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    Thread: HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

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      Date: 25th November 2024.


      New Secretary Cheers Markets; Trump Trade Eased.





      Asia & European Sessions:


      *Equities and Treasuries rise, as markets view Donald Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary as a stabilizing decision for the US economy and markets.
      *Bessent: Head of macro hedge fund Key Square Group, supports Trump’s tax and tariff policies but gradually. He is expected to focus on economic and market stability rather than political gains. His nomination alleviates concerns over protectionist policies that could escalate inflation, trade tensions, and market volatility.
      *Asian stocks rose, driven by gains in Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Chinese equities fail to follow regional trends, presenting investors’ continued disappointment by the lack of strong fiscal measures to boost the economy. The PBOC keeps policy loan rates unchanged after the September cut.
      *US futures also see slight increases. 10-year Treasury yields fall by 5 basis points to 4.35%. Nvidia dropped 3.2%, affected by its high valuation and influence on broader market trends. Intuit fell 5.7% after a disappointing earnings forecast. Meta Platforms declined 0.7% following the Supreme Court’s decision to allow a class action lawsuit over the Cambridge Analytica scandal.


      Key events this week:


      *Japan’s CPI, as the BOJ signals a possible policy change at December’s meeting.
      *RBNZ expected to cut its key rate on Wednesday.
      *CPI & GDP from Europe will be released.
      Traders will focus on the Fed’s November meeting minutes, along with consumer confidence and personal consumption expenditure data, to assess potential rate cuts next year.





      Financial Markets Performance:


      *The US Dollar declines as US Treasuries climb.
      *Bitcoin recovers from a weekend drop, hovering around 98,000, having more than doubled in value this year. Analysts suggest consolidation around the 100,000 level before any potential breakthrough.
      *EURUSD recovers slightly to 1.0463 from 1.0320 lows.
      *Oil prices drop after the largest weekly increase in nearly two months, with ongoing geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East. UKOIL fell below $75 a barrel, while USOIL is at $70.35.
      *Iran announced plans to boost its nuclear fuel-making capacity after being censured by the UN, increasing the potential for sanctions under Trump’s administration.
      *Israel’s ambassador to the US indicated a potential cease-fire deal with Hezbollah, which could ease concerns about Middle Eastern oil production, a region supplying about a third of the world’s oil.
      *Russia’s war in Ukraine escalated with longer-range missile use, raising concerns about potential disruptions to crude flows.
      *Citigroup and JPMorgan predict that OPEC may delay a planned increase in production for the third time during their meeting this weekend.
      *Gold falls to $2667.45 after its largest rise in 20 months last week.Swaps traders see a less-than-even chance the central bank will cut rates next month. Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on gold, as it doesn’t pay interest.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

      Andria Pichidi
      HFMarkets

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 18th December 2024.


      UK Inflation Climbs: All Eyes on the Fed’s Next Move!



      Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


      *US Retail Sales increase by 0.7% in November surpassing expectations of +0.6%.
      *The US Dollar Index rose in value on Tuesday after starting the day with a bearish price gap. This week the US Dollar Index trades sideways as traders await the Fed’s rate decision.
      *The Federal Reserve will confirm their rate decision this evening with most experts expecting a 0.25% adjustment.
      *The UK’s inflation rate increases from 2.3% to 2.6% meeting the market’s previous expectations. The GBP quickly increases in value against all currencies.
      *Analysts expect the Bank of England to pause but expect at least 2 monetary policy members to vote for a rate cut.


      GBPUSD - Both The Fed and BoE Are Scheduled To Announce Their Interest Rate Decisions!


      The GBPUSD rose up to 0.40% in value on Tuesday before slightly retracing and closing the day with a 0.21% gain. The increase in value is primarily due to the UK’s employment data which shows signs of stability and salary growth. The Bank of England is concerned the growth in salaries will continue to provide support for inflation. As a result, the BoE will likely pause in today’s rate decision.





      During this morning's Asian session, the GBP saw a sudden bullish spike after the UK made public its inflation rate. The UK’s inflation rate increased from 2.3% to 2.6% which is an 8 month high. The higher rate of inflation along with high salary growth is likely to prompt the Bank of England to keep the rate unchanged at tomorrow’s meeting and for the upcoming months thereafter.


      During this morning's Asian session, the GBP saw a sudden bullish spike after the UK made public its inflation rate. The UK’s inflation rate increased from 2.3% to 2.6% which is an 8 month high. The higher rate of inflation along with high salary growth is likely to prompt the Bank of England to keep the rate unchanged at tomorrow’s meeting and for the upcoming months thereafter.


      October's labor market data, which came in positive, continues to improve sentiment towards the Pound and UK. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, employment rose by 173,000 instead of the expected drop of 12,000. Average wages, both with and without bonuses, grew by 5.2%, beating forecasts of 4.6% and 5.0%, respectively.


      On Tuesday, the GBP rose in value against the US Dollar, Swiss Franc and the Euro, but fell in value against the JPY. During this morning’s Asian session, the GBP is increasing in value against all currencies except against the Euro. However, traders will monitor if the GBP is able to maintain momentum against the US Dollar.


