HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 29th May 2025.


NVIDIA Beat Earnings Expectations and The CIT Blocks US Tariffs.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The NASDAQ rose to its highest price since February 21st as investors positively reacted to US courts ordering Trump to remove tariffs. In addition to this, NVIDIA stocks rise 5.00% after releasing their latest quarterly earnings report. Let’s take a look at the latest developments impacting the markets.


US Courts Say No To Trump Tariffs


Surprisingly, the Court of International Trade in New York made the decision that the US administration has overstepped its mandate. The court stated that the President must set tariffs through Congress. Although most of these tariffs are currently suspended, it gave the White House 10 days to remove them, except for those on aluminum and steel.


The court order puts doubt on whether tariffs are possible and if they will be part of the current administration. So far, the White House said, ‘It is not for unelected judges to decide how to properly address a national emergency,’ as it launched an appeal against the court. The ruling by the court does have a positive impact in the short-medium term. However, the courts also add uncertainty to the upcoming weeks.


NVIDIA Beat Earnings Expectations


NVIDIA shares climbed after the market closed as investors held onto their positions, buoyed by strong earnings results. The company reported revenue of $44.1 billion, marking a 12% increase from Q4 and a 69% rise year-over-year. Both earnings per share and revenue exceeded prior projections. If momentum is maintained, the stocks may become the most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, and SNP500 again.


Currently, for the NASDAQ, the stocks hold a weight of 11% and 6% for the SNP500. All 3 US indices are currently increasing in value, mainly due to NVIDIA’s earnings report and the court order.



NASDAQ 15-Minute Chart


Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes


The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes from earlier in the month were more negative than expected. According to experts, the market may have had a bearish reaction to the meeting minutes. Though this was avoided due to support from NVIDIA and the latest court order. The meeting minutes reveal heightened concerns over the economic impact of President Trump's trade policies. They particularly highlight the potential loss of the US safe-haven status due to market volatility following tariff announcements.


Officials noted that declines in US government debt prices, equities, and the US Dollar could signal a shift in investor confidence, potentially leading to long-term economic repercussions. Therefore, the report confirms that a recession is still a real concern for the Federal Reserve. However, the Meeting Minutes also stated that upward pressure on inflation may be difficult to control while simultaneously trying to stop the employment sector from weakening.


However, the report is generally known as a lagging indicator. Since the report was drawn up the US administration has become very close to a trade agreement with India and the EU. Due to this, and the court order, the market may pay less attention to the Meeting Minutes.


A key factor for most tradeable assets will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. The index measures the change in pricing of the most bought goods and services. In addition to the Core PCE Price Index, investors will also closely monitor today’s US Gross Domestic Product and Weekly Unemployment Claims.


*NASDAQ +1.16%
*Dow Jones +1.23%
*US Dollar Index +0.24%
*Gold -0.48%


Key Takeaway Points:


*NASDAQ Rises: Court blocks most Trump tariffs, boosting stocks and the US Dollar. However, the US Dollar quickly gave up the recent gains.
*NVIDIA Shines: Earnings exceed expectations, pushing the stock up 5%. The earnings report supports the stock market as a whole.
*Fed Warnings: Meeting Minutes raise recession concerns from trade policies. The Fed struggles to make decisions due to uncertainties.
*Markets focus their attention on the Core PCE Price Index, GDP, and Weekly Unemployment Claims.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 23rd May 2025.


Dollar Drops as Fiscal Concerns Shake Markets, Euro and Yen Rebound.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The US dollar softened on Friday, poised for its first weekly decline in five weeks against both the euro and the yen. The shift comes as mounting concerns over the US's deteriorating fiscal position have led investors to seek out safer assets.


Following Moody’s recent downgrade of US debt, market attention turned sharply toward America’s staggering $36 trillion debt load. The renewed focus has been amplified by President Donald Trump’s proposed tax legislation, which is expected to significantly expand the deficit if passed.


Labelled by Trump as a ‘big, beautiful bill,’ the tax package narrowly cleared the Republican-majority House of Representatives. It now heads to the Senate, where extended debate is expected—further contributing to near-term investor caution.


The euro climbed 0.36% to $1.132 on Friday, on track to close the week with a 1.2% gain after four weeks of losses. Earlier dollar strength had been supported by a pause in tariff escalations, but sentiment has since shifted. Year-to-date, the euro has appreciated 9% amid ongoing turbulence sparked by tariff policy and a retreat from the dollar.


‘This week, the focus moved away from trade tensions to fiscal stability. That change has rattled markets,’ said Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore. ‘The U.S. fiscal path now looks so concerning that investors are questioning its sustainability.’


The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major peers, was down 0.3% at 99.614 on Friday and is set for a 1.35% weekly loss. This drop comes despite a selloff in U.S. Treasuries, with 30-year yields hovering above 5% in Asian trading, close to their October 2023 peak of 5.179%—levels not seen since 2007.


The rising yields have failed to support the dollar, as a wave of risk aversion fuels what some analysts have dubbed a “Sell America” movement, echoing trends seen last month.


‘What’s striking is how markets are reacting to the surge in long-term U.S. yields,’ said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. ‘These yields aren’t being driven by optimism about growth, but by deepening fears of fiscal irresponsibility and ballooning interest costs.’


He added that the combination of rising inflation expectations and waning foreign interest in U.S. debt has led to a notable spike in the term premium.


