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[HFM]

Date: 4th July 2025.


European Markets Slip Ahead of Tariff Deadline, Wall Street Surges on Jobs Report and Fiscal Optimism.



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European Equities Slide on Trade Uncertainty


European stock markets edged lower on Friday as investors grew increasingly cautious ahead of a looming US trade policy deadline. With the July 9 expiration of President Trump's 90-day pause on increased tariffs approaching, concerns over unresolved trade agreements weighed heavily on sentiment.


The pan-European STOXX 600 index declined by 0.4% to 541.61 points in early trading, setting course for a weekly loss. Major regional benchmarks across the continent also moved into negative territory, driven by uncertainty over US-EU trade negotiations.


US Markets Rally on Robust Jobs Data and Legislative Progress


President Trump announced that Washington would begin sending formal tariff notifications to trading partners on Friday. These letters will detail the new duties—expected to range between 20% and 30%—on goods exported to the United States. Several key allies, including the European Union and Japan, have yet to secure final trade deals with the US, raising fears of a renewed trade war.


Sector-wise, mining stocks led the losses with a 1.1% drop, followed by a 0.8% slide in technology shares. Meanwhile, France’s Alstom gained 1.1% after landing a €2 billion ($2.4 billion) contract from New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority.


US equity markets surged as traders reacted positively to a stronger-than-expected June employment report and growing optimism over fiscal stimulus. The markets closed early on Wednesday ahead of the July 4 holiday, but not before notching record highs.


NASDAQ rose 1.02% to 20,601
S&P 500 climbed 0.83% to 6,279
Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.77% to 44,828, near its January peak of 44,882
Investor confidence was further boosted by the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) in the US House of Representatives. Approved by a narrow 218–214 vote, the sweeping pro-growth legislation is expected to be signed into law by President Trump on July 4, his self-imposed deadline.


The OBBB aims to generate $500 billion in savings over the next decade, defying the Congressional Budget Office’s projection of a $3.3 trillion deficit increase. Key provisions include:


Raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion
Expanding standard deductions and child tax credit
Reducing taxes on tips, overtime, Social Security, and auto loans
Increasing the SALT deduction cap to $40,000
Blocking a planned $4.5 billion tax hike set for year-end
As equities climbed, volatility dropped, with the VIX falling 1.56% to 16.38. However, US Treasury yields spiked amid strong data and diminished expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The 2-year yield rose 9.5 basis points to 3.88%, while the 10-year yield climbed 7 basis points to 4.35%.


DXY (US Dollar Index) surged to 97.422 before paring gains to close at 97.168, supported by US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s commitment to maintaining a strong-dollar policy.


Oil Prices Ease on Diplomatic Hopes and OPEC+ Output Plans


Crude oil prices retreated slightly on Friday, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of increased supply from OPEC+.


Brent crude dipped 0.51% to $68.45 per barrel
WTI crude dropped 0.37% to $66.75 per barrel
Oil markets responded to reports that the US and Iran may resume nuclear talks next week, as disclosed by both Iranian officials and US media outlet Axios. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, despite recent tensions and legislation suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.


Looking ahead, traders are closely watching the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where an additional production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August is expected. Four delegates confirmed the proposed hike as the oil alliance continues efforts to reclaim market share.


Additional Developments: Sanctions and Diplomacy


Adding complexity to the geopolitical picture, the US Treasury imposed fresh sanctions on a network accused of smuggling Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi shipments. Another target included a Hezbollah-linked financial entity.


At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met with President Trump at the White House to discuss regional de-escalation strategies.


Meanwhile, Barclays revised its oil price forecast upward, citing stronger demand outlooks. The bank now sees Brent crude averaging $72 per barrel in 2025, and $70 per barrel in 2026.


Conclusion: Markets Brace for Trade Decision, but Optimism Lingers


Global markets are at a crossroads, with investors balancing optimism over US economic momentum and fiscal policy against the potential fallout of escalating trade tensions. As the July 9 tariff deadline nears and nuclear talks with Iran possibly resume, both equity and energy markets may experience renewed volatility.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th July 2025.


