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Date: 3rd January 2025.


NASDAQ Falls as Tesla Misses Delivery Targets: What’s Next for January?



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


The NASDAQ fell in value for a fifth consecutive day, declining during the US trading session. The index recorded gains during the morning session, but these were erased as US traders shorted the NASDAQ, resulting in a 0.17% decline by the end of the day. The NASDAQ trades at a 5% discount and found support at the previous support level. What can traders expect from the NASDAQ in January?


NASDAQ - Why did the NASDAQ Decline For A Fifth Day?


The main reason for the decline on Monday was Tesla stocks which fell more than 6.00% due to the company failing to meet delivery expectations. Investors had projected 510,000 vehicle deliveries for Tesla in the fourth quarter of 2024, with analysts emphasizing the importance of achieving at least 500,000. However, Tesla's final delivery count reached 495,570, falling short of both targets. Consequently, the stock dropped over 6.00%, adding pressure to the NASDAQ, where Tesla holds a 3.79% weight. Tesla is the NASDAQ’s 7th most influential stock.


In addition to this, investors also note that the weakness of the NASDAQ was also partially due to the lack of bullish momentum amongst stock which did increase in value. Of the most influential stocks, only 8 stocks rose in value with an average increase of 0.79%. The average decline was 1.15%.


The decline is also partially due to the rise in the US Dollar making the US stock market less attractive to foreign investors. As a result, the stock market can potentially come under further pressure taking into account the bullish Dollar, hawkish Federal Reserve and upcoming tariffs across multiple industries. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 50% chance that the Federal Reserve will not adjust interest rates until May 2025.





Earnings Season


Given a hawkish Federal Reserve, a strong Dollar, and the potential for upcoming trade wars, a 5% dip from recent highs might appear modest for the NASDAQ. Traders should remember that during the last trade war triggered by Trump, the NASDAQ experienced a sharper decline of 16-17%. However, company earnings could be a lifeline for the NASDAQ if quarterly earnings reports read higher than previous expectations and guidance.


Earnings season will officially start on the 15th of January, however, for the technology sectors, earnings will gain momentum from the 21st onwards. On the 21st Netflix will release their quarterly earnings report for the 4th quarter, and on the 22nd Tesla. The two companies hold a weight of 6.21% between them.


NASDAQ - Technical Analysis


On Monday, the NASDAQ rose during the Asian and European Session. Buy signals were also backed by the VIX index and Bond Yields which were trading lower. However, the NASDAQ was and still is trading below the 75-bar EMA and 100-bar SMA. In addition to this, oscillators were also priced below the neutral level adding to the bearish bias. The bearish bias continues even as the NASDAQ increases during today’s Asian session. Traders should note that the price action can quickly change as the US session approaches.





Wave analysis currently continues to show lower lows and lower highs. The current retracement measures 1.29% and retracements over the past days have on average measured 1.43%. The only concern for investors is the support level at $20,794.47 and if this afternoon’s ISM Manufacturing PMI may potentially trigger a different type of volatility. If not, indicators continue to point to a potential downward bias in the short-term. Sell signals are likely to intensify if the price falls below $20,967.30 and $20,902.50.


Summary:


*The NASDAQ declines for a fifth consecutive day due to a bullish Dollar, hawkish Fed and Tesla’s miss.
*Tesla misses its 4th quarter deliveries expectations triggering a 6% decline. All US Indices decline after the opening of the US trading session.
*Tesla's final delivery count reached 495,570, falling short of all targets.
*Earnings season kicks off on January 15, with tech sector momentum starting January 21, led by Netflix and Tesla.
*NASDAQ’s bullish price movement forms a retracement similar to recent days. Traders focus on the US session and prices lower than $20,967.30.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

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