HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 22nd July 2024.

Market News – Uncertainty remains the bane of the markets!

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* President Biden announced he is withdrawing from the re-election campaign. In a subsequent comment, he stated his support for Kamala Harris. He will address the nation later this week. This throws the Democrat party into more disarray as it heads into its convention from August 19-22.
* These uncertainties will further shake up the markets when trading opens.
* For weeks, investors have speculated about an increased likelihood of Donald Trump winning the November election, especially after Biden’s underwhelming debate performance. Now, with Biden exiting the race, investors are reconsidering their strategies regarding a potential Trump victory.
* China’s PBoC cut its 7-day reverse repo rate by -10 bps to 1.70% from 1.80% in a surprise move coming out of the Third Plenum.
* Earnings: Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. will kick off earnings reports for the “Magnificent Seven” on Tuesday, while major European banks are set to report their earnings this week as well. Analysts will be watching to see if the benefits from higher interest rates are diminishing and how recent political developments are impacting market sentiment.

Asian & European Open:

* It is a cautious, choppy start to trading in the wake of the news. This negative start to the week mirrored the losses seen on Wall Street on Friday, as businesses globally dealt with a major technology outage.
* Asian stock markets mostly fell after President Joe Biden’s announcement. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has rallied 0.82% but the Nikkei is down -1.3% amid the fallout from Friday’s slump on Wall Street.
* US futures remained relatively stable while European stock futures are higher.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has traded narrowly, but initially dropped to 103.90 versus Friday’s close at 104.396. It is mixed against its G10 peers.
* USDCNY has been jumpy, impacted both by the PBoC’s news as well as the Biden news earlier. The buck rose to 7.2737 in early action before sliding to 7.2706. It has edged back to 7.2730.
* Metals showed mixed results following their worst weekly decline in nearly two years, with a rate cut in China helping to stabilize the market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 19th July 2024.

Global Stocks Tumble as Risk Appetite Plummets!

* The NASDAQ declines for a third straight day and fell to its lowest level for July.
* Netflix Quarterly Earnings Report unable to support US indices. The Dow Jones loses momentum after 6 straight bullish days.
* The US Dollar Index attempts to regain losses from earlier in the week and trades 0.65% higher than yesterdays
* The British Pound comes under pressure from the decline in Retail Sales. However, the New Zealand Dollar continues to be the worst performing currency.

GBPUSD

The British Pound against the US Dollar is losing momentum for two reasons. The first is that the exchange rate is largely being driven by the Dollar which has risen in value across the board. The US Dollar Index is attempting to regain loses from earlier in the week and trades 0.65% higher than yesterdays open. This is partially due to the lower price but also the lower investor sentiment as stocks falls over the past 3 trading days.

The second reason is the poor economic data from the UK which is likely to pressure the Bank of England to adjust interest rates at the next meeting. According to economists a 25-basis point cut at the next meeting is not yet certain. However, a cut will take place either on the 1st of August or September 19th unless something drastic changes. The poor data includes the number of new unemployed individuals which has considerably risen over the past 2 months. This morning, the UK government also confirmed Retail Sales has fallen 1.2% which is double the decline previously expected.

For the US, weekly employment data was released yesterday: the number of Unemployment claims rose by 243,000, exceeding both the forecast of 229,000 and the previous figure of 223,000. Additionally, the total number of citizens receiving government assistance increased from 1.847 million to 1.867 million, raising the likelihood of interest rate adjustments in September. According to most analysts, the rate cut for September is fully priced in at around 103.20 for as long as other central banks also adjust.

The US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, published this week, indicates that economic activity is growing at a moderate pace, but businesses expect a slowdown over the next six months due to the US election campaign and consumers struggling with prices. However, the lower risk appetite is triggering higher demand for the Dollar over the past 48 hours. It’s vital investors continue to monitor the US Dollar Index while analysing the GBPUSD.

The price of the exchange is now trading below the 75-Period EMA and below the 50.00 on the RSI. This indicates low sentiment towards the Pound and bearish control for the time being. Fibonacci retracement levels indicate a sell signal will arise at the 1.29290 price whereas the breakout level indicates 1.29261. however, if the price rises above 1.29400 or the trendline, short-term sell signals become unlikely.

USA100

The price of the NASDAQ has now fallen for 3 consecutive days but did see less downward momentum compared to Wednesday’s collapse. The index has now fully corrected the gains for the first 2 weeks of the month and is trading close to the previous support level. However, as previously mentioned, due to the higher economic risk, investors will most likely need strong earnings data to be tempted to purchase the discount unless the price becomes even more favourable.

The price of Bond Yields has risen during this morning’s Asian session and the VIX is also trading slightly higher. The VIX this week has already added almost 10% which indicates a significant decline in risk appetite. In addition to this, the poor data from the rest of the world’s leading economies can also damage sentiment towards stocks. Currently the biggest indication for short term upward price movement is the lower price and potential upcoming earnings data.

Netflix has released their earnings report overnight. The company’s earnings read 2.40% higher than expectations at $4.88 and revenue was 3 million higher than expectations. However, the stock is yet to see any major volatility or support. Currently the stock trades 0.18% lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th July 2024.


Escalating Tariffs on China Spark a Major Selloff in Tech Stocks!


* Investors expect the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at 4.25%.
* US confirms new sanctions against China primarily aimed at semiconductors applying significant pressure on Tech Stocks.
* The NASDAQ trades more than 4% lower than its recent highs. Investors reduce their involvement in growth stocks as top economists predict a decline in consumer demand.
* The top 10 most influential stocks for the NASDAQ fell an average of 3.97% on Wednesday. Netflix due to release their earnings report today after market close.


