HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 04th March 2025.


Tariffs and OPEC+ Drive Oil Prices Lower.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Crude Oil prices fell 0.70% on Tuesday declining closer to the asset’s main support level. OPEC’s latest announcement has been one of the main drivers of lower prices. OPEC, which produces 40% of the world’s Crude Oil, surprisingly has increased oil production. However, other economic factors are also triggering a lower demand.


OPEC Increases Supply Pressuring Prices


OPEC+ confirms it will increase production and market output in 2025 despite prices declining for six consecutive weeks. The move from OPEC is primarily driven by pressure from the US administration to not purposely look to lower production in order to keep prices high.


OPEC+ will boost oil production by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, causing crude prices to drop. The move has become possible with Russia expecting the Ukraine-Russia conflict to end in 2025 and the US’s more favourable approach towards Russia and Saudi Arabia. This marks the first of several monthly increases, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026 after a two-year pause.


The higher output will increase supply and can significantly change the balance between supply and demand. As a result, Crude Oil prices have fallen, particularly as economic data globally has taken a hit over the past month. Over the past six weeks, Crude Oil prices have fallen by more than 10%. However, the move by OPEC is related solely to the supply within the market. Simultaneously, trade wars are also worrying traders about how demand may change in the upcoming months.





US Turn Up The Heat on Trade Wars


The US tariffs on Mexico and Canada are now officially active, taking the level of tariffs to its highest level since the 1980s. President Trump has also advised the US to add a further 10% tariff on China in addition to the 10% announced in January. As a result, experts believe the global economy is likely to witness shockwaves in the short to medium term. This can also be seen in the stock market which has fallen 5% over the past 3 weeks.


The economic slowdown is catching up with rising inflation and tariffs which are put into place. Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next moves is growing with some economists advising the Fed may be pressured into taking earlier. In response to the additional tariffs, China is vowing to take countermeasures to protect its producers. Warren Buffett called the tariffs an extra tax on people with little economic benefit.


Weaker economic activity and a lower risk appetite within the market are known to pressure prices significantly. During the previous Trump administration and ‘trade tariff policy’ the price of Crude oil fell 13%.


Crude Oil - Technical Analysis


The price of Crude Oil in the longer term is obtaining indication the price may decline. On a monthly chart, the price forms a clear descending triangle which is known to hold a bearish bias. On the 2-hour chart, the price is also trading below the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average, below the VWAP and below the neutral areas of most oscillators. For this reason, momentum is indicating downward price movement.


However, the main concern for bearish traders is the support level which is sitting at $66.70 per barrel. The support level is currently 1.50% points away from the current price. In order for sell signals to materialise in the short term, traders will be monitoring if the price can break below $67.69.


[imghttps://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=images/USOILDaily_Internal_6836b26f5677492bbaad085ce4b.or iginal.png[/img]


Key Takeaway Points:


* OPEC+ plans to boost production in 2025, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026, pushing crude prices lower.
* The US imposes record-high tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, raising concerns about global economic stability and market declines. Crude Oil prices decline as a result.
* Rising tariffs and inflation add uncertainty, with economists speculating the Fed may act sooner than expected.
* Technical analysis shows a bearish trend, but the price of Crude Oil is also nearing the key support levels at $66.70 per barrel.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 19th March 2025.


Stock Markets Mixed as Investors Await US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Asian stock markets showed mixed performance on Wednesday as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Global markets remain on edge, with traders looking for guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on future monetary policy.


US stock futures edged higher, while oil prices declined for a second consecutive session.


Yen Weakens as Bank of Japan Holds Rates Steady


The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, signalling concerns over global trade tensions while acknowledging domestic conditions that support further hikes. The central bank added trade policies to its risk outlook, reflecting heightened uncertainty as President Trump's tariff threats loom.


Despite strong wage growth and inflation at 4%, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda appears cautious, suggesting the next rate hike may follow a six-month pace—possibly in June or July. Meanwhile, Japan’s latest trade data showed a surplus in February, with exports rising over 11%. The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, in line with expectations. Similarly, the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to maintain its current rate stance.


The Japanese Yen continued its decline against the US dollar after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) opted to keep its policy interest rate unchanged, citing ongoing global trade concerns and domestic economic trends, including rising wages and inflation. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cut rates starting in September, keeping the rate gap with Japan-wide.