Wall Street Hits New Highs Amid Strong Data, Optimism Over Fed Stability, and Tech Earnings Boom.



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The NASDAQ rose to a new all-time high on Friday, almost bringing its 2025 gains to double-digit figures. The index’s gains for 2025 are currently 9.96% and are the 3rd best performing index after the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50. The NASDAQ is also performing well during this morning’s Asian Session, rising a further 0.33%. Will the NASDAQ end the week on a high?


EU vs US: Trade Battle


In 2025, most of the trade negotiations were focused on China, as were economists and investors. However, the EU’s volume of trade with the US is very similar to that of China. Therefore, investors will be eager to see if the two parties can negotiate an agreement or at least agree to a later deadline.


President Trump is applying pressure to raise tariffs on European goods, and the deadline is approaching. According to Bloomberg, the US is likely to harden its stance in the last days of negotiations. Ongoing negotiations with both the EU and China aim to avert further escalation ahead of the key August 1st deadline. This week will be key for negotiations and is likely to trigger a lot of volatility, but so far, it has not sparked a decline. However, if an agreement is not reached, the most likely response will be to sell stocks as investors will instantly fear the repercussions of higher tariffs. This was also something seen in February, March and April and resulted in a stock market crash.


The price has now fully corrected and risen to new all-time highs. However, this is only likely to continue if tariffs are avoided or reduced. The SNP500 and Nasdaq have been able to reach new highs over the past week only due to strong retail sales, falling jobless claims, and improved business sentiment, while Treasury yields dipped on Fed policy speculation. Retail Sales rose to 0.6% and Weekly Unemployment Claims were 12,000 lower than projections.


Quarterly Earnings Reports


Even though trade negotiations are stealing the spotlight, earnings reports will continue to create volatility. They will also help investors determine potential price movements in the coming days and weeks. The main quarterly earnings reports will come from Tesla and Alphabet (Google).


Alphabet is due to release its quarterly earnings report on Wednesday after the market closes. Currently, the stock holds a weight of 7.50% making the company the 4th most influential company for the NASDAQ. In the previous quarter, the stock easily beat the earnings per share projections, but the price came under a lot of pressure from the 2025 stock market crash. Currently, the stock is still trading 2.45% lower in 2025. However, if the revenue and earnings per share again beaten expectations, the stock is likely to rise. The average increase seen when the company has beat earnings is 4.00%.


Tesla is also due to release their earnings report after market close on Wednesday. The stock has been on a rollercoaster ride, partially due to sales figures but also due to external factors. The stock is currently trading 13% lower in 2025. Tesla's earnings projections are only $0.28 per share. This is even lower than the first quarter's projections, but the price volatility will depend on whether the actual figures are higher than the current projections. Buyers would like the earnings per share to rise to at least $0.35, which was the earnings from the projections for the previous quarter.


NASDAQ (USA100) - Technical Analysis



NASDAQ 15-Minute Chart


Despite risks from potential bad earnings reports and trade tensions between the EU, China and the US, technical analysis continues to point to bullish price movements. The price continues to form higher highs and lows as well as remain above Moving Averages and the VWAP. The RSI also remains above 50.00 and is not witnessing signs of divergence.


Other signals of bullish price movement are the VIX index, which is trading 1.50% lower during today’s Asian Session. All global indices are also trading higher, except the Euro Stoxx 50 and the Put/Call ratio slightly dips. All these factors support a ‘risk-on’ sentiment, but earnings and trade negotiations will need to continue to support this.


Key Takeaway Points:


* NASDAQ nears double-digit 2025 gains, hitting record highs and rising further in the Asian session.
* US–EU trade tensions escalate ahead of the August 1st tariff deadline, risking market volatility. The NASDAQ’s performance is deeply entwined with the outcome of these negotiations.
* Earnings from Tesla and Alphabet this week could drive sharp price moves depending on results.
* Technical indicators remain bullish, with rising prices, low VIX, and strong RSI despite macro risks.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 8th August 2025.