      Bank of England Supporting The GBP!


      As inflation in the UK over the past 3 years rose to a level substantially higher than the US and the Eurozone, the Bank of England is aiming to cut interest rates at a slower pace. The UK’s inflation peak was at 11.1%, the US inflation peak was 2% lower and the EU 0.5% lower. As a result, the GBP is maintaining its value and has been supported by this factor over the past 2 days.


      All experts currently believe the Bank of England will keep its base rate at 4.75% and cut rates at a slower pace than the Federal Reserve. However, investors believe that of the 9 members within the Monetary Policy Committee, 2 will vote for a rate cut. If more than 2 vote to cut rates, the Pound may come under short term pressure.


      Federal Reserve


      The Federal Reserve is due to make a decision on the Federal Fund Rate. Currently, the market believes the FOMC will vote to adjust rates by 0.25%. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates there is a 95% chance of the Federal Reserve opting to cut to 4.25-4.50% and the slightly lower bond yields also indicate a cut.


      However, when taking into consideration the rise in consumer and producer inflation, resilient employment sector and yesterday’s strong retail sales data, the possibility of a pause remains. The US Retail Sales increased by 0.7% in November surpassing expectations of +0.6%. The increase was the strongest in 4 months, however, Core Retail Sales only rose by 0.2%.


      One of the main elements which traders will be monitoring is if the Fed will indicate 2 or 3 cuts. Currently, the market is pricing in another 2 rate cuts. If the Chairman, Mr Powell, indicates the central bank could cut up to 3 times, the US Dollar is likely to come under pressure.


      Some traders fear that the Fed may suggest a full pause in the easing cycle or a significant slowdown in 2025. This concern has arisen because of inflation and newly elected US President Donald Trump's trade tariff policies on imports. If traders sense this hawkish tone within the Chairman’s Press Conference this evening, the US Dollar could see significant gains. Particularly as this will trigger higher bond yields which are already trading close to 6 month highs.


      For further information on the Federal Reserve and Bank of England’s rate decision traders can join HFM’s Live Analysis on YouTube (Today at 12:00 GMT).


      GBPUSD - Technical Analysis


      In terms of technical analysis, the GBPUSD maintains its slightly bullish bias as per yesterday’s market analysis article. However, even though the price has risen since yesterday, the GBPUSD has yet to hit the 1.27464 level mentioned earlier. The price movement will depend strongly on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and the guidance they provide for the upcoming 1-2 quarters.


      If the GBPUSD is able to maintain bullish price movement and rise again back up to the day’s high (1.27264), the exchange rate may maintain its buy indications from Moving Averages, RSI and price action.





      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

      Michalis Efthymiou
      HFMarkets

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 13th January 2025.


      Global Market Update: Asian Stocks Fall, Pound Weakens,Oil Surges Amid Fed and Geopolitical Shifts.



      Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


      Asia & European Sessions:


      * Asian markets tumbled alongside European and US equity futures as investors scaled back expectations of near-term interest rate cuts by the Fed, following stronger-than-expected US payroll data.
      *Bank of America has revised its outlook, no longer anticipating two 25 bps rate cuts this year and warning that the Fed’s next move could be a hike. Goldman Sachs also adjusted its forecast, expecting two rate cuts instead of three for 2025.
      *Chinese equities also slid further despite data showing record exports for 2024, as concerns linger over potential higher US tariffs once President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
      *The Pound extended its decline from last week, hitting a multi-month low.
      *Oil prices surged to a 4-month high due to fresh US sanctions on Russia. These measures included restrictions on two major oil exporters, insurance companies, and over 150 oil tankers.
      *China Intervenes to support the Yuan: China intensified its efforts to stabilize the yuan after the currency neared record lows in offshore trading. The People’s Bank of China, along with other regulators, vowed to strengthen oversight of the foreign exchange market, crack down on disruptive activities, and prevent further declines in the yuan.
      *Geopolitical tension continues as Justin Trudeau stated that Canada is ready to respond with counter-tariffs against the US if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his threat to begin a trade war in North America.


      Canada is the largest buyer of US-made products, purchasing approximately $320 billion worth in the first 11 months of last year. He emphasized that Canada is the top export partner for 35 US states, and any trade restrictions would ultimately hurt American businesses and workers. Recalling the 2018 tariffs on steel and aluminum under the Trump administration, Trudeau pointed out that Canada had responded by imposing duties on various US goods, including appliances, bourbon whiskey, and boats. He reiterated that his government is ready to take similar action if necessary.





      Financial Markets Performance:


      *The USDIndex has inched up to 109.84, despite the fact that the Yen strengthened. EURUSD and cable remain under pressure.
      *The Pound fell as much as 0.7% to $1.2126, marking its lowest level since November 2023, amid stagflation concerns and budget jitters. This extended a 1.7% drop from the previous week.
      “A slowing economy and widening deficits in both the current account and fiscal balances are weighing on the pound,” said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.


      *Oil markets were in focus as UKOIL rose above $81 per barrel during Asian trading hours & USOIL to $77.55 driven by US sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector.
      *Gold is steady at $2686.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

      Andria Pichidi
      HFMarkets

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 12th February 2025.