The Yen slipped as much as 0.4% to 150 per dollar, extending losses from last week’s five-month high. The decision was widely expected, as all economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated that the BOJ would maintain its current policy stance.


In its latest statement, the BOJ highlighted trade policies and global economic conditions as key risks to its outlook. This marks a shift from previous statements, reflecting heightened uncertainty in global markets. Over the past year, Japan’s central bank has raised interest rates three times since ending its negative interest rate policy, the last of its kind worldwide.


Key Focus: US Federal Reserve’s Rate Decision


All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and Powell’s press conference, where investors hope to gain insight into future rate moves. The dot plot forecast is expected to align with December’s projections, suggesting two 25-basis-point rate cuts per year through mid-2027. Analysts anticipate rate reductions in June and December 2025, though Powell is likely to emphasize a measured approach toward the 2% inflation target.


US stock markets saw losses across major indices:


*S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 5,614.66.
*The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.6% to 41,581.31.
*Nasdaq Composite slid 1.7% to 17,504.12.


Tech Stocks Under Pressure


Tesla dropped 5.3%, weighed down by slowing electric vehicle (EV) sales and rising competition. China’s BYD unveiled an ultra-fast charging system, intensifying pressure on Tesla’s market dominance.


Meanwhile, Alphabet (Google's parent company) lost 2.2% after announcing a $32 billion acquisition of cybersecurity firm Wiz, its largest-ever deal, aimed at strengthening cloud computing and AI capabilities.


The broader technology sector continued to struggle amid concerns over overvaluation and trade tensions.


*Nvidia dropped 3.3%, even as it hosted its "AI Woodstock" event.
*Super Micro Computer tumbled 9.6%.
*Palantir Technologies lost 4%.


Investors remain cautious about former President Donald Trump’s trade policies, which could impact US economic growth. Tariff uncertainty adds pressure on the Federal Reserve, as lower interest rates encourage borrowing but could also fuel inflation concerns.


Oil Prices Decline as Market Awaits Fed Decision


Oil prices slipped for a second straight session, pressured by rising US crude inventories and persistent concerns over global trade tensions.


*Brent crude dropped 0.7%, trading near $70 per barrel.
*West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovered around $66 per barrel.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 4.6 million barrel build in US crude stockpiles last week, although inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, declined. Official EIA data is due later Wednesday.


Market sentiment remains fragile as investors assess OPEC+ supply increases and weak demand in China, compounding concerns over a potential economic slowdown. Geopolitical tensions remain in focus, particularly in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Biden administration is closely monitoring Iranian involvement in Houthi attacks, while Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected US calls for a ceasefire, instead limiting strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th April 2025.


Global Markets Rattled by Tariffs and Bond Sell-Off as Volatility Surges.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Markets around the globe were hit hard on Wednesday, as sweeping US tariffs took effect and fears of a global economic slowdown intensified. From bond markets to equities, investors were left scrambling amid heightened uncertainty and growing recession risks. Volatility levels surged as investors responded to rising yields, falling oil prices, and a weakening yuan. Government bond yields surged, treasuries were hit hard, equities tumbled, and oil hit fresh multi-year lows as investors scrambled to assess the impact of sweeping trade measures.


Tariff Uncertainty Sparks Global Sell-Off


Markets were on edge as the White House confirmed a 104% tax targeting Chinese imports, effective at midnight. While the US administration indicated openness to negotiations with over 70 nations, China has yet to engage. Instead, Beijing vowed to ‘fight to the end’ and warned it has ample tools to offset any external shocks.


In a bold move, China allowed the offshore yuan to weaken to a record low of 7.4153 per dollar, signalling its willingness to absorb external shocks. Goldman Sachs warned that China might retaliate by selling US assets, including Treasuries, potentially exacerbating the sell-off.





Bond Market Under Siege as Yields Surge


Investors dumped long-duration US government bonds in droves, driving yields to multi-year highs. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly soared above 5% the highest level since 1998, while the 10-year hit 4.51% before easing back to 4.42%. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield fell on haven demand and bets for future rate cuts, steepening the curve sharply. Bond yields move inversely to prices. Stock markets came under renewed pressure.


