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[HFM]

Date: 13th June 2025.


Israel Attacks Iran in An Overnight Strike: Oil Rises 13%!



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Israel launched attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, military leadership and key Iranian scientists according to reports. The attack took place overnight and involved more than 200 Israeli fighter jets which bombed more than 100 targets. The US has made a statement publicly advising the country was not involved. In addition to this, other key partners such as the UK and France are pushing for de-escalation. How is the market reacting so far?


Crude Oil Prices Jump 13%


The asset which is seeing the most volatility is understandably Crude Oil as Iran is the 7th highest producer of Crude Oil after Iraq. Currently, the price of Crude Oil is trading 5.00% higher, but earlier in the day it was 13% higher. Crude Oil rose to a high of $77.64 per barrel and to its highest price since January.


Due to extremely high volatility in a short period, it is understandable that the asset became oversold triggering a decline in the past 3 hours. Currently, the bearish momentum continues to remain the driving force in the short term. The 200-period SMA continues to act as a trend-line meaning the price may continue to decline to $70.50 before finding support. However, this would also depend on the upcoming developments.


According to reports, the Israeli army not only attacked nuclear facilities, military leadership and key Iranian scientists, but also the country’s ability to instantly retaliate. As a result, Iran was limited to using drones to retaliate. According to army experts, drones can travel long distances and cause significant damage, but they travel extremely slowly. The Israeli government is advising they are currently shooting down drones over Jordan and Syria.



Crude Oil Daily Chart


If the conflict was to escalate, the price of Oil could regain bullish momentum as it would trigger a fear of supply chain disruptions and lower production levels.


SNP500 - Developments Trigger Low Risk Appetite!


The SNP500 fell as much as 1.98% before retracing higher. Currently, the SNP500 is trading 1.20% lower and the NASDAQ 1.33%. The downward price movement is being triggered by 2 factors. The first is the conflict between Israel and Iran prompting a lower risk appetite. The second is the significantly higher oil prices which can apply upward pressure on inflation.


The future price movements of the SNP500 and stock market in general will depend on how the current situation escalates. If the two countries escalate, the price of Oil may continue to rise while the stock market potentially could take a larger hit. If downward pressure increases, a key support level for the index could be seen at $5,791.24. This level may act as a target for individuals looking to speculate downward momentum in the medium-term.


Traders should note that even though the index is yet to witness significant lasting volatility, most risk indicators point to a ‘risk off’ sentiment. For example, the VIX Index currently trades 9% higher.


Gold - Safe Haven Asset Witness Increased Demand!


The price of Gold has not only risen due to the Israeli strikes on Iran, but has been increasing in value for 3 consecutive days. Originally, lower inflation data drove the upward price movement, prompting a weaker US Dollar. Gold is inversely correlated with the US Dollar. However, now the commodity’s safe haven status is coming into play as institutions look to lower the risk of their portfolios.


Key Takeaway Points:


* Oil prices spiked 13% due to the Israeli strikes, reaching $77.64, with potential decline to $70.50 if bearish momentum continues.
* The SNP500 fell 1.98% as the conflict escalated, and rising oil prices raised inflation concerns.
* Gold has been increasing for the last three days, driven by the weaker US Dollar and its safe-haven appeal amid the crisis.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 7th July 2025.


Oil Prices Drop But Bullish Potential Remains!



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


OPEC members confirm they will increase oil production and output in July and August. As a result, the price of Oil fell 1.40% on Monday, but almost regains its previous losses. According to reports, the higher output is an attempt by OPEC members to regain market share. Oil has largely been trading sideways since June 24th after the 16% decline. What’s next for Crude Oil prices?

US Oil / Crude Oil Chart


OPEC and New Oil Output!


Members of OPEC have seen tensions rise as certain members have been producing more oil than others. As a result, the main topic for discussion during yesterday’s meeting was an increase across all members. This development was the main reason for the day’s bearish price gap.


As Bloomberg reports, Riyadh is trying to win back lost market share by asking to continue the production quota adjustment of 411,000 barrels per day in August, and possibly in the months thereafter. Saudi Aramco has already lowered the price of Arab Light crude for Asian buyers by $0.20 in July. At the same time, eight OPEC+ countries, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman, are slowly lifting their voluntary production cuts, raising output by another 386,000 barrels per day.


Morgan Stanley analysts expect Brent Crude to fall to around $60.20 and Crude Oil to $58.80, with a supply surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026.


Potential For Regained Bullish Momentum


Regardless of the bearish price gap, traders should note that bullish momentum is being regained. According to many economists, the potential for higher oil prices continues to linger at the back of traders’ minds despite the US actively looking to bring prices lower. This includes stronger-than-expected economic data, particularly from the employment sector.


The US latest employment report came as a shock to investors, and the country’s unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since March and significantly lower than the market’s projections. In addition to this, the NFP Employment Change read 35,000 higher than expectations. Higher economic and employment data can justify a higher oil output and keep prices high.


