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    Thread: HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

    1. #1 Collapse post
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      Date: 24th March 2025.


      Market Uncertainty Intensifies Amid Tariff Concerns



      Trading Leveraged products is Risky


      Uncertainty has been the driving force in financial markets this year, with recent weeks seeing increased volatility due to ongoing tariff concerns. The global economy is grappling with the effects of the Trump Administration's levies, exacerbating fears over inflation and economic growth. Escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks continue to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. Central banks, while adopting a wait-and-see stance, lean towards a dovish bias (excluding the Bank of Japan) amid rising threats of economic slowdowns. More market turbulence is expected in the short term as the world anticipates the outcome of Trump's April 2 reciprocal tariff decision.


      North America: Key Market Events and Economic Indicators
      A packed economic calendar awaits the US this week, featuring key data releases, Federal Reserve commentary, and Treasury supply ahead of quarter-end. Markets remain fixated on the much-anticipated April 2 "tax date" for the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. However, in an unexpected turn, President Trump suggested "flexibility" on tariffs, adding another layer of uncertainty to market expectations.


      Key economic releases include:
      February PCE Price Index (Friday) – The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which will be closely monitored for signs of tariff impacts. January's data showed a 0.3% increase in both headline and core prices, with annual rates at 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. February’s report is expected to show a similar trend.
      March Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) – Expected to decline by 4.3 points to 94.0, marking the lowest level in over four years.


      Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday) – A crucial indicator of business investment and economic activity.
      Flash March PMIs and Housing Data – Additional data points that could influence market sentiment.
      Australia’s Inflation Data (Wednesday)
      Federal Reserve officials are set to speak throughout the week, though clarity on future policy moves remains unlikely. Key remarks from voters such as Kugler, Barr, and Musalem will be closely analyzed.


      Treasury Auctions and Market Yields
      The Treasury market is preparing for $183 billion in shorter-dated note auctions:
      *$69 billion in 2-year notes (Tuesday)[/b]
      *$70 billion in 5-year notes (Wednesday)[/b]
      *$44 billion in 7-year notes (Thursday)[/b]


      The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged higher, while the dollar remained steady. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira dropped as market volatility persisted due to geopolitical uncertainties.


      Stock Market Update: US and European Futures Rise
      US and European stock futures climbed amid signs that the next round of President Trump’s tariffs may be more measured than initially feared. S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 futures advanced, while Asian equities posted mixed performance.


      Key Developments Impacting Stocks
      Targeted U.S. Tariffs: Reports suggest that the next round of US tariffs will be more focused rather than a broad-based global effort. China and Australia have warned of potential economic shocks from US trade policies.
      Investor Sentiment: "The news of more targeted tariffs has been taken positively during early Asian trading hours, but markets remain on edge," said Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd.
      Geopolitical Concerns: Turkish assets face increased volatility following the arrest of a key opposition politician, prompting the country’s central bank to hold a "technical meeting" with commercial lenders in preparation for further market swings.


      Corporate and Sector-Specific News
      Ant Group’s AI Strategy: The Jack Ma-backed Ant Group Co. is leveraging Chinese-made semiconductors to develop AI models that cut costs by 20%, boosting optimism in Chinese tech stocks.
      DeepSeek’s AI Influence: The release of a lower-cost large language model by DeepSeek has fueled a 26% rally in Chinese technology shares this year, with analysts predicting further valuation expansion.
      Commodity Markets: Oil prices remained stable amid uncertainty over new US tariffs and an expected increase in OPEC+ supply. Gold hovered around $3,027 per ounce, near its all-time high reached last Thursday.


      Conclusion
      With market volatility heightened by trade uncertainties and global economic concerns, investors will closely track developments in tariff policy, economic data, and central bank commentary for signs of future trends. As April 2 approaches, markets brace for potential disruptions and opportunities in response to evolving US trade strategies.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
      Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Andria Pichidi
      HFMarkets

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 23rd April 2025.


      Trump Eases Market Fears: Stocks Surge as President Declares No Intention to Fire Fed Chair Powell.



