HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 18th June 2025.


Global Markets Rattled by Escalating Middle East Tensions and Oil Price Surge.



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Global financial markets experienced heightened volatility so far today as escalating tensions between Israel and Iran spooked investors, pushing oil prices higher and sending mixed signals across equities, currencies, and bond markets.


Oil Prices Rise as Middle East Conflict Deepens


Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, building on Tuesday’s sharp 4% surge. US benchmark crude climbed to $75 per barrel. Investors are increasingly concerned that the conflict could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passageway for global crude exports. Although previous regional tensions have led to brief oil price spikes without long-term supply issues, the intensifying rhetoric this time is triggering stronger reactions.


Trump Issues Dire Warning to Iran


Investor fears were exacerbated after former President Donald Trump called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran, escalating tensions further. Within hours, Trump went from advocating a nuclear deal to demanding ‘UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,’ hinting at imminent US intervention. As geopolitical risks soared, demand for traditional safe havens such as the US dollar and Treasuries spiked.


Investors were also left disappointed by the lack of progress at the recent G7 summit in Canada. The group failed to make headway on trade issues, just weeks ahead of Trump’s July deadline for additional tariffs. Trump criticized both Japan and the EU for being ‘tough’ negotiators and for not offering satisfactory deals.


US Markets Close Lower; Asian Markets Mixed; Japan Shrugs Off Export Slump


Wall Street sank under the weight of surging oil prices and disappointing US retail sales data. The S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 5,982.72, the Dow dropped 0.7% to 42,215.80, and the Nasdaq slid 0.9% to 19,521.09. Weak consumer spending raised concerns that the backbone of the US economy might be faltering. Additionally, solar stocks took a hit after speculation that Congress may phase out clean energy tax credits. Enphase Energy dropped 24%, while First Solar lost 17.9%.


Asian equities painted a mixed picture. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% to 38,803.10 despite data showing an 11% drop in Japanese exports to the US, primarily due to tariffs on autos. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.2%, the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2%, and Australia's ASX 200 lost 0.2%. South Korea’s Kospi managed a 0.6% gain.


Fed Meeting in Focus; Minimal Forecast Adjustments Expected


The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting, with markets broadly expecting no rate changes. Forecast updates due Wednesday are likely to include modest GDP upgrades but little change to inflation and unemployment projections. The Fed’s previous dot plot suggested two rate cuts per year through mid-2027, and little deviation is expected in the June update.


Dollar Finds Footing Amid Global Jitters


The US dollar regained its safe-haven appeal, rebounding nearly 1% against the yen, Swiss franc, and euro since late last week. While structural challenges tied to Trump’s trade policies have weighed on the greenback in 2025, investors continue to favour the dollar in times of global stress. The dollar edged down 0.2% to 144.90 yen on Wednesday, while the euro ticked up 0.2% to $1.150, and the British pound strengthened to $1.346 following softer-than-expected UK inflation data.


Outlook: Risk Sentiment Hinges on Geopolitics and Fed Clarity


Markets remain on edge as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show no sign of abating. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the Fed’s policy statement and projections for clues on the central bank’s outlook. As uncertainty swirls, volatility is expected to persist across commodities, currencies, and equities in the short term.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th July 2025.


Symmetrical Triangle Support: Gold Rebound Imminent?



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Gold’s price comes under pressure for a fourth day, primarily due to positive US data and a stronger Dollar. The US employment data from the previous week is the main driver of a weaker price as rate cuts become less likely and sentiment rises. Though both technical and fundamental analysts are contemplating whether the trend will suddenly change.


Gold Continues to Decline


The bearish price movement came after surprisingly positive employment data on July 3rd. The latest employment report revealed robust growth, with the NFP change expanding by 147,000. This figure far surpassed the 111,000 forecast and even exceeded May's 144,000, largely attributed to significant hiring in the civil service (73,000) and healthcare (39,000). As a result, the Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.1%, though Average Hourly Earnings saw a marginal decrease.