The curve between 2s and 10s spiked by 14 basis points to 55 bps. This aggressive repricing reflected deepening fears of inflation, slower growth, and rising uncertainty over the Fed's policy path. The sharp rise in long-dated yields caused a steepening in the yield curve across Europe, with bond prices falling as investors priced in higher inflation and slower global growth.


RBNZ Cuts Rates, Signals Further Easing


New Zealand’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, marking the fifth consecutive easing. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cited mounting global trade risks and downside pressures on both growth and inflation.


‘The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for economic activity,’ said the RBNZ. ‘These developments create downside risks... The Committee has scope to lower the OCR further as appropriate.’Markets now expect rates to fall below the 3% floor previously signalled by the central bank.


Global Repercussions: Stocks and Currencies Hit


In Europe, German bonds opened lower, and a steepening yield curve emerged as longer-term yields rose sharply. Futures tracking the Stoxx Europe 600 slumped 2.9%, mirroring weakness in US and Asian equity markets.


Japanese stocks fell sharply, with the Topix dropping 3.6%, while the yen settled near ¥145 per dollar. Analysts described earlier gains as a ‘head fake,’ noting that ‘fast money’ had resumed bearish bets amid worsening trade tensions.


Chinese equities managed to rebound, driven by strength in technology and chip stocks. The CSI 300 index swung from a 1.7% decline to close up 0.3%, led by SMIC (+6%) and Foxconn Industrial Internet.


Wall Street’s major indices plunged before partially trimming losses late in the session. The S&P 500 closed down 1.57%, the Nasdaq tumbled 2.15%, and the Dow slipped 0.84%. Earlier gains of over 4% were quickly reversed as investors grew wary of systemic risks.


This marked the fourth consecutive session with a trading range exceeding 5%, a rare occurrence seen only during periods of extreme stress like March 2020, October 1987, and the 2008 financial crisis.


The VIX volatility index jumped 10.6% to 52.01, reflecting the high level of investor anxiety.





Oil Crashes to Pandemic Lows, Gold Recovers
Oil markets extended their dramatic decline as traders braced for weaker global demand. Brent crude dropped 4.1% to $60.26—a four-year low—while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $56.30. Gold, meanwhile, briefly dipped but managed to rebound above $3040 per ounce.


USDIndex Dips, Currency Volatility Rises
The US Dollar Index (DXY) swung throughout the session, at 102.25—down from a session high of 103.441. Currency markets were jittery amid safe-haven flows and shifting interest rate expectations.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 08th May 2025.


Markets Rally as Fed Holds Rates, Trump Teases Major Trade Deal With UK.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


US stocks surged midweek as investors reacted to a flurry of market-moving developments—from Federal Reserve policy decisions and trade deal speculation to AI regulations and geopolitical tensions.


Federal Reserve Holds Rates Amid Political Pressure


Despite mounting pressure from former President Donald Trump to lower interest rates ahead of a potential economic slowdown, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range. This decision follows a full percentage point cut made in late 2024.


‘Uncertainty’ remains the name of the game for the FOMC as well as the markets. Though the word was used only once in the statement, Chair Powell used it, or variations of it, many times in his presser, ultimately saying his gut tells him ‘uncertainty’ over the economy's path is extremely elevated.


Powell warned of ongoing risks from global trade tensions and tariffs, stating, ‘If sustained, large increases in tariffs could lead to higher inflation, slower growth, and increased unemployment.’ He acknowledged that the Fed remains vigilant, especially as uncertainties around international trade persist.


The major takeaway is that the Fed is firmly on the sidelines monitoring the many tariff-related unknowns regarding their ‘scale, scope, timing, and persistence’ and their impacts on the economy. The Fed is in no hurry and awaits clear evidence to dictate the appropriate policy response.


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s independence on Wednesday, dismissing political influence from the White House. Addressing reporters, Powell emphasised, ‘President Trump doesn’t affect our doing our job at all,’ and reiterated that he has never—and will never—request a meeting with any US president.





Trump Sparks Market Rally With UK Trade Deal Tease


Equity markets jumped late Wednesday after Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the US had secured a ‘MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY.’ Sources familiar with the matter indicated the United Kingdom is expected to be named as the trade partner during a scheduled White House press conference Thursday morning.