The yen firmed to 143.47 per dollar, set for a 1.5% weekly rise after Japanese core inflation in April surged at its fastest pace in over two years. This could prompt the Bank of Japan to consider raising interest rates before year-end.


Despite a fragile economy burdened by tariffs, super-long Japanese bonds reached record highs this week, though prices steadied on Friday.


The Swiss franc gained slightly to 0.8264 per dollar and is up 1.2% this week, snapping a two-week losing streak.


The Australian dollar strengthened 0.39% to $0.6434 after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate to a two-year low of 3.85%, citing weaker global prospects and easing domestic inflation.


Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.3% to $0.5916, on track for a 0.6% weekly increase.


Asian Equities Rebound as Yields Retreat


Asian stocks advanced early Friday as U.S. Treasury yields retreated after a volatile week driven by debt-related fears. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.52%, while the more Fed-sensitive two-year yield dropped to 3.98%.


Oil prices declined amid speculation that OPEC+ may raise production at its next meeting. U.S. crude fell 51 cents to $60.69 per barrel, while Brent slid to $63.93.


In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.8% to 37,289.60 after the government reported April core inflation at 3.5%, its highest since early 2023. Analysts now expect the BOJ to cautiously consider tightening policy.


Still, ING’s Min Joo Kang noted that U.S. tariff pressures could limit the BOJ’s room to maneuver, especially with Japan’s export sector under threat.


Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4% to 23,627.99, Shanghai’s Composite Index gained 1% to 3,382.12, Seoul’s Kospi edged up 0.2% to 2,597.49, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4% to 8,379.10.


Wall Street Mixed as Policy Fears Linger


U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down slightly to 5,842.01. The Dow ticked lower by 1.35 points to 41,859.09, while the Nasdaq rose 0.3% to 18,925.73, led by tech gains. Alphabet climbed 1.4% and Nvidia added 0.8%.


Treasury markets steadied following the House’s passage of a tax bill expected to deepen the federal deficit. The package would extend $4.5 trillion in tax breaks and introduce new ones, while accelerating the phase-out of clean energy credits—sending solar stocks tumbling. Sunrun lost 37.1%, Enphase dropped 19.6%, and First Solar slid 4.3%.


Healthcare stocks also fell after a federal agency announced broader audits of Medicare Advantage plans. UnitedHealth lost 2.1% and Humana plunged 7.6%.


In the latest economic data, jobless claims edged slightly lower, signalling continued labour market resilience. Still, businesses remain cautious amid an ongoing trade war.


A strong S&P Global report on U.S. manufacturing and services showed a rebound in May, though it also highlighted supply chain disruptions and cost pressures tied to looming tariffs.


The jump in prices for goods and services marked the sharpest since August 2022.


[b]Currencies Update


In early Friday trade, the dollar eased to 143.45 yen from 144.01. The euro rose to $1.1319 from $1.1279, reflecting continued pressure on the greenback.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 22nd May 2025.


Bitcoin Surges Above $111K for the First Time as Institutional Demand and Regulatory Optimism Fuel Rally.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Crypto markets outperform as equities stumble under bond market pressure and rising US debt concerns.


Bitcoin hit a new record high on Thursday, crossing the $111,000 threshold for the first time amid growing institutional interest and hopes for improved regulatory clarity in the US. The digital asset rose as much as 3.3% to reach $111,878, according to Bloomberg. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also saw notable gains, climbing up to 5.5% intraday.





Sentiment was lifted by progress in the US Senate on a key stablecoin bill, which investors interpret as a sign of potential pro-crypto regulation under President Donald Trump. This comes alongside mounting demand from major institutional players, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which now holds over $50 billion in Bitcoin.


There’s no shortage of demand for BTC from SPAC and PIPE deals, which is manifesting in the premium on Coinbase spot prices.


Several newly formed or obscure public companies are driving fresh demand, funding their Bitcoin purchases through convertible debt, preferred equity, and other instruments. One example is Twenty One Capital Inc., a new firm modelled after Strategy and launched by an affiliate of Cantor Fitzgerald LP in partnership with Tether Holdings SA and SoftBank Group. Meanwhile, a merger between a subsidiary of Strive Enterprises Inc., co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, and Nasdaq-listed Asset Entities Inc. will create a Bitcoin treasury company.


‘This rally is not just momentum-driven’, said Julia Zhou, COO of Caladan, a crypto market maker. ‘It’s supported by tangible, sustained demand and supply dislocations’


Bitcoin’s dominance is growing, as alternative cryptocurrencies struggle. An index tracking smaller altcoins has declined about 40% in 2025, while Bitcoin is up 17% year-to-date.


In the ETF space, 12 US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have attracted around $4.2 billion in inflows this month. On Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange, open interest is heavily concentrated around June 27 expiry calls at $110,000, $120,000, and even $300,000.


The latest breakout confirms the broader bullish trend. The sharp pullback from January’s highs to below $75,000 in April now looks like a correction within a bull market. A firm break above $110,000 could set the stage for a move toward $125,000.


The latest rally coincides with a private dinner on Thursday between Trump and top holders of his memecoin at his golf club near Washington. Ethics experts warn that such events raise concerns about potential conflicts of interest and access through financial contributions. However, analysts say the meeting has had minimal direct market impact.


Asian Markets Retreat on Bond Market Worries and US Debt Concerns


Asian equity markets fell sharply on Thursday as pressure from rising US Treasury yields and concerns over surging American debt rattled investor confidence.


Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.0% to 36,944.55, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.9% to 23,615.21. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite edged 0.1% lower to 3,383.10. Australia’s ASX 200 slid 0.5% to 8,342.80, and South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.1% to settle at 2,595.69.


The US still has the biggest markets and deepest liquidity, but not even dollar inertia can outrun compound interest and structural deficits forever. The weaker US dollar also weighed on regional markets. A depreciating dollar undermines the value of Asian nations’ dollar-denominated assets and negatively impacts exporters like Japan’s automakers, whose overseas profits diminish when converted to local currency.


In currency markets, the greenback slipped to 143.27 Japanese yen from 143.68 yen. The euro strengthened slightly to $1.1335 from $1.1330. A year ago, the dollar was trading near 150 yen.


Investors are also increasingly wary of President Trump’s policy decisions, particularly on tariffs that affect Asian firms and ongoing negotiations in Congress over a major funding bill.


Wall Street Flat Ahead of Tax Vote


US stock futures were little changed early Thursday as markets awaited the outcome of a vote on President Trump’s proposed tax reform bill. Dow futures dipped 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures traded flat.


Despite internal GOP disagreements, House Speaker Mike Johnson said a floor vote could happen as early as Thursday night. The latest version of the bill includes more generous deductions for state and local taxes (SALT), aimed at appeasing Republican holdouts.


However, unresolved issues surrounding Medicaid funding and green energy tax credits have investors concerned. Moody’s recently downgraded the US credit outlook, citing the bill’s potentially massive deficit implications as a contributing factor.


Markets reacted on Wednesday with broad declines and a jump in bond yields. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly breached 5%, its highest in months, amid renewed concerns over the US’s growing debt burden.


Beyond politics, investors on Thursday will also digest key economic data, including weekly jobless claims, existing home sales, and the ISM’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 21st May 2025.


Dollar Weakens Ahead of G-7 as Traders Watch for US Policy Shifts.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The US dollar slipped to its lowest level in two weeks on Wednesday, as market participants turned their attention to the upcoming Group-of-Seven summit for clues on whether the Trump administration is favouring a weaker greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a third straight session, losing 0.4% on the day.


Speculation has grown after Japan’s Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, expressed his intent to hold currency discussions with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during the G-7 meeting. South Korean officials have already confirmed that exchange rates were addressed during recent bilateral talks with the US, fueling expectations of a coordinated policy shift.


Fiscal concerns are adding to the dollar’s woes. Lawmakers in Washington are working on a proposed tax cut plan that aims to keep the revenue impact within $4.5 trillion over a decade, currently estimated at $3.8 trillion. This comes on the heels of a credit downgrade by Moody’s, which cited persistent and unaddressed budget deficits as a key reason for lowering the US government's credit rating.


‘The dollar is declining in tandem with rising long-term US yields, as investors grow uneasy about financing America's twin deficits,’ said Moh Siong Sim, FX strategist at Bank of Singapore. ‘We’re likely witnessing the early stages of a broader reallocation away from overweight US positions by global investors.’





Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil, Equities Mixed in Asia


Oil prices spiked following a CNN report that suggested Israel may be preparing for a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.21 to $63.24 per barrel, while Brent crude added $1.20 to reach $66.58. The report, citing unnamed intelligence sources, said no final decision had been made by Israeli leaders, but any strike could derail ongoing nuclear negotiations and heighten instability in the Middle East—a region responsible for roughly a third of global oil supply.


Asian equity markets were mixed. The Hang Seng gained 0.4%, Shanghai’s Composite edged up 0.2%, and Australia’s ASX 200 advanced 0.8%. South Korea’s Kospi rose by the same margin, and Taiwan’s Taiex climbed 0.6%. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225, however, dipped 0.1% amid ongoing trade tensions with the US


Japan reported weaker trade data, with April exports to the US falling nearly 2% year-on-year. Total global export growth slowed to 2% from 4% in March, while imports from the US plunged over 11%. The country recorded a trade deficit of 115.8 billion yen ($804 million), and the yen's recent strength has further dampened export competitiveness. Vehicle exports, a core component of Japan’s trade, dropped nearly 6%.


The Japanese government continues to urge Washington to remove the tariffs introduced under President Trump, particularly the 25% levy on autos and duties on steel and aluminium. Economic Revitalisation Minister Ryosei Akazawa is expected to meet with US officials this weekend in a third round of negotiations.


Adding to domestic political pressures, Agriculture Minister Taku Eto resigned following controversial remarks about receiving free rice, triggering public backlash amid rising staple food prices.


Wall Street Dips as Travel Stocks Lag; Quantum Firm Soars


US stocks ended lower on Tuesday. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 5,940.46, its first decline in seven sessions. The Dow dropped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.4%. Travel-related shares dragged the market lower, with Norwegian Cruise Line falling 3.9%, United Airlines off 2.9%, and Airbnb down 3.3%. Viking Holdings, despite better-than-expected earnings, slumped 5%.


Home Depot shares slid 0.6% after quarterly earnings missed estimates, though revenue came in ahead. The company maintained its full-year guidance, contrasting with other corporations that have cited tariff uncertainty and economic headwinds as reasons to withhold forecasts.


In contrast, D-Wave Quantum surged nearly 26% after launching a next-generation quantum computing platform, claiming it can tackle problems traditional computers cannot handle.


Investors are watching for earnings from Lowe’s and Target today.


