HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 7th March 2025.


How Will Gold React After Today’s Non-Farm Employment Change?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


As the US employment data approaches, Gold continues to trade sideways showing range-bound trading conditions. This is primarily due to investors waiting for further data to determine Gold’s intrinsic value. How will today’s Non-Farm Payroll release influence the price of Gold?


Will Gold Break Out of Its Range After Today’s NFP Release?


The Non-Farm Employment Change will be in the spotlight as investors expect the figure to remain relatively low. However, traders are also focused on the Unemployment Rate and Average Monthly Earnings. If this afternoon’s employment data reads similar to current expectations, the price of Gold may continue witnessing range-bound trading conditions. In this scenario, the average price of the past three days would be key. The average price is currently $2,913.70.





Whereas, if the NFP indicates an employment sector which continues to show resilience and strong data, the price of Gold may witness a decline. This is mainly due to strong employment data strengthening the USD, boosting the US stocks, and reducing 2025 rate cuts. If the price of Gold is to decline, Moving Averages indicate the price could fall between $2,899.00 and $2,906.75 in the short term. However, this would depend on how much stronger the employment data is.


On the other hand, if the Unemployment Rate rises and the Non-Farm Employment Change falls below 155,000, Gold could quickly regain momentum. The weaker employment data would increase the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March or could make a cut certain for May 2025. As a result, the weaker US Dollar could support Gold as well as the market’s lower risk appetite. Gold’s safe haven status can come into play if data is significantly weaker.


US Employment Sector


Yesterday’s labour market data showed initial jobless claims rose to 221,000, lower than the expected 234,000 and the previous 242,000. The four-week average increased slightly to 224,250, while total benefit recipients climbed from 1.855 million to 1.897 million, exceeding the 1.88 million forecast. However, the main negativity came from the ADP Employment Change which fell to 77,000, the lowest in three years.


The labour market remains under pressure, showing signs of cooling. If Friday’s federal data confirms this trend, the chances of Gold reaching the $3,000 target set by Wall Street increases.


China Continues Boosting Gold Demand!


China has launched a pilot program allowing ten national insurance companies to invest in gold through standard contracts, limited to 1% of their available assets. The country continues to be one of the countries driving demand for the commodity significantly higher along with Russia, India and Turkey. With industry revenues exceeding $700 billion, even modest investments could boost global demand for gold by 1.5–2.0% according to reports.


Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis


The White House announced a one-month delay on the 25% tariff for vehicles under the USMCA trade agreement. Economists also advise that the US is looking to negotiate with both Canada and Mexico on trade policies. If an agreement is made, the price of Gold may decline due to a stronger US Dollar and higher market sentiment. Currently, the US Dollar Index trades 0.37% lower and is the worst-performing currency of the day which is a positive for Gold.


In terms of technical analysis and price action, the asset has been witnessing range-bound conditions between $2,891 and $2,929.85. If these conditions are to continue the average price of $2,913.70 will be key and may be continuously hit. However, the price remains slightly above the 75-Bar EMA and 100-Bar SMA indicating a slight bullish bias. The instrument is also trading above the VWAP and RSI 50.00 level which is another positive for bullish traders.


Key Takeaway Points:


* Gold remains range-bound as investors await US employment data, with the NFP release likely to determine its next move. Analysts expect the US to add a further 159,000 jobs and the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.00%.
* Strong employment data could strengthen the US Dollar and push Gold lower. While weaker data may boost Gold by increasing Fed rate cut expectations.
* China’s new gold investment program and ongoing demand from Russia, India, and Turkey could further drive global gold prices higher.
* Technical indicators suggest a slightly bullish bias, but Gold remains within a defined range between $2,891 and $2,929.85, with $2,913.70 as a key level.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 21st March 2025.


Gold is Up 14% in 2025 But Has It Peaked?



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Gold prices fell on Thursday for the first time this week after reaching a new all-time high. The asset’s safe-haven status drives its bullish trend as the White House confirms new tariffs on April 2nd. On the other hand, the decline, which continues this morning potentially is due to fears the price is overbought or at its peak.


Why Is Gold Increasing in Value?
The main bullish price driver for Gold is the risk appetite of the market due to fears of a recession. Even the White House acknowledges a short-term downturn, though the administration calls it a ‘transitional period’. A potential recession has also been mentioned by economists including the previous Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers, who advises the chances of a recession in 2025 is around 50%.


