HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 18th February 2025.


UK Unemployment Rate Falls and The Pound Spikes Upwards.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The British Pound spikes upwards against all currencies as the UK releases its employment data. However, the latest employment data release does not give long-term confidence as the UK continues to see a higher possibility of economic stagnation in 2025. Can the GBP maintain momentum?


UK Releases Latest Employment Data!


The UK employment data had its positive and negative points. The Monthly Unemployment Claims rose 22,000 which is at a 3 month high, and higher than analysts’ previous expectations. This is known to be negative for the British Pound. However, the UK also saw some positive data which investors are clinging onto. The UK Unemployment Rate fell for the first time since October 2024.


The UK Unemployment Rate, to the surprise of analysts, fell from 4.5% to 4.4%. Lastly, the Average UK Salaries Index rose to 6.00%, the highest in 13 months and higher than previous expectations. This is the main reason why the GBP is increasing in value. That said, the Bank of England and economists continue to expect the UK to witness stagnation in 2025.





The British Pound


The British Pound is now one of the best-performing currencies of the day so far. The US Dollar and Japanese Yen are also strongly increasing in value. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mr Bailey, is due to speak at 09:30 GMT and is likely to comment on the latest employment data.


Previously, Bailey described the UK’s economic growth as “static,” despite stronger-than-expected Q4 2024 data—0.1% growth instead of the forecasted –0.1% quarterly and 1.4% annually versus the expected 1.1%. Meanwhile, the BoE revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 0.75% from 1.0% in November. Traders are also hoping Governor Bailey will comment on the possible future rate cuts.


Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), the UK will release January inflation data. Analysts expect the annual CPI to rise from 2.5% to 2.8%, while monthly prices may drop by 0.3% after a similar increase in December. The Core CPI is projected to climb from 3.2% to 3.6%.


When evaluating the GBP Index, the GBP is currently trading 0.95% higher in 2025. However, the upward price movement is largely due to last week’s Gross Domestic Product which beat expectations. The performance of the GBP will also depend on whether the US imposes tariffs. Additionally, pressure on the UK to increase defence spending could further strain the country's already scrutinized budget.


GBPUSD - Technical Analysis and Price Condition


The GBPUSD is trading above the main moving averages on the 2-hour timeframe and is trading high on most oscillators. These factors indicate that the buyers are currently controlling momentum, but traders are concerned about two factors.


The first is that the GBPUSD is struggling to break above the 1.26300 level and the fact that both the USD and GBP is simultaneously increasing in value. As both currencies are increasing in value, technical analysts view the price action as conflicting. On the 5-minute chart, the GBPUSD is trading at the 200-bar average price movement indicating a neutral signal. This also follows the concerns of traders that the price action is conflicting.





If the price breaks above 1.25918, the GBPUSD may witness sell signals materialize. However, if the price breaks above 1.26200, buy signals may arise which will also be in line with the indications on the 2-hour timeframe.


Key Takeaway Points:


* GBP rises as the UK employment data lifts GBP, but stagnation concerns remain.
* UK Salaries hit a 13-month high, boosting the Pound.
* The Bank of England Governor, Mr Bailey may hint at future rate cuts and advises the UK will witness economic stagnation.
* The key risks for the GBP remain inflation data, US tariffs, and UK defence spending pressure.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.