HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 03rd February 2025.


What do Trump's Tariffs Mean for the Financial Trading Markets?


The announcement of the first Trump tariffs sends volatility through the roof. The market’s first reaction is to sell stocks and buy the US Dollar. The first countries to be hit by tariffs are Canada, Mexico and China. However, the US President also gave interesting indications on the government’s next moves.


SNP500 - Tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico Send Stocks Lower!


The SNP500 opens on a bearish price gap measuring 1.54% but trades 1.76% lower than Friday’s close. The decline is driven by a sharp drop in risk appetite from tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. The VIX, a risk sentiment indicator, is up over 8%, reflecting the fall in market confidence.


Today’s sharp decline is one of the strongest seen in 2025 so far, but up to now remains weaker than the 2.95% decline from January 27th. The previous decline was due to the global repercussions of Chinese AI companies gaining momentum. However, this recent decline indicates that today’s downward trend may still gain momentum when the European and US sessions open.


The only concern for traders is the price is trading close to the SNP500’s recent support level. The SNP500’s support level at $5,920 in the previous week triggered an upward correction, partially fueled by earnings data. Alphabet is due to release its quarterly earnings report tomorrow after market close and Amazon on Thursday. Therefore, traders should be cautious that while the downward risk remains great, the earnings data may prompt demand similar to the week before.


China has also made a statement advising they are currently working on a trade proposal with the US in order to avoid tariffs. If an announcement is made indicating an agreement with China, the SNP500 could potentially gain bullish momentum. However, no such announcement has yet been made.


The US 10-ear Bond Yields increase in value during the Asian session and the VIX index continues to rise as the European session edges closer. If bond yields and the VIX continue to increase throughout the day, the bearish bias is likely to strengthen. According to price action and price momentum indicators, the SNP500 is likely to witness sell signals at $5,924 and below.


Euro - The Day’s Worst Performing Currency!


The Euro is coming under pressure due to Trump’s latest interview as he was walking off Airforce One. President Donald Trump commented on the first tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, but also said that tariffs “will definitely happen with the European Union”. Whereas, with the UK he was less concrete in his response. With the UK Trump advised there will likely be tariffs but they “may be able to work” something out.


In terms of the European economy, December retail sales dropped 1.6% month-over-month (MoM) and slowed from 2.9% to 1.8% year-over-year (YoY). This reinforces the expectations of further interest rate adjustments by European Central Bank (ECB) officials. In the Eurozone’s largest economy, conditions for this shift are in place, as inflationary pressures ease and economic growth weakens due to sluggish demand and lower household activity.


Additionally, Bank of Finland head Olli Rehn and Bank of Estonia governor Madis Müller emphasized the priority of a dovish policy stance in his speech on Friday. The Euro is currently the worst-performing currency of the day.


The US Dollar - Safe Haven Status Increases Investor Demand!


The US Dollar is currently the best performing currency due to its safe haven status. The USD Index is currently trading 1.25% higher and is the only currency index witnessing gains. The currency is witnessing the strongest gains against the Euro and the New Zealand Dollar.


Consumer inflation in the country remains well above the 2.0% target, and some analysts believe it has stabilized at this higher level, raising the chances of a pause in monetary easing. This is likely to continue supporting the US Dollar, particularly if this week’s employment data beats expectations.


Key Takeaways:


* Trump's announcement of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China sparks a sharp market decline, with the S&P 500 down by 1.76% and risk appetite falling.
As the US 10-year bond yields increase and the VIX climbs, bearish momentum strengthens, signaling further declines in the S&P 500.
* The Euro weakens after Trump hints at potential tariffs on the European Union, with December retail sales and ECB policies adding to downward pressure.
* The US Dollar benefits from its safe haven status, rising 1.25% as investors seek stability amid tariff-related uncertainty.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 29th January 2025.


Market Recap: Treasury Yields Rise as Tech Stocks Rebound.


Asia & European Sessions:


* Markets had largely recovered from Monday’s selloff triggered by fears over AI competition from China’s DeepSeek. Dip buyers took advantage of the NASDAQ’s sharp decline, leading to a rebound of 2.03%, which erased much of Monday’s 3.07% drop. The S&P500 climbed 0.92% after shedding 1.46% the previous day, while the Dow inched up 0.31%.
* Asian stocks and European equity futures increased following Wall Street’s tech-driven recovery. Japanese, Australian, and Indian markets saw gains, though many regional exchanges remained closed for Lunar New Year celebrations.
* Nvidia regained nearly half of its 17% plunge, which had marked the largest single-day market cap loss in history.
* As investor anxiety eased, the VIX volatility index dropped 8.66% to 16.35, after briefly touching 21 on Monday.
* Positive earnings from Visa, Royal Caribbean, and Boeing helped lift sentiment, though JetBlue and General Motors disappointed.
* Market attention is now turning to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and earnings reports from major tech firms. The Fed is universally expected to leave rates unchanged at a 4.375% mid-range, taking a pause after three consecutive easings totalling -100 bps since the jumbo -50 bps in September. The resilient economy and still sticky inflation do not give the Fed room to credibly continue with its policy course. And we do not expect any surprises from Chair Powell's press conference where he should stress the economy remains solid, with risks to inflation and employment generally in balance.
* Upcoming earnings: Microsoft, Tesla, Meta, IBM, ASML, ADP and Apple on Thursday.


Financial Markets Performance:


* USOIL rose 0.97% to $73.50 per barrel, while gold climbed 0.88% to $2,764 per ounce.
* Aussie weakened, while 3-year bond yields dropped 5 bps on expectations of monetary easing. Australia’s core inflation cooled more than expected in the Q4 2024, prompting speculation that the RBA may soon pivot to rate cuts.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 27th January 2025.


Mild Risk-Off Sentiment: Stocks Slide, Yen Gains, and Bitcoin Dips Amid Tariff Tensions and Fed Anticipation.


Asia & European Sessions:


* European stock market indexes are lower in early trade, after a mixed session in Asia, where concern over the weaponization of tariffs and a possible tech shakeup put mainly China bourses on the back foot.
* Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Colombia, citing the country’s refusal to accept military flights carrying deported migrants, prompted Bogotá to threaten retaliatory measures. However, the White House later announced Colombia had agreed to accept the flights, defusing immediate tensions. Trump also signalled potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting February 1.
* The Hang Seng is up 0.6%, while the Nikkei dropped as central bank action remains in focus and the yen rallied. DAX and FTSE100 are down -1.2% and 0.4% respectively in early trade and a -2.8% correction in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower.
* Bonds meanwhile are rallying as risk aversion picks up.
* The Yen rose against the US dollar during Asian trading hours, as investors sought its safety amidst concerns about President Donald Trump’s tariff. On Friday, the yen briefly climbed 0.8% after the BOJ raised its policy rate to the highest level since 2008 but later retreated. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated the central bank would maintain rate hikes as wage and price growth broadened but gave few hints on the pace of future increases.
* Bitcoin saw a sharp decline as traders took profits just days followed Trump’s Friday announcement of a long-anticipated executive order establishing a working group to guide the White House on cryptocurrency policy. This group has been tasked with drafting a regulatory framework for digital assets within six months, while also exploring the idea of creating a national crypto stockpile.
* Earnings reports from over 100 S&P500 companies will dominate headlines, featuring major players like Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA). Wednesday is shaping up to be the busiest day, with additional reports from Starbucks (SBUX), Exxon (XOM), and Chevron (CVX).
* The Federal Reserve will also be in focus on Wednesday, announcing its latest policy decision. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for clues about monetary policy for the rest of 2025.


Financial Markets Performance:


* The USDIndex is little changed at 107.40. Expectations of widespread tariffs on imports from countries like China, Canada, and Mexico have fueled inflation fears, driving US Treasury yields higher and bolstering the dollar.
* The USDJPY traded at 155.88 after the BOJ raised rates and revised inflation forecasts higher.
* The Mexican peso, often sensitive to tariff news, fell 0.7% to 20.409 per dollar, while the Canadian dollar weakened to 1.4385 per dollar.
* The euro edged down 0.2% to $1.0455 ahead of an ECB meeting expected to lower borrowing costs. The British pound traded lower at $1.2428.
* Bitcoin slipped below $98,300. Other tokens like Solana and Cardano, which had surged following Trump’s election victory, experienced even steeper losses, according to Bloomberg data.
* Oil prices are down -0.4% at $74.28 per barrel.
* Gold is down -0.6% at a still-high $2753.80 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 14th January 2025.


Asia & European Sessions: Market Sentiment Shifts on Tariff Talks and Inflation Data Focus.




Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*Bearish momentum after Friday's meltdown, rising oil prices, technicals, and apprehension over upcoming inflation reports left the market heavy and buyers scarce.
*Market sentiment got a boost by a Bloomberg source story suggesting that President-elect Trump's team considers a gradual fading in of tariffs. The report boosted stock market sentiment in Asia and Europe.
*Trump team studies gradual tariff hikes . Bloomberg cited "people familiar with the matter" as saying that "members of President-elect Donald Trump's incoming economic team are discussing slowly ramping up tariffs month by month, a gradual approach aimed at boosting negotiating leverage while helping avoid a spike in inflation". "One idea involves a schedule of graduated tariffs increasing by about 2-5% a month, and would rely on executive authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act." The sources said the proposal is still in its early stages and has not yet been presented to Trump.
*Bond yields finished marginally off their highs on possibility of gradual tariffs. The curve steepened slightly to 39 bps from 37.5 bps Friday and is out from 31.7 bps at the start of the month.
*Chinese shares rallied as much as PBoC to enhance policy tools, which allow institutional investors to access central bank funding for buying stocks. Coupled with a jump in new yuan loans that helped the Hang Seng to close 1.8% higher, while the CSI300 jumped 2.6%. Eurozone stock markets are also finding buyers, and the DAX is up 0.6%. The FTSE100 is underperforming, but yields are down also in the UK.
*US inflation is the focal point this week with key data due out, and it doesn't look pretty. Attention is on CPI (Wednesday) where we are forecasting monthly increases of 0.3% for headline and core metrics, with the y/y measures at 2.8% for the headline and 3.3% for the core. However, also due are today's report from the NY Fed on 1-year inflation expectations, PPI today, and trade prices (Thursday), along with the price numbers in the Empire State (Wednesday) and Philly Fed (Thursday) indexes.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex hit a session low of 109.33.
*EURCHF presents a rectangle identified at 14-Jan-04:00. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 0.9437 within the next 3 days. Supported by Upward sloping Moving Average.
*Oil prices are slightly lower, and the USOIL contract is at USD 78.65 per barrel.
*Gold is a tad higher at $2670.1 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 13th January 2025.


Global Market Update: Asian Stocks Fall, Pound Weakens,Oil Surges Amid Fed and Geopolitical Shifts.



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


Asia & European Sessions:


* Asian markets tumbled alongside European and US equity futures as investors scaled back expectations of near-term interest rate cuts by the Fed, following stronger-than-expected US payroll data.
*Bank of America has revised its outlook, no longer anticipating two 25 bps rate cuts this year and warning that the Fed’s next move could be a hike. Goldman Sachs also adjusted its forecast, expecting two rate cuts instead of three for 2025.
*Chinese equities also slid further despite data showing record exports for 2024, as concerns linger over potential higher US tariffs once President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
*The Pound extended its decline from last week, hitting a multi-month low.
*Oil prices surged to a 4-month high due to fresh US sanctions on Russia. These measures included restrictions on two major oil exporters, insurance companies, and over 150 oil tankers.
*China Intervenes to support the Yuan: China intensified its efforts to stabilize the yuan after the currency neared record lows in offshore trading. The People’s Bank of China, along with other regulators, vowed to strengthen oversight of the foreign exchange market, crack down on disruptive activities, and prevent further declines in the yuan.
*Geopolitical tension continues as Justin Trudeau stated that Canada is ready to respond with counter-tariffs against the US if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his threat to begin a trade war in North America.


Canada is the largest buyer of US-made products, purchasing approximately $320 billion worth in the first 11 months of last year. He emphasized that Canada is the top export partner for 35 US states, and any trade restrictions would ultimately hurt American businesses and workers. Recalling the 2018 tariffs on steel and aluminum under the Trump administration, Trudeau pointed out that Canada had responded by imposing duties on various US goods, including appliances, bourbon whiskey, and boats. He reiterated that his government is ready to take similar action if necessary.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex has inched up to 109.84, despite the fact that the Yen strengthened. EURUSD and cable remain under pressure.
*The Pound fell as much as 0.7% to $1.2126, marking its lowest level since November 2023, amid stagflation concerns and budget jitters. This extended a 1.7% drop from the previous week.
“A slowing economy and widening deficits in both the current account and fiscal balances are weighing on the pound,” said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.