On the other hand, the economy and its outlook will significantly depend on global trade policy. Currently, investors look for confirmation on which countries will see higher tariffs imposed. The current deadline is July 9th. If the policy change triggers a bearish market, the price of Oil is likely to fall.


Lastly, another factor which investors are contemplating is the ability of Iran to enrich and produce nuclear weapons. According to the Pentagon, the recent attacks on Iran set back the nuclear program by 6-12 months. Also, most experts believe the US, Israel and Iran will not be able to make an agreement on the country’s nuclear policy. As a result, is the conflict simply going to resume at a later point? If so, the geo-political tensions could push prices higher as they did in June 2025.


Key Takeaway Points:


* OPEC+ is increasing oil output in July and August to regain market share, leading to an initial dip in prices.
* Despite the output increase, a potential for bullish momentum remains due to stronger-than-expected data, especially in the US employment sector.
* Upcoming global trade policy changes (July 9th deadline) could trigger a bearish market and cause oil prices to fall if new tariffs are imposed.
* Ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program could push oil prices higher again if conflict resumes.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 22nd July 2025.


Gold Gains Momentum: What’s Driving Gold Higher?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Gold saw its strongest bullish price movement since June 13th, pushing the price above the previous swing high. Due to the bullish momentum from Monday, Gold is now officially witnessing a bullish trend pattern. The commodity has formed three consecutive ‘higher highs’ on July 3rd, July 14th and July 21st. What is driving the upward price movement?


Federal Reserve and Deutsche Bank


Even though most economists do not believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month, some dovish comments persist. Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a rate cut in July, arguing that slowing economic momentum and inflation from tariffs are likely temporary. This view contrasts with other Fed officials who prefer a more cautious, wait-and-see stance.


Nonetheless, the comments have resulted in a weaker US Dollar and bullish sentiment towards Gold. Previously, the Federal Reserve was advising that inflation from tariffs would not be temporary. A stance which is slowly changing as inflation is slow to react to the current tariffs imposed. Experts currently advise that a July rate cut is highly unlikely due to the strong employment data. However, the possibility of a September rate cut is increasing and is supporting demand for Gold.


Furthermore, Deutsche Bank, whilst talking to journalists, warned of summer volatility, driven by tariff risks, low liquidity, and political uncertainty around the August 1st deadline. This is yet to have a negative impact on stocks, but the market’s cautiousness is likely supporting demand for Gold.


Tariffs and The US Dollar


The dovish comments from the Federal Reserve and uncertainty regarding the trade policy is resulting in a weaker US Dollar. The US Dollar Index fell to a weekly low and is not showing signs of maintaining bullish momentum. As a result, the US Dollar’s weakness supports Gold, which is inversely correlated with the Dollar.


The global uncertainties also continue to support Gold prices, which act as a safe haven asset for investors and institutions. Reports show that global central banks, particularly China, Russia, Turkey and BRIC nations, continue to increase their exposure away from the US Dollar. The next 8 days leading up to the August 1st deadline will be key for Gold traders.


Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis


Gold on Tuesday is decreasing in value, giving up some gains from Monday. However, the decline is only forming a retracement and so far is only 33% of the bullish impulse wave from yesterday. The average retracement size is 0.90% which would mean the instrument still has room to manoeuvere based on the traditional retracement size. On many occasions, the price will retrace back to the breakout level. The breakout size can be seen at $3,374.55.


Nonetheless, traders should note that the price is trading clearly higher than the trendline and the key moving averages. Currently, Gold is trading below the VWAP, meaning the price is seeing bearish momentum, but also at a competitive price to buy.



XAUUSD 2-Hour Chart


Key Takeaway Levels:


* Gold entered a confirmed bullish trend, forming three higher highs driven by strong momentum from July 21st.
* The Fed takes a dovish turn, as comments from Governor Waller and uncertainty weaken the Dollar and increase Gold demand.
* Tariff risks and global uncertainty, including a cautious market ahead of the August 1st deadline, are fueling gold buying. Central banks are also diversifying away from the USD, adding to the demand.
* Technical signals remain supportive, with gold holding above key trendlines and averages. The retracement from Tuesday appears mild and could present new buying opportunities.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 11th August 2025.


USDJPY Analysis: Yen Weakens Amid US Tariff Pressure and BOJ Policy Signals.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The USDJPY currency pair has been in the spotlight after the Japanese Yen weakened against the US Dollar. This movement was triggered by several key factors that are currently attracting market attention. On Friday, USDJPY strengthened by +0.39%, indicating selling pressure on the Yen. The main concerns driving this weakening are the potential impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy, as well as less than satisfactory domestic economic data.


Factors Driving Yen Weakening


Weaker Japanese Economic Data - Japanese household spending data for June, which only rose +1.3% (y/y), far below market expectations of +2.7%, sent a dovish signal. This figure suggests that Japanese consumers are holding back, likely due to US tariff pressure and rising inflation. This situation reduces pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates soon.


