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    Thread: HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

    1. #1 Collapse post
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      Date: 23th June 2025.


      The USD Benefits From Middle East Escalations



      Trading Leveraged products is Risky


      UK and European Purchasing Managers’ Indexes have been made publicly available but so far are not supporting either currency. So far, the best-performing currency is the US Dollar. The US will release its own PMI report at 13:45 GMT+0. The price of the US Dollar continues to witness the impact of the hawkish Federal Reserve and new escalations within the Middle East.


      UK and EU PMI Data


      The European PMI reports were the first to be made public. Both French PMI reports fell below expectations and below the previous month’s release. Particularly investors were concerned with the Manufacturing PMI which fell from 49.8 to 47.8. The German Manufacturing PMI read as expected while the Services PMI rose to a 2-month high.


      A similar story for the UK, Manufacturing PMI data read higher than expectations while the Services PMI read as expected. However, the Great British Pound index still fell in value despite the report. In addition to this, the Pound also continues to remain under pressure from the Bank of England which held its interest rate at 4.25%, supported by six of the nine governing board members, in response to improved trading conditions following the agreement with the US. The Euro Index is currently trading at 0.56% lower and the Pound at 0.63%.


      The Bank of England Governor’s speech tomorrow afternoon, along with Thursday’s address, will play a major role in driving the British Pound. Meanwhile, the Euro will see limited releases, with the German IFO Business Climate standing out as the key focus.


      US Dollar And Middle East Escalation


      The best-performing currency of the day is the US Dollar which is currently trading 0.69% higher so far today. The first reaction of the US Dollar after the US bombing of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan was a downward price movement, however, the market since then has significantly risen in value. The US Dollar is currently trading at its highest price on June 11th.


      The US Dollar strengthened as geopolitical tensions escalated after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites triggering a lower risk appetite. However, traders will be closely monitoring the release of the US Manufacturing and Services PMI. Investors expect both PMI reports to be slightly weaker than the previous month, however, this cannot be certain until the release is made public.


      EURUSD - Technical Analysis



      EURUSD 2-Hour Chart


      The EURUSD is currently trading below the 75-period EMA and is currently forming a descending triangle pattern on the 2-hour chart. The descending triangle pattern is known to provide a bearish bias as it trades below the 75-period EMA. However, the price is also trading at the support level. On smaller timeframes, the price continues to trade below the 200-period SMA but is retracing higher. However, the retracement is unable to maintain momentum and is forming lower highs.


      Key Price Takeaways:


      * USD leads as geopolitical tensions and Fed hawkishness boost demand; up 0.69% today.
      * UK and EU PMIs failed to support GBP and EUR despite some stronger readings.
      * BoE and ECB speeches/data remain key drivers; markets await US PMI release.
      * EUR/USD shows bearish signals, trading below key EMAs in a descending triangle.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Michalis Efthymiou
      HFMarkets



      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 15th July 2025.


      European Stocks Rise on Trade Hopes, Asian Markets Dip | CPI & Bitcoin in Focus.



      Trading Leveraged products is Risky


      European stocks climbed on Tuesday, led by gains in the automobile and technology sectors, after US President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to negotiate tariffs with the European Union.


      The pan-European STOXX 600 index edged 0.2% higher to 547.74 points by 07:11 GMT, supported by positive momentum across most regional bourses. The market’s tone improved after Trump hinted at upcoming discussions with EU officials, despite recent threats of steep tariffs on European imports.


      Trade Hopes Support European Equities


      While the EU had earlier accused the US of blocking progress toward a trade agreement, investor sentiment was lifted when Trump confirmed that EU representatives would soon visit Washington for negotiations. The US president had previously escalated trade tensions by threatening to impose a 30% tariff on most EU imports starting August 1, heightening concerns over a broader trade conflict.


      Automobile stocks led the charge in Europe, advancing 0.9%, while tech shares followed with a 0.8% gain. Telecoms, however, lagged, dipping 0.8%.Among notable movers, Orsted shares surged 5.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the Danish offshore wind energy firm to “Overweight” from “Equal Weight,” citing stronger growth prospects.