      Trading Leveraged products is Risky


      US stock futures surged on Tuesday after President Donald Trump clarified he has ‘no intention’ of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — a statement that helped soothe Wall Street concerns over central bank independence and policy stability. The President was answering a wide range of questions from the Oval Office. He also said he expects to make a deal with China, but if there is not, it is not the end of the end. China tariffs will come down ‘substantially’, he added.


      ETFs tracking US equity futures are climbing and extending Tuesday's bounce in after-hours trading on these comments. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.2%, while S&P 500 futures advanced 1.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the rally with a 1.8% spike. Investors took comfort in Trump’s softened tone toward Powell, especially after recent criticisms and threats of dismissal that had roiled markets.


      Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said he ‘never did’ intend to remove Powell but reiterated his preference for lower interest rates. ‘I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates,’ Trump added.


      The president’s remarks came after he previously labelled Powell a ‘major loser’ and said his removal ‘couldn’t come fast enough.’ This shift in rhetoric signalled a truce, at least for now, between the White House and the central bank — calming investors rattled by fears of political interference in monetary policy.


      Asian Markets Climb on Powell News and Trade Optimism


      Global markets followed Wall Street’s lead. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.7%, Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi added 1.2%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.7%. The Shanghai Composite was little changed, down just 0.1%.


      The broader market mood was also lifted by new optimism around global trade. Trump indicated that tariffs on China could come down ‘substantially,’ while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called current tariff levels ‘unsustainable.’ Vice President JD Vance noted encouraging progress in US-India trade talks.





      Tesla Soars After Musk Commits More Time to Company


      Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped 5% in after-hours trading Tuesday despite disappointing first-quarter earnings. The electric vehicle maker missed Wall Street expectations, but investors were buoyed by CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that he will dedicate more time to Tesla.


      ‘Starting early next month, in May, my time allocation to DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] will drop significantly,’ Musk said during the post-earnings call, adding that he’ll spend only one to two days per week on DOGE and the rest focusing on Tesla. The company also reaffirmed plans to launch new vehicles in the first half of 2025.


      Oil Prices Rebound on Fed Comments and Inventory Data


      Crude oil extended gains following Trump’s assurance about Powell’s job security and a bullish industry report on US stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate climbed above $64 a barrel, reversing Monday’s losses triggered by political and economic uncertainty.


      But Bitcoin appears to be charting its own path


      Unlike stocks and bonds, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has climbed more than 8% during the same period, reaffirming its role — at least for now — as a hedge in investor portfolios. According to Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell, Bitcoin is doing “all the right things” to show it may be entering a new phase of market behavior, increasingly decoupled from traditional risk assets.


      Zooming out to the post-election period, Bitcoin has maintained its momentum even as stock market gains have reversed. While the S&P 500 has slipped below 5,300, Bitcoin is trading above $91,000 — significantly higher than its pre-election value of around $68,000.


      Of course, it's too early to call this a lasting trend. But in a climate where U.S.-centric investments are losing favor, Bitcoin’s recent resilience is turning heads across the financial world.





      Bank of Japan Seen Holding Rates Amid Global Trade Turbulence


      In Asia, a Reuters survey of economists revealed that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain its key interest rate through June, with a modest rate hike possibly coming in the third quarter. Only 52% of respondents now anticipate a rate hike between July and September, down from 70% last month.


      Economists cited the uncertain global outlook, driven in part by Trump’s unpredictable trade policies, as a major reason for the BOJ’s cautious approach. While Trump recently imposed a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and a 24% tariff on Japanese goods — later reduced to 10% for 90 days — the impact has so far been disruptive but not severe enough to derail Japan’s monetary policy path.


      Despite expected cuts to Japan’s economic growth forecast, 87% of surveyed economists said the country is unlikely to enter a recession. Many believe that a stronger yen and lower import costs could offset weaker exports, stabilizing the economy.


      ‘Exports will decline, but the strong yen will reduce import costs and boost corporate earnings,’ said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Research Institute. ‘And the suppression of consumer price increases is expected to support personal consumption, thereby an economic downturn is likely to be avoided.’