      Financial Markets Await Key Inflation Data Amid Fed's Steady Stance.


      Market activity remained largely uneventful despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and the commencement of the Treasury’s February refunding. Investors stayed on the sidelines, with little market-moving news to provide direction. Ongoing concerns over tariffs added an element of uncertainty, while Treasury yields remained under pressure throughout the session.


      Powell Reaffirms Cautious Approach to Interest Rates


      In his Senate testimony, Powell reiterated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is in no rush to adjust interest rates. He highlighted the resilience of the US economy and labour market, noting that while inflation has moderated over the past two years, it remains elevated. Powell also suggested that the neutral rate might be slightly higher than previously estimated, though this is not a new stance among policymakers. He avoided discussing fiscal policies or tariffs but explicitly stated that the Federal Reserve has no plans to issue a central bank digital currency. However, he confirmed the Fed’s support for stablecoin regulations.


      Bond Market Reaction and Treasury Yield Movements


      Treasury markets remained under pressure, with the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report keeping buyers on the sidelines. Even a strong 3-year auction failed to provide a significant boost. Short-term yields saw slight increases, with the 2-year yield closing at 4.287% and the 3-year yield at 4.305%, both just below their session highs. Longer-term yields also edged higher, with the 10-year note at 4.533% and the 30-year bond at 4.743%.


      Wall Street Mixed as Dollar Weakens


      US equity markets closed mixed after recovering from early losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.28%, while the S&P 500 inched up 0.03%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.36%, weighed down by sector-specific pressures. The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from a session high of 108.463 to settle at 107.944 as Powell’s remarks reassured investors, overshadowing concerns over tariffs and rising yields.


      Asian and European Markets React


      Ahead of the inflation data release, equity index futures showed mixed movements, while Treasury yields edged lower following Tuesday’s declines. In Asia, Japanese 5-year bond yields reached 1% for the first time since 2008, and the yen weakened for a third consecutive session on tariff-related worries. Meanwhile, China and Hong Kong stocks saw tech-driven gains, with Alibaba Group rising 8.6% on reports of a partnership with Apple to integrate AI into its products. DeepSeek’s AI developments also boosted Chinese stocks, with analysts suggesting the rally has further upside potential.


      In Europe, ABN Amro Bank NV reported lower-than-expected profits, while Heineken NV exceeded expectations on beer volumes. The UK’s fiscal watchdog revised its growth forecasts downward, posing fresh challenges for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who may face potential spending cuts.


      Inflation Data in Focus


      Investors are eagerly awaiting key US inflation data, set for release later today. Market forecasts indicate that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, likely rose 0.3% in January—the fifth such increase in the past six months. The strong labour market continues to support economic growth, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious approach to monetary policy.


      Money markets are currently pricing in a single quarter-point rate cut by the Fed this year, expected by September. Earlier projections included two additional cuts in 2025, but a strong January jobs report has prompted a reassessment of the policy outlook.


      Currency and Commodity Market Highlights


      The Yen remained under pressure as investors worried about Japan’s potential inclusion in the latest round of US tariffs. The Rupee extended its rally following suspected central bank intervention, while Vietnam’s Dong fell to a record low against the dollar.


      EURUSD Faces Downside Risks Amid Tariff and Fed Policy Concerns


      EURUSD remains steady around 1.0360 during Wednesday’s Asian session but could face depreciation as the US advances a plan for reciprocal tariffs. President Trump’s administration is considering executive action to match or exceed tariffs imposed on US exports, potentially targeting the EU, Japan, and China.


      The Eurozone is particularly vulnerable, as it currently imposes a 10% duty on US automobile imports while benefiting from lower tariffs on its own exports. Additional trade tensions could weigh on the Euro.


      Meanwhile, the US Dollar may strengthen after Fed Chair Powell signalled no urgency to cut interest rates, reinforcing a risk-off sentiment alongside Trump’s 25% tariff hike. These factors could add pressure on EURUSD in the near term.


      In the commodities market, oil prices edged lower amid reports of a large increase in US crude stockpiles. Brent crude traded below $77 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered around $73. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 9-million-barrel increase in US inventories, marking the largest build in a year if confirmed by official data.


      Gold prices declined for a second consecutive session after briefly surging above $2,942 per ounce in volatile trading.


      Market Outlook


      As the global markets brace for inflation data and further Fed guidance, investors remain cautious. Powell’s testimony reaffirmed the Fed’s patient stance on rate adjustments, while geopolitical and economic uncertainties—ranging from trade tariffs to currency fluctuations—continue to influence market sentiment. Traders will be closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators for further direction on interest rates and inflation trends.
      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.


      Andria Pichidi
      HFMarkets



      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 6th March 2025.


      The Euro is on The Rise But Is the Currency Overbought?



      Trading Leveraged products is Risky


      The Euro rose more than 4% over four days making it the currency’s best performance since COVID lockdowns. The upward price movement is primarily driven by the European bond market which saw its worst day since the 1990s. However, investors are now evaluating whether the Euro is overbought.


      Why Is the Euro Increasing in Value?


      The Euro's rise is driven by the EU's new ