HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 03rd February 2025.


What do Trump's Tariffs Mean for the Financial Trading Markets?


The announcement of the first Trump tariffs sends volatility through the roof. The market’s first reaction is to sell stocks and buy the US Dollar. The first countries to be hit by tariffs are Canada, Mexico and China. However, the US President also gave interesting indications on the government’s next moves.


SNP500 - Tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico Send Stocks Lower!


The SNP500 opens on a bearish price gap measuring 1.54% but trades 1.76% lower than Friday’s close. The decline is driven by a sharp drop in risk appetite from tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. The VIX, a risk sentiment indicator, is up over 8%, reflecting the fall in market confidence.


Today’s sharp decline is one of the strongest seen in 2025 so far, but up to now remains weaker than the 2.95% decline from January 27th. The previous decline was due to the global repercussions of Chinese AI companies gaining momentum. However, this recent decline indicates that today’s downward trend may still gain momentum when the European and US sessions open.


The only concern for traders is the price is trading close to the SNP500’s recent support level. The SNP500’s support level at $5,920 in the previous week triggered an upward correction, partially fueled by earnings data. Alphabet is due to release its quarterly earnings report tomorrow after market close and Amazon on Thursday. Therefore, traders should be cautious that while the downward risk remains great, the earnings data may prompt demand similar to the week before.


China has also made a statement advising they are currently working on a trade proposal with the US in order to avoid tariffs. If an announcement is made indicating an agreement with China, the SNP500 could potentially gain bullish momentum. However, no such announcement has yet been made.


The US 10-ear Bond Yields increase in value during the Asian session and the VIX index continues to rise as the European session edges closer. If bond yields and the VIX continue to increase throughout the day, the bearish bias is likely to strengthen. According to price action and price momentum indicators, the SNP500 is likely to witness sell signals at $5,924 and below.


Euro - The Day’s Worst Performing Currency!


The Euro is coming under pressure due to Trump’s latest interview as he was walking off Airforce One. President Donald Trump commented on the first tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, but also said that tariffs “will definitely happen with the European Union”. Whereas, with the UK he was less concrete in his response. With the UK Trump advised there will likely be tariffs but they “may be able to work” something out.


In terms of the European economy, December retail sales dropped 1.6% month-over-month (MoM) and slowed from 2.9% to 1.8% year-over-year (YoY). This reinforces the expectations of further interest rate adjustments by European Central Bank (ECB) officials. In the Eurozone’s largest economy, conditions for this shift are in place, as inflationary pressures ease and economic growth weakens due to sluggish demand and lower household activity.


Additionally, Bank of Finland head Olli Rehn and Bank of Estonia governor Madis Müller emphasized the priority of a dovish policy stance in his speech on Friday. The Euro is currently the worst-performing currency of the day.


The US Dollar - Safe Haven Status Increases Investor Demand!


The US Dollar is currently the best performing currency due to its safe haven status. The USD Index is currently trading 1.25% higher and is the only currency index witnessing gains. The currency is witnessing the strongest gains against the Euro and the New Zealand Dollar.


Consumer inflation in the country remains well above the 2.0% target, and some analysts believe it has stabilized at this higher level, raising the chances of a pause in monetary easing. This is likely to continue supporting the US Dollar, particularly if this week’s employment data beats expectations.


Key Takeaways:


* Trump's announcement of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China sparks a sharp market decline, with the S&P 500 down by 1.76% and risk appetite falling.
As the US 10-year bond yields increase and the VIX climbs, bearish momentum strengthens, signaling further declines in the S&P 500.
* The Euro weakens after Trump hints at potential tariffs on the European Union, with December retail sales and ECB policies adding to downward pressure.
* The US Dollar benefits from its safe haven status, rising 1.25% as investors seek stability amid tariff-related uncertainty.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 19th February 2025.


Is the DAX Overbought After Rising For 7 Weeks Straight?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The DAX rose by 20% in 2024, however, in 2025 so far the DAX has risen more than 15% in only 50 days. The DAX has risen for seven straight weeks, driven by rate cuts and strong earnings reports. Can the DAX maintain momentum or is the price overbought?


DAX 40 - What’s Driving the Bullish Trend?


Three factors are driving the price of the DAX higher. The first is the European Central Bank which has cut for 2 consecutive months and is likely to adjust a further 0.75% in 2025. The lower interest rates and expectations of further cuts are known to support the DAX due to higher consumer demand.





The second factor driving prices higher are the positive earnings data. SAP SE is the most influential stock and has risen by 18% so far this year. SAP’s latest quarterly earnings report saw the company beat revenue expectations by 2.60% and earnings by 1.40%. The second most influential stock for the DAX is Siemens AG which has risen almost 20% in 2025 so far. All of the seven most influential stocks have risen in value this year so far and only 17% of the whole DAX have declined this year so far. However, traders should note that not all companies within the DAX have made public their quarterly earnings reports.


The third factor is the expectation that the Ukraine-Russia conflict will end or reach a ceasefire in the first half of the year. Traders should note that an end to the conflict is more crucial for European indices in comparison to Asian or US indices. This is due to the nature of Europe and European geopolitics.


Is the German DAX Overbought?


When analyzing the price movement the index is trading in the overbought zone on most oscillators and on most timeframes. However, price action and previous impulse waves indicate the price will not be overbought unless the price increases above 23,250EUR. However, the intrinsic value of the DAX will also depend on US tariffs.


If Germany is able to avoid harsh US tariffs, German stocks may continue to increase higher as sentiment improves. However, harsh tariffs are likely to apply downward pressure on the index and increase the likelihood of being overbought in the short-to-medium term.


If the price indeed declines, traders may first target the support level at $22,437.58, which will likely fall in line with the 75-period Moving Average. The main bullish breakout point is at the 22,724.30 mark.


Tariffs on Foreign Cars


A key risk for the DAX as mentioned above is US tariffs, particularly on cars. The DAX index includes Mercedes-Benz, Porsche AG, BMW, and Volkswagen. Total new cars sales in the US from these 4 companies make up almost 10% of the overall sales.





Donald Trump remained defiant despite warnings that his proposed trade war could disrupt the US economy, stating that his administration might impose tariffs of approximately 25% on foreign cars within weeks. He also announced that semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals would soon face higher tariffs, speaking at a news conference on Tuesday.


Key Takeaway Points:


* The DAX has surged over 15% in 2025, driven by ECB rate cuts, strong earnings, and optimism over the Ukraine conflict.
* SAP SE and Siemens AG are the top-performing stocks and 83% of the DAX has witnessed gains. However, some earnings reports are still pending.
* Despite trading in overbought territory, the index may continue rising unless it faces harsh US tariffs.
* Potential US tariffs on foreign cars pose a key risk, impacting major DAX-listed car makers. This includes Mercedes-Benz, Porsche AG, BMW, and Volkswagen.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. halis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.v

[HFM]

Date: 12th March 2025.


Eyes on Inflation: Market Volatility, Tariffs, and Geopolitical Tensions Shake Wall Street.



It was another volatile session as markets assessed fresh news on tariffs and Ukraine, all while positioning for upcoming economic reports like the JOLTS data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Wall Street closed lower but off its lows, with the Dow slipping by -1.14%, finishing at 41,433, after dropping to a session low of 41,175. This decline followed reports that President Trump would increase tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium by another 25%, bringing the total levy to 50%. This move was seen as retaliation for Ontario’s 25% tariff on US electricity imports.
This news lifted some of the market's anxiety, though fears of the ongoing trade war and its broader economic implications remains. The tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports could potentially revive US factory jobs. This decision adds to the growing uncertainty surrounding the stock market, which is grappling with concerns about an economic slowdown.
The S&P 500 closed with a -0.76% loss, settling at 5572, just shy of correction territory, while the NASDAQ fell by -0.18% to 17,436 after fluctuating in and out of positive territory.
Treasury Yields and the Stock Market: Diverging Signals
Despite the declines in stocks, treasury yields saw a rise, with the 2-year up 6.2 basis points at 3.945%, the 3-year increasing by 6 basis points at 3.950%, and the 10-year rising 6.5 basis points to 4.283%. The 30-year saw a 5.5 basis point drop, closing at 4.600%. There was stronger selling, even with a solid 3-year auction, and some haven demand began to fade as dip buyers emerged in the stock market. The dollar closed slightly off its lows at 103.375, while oil ended the day up 0.8% at $66.50 per barrel. Gold also saw an increase of 0.96%, reaching $2916.49 per ounce.
European Stocks Poised for Stronger Open

European stocks were expected to open stronger after Trump sought to reassure investors about the outlook for the US economy. Furthermore, Ukraine agreed to a proposal for a 30-day truce with Russia, giving markets some hope for geopolitical stability. Despite these developments, markets remain nervous about the future, with concerns over sticky inflation, Trump’s tariff policy, and the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts all weighing heavily on investor sentiment.
The VIX, a gauge of stock market volatility, remains elevated near its highest level since August. Similarly, measures of volatility in the US Treasury market are at their highest levels since November. With economic growth in the U.S. uncertain, market participants are feeling the pressure.
Geopolitical and Economic Risks: The EU Responds

In response to the new US tariffs on steel and aluminium, the European Union announced it would impose duties on American goods worth €26 billion ($28.3 billion). The European Commission’s swift action underscores the growing global trade tensions and the potential for further escalation.
Trump's Economic Strategy: A Mixed Picture
President Trump sought to calm recession fears, declaring, “I don’t see it at all. I think this country’s going to boom.” He added that market fluctuations are natural, stating, “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down. But you know what, we have to rebuild our country.” While the president's optimism contrasts with market fears, analysts remain cautious, particularly given the increasing uncertainty about US economic growth and the potential consequences of the ongoing trade wars.
In a meeting with top executives, Trump stressed the importance of speeding up the approval process for environmental regulations and hinted at plans to announce a major electricity project soon. He also suggested that companies manufacturing in the US could benefit from reduced business taxes.
Markets Look to Inflation Data
Investors are also closely watching the US consumer inflation reading, set to be released later in the day. The CPI is expected to advance by 0.3% in February, following a 0.5% increase at the start of the year. Analysts are concerned that if inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve may lack the flexibility to cut interest rates, especially if Trump's economic policies lead to a sharp slowdown in growth.
Commodities: Oil and Gold on the Rise
In commodities, oil extended its gains after the US revised its global oversupply forecast. Gold continued its upward momentum, supported by safe-haven demand amid market uncertainty.
Final Thoughts: Tariffs, Fed Policy, and Market Volatility

As we move forward into 2025, one key question remains: Do tariffs matter more than the Fed's policies for US stock markets?
The answer may depend on how markets react to future trade developments, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve’s actions. As the market navigates this volatile environment, investors will need to stay vigilant and adaptable, ready to respond to the ever-evolving landscape of tariffs, inflation, and economic growth.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.