Global Markets Struggle for Direction Amid Tariffs, Fed Expectations, and Weak Jobs Data.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Wall Street Ends Mixed as Economic Signals Remain Conflicted


Global markets endured another hesitant session on Thursday, with investors balancing disappointing U.S. labour data, central bank actions, and renewed trade tensions. Last week’s weak jobs report and an increase in unemployment claims reinforced expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve stance in the months ahead.


Bond market sentiment turned bearish after a poor 30-year Treasury auction capped a weak August refunding, while a hawkish interest rate cut from the Bank of England earlier in the day also weighed on confidence. An unexpected rise in U.S. productivity provided only a modest lift. Meanwhile, reciprocal tariffs went into effect at various levels, keeping trade policy firmly in focus.


Apple’s announcement of a significant U.S. manufacturing investment helped Wall Street open with moderate gains, but momentum faded as dip-buying interest cooled. By the close, the NASDAQ finished 0.35% higher—well off session peaks—while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.51% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.08%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) eased 1.25% to 16.56, and Treasuries ended mixed.


Asian Markets Mixed; Nikkei Nears Record High


In Asia, Friday’s trading was mixed. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.2% to 41,977.65, approaching record highs, after Japan confirmed it had resolved a dispute with Washington over tariffs on Japanese goods. The duties, implemented Thursday, initially exceeded the agreed 15% level, but Japan’s chief trade envoy confirmed the U.S. had agreed to make the necessary adjustment. Automakers were among the top performers, with Toyota Motor Corp. rising 3.9% and Honda Motor Co. gaining 4%.


Elsewhere, sentiment was softer. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.7% to 24,916.15, the Shanghai Composite Index edged up less than 0.1% to 3,642.10, South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.7% to 3,206.86, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.2% to 8,813.70. Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.2%, while India’s Sensex fell 0.5%. Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management described market momentum as unpredictable, warning that early-week trends can reverse sharply by Friday.


Tech Sector Gains Offset by Intel Troubles


Technology stocks provided the strongest lift in the U.S. session. Apple rose 3.2% after CEO Tim Cook joined President Donald Trump at the White House to announce an additional $100 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing over the next four years. Semiconductor stocks also advanced after Trump imposed 100% tariffs on imported chips but promised exemptions for companies with substantial U.S. operations. Advanced Micro Devices surged 5.7%, while Nvidia added 0.8%.


Intel, however, fell 3.1% after Trump demanded the immediate resignation of CEO Lip-Bu Tan, accusing him of being “highly conflicted” due to his ties with Chinese firms. Tan responded by confirming that Intel is in active talks with the U.S. administration to address concerns and ensure accurate information is provided, while reaffirming the company’s focus on turning around its struggling operations.





Oil Prices Head for Steepest Weekly Losses Since June


Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trading on Friday but were poised for their sharpest weekly declines since late June. Brent crude futures dipped three cents to $66.40 a barrel at 0050 GMT, on track to fall more than 4% for the week, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped six cents to $63.82, set for a weekly loss of over 5%.


ANZ Bank analysts warned that the latest U.S. tariffs, which came into force Thursday, have raised fears of slower global economic growth and reduced oil demand. Prices were already under pressure after OPEC+ announced last weekend that it would fully unwind its largest tranche of output cuts in September, months ahead of schedule. WTI futures have now fallen for six consecutive sessions, matching a losing streak last seen in December 2023. A decline on Friday would mark the longest streak since August 2021.


Geopolitical Developments Add to Market Uncertainty


The Kremlin confirmed on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet U.S. President Donald Trump in the coming days, fueling speculation of a potential diplomatic breakthrough in the war in Ukraine. The U.S. also imposed new tariffs on India over its purchases of Russian crude oil, though analysts at StoneX noted the measures are unlikely to significantly disrupt Russian oil flows to global markets. Trump also indicated that China, the largest buyer of Russian crude, could face similar tariffs.