Gold has also come under pressure from the strengthening US Dollar and the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar Index has risen more than 1% over the past week, pressuring Gold due to its inverse correlation. The market also now expects a more hawkish Federal Reserve and this can be seen through indications available by stock exchanges. For example, the Chicago exchange previously stated a 6% possibility of an interest rate pause in September. That figure has now risen to 34%.


Although traders should note that this may change depending on tonight's FOMC Meeting Minutes. Gold price movement will also depend on the current developments within the Oil market, geopolitics, earnings season and the US trade policy.


What Could Trigger Gold to Rebound?


While geopolitical tensions seem to be improving, other factors suggest potential for an upside. Crucially, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran's nuclear program, remain a significant wild card. Any escalation could swiftly push Gold prices higher, as seen in the first 2 weeks of June 2025. According to analysts, this remains an issue as experts believe Iran will continue to enrich uranium and no agreement has been made with the US so far.


In addition to this, despite minor deadline extensions from July 9th, the Trump administration's ongoing pursuit of new 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea (effective August 1st). This continues to generate significant market volatility and uncertainty, which if continues, may support Gold’s rebound. These impending tariffs are particularly impactful given both nations' considerable trade deficits with the US.


Another major issue is the EU, which is yet to make an agreement in principle with the US. The US has proposed a deal to the EU with a 10% baseline tariff on most goods, offering exemptions for sectors like aircraft, spirits, and cosmetics. However, the U.S. is currently unwilling to exempt sensitive industries like cars, steel, and aluminium, which the EU has strongly requested. If no agreement is made, the ‘risk-off’ sentiment can support another bullish trend for Gold.


Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Technical Analysis Show Symmetrical Triangle


There's a strong preference for buying in all types of contracts. Investors who use actual money hold significantly more ‘buy’ positions (167,386 thousand) than ‘sell’ positions (36,902 thousand). Last week, buyers increased their holdings by 4,217 thousand deals, while sellers increased theirs by 1,925 thousand, confirming a global trend towards investment.


In terms of technical analysis, most indicators continue to signal downward price movement. However, on the daily chart, the price is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern and trading at the support level. Therefore, traders will monitor if the price reacts to this support level and if the US Dollar weakens throughout the day.



XAUUSD Daily Chart


Key Takeaway Points:


* Gold's price is falling, driven by strong US job data, a strengthening US Dollar and low rate cut expectations.
* Geopolitical risks and new US tariffs could trigger a Gold rally if this escalates to trigger a risk-off sentiment.
* Gold's technical charts show a symmetrical triangle pattern, and the price is trading close to its support level. However, trend indicators point towards bearish momentum.
* Despite Trump’s extensions for trade agreements, the market remains cautious as no agreement has yet been made with Korea, Japan and the EU.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 24th July 2025.


SNP500 Hits New Highs Backed by Strong Earnings and Trade Optimism.



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The SNP500 again renews its all-time highs after finding support from Alphabet stocks, NVIDIA, JP Morgan and Broadcom. The SNP500 is now trading 8.40% higher in 2025, more or less matching the performance of the NASDAQ. The main driver of the current upward trend is recent quarterly earnings reports and the US-Japan trade deal.


Alphabet Quarterly Earnings Report


There were both positive and negative data from Alphabet’s earnings report, but the stock rose 1.72% after market close. The quarterly report showed the company’s revenue and operating income rose 14%, cloud revenue 32% and the earnings per share rose 22% to $2.31. The figures continue to beat projections, which is one of the reasons why the stock has risen 1.72% and more than 14% over the past month.


Google Cloud revenue rose 32% to $13.6 billion, driven by strong growth in core GCP products, AI infrastructure, and generative AI solutions. AI remains a key driver, with Alphabet’s Gemini model now integrated across its cloud services and productivity tools. Although still behind OpenAI’s ChatGPT in user adoption, Gemini is helping Alphabet attract more enterprise clients.


In addition to this, the search figures also remain steady and within the projected range. According to the report, Google searches make up approximately 90% of the global searches. However, one of the main negatives from the report is AI spending compared to ROI (return on investment).


