HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 8th April 2025.


Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.


However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.


In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.


Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.


China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’


Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.


If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.


In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.


Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.


Trump Talks Tough on EU Too


Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’


The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.





Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama


Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.


The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.


Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts


Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.


Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.





Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.


However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.


In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.


Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.


Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist


With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 3rd April 2025.


Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Key Takeaways:


* Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking.
* President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions.
* Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal.
* Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction.
* Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook.


Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking


Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments.


The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement.


Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications


On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears.


Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations


Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist.


Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields


Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth.


Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment.





Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch


Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor.


On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.


Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy


Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices.


Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong.


Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 2nd April 2025.


Market on Edge: Tariff Announcement and Volatility Ahead!



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The US economic and employment data continues to deteriorate with the job vacancies figures dropping to a 5-month low. In addition to this, the IMS Manufacturing PMI also fell below expectations. However, both the US Dollar and Gold declined simultaneously following the release of the two figures, an uncommon occurrence in the market. Traders expect a key factor to be today’s ‘liberation day’ where the US will impose tariffs on imports.


USDJPY - Traders Await Tariff Confirmation!


Traders looking to determine how the USDJPY will look today will find it difficult to determine until the US confirms its tariff plan. Today is the day when Trump previously stated he would finalize and announce his tariff plan. The administration has not yet released the policy, but investors expect it to be the most expansionary in a century. President Trump is due to speak at 20:00 GMT. On HFM's Calendar the speech is stated as "US Liberation Day Tariff Announcement".


Currently, analysts are expecting Trump’s Tariff Plan to impose tariffs on the EU, chips and pharmaceuticals later today as well as reciprocal tariffs. Economists have a good idea of how these tariffs may take effect, but reciprocal tariffs are still unspecified. In addition to this, 25% tariffs on the car industry will start tomorrow. The tariffs on the foreign cars industry are a factor which will particularly impact Japan. Although, traders should note that this is what is expected and is not yet finalised.


Last week, President Trump stated that he would implement retaliatory tariffs but allow exemptions for certain US trade partners. Treasury Secretary Mr Bessent and National Economic Council Director Mr Hassett suggested that the restrictions would primarily target 15 countries responsible for the bulk of the US trade deficit. However, yesterday, Trump contradicted these statements, asserting that additional duties would be imposed on any country that has implemented similar measures against US products.


The day’s volatility will depend on which route the US administration takes. The harshness of the policy will influence both the Japanese Yen as well as the US Dollar.



USDJPY 5-Minute Chart


US Economic and Employment Data


The JOLT Job Vacancies figure fell below expectations and is lower than the previous month’s figure. The JOLT Job Vacancies read 7.57 million whereas the average of the past 6 months is 7.78 million. The ISM Manufacturing Index also fell below the key level of 50.00 and was 5 points lower than what analysts were expecting.


The data is negative for the US Dollar, particularly as the latest release applies more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, this is unlikely to happen if the trade policy ignites higher and stickier inflation. In the Bank of Japan’s Governor's latest speech, Mr Ueda said that the tariffs are likely to trigger higher inflation.


USDJPY Technical Analysis


Currently, the Japanese Yen Index is the worst performing of the day while the US Dollar Index is more or less unchanged. However, this is something traders will continue to monitor as the EU session starts.


In the 2-hour timeframe, the USDJPY is trading at the neutral level below the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. The RSI and MACD is also at the neutral level meaning traders should be open to price movements in either direction. On the smaller timeframes, such as the 5-minute timeframe, there is a slight bias towards a bullish outcome. However, this is only likely if the latest bearish swing does not drop below the 200-Bar SMA.



The key resistant level can be seen at 150.262 and the support level at 149.115. Breakout levels are at 149.988 and 149.674.


Key Takeaway Points:


* Job vacancies hit a five-month low, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions.
* Traders await confirmation on Trump’s tariff policy, which is expected to impact the EU, chips, pharmaceuticals, and foreign car industries.
* The severity of the tariffs will influence both the JPY and the USD, with traders waiting for final policy details.
* The Japanese Yen Index is the worst index of the day while the US Dollar Index is unchanged.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 1st April 2025.