*Oil markets were in focus as UKOIL rose above $81 per barrel during Asian trading hours & USOIL to $77.55 driven by US sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector.
*Gold is steady at $2686.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 10th January 2025.


Why is the British Pound Declining?



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


The Great British Pound is the worst performing currency of 2025 so far after witnessing sharp declines for 3 consecutive days. The decline is largely being triggered by the bond selloff, lack of business confidence due to the UK Autumn budget and political uncertainty. Will the trend continue?





The GBP Index Declines 2% In 2025! Why Is The Pound Dropping?


The Great British Pound is the worst performing currency of the week and of the year so far. Below you can see a table showing the Pound’s performance in January 2025 so far.


GBPUSD -2.25%


EURGBP +1.69%


GBPJPY -1.44%


GBPCHF -1.42%


GBPAUD -1.91%


GBPCAD -2.00%


A key reason for the GBP’s decline is the latest labor budget, which is driving a selloff in UK bonds. Bonds across the global market are declining, including in the US and Germany. However, the global decline is mainly due to monetary policy. The decline in UK bond yields is due to concerns regarding the UK budget, higher costs for business and investor confidence. As a result, investors are selling UK bonds, but also reducing their exposure to the Pound.


Bond Selloff and Rising Yields: Higher bond yields can sometimes strengthen a currency by attracting increased investor demand. However, this effect is unlikely when rising yields result from a bond selloff driven by declining investor confidence.


The UK 30-Year Bond Yields are at their highest level since 1998 and the 10-Year Bond Yields are up to the highest level since the banking crisis of 2008. Investors’ concerns are that the higher costs for business will be passed onto consumers, triggering higher stickier inflation. As a result, the Bank of England will struggle to reduce the cost of borrowing in 2025 and foreign investors will become more cautious of operations in the UK.


The short-term impact is that the UK Chancellor may struggle to meet her fiscal rules. Her budget margin of £9.9bn to avoid overshooting borrowing has likely shrunk to about £1 billion due to market shifts, even before the OBR updates its forecasts. This uncertainty may force the Treasury to cut future spending plans, but the full picture won’t emerge until the OBR's March forecast. According to reports, the UK Chancellor cannot risk higher increases in taxes and will be forced to cut public spending.


The GBPUSD Falls To A 60-Week Low!


The GBP is struggling against all currencies, but the sharpest decline can be seen against the USD. The GBP’s decline is partially due to the incoming president, Donald Trump, who is expected to introduce Dollar-supporting measures, but also potentially impose tariffs on the UK.





The new White House administration is likely to impose new tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico. This is likely to potentially disrupt supply chains and prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt tighter monetary policy, thereby strengthening the national currency. Some experts believe the UK will face tariffs or be pressured to adopt more pro-American economic policies. This is also something the EU will likely experience. In addition to this, reports suggest that the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, and Trump supporters are not on good terms, nor agree on much including on Geo-politics.


Therefore, the decline is also related to concerns the UK may be put into a difficult position by the new US administration. According to analysts, Dollar strength is likely to continue throughout the year due to the new administration’s measures, but also due to a hawkish Federal Reserve. In the latest FOMC meeting minutes, the committee stated it expects interest rates to decline at a slower pace. The Federal Reserve is likely to only cut 0.50% in 2025 and may not cut until May or June.


Liz Truss 2022 Or James Callaghan 1976?


Is this the first Pound crisis? The GBP has experienced many "sterling crises” in the past. For example, Black Wednesday from 1992 and after Brexit in 2016. However, there have been similar crises in the past which are very similar to the current situation. For example, the Liz Truss Budget from 2022 which saw the GBP decline more than 23%. During the Sterling Crisis of 1976 the GBPUSD fell from 2.0231 to 1.5669.


Both sterling crises were due to the budget, inflation and rising bond yields. Today’s issues for the GBP and UK are very similar, however, the performance of the GBP will depend on if the new SI contributions triggers lower economic activity, inflation and if the Federal Reserve indeed avoids cutting interest rates in the near future. If inflation rises it will dampen consumer demand and the Bank of England will be forced to pause any rate adjustments. As a result, the economy may contract or stall further pressuring the GBP.