Bonds and Currency Moves


This morning UK inflation jumped to 3.5% y/y in the headline rate, from 2.6% y/y in the previous month, with prices rising a whopping 1.2% m/m. The later timing of Easter and the start of the new fiscal year clearly impacted the higher-than-expected number. Core inflation accelerated to 3.8% y/y from 3.4% y/y, with services price inflation hitting 5.4% y/y, up 0.7% points over the month. The wider CPIH rate accelerated to 4.1% y/y from 3.4% y/y. The higher-than-expected number backs warnings from Chief Economist Pill that inflation risks have not disappeared and is prompting traders to trim rate cut bets.





Also, Canada’s April inflation data delivered a mixed picture. Headline CPI slowed to 1.7% year-over-year, the weakest since September, due to lower energy prices and the carbon tax repeal. However, core inflation surprised to the upside: the median rate climbed to 3.2% (from 2.9%), the trim rose to 3.1%, and the average core measure accelerated to 3.15%. The three-month moving average of core inflation jumped to 3.4% from 2.9%.


These stronger core figures complicate the Bank of Canada’s upcoming rate decision on June 4. The central bank held rates steady at its April 16 meeting but may now face pressure to act amid persistent underlying inflation.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 19th May 2025.


Global Markets Slide After US Credit Rating Downgrade, Weak Chinese Data Add to Investor Jitters.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Asian markets fell today while US futures and the dollar weakened, as global investors digested Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating. The move came in response to the US government's persistent struggle to control rising debt, currently sitting at $36 trillion.


US Credit Rating Downgrade Sends Ripples Through Global Markets


Moody’s cut the US sovereign credit score from its long-held AAA rating to Aa1 — the first downgrade since 1917. The rating agency cited worsening fiscal conditions, a widening deficit, and increasing concerns over the government's capacity to manage its debt obligations. It follows earlier warnings in 2023 and echoes similar concerns raised by Fitch and S&P in previous years.


The downgrade hit global sentiment hard. The futures for the S&P 500 slid 0.9%, while those for the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.6%. The US dollar weakened, dipping to 145.14 yen from 145.65 yen, while the euro remained flat at $1.1183.





Asian Markets Under Pressure Amid Weak China Data


Chinese equities slipped after fresh data revealed slower-than-expected economic growth. April retail sales in China rose just 5.1% year-on-year, missing forecasts, while industrial output growth eased to 6.1% from 7.7% in March. The slowdown raises concerns over excess inventories and reduced domestic demand, particularly in the wake of the ongoing US-China trade tensions.


The Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.7% to 23,184.74, and Shanghai’s Composite Index edged down 0.2% to 3,361.72. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.4%, Korea’s Kospi lost 1%, and Taiwan’s Taiex shed 0.8%. Australia’s ASX 200 declined 0.1%.


Adding to the pessimism, China’s property market showed no signs of recovery, with new home prices unchanged in April, marking nearly two years of stagnant growth despite government support efforts.


Trade War Uncertainty Looms Over Markets


Tensions between the US and its trading partners continue to add volatility. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that President Donald Trump would impose tariffs on countries not negotiating in ‘good faith.’ Although Bessent did not clarify what qualifies as ‘good faith,’ he stated that letters outlining tariff rates would be sent to non-compliant nations.


Trump has already shifted tariff rates multiple times this year. In April, he reduced most tariffs to 10% for 90 days to encourage negotiations, while tariffs on Chinese imports were adjusted to 30%.


Despite last week’s 90-day standstill agreement between the US and China, investor sentiment remains fragile amid concerns over Trump’s unpredictable trade policies.


Wall Street Rallies but Risks Remain


Despite the looming economic headwinds, Wall Street closed higher last week. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 5,958.38, bringing it within 3% of its February all-time high. The Dow climbed 0.8% to 42,654.74, while the Nasdaq rose 0.5% to 19,211.10. Optimism over potential tariff rollbacks helped fuel the rally, but fears of a recession and stubborn inflation still weigh heavily.


Moody’s downgrade also underscores long-term structural challenges for the US economy, as successive administrations have failed to rein in government spending.


Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations Worsen


The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment index showed another decline in May, though the pace of deterioration slowed. More troubling, Americans now expect inflation to reach 7.3% over the next year, up from 6.5% the month before, further complicating the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts.


Hope remains that softer inflation readings and slowing economic activity could eventually prompt the Fed to ease monetary policy,a key support for markets facing trade shocks and fiscal uncertainty.


Gold Gains on Safe-Haven Demand


Gold prices edged higher as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid mounting US fiscal concerns. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,218.30 an ounce in Singapore after briefly surging as much as 1.4% earlier in the session. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.2%.


Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating supported gold’s appeal. The precious metal, which hit record highs above $3,500 an ounce last month, remains up over 20% this year despite recent pullbacks driven by easing geopolitical tensions.





Oil Prices Dip on Weak Data and Credit Worries


Oil prices fell Monday following the US credit rating downgrade and underwhelming Chinese economic data. Brent crude slipped 0.5% to $65.06 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 0.4% to $62.23. The more actively traded July WTI contract also fell 0.5% to $61.66.


While the recent truce between the US and China initially lifted crude prices, concerns over the durability of the agreement and China’s faltering recovery have kept investors cautious.


Oil Prices Dip on Weak Data and Credit Worries


In corporate news, Charter Communications rose 1.8% after announcing a merger with Cox Communications. The combined entity will retain the Cox name and be headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.


Nvidia-backed CoreWeave jumped 22.1% after the tech giant increased its stake in the AI cloud computing firm from just under 6% to 7%.