      Markets were on edge after days of tension between the White House and the Fed. But Trump’s assurance that Jerome Powell’s position is safe — coupled with positive trade signals — helped spark a broad-based market recovery, from equities to commodities. As earnings season and economic data roll in, investors will be watching closely for signs that this rally has staying power.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Andria Pichidi
      HFMarkets



      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 13th May 2025.


      US-China Deal Eases Recession Fears, Goldman Raises 2025 Targets.



      Trading Leveraged products is Risky


      Investors continue to focus on the weekend's trade deal between the US and China which continues to prompt vital trends. The agreement between the two largest economies changes the outlook for almost all assets. Although investors will also start to turn their focus to a pending trade agreement with the EU and this week’s inflation data.


      Global Stocks Rebound Aiming To Fully Regain Previous Losses


      The global stock market rose significantly after the announcement of a trade deal with China to lower tariffs. You can find the details of the agreement in yesterday’s article. The SNP500 rose 3.26% and has regained 79% of the stock market crash from March-April. Of the most influential components (stocks within the SNP500) 82% rose in value with mainly defensive stocks declining. Defensive stocks include Philip Morris, Johnson & Johnson and Coca-Cola.


      Due to the trade agreement most economies have lowered their projections for a recession in 2025. Previously economists were advising a 30-50% chance of a recession in the second half of the year. However, these projections have now significantly fallen and will do further if the US and EU also sign a trade agreement.


      In today’s early hours Goldman Sachs advised it is increasing its target within the stock market. Goldman Sachs strategists, such as David Kostin, now project the SNP500 to potentially rise to $6,500 within the next 12 months. Previously the estimate was between $6,100-6,200. However, analysts also note that the US-China agreement is still temporary and will expire in 89 days.



      SNP500 Daily Chart


      In the short-term, investors will be laser focused on the Consumer Price Index (inflation). The CPI is due to be made public at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect the US inflation rate to remain at 2.4%. If the rate reads as expected or lower, the stock market potentially can further rise as economists will expect a Federal Reserve rate cut.


      GBPUSD - The Pound Struggles Despite Positive Employment Data


      The US Dollar has been the best performing currency of the week as investors return to the Greenback. This is largely due to the trade agreement with China and investors correcting previous market pricings. However, the USD is retracing lower on Tuesday giving back some od this week’s gains.


      The Great British Pound on the other hand is also supported by the latest employment data from this morning. Although this has not been mirrored on the price. The UK Claimant Count Change fell to +5,200 and the Average Earnings Index read 5.5%. Both announcements were better than previous expectations. However, the GBP still remains the worst performing currency of the day so far after the USD.


      Yesterday, Bank of England Monetary Policy Director Megan Green stated that while wage and consumer price growth continues to slow, the figures remain meaningful. However, she also noted a rise in medium-term inflation expectations among the public.


      Gold Forms a Retracement Pattern and Obtains A Divergence Indication


      The price of Gold rose 0.88% on Tuesday almost fully correcting the bearish price action from Monday, bar the bearish price gap. Currently, the metal is finding support at the $3,201.00 support level from April 12th and May 1st. However, the upward price movement of the day is forming a similar pattern to previous retracements. Therefore, it is vital for Gold traders to note that the price movement could either be a retracement or change in trend.



      Gold 2-Hour Chart


      Currently, in terms of fundamentals, the data is indicating a bearish bias, although some positive factors remain. For example, if the Federal Reserve starts to take a more dovish tone due to the trade deal, Gold may continue to be used as a hedge against inflation. However, if countries continue signing trade deals and Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement in Thursday’s negotiations, renewed bearish momentum might hit Gold.


      According to the White House, President Trump may possibly attend the negotiations on Thursday between Ukraine and Russia.


      Key Takeaway Points:


      * The weekend trade agreement between the US and China has boosted investor confidence and shifted the outlook across global assets, reducing recession fears for 2025.
      * Global stock markets surged, with the S&P 500 up 3.26%. Defensive stocks underperformed, while 82% of components posted gains.
      * Investor attention now turns to today’s US CPI data and the potential US-EU trade agreement. A softer inflation reading could trigger Fed rate cut expectations.
      * The US Dollar leads among currencies but is slightly retracing. The Pound is supported by strong UK jobs data but remains one of the day’s weaker performers.
      * Gold rose 0.88% Tuesday but remains at risk of renewed bearish pressure if global trade deals continue and Ukraine-Russia negotiations succeed.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Michalis Efthymiou
      HFMarkets



      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 4th June 2025.