Will Gold’s Rally Hold Strong as New Trade Tariffs Take Effect Tomorrow?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Gold continues to increase in value for a sixth consecutive day and is trading more than 17% higher in 2025. Amid fear of higher inflation, a recession and the tariffs war escalating investors continue to invest into Gold pushing demand higher. The trade policy from April 2nd onwards continues to be a key factor for the whole market. Can Gold maintain its upward trend?


Trade Policy From Tomorrow Onwards


Starting as soon as tomorrow, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all passenger cars imported into the United States. While this White House policy is anticipated to negatively affect European industrial performance, it will also lead to higher transportation and maintenance costs for everyday American taxpayers. The negative impact expected on both the EU and US is one of the reasons investors continue to buy Gold.


Additionally, last month, President Donald Trump announced reciprocal sanctions against any trade partners that impose import restrictions on US goods. Furthermore, tariffs on products from Canada and the EU could increase even more if they attempt to coordinate a response.


Overall, investors continue to worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures, particularly from China, the Eurozone, and Japan. Any retaliation is likely to escalate the trade conflict and prompt another reaction from the US. Experts at Goldman Sachs and other investment banks warn that this will lead to rising inflation and unemployment. They also caution that it could effectively halt economic growth in the US.



XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart


The Weakness In The US Dollar


Another factor which is allowing the price of XAUUSD to increase in value is the US Dollar which has been unable to maintain any bullish momentum. Despite last week’s Core PCE Price Index rising to its highest level since February 2024, the US Dollar has been unable to see any significant rise in value. Due to the US Dollar and Gold's inverse correlation, the price of Gold is benefiting from the Dollar weakness.


Investors worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures from China, the Eurozone, and Japan, potentially escalating the conflict. Experts at The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. believe that such actions by the US administration will drive rising inflation and unemployment while effectively halting economic growth in the country.


Can Gold Maintain Momentum?
When it comes to technical analysis, the price of Gold is not trading at a price where oscillators are indicating the instrument is overbought. The Relative Strength Index currently trades at 68.88, outside of the overbought area, since Gold’s price fell 0.65% during this morning’s session. However, even with this decline, the price still remains 0.40% higher than the day’s open price.


In terms of fundamental analysis, there continues to be plenty of factors indicating the price could continue to rise. However, the price movement of the week will also partially depend on the employment data from the US.


The US is due to release the JOLTS Job Vacancies for February this afternoon, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change tomorrow, and the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate on Friday. If all data reads higher than expectations, investors may look to sell to lock in profits at the high price.




Key Takeaway Points:


* Gold’s Rally Continues – Up 17% in 2025 as investors seek safety from inflation, recession fears, and trade tensions.
* Trade War Impact – New US tariffs and potential retaliation from China, the EU, and Japan drive uncertainty, boosting Gold demand.
* Weak US Dollar – The Dollar’s struggle supports Gold’s rise due to their inverse correlation.
* Gold’s Outlook – Uptrend may continue, but US jobs data could trigger profit-taking.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 28th March 2025.


Market Selloff Deepens as Tariff Concerns Weigh on Investors



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Global stock markets extended their losing streak for a third day as concerns over looming US tariffs and an escalating trade war dampened investor sentiment. The flight to safety saw gold prices surge to a record high, underscoring growing risk aversion.


Stock Selloff Intensifies


The MSCI World Index recorded its longest losing streak in a month, while Asian equities saw their sharpest decline since late February. US and European stock futures also signalled potential weakness, while cryptocurrency markets retreated and bond yields edged lower.


Investors are scaling back their exposure ahead of President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on April 2. His latest move to impose a 25% levy on all foreign-made automobiles has sparked fresh concerns over inflation and economic growth, prompting traders to reassess their strategies.


Investor Strategies Shift
Market experts are adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of heightened volatility. ‘It’s impossible to predict Trump’s next move,’ said Xin-Yao Ng of Aberdeen Investments. ‘Our focus is on companies that are less vulnerable to tariff policies while taking advantage of market dips to find value opportunities.’


Yield Curve Signals Economic Concerns
In the bond market, the spread between 30-year and 5-year US Treasury yields widened to its highest level since early 2022. Investors are bracing for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts if economic growth slows further.


Long-term Treasury yields hit a one-month peak as inflation risks tied to tariffs spurred demand for higher-yielding assets. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that while tariffs may contribute to short-term price increases, their long-term effects remain uncertain.