However, this cannot yet be certain. KPMG experts anticipate accelerated economic growth this year, supported by monetary policy and increased government spending. They project GDP to rise to 1.7%, more than doubling last year’s 0.8%. This growth, according to their estimates, will be driven by a recovery in consumer spending, expected to increase by 1.8% compared to 1.0% last year. In addition to this, if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly opts for more frequent rate cuts, the GBP and EUR are likely to benefit.


When monitoring the price movement and patterns which can be seen in the exchange rate, the decline looks similar to the price movement seen in 2022, during the Truss reign. The price has now fallen below the support level from April 2024. The next support levels can be seen at 1.20391 and 1.17992. Technical analysis for the GBP can also be viewed in HFM’s latest Live Trading Session.


Key Takeaways:


*The Great British Pound is the worst performing currency of the year so far, having declined by more than 2.00%.
*A key reason for the GBP’s decline is the latest labor budget, which is driving a selloff in UK bonds.
*UK 30-year bond yields are at their highest since 1998, while 10-year yields have reached levels last seen during the 2008 banking crisis.
*Investors reduce exposure to the GBP as the US edges closer to a new president and pro-Dollar supportive measures.
*The UK labour government will not reconsider higher taxes but may be forced to reduce public spending.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th January 2025.


FOMC Minutes Signal Slower Rate Cuts, UK Borrowing Costs Surge, & Global Market Update.



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*The FOMC minutes showed that the Committee expected to be slowing the pace of rate cuts after its decision to trim rates another -25 bps. Following an unexpected emergency rate cut in September, despite there being no immediate crisis, the Fed has since shifted towards a more measured approach, indicating that a slower pace of rate reductions would be “appropriate” by December. The core strategy remains consistent: to bring inflation down. While inflation-related discussions did touch on concerns over US President-elect Trump’s trade taxes and deportation plans, these issues were not the main focus of the inflation debate.
*The Greenback was firmer overnight on reports Trump would declare a state of emergency to get his tariff plans through. It dipped on the ADP report but bounced on the tight jobless claims data. The index had firmed yesterday after Trump denied reports he would soften his tariff plans, and after the strength in the JOLTS numbers Tuesday. Solid 30-year auction results also supported in the afternoon.
*China's inflation data for December showed largely stable consumer prices, with food prices stabilizing (a notable factor given food’s significant weight in the consumer basket) and only modest increases in non-food prices, despite efforts to boost domestic consumption. Producer prices, however, continue to struggle with deflation.
*In the UK, the BRC shop price index fell more sharply than anticipated, with a significant drop in non-food item prices, likely influenced by Black Friday discounts. When combined with sales data, this suggests that UK consumers increased their real-term spending in the fourth quarter, driven by lower prices and promotions.
*Gilts remain under pressure in early trade, with the UK 10-year rate up 2.1 bp at 4.81%. UK 10-year borrowing costs surged to their highest point since the global financial crisis, while the Pound plummeted, as a deepening bond sell-off raised concerns over the Labour government’s ability to meet its self-imposed budget targets. So far in 2025, borrowing costs in the UK have increased at a faster pace than in other major economies, driven by investor fears over the government’s large borrowing requirements and the mounting risk of stagflation.
*Eurozone industrial production rose 1.5% m/m in November. Germany's jobless rate still is very low by European standards, but the overall picture remains pretty gloomy, with political uncertainty and the threat of Trump tariffs not helping.





Financial Markets Performance:


*European stock markets are mixed, with the FTSE100 outperforming and up 0.4%, while the DAX is down -0.2%, after a largely weaker close across Asia. Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost -0.3%, after Chinese inflation numbers.
*The USDIndex is up 0.2% and at 109.17, while Sterling continues to sell off. GBPUSD slumped below 1.2300 on budget angst and as the 10-year Gilt spiked.
*EURUSD slumped to 1.0273 after weak Eurozone data.
*USOIL is slightly down on the day and at USD 73.24 per barrel.
*Gold is unchanged at USD 2662.44 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 8th January 2025.


Global Market Update: Inflation Concerns Weigh on Stocks, Bitcoin Drops Below $100K, Gold Holds Steady.