US stock futures surged on the news:


* Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.6%
* S&P 500 futures gained 0.7%
* Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1%
* Gold is down 0.7%, sliding to $3,336 — edging closer to the crucial 100-hour moving average at $3,330.


Expectations for a broader US-UK economic agreement added to investor optimism, alongside plans for high-level trade talks between the US and China in Switzerland. However, Trump’s statement that tariffs on Chinese imports would remain in place ahead of the negotiations tempered some enthusiasm.


Asian Markets and Geopolitical Concerns


The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below the 100 mark, closing at 99.809 after touching a high of 100.030 and a low of 99.464. The dollar weakened against most G10 currencies and lost ground to several Asian counterparts as rate differentials failed to offer support.


Nevertheless, stronger US economic data—including accelerated activity among US service providers—helped the dollar edge higher during the session, easing a rapid appreciation in Asian currencies spurred by optimism over potential trade agreements.


Asia Forex Volatility Increases Amid Trade Hopes


Asian stock markets followed the US momentum on Thursday:


* Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.2%
* Australia’s ASX 200 increased 0.2%
* South Korea’s Kospi added 0.3%
* Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 0.8%
* Shanghai Composite advanced 0.8%


However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan, introduced fresh risks. Pakistan has vowed retaliation for missile strikes it says were carried out by India, resulting in over 30 civilian deaths in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Punjab. The situation has drawn international concern over the potential for wider instability in the region.


Nvidia, AMD Surge as AI Export Rules Get Revamped


Tech stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, also benefited from a regulatory shift. Nvidia (NVDA) closed up 3% following reports that the Trump administration will repeal AI chip export restrictions imposed by the Biden administration.


The US Commerce Department confirmed the policy reversal, describing the previous rules as ‘overly bureaucratic’ and vowing to implement a streamlined framework that ‘unleashes American innovation.’


Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also climbed nearly 1.8% on the news, though both chipmakers saw their shares ease slightly in after-hours trading.


The Walt Disney Co. led the earnings-driven rally, soaring 10.8% after beating profit forecasts, raising guidance, and reporting over one million new streaming subscribers.


BoE Expected to Cut Today


The BoE is widely expected to lower the Bank Rate by another 25 bp to 4.25% on May 8. U.K. inflation is still expected to pick up again before retreating, but lower oil prices and a stronger pound will likely prompt the BoE to lower inflation forecasts with the updated Monetary Policy Report, which will pave the way for lower rates. And with growth risks intensifying thanks to US tariff jitters and the impact of the autumn budget, the chances of back-to-back cuts are rising, especially as U.K. rates remain relatively high.


Stagflation risks continue to linger, but BoE head Bailey warned last week that a trade war would hurt the U.K. economy, despite the fact that it is facing lower ‘reciprocal’ tariffs than others. Bailey stressed that ‘it is not just the relationship between the US and the UK, it is the relationship between the US, the U.K. and the rest of the world that matters, because the UK is such an open economy.’ ‘We have to take very seriously the risk to growth’, Bailey warned, adding that ‘fragmenting the world economy will be bad for growth.’


Outlook: Economic Growth Meets Policy Uncertainty


Despite global uncertainties, the Fed noted that the US economy continues to grow at a ‘solid pace.’ However, Powell cautioned that persistent tariff threats and rising inflation could put the central bank in a precarious position,risking a scenario of stagflation, where economic stagnation coincides with rising prices.


With trade negotiations looming, rate cuts paused, and geopolitical risks rising, investors will be closely monitoring headlines for clues on the next moves in markets and monetary policy.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 30th May 2025.


ECB Rate Cut Expectations: Will June Deliver Another 25 bp Cut?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to announce another 25 basis point (bp) interest rate cut at its upcoming June policy meeting. Despite dovish expectations, recent statements from hawkish members and rising geopolitical uncertainties suggest that the path toward additional monetary policy easing may not be as straightforward as before.


Mixed Signals: Schnabel’s Call for Caution vs Dovish Momentum


While Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel voiced support for keeping rates unchanged, noting that now is the time for a ‘steady hand,’ the overall tone within the ECB Governing Council has recently leaned dovish. Preliminary Eurozone inflation data and updated projections could strengthen the case made by members like François Villeroy de Galhau for another cut.