Currency Market Moves


In currency trading, the U.S. dollar edged up to 147.16 yen from 147.13, while the euro eased to $1.1660 from $1.1667. With trade disputes intensifying, central banks adjusting policy, and commodity markets under pressure, volatility remains a defining feature of the current global market landscape.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 25th August 2025.


Fed Signals A September Rate Cut Still Possible!



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


As the possibility of an interest rate cut was looking less likely, the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech provides clarity on the matter. Towards the end of the Jackson Hole Symposium, it is tradition that the Fed Chairman delivers the closing address =. Mr Jerome Powell took this opportunity to advise markets that there is still a possibility for a rate cut in September, despite mixed views within the FOMC.


Possibility of September Rate Cut


The EURUSD rose to its highest price since July 28th after the speech by the Federal Reserve chairman. The price of the US Dollar had been consistently increasing during the previous week as traders became more cautious about a potential rate pause. A rate pause would be a hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve and would largely support the US Dollar.


According to economists, the probability of a September rate cut has now risen from 82% to 88%. In addition, economists suggest that two 0.25% rate cuts by the end of the year remain the most likely outcome. But why has the market’s perception of future rate cuts shifted since the Fed’s speech?


Federal Reserve Speech By Jerome Powell


Jerome Powell did not provide concrete signals that a September rate cut is certain. However, he clearly stated that if employment remains at risk, “a 0.25% rate cut could be warranted”. Even though Powell did not confirm a rate cut, the slightly dovish tone was enough to weaken the US Dollar and fuel a rebound in the stock market.


Powell highlighted the unusual dynamics in the labor market, noting that both worker supply and demand are cooling, which increases risks to employment. At the same time, inflation remains slightly above the Fed’s 2% target, driven in part by tariff-related pressures. He underscored the difficulty of balancing these competing challenges.


The July NFP Employment Change came in at only 73,000, the lowest reading since November 2024. In addition, the Unemployment Rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. If the employment change again reads below 100,000 and unemployment stays at 4.2% or higher, the chances of a rate cut will become almost certain.


The US Dollar


The best-performing currency in today’s Asian session is the US Dollar. However, traders should note that the price action reflects only a retracement following Friday’s decline. Looking at the broader trend, the US Dollar index is 0.27% lower over the past week, even with today’s slight gains.


Meanwhile, the Euro is the second-best performing currency of the past week but is showing mixed performances this morning. Germany’s Q2 GDP was revised down to –0.3% QoQ (vs. –0.1% forecast) and 0.2% YoY (vs. 0.4% expected). The decline reflects weaker US demand after pre-tariff stockpiling, raising doubts over Europe’s recovery this year and next. The Economy Ministry warned that existing support measures are insufficient, calling for new incentives to revive competitiveness and growth.


EURUSD - Technical Analysis



EURUSD 12-Hour Chart


The EURUSD is forming a reversed Head and Shoulders pattern on a daily chart, which provides a bullish bias over the longer term and aligns with market expectations for two rate cuts in 2025.


In addition, the price of the EURUSD is trading above the 75-bar EMA and the 100-bar EMA. The RSI is also comfortably trading above the 50.00, further supporting a bullish trend and buyers’ control. If the price of the EURUSD rises above 1.17119, bullish signals on smaller timeframes are likely to materialise again.


Key Takeaway Points:


* Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole kept the door open for a possible September rate cut, but employment data and the NFP reading will be decisive.
* Odds of a September cut rose to 88%, fueling a rebound in stocks and pressuring the Dollar.
* Economists note that if the NFP report comes in below 100,000 again and unemployment holds at 4.2%, the likelihood of a rate cut will increase further.
* EURUSD shows a bullish bias, trading above key EMAs with RSI strength, supported by a potential reversed Head and Shoulders pattern.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.