USA100 – Tariffs Intensify Against China Triggering A Tech-Stocks Selloff!


On Wednesday, the NASDAQ fell a total of 2.82% and is trading 4.25% lower than its recent highs. The reason behind the quick selloff is twofold. At first the NASDAQ saw lower demand as leading bankers and economists signalled weaker consumer demand from the lower income portion of the economy. The second is the United States decision to intensify sanctions on chips being sold to China. As a result, the semiconductor sector took a big hit and had a domino effect on the rest of the technology market.


The Semiconductor selloff seen yesterday was the biggest in four years, but investors also should note that at some point a lower price can trigger investors to buy the dip. Though the question remains as to when that is likely to happen. After the market close, in after trading hours, most of the semiconductor sector rose in value, but still remain significantly lower than the open price.


Investor willingness to purchase the dip will also depend on earnings data which will start this evening. Netflix is due to release their quarterly earnings report after market close. Analysts expect the company’s earnings per share to rise from $4.54 to $4.76 and for revenue to increase by 25 million. Netflix’s stock fell less than other components during yesterday’s decline which can be perceived as a positive. However, the price action will depend on tonight’s reports.


Investors are only likely to enter at the discounted price if earnings data from the most influential companies beat expectations and cool down concern over consumer demand. The most influential day for earnings will be next Tuesday where Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Tesla and Visa release their reports. Whereas, if earnings are not able to increase demand, the sanctions imposed have the ability to reduce sentiment towards the sector for a prolonged period.


Currently, the price of the NASDAQ trades lower than most Moving Averages and lower than the neutral on the RSI. However, the price is retracing upwards. Therefore, investors will monitor whether the price will attempt a correction or decline further. If the price falls below $19,879.33, momentum indicators are likely to signal a decline, whereas above $20,100 will bring the price above the trend line which can indicate an attempted correction to $20,405.


EURGBP – UK Adds High Number Of Unemployment Claims!


The price of the EURGBP increased in value after the UK’s Claimant Claims rose by 32,300, almost 10,000 more than analysts’ expectations. Over the past two months the UK has added 82,600 more unemployed individuals. As a result, the Bank of England may be more tempted to decrease interest rates at the next meeting but according to analysts this is not yet certain.


Nonetheless, the price has increased 0.11% and risen above the 75-Period Moving Average on the 2-hour chart. If the price rises above 0.84145, the exchange rate potentially will maintain a buy signal. This will also depend on today’s ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference. Analysts expect the rate to remain at 4.25% but are hoping for guidance on when the next cut is likely.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th July 2024.

Gold Hits New All-Time High as Investors Flee the Dollar!

* Gold reaches an all-time high as investors look to mitigate away from political risk and a potential economic slowdown.
* UK inflation remains unchanged whereas analysts previously expected a 0.1% decline.
* Economists contemplate whether the Bank of England will opt to adjust interest rates in August or wait for September’s meeting.
* All US indices increase in value bar the NASDAQ which fell 0.18%. The SNP500 rises 0.64% and the Dow Jones 1.85%.

XAUUSD – Gold Rises To All-Time High!

Gold rises to an all-time high after increasing in value by almost 2% on Tuesday. Investors are turning to Gold in an attempt to mitigate political risk, interest rate adjustments and also the possibility of weaker economic growth. Weaker economic growth has been mentioned by leading economists over the past week which is prompting higher gold demand.

However, the price of Gold did witness an overbought signal on the RSI for the first time this week at $2,472.85 and soon after fell 0.45%. Here we can see how the RSI assisted traders with determining that Gold may have stretched too far. Currently, as the price retraces lower, the price is no longer overbought and still continues to maintain buy signals on the 2-hour timeframe. Though investors will look for bullish momentum to build before speculating in favor for the trend. For example, if breakout signals can be seen at $2,470.95 and $2,472.70 or Fibonacci retracement signals a buy indication at $2,475.00.

A positive factor for Gold is the decline in the US Dollar which currently is trading 0.08% lower this morning. Though, investors would prefer the decline to gain momentum. In addition to this, the pricing of interest rate adjustments is also supporting the value of Gold. According to the CME Exchange, there is a 93% chance of a 25-basis point cut and a 7% chance of a 50-basis point cut for September.

A large portion of the demand for Gold in 2024 derives from China and is largely the reason why gold has surged more than 21% so far this year. China will suspend gold supplies, but experts believe the government will continue to import without reporting it. It may indicate an intention to purchase more gold than before, following the trend set by global central banks, which are actively replenishing their reserves. Thus, the National Bank of Poland increased gold volumes by 4.0 tons in June. Additionally, the National Bank of India purchased 9.0 tons, and now the country’s reserves amount to 841.0 tons. Regardless of this, lower interest rates can support Gold and short-term traders will focus on the trend and technical analysis.

GBPUSD – UK Inflation Remains Sticky!

The price of GBPUSD has increased in value after the UK inflation remained at 2.00% instead of declining to 1.9%. As a result, economists are contemplating whether the Bank of England will opt to adjust interest rates in August or wait for September’s meeting. Previously, investors were leaning more towards a cut in August. Currently investors monitoring price action are evaluating whether the price will rise above the most recent resistance level which has formed a double top.

The price of the US Dollar will also be detrimental to the price movement of the exchange. Currently, the US Dollar Index has fallen 0.12% so far this morning. Throughout the day the Building Permits and Industrial Production will influence the price of the US Dollar. The GBP will now turn its attention to the release of the UK’s Claimant Claims Change and Average Earnings Index.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.