Gold Hits Record High as Safe-Haven Demand Rises
Amid market turbulence, gold prices soared 0.7% on Friday, reaching an all-time high of $3,077.60 per ounce. Major banks have raised their price targets for the precious metal, with Goldman Sachs now forecasting gold to hit $3,300 per ounce by year-end.


Looking Ahead
As investors digest economic data showing US growth acceleration in Q4, attention will turn to Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. This data will be critical in shaping expectations for future Fed policy moves.


With markets on edge and trade tensions escalating, investors will closely monitor upcoming developments, particularly Trump’s tariff announcement next week, which could further dictate market direction.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 26th March 2025.


GBP Comes Under Pressure From Tough Budget and Low Inflation!



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The British Pound is one of the worst-performing currencies of the day. The poor performance is due to pressure from low Inflation and what investors expect to be a tough budget. Why is the UK announcing a stricter budget and for how long will there be pressure on the GBP? Let’s find out!


Reasons Investors Are Cautious About The New UK Budget


The Pound has fallen 0.32% against the USD and more than 0.50% against the Australian and Canadian Dollar. The Pound is not the worst-performing currency of the day yet, but if the GBPJPY continues to decline as it has over the past hour, the GBP will be at the bottom of the table.


The downward momentum is due to the inflation rate which fell from 3.00% to 2.8%. Previously investors were expecting the rate to remain at 3.00%. Many investors fear the fall in inflation is due to weak economic growth and struggling consumer demand. If this continues to be the case, the Bank of England is likely to consider a rate cut.



GBPUSD 30-Minute Chart on March 26th


The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) released its retail sales index for March today, showing a decline from -23.0 to -43.0, the lowest level in eight months, compared to the initial forecast of -28.0. According to CBI experts, businesses in the retail and wholesale sectors are experiencing pressure from global trade challenges, while the new government budget, which entails a substantial rise in debt, is further straining demand.


Another key factor contributing to the Pound’s downfall is the UK’s budget and the chancellor's speech. The new UK budget will be released today and the Chancellor will speak in parliament at 12:30 GMT. Investors fear that the chancellor will announce further austerity measures and cuts to the budget. This is mainly in order to spend more on defence and adjust the budget to the weaker economic performance.


The chancellor has also stated that 10,000 public sector jobs may be eliminated, with additional savings potentially coming from changes in the accounting treatment of billions of pounds reallocated from overseas aid to the defence budget.


The question that traders are asking is whether the Pound will continue to decline. This will primarily depend on how strict the budget is, the chancellor's growth projections and how the bond market reacts. Nonetheless, the technical analysis continues to provide a bearish and dim bias for the upcoming 24 hours.


GBPUSD - Technical Analysis Points Towards A Weakening GBP


The GBPUSD has now been declining since 18:00 GMT Tuesday and failed to form a higher high. Therefore price action is partially indicating downward price movement and this signal will likely strengthen if the price falls below 1.29011. The price is also trading below the 75-bar EMA, 100-bar SMA and below the neutral level of the RSI. These factors also strengthen the bearish bias of the currency exchange.


The US Dollar index is currently trading higher this morning but traders will monitor how the index will react to the European open. This is because the index has fallen 0.08% since the European Cash Open. Nonetheless, the momentum continues to remain mainly in favour of the Dollar. The only concern for traders is the support level at 1.29011.



USDX (US Dollar Index) 30-Minute Chart on March 26th


Key Takeaway Points:
1. Pound Weakness: The British Pound is struggling due to lower inflation and budget concerns.
2. Retail Sales Drop: The CBI retail index hit an eight-month low, signalling economic strain.
3. Austerity Fears: Investors worry about public sector cuts and defence spending shifts. The bond market reaction will be key for the Pound.
4. Bearish GBP Outlook: Technical indicators suggest further decline, pending budget impact.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 24th March 2025.


Market Uncertainty Intensifies Amid Tariff Concerns



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Uncertainty has been the driving force in financial markets this year, with recent weeks seeing increased volatility due to ongoing tariff concerns. The global economy is grappling with the effects of the Trump Administration's levies, exacerbating fears over inflation and economic growth. Escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks continue to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. Central banks, while adopting a wait-and-see stance, lean towards a dovish bias (excluding the Bank of Japan) amid rising threats of economic slowdowns. More market turbulence is expected in the short term as the world anticipates the outcome of Trump's April 2 reciprocal tariff decision.