Meanwhile, US-listed shares of Novo Nordisk fell 2.7% after the company announced CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen will step down amid recent market challenges, despite the popularity of its Wegovy weight-loss drug.


Outlook: Uncertainty Ahead


With the US credit rating downgrade, wavering trade relationships, and mixed economic signals from China, financial markets are likely to remain volatile. While some positive inflation data could support a dovish Fed pivot later in the year, uncertainty over global trade policies and fiscal stability will continue to dominate investor sentiment.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 16th May 2025.


NASDAQ - Producer Inflation Down But Fed Will Not Budge!



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The NASDAQ increased in value for a third consecutive day and has now fully recovered all previous losses in 2025. The NASDAQ is now trading 1.70% higher in 2025 and is in the positive zone for the first time since February 27th. The upward price movement continues due to investor confidence rising, particularly after yesterday’s lower producer inflation.


NASDAQ - US Inflation and Economic Data


The NASDAQ during the Asian and European sessions fell lower, witnessing only the second dip of the week. However, the price action quickly changed after the US released its producer inflation and retail sales. The positive developments from the US-China trade negotiations will now start to fade, meaning investors will need further price drivers. As the price fell during the first two sessions of the day, this price driver can be derived from the latest US data.


The US producer inflation (Producer Price Index) read 0.5%, which is 0.7% lower than the previous expectations. The Core Producer Price Index read 0.4%, again significantly lower than what the market was expecting. As a result, the producer inflation over a period of 12 months fell from 2.7% to 2.4%. The lower inflation figures continue to support the stock market as it is known to boost consumer demand while pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.


The inflation data from Tuesday (consumer inflation) and yesterday (producer inflation) was one of the main price drivers. However, the NASDAQ also reacted positively to the Retail Sales, which rose above expectations. The weekly US unemployment claims came in at 1.881 million, lower than expected.


However, a negative development came from Applied Materials’ quarterly earnings report, which was that the company’s revenue failed to meet expectations. As a result, the stock fell 5.50% after the market close. Applied Material is the 26th most influential company within the NASDAQ, holding a weight of 0.89%.


Even though the NASDAQ managed to increase after the inflation announcement, investors were concerned that only 51% of the most influential stocks rose in value. The upward price movement was largely due to the strong performance by Cisco Systems (+4.85%), Netflix (+2.34%) and PepsiCo (+2.37).



NASDAQ Companies Performance


The NASDAQ - The Federal Reserve


One of the main risks for the NASDAQ is connected to the trade policy with Europe, which remains one of the only trade partners to not sign a trade policy. In addition to this, a possible external risk remains the Federal Reserve, which is yet to indicate any concrete rate cuts.


The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the agency’s cautious stance. He stated that borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated over the long term due to structural economic shifts and ongoing uncertainty in government policy. We can see here that the Federal Reserve is reluctant to give an indication of any rate cuts despite the lower inflation figures. However, the next inflation announcement in June will be the first release after the US tariffs on China and Europe. This is likely to be the most important inflation reading of 2025.


Currently, based on the Chicago Exchange, there is an 8% chance of a rate cut in June, a 38% chance in July and a 75% chance in September. The report indicates that by the end of 2025, the most likely scenario is the Fed lowering rates to 3.75%–4.00%.


NASDAQ - Technical Analysis


For the NASDAQ, technical analysis indicates a neutral signal for the short-term with a bullish bias in the long-term. In the short term, the price is forming a symmetrical price pattern, which indicates range-bound trading conditions. The price is also at a key psychological level as the index rises to the previous highs. Due to this, investors are now contemplating what the asset’s intrinsic value is.


However, in the long term the price is obtaining bullish signals as the price trades above the trend-lines, moving averages and above the 50.00 level on the RSI.



NASDAQ 15-Minute Chart


Key Takeaway Points:


* The NASDAQ has risen for three straight days, now up 1.70% YTD and in positive territory for the first time since February.
* Lower-than-expected producer and consumer inflation boosted investor sentiment, reinforcing hopes for rate cuts and supporting retail sales growth.
* Despite index gains, only 51% of the top NASDAQ stocks rose. Applied Materials missed earnings, dropping 5.5%, while Cisco, Netflix, and PepsiCo outperformed.
* Powell signalled no immediate rate cuts despite cooling inflation. Markets expect a 75% chance of a cut by September, with rates likely to fall to 3.75%–4.00% by year-end.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 13th May 2025.


US-China Deal Eases Recession Fears, Goldman Raises 2025 Targets.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Investors continue to focus on the weekend's trade deal between the US and China which continues to prompt vital trends. The agreement between the two largest economies changes the outlook for almost all assets. Although investors will also start to turn their focus to a pending trade agreement with the EU and this week’s inflation data.


Global Stocks Rebound Aiming To Fully Regain Previous Losses


The global stock market rose significantly after the announcement of a trade deal with China to lower tariffs. You can find the details of the agreement in yesterday’s article. The SNP500 rose 3.26% and has regained 79% of the stock market crash from March-April. Of the most influential components (stocks within the SNP500) 82% rose in value with mainly defensive stocks declining. Defensive stocks include Philip Morris, Johnson & Johnson and Coca-Cola.


Due to the trade agreement most economies have lowered their projections for a recession in 2025. Previously economists were advising a 30-50% chance of a recession in the second half of the year. However, these projections have now significantly fallen and will do further if the US and EU also sign a trade agreement.


In today’s early hours Goldman Sachs advised it is increasing its target within the stock market. Goldman Sachs strategists, such as David Kostin, now project the SNP500 to potentially rise to $6,500 within the next 12 months. Previously the estimate was between $6,100-6,200. However, analysts also note that the US-China agreement is still temporary and will expire in 89 days.



SNP500 Daily Chart


In the short-term, investors will be laser focused on the Consumer Price Index (inflation). The CPI is due to be made public at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect the US inflation rate to remain at 2.4%. If the rate reads as expected or lower, the stock market potentially can further rise as economists will expect a Federal Reserve rate cut.


GBPUSD - The Pound Struggles Despite Positive Employment Data


The US Dollar has been the best performing currency of the week as investors return to the Greenback. This is largely due to the trade agreement with China and investors correcting previous market pricings. However, the USD is retracing lower on Tuesday giving back some od this week’s gains.


The Great British Pound on the other hand is also supported by the latest employment data from this morning. Although this has not been mirrored on the price. The UK Claimant Count Change fell to +5,200 and the Average Earnings Index read 5.5%. Both announcements were better than previous expectations. However, the GBP still remains the worst performing currency of the day so far after the USD.


Yesterday, Bank of England Monetary Policy Director Megan Green stated that while wage and consumer price growth continues to slow, the figures remain meaningful. However, she also noted a rise in medium-term inflation expectations among the public.


Gold Forms a Retracement Pattern and Obtains A Divergence Indication


The price of Gold rose 0.88% on Tuesday almost fully correcting the bearish price action from Monday, bar the bearish price gap. Currently, the metal is finding support at the $3,201.00 support level from April 12th and May 1st. However, the upward price movement of the day is forming a similar pattern to previous retracements. Therefore, it is vital for Gold traders to note that the price movement could either be a retracement or change in trend.



Gold 2-Hour Chart


Currently, in terms of fundamentals, the data is indicating a bearish bias, although some positive factors remain. For example, if the Federal Reserve starts to take a more dovish tone due to the trade deal, Gold may continue to be used as a hedge against inflation. However, if countries continue signing trade deals and Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement in Thursday’s negotiations, renewed bearish momentum might hit Gold.


According to the White House, President Trump may possibly attend the negotiations on Thursday between Ukraine and Russia.


Key Takeaway Points:


* The weekend trade agreement between the US and China has boosted investor confidence and shifted the outlook across global assets, reducing recession fears for 2025.
* Global stock markets surged, with the S&P 500 up 3.26%. Defensive stocks underperformed, while 82% of components posted gains.
* Investor attention now turns to today’s US CPI data and the potential US-EU trade agreement. A softer inflation reading could trigger Fed rate cut expectations.
* The US Dollar leads among currencies but is slightly retracing. The Pound is supported by strong UK jobs data but remains one of the day’s weaker performers.
* Gold rose 0.88% Tuesday but remains at risk of renewed bearish pressure if global trade deals continue and Ukraine-Russia negotiations succeed.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 12th May 2025.


NASDAQ Gains Nearly 4% as US-China Agree to Lower Tariffs.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The NASDAQ soars higher as the US and China finally get on the way and show signs of ‘substantial progress’. Thanks to the positive tone and recent agreements with other partners, the market is clearly leaning toward a risk-on sentiment. The NASDAQ rises to a 2-month high, but can the index rise to previous highs?


US-China Trade Negotiations - What We Know So Far!


Currently, the level of tariffs on Chinese goods is 145%, which, in other words, will bring imports to the US to a halt. In Trump’s recent press conference, he said he believes tariffs should be lowered to 80%. However, most economists believe the US will aim to bring them down to 55-60%.


On Sunday night, trade negotiations in Geneva made ‘substantial progress;’ toward easing tariffs, according to both parties. At that time, the ‘details’ remained scarce, but purely on the positive sentiment, the NASDAQ is quickly reacting. Though this morning the Treasury Secretary and chief negotiator outlined what has been agreed. As part of a 90-day deal, China will lower the tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% and the US on China from 145% to 30%. On the positive side, the tariffs are significantly lower than previous expectations, but a slight negative is that the agreement is solely for 90 days.


Newly imposed tariffs drove the 6-week stock market crash in March–April, during which the NASDAQ dropped by 27%. Economists say that if the US, the EU and China sign a trade agreement, the economy will avoid a recession. At the moment, the price of the NASDAQ and most indices have positively reacted to the news.





Before the announcement was made, the NASDAQ was trading 2.10% higher than Friday’s closing price. This was purely due to the positive tone from Sunday. The NASDAQ rose a further 1.50% in the minutes after Scott Bessent’s trade announcement.


NASDAQ - Inflation and Earnings Report


The price movement of the NASDAQ will also depend on the upcoming economic releases and earnings data. In terms of Quarterly Earnings Reports, Applied Materials and Cisco Systems are due to announce their reports on Wednesday and Thursday. The two companies hold a weight of 2.42% and are known to create moderate volatility. Both companies have beaten their earnings expectations over the past 12 months, and both stocks have risen in the past week. However, it's also important to note that Cisco Systems is the most influential of the two.


Nevertheless, traders should note that the Consumer Price Index (inflation) report can overshadow the earnings reports. The consumer inflation is due tomorrow afternoon, and the producer inflation on Thursday. Analysts expect the consumer inflation to remain at 2.4%, which remains relatively close to the Fed’s target of 2.00%. If inflation reads as per expectations, the NASDAQ may potentially react positively. A lower inflation reading will also support the NASDAQ, however, if inflation rises above 2.4%, the reading may trigger inflation concerns related to tariffs.