      Key Data and Earnings in Focus


      Investors are eyeing crucial macroeconomic data releases on Tuesday, including Eurozone industrial production for May and Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for July. Across the Atlantic, the US earnings season kicks off, with major banks set to release their second-quarter results. Additionally, the highly anticipated US CPI inflation data for June is due later in the day, expected to show a slight acceleration in consumer prices.


      Markets Retreat on Tariff Fears


      In contrast, Asian stock markets mostly traded lower in early Tuesday deals, weighed down by renewed concerns over US tariff threats.


      * Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.1% to 39,507.28
      * Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.4% to 8,602.70
      * South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.2% to 3,195.72
      * Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.1%
      * China’s Shanghai Composite dropped 0.9%


      China’s GDP growth slowed slightly in the second quarter to 5.2% year-over-year, down from 5.4% in Q1, reflecting the drag from escalating trade tensions. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 1.1%, official data showed.


      US Markets Hold Steady as CPI Report Looms


      On Monday, US equities posted modest gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.1%, the Dow Jones rising 0.2%, and the Nasdaq climbing 0.3%. Investors are cautiously optimistic that the White House may tone down tariff threats, especially with trade negotiations ongoing and financial markets showing resilience.





      Gold Rises Amid Mixed Trade Signals


      Gold prices rebounded, gaining as much as 0.5% after Monday’s pullback. The precious metal remains a safe-haven favorite in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Although Trump expressed openness to renewed talks, his insistence that tariff notification letters serve as the “final deal” has left markets unsure.


      Gold has surged over 25% year-to-date, briefly surpassing $3,500 an ounce in April, driven by global volatility and aggressive US trade rhetoric. However, the rally has paused in recent months, with investors waiting for more clarity on global trade frameworks.


      Bitcoin Soars as US Debates Crypto-Friendly Legislation


      In the digital asset space, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $122,404 on Monday, boosted by optimism surrounding crypto-focused legislation in the US. The Genius Act, along with the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, is set for debate in Congress this week. The bills aim to provide regulatory clarity and further integrate cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance.


      NVIDIA Poised to Resume China Sales


      NVIDIA is preparing to resume sales of its revised H20 GPUs to China, in compliance with updated US export regulations. Sources indicate the company has received positive signals from policymakers after CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump, reaffirming support for domestic job creation and innovation.


      Inflation Data and Earnings Set the Tone for the Week


      Markets remain focused on US inflation data, with June CPI expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, and the core index projected to increase 0.3%. Annual headline inflation is likely to accelerate to 2.6% from 2.4% in May, while the core CPI may edge up to 2.9%, staying below the 3% threshold for the fourth consecutive month.


      These figures are critical as the Federal Reserve assesses whether to maintain its dovish stance or adjust policy in response to trade developments and inflation trends.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Andria Pichidi
      HFMarkets



      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 30th July 2025.


      Global Markets Mixed as US-China Trade Talks Stall, Fed Holds Rates, and Euro Retreats.



      Trading Leveraged products is Risky


      US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Investor Sentiment


      Financial markets opened the midweek session on a cautious note as the latest round of US-China trade talks concluded in Stockholm without a definitive agreement. Both countries indicated willingness to extend the current tariff truce set to expire on August 12, but no final decision has been reached.


      China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng described the discussions as “constructive,” noting that both sides agreed to continue working toward an extension. Meanwhile, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed the topic was discussed but emphasised that any extension still requires approval from President Donald Trump. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that although the dialogue was ‘fulsome,’ the Chinese may have ‘jumped the gun’ in announcing a pause. Strategic concerns such as China’s purchase of Iranian oil and export of dual-use technology to Russia were also raised.


      Asian and US Markets React to Trade and Earnings Headwinds


      Asian equities responded with mixed movements. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 1.2%, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined marginally as losses in automakers like Toyota and Honda offset gains in tech stocks. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 and South Korea’s Kospi posted solid gains, while Taiwan’s Taiex and India’s Sensex advanced modestly.