North America: Key Market Events and Economic Indicators
A packed economic calendar awaits the US this week, featuring key data releases, Federal Reserve commentary, and Treasury supply ahead of quarter-end. Markets remain fixated on the much-anticipated April 2 "tax date" for the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. However, in an unexpected turn, President Trump suggested "flexibility" on tariffs, adding another layer of uncertainty to market expectations.


Key economic releases include:
February PCE Price Index (Friday) – The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which will be closely monitored for signs of tariff impacts. January's data showed a 0.3% increase in both headline and core prices, with annual rates at 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. February’s report is expected to show a similar trend.
March Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) – Expected to decline by 4.3 points to 94.0, marking the lowest level in over four years.


Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday) – A crucial indicator of business investment and economic activity.
Flash March PMIs and Housing Data – Additional data points that could influence market sentiment.
Australia’s Inflation Data (Wednesday)
Federal Reserve officials are set to speak throughout the week, though clarity on future policy moves remains unlikely. Key remarks from voters such as Kugler, Barr, and Musalem will be closely analyzed.


Treasury Auctions and Market Yields
The Treasury market is preparing for $183 billion in shorter-dated note auctions:
*$69 billion in 2-year notes (Tuesday)[/b]
*$70 billion in 5-year notes (Wednesday)[/b]
*$44 billion in 7-year notes (Thursday)[/b]


The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged higher, while the dollar remained steady. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira dropped as market volatility persisted due to geopolitical uncertainties.


Stock Market Update: US and European Futures Rise
US and European stock futures climbed amid signs that the next round of President Trump’s tariffs may be more measured than initially feared. S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 futures advanced, while Asian equities posted mixed performance.


Key Developments Impacting Stocks
Targeted U.S. Tariffs: Reports suggest that the next round of US tariffs will be more focused rather than a broad-based global effort. China and Australia have warned of potential economic shocks from US trade policies.
Investor Sentiment: "The news of more targeted tariffs has been taken positively during early Asian trading hours, but markets remain on edge," said Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd.
Geopolitical Concerns: Turkish assets face increased volatility following the arrest of a key opposition politician, prompting the country’s central bank to hold a "technical meeting" with commercial lenders in preparation for further market swings.


Corporate and Sector-Specific News
Ant Group’s AI Strategy: The Jack Ma-backed Ant Group Co. is leveraging Chinese-made semiconductors to develop AI models that cut costs by 20%, boosting optimism in Chinese tech stocks.
DeepSeek’s AI Influence: The release of a lower-cost large language model by DeepSeek has fueled a 26% rally in Chinese technology shares this year, with analysts predicting further valuation expansion.
Commodity Markets: Oil prices remained stable amid uncertainty over new US tariffs and an expected increase in OPEC+ supply. Gold hovered around $3,027 per ounce, near its all-time high reached last Thursday.


Conclusion
With market volatility heightened by trade uncertainties and global economic concerns, investors will closely track developments in tariff policy, economic data, and central bank commentary for signs of future trends. As April 2 approaches, markets brace for potential disruptions and opportunities in response to evolving US trade strategies.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 21st March 2025.


Gold is Up 14% in 2025 But Has It Peaked?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Gold prices fell on Thursday for the first time this week after reaching a new all-time high. The asset’s safe-haven status drives its bullish trend as the White House confirms new tariffs on April 2nd. On the other hand, the decline, which continues this morning potentially is due to fears the price is overbought or at its peak.


Why Is Gold Increasing in Value?
The main bullish price driver for Gold is the risk appetite of the market due to fears of a recession. Even the White House acknowledges a short-term downturn, though the administration calls it a ‘transitional period’. A potential recession has also been mentioned by economists including the previous Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers, who advises the chances of a recession in 2025 is around 50%.


The possibility of a recession due to the new trade policy is not only driving the price of Gold but also bond yields and the stock market. The SNP500 has fallen almost 11% over the past 4-weeks. The risk appetite of the market can be seen through the poor performance of the stock market. Furthermore, the VIX index has fallen almost 11% while demand for bonds has risen.