The possibility of a recession due to the new trade policy is not only driving the price of Gold but also bond yields and the stock market. The SNP500 has fallen almost 11% over the past 4-weeks. The risk appetite of the market can be seen through the poor performance of the stock market. Furthermore, the VIX index has fallen almost 11% while demand for bonds has risen.


In addition to this, the Federal Reserve made it clear that there is no clear sign yet that the economy will not experience a recession but does expect lower economic growth. The Federal Reserve reduced its projections for the US GDP Growth Rates. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve told journalists that the central bank will continue its wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainties of the trade policy. The Federal Reserve will opt for a reactive approach rather than a proactive approach which may unnecessarily push inflation higher.


Trade Tariffs on April 2nd
Donald Trump imposed 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports, along with 25% duties on goods from Canada and Mexico. He also enforced 25% sanctions on imported steel and aluminium, prompting retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, unemployment rose to 4.1%, retail sales by only 0.2%, and business activity remained sluggish.


Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of a potential US recession, and experts suggest that if the trend continues, the Federal Reserve may adopt a more ‘dovish’ stance, pressuring the US dollar. At 20:00 (GMT+2) today, investors await the regulator’s meeting results and a new dot chart forecasting interest rate cuts. Any signal of borrowing cost adjustments could drive XAU/USD prices upward.


XAUUSD (Gold) - Technical Analysis
The price of XAUUSD this morning during the Asian Session fell, forming a lower swing low for the first time since March 10th. The question which most traders are now asking is whether the price will now continue retracing downwards. Currently, the price in the medium term remains above the 75-EMA and above the 100-SMA which indicates the price still maintains its bullish bias.





However, the price below the VWAP and order flow shows that so far sell orders outnumber buy orders. Therefore, due to the mixed signals, the volatility in the short term will be vital for technical analysts. For example, if the price falls to $3,026, 65% of the retracement has regained downward momentum potentially indicating a downward trend in the short term. Alternatively, at $3,027.90 the instrument will form a bearish breakout which again potentially indicates downward momentum.


However, if the price increases above $3,034.17, a bullish breakout would have formed and the price will be again trading above the main Moving Average.


Key Takeaway Points:
1. Gold prices surged to an all-time high before dropping, possibly due to overbought concerns.
2. Economic uncertainty and trade policies fuel demand for gold, bonds, and a declining stock market.
3. The Federal Reserve acknowledges economic slowdown risks but remains reactive rather than proactive.
4. The US plans tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, contributing to market volatility and economic concerns.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th April 2025.


Market Wrap-Up: Stocks Mixed as UnitedHealth and Nvidia Drag, While Netflix Surges.



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U.S. equity markets closed Thursday’s shortened session on a mixed note ahead of the Good Friday holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 1.33%, pressured by a 22% plunge in UnitedHealth Group after it cut its earnings forecast. The Nasdaq Composite also dipped 0.13%, led lower by a 2.9% drop in Nvidia, which continues to struggle amid chip export restrictions to China.


In contrast, the S&P 500 managed a modest gain of 0.13%, supported by strength in energy stocks and a surprise earnings beat from Netflix. The streaming giant jumped in after-hours trading, driven by stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings, higher subscription prices, and robust ad revenue growth.


On the technical front, Netflix’s RSI has rebounded off the 50 level—historically a reliable signal for renewed bullish momentum. Resistance now sits at $1,065 and $1,300, while support is seen near $821 and $697.


Meanwhile, Treasury yields rose, erasing most of Wednesday’s gains. The 10-year yield climbed 4.8 basis points to 4.325%, and the 2-year yield rose to 3.785%, reflecting investor uncertainty and fading hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts.





Political Pressure and Tariff Concerns Stir Volatility


Markets also digested sharp political commentary that rattled confidence. Former President Donald Trump made headlines after attacking Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, stating that his ‘termination cannot come soon enough.’ While Powell remains firmly in position, the remarks reignited fears over central bank independence—a cornerstone of monetary policy stability.


Additionally, tariff tensions resurfaced as the former president hinted at a more protectionist trade stance. With global supply chains still vulnerable, investors grew wary of renewed U.S.-China trade friction—especially in the semiconductor and tech sectors, where Nvidia and TSMC remain key players.


Asia Rallies in Holiday-Thinned Trading as TSMC Meets Expectations


* Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.6% to close at 34,583.29.
* South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.3% to 2,478.39.
* Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.8% after TSMC met forecasts and offered cautious optimism despite ongoing chip export risks.
* China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.3% to 3,272.09 amid continued weakness in domestic demand.
Trading volumes remained thin across Asia ahead of the Easter holiday, with several regional exchanges closed.