Rising US Bond Yields - Higher US government bond yields on Friday made the US dollar more attractive to investors. This increase negatively impacted the yen, known as a safe-haven currency.


Hawkish Sentiment from BOJ Meeting: Hope Amid Challenges


Nevertheless, there are several signals that could potentially be positive catalysts for the yen in the long term.


Slightly Hawkish BOJ Meeting Minutes - The minutes of the July 30-31 BOJ meeting showed differences of opinion among board members. Some suggested gradual interest rate hikes to anticipate future inflationary pressures. One member even hinted at the possibility of a rate hike as early as late 2025, depending on the impact of US tariffs.


Positive Signals from Economic Surveys - The EcoWatchers Japan Outlook Survey rose to 47.3 in July, reaching a six-month high. This reading was stronger than expected, indicating optimism among economic observers. This positive signal could be a bullish boost for the Yen.


USDJPY Technical Analysis: Towards Key Levels


Technically, the USDJPY is in a corrective phase. The significant rise from the 2021 low (102.58) towards the 2024 high (161.94) is seen as the main trend.



USDJPY


Oil Prices Head for Steepest Weekly Losses Since June


Key Upside Level: If USDJPY manages to break through minor resistance at 148.07, the market will likely retest the high of 150.91, or the 61.8%FR level. A rise above this level would open the opportunity for a continuation of the bullish trend to higher levels.


Key Downside Level: On the other hand, key support is at 145.84. A breach of this level could signal a short-term bearish reversal, with the next support target at 142.66.


For next week, the Yen's movement will likely be influenced by external data given the relatively quiet Japanese economic calendar.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Ady Phangestu
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 26th August 2025.


Oil Prices Climb as Russia-Ukraine Talks Stall, But Bearish Momentum Returns.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Crude oil prices rise for four consecutive days, and no further progress is made between Russia, the US and Ukraine. As time progresses without a ceasefire or peace deal, the likelihood of one diminishes, triggering a spike in Oil prices. Oil prices on Monday rose to $65.78, the highest in 20 days, but the price retraced lower during this morning’s session.


Why Are Oil Prices Rising?


Oil prices extended their gains as investors grew discouraged by the lack of progress in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia is the third-largest oil exporter in the world behind Saudi Arabia and the US.


Over a week has passed since the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, yet no details of an agreement have surfaced. Adding to supply concerns, the White House reiterated over the weekend that new sanctions on Russia’s energy sector will be imposed within two weeks if no diplomatic settlement is reached. Such measures could tighten crude supply and further support prices. President Trump told journalists that he believes Putin's dislike of Zelensky is delaying a meeting between the two.


Such a move would also significantly escalate geopolitical tensions, as Russia currently relies on oil exports to fund a large part of the economy’s budget. However, the Vice President told journalists that during the Trump-Putin talks, the Russian President was willing to make concessions. Therefore, if momentum again gains speed, the price of Crude Oil can again come under pressure.


US Economic Data


The upcoming economic data is also likely to influence the pricing of the energy market. Today, investors will evaluate the release of the US Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence and Richmond Manufacturing Index. However, the main releases of the week will be Thursday’s Gross Domestic Product and Friday’s Core PCE Price Index.


The price of Crude oil is likely to come under pressure if the economic data is weaker than the current projections, while the Core PCE Price Index reads higher. This would indicate a weakening economy while pressuring the Fed not to cut interest rates. On the other hand, if the Core PCE Price Index falls and the Gross Domestic Product rises, Crude Oil products are likely to rise further.


Currently, all energy products are trading lower on Tuesday. Heating Oil is 0.42% lower, Brent Oil -0.42%, and Gasoline is 0.44% lower. All global indices are also declining, indicating a ‘risk-off’ sentiment within the market.


Crude Oil - Technical Analysis


The price of Crude Oil is trading below the day’s VWAP, indicating that sellers are currently controlling the price movement. However, on a 2-hour chart, the price remains above most Moving Averages, meaning that most traders will focus on a retracement at first. When the price falls below the 75-bar EMA on the 2-hour chart, traders will switch their view to a potential full correction.



Crude Oil 10-Minute Chart


A retracement could see the price fall back down to $64.1,9, which would be a further 1.20% decline. The $64.19 would be key as it is in line with the 75-bar EMA and is the level where the resistance level potentially may flip to support. However, the price movement would depend on the progress between Russia and Ukraine as well as the upcoming US economic data.


If the price remains below the $65.00 level, sell signals are likely to remain intact for the short-term. If the price rises above $65.25, sell signals will start to fade until bearish momentum is regained.


Key Takeaway Points:


* Crude oil hit a 20-day high at $65.78 amid stalled US-Russia-Ukraine peace talks and sanction risks.
* Lack of progress and potential US sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could tighten supply and support prices.
* US economic data this week (GDP, Core PCE) will heavily influence oil demand outlook and Fed policy expectations.
* Technically, oil trades below VWAP with key support at $64.19; staying under $65 keeps short-term bearish pressure.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.