In addition to this, the Federal Reserve made it clear that there is no clear sign yet that the economy will not experience a recession but does expect lower economic growth. The Federal Reserve reduced its projections for the US GDP Growth Rates. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve told journalists that the central bank will continue its wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainties of the trade policy. The Federal Reserve will opt for a reactive approach rather than a proactive approach which may unnecessarily push inflation higher.


Trade Tariffs on April 2nd
Donald Trump imposed 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports, along with 25% duties on goods from Canada and Mexico. He also enforced 25% sanctions on imported steel and aluminium, prompting retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, unemployment rose to 4.1%, retail sales by only 0.2%, and business activity remained sluggish.


Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of a potential US recession, and experts suggest that if the trend continues, the Federal Reserve may adopt a more ‘dovish’ stance, pressuring the US dollar. At 20:00 (GMT+2) today, investors await the regulator’s meeting results and a new dot chart forecasting interest rate cuts. Any signal of borrowing cost adjustments could drive XAU/USD prices upward.


XAUUSD (Gold) - Technical Analysis
The price of XAUUSD this morning during the Asian Session fell, forming a lower swing low for the first time since March 10th. The question which most traders are now asking is whether the price will now continue retracing downwards. Currently, the price in the medium term remains above the 75-EMA and above the 100-SMA which indicates the price still maintains its bullish bias.





However, the price below the VWAP and order flow shows that so far sell orders outnumber buy orders. Therefore, due to the mixed signals, the volatility in the short term will be vital for technical analysts. For example, if the price falls to $3,026, 65% of the retracement has regained downward momentum potentially indicating a downward trend in the short term. Alternatively, at $3,027.90 the instrument will form a bearish breakout which again potentially indicates downward momentum.


However, if the price increases above $3,034.17, a bullish breakout would have formed and the price will be again trading above the main Moving Average.


Key Takeaway Points:
1. Gold prices surged to an all-time high before dropping, possibly due to overbought concerns.
2. Economic uncertainty and trade policies fuel demand for gold, bonds, and a declining stock market.
3. The Federal Reserve acknowledges economic slowdown risks but remains reactive rather than proactive.
4. The US plans tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, contributing to market volatility and economic concerns.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 20th March 2025.


The SNP500 Remains Shaky As Stocks Attempt To Recover!



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The SNP500 loses momentum and declines more than 1.00% during Thursday’s European session. The decline results in the SNP500 losing previous gains from Wednesday. The main cause for the lower price is due to the Federal Reserve lowering its projections for the economic outlook. In addition to this, traders are fearing April 2nd. Why is ‘April 2nd’ triggering a lower risk appetite?


April 2nd And What It Means For The Market?


On April 2nd the US is anticipated to impose reciprocal tariffs on global markets. In other words, like-for-like tariffs mean that the US will charge its competition as they are charged themselves. According to the White House’s latest comments, ‘unless the tariff and non-tariff barriers are at the same level, or the US has higher tariffs, the tariffs will go into effect’.





The market’s risk appetite has significantly fallen as this date approaches as investors fear these policies will trigger lower economic growth. This includes the economy globally and within the US. The VIX index, which is known to indicate the risk appetite of the market, fell in value by 16% over the past week. This week, indeed the SNP500 rose in value, however, today the VIX index shows signs of strengthening. If the VIX rises, this may further indicate negative price movement of the SNP500 and the broader stock market.


A potential positive for the stock market is if the Federal Reserve takes a more dovish approach in April and May. In today’s early hours, President Trump attempted to pressure the Federal Reserve into considering a rate cut at the next meeting. According to experts, the President is attempting to prompt the Fed to provide a cushion for April 2nd.


The Federal Reserve


Yesterday, US Fed officials maintained the interest rate at 4.50%, aligning with analysts' expectations. They highlighted rising economic uncertainty due to new trade tariffs and the unclear impact of sanctions on inflation, opting for a wait-and-see approach while monitoring data.


Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that long-term consumer price index projections remain stable, with inflation expected to rise temporarily. The Central Bank changed its predictions for the upcoming quarters. According to updated estimates, Inflation in 2025 is expected to be at 2.7%, compared to 2.5% previously, and Unemployment could be fixed at 4.4%, which is 0.1% more than the previous forecast. Simultaneously, the expected growth rate of the US economy has been revised from 2.1% to 1.7%.


