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[HFM]

Date: 18th March 2025.


Will Gold Continue Its Bullish Trend or Is Buying Too Risky?



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The price momentum of Gold will partially depend on this week’s Central Banks guidance on their monetary policy. So far, the price of Gold has risen in value due to expectations of further interest rate cuts in 2025 and recession fears. Additionally, significantly higher demand from retail investors has contributed to its upward momentum.


Will Gold Maintain Momentum?


In the last quarter of 2024, economists and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan set a prediction that Gold will reach $3,000. The $3,000 target set by US institutions has been a key talking point. This video from early December is a key example. So far in 2025 alone, the price of Gold has risen 13.60% and more than 31% over the past 12 months.


So far, the price momentum does not show signs of slowing nor is the bullish momentum triggering indications that the price is overbought. Overbought indications can be triggered through the RSI, divergence or price rejection patterns. Neither of these are currently forming. However, traders should stay vigilant, as the sharp price increase may encourage investors to capitalize on profits by selling at higher level.





The Impact of This Week’s Central Banks and the Federal Reserve Meetings on Gold


This week the market and Gold traders are paying close attention to the Central Bank Meetings around the globe. Particularly, traders are focusing on the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank. One of the key reasons Gold is increasing in demand is due to the uncertainty of Trump’s trade policies, recession fears and also interest rate cuts.


Nonetheless, this week the heads of the above-mentioned central banks will comment on interest rates in the foreseeable future, the state of the economy and their views on the new trade policy. If the Fed's comments on the economy remain positive and a hawkish stance is taken on rates, Gold can witness short-term pressure. Short-term pressure could trigger the instrument to form a retracement. A retracement based on the 75-period Moving Average and 100-period SMA could fall between $2,941.60 and $2,961.75.





Meanwhile, Gold may also face pressure from the European Commission's large-scale rearmament plans, enhancing the region's investment appeal. The fiscal policy’s expansionary appeal could ignite economic growth and a lesser need for the ECB to cut its rates. Investors are also closely monitoring the German parliament's vote on a proposed €500 billion special fund aimed at infrastructure and defence projects. The higher investor sentiment can also be seen via the European stock market. The German DAX has risen 4.20% over the past week, the Euro Stoxx 50 3.00% and the IBEX by 3.06%.


Therefore, the central bank’s comments on the monetary policy and the resilience of the economy can be vital for Gold. Lastly, President Trump and President Putin are also scheduled to speak later this afternoon regarding Ukraine. If the talks bear fruit the market’s higher market sentiment may also pressure Gold.


XAUUSD - Technical Analysis
The price action of the XAUUSD will depend on this week’s events and the US Dollar Index. Currently, the US Dollar Index is trading 0.08% higher but not high enough to pressure Gold. The VIX, a well-known risk indicator, is trading 1.10% lower which is also indicating an improved appetite so far.


The latest UFTC report shows that real-money-backed bullish positions total 215.627K, compared to 33.467K for bearish positions. Over the past week, buyers reduced their contracts by 1.429K, while sellers cut theirs by 1.016K, signalling the continuation of the current trend. The asset also remains above the VWAP and with positive cumulative delta statistics.


On the 2-hour chart, the price remains in the bullish zone of the RSI and the MACD. In addition to this, the price is currently trading 1.85% higher than the 75-period EMA which also indicates buyers are controlling the market. On the 3-minute timeframe, the price swings continue to form mainly higher highs and lows, as well as trade above the 200-period SMA.


By evaluating this data and indications, the price keeps its bullish bias. However, if the price falls below $3,009.80, indications in the short term may change.


Key Takeaway Points:


* Gold’s Momentum: Gold has surged 13.6% in 2025, driven by interest rate cut expectations, recession fears, and strong retail demand.
* Central Banks’ Impact: This week’s Fed, BoJ, BoE, and SNB meetings could influence Gold, especially if a hawkish stance is taken. Particularly, if the central banks also predict a resilient economy.
* Technical Strength: Gold remains in a bullish trend with no overbought signals, but traders should watch for potential retracements.
* Geopolitical Factors: European rearmament plans and Trump-Putin talks may impact Gold’s demand and market sentiment.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 8th April 2025.


Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen



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Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.


However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.


In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.


Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.


China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’


Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.


If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.


In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.


Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.


Trump Talks Tough on EU Too


Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’


The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.





Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama


Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.


The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.


Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts


Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.


Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.





Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.


However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.


In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.


Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.


Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist


With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 06th May 2025.


Wall Street Rally Ends | Fed Decision & Trade War Weigh.



