged as investors responded to rising yields, falling oil prices, and a weakening yuan. Government bond yields surged, treasuries were hit hard, equities tumbled, and oil hit fresh multi-year lows as investors scrambled to assess the impact of sweeping trade measures.


Tariff Uncertainty Sparks Global Sell-Off


Markets were on edge as the White House confirmed a 104% tax targeting Chinese imports, effective at midnight. While the US administration indicated openness to negotiations with over 70 nations, China has yet to engage. Instead, Beijing vowed to ‘fight to the end’ and warned it has ample tools to offset any external shocks.


In a bold move, China allowed the offshore yuan to weaken to a record low of 7.4153 per dollar, signalling its willingness to absorb external shocks. Goldman Sachs warned that China might retaliate by selling US assets, including Treasuries, potentially exacerbating the sell-off.





Bond Market Under Siege as Yields Surge


Investors dumped long-duration US government bonds in droves, driving yields to multi-year highs. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly soared above 5% the highest level since 1998, while the 10-year hit 4.51% before easing back to 4.42%. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield fell on haven demand and bets for future rate cuts, steepening the curve sharply. Bond yields move inversely to prices. Stock markets came under renewed pressure.


The curve between 2s and 10s spiked by 14 basis points to 55 bps. This aggressive repricing reflected deepening fears of inflation, slower growth, and rising uncertainty over the Fed's policy path. The sharp rise in long-dated yields caused a steepening in the yield curve across Europe, with bond prices falling as investors priced in higher inflation and slower global growth.


RBNZ Cuts Rates, Signals Further Easing


New Zealand’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, marking the fifth consecutive easing. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cited mounting global trade risks and downside pressures on both growth and inflation.


‘The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for economic activity,’ said the RBNZ. ‘These developments create downside risks... The Committee has scope to lower the OCR further as appropriate.’Markets now expect rates to fall below the 3% floor previously signalled by the central bank.


Global Repercussions: Stocks and Currencies Hit


In Europe, German bonds opened lower, and a steepening yield curve emerged as longer-term yields rose sharply. Futures tracking the Stoxx Europe 600 slumped 2.9%, mirroring weakness in US and Asian equity markets.


Japanese stocks fell sharply, with the Topix dropping 3.6%, while the yen settled near ¥145 per dollar. Analysts described earlier gains as a ‘head fake,’ noting that ‘fast money’ had resumed bearish bets amid worsening trade tensions.


Chinese equities managed to rebound, driven by strength in technology and chip stocks. The CSI 300 index swung from a 1.7% decline to close up 0.3%, led by SMIC (+6%) and Foxconn Industrial Internet.


Wall Street’s major indices plunged before partially trimming losses late in the session. The S&P 500 closed down 1.57%, the Nasdaq tumbled 2.15%, and the Dow slipped 0.84%. Earlier gains of over 4% were quickly reversed as investors grew wary of systemic risks.


This marked the fourth consecutive session with a trading range exceeding 5%, a rare occurrence seen only during periods of extreme stress like March 2020, October 1987, and the 2008 financial crisis.


The VIX volatility index jumped 10.6% to 52.01, reflecting the high level of investor anxiety.





Oil Crashes to Pandemic Lows, Gold Recovers
Oil markets extended their dramatic decline as traders braced for weaker global demand. Brent crude dropped 4.1% to $60.26—a four-year low—while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $56.30. Gold, meanwhile, briefly dipped but managed to rebound above $3040 per ounce.


USDIndex Dips, Currency Volatility Rises
The US Dollar Index (DXY) swung throughout the session, at 102.25—down from a session high of 103.441. Currency markets were jittery amid safe-haven flows and shifting interest rate expectations.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 8th April 2025.


Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.


However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.


In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.


Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.


China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’


Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.


If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.


In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.


Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.


Trump Talks Tough on EU Too


Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’


The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.





Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama


Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.


The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.


Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts


Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.


Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.





Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.


However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.


In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.


Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.


Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist


With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 3rd April 2025.


Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Key Takeaways:


* Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking.
* President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions.
* Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal.
* Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction.
* Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook.


Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking


Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.


The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.


Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications


On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.


Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations


Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.


Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields


Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.


Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.





Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch


Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.


On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.


Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy


Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.


Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.


Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 2nd April 2025.


Market on Edge: Tariff Announcement and Volatility Ahead!



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The US economic and employment data continues to deteriorate with the job vacancies figures dropping to a 5-month low. In addition to this, the IMS Manufacturing PMI also fell below expectations. However, both the US Dollar and Gold declined simultaneously following the release of the two figures, an uncommon occurrence in the market. Traders expect a key factor to be today’s ‘liberation day’ where the US will impose tariffs on imports.


USDJPY - Traders Await Tariff Confirmation!


Traders looking to determine how the USDJPY will look today will find it difficult to determine until the US confirms its tariff plan. Today is the day when Trump previously stated he would finalize and announce his tariff plan. The administration has not yet released the policy, but investors expect it to be the most expansionary in a century. President Trump is due to speak at 20:00 GMT. On HFM's Calendar the speech is stated as "US Liberation Day Tariff Announcement".


Currently, analysts are expecting Trump’s Tariff Plan to impose tariffs on the EU, chips and pharmaceuticals later today as well as reciprocal tariffs. Economists have a good idea of how these tariffs may take effect, but reciprocal tariffs are still unspecified. In addition to this, 25% tariffs on the car industry will start tomorrow. The tariffs on the foreign cars industry are a factor which will particularly impact Japan. Although, traders should note that this is what is expected and is not yet finalised.


Last week, President Trump stated that he would implement retaliatory tariffs but allow exemptions for certain US trade partners. Treasury Secretary Mr Bessent and National Economic Council Director Mr Hassett suggested that the restrictions would primarily target 15 countries responsible for the bulk of the US trade deficit. However, yesterday, Trump contradicted these statements, asserting that additional duties would be imposed on any country that has implemented similar measures against US products.


The day’s volatility will depend on which route the US administration takes. The harshness of the policy will influence both the Japanese Yen as well as the US Dollar.



USDJPY 5-Minute Chart


US Economic and Employment Data


The JOLT Job Vacancies figure fell below expectations and is lower than the previous month’s figure. The JOLT Job Vacancies read 7.57 million whereas the average of the past 6 months is 7.78 million. The ISM Manufacturing Index also fell below the key level of 50.00 and was 5 points lower than what analysts were expecting.


The data is negative for the US Dollar, particularly as the latest release applies more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, this is unlikely to happen if the trade policy ignites higher and stickier inflation. In the Bank of Japan’s Governor's latest speech, Mr Ueda said that the tariffs are likely to trigger higher inflation.


USDJPY Technical Analysis


Currently, the Japanese Yen Index is the worst performing of the day while the US Dollar Index is more or less unchanged. However, this is something traders will continue to monitor as the EU session starts.


In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading at the neutral level below the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. The RSI and MACD is also at the neutral level meaning traders should be open to price movements in either direction. On the smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute timeframe, there is a slight bias towards a bullish outcome. However, this is only likely if the latest bearish swing does not drop below the 200-Bar SMA.



The key resistant level can be seen at 150.262 and the support level at 149.115. Breakout levels are at 149.988 and 149.674.


Key Takeaway Points:


* Job vacancies hit a five-month low, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions.
* Traders await confirmation on Trump’s tariff policy, which is expected to impact the EU, chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car industries.
* The severity of the tariffs will influence both the JPY and the USD, with traders waiting for final policy details.
* The Japanese Yen Index is the worst index of the day while the US Dollar Index is unchanged.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 1st April 2025.


Will Gold’s Rally Hold Strong as New Trade Tariffs Take Effect Tomorrow?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Gold continues to increase in value for a sixth consecutive day and is trading more than 17% higher in 2025. Amid fear of higher inflation, a recession and the tariffs war escalating investors continue to invest into Gold pushing demand higher. The trade policy from April 2nd onwards continues to be a key factor for the whole market. Can Gold maintain its upward trend?


Trade Policy From Tomorrow Onwards


Starting as soon as tomorrow, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all passenger cars imported into the United States. While this White House policy is anticipated to negatively affect European industrial performance, it will also lead to higher transportation and maintenance costs for everyday American taxpayers. The negative impact expected on both the EU and US is one of the reasons investors continue to buy Gold.


Additionally, last month, President Donald Trump announced reciprocal sanctions against any trade partners that impose import restrictions on US goods. Furthermore, tariffs on products from Canada and the EU could increase even more if they attempt to coordinate a response.


Overall, investors continue to worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures, particularly from China, the Eurozone, and Japan. Any retaliation is likely to escalate the trade conflict and prompt another reaction from the US. Experts at Goldman Sachs and other investment banks warn that this will lead to rising inflation and unemployment. They also caution that it could effectively halt economic growth in the US.



XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart


The Weakness In The US Dollar


Another factor which is allowing the price of XAUUSD to increase in value is the US Dollar which has been unable to maintain any bullish momentum. Despite last week’s Core PCE Price Index rising to its highest level since February 2024, the US Dollar has been unable to see any significant rise in value. Due to the US Dollar and Gold's inverse correlation, the price of Gold is benefiting from the Dollar weakness.


Investors worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures from China, the Eurozone, and Japan, potentially escalating the conflict. Experts at The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. believe that such actions by the US administration will drive rising inflation and unemployment while effectively halting economic growth in the country.


Can Gold Maintain Momentum?
When it comes to technical analysis, the price of Gold is not trading at a price where oscillators are indicating the instrument is overbought. The Relative Strength Index currently trades at 68.88, outside of the overbought area, since Gold’s price fell 0.65% during this morning’s session. However, even with this decline, the price still remains 0.40% higher than the day’s open price.


In terms of fundamental analysis, there continues to be plenty of factors indicating the price could continue to rise. However, the price movement of the week will also partially depend on the employment data from the US.


The US is due to release the JOLTS Job Vacancies for February this afternoon, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change tomorrow, and the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate on Friday. If all data reads higher than expectations, investors may look to sell to lock in profits at the high price.




Key Takeaway Points:


* Gold’s Rally Continues – Up 17% in 2025 as investors seek safety from inflation, recession fears, and trade tensions.
* Trade War Impact – New US tariffs and potential retaliation from China, the EU, and Japan drive uncertainty, boosting Gold demand.
* Weak US Dollar – The Dollar’s struggle supports Gold’s rise due to their inverse correlation.
* Gold’s Outlook – Uptrend may continue, but US jobs data could trigger profit-taking.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 28th March 2025.


Market Selloff Deepens as Tariff Concerns Weigh on Investors



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Global stock markets extended their losing streak for a third day as concerns over looming US tariffs and an escalating trade war dampened investor sentiment. The flight to safety saw gold prices surge to a record high, underscoring growing risk aversion.


Stock Selloff Intensifies


The MSCI World Index recorded its longest losing streak in a month, while Asian equities saw their sharpest decline since late February. US and European stock futures also signalled potential weakness, while cryptocurrency markets retreated and bond yields edged lower.


Investors are scaling back their exposure ahead of President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on April 2. His latest move to impose a 25% levy on all foreign-made automobiles has sparked fresh concerns over inflation and economic growth, prompting traders to reassess their strategies.


Investor Strategies Shift
Market experts are adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of heightened volatility. ‘It’s impossible to predict Trump’s next move,’ said Xin-Yao Ng of Aberdeen Investments. ‘Our focus is on companies that are less vulnerable to tariff policies while taking advantage of market dips to find value opportunities.’


Yield Curve Signals Economic Concerns
In the bond market, the spread between 30-year and 5-year US Treasury yields widened to its highest level since early 2022. Investors are bracing for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts if economic growth slows further.