Additionally, the quantitative tightening (QT) program will start slowing down on April 1. Following the meeting, the Dollar strengthened against major currencies.


SNP500 - Technical Analysis


On the 2-hour chart, the price of the SNP500 has witnessed mixed results throughout the day but has managed to remain above the major trend lines and in the bullish regression channel of the Bollinger Bands. However, on intraday timeframes, indications remain mixed, meaning traders should be prepared for volatility in both directions.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 19th March 2025.


Stock Markets Mixed as Investors Await US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Asian stock markets showed mixed performance on Wednesday as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Global markets remain on edge, with traders looking for guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on future monetary policy.


US stock futures edged higher, while oil prices declined for a second consecutive session.


Yen Weakens as Bank of Japan Holds Rates Steady


The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, signalling concerns over global trade tensions while acknowledging domestic conditions that support further hikes. The central bank added trade policies to its risk outlook, reflecting heightened uncertainty as President Trump's tariff threats loom.


Despite strong wage growth and inflation at 4%, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda appears cautious, suggesting the next rate hike may follow a six-month pace—possibly in June or July. Meanwhile, Japan’s latest trade data showed a surplus in February, with exports rising over 11%. The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, in line with expectations. Similarly, the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to maintain its current rate stance.


The Japanese Yen continued its decline against the US dollar after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) opted to keep its policy interest rate unchanged, citing ongoing global trade concerns and domestic economic trends, including rising wages and inflation. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cut rates starting in September, keeping the rate gap with Japan-wide.





The Yen slipped as much as 0.4% to 150 per dollar, extending losses from last week’s five-month high. The decision was widely expected, as all economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated that the BOJ would maintain its current policy stance.


In its latest statement, the BOJ highlighted trade policies and global economic conditions as key risks to its outlook. This marks a shift from previous statements, reflecting heightened uncertainty in global markets. Over the past year, Japan’s central bank has raised interest rates three times since ending its negative interest rate policy, the last of its kind worldwide.


Key Focus: US Federal Reserve’s Rate Decision


All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and Powell’s press conference, where investors hope to gain insight into future rate moves. The dot plot forecast is expected to align with December’s projections, suggesting two 25-basis-point rate cuts per year through mid-2027. Analysts anticipate rate reductions in June and December 2025, though Powell is likely to emphasize a measured approach toward the 2% inflation target.


US stock markets saw losses across major indices:


*S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 5,614.66.
*The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.6% to 41,581.31.
*Nasdaq Composite slid 1.7% to 17,504.12.


Tech Stocks Under Pressure


Tesla dropped 5.3%, weighed down by slowing electric vehicle (EV) sales and rising competition. China’s BYD unveiled an ultra-fast charging system, intensifying pressure on Tesla’s market dominance.


Meanwhile, Alphabet (Google's parent company) lost 2.2% after announcing a $32 billion acquisition of cybersecurity firm Wiz, its largest-ever deal, aimed at strengthening cloud computing and AI capabilities.


The broader technology sector continued to struggle amid concerns over overvaluation and trade tensions.


*Nvidia dropped 3.3%, even as it hosted its "AI Woodstock" event.
*Super Micro Computer tumbled 9.6%.
*Palantir Technologies lost 4%.


Investors remain cautious about former President Donald Trump’s trade policies, which could impact US economic growth. Tariff uncertainty adds pressure on the Federal Reserve, as lower interest rates encourage borrowing but could also fuel inflation concerns.


Oil Prices Decline as Market Awaits Fed Decision


Oil prices slipped for a second straight session, pressured by rising US crude inventories and persistent concerns over global trade tensions.


*Brent crude dropped 0.7%, trading near $70 per barrel.
*West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovered around $66 per barrel.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 4.6 million barrel build in US crude stockpiles last week, although inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, declined. Official EIA data is due later Wednesday.


Market sentiment remains fragile as investors assess OPEC+ supply increases and weak demand in China, compounding concerns over a potential economic slowdown. Geopolitical tensions remain in focus, particularly in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Biden administration is closely monitoring Iranian involvement in Houthi attacks, while Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected US calls for a ceasefire, instead limiting strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.