HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 7th January 2025.


European Stocks Dip, Yen Hits Lows, Bitcoin Surges Over $102K Amid Market Shifts.



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*European stocks are set to open lower, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5%, reflecting caution ahead of key economic releases, including eurozone inflation and US job openings data.
*US futures also edged lower, contrasting with modest gains in Asian markets driven by strength in chip-related stocks. The surge in semiconductor shares followed Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's announcement of new products, reigniting optimism around AI demand.
*Tencent shares plunged by as much as 8%, while battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology dropped over 6% after being labeled a military-linked entity by the Pentagon.
*Market sentiment remains clouded by geopolitical concerns. Traders are digesting rising trade tensions after Donald Trump refuted reports suggesting he would ease tariffs if he returns to the White House. Washington's decision to blacklist several Chinese companies, including tech giant Tencent Holdings, has further strained U.S.-China relations, adding pressure on China’s already slowing economy.
*Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato issued a warning about "excessive moves" in the yen, suggesting potential intervention to stabilize the currency. The Yen slumped to its weakest level since July, underperforming all major currencies, as Japanese retail investor outflows and the Tokyo benchmark fixing drove the decline. Meanwhile, the selling through the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA) and trend-following dollar buying could be a key factors behind the Yen’s drop.
*Justin Trudeau has announced he will resign as Canada's prime minister and as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The US Dollar dip to 107.85 from 109.60 highs, after Trump’s denial.
*The EURUSD rebounded to 1.0413, the GBPUSD rallied to 1.2550.
*The USDJPY fell to 158.42 against the dollar before paring losses to 157.73 by mid-afternoon in Tokyo. The Yen’s performance could be further impacted by US data, particularly Friday’s jobs report. A stronger-than-expected figure may push back expectations for US rate cuts, potentially driving the USDJPY pair to 159.
*Oil prices steadied after dipping for the first time in 6 sessions, with technical indicators suggesting the recent rally may have been overextended.
*Bitcoin surpassed the $102,600 mark, signaling growing confidence in digital assets. A CoinShares report highlighted over $500 million in Bitcoin ETF investments in the year’s first three trading days. MicroStrategy added to the bullish momentum with its ninth consecutive Bitcoin purchase, acquiring another $100 million. The company now holds nearly $45 billion in Bitcoin, and its stock has surged alongside the crypto's rebound — potentially paving the way for further share issuances to fund additional Bitcoin buys. The macroeconomic backdrop remains a key driver for crypto markets. Rumors of a rollback on Trump-era tariffs have caused the USD to weaken, adding volatility to global markets. Bitcoin’s recent price moves reflect this, with traders watching the dollar index closely for cues.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 5th February 2025.


Stock Market Drops as US-China Trade War Escalates; Gold Hits Record High.


Futures for US and European stocks retreated, shrugging off gains in Asian markets as investors assessed the latest earnings from Wall Street tech giants and growing concerns over the US-China trade war.


Gold prices soared to an all-time high, continuing a nearly 1% rally from the previous session, as escalating trade tensions drove demand for safe-haven assets.


Global Stock Market Performance


* Euro Stoxx 50 futures declined 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.5%, weighed down by post-market declines in Alphabet Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
* Asian stock markets advanced for a second straight session, though Chinese equities fell as the market reopened after the Lunar New Year holiday.
* The yen strengthened against the US dollar, while gold surged on increased risk aversion.


Tech Stocks and Trade War Concerns


Asian technology stocks mirrored their US counterparts’ gains, but investor sentiment toward China remained cautious. Markets reacted to Beijing’s swift but measured retaliation after the US imposed a 10% tariff on all imports from China. Compared to the aggressive tit-for-tat measures during Trump’s first term, President Xi Jinping appears to be taking a more calculated approach.


US Jobs Report and Federal Reserve Rate Policy


* The US 10-year Treasury yield declined alongside the US dollar index, after data revealed a larger-than-expected drop in job openings for December, hitting a three-month low.
* The weaker US labour market data reduced fears of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, pushing the US dollar lower and creating a favourable setup for Asian markets.
* Investors now turn to the US ISM services report for further clues on the Fed’s rate policy, with analysts expecting a slowdown in activity due to winter storms and wildfires.


Trump Signals No Urgency for US-China Trade Talks


President Donald Trump told reporters he’s in no rush to negotiate with Chinese President Xi Jinping, stating that he’ll engage in discussions “at the appropriate time.”


Market analysts are concerned that prolonged uncertainty over trade negotiations could lead to increased stock market volatility, especially in China. Despite the delays in trade talks, Trump has shown that he is willing to negotiate, so markets will continue to watch closely.