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*European stocks saw an extended downturn in Asia and the US, driven by mounting inflation worries that triggered a selloff in Treasury markets.
*Fed funds futures took a hit after the stronger than expected JOLTS report, and the ISM services data that showed a pick up in activity, a solid labor market, and an acceleration in prices paid, all supporting a more cautious rate cut stance. Indeed, the implied January contract now shows just -1.7 bps in cuts this month. Earlier bets on a reduction by March have been abandoned, with rate cuts now anticipated in the latter half of the year.
*German manufacturing orders plunged -5.4% m/m in November, after already falling -1.5% m/m in the previous month. The correction was much sharper than anticipated and left the annual rate back in negative territory. There is some life in the manufacturing sector yet, even though the volatile headline numbers and negative survey readings flag ongoing weakness across the sector.
*Asian stocks saw significant losses as the MSCI index of regional equities recorded its largest single-day decline in over two weeks, erasing gains made on Tuesday. China’s primary stock index briefly dipped to its lowest point since September, reflecting investor anxiety over a potential increase in US tariffs.
*Investor sentiment across Asia remains dampened by ongoing economic uncertainty. In China, concerns about a deflationary spiral are growing, even as yield spreads in credit markets reach their lowest levels since the global financial crisis. This has challenged investor appetite amid a wave of debt issuances worldwide.
*The stronger than expected ISM services and JOLTS data weighed on Treasuries as they further eroded Fed rate cut risks, and the subsequent climb in yields and more hawkish Fed outlook hit stocks.
*The major indexes finished measurably weaker on the day with the NASDAQ dropping -1.89%, while the S&P 500 was off -1.11% and the Dow slipped -0.42%.
*Nvidia opened with a better than 2% gain to an intraday record peak of $153 after bullish news from the CES trade show, but the stock reversed in the afternoon and plunged -6% to $140.14 at the close





Financial Markets Performance:


*The US Dollar rallied to 108.65 with next immediate resistance at 108.85
*The EURUSD dipped further to 1.0325, while the GBPUSD is lower to 1.2445.
*The USDJPY is at 158.23 as the Yen remains under pressure.
*Gold is steady at $2650. Haven flows and central bank purchases helped to push gold to record highs in 2024 and central bank buying is helping to keep the price at high levels. China's central bank resumed gold purchases in November, and data released today, show that purchases continued in December.
*Oil rose for a 2nd consecutive day to $75 after industry reports indicated another drawdown in US inventories.
*Bitcoin fell more than 5%, slipping to $96,200 after the $100,000 milestone. The drop came in response to positive US economic data, which pointed to a resilient economy and reduced the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Fed.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.




Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 7th January 2025.


European Stocks Dip, Yen Hits Lows, Bitcoin Surges Over $102K Amid Market Shifts.



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*European stocks are set to open lower, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5%, reflecting caution ahead of key economic releases, including eurozone inflation and US job openings data.
*US futures also edged lower, contrasting with modest gains in Asian markets driven by strength in chip-related stocks. The surge in semiconductor shares followed Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's announcement of new products, reigniting optimism around AI demand.
*Tencent shares plunged by as much as 8%, while battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology dropped over 6% after being labeled a military-linked entity by the Pentagon.
*Market sentiment remains clouded by geopolitical concerns. Traders are digesting rising trade tensions after Donald Trump refuted reports suggesting he would ease tariffs if he returns to the White House. Washington's decision to blacklist several Chinese companies, including tech giant Tencent Holdings, has further strained U.S.-China relations, adding pressure on China’s already slowing economy.
*Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato issued a warning about "excessive moves" in the yen, suggesting potential intervention to stabilize the currency. The Yen slumped to its weakest level since July, underperforming all major currencies, as Japanese retail investor outflows and the Tokyo benchmark fixing drove the decline. Meanwhile, the selling through the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA) and trend-following dollar buying could be a key factors behind the Yen’s drop.
*Justin Trudeau has announced he will resign as Canada's prime minister and as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The US Dollar dip to 107.85 from 109.60 highs, after Trump’s denial.
*The EURUSD rebounded to 1.0413, the GBPUSD rallied to 1.2550.
*The USDJPY fell to 158.42 against the dollar before paring losses to 157.73 by mid-afternoon in Tokyo. The Yen’s performance could be further impacted by US data, particularly Friday’s jobs report. A stronger-than-expected figure may push back expectations for US rate cuts, potentially driving the USDJPY pair to 159.
*Oil prices steadied after dipping for the first time in 6 sessions, with technical indicators suggesting the recent rally may have been overextended.
*Bitcoin surpassed the $102,600 mark, signaling growing confidence in digital assets. A CoinShares report highlighted over $500 million in Bitcoin ETF investments in the year’s first three trading days. MicroStrategy added to the bullish momentum with its ninth consecutive Bitcoin purchase, acquiring another $100 million. The company now holds nearly $45 billion in Bitcoin, and its stock has surged alongside the crypto's rebound — potentially paving the way for further share issuances to fund additional Bitcoin buys. The macroeconomic backdrop remains a key driver for crypto markets. Rumors of a rollback on Trump-era tariffs have caused the USD to weaken, adding volatility to global markets. Bitcoin’s recent price moves reflect this, with traders watching the dollar index closely for cues.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 6th January 2025.