Global Policy Moves: ECB Cuts Rates, Mixed U.S. Data Keeps Traders Guessing


In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected interest rate cut, yet investor reaction was subdued. The CAC 40 dropped 0.6% and Germany’s DAX declined 0.5%, reflecting concern that rate reductions may be arriving too late to stimulate faltering growth.


Back in the U.S., economic data sent mixed signals. Weekly jobless claims fell more than anticipated, highlighting ongoing labour market strength. However, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index contracted unexpectedly, showing continued weakness in factory output.


Combined, these updates reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may remain on hold longer than investors had hoped, especially amid sticky inflation and political pushback.


Dollar Holds Ground as Bond Yields Rise and Gold Retreats from Record Highs


In the currency markets, the US Dollar Index remained steady near 99.44, posting a third consecutive close below the psychological 100 level. The greenback traded in a narrow range between 99.231 and 99.746. Meanwhile, the dollar eased slightly to 132.42 yen and the euro ticked up to $1.1373, maintaining its recent strength.





Gold prices, which touched record highs earlier in the week, slipped 0.49% to close at $3,326.85 per ounce after hitting $3,343.12 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded sharply:


* WTI crude surged 3.5% to $64.68 a barrel.
* Brent crude rose to $67.96.


The rally in energy was supported by bargain-hunting and concerns over global supply risks. Markets remained closed Friday in observance of Good Friday, pausing further moves in commodities and bonds.


Final Takeaway: Markets Enter Holiday Pause with Unresolved Risks


As the markets head into a long weekend, investor sentiment remains cautious. Strong earnings from companies like Netflix offer moments of optimism, but persistent concerns around tariff policy, Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh heavily on risk appetite.


With bond yields creeping higher and volatility likely to return next week, traders should stay nimble and watch for cues from earnings reports, Fed speakers, and any developments on the trade or political front.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 12th May 2025.


NASDAQ Gains Nearly 4% as US-China Agree to Lower Tariffs.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The NASDAQ soars higher as the US and China finally get on the way and show signs of ‘substantial progress’. Thanks to the positive tone and recent agreements with other partners, the market is clearly leaning toward a risk-on sentiment. The NASDAQ rises to a 2-month high, but can the index rise to previous highs?


US-China Trade Negotiations - What We Know So Far!


Currently, the level of tariffs on Chinese goods is 145%, which, in other words, will bring imports to the US to a halt. In Trump’s recent press conference, he said he believes tariffs should be lowered to 80%. However, most economists believe the US will aim to bring them down to 55-60%.


On Sunday night, trade negotiations in Geneva made ‘substantial progress;’ toward easing tariffs, according to both parties. At that time, the ‘details’ remained scarce, but purely on the positive sentiment, the NASDAQ is quickly reacting. Though this morning the Treasury Secretary and chief negotiator outlined what has been agreed. As part of a 90-day deal, China will lower the tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% and the US on China from 145% to 30%. On the positive side, the tariffs are significantly lower than previous expectations, but a slight negative is that the agreement is solely for 90 days.


Newly imposed tariffs drove the 6-week stock market crash in March–April, during which the NASDAQ dropped by 27%. Economists say that if the US, the EU and China sign a trade agreement, the economy will avoid a recession. At the moment, the price of the NASDAQ and most indices have positively reacted to the news.





Before the announcement was made, the NASDAQ was trading 2.10% higher than Friday’s closing price. This was purely due to the positive tone from Sunday. The NASDAQ rose a further 1.50% in the minutes after Scott Bessent’s trade announcement.


NASDAQ - Inflation and Earnings Report


The price movement of the NASDAQ will also depend on the upcoming economic releases and earnings data. In terms of Quarterly Earnings Reports, Applied Materials and Cisco Systems are due to announce their reports on Wednesday and Thursday. The two companies hold a weight of 2.42% and are known to create moderate volatility. Both companies have beaten their earnings expectations over the past 12 months, and both stocks have risen in the past week. However, it's also important to note that Cisco Systems is the most influential of the two.


Nevertheless, traders should note that the Consumer Price Index (inflation) report can overshadow the earnings reports. The consumer inflation is due tomorrow afternoon, and the producer inflation on Thursday. Analysts expect the consumer inflation to remain at 2.4%, which remains relatively close to the Fed’s target of 2.00%. If inflation reads as per expectations, the NASDAQ may potentially react positively. A lower inflation reading will also support the NASDAQ, however, if inflation rises above 2.4%, the reading may trigger inflation concerns related to tariffs.