In a surprising move, the US Postal Service temporarily suspended international shipments from China and Hong Kong. While the reason remains unclear, the suspension follows Trump’s repeal of the de minimis rule, which previously allowed small Chinese shipments under $800 to enter the US duty-free.


US-China trade tensions remain a major market risk and if both sides delay their tariff measures, markets will respond positively, but further escalation could trigger renewed volatility.


Gold Prices Surge as Investors Seek Safe Havens


* Gold prices skyrocketed to a record high of $2,861 an ounce, fueled by concerns over trade disputes, geopolitical instability, and potential inflation risks.
* Beijing’s measured response to US tariffs was notably softer than its previous retaliatory actions, yet investors remain cautious about its long-term effects on global trade and monetary policy.
* Adding to market uncertainty, Trump proposed a US-led reconstruction plan for Gaza, further fueling demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
The gold market is benefiting from rising geopolitical risks, including US-China trade uncertainty and tensions in the Middle East. Regardless of US dollar movements, gold demand remains strong.


US Dollar Weakens Amid Market Uncertainty


* The US dollar continued to weaken, extending Tuesday’s 0.7% drop following disappointing US jobs data.
* A weaker dollar generally boosts gold and commodity prices, making them more affordable for international buyers.
* Spot gold gained 0.7%, trading at $2,861.22 per ounce as of 6:29 a.m. in London. Meanwhile, silver and platinum also advanced, while palladium declined.


Even before the latest US-China tariffs, the precious metals market was experiencing heightened volatility.


* Gold and silver prices in the US surged above international benchmarks, leading to a rush of large-scale shipments into the country ahead of potential tariffs.
* The uncertainty also caused a spike in lease rates for gold and silver, as traders scrambled to secure short-term loans for metals stored in London vaults.
* Crude oil prices slipped, as global growth concerns stemming from the trade war overshadowed the impact of new US sanctions on Iran.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 21st February 2025.


European PMI Disappoint, Weighing on Euro Before German Elections



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The Euro is the first currency to witness the volatility on this month’s PMI reports. The French, German and British PMI data have resulted in the Euro being the worst-performing currency of the European Session so far. However, will the Euro continue to decline throughout the day?


European Purchasing Managers’ Indexes


The French Purchasing Managers Index was the first European index to be made public. The release resulted in the Euro instantly declining 0.24%. The main concern from the French data was the Services PMI which fell from 48.2 to 44.5. Previously the market was expecting the data to remain more or less unchanged. The weak data triggered the decline which came to a halt after Germany’s PMI was released.





The German Manufacturing PMI read 0.5 points higher than previous expectations and the Services PMI was 0.2 points lower. The data from Germany was a relief for Euro investors and the price rose 0.12% higher. However, traders should note that the price of the EURUSD continues to remain 0.20% lower than yesterday’s close.


The price of the EURUSD will now depend on the PMI data from the US. The value of the US Dollar will depend on its PMI release this afternoon and the Consumer Sentiment Index. Analysts expect both the US Services and Manufacturing PMI data to remain above the 50.00 level in the expansion zone.


German Elections 2 Days Away


Germany is set to hold a general election this Sunday, February 23rd, following the collapse of the coalition of social democrats, liberals, and greens. Given the country's highly proportional electoral system, German polls provide a strong indication of potential government formations post-election. The main concern for Germany is the AFD party who are Far-Right Nationalists.


Currently, ahead in the polls are CDU (centre-right), and AFD (far right), followed by the SPD (centre-left). Traders should note that the results of the elections are likely to trigger strong volatility on Monday, but also influence volatility today. Economists may become further concerned if the far-right gains power for the first time due to uncertainty. If the government, similar to France, is unable to form a coalition, this would also be a concern for the Eurozone.


Furthermore, the Euro this week is also under pressure from comments from members of the European Central Bank. ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said to journalists that officials need not slow interest rate cuts, as January's 2.5% inflation is still expected to reach the 2.0% target this year. He also advised the European economy is weaker than previously expected.


EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators


The EURUSD is trading above the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and 100-bar Simple Moving Average on the 2-hour chart. However, the price is moving away from the key resistance level at 1.05058 indicating the price is losing momentum. The short-term volatility is indicating the price is retracing downwards. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price is trading below the 200-bar SMA and is also forming clear lower lows and highs.


Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index is trading above the 200-bar SMA on the 5-minute chart confirming no current conflicts. Currently, the US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day attempting to regain losses from the past 2 weeks. Watch today’s Live Analysis Session for more signals as they develop!