Alphabet reported $22.4 billion in capital spending, well above the $18.2 billion expected. It also raised its 2025 capex forecast from $75 billion to $85 billion, highlighting its aggressive investment in data centres, AI chips, and infrastructure. If the return on investment from AI products read higher, experts believe the stock increase would have been higher than the current rise. Nonetheless, the increase continues to support the NASDAQ.


SNP500 Components and Stocks


Of the SNP500’s most influential 15 stocks, 74% rose in value on Wednesday. In addition to this, the VIX index continues to decline, as does the Put and Call Ratio. All these factors provide strong buy signals for the SNP500 and stocks in general. The main stocks, bar Alphabet stocks, which are supporting the recent upward price movements, are NVIDIA, Broadcom and JP Morgan.


NVIDIA is the most influential stock for the SNP500, holding a weight of more than 7.00%. NVIDIA stocks rose 2.25% on Wednesday and a further 1.20% after market close. Broadcom stocks, which hold a weight of 2.33%, are one of the best-performing stocks on Thursday.


Both the technology sector and banking stocks continue to perform well while defensive stocks underperform due to the ‘risk-on’ appetite of the market. The higher investor sentiment is mainly being prompted by the US-Japan trade deal.


SNP500 Technical Analysis



SNP500 5-Minute Chart


The SNP500 continues to form higher highs and higher lows, ensuring the wave ensuing continues to point to an upward trend. The price also remains above the trend-line, the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and in the ‘buy’ zone of most oscillators. However, the price is trading below the day’s VWAP, and order flow currently points towards limited buy demand.


For this reason, the outlook for the SNP500 remains bullish, but bullish momentum needs to be regained. European PMI reports from earlier this morning read positively, if the global PMI data continues to beat expectations, bullish momentum may gain speed. The price is also close to the 200-bar EMA, which can act as a support level. Traders will monitor if the price bounces off this level.


Key Takeaway Levels:


* The SNP500 hits new all-time highs, driven by Alphabet, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and JP Morgan.
* Alphabet’s earnings beat forecasts, with strong cloud growth and steady search performance boosting investor confidence.
* Capital spending rose to $22.4B, with AI investments raising concerns over return on investment.
* Technical Analysis remain bullish, but momentum needs to recover; global PMI data could reignite buying pressure.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 14th August 2025.


Investors Flock to Riskier Assets After Soft US Inflation Data.



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Asian equity markets were mixed on Thursday, taking a pause after several sessions of strong gains driven by expectations of lower US interest rates. US stock futures also edged slightly lower, while Bitcoin surged over 3% to a new all-time high above $123,000, according to CoinDesk.


Asian Markets Pause After Rally


Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.4% to 42,657.94, as investors took profits following its record-breaking run. The yen strengthened after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg that Japan was “behind the curve” in raising interest rates, prompting speculation the Bank of Japan may be forced to act sooner. The dollar slipped to 146.55 yen from 147.39 yen, while the euro eased marginally to $1.1703.


Across the region, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dipped less than 0.1% to 25,597.85, while China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.2% to 3,690.88. South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.3%, Taiwan’s TAIEX dropped 0.4%, and India’s Sensex inched up 0.1%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.5% to 8,871.80. Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management summed it up with a colorful metaphor: “Asian markets opened today like a party that ran out of champagne before midnight, the music still playing, but the dance floor thinning out.”


Dollar Weakens on Rate Cut Bets


The US dollar lingered at multi-week lows against major peers as traders ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates next month. The greenback fell the most against the yen after Bessent suggested the Bank of Japan may need to raise rates again soon, while the Fed should move aggressively in the opposite direction.


The dollar dropped as much as 0.7% to 146.35 yen, its weakest since July 24. Sterling reached its highest level since late July at $1.3590, while the euro traded at $1.1703, just below Wednesday’s peak. Traders now see a Fed rate cut on September 17 as a near certainty, with some even pricing in a 50-basis-point move.


Analysts say the shift in sentiment comes as signs of a cooling US labor market meet political pressure for policy easing. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates sooner, while Bessent openly called for “a series of rate cuts” beginning with a half-point move.





Australia’s Labour Market Surprises.


Australia’s job market strengthened in July, with employment rising by 24,500 in line with forecasts, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2% from a 3½-year high of 4.3%. Full-time positions surged by 60,500, driven largely by record female participation.


The stronger data lifted the Australian dollar to as high as $0.65685 before trimming gains. With wage growth steady at 3.4%, well below 2023 peaks, inflationary pressure from pay remains limited. This reduces the urgency for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates again in September, although markets still expect a 25 bps reduction in November if inflation cools further.


Wall Street Extends Record Run


US equities continued their rally on Wednesday, buoyed by expectations of a September rate cut. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to a record 6,466.58, the Dow Jones jumped 1% to 44,922.27, and the Nasdaq added 0.1% to an all-time high of 21,713.14. Falling Treasury yields supported rate-sensitive sectors, with homebuilders PulteGroup and Lennar each gaining more than 5%.


In a major market debut, cryptocurrency exchange Bullish surged 84% on its first trading day after a $10 billion IPO, closing at $68 a share. Still, some analysts warn that valuations may be overstretched after the steep gains since April, with tariff-driven inflation risks lingering in the background.


Bitcoin Leads Risk-On Sentiment


Bitcoin climbed to $124,480.82 in the latest session before settling near $123,000, marking its first record high since mid-July. The rally has been fueled by expectations of Fed easing, a weaker dollar, increased institutional inflows, and a friendlier regulatory climate under Trump, who recently signed an executive order allowing crypto assets in 401(k) retirement accounts.


Ether also gained, trading near its highest since November 2021. Year-to-date, ether is up 42%, outpacing bitcoin’s 32% advance. Analysts say a sustained break above $125,000 could open the door for a move toward $150,000.





Looking Ahead


Markets are awaiting US wholesale inflation figures for July, expected to rise slightly to 2.4% from 2.3% in June. In Europe, traders will monitor the eurozone’s flash Q2 GDP and the UK’s preliminary Q2 GDP. Attention will also turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at a central bank symposium in Wyoming, where investors will be looking for clues on the September policy decision.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 28th August 2025.


SNP500 Hits New All-Time High, But Is NVIDIA Driving the Rally?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The SNP500 quickly declined 0.69% in the minutes after NVIDIA released their Quarterly Earnings Report. However, stocks are now seeing a strong rebound, correcting back upwards and closing close to yesterday’s highs. If the SNP500 can maintain momentum and increase above yesterday’s highs, the index will be trading at its all-time high.


Currently, the NASDAQ is the best-performing US index, trading with almost a 2% higher gain. However, the SNP500 performance over the past 15 days has outperformed the NASDAQ due to concerns over the current AI trend. The SNP500’s gains on Wednesday and this morning are mainly being supported by technology stocks such as Microsoft and Broadcom. The energy sector, led by companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, is also contributing to the rise.


NVIDIA Beat Earnings Expectations But Still Declined. Here’s What You Need To Know.


When NVIDIA releases its earnings report, the market expects extreme volatility, measuring a minimum of a 5% change in the price of the stock. However, the stock only fell 3.14% after the report was made public. Therefore, traders should note that the lack of volatility indicates that investors are not necessarily disappointed in the earnings figures.



SNP500 15-Minute Chart


NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share were $1.05, higher than the previous expectations of $1.00. The company's revenue was also $68 million higher than previous projections. Although the company exceeded previous projections, some investors may question why the stock is moving lower. The modest decline appears to be primarily driven by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Chinese market. Also, investors note that the uncertainties within the market have not provided the confidence to purchase the stock at such a high price.


Nvidia’s 2nd quarter 2026 results showed its data centre unit firmly driving the global AI boom. CFO Colette Kress projected $3–$4 trillion in AI infrastructure spending by the end of 2029. Revenue rose 56% to $30.04B, marking nine straight quarters of 50%+ growth since the AI surge in 2023, though this was the slowest pace in that period. However, the slowdown did not set off any alarm bells as NVIDIA was unable to sell certain chips to China. This is something the company is hoping will change in the upcoming quarters.


Can The SNP500 Maintain its Gains?