NASDAQ - Technical Analysis


On the 2-Hour timeframe, the NASDAQ continues to honour the trend-line and in the short-term the index shows significant bullish momentum. Currently, the price movement is not showing any indications of downward price movement or divergence patterns. However, the only concern for short-term traders is a retracement due to the price being overbought on most oscillators. Currently, bullish price action holds strong.


Key Takeaway Points:


* US-China Trade: Positive developments in tariff talks have pushed the NASDAQ to a 2-month high, signaling strong risk-on sentiment.
* Trade Deal Reached: Both countries agreed to lower tariffs significantly for 90 days, sparking a strong market reaction. The NASDAQ trades almost 4% higher.
* Inflation and Earnings: Upcoming CPI data and earnings reports from Applied Materials and Cisco may drive further NASDAQ movement.
* Technical Outlook Remains Bullish: NASDAQ shows strong upward momentum with no immediate bearish signals, though overbought conditions could prompt a short-term pullback.





A second catalyst came from Coinbase, which announced a $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit, a major crypto derivatives platform. The news bolstered sector sentiment and contributed to Bitcoin’s 5% intraday gain, with the digital asset peaking at $102,147 by late afternoon ET.


The recovery follows a sharp decline to $75,000 in early April, triggered by Trump's aggressive tariff declaration on ‘Liberation Day.’ Since then, Bitcoin has rebounded on renewed optimism, with its performance echoing the strong correlation it shares with US tech stocks and broader risk assets.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 09th May 2025.


Markets Rally on Renewed Trade Optimism as Trump Softens Stance.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


US equities and the dollar climbed to their highest levels in a month, as investors grew increasingly hopeful ahead of a key round of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Talks are scheduled to take place in Switzerland over the weekend, with both sides seeking to reduce tensions and roll back punitive tariffs, currently at 145% on Chinese imports and 125% on US goods in response.


President Trump struck a more conciliatory tone, suggesting tariffs on China could soon be scaled back. ‘I think it’s going to be a substantive and friendly meeting,’ he said while unveiling a new trade deal with the UK. When asked about potential reductions, Trump said, ‘Right now you can’t go any higher. It’s at 145%, so we know it’s coming down.’


The shift in tone marks a turning point after a turbulent April, during which markets were rattled by growing recession fears and escalating trade rhetoric. Since Trump first hinted at easing duties late last month, investors have rotated back into US assets, fueling a strong rebound in risk sentiment.


‘You’re going to want to buy stocks now,’ Trump told reporters on Thursday, citing both the new UK deal and a recently enacted tax measure as reasons for investor optimism.


Equities Push Higher as Risk Appetite Builds


Wall Street posted a second straight day of gains: the Dow rose 0.62%, the S&P 500 added 0.58%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.07%. In Europe, Germany’s DAX advanced 1.02%, nearing record highs, while the Euro Stoxx 600 rose 1.1%. Futures suggest more upside in US and European markets heading into the weekend.





Asian shares, however, delivered a mixed performance as investors stayed cautious ahead of the trade meeting. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.32%, Australia’s ASX 200 edged up 0.41%, while South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.15%.


Despite the cautious tone, US futures posted modest gains, and oil prices continued to trend higher.


Fresh trade data from China added to the market narrative. April exports rose 8.1% year-on-year, beating expectations but down from March’s 12.4% pace. However, shipments to the US plunged over 20%, as the impact of steep US tariffs began to take hold.


Dollar Rebounds Sharply as Euro Falters


The US dollar index (DXY) surged above the 100 mark for the first time in nearly a month, gaining more than 1% as capital flowed back into dollar-denominated assets. The euro, which had previously benefited from safe-haven demand, dropped to 1.12—its lowest level since early April, after peaking above 1.15 in recent weeks.


Oil Jumps While Gold Pulls Back


Crude prices rallied to their highest levels in a month. WTI crude climbed over $60 per barrel, up 3.5% since Thursday’s open, and Brent crude broke through $63 per barrel. The gains were fueled by improving risk appetite and expectations of stronger global demand.


Gold, on the other hand, retreated for a second day as investors moved away from safety plays. COMEX futures fell 2.5% on Thursday, while spot gold slid 3.6% across two sessions, touching $3,313 per ounce before rebounding modestly. By Friday, spot prices stood at $3,324.75, up 0.6% on the day and nearly 3% for the week.


While the UK-US trade pact offered improved customs access for American exporters and some tariff relief for UK steel, autos, and aluminium, the deal was more limited in scope than initially promised. Analysts noted that without broader reforms or clearer economic direction, the agreement may do little to ease concerns over slowing global growth.


Bitcoin Surges on Trade Hopes and Coinbase Deal


Bitcoin (BTCUSD) surged past $103,000 on Thursday, marking its highest level since late January. The cryptocurrency rallied alongside equities after Trump signalled a more diplomatic approach to trade, highlighting interest from other nations to forge deals with the US.





A second catalyst came from Coinbase, which announced a $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit, a major crypto derivatives platform. The news bolstered sector sentiment and contributed to Bitcoin’s 5% intraday gain, with the digital asset peaking at $102,147 by late afternoon ET.