The NASDAQ Rebounds As Investors Get Ready For Earnings Season!



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


The NASDAQ jumped more than 1.65% on Friday after 5 days of consecutive declines. The decline was primarily due to investors opting to take advantage of the discounted price ahead of this week’s earnings season. Earnings season is due to start this Friday with the banking sector. However, is there still downside risk to the NASDAQ’s bullish trend?





NASDAQ - Bullish Signals With The Risk of Corrections!


Due to the NASDAQ’s considerable rise on Friday, the index is obtaining bullish signals from technical indicators and price action, although other factors continue to signal risk of a potential further downslide. With inflation on the rise again and economic data beating expectations, the hawkishness of the Federal Reserve is likely to remain.


On Thursday and Friday, the US Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices all rose above expectations. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.4 to 49.3 and the Manufacturing Prices Index from 50.3 to 52.5. Friday’s strong economic data did trigger a 40-minute decline, but the bullish trend continued thereafter. Nonetheless, the positive economic data adds to the Federal Reserve’s current bullish tone. A hawkish Fed in the long-term can dim upward price movement or even trigger a larger correction.


In addition to this, President-elect Trump will take office on January 20th and most political experts predict his administration will pursue tariffs on imports. Previously, this triggered a lower sentiment towards the stock market and a strong US Dollar. The US Dollar over the past 2 months has appreciated by almost 5.00%, but stocks have yet to experience a significant, lasting decline. A strong factor for the performance in January and February will be earnings season.


Traders will be monitoring whether institutions increase their exposure to the NASDAQ as earnings season approaches. However, the market’s decision will also depend on the upcoming employment data. The US is set to release its JOLTS Job Vacancies tomorrow, ADP Employment Change on Wednesday, NFP Employment Change and Unemployment Rate on Friday. Analysts expect the US Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.2%. If the employment data reads higher than expectations, investors may adopt a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. As a result, the positive data could have a negative short-term effect on the NASDAQ.


European stocks trade higher as the European Market opens, while Asian stocks decline. However, both the VIX Index and US bond Yields trade higher. If the VIX and Bond Yields continue to rise, traders may become cautious of further speculating the impulse wave in the short term.


NASDAQ - Earnings Season


As mentioned above, earnings season will start on NFP Friday (Friday 10th), but none of the NASDAQ components will be included. Nonetheless, the quarterly earnings reports on Friday will provide either a stronger or weaker sentiment towards the US stock market and therefore will have a ripple effect on the technology sector.


The first NASDAQ companies which analysts will be following are Netflix and Tesla. Analysts expect revenue for Netflix to increase above $10 billion, but for their earnings per share to fall from $5.40 to $4.22. However, for Tesla, analysts expect both revenue and earnings per share to increase, despite the company failing to meet its delivery targets. Over the past 12 months, Tesla has risen by 70% and Netflix by 82%.


NASDAQ - Technical Analysis


The price of the NASDAQ is trading above the 75-bar EMA and attempting to cross above the 100-bar SMA. On the 2-hour chart, the index is also trading in the buy zone of most oscillators. The NASDAQ also starts this week with a bullish price gap measuring 0.23%. Currently, the price movement indicates investors are increasing exposure as we approach the start of earnings season. However, this will also depend on the employment data throughout the week.





Key Takeaways:


*Price movement indicates investors are increasing their exposure to the NASDAQ as earnings season approaches.
*Key risks remain if employment data beat expectations, which could likely trigger a prolonged hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.
*The performance of the stock market will also depend on the potential for upcoming trade wars. Donald Trump is set to take office on January 20th.
*The price of the NASDAQ is trading above the 75-bar EMA and attempting to cross above the 100-bar SMA. Today’s trading starts with a bullish price gap.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.