Key Takeaway Points:


* Weak French Services PMI triggered an initial Euro decline, but German PMI provide a slight relief. However, EURUSD remains lower than yesterday’s close.
* The Euro’s direction now depends on the US PMI reports, with analysts expecting US data to stay in expansion territory.
* Sunday's German election could drive volatility, especially if the far-right AFD gains power or if coalition formation proves difficult.
* ECB official Fabio Panetta suggested no need to slow rate cuts, citing weaker-than-expected economic performance and expected inflation decline.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 14th March 2025.


Gold Surges Past Record High as Market Volatility Persists.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Gold Surges Past Record High as Market Volatility Persists


Gold surged towards $2,994 per ounce, surpassing its previous high set on Thursday. With a 2.6% rise this week, gold is on track for its most significant gain since November. Meanwhile, gold futures in New York comfortably exceeded the $3,000 mark, reflecting strong investor sentiment toward the precious metal.


The robust performance of gold this quarter extends its strong annual rally in 2024. Market uncertainty, exacerbated by the US administration’s aggressive trade policies, has dampened risk appetite for equities, pushing the S&P 500 into correction territory this week. Central bank purchases increased ETF inflows, and bullish forecasts from major banks have further fueled gold’s ascent.


Trade Tensions and Market Impact


Former President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions by proposing a 200% tariff on European alcoholic beverages, including wine and champagne. Additionally, he reaffirmed his stance on retaining tariffs on steel and aluminium and signalled that reciprocal tariffs on global trade partners could take effect as early as April 2. As we approach the second quarter, reciprocal tariffs could drive another wave of market turbulence, solidifying gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.


Gold and Equity Market Reactions


The upward momentum in gold has also lifted mining stocks, with Australia’s Evolution Mining Ltd. reaching an all-time high. Global holdings in gold-backed ETFs increased to 2,687 tons, marking the highest level since November 2023.


Analysts at major banks remain bullish on gold’s trajectory. Macquarie Group recently forecasted a potential spike to $3,500 per ounce in Q2, while BNP Paribas revised its outlook to show gold prices consistently above $3,000. Gold traded at $2,983.50 per ounce in the Asia session, reflecting a 14% year-to-date gain. Meanwhile, silver edged lower after nearing $34 per ounce, while platinum and palladium recorded gains.





US Stock Market Recovery Amid Uncertainty


After a sharp sell-off, US stock futures rebounded. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures gained 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. Despite the slight recovery, Wall Street remains on edge following the S&P 500’s descent into correction territory.


Trump’s firm stance on tariffs has added to market concerns. During a meeting with NATO’s secretary general, he dismissed any possibility of easing trade restrictions, acknowledging that further market disruptions may lie ahead.


Government Shutdown and Economic Indicators
Adding to the economic uncertainty, a potential US government shutdown loomed over Wall Street. However, a breakthrough emerged late Thursday as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer signalled a willingness to advance a Republican-led stopgap spending bill.


Today the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey is expected to shed light on how consumers are coping with inflation and trade disruptions. Last month’s report indicated weakening economic confidence, which could have further implications for spending trends.


Asian Markets Rally Amid China’s Economic Stimulus
Asian stock markets saw a strong performance this morning, brushing off Wall Street’s losses. Chinese stocks surged after state-run banks and financial institutions were instructed to support consumer spending.


Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 2.5% to 24,038.85, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.9% to 3,420.65. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 added 0.9%, while Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 0.6%.


China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration issued directives aimed at boosting consumer finance, including encouraging credit card usage and providing support for struggling borrowers. Economists, however, argue that broader reforms—such as wage growth and enhanced social welfare—are necessary for sustained economic recovery.


Wall Street’s Struggles Amid AI Stock Declines
Despite positive economic data, including lower-than-expected wholesale inflation and strong job market indicators, stock market turbulence continued. AI-related stocks, which have been at the forefront of market gains, faced renewed pressure. Palantir Technologies fell 4.8%, Super Micro Computer dropped 8%, and Nvidia fluctuated before closing 0.1% lower.


Tesla also struggled, declining 3% and extending its 2025 losses to over 40%. In contrast, Intel shares soared 14.6% after announcing Lip-Bu Tan as its new CEO.


Oil Prices and Currency Movements
In commodities, US crude oil prices rose by $0.46 to $67.01 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by $0.44 to $70.32 per barrel. The US dollar strengthened to 148.63 Yen, while the Euro dipped slightly to $1.0845.


Conclusion
Market volatility remains high as investors navigate shifting trade policies, inflation concerns, and economic uncertainties. While gold continues to shine as a safe-haven asset, equity markets face persistent headwinds. As geopolitical and economic developments unfold, traders and investors must remain vigilant in the days ahead.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.