      PMI Surprises, ADP Misses, and Trade Talks Tease Progress.



      Trading Leveraged products is Risky


      * ADP jobs data raises Fed rate cut expectations
      * Eurozone and UK PMIs revised up, supporting ECB easing
      * Mortgage applications and housing data remain weak
      * Oil prices stable amid supply concerns and OPEC+ decisions
      * Trade optimism builds ahead of the G7, boosting European markets


      Global markets are trading cautiously today as investors digest a mix of stronger-than-expected European PMIs, weaker US labour market data, and renewed trade deal speculation ahead of the G7 summit.


      US Futures Slide as Trade Tensions and Weak ADP Jobs Data Raise Concerns


      US stock futures turned red midday Wednesday after an initial rebound was erased by a weaker-than-expected ADP private payrolls report. The May ADP print showed just 37,000 jobs added, far below expectations and the slowest pace since March 2023. The goods-producing sector shed 2,000 jobs, with notable declines in mining and manufacturing. Services added 36,000 jobs, but key segments like professional and health services saw job losses.


      The report raises downside risks for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and reinforces growing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Former President Trump echoed this sentiment, criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell and demanding rate cuts, pointing to Europe’s rate cut spree.


      ‘Too Late’ Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES!
      Treasury yields knee-jerked lower, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.42%, and the 2-year at 3.92%, before retracing slightly. Wall Street futures dipped, with the NASDAQ down -0.13%, and the S&P 500 and Dow both off -0.03%.


      European Stocks Rise on PMI Upgrades and Optimism Over US-EU Trade Talks


      Despite US weakness, European stock markets are mostly higher, led by the German DAX, which hit a fresh record high. Gains came after stronger-than-expected revisions to Eurozone and UK PMIs, but also after the German government approved a new tax relief package. A stronger-than-expected batch of PMI revisions across the Eurozone and the UK fueled optimism, with both regions’ Composite PMIs now showing slight expansion rather than contraction.


      * Eurozone Composite PMI was revised up to 50.2, shifting from contraction to slight expansion. Services PMI also improved to 49.7, though still below the 50-neutral level. Inflation pressures remained mixed, but falling input costs provided some relief.


      * UK Composite PMI improved to 50.3, driven by a sharp rebound in services to 50.9. Despite weak new orders and higher costs, business optimism reached a six-month high, suggesting potential resilience in the second half of the year.


      The data supports the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expected rate cut tomorrow, with HCOB analysts arguing that slowing goods inflation could justify further easing. While the ECB has in fact cut seven times (from 4.00% to 2.25%), and the Fed has eased by 100 bps, Trump’s comment underscores the political pressure facing the central bank amid cooling growth signals.


      Geopolitical Spotlight: G7 Deal Hopes Rise


      A high-level meeting in Paris between EU and US officials has stoked hope for broader trade negotiations—particularly with China.


      However, mixed signals dominate. While Trump commented overnight that President Xi is ‘extremely hard to make a deal with,’ China’s top diplomat countered by urging the US to steer the relationship ‘onto the right track.’ Meanwhile, reports from The Toronto Sun indicate that a potential US-Canada deal could be announced before the upcoming G7 summit, further boosting risk appetite. Trump's new envoy to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, struck an optimistic tone during a speech in Toronto, fueling speculation. Sources suggest Ottawa is aware of necessary concessions, and there’s optimism for at least a framework deal rather than a full USMCA overhaul.


      This could be part of a broader Trump strategy to de-escalate global trade tensions, with implications for tariffs and cross-border trade in the weeks ahead.