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Wall Street’s Longest Rally Since 2004 Ends Amid Trade Uncertainty and Weak Tech Performance


Wall Street’s nine-day winning streak—the longest since 2004—came to a halt as bullish momentum faded. Major US indices closed lower: the Nasdaq dropped 0.74%, the S&P 500 fell 0.64%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.24%. Despite easing concerns over tariffs, lingering uncertainty surrounding their long-term impact kept investors on the sidelines.


A stronger-than-expected ISM services report, which included a sharp rise in prices paid, and optimistic remarks from Treasury Secretary Bessent, failed to lift sentiment. Apple led the market declines, while media and entertainment stocks—including Disney—fell after a 100% tariff was announced on imported films. Berkshire Hathaway also declined following Warren Buffett’s retirement announcement after six decades as CEO.


Treasury Yields Climb as Rate-Cut Hopes Fade


Treasury yields rose as upbeat economic data tempered expectations for rate cuts. The 2-year yield increased 1.2 basis points to 3.836%, the 3-year note ended 1 bp higher at 3.810%, the 10-year yield advanced 3.7 bps to 4.358%, and the 30-year yield climbed 4.2 bps to 4.830%. This marked the third straight session of yield increases. Despite a strong 3-year auction, bonds remained under pressure.


US Dollar Index Slides Below 100; Greenback Faces Broad Weakness


The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below the 100 mark, closing at 99.809 after touching a high of 100.030 and a low of 99.464. The dollar weakened against most G10 currencies and lost ground to several Asian counterparts as rate differentials failed to offer support.


Nevertheless, stronger US economic data—including accelerated activity among US service providers—helped the dollar edge higher during the session, easing a rapid appreciation in Asian currencies spurred by optimism over potential trade agreements.


Asia Forex Volatility Increases Amid Trade Hopes


The greenback gained 0.2% after the ISM data release. The Taiwanese dollar dropped 0.1% after Monday's historic surge—the strongest since the 1980s. The yen also weakened slightly. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s currency saw its biggest inversion in over two decades as the spread between the spot rate and one-year NDFs hit 3,000 pips, signalling ongoing selling pressure on the US dollar.


Global Market Reaction and Oil Rebound


Equity index futures for the S&P 500 declined 0.4% after the index snapped its longest rally in nearly two decades. European and Asian markets mirrored the US retreat. Cash trading in Treasuries was halted during the Asian session due to a Japanese holiday.


Oil prices rebounded slightly from four-year lows. US crude rose $0.74 to $57.87 per barrel, while Brent crude also gained $0.74 to settle at $60.97. However, WTI crude remained down 1.96% on the day, closing at $56.81 amid concerns about a global supply glut. OPEC+ announced it would increase output by 411,000 barrels per day starting June 1, contributing to a 4% drop in prices on Monday.





Gold Surges on Chinese Demand; Equities Under Pressure
Gold prices jumped 2.84%, reaching $3333.22 per ounce, driven by increased demand from China. Chinese markets rose after reopening from the Golden Week holiday. The Shanghai Composite added 0.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.4%, Taiwan’s Taiex edged up 0.2%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2%.


Tech Stocks Lead US Declines; Fed Decision in Focus
On Wall Street, tech giants dragged the market lower. Apple fell 3.1%, Amazon dropped 1.9%, and Tesla lost 2.4%. Palantir sank more than 9% in after-hours trading following disappointing results, while Ford warned of a $1.5 billion profit hit due to tariffs, causing its stock to fall 2.5%.


Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery lost 1.9% and 2% respectively after President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on foreign-made films. Meanwhile, shoemaker Skechers soared 24.3% on news it would be acquired for $9 billion by 3G Capital.


Trade War Escalates as Tariff Policies Create Market Turmoil
Tariff-related volatility continues to dominate market sentiment. Trump’s unpredictable trade measures—often announced or reversed overnight—have undermined the dollar’s traditional role as a safe haven and forced investors to reconsider US exposure. A recent 145% tariff on Chinese imports has triggered a steep decline in shipping activity and logistics.


According to a Caixin survey, China's services sector activity fell to its lowest non-pandemic level, pushing Chinese firms’ overall optimism to its lowest since records began in April 2012, prompting further job cuts.


Outlook: Federal Reserve Decision and Inflation Risks Loom
Attention now turns to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady after cutting them three times in 2024. With inflation hovering just above the 2% target and economic uncertainty lingering, policymakers are likely to maintain a cautious stance.


The US economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1—the first quarterly decline in three years—raising concerns about tariff driven slowdown. Inflation fears are resurfacing, compounding market anxieties as investors await clearer guidance from the Fed and potential developments on the trade front.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.