The recovery follows a sharp decline to $75,000 in early April, triggered by Trump's aggressive tariff declaration on ‘Liberation Day.’ Since then, Bitcoin has rebounded on renewed optimism, with its performance echoing the strong correlation it shares with US tech stocks and broader risk assets.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 08th May 2025.


Markets Rally as Fed Holds Rates, Trump Teases Major Trade Deal With UK.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


US stocks surged midweek as investors reacted to a flurry of market-moving developments—from Federal Reserve policy decisions and trade deal speculation to AI regulations and geopolitical tensions.


Federal Reserve Holds Rates Amid Political Pressure


Despite mounting pressure from former President Donald Trump to lower interest rates ahead of a potential economic slowdown, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range. This decision follows a full percentage point cut made in late 2024.


‘Uncertainty’ remains the name of the game for the FOMC as well as the markets. Though the word was used only once in the statement, Chair Powell used it, or variations of it, many times in his presser, ultimately saying his gut tells him ‘uncertainty’ over the economy's path is extremely elevated.


Powell warned of ongoing risks from global trade tensions and tariffs, stating, ‘If sustained, large increases in tariffs could lead to higher inflation, slower growth, and increased unemployment.’ He acknowledged that the Fed remains vigilant, especially as uncertainties around international trade persist.


The major takeaway is that the Fed is firmly on the sidelines monitoring the many tariff-related unknowns regarding their ‘scale, scope, timing, and persistence’ and their impacts on the economy. The Fed is in no hurry and awaits clear evidence to dictate the appropriate policy response.


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s independence on Wednesday, dismissing political influence from the White House. Addressing reporters, Powell emphasised, ‘President Trump doesn’t affect our doing our job at all,’ and reiterated that he has never—and will never—request a meeting with any US president.





Trump Sparks Market Rally With UK Trade Deal Tease


Equity markets jumped late Wednesday after Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the US had secured a ‘MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY.’ Sources familiar with the matter indicated the United Kingdom is expected to be named as the trade partner during a scheduled White House press conference Thursday morning.


US stock futures surged on the news:


* Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.6%
* S&P 500 futures gained 0.7%
* Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1%
* Gold is down 0.7%, sliding to $3,336 — edging closer to the crucial 100-hour moving average at $3,330.


Expectations for a broader US-UK economic agreement added to investor optimism, alongside plans for high-level trade talks between the US and China in Switzerland. However, Trump’s statement that tariffs on Chinese imports would remain in place ahead of the negotiations tempered some enthusiasm.


Asian Markets and Geopolitical Concerns


The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below the 100 mark, closing at 99.809 after touching a high of 100.030 and a low of 99.464. The dollar weakened against most G10 currencies and lost ground to several Asian counterparts as rate differentials failed to offer support.


Nevertheless, stronger US economic data—including accelerated activity among US service providers—helped the dollar edge higher during the session, easing a rapid appreciation in Asian currencies spurred by optimism over potential trade agreements.


Asia Forex Volatility Increases Amid Trade Hopes


Asian stock markets followed the US momentum on Thursday:


* Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.2%
* Australia’s ASX 200 increased 0.2%
* South Korea’s Kospi added 0.3%
* Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 0.8%
* Shanghai Composite advanced 0.8%


However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan, introduced fresh risks. Pakistan has vowed retaliation for missile strikes it says were carried out by India, resulting in over 30 civilian deaths in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Punjab. The situation has drawn international concern over the potential for wider instability in the region.


Nvidia, AMD Surge as AI Export Rules Get Revamped


Tech stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, also benefited from a regulatory shift. Nvidia (NVDA) closed up 3% following reports that the Trump administration will repeal AI chip export restrictions imposed by the Biden administration.


The US Commerce Department confirmed the policy reversal, describing the previous rules as ‘overly bureaucratic’ and vowing to implement a streamlined framework that ‘unleashes American innovation.’


Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also climbed nearly 1.8% on the news, though both chipmakers saw their shares ease slightly in after-hours trading.


The Walt Disney Co. led the earnings-driven rally, soaring 10.8% after beating profit forecasts, raising guidance, and reporting over one million new streaming subscribers.


BoE Expected to Cut Today


The BoE is widely expected to lower the Bank Rate by another 25 bp to 4.25% on May 8. U.K. inflation is still expected to pick up again before retreating, but lower oil prices and a stronger pound will likely prompt the BoE to lower inflation forecasts with the updated Monetary Policy Report, which will pave the way for lower rates. And with growth risks intensifying thanks to US tariff jitters and the impact of the autumn budget, the chances of back-to-back cuts are rising, especially as U.K. rates remain relatively high.


Stagflation risks continue to linger, but BoE head Bailey warned last week that a trade war would hurt the U.K. economy, despite the fact that it is facing lower ‘reciprocal’ tariffs than others. Bailey stressed that ‘it is not just the relationship between the US and the UK, it is the relationship between the US, the U.K. and the rest of the world that matters, because the UK is such an open economy.’ ‘We have to take very seriously the risk to growth’, Bailey warned, adding that ‘fragmenting the world economy will be bad for growth.’


Outlook: Economic Growth Meets Policy Uncertainty


Despite global uncertainties, the Fed noted that the US economy continues to grow at a ‘solid pace.’ However, Powell cautioned that persistent tariff threats and rising inflation could put the central bank in a precarious position,risking a scenario of stagflation, where economic stagnation coincides with rising prices.


With trade negotiations looming, rate cuts paused, and geopolitical risks rising, investors will be closely monitoring headlines for clues on the next moves in markets and monetary policy.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.