      Currency Markets & Geopolitical Watch


      Crude oil prices hovered near the flatline as the market digested mixed supply signals:


      * USOIL (WTI) traded at $63.22 per barrel, down -0.3%, while Brent slipped to $65.42.
      * Traders are awaiting official US inventory data after industry data pointed to a larger-than-expected draw of 3.3 million barrels.
      * OPEC+ continues to raise output, while Canadian wildfires cause temporary disruptions, although some production has resumed.
      * The DXY Dollar Index is slightly lower on the day at 98.88, after touching an overnight high of 99.39.
      * Gold slipped -0.2% to $3,347/oz


      Outlook: All Eyes on Friday’s NFP and ECB Decision


      Markets are in a holding pattern, torn between optimism on the trade front and deteriorating labour market signals. The ECB decision tomorrow, followed by Friday’s US jobs report, could significantly shape expectations for global monetary policy into the summer.


      While equities show resilience, undercurrents of softening growth, lingering inflation pressures, and political friction suggest volatility is far from over.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Andria Pichidi
      HFMarkets



      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 19th June 2025.


      Fed Members Opt For Hawkish Stace Amid Rising Inflation!



      Trading Leveraged products is Risky


      Gold and the US stock market declines as a result of yesterday’s Federal Reserve rate decision and comments. Since yesterday’s open Gold is trading 1.19% lower, the SNP500 0.35% lower, while the real winner seems to be the US Dollar. Why is the US Dollar on the rise?


      The Federal Reserve and US Dollar


      The US Dollar Index is trading 0.55% higher from the time the Federal Reserve’s rate decision was made public. The reason for the rise in the US Dollar is the hawkish stance of the central bank. According to the Fed’s report, of the 19 members, seven members believe the monetary policy will not change at all in 2025. Previously, the number of members supporting this option was four.


      However, according to economists, the most likely outcome is two rate cuts in 2025. The first takes place in September (0.25%) and the second later in the year. According to Fed Chairman, Jerome Powells, the interest rates will continue to depend on the upcoming data. Although, the data according to the Federal Reserve is going to prompt a hawkish stance. According to the Fed’s projections, economic growth is likely to fall to 1.4% while inflation will rise to 3%. This is due to tariffs and higher oil prices.


      This increases the possibility of no rate cuts in 2025. Nonetheless, the employment sector will hold the key if the Federal Open Market Committee starts to consider a cut. Yes, the Fed will be reluctant to cut rates while inflation rises, however, they may not be willing to risk an imbalance in the employment sector or even a recession. Currently, the Unemployment Rate in the US has remained at 4.2% for the past three months. On the other hand, the number of unemployment claims added weekly continues to slowly rise.



      US Dollar Index 1-Hour Chart


      Today is a bank holiday in the US and no major economic data will be made public. Due to this, investors may also see slightly lower volatility levels due to less orders. Tomorrow the US will release the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which is known to trigger moderate volatility levels.


      Currently, all indices are trading lower while risk indicators trade higher. As a result, the US Dollar is also benefiting from a risk-off appetite within the market. Currently, the US Dollar is the best-performing currency while the New Zealand and Australian Dollars are the worst.


      Lastly, investors should note that the possibility of the US attacking Iran seems to be increasing. Democrats insist that Trump must seek congressional approval before engaging in potential military action against Iran. Experts advise the possibility of US involvement is currently 50:50. When the US previously bombed Libya in 2016 the US Dollar significantly declined.


      US Dollar Index - Technical Analysis


      The price of the US Dollar Index is trading higher this morning but it is forming a head and shoulder pattern. This provides a slight indication of a retracement, however, if the price rises above 98.67, the head and shoulder pattern will no longer be relevant. The price on a 2-hour timeframe is also trading above the 75-Period EMA indicating buyers are regaining control. The next resistance level on the index can be seen at 99.30.


      Key Takeaway Levels:


      * The US Dollar Index rose 0.55% after the Fed signalled fewer rate cuts in 2025, with seven members now expecting no cuts, up from four.
      * Gold is down 1.19% and the SNP500 is down 0.35% following the Fed’s decision, reflecting market risk-off sentiment.
      * The Fed projects slower growth (1.4%) and higher inflation (3%) due to tariffs and oil prices, but the job market remains a key factor for future rate decisions.
      * Growing speculation about potential US military action against Iran adds uncertainty, supporting the USD as a safe-haven asset.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Michalis Efthymiou
      HFMarkets



      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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