      On Wall Street, US stock indices edged lower as traders digested corporate earnings and growing global uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4%. High-profile movers included SoFi Technologies, which surged 7.4%, and UPS, which plunged 9.2% on weaker-than-expected results. Health care giant UnitedHealth Group dropped 5.8% after disappointing earnings, while Novo Nordisk shed over 21% on lowered 2025 guidance for its Wegovy weight-loss drug.


      Federal Reserve Maintains Rates Amid Inflation and Tariff Uncertainty


      The Federal Reserve began its much-anticipated policy meeting with expectations firmly anchored in a decision to keep interest rates steady. Despite renewed pressure from President Trump for cuts to stimulate the economy, policymakers are expected to wait for further data on inflation and the economic impact of tariffs.


      Treasury yields slipped as investors adopted a risk-off approach. A report showing a decline in US job openings added to concerns over a potential economic slowdown, though consumer confidence data remained relatively stable. Traders now await official signals from the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments.


      Euro Rally Stalls After EU-US Tariff Deal


      The euro, once one of the strongest-performing currencies of 2025, has started to lose momentum. After hitting a four-year high of $1.1830, it fell sharply this week following the EU's decision to impose a 15% tariff on US imports. Though less severe than President Trump’s initial threats, the new rate is a sharp increase from pre-2025 levels.


      Currently trading around $1.1554, the euro is on track for its first monthly loss this year, down nearly 2% in July. Analysts note that the rally had been driven by optimism over German fiscal stimulus and weakness in the US dollar. However, with a US-EU trade agreement reducing uncertainty and strong US earnings supporting the greenback, that trend has reversed.


      Bruno Schneller of Erlen Capital Management commented that the euro is facing a “reality check,” as speculative positions near record highs are now being unwound. CFTC data shows euro bullish bets have reached $18.4 billion, the highest since December 2023.





      Commodities: Copper and Oil Slide as China Stimulus Lacks Detail


      Commodities markets were also under pressure. Copper prices dropped 0.2% to $9,782 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, while iron ore declined by 0.9% in Singapore. Early gains were erased after a policy update from China’s Politburo failed to provide clear fiscal or monetary stimulus plans, disappointing traders who had anticipated stronger support.


      The global copper market has also been rattled by the Trump administration’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1. With few details available, investors are bracing for widespread disruptions. Chile, the largest supplier of copper to the US, has requested exemptions, but US trade officials signalled that the measures would apply globally.


      Meanwhile, oil prices remained relatively flat. US crude hovered at $69.20 per barrel, while Brent crude edged up to $71.70. The broader energy market remains range-bound as traders await further developments in both monetary policy and international trade.


      Economic Data and Earnings to Drive Market Direction


      With the Fed expected to keep rates on hold, attention is shifting to upcoming economic reports and earnings data. The US is scheduled to release the latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, along with inflation readings that will offer deeper insight into the strength of the recovery. In Europe, economic growth figures will help shape expectations for further fiscal intervention.


      Investors are also awaiting any update on whether the US and China will officially extend their tariff truce, a development that could ease trade tensions and support global risk sentiment.


      What Traders Should Watch This Week


      As market volatility picks up, traders should monitor several key themes:


      * The Federal Reserve’s rate decision and Powell’s press conference
      * US jobs and inflation data
      * Confirmation or collapse of the US-China tariff pause
      * More Q2 earnings reports from major US corporations
      * Reactions to the EU-US trade agreement
      * Signals of additional stimulus from China


      With global macro conditions in flux and central bank policies on pause, the coming days could define the next phase of market momentum in stocks, commodities, and currencies.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Andria Pichidi
      HFMarkets



      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 19th August 2025.


      German Economy Between Tariffs and Investment Boost.