NASDAQ - Technical Analysis


On the 2-Hour timeframe, the NASDAQ continues to honour the trend-line and in the short-term the index shows significant bullish momentum. Currently, the price movement is not showing any indications of downward price movement or divergence patterns. However, the only concern for short-term traders is a retracement due to the price being overbought on most oscillators. Currently, bullish price action holds strong.


Key Takeaway Points:


* US-China Trade: Positive developments in tariff talks have pushed the NASDAQ to a 2-month high, signaling strong risk-on sentiment.
* Trade Deal Reached: Both countries agreed to lower tariffs significantly for 90 days, sparking a strong market reaction. The NASDAQ trades almost 4% higher.
* Inflation and Earnings: Upcoming CPI data and earnings reports from Applied Materials and Cisco may drive further NASDAQ movement.
* Technical Outlook Remains Bullish: NASDAQ shows strong upward momentum with no immediate bearish signals, though overbought conditions could prompt a short-term pullback.





A second catalyst came from Coinbase, which announced a $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit, a major crypto derivatives platform. The news bolstered sector sentiment and contributed to Bitcoin’s 5% intraday gain, with the digital asset peaking at $102,147 by late afternoon ET.


The recovery follows a sharp decline to $75,000 in early April, triggered by Trump's aggressive tariff declaration on ‘Liberation Day.’ Since then, Bitcoin has rebounded on renewed optimism, with its performance echoing the strong correlation it shares with US tech stocks and broader risk assets.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 3rd June 2025.


Global Markets Under Pressure: Japanese Outflows, China’s Slump, and Trade War Fallout Shake Sentiment.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Global markets are facing renewed uncertainty as a combination of trade tensions, weak economic data, and policy recalibrations fuel volatility across equities, currencies, and bonds.


Japan: Historic Fund Outflows and Rebalancing Pressures


Japanese equity funds witnessed their largest weekly outflows in nearly 18 years, with $7.49 billion pulled in the week to May 28, according to LSEG Lipper data. This marked the heaviest withdrawal since July 2007.


Analysts attribute the exodus to profit-taking after April’s market dip and May’s rebound, along with cautious sentiment around forward earnings. Domestic investors were the primary drivers, accounting for $7.55 billion of the outflows, while foreign funds saw a modest $59 million in inflows.


Daisuke Motori of Morningstar Japan noted this pattern of ‘buying the dip and selling the rally’ has repeated in recent months. Rebalancing by large institutional investors such as pension funds and life insurers likely added to the sell-off.


A strengthening yen—up 10% against the dollar year-to-date—is also clouding Japan’s export outlook. LSEG data shows analysts have downgraded forward 12-month earnings forecasts by 1.8% in the past 30 days.


Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to tapering its bond-buying and cautiously normalizing policy, even as uncertainty looms large. While inflation reached 4.6% in April, underlying inflation remains below the BOJ’s 2% target. The next rate-setting meeting on June 16–17 is expected to review the bond tapering plan extending into fiscal 2026.


Ueda also flagged concerns about US tariffs and their impact on Japan’s economy, warning of potential hits to exports, corporate profits, and wage negotiations heading into winter.


Australia: Tariff Warnings and Rate Cuts


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is also on high alert. Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned that higher US tariffs could depress global trade, investment, and employment.


While the precise effects remain unclear due to policy unpredictability, Hunter confirmed that these downside risks were a key factor in the RBA’s recent rate cut to a two-year low of 3.85%. The central bank remains open to further easing, particularly if global trade deteriorates.


Interestingly, the RBA sees the tariff pressure as disinflationary for Australia, given cheaper imported goods as Chinese suppliers redirect exports. Headline inflation remained at 2.4% in Q1, with core inflation easing back into the target band for the first time since 2021.


China: Manufacturing Slumps Despite Tariff Truce


In China, the manufacturing sector endured its steepest decline since September 2022, according to the Caixin/S&P Global PMI, which fell to 48.3 in May, well below the 50 threshold signalling contraction.


The reading sharply diverged from the official PMI and surprised analysts, suggesting that smaller and medium-sized exporters, particularly in the private sector, are suffering disproportionately despite the recent US-China tariff truce.


Economists attributed the discrepancy to timing differences in data collection and methodology. Nonetheless, the Caixin results point to intensifying economic pressure, with falling export orders and production weighing on sentiment.


The trade war’s ripple effect extended to other Asian economies, with Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea all reporting declines in manufacturing output.