If NVIDIA stocks see an increased demand and investors look to take advantage of the lower price, the stock can support the SNP500. NVIDIA stocks currently hold a weight of 7.61% and are the most influential stock by more than 1%. However, will investors continue to go long on the SNP500 while certain negative conditions remain?


The latest concern for investors is the 50% tariffs which the White House has slapped on India for purchasing large amounts of Russian Oil. The US is claiming it indirectly funds Russia’s military campaign. On the other hand, India claims the US is hypocritical as it continues to purchase certain commodities from Russia. The White House trade adviser, Peter Navarro, told journalists that there is a possible 25% reduction in these tariffs if India halts imports of discounted Russian oil; however, this is not likely.


However, a positive note regarding tariffs is Mexico’s plans to increase tariffs on Chinese Goods after months of pressure from the US. Mexico is hoping for more favourable trade with the US after agreeing to do so.


According to most analysts, the SNP500 can maintain momentum only if trade tensions do not continue to escalate. It also depends on whether the Federal Reserve follows through with its plan to cut the Federal Funds rate by 0.50% by the end of the year.


Key Takeaway Points:


* The SNP500 dipped after NVIDIA’s earnings but rebounded near record highs, supported by tech and energy stocks.
* NVIDIA beat expectations on EPS and revenue, yet its stock declined due to China market uncertainty and valuation concerns.
* Nvidia’s data centre growth drives the AI boom, with $3–$4T in projected spending by 2029, though Q2 growth slowed.
* US tariffs on India add pressure, with SNP500 momentum hinging on easing trade tensions and a Fed rate cut.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 25th July 2025.


Euro Strength Persists Amid ECB’s Temporary Policy Pause.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The best-performing currency of 2025 is the Euro and continues to gain after the European Central Bank’s rate decision. After the ECB’s rate decision and press conference, the currency rose in value against all currencies. This also includes the Australian Dollar, which has seen the strongest gains this week so far. Why is the Euro witnessing strong gains despite multiple rate cuts, and what has the ECB said about the Euro’s strength?


The Euro's Gains In 2025


The best-performing currencies in 2025 have been the Euro and Swiss Franc, which have both seen multiple rate cuts. Traditionally, currencies witnessing a dovish monetary policy tend to experience a weakening currency. So what is different here?


The main reasons for the bullish price movement fall into three categories:


* European Fiscal Policy
* Portfolio Flow and Euro Hedges
* US Dollar Weakness


These three factors are overpowering the negative impact of the lower interest rates. The European Union in 2025 has changed its fiscal policy rules related to borrowing and stimulus programs related to defence spending. Most investors deem this as a turn towards a fiscal expansionary policy while not triggering budget deficit concerns. One of the stimulus fund programs which are in the spotlight is the $500 billion German Fund, which aims to boost infrastructure and defence.


In addition to this, global investors are looking to spread the risk of overexposure to US equities. As a result, the natural alternatives are European stocks such as the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50 and CAC. As interest in these stocks grows, demand for the euro increases as well. Furthermore, companies still investing in US indices are now using the Euro to hedge against the risks of a weakening Dollar, which could result in gains from the original investment. Previously, due to Dollar's strength, this was not practised with US Equity Investments.


European Equity demand and euro-hedge positions are also increasing the demand for the Euro, and this also ties in with a weaker US Dollar. The US Dollar is currently the weakest currency of 2025, declining more than 9.50%. The main concern for investors is the trade policy uncertainty and the worsening US fiscal deficit. Investors are turning to the Euro as an alternative.


The Euro Central Bank’s Rate Decision and Press Conference


As European inflation is under control, the European Central Bank is likely to continue cutting interest rates in 2025. The main reason for the pause is uncertainty before the trade negotiations deadline on August 1st. Due to this, the ECB opted to keep the Main Refinancing Rate at 2.15%.


President Lagarde noted that although inflation expectations are ‘firmly anchored’ near 2%, there are risks in both directions. Investors also note that the ECB President voiced concern over the risk of the Euro becoming too expensive and its domino effect on the economy. Many experts believe this also indicates the ECB would like to cut by at least a further two occasions.