      Trading Leveraged products is Risky


      Economic Contraction in the Second Quarter


      The German economy is once again showing signs of strain, with activity contracting in the second quarter of 2025. Revised production figures revealed deeper weakness than initially reported, underlining the persistent struggles of Germany’s flagship manufacturing sector. The newly signed trade agreement with the United States is expected to bring additional headwinds, especially for automakers, while Berlin’s recently announced investment boost in infrastructure and defence will take time to filter through into actual production growth. At the same time, the surge in spending across the European Union may force the European Central Bank (ECB) to rethink its monetary policy sooner than expected.


      Manufacturing Sector Under Pressure


      For much of the past year, Germany’s growth figures have been flattered by businesses front-running anticipated U.S. tariffs. While GDP expanded during the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, much of that momentum came from exporters rushing orders ahead of tariff deadlines. As many analysts warned, this left a demand gap that became visible in the second quarter, when the economy contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. To make matters worse, first-quarter growth was revised lower to 0.3% from the previously reported 0.4%, confirming that overall momentum in the first half of the year was weaker than thought.


      The industrial sector remains the hardest hit. Preliminary data point to a sharp contraction, with production plunging 1.9% in June. Adding to the gloom, May’s figures were revised drastically lower to just 0.1% growth from an initial 1.2%. This leaves industrial activity at its weakest level since May 2020. Much of the revision came from updated reports in the automobile sector, where uncertainty over tariff regimes has clouded output and investment decisions.


      Tariffs Challenge German Automakers


      It is worth noting that seasonal factors, such as Easter falling later in the quarter, may have slightly distorted the numbers. However, the broader trend is clear: Germany’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings confirm the weakness, and ongoing uncertainty over future trade relations with the U.S. has weighed heavily on sentiment. While some clarity has emerged since the deal was signed, the reality is that new tariffs will curb exports, particularly in the critical auto industry, while also disrupting supply chains that are central to German manufacturing.


      German automakers, including BMW and Mercedes, had hoped for exemptions given their extensive U.S. investments. Reports even suggested that industry representatives travelled to Washington to propose a reciprocal arrangement: tariff-free imports of EU-made cars in exchange for every U.S.-produced vehicle shipped to Europe. Yet, such proposals failed to gain traction, and manufacturers are now facing the reality of a 15% tariff on U.S. imports of German goods. Behind the scenes, lobbying efforts are expected to continue, but for now, automakers must prepare for a more challenging trade environment.


      Berlin’s Investment Boost in Infrastructure and Defence


      Against this backdrop, Berlin’s new government has attempted to counteract the drag with an ambitious fiscal program. Having taken office in March, the administration moved swiftly to abandon strict debt limits and pledge a sweeping investment boost, with a particular focus on defence and infrastructure. These efforts build on the rearmament drive that began under the previous government in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but have now accelerated with additional funds.


      The results are already visible in the orders data, although volatility remains high due to the presence of large-ticket defence and infrastructure contracts. In June, orders fell by 1.0% month-on-month, following a 0.8% decline in May. Yet, thanks to large-scale contracts, overall orders rose by 3.1% in the second quarter, offering some hope for stronger growth later this year. Stripping out these large orders, however, paints a more modest picture, with demand rising just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. This suggests that any positive impact on GDP may not be immediate.


      Orders Data Show Mixed Signals


      A closer look at orders data reveals the deep impact of tariffs and shifting trade relations. Orders from abroad fell by 3.0% month-on-month in June, driven by a sharp 7.8% plunge in demand from non-Eurozone countries. By contrast, orders from within the Eurozone rose 5.2%, while domestic demand increased by 2.2%. The divergence underscores Germany’s growing dependence on European and local demand to cushion against the decline in U.S.-linked trade.


      Fiscal Expansion and ECB Policy Outlook


      The central question now is whether government spending can compensate for the tariff shock. If fiscal stimulus is supported by structural reforms and measures to encourage private investment, it could set the stage for a recovery. However, if higher public spending is not matched by efficiency gains and red-tape reduction, Germany’s fiscal expansion risks backfiring. Bond markets are already signalling concern, with the 30-year German yield climbing to its highest level since 2011.


      For the ECB, the shifting policy landscape complicates the outlook. The combination of higher German yields, broader EU defence spending, and resilient inflation pressures could force policymakers to halt the easing cycle earlier than planned. While another rate cut in December remains on the table, markets are increasingly speculating that the ECB may be compelled to raise rates again in the second half of 2025.