June Outlook: Pause vs 25 bp Cut


At the last meeting, the ECB delivered a widely anticipated 25 bp cut. However, the April meeting minutes revealed a split into three camps:


* One group initially preferred to pause but agreed to front-load a June cut due to rising trade tensions from Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff threats.
* Another faction argued for a larger 50 bp cut, indicating deeper concern over growth risks.
* A third group favoured more cautious, data-dependent easing.


Heading into the June ECB decision, the debate has narrowed to two options:


* A pause to assess incoming data
* A 25 bp rate cut to sustain momentum


Schnabel and Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann have spoken in favour of pausing, arguing that further cuts may be ineffective or even risky for the Eurozone economy.


Data & Tariff Tensions: A New Source of Risk


Since Schnabel’s remarks, Trump has escalated threats of a 50 bp tariff on EU imports. Though temporarily suspended for talks, the uncertainty weighs on sentiment. Unlike the market volatility after the ‘Liberation Day’ headlines, current reactions have been more subdued, making a preemptive rate cut less justifiable.


Even ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, typically dovish, warned against both over-tightening and over-easing. He emphasized the need for data-driven decisions, saying that further cuts are possible if inflation softens, but ‘no one is talking about dramatic rate cuts.’


Preliminary May inflation data, especially in services, is expected to show deceleration—but this may reflect seasonal adjustments. Meanwhile, import prices continue to fall, though disinflation from a stronger euro (EUR) may have peaked.


Trump’s recent trade threats dampen hopes for a negotiated deal. EU retaliation, if pursued, could raise imported goods prices and offset currency-related disinflation, adding complexity to the ECB’s policy decisions.


The ECB’s inflation expectations survey showed a rise in 1-year inflation expectations, though long-term views remain stable. Business confidence data has been mixed, with front-loaded exports earlier this year potentially leading to weaker activity in Q2.


Germany’s new Chancellor's investment push in infrastructure and defence—what Holzmann called a ‘fiscal shock’—could provide economic support in the medium term. While such measures take time to impact GDP, they add another layer to the ECB’s policy calculus.


Is the ECB Running Out of Room to Cut?


With rising internal opposition and geopolitical headwinds, the ECB's path to additional interest rate cuts appears increasingly narrow. If a cut is delivered next week, the central bank may pause in July unless further economic shocks emerge. Alternatively, a June pause could leave the door open for easing in July. As Lane stated, the ECB must remain flexible, but the hurdles to further rate cuts are clearly rising.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 13th June 2025.


Israel Attacks Iran in An Overnight Strike: Oil Rises 13%!



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Israel launched attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, military leadership and key Iranian scientists according to reports. The attack took place overnight and involved more than 200 Israeli fighter jets which bombed more than 100 targets. The US has made a statement publicly advising the country was not involved. In addition to this, other key partners such as the UK and France are pushing for de-escalation. How is the market reacting so far?


Crude Oil Prices Jump 13%


The asset which is seeing the most volatility is understandably Crude Oil as Iran is the 7th highest producer of Crude Oil after Iraq. Currently, the price of Crude Oil is trading 5.00% higher, but earlier in the day it was 13% higher. Crude Oil rose to a high of $77.64 per barrel and to its highest price since January.


Due to extremely high volatility in a short period, it is understandable that the asset became oversold triggering a decline in the past 3 hours. Currently, the bearish momentum continues to remain the driving force in the short term. The 200-period SMA continues to act as a trend-line meaning the price may continue to decline to $70.50 before finding support. However, this would also depend on the upcoming developments.


According to reports, the Israeli army not only attacked nuclear facilities, military leadership and key Iranian scientists, but also the country’s ability to instantly retaliate. As a result, Iran was limited to using drones to retaliate. According to army experts, drones can travel long distances and cause significant damage, but they travel extremely slowly. The Israeli government is advising they are currently shooting down drones over Jordan and Syria.



Crude Oil Daily Chart


If the conflict was to escalate, the price of Oil could regain bullish momentum as it would trigger a fear of supply chain disruptions and lower production levels.


SNP500 - Developments Trigger Low Risk Appetite!