EURNZD - Technical Analysis and Major Gains



EURNZD 4-Hour Chart


The Euro is witnessing its strongest gains against the New Zealand Dollar. The EURNZD fell to a key support level and also formed a double bottom. As a result, the Euro quickly gained bullish momentum and continued to rise on Friday.


The price of the EURNZD is trading above the 75-bar EMA and in the ‘buy’ zone of most oscillators. In addition to this, the exchange has been forming higher highs and lows on smaller timeframes. Moreover, the exchange rate remains below the major resistance levels while maintaining momentum. Resistance levels can currently be seen at 1.95830 and 1.96475.


Key Takeaway Levels:


* The Euro is 2025's top-performing currency, gaining despite multiple ECB rate cuts.
* Strong European fiscal policy and stimulus programs are boosting investor confidence in the Euro.
* Investors are shifting to European equities and using the Euro to hedge against a weakening US Dollar.
* The ECB held rates at 2.15% but signalled more interest rate cuts in 2025.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 15th August 2025.


Producer Inflation Hits 2-Year High, Fed Still Seen Cutting.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The US Producer Price Inflation rises to its highest level since April 2022 triggering a sudden decline in stocks. Consumer inflation previously came in lower than expected. Economists still expect a rate cut in September 2025, so investors re-entered at the lower price. Due to this the NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500 are all trading higher. A big factor of the day's fundamental analysis will be the Russia-US talks in Alaska.


NASDAQ Regains Losses But Trails Behind


The NASDAQ has been the best performing US index of 2025 and the previous years. However, since the Producer Price Index, the NASDAQ is struggling. The NASDAQ is still trading higher than the decline triggered by yesterday’s PPI but weaker than the SNP500 and Dow Jones.


Prior to the PPI announcement the NASDAQ’s performance in 2025 was trading 5% higher than the SNP500 and 10% higher than the Dow Jones. The NASDAQ is also exposed to markets outside of the technology sector. As a result, investors are opting to invest in the SNP500 and Dow Jones which are known to be less risky and have a lower possibility of being overbought.


Nonetheless, all indices are being positively influenced by the Federal Reserve’s potential move to cut interest rates and today’s meeting between President Trump and President Putin. If the meeting bears fruit, the market sentiment is likely to continue rising. Currently, on Friday 15th, 44% of the most influential stocks are increasing in value, which is relatively low. However, Amazon, Microsoft and NVIDIA are trading higher, supporting the NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500.


Dow Jones and SNP500 Outperform The NASDAQ


The Dow Jones is trading 0.76% higher and the SNP500 0.24%. The Dow Jones is performing particularly well as investors believe the index may be trading below its intrinsic value and due to its exposure to defensive stocks. The USA30 is now trading at an all-time high and higher than the resistance levels which can be seen from earlier in the year and 2024.


However, the price will largely depend on the outcome of today’s meeting between President Putin and President Trump as well as the follow up meeting with Ukraine’s leader Zelensky. In addition to this, the release of NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report will also be vital to all US indices.


Lastly, Warren Buffet is known to have recently purchased stocks within the Dow Jones which have declined in 2025. Mr Buffet is known to purchase stocks which are trading below their true value.



Dow Jones 30-Minutes Chart


The US, Federal Reserve And Inflation.


Weekly labor market data showed Initial Jobless Claims at 224,000, slightly below forecasts and the prior reading, while Continuing Claims fell to 1.953 million. Despite the weekly improvement, the broader labor market remains under pressure according to economists. However, this is not necessarily being shown in the actual data. As of yet, the NFP reading is not triggering any alarm bells, but is known as a lagging indicator.


July wholesale inflation surged, with PPI up 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, far above estimates. Core PPI matched the same gains. The data signal rising inflation risks and lessen chances of near-term Fed easing, though Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee still sees scope for policy softening this fall. Mr Goolsbee told journalists, the risks to employment is a particular concern for him.


Key Takeaway Points:


* US Producer Price Inflation hits highest since April 2022, triggering a sudden stock market drop.
* NASDAQ underperforms SNP500 and Dow after PPI data despite strong 2025 gains.
* Dow Jones reaches all-time high on defensive stock exposure and perceived undervaluation.
* Rising PPI reduces odds of near-term Fed easing despite some officials still favoring policy softening.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 29th August 2025.