Currency Markets: Dollar Sinks on Trade War Woes


Currency markets reflected investor unease as the US dollar hit a six-week low on Tuesday amid signs of fragility in the US economy. The dollar index dropped to 98.58—its lowest level since late April—before partially rebounding.


Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank, said, 'Trade tensions are not really improving… we’ve seen the dollar getting hammered widely.’ The Aussie and Kiwi outperformed, with New Zealand’s dollar hitting a year-to-date high of $0.6054 before retreating.





The greenback weakened following a third straight month of US manufacturing contraction, while upcoming factory orders and jobs data may shed further light on the economic toll of ongoing tariff battles.


The euro briefly touched a six-week high of $1.1454 before retreating, while investors also await this week’s European Central Bank policy decision.


Adding further pressure, US tariffs on steel and aluminium are set to double to 50% this week, even as the Trump administration pushes for tougher trade negotiations globally.


The global economy is showing renewed signs of strain under the weight of trade uncertainty, export weakness, and policy recalibrations. While central banks across Japan, Australia, and China remain cautious, markets are increasingly sensitive to any signs of economic softness or policy missteps.


As the BOJ, ECB, and US data dominate the agenda in the coming days, traders will be watching closely for signs of stabilization—or deeper fragmentation—in an already fragile global landscape.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th June 2025.


Global Markets Rattled by Escalating Middle East Tensions and Oil Price Surge.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Global financial markets experienced heightened volatility so far today as escalating tensions between Israel and Iran spooked investors, pushing oil prices higher and sending mixed signals across equities, currencies, and bond markets.


Oil Prices Rise as Middle East Conflict Deepens


Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, building on Tuesday’s sharp 4% surge. US benchmark crude climbed to $75 per barrel. Investors are increasingly concerned that the conflict could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passageway for global crude exports. Although previous regional tensions have led to brief oil price spikes without long-term supply issues, the intensifying rhetoric this time is triggering stronger reactions.


Trump Issues Dire Warning to Iran


Investor fears were exacerbated after former President Donald Trump called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran, escalating tensions further. Within hours, Trump went from advocating a nuclear deal to demanding ‘UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,’ hinting at imminent US intervention. As geopolitical risks soared, demand for traditional safe havens such as the US dollar and Treasuries spiked.


Investors were also left disappointed by the lack of progress at the recent G7 summit in Canada. The group failed to make headway on trade issues, just weeks ahead of Trump’s July deadline for additional tariffs. Trump criticized both Japan and the EU for being ‘tough’ negotiators and for not offering satisfactory deals.


US Markets Close Lower; Asian Markets Mixed; Japan Shrugs Off Export Slump


Wall Street sank under the weight of surging oil prices and disappointing US retail sales data. The S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 5,982.72, the Dow dropped 0.7% to 42,215.80, and the Nasdaq slid 0.9% to 19,521.09. Weak consumer spending raised concerns that the backbone of the US economy might be faltering. Additionally, solar stocks took a hit after speculation that Congress may phase out clean energy tax credits. Enphase Energy dropped 24%, while First Solar lost 17.9%.


Asian equities painted a mixed picture. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% to 38,803.10 despite data showing an 11% drop in Japanese exports to the US, primarily due to tariffs on autos. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.2%, the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2%, and Australia's ASX 200 lost 0.2%. South Korea’s Kospi managed a 0.6% gain.


Fed Meeting in Focus; Minimal Forecast Adjustments Expected


The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting, with markets broadly expecting no rate changes. Forecast updates due Wednesday are likely to include modest GDP upgrades but little change to inflation and unemployment projections. The Fed’s previous dot plot suggested two rate cuts per year through mid-2027, and little deviation is expected in the June update.


Dollar Finds Footing Amid Global Jitters


The US dollar regained its safe-haven appeal, rebounding nearly 1% against the yen, Swiss franc, and euro since late last week. While structural challenges tied to Trump’s trade policies have weighed on the greenback in 2025, investors continue to favour the dollar in times of global stress. The dollar edged down 0.2% to 144.90 yen on Wednesday, while the euro ticked up 0.2% to $1.150, and the British pound strengthened to $1.346 following softer-than-expected UK inflation data.


Outlook: Risk Sentiment Hinges on Geopolitics and Fed Clarity


Markets remain on edge as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show no sign of abating. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the Fed’s policy statement and projections for clues on the central bank’s outlook. As uncertainty swirls, volatility is expected to persist across commodities, currencies, and equities in the short term.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.