      Germany at a Crossroads


      In short, Germany finds itself at a crossroads. Tariffs and global trade shifts are undermining its traditional export model, while domestic investment is only just beginning to gain traction. Whether the government’s spending spree can offset external headwinds remains uncertain, but the stakes are high—not just for Germany, but for the entire Eurozone economy.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Andria Pichidi
      HFMarkets



      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 2nd September 2025.


      Is Gold About To Retrace Downwards?



      Trading Leveraged products is Risky


      Gold reaches a new all-time high, rising to $3,508, meaning Gold has risen in total almost 28% in 2025. If Gold holds onto its recent gains, it will be set for its second-strongest performance in the past decade. The upward price movement is being driven by market expectations of rate cuts in September. The market also believes the Federal Reserve will cut rates more frequently in 2026. However, another key concern for investors is the bond building between Russia, China and India, which may put geopolitical tensions on edge.


      Gold Reaches New All-Time High


      The reason for Gold’s upward trend is more clearly laid out in the ‘What’s Driving Gold’s Bullish Trend And Will It Hit a New High in 2025’ article.


      Monday was a national holiday, with financial institutions closed and trading volumes light. However, the day was not shy of developments prompting Gold to witness higher demand. Investors are processing Friday’s US Court of Appeals ruling, which declared tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump illegal. The court ruled that officials had improperly invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), noting that only Congress has the authority to apply this framework.


      For this reason, most tariffs could now be removed, excluding sector-specific ones, reducing taxed imports from 69% to 16%. This is expected to ease inflation pressures and shape future Federal Reserve policy. However, an appeal remains possible until October 14th, with Trump warning on Truth Social that the decision will place unprecedented strain on the US economy.


      Gold And The Upcoming NFP Report


      A big factor which is also starting to test Gold is the risk of a recession and the new alliance in the east (Russia, China and India). Regarding the possibility of a recession or general economic slowdown, the US employment data will be key. Analysts again expect the NFP Employment Change to read below 100,000 for a second consecutive month. The NFP change has not read below this level for two consecutive months since 2021 due to COVID.


      If the NFP figure indeed remains low and the Unemployment Rate increases to 4.3% or above, recession concerns are likely to return. As a result, Gold may continue to see higher demand for the upcoming weeks. In addition to this, weak employment data will likely trigger a rate cut in September, October and December. Currently, the possibility of 3 rate cuts in 2025 is 37.00%, but this may change if employment data deteriorates.


      For this reason, whether investors will deem Gold as slightly overbought and if consequently a retracement will form, depends on this week’s employment data. The NFP data will determine how many rate cuts we are likely to witness and if the US economy is indeed at risk of a recession. However, a concern for day traders is the rise in the US Dollar Index, which may trigger a short-term decline.


      In addition, the market is currently showing signs of a ‘risk-off’ appetite with all US indices declining as the European Trading Session opens.


      Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis


      Gold’s price is trading at the day’s open price as the asset declines as the European Session starts. The decline is currently forming a retracement, but is not indicating a new bearish trend. The price remains above the 75-Bar EMA, and the wave pattern continues to support buyers, maintaining control. However, the price is below the VWAP, which points to a potential retracement.


      Based on the Moving Average, a retracement could potentially decline to the range between $3,425.60 to $3,446.30. However, if the price rises above $3,493.90, the price movement will start to indicate bullish momentum.



      XAUUSD 12-Hour Chart


      Key Takeaway Points:


      * Gold hit a record high of $3,508, up nearly 28% in 2025, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts.
      * US tariffs imposed by Trump were ruled illegal, easing inflation risks but raising economic uncertainty.
      * Upcoming NFP data will be crucial; weak job numbers could boost recession fears and increase Gold demand.
      * Despite short-term retracement risks, Gold’s overall trend remains bullish, supported by technical indicators.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Michalis Efthymiou
      HFMarkets



      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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