Long-term Treasury yields hit a one-month peak as inflation risks tied to tariffs spurred demand for higher-yielding assets. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that while tariffs may contribute to short-term price increases, their long-term effects remain uncertain.


Gold Hits Record High as Safe-Haven Demand Rises
Amid market turbulence, gold prices soared 0.7% on Friday, reaching an all-time high of $3,077.60 per ounce. Major banks have raised their price targets for the precious metal, with Goldman Sachs now forecasting gold to hit $3,300 per ounce by year-end.


Looking Ahead
As investors digest economic data showing US growth acceleration in Q4, attention will turn to Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. This data will be critical in shaping expectations for future Fed policy moves.


With markets on edge and trade tensions escalating, investors will closely monitor upcoming developments, particularly Trump’s tariff announcement next week, which could further dictate market direction.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 26th March 2025.


GBP Comes Under Pressure From Tough Budget and Low Inflation!



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The British Pound is one of the worst-performing currencies of the day. The poor performance is due to pressure from low Inflation and what investors expect to be a tough budget. Why is the UK announcing a stricter budget and for how long will there be pressure on the GBP? Let’s find out!


Reasons Investors Are Cautious About The New UK Budget


The Pound has fallen 0.32% against the USD and more than 0.50% against the Australian and Canadian Dollar. The Pound is not the worst-performing currency of the day yet, but if the GBPJPY continues to decline as it has over the past hour, the GBP will be at the bottom of the table.


The downward momentum is due to the inflation rate which fell from 3.00% to 2.8%. Previously investors were expecting the rate to remain at 3.00%. Many investors fear the fall in inflation is due to weak economic growth and struggling consumer demand. If this continues to be the case, the Bank of England is likely to consider a rate cut.



GBPUSD 30-Minute Chart on March 26th


The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) released its retail sales index for March today, showing a decline from -23.0 to -43.0, the lowest level in eight months, compared to the initial forecast of -28.0. According to CBI experts, businesses in the retail and wholesale sectors are experiencing pressure from global trade challenges, while the new government budget, which entails a substantial rise in debt, is further straining demand.


Another key factor contributing to the Pound’s downfall is the UK’s budget and the chancellor's speech. The new UK budget will be released today and the Chancellor will speak in parliament at 12:30 GMT. Investors fear that the chancellor will announce further austerity measures and cuts to the budget. This is mainly in order to spend more on defence and adjust the budget to the weaker economic performance.


The chancellor has also stated that 10,000 public sector jobs may be eliminated, with additional savings potentially coming from changes in the accounting treatment of billions of pounds reallocated from overseas aid to the defence budget.


The question that traders are asking is whether the Pound will continue to decline. This will primarily depend on how strict the budget is, the chancellor's growth projections and how the bond market reacts. Nonetheless, the technical analysis continues to provide a bearish and dim bias for the upcoming 24 hours.


GBPUSD - Technical Analysis Points Towards A Weakening GBP


The GBPUSD has now been declining since 18:00 GMT Tuesday and failed to form a higher high. Therefore price action is partially indicating downward price movement and this signal will likely strengthen if the price falls below 1.29011. The price is also trading below the 75-bar EMA, 100-bar SMA and below the neutral level of the RSI. These factors also strengthen the bearish bias of the currency exchange.


The US Dollar index is currently trading higher this morning but traders will monitor how the index will react to the European open. This is because the index has fallen 0.08% since the European Cash Open. Nonetheless, the momentum continues to remain mainly in favour of the Dollar. The only concern for traders is the support level at 1.29011.



USDX (US Dollar Index) 30-Minute Chart on March 26th


Key Takeaway Points:
1. Pound Weakness: The British Pound is struggling due to lower inflation and budget concerns.
2. Retail Sales Drop: The CBI retail index hit an eight-month low, signalling economic strain.
3. Austerity Fears: Investors worry about public sector cuts and defence spending shifts. The bond market reaction will be key for the Pound.
4. Bearish GBP Outlook: Technical indicators suggest further decline, pending budget impact.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.