The SNP500 fell as much as 1.98% before retracing higher. Currently, the SNP500 is trading 1.20% lower and the NASDAQ 1.33%. The downward price movement is being triggered by 2 factors. The first is the conflict between Israel and Iran prompting a lower risk appetite. The second is the significantly higher oil prices which can apply upward pressure on inflation.


The future price movements of the SNP500 and stock market in general will depend on how the current situation escalates. If the two countries escalate, the price of Oil may continue to rise while the stock market potentially could take a larger hit. If downward pressure increases, a key support level for the index could be seen at $5,791.24. This level may act as a target for individuals looking to speculate downward momentum in the medium-term.


Traders should note that even though the index is yet to witness significant lasting volatility, most risk indicators point to a ‘risk off’ sentiment. For example, the VIX Index currently trades 9% higher.


Gold - Safe Haven Asset Witness Increased Demand!


The price of Gold has not only risen due to the Israeli strikes on Iran, but has been increasing in value for 3 consecutive days. Originally, lower inflation data drove the upward price movement, prompting a weaker US Dollar. Gold is inversely correlated with the US Dollar. However, now the commodity’s safe haven status is coming into play as institutions look to lower the risk of their portfolios.


Key Takeaway Points:


* Oil prices spiked 13% due to the Israeli strikes, reaching $77.64, with potential decline to $70.50 if bearish momentum continues.
* The SNP500 fell 1.98% as the conflict escalated, and rising oil prices raised inflation concerns.
* Gold has been increasing for the last three days, driven by the weaker US Dollar and its safe-haven appeal amid the crisis.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 7th July 2025.


Oil Prices Drop But Bullish Potential Remains!



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


OPEC members confirm they will increase oil production and output in July and August. As a result, the price of Oil fell 1.40% on Monday, but almost regains its previous losses. According to reports, the higher output is an attempt by OPEC members to regain market share. Oil has largely been trading sideways since June 24th after the 16% decline. What’s next for Crude Oil prices?

US Oil / Crude Oil Chart


OPEC and New Oil Output!


Members of OPEC have seen tensions rise as certain members have been producing more oil than others. As a result, the main topic for discussion during yesterday’s meeting was an increase across all members. This development was the main reason for the day’s bearish price gap.


As Bloomberg reports, Riyadh is trying to win back lost market share by asking to continue the production quota adjustment of 411,000 barrels per day in August, and possibly in the months thereafter. Saudi Aramco has already lowered the price of Arab Light crude for Asian buyers by $0.20 in July. At the same time, eight OPEC+ countries, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman, are slowly lifting their voluntary production cuts, raising output by another 386,000 barrels per day.


Morgan Stanley analysts expect Brent Crude to fall to around $60.20 and Crude Oil to $58.80, with a supply surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026.


Potential For Regained Bullish Momentum


Regardless of the bearish price gap, traders should note that bullish momentum is being regained. According to many economists, the potential for higher oil prices continues to linger at the back of traders’ minds despite the US actively looking to bring prices lower. This includes stronger-than-expected economic data, particularly from the employment sector.


The US latest employment report came as a shock to investors, and the country’s unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since March and significantly lower than the market’s projections. In addition to this, the NFP Employment Change read 35,000 higher than expectations. Higher economic and employment data can justify a higher oil output and keep prices high.


On the other hand, the economy and its outlook will significantly depend on global trade policy. Currently, investors look for confirmation on which countries will see higher tariffs imposed. The current deadline is July 9th. If the policy change triggers a bearish market, the price of Oil is likely to fall.


Lastly, another factor which investors are contemplating is the ability of Iran to enrich and produce nuclear weapons. According to the Pentagon, the recent attacks on Iran set back the nuclear program by 6-12 months. Also, most experts believe the US, Israel and Iran will not be able to make an agreement on the country’s nuclear policy. As a result, is the conflict simply going to resume at a later point? If so, the geo-political tensions could push prices higher as they did in June 2025.


Key Takeaway Points:


* OPEC+ is increasing oil output in July and August to regain market share, leading to an initial dip in prices.
* Despite the output increase, a potential for bullish momentum remains due to stronger-than-expected data, especially in the US employment sector.
* Upcoming global trade policy changes (July 9th deadline) could trigger a bearish market and cause oil prices to fall if new tariffs are imposed.
* Ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program could push oil prices higher again if conflict resumes.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.