What’s Driving Gold’s Bullish Trend And Will It Hit a New High in 2025?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Gold increases in value for a third consecutive day as the market prices in lower interest rates. The Gross Domestic Product indicates that the US economy continues to grow, which, under usual circumstances, would not pressure the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates. However, the latest comments from the FOMC member reassured investors that rate cuts are coming despite the higher GDP figures.


The Federal Reserve and Interest Rates


The price of Gold is trading at its highest price since July 23rd after increasing 3.30% over the previous days. The bullish price movement is partially driven by the market’s risk appetite, which is becoming more shaky, but a large part is also due to the monetary policy. The latest comments from Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, are that he will vote for a 0.25% cut in September.


According to Christopher Waller, there continue to be signs of the US employment sector weakening, and he believes the Fed will act before the employment sector truly deteriorates. The employment sector is known to be a lagging factor and normally is one of the last points of the economy to react. Therefore, many members of the Federal Open Market Committee believe a proactive cut is necessary.


A big factor in the decision of the Federal Reserve will be next week’s employment data for August. Particularly, economists will be focusing on the Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate. Most members of the FOMC said their decision will depend on August’s figures. Yesterday, Christopher Waller told journalists a 25 basis point cut would suffice unless August’s employment data triggers further concerns.


Currently, Reuters survey concerns that the market expects the NFP Employment Change to read 78,000 to 80,000. The survey also confirms projections that the US Unemployment Rate will rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. The projects alone paint a worrying picture which can support the price of Gold. However, if the figures are weaker, a 50-basis-point rate cut would become a possibility, and Gold may experience significant gains.


Lastly, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit Thursday, arguing that President Donald Trump lacks the authority to remove her. The case sets up a legal battle that could test the Fed’s longstanding independence. The conflict is another reason why investors are again increasing their exposure to Gold.


The US, Russia, India And China


A concern for analysts monitoring the global political sphere is the latest summit between Russia, China and India. The main question being asked by the market is how the US will react. Will the move to strengthen ties between India, Russia and China trigger another ‘trade conflict’, applying further strain on the global supply chain and consumer demand?


Prime Minister Narendra Modi is currently on a high-stakes tour of China, Japan, and Russia to strengthen ties. This seems to be a clear reaction to the 50% tariffs being applied to India from the US. After securing $68B in Japanese investments, the Indian Prime Minister heads to the SCO summit in Tianjin, his first China visit in seven years, to meet Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, signalling a shift in US–India relations.


China, India and Russia currently make up the world’s second, fifth and eleventh largest economies. The three countries make up 22% of the world’s economy. This still falls short of the US, which is the largest economy at over 26% of the global total. The summit between the 3 is resulting in a lower risk appetite, which is supporting Gold.


XAUUSD - Technical Analysis



XAUUSD 15-Minute Chart


The price of Gold is currently trading 0.22% lower but is not triggering any sell signals. The downward price movement is so far only forming a retracement as the commodity continues to form higher highs and lows. The price is also trading above the 50.00 level on the RSI and not far below the VWAP. Therefore, the sell bias remains weak.


On the 2-hour chart, the price remains above the trendline and above moving averages, indicating a bullish bias. However, investors wait for bullish momentum to be regained. Based on the whole retracement, the price increasing above $3,416.75 will trigger buy signals. Whereas, the current bullish breakouts indicate a buy signal at $3413.80. Many analysts believe the price of Gold could potentially move out of the current recurring price range and reach a new all-time high.


Key Takeaway Points:


* Gold is climbing for a third straight day as markets expect Fed rate cuts despite strong GDP growth.
* FOMC member Christopher Waller signalled support for a 0.25% rate cut in September, with the decision hinging on August’s jobs data.
* Growing global tensions, especially India’s closer ties with China and Russia, are boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
* Technicals show gold remains in a bullish trend, with analysts eyeing a potential breakout to new all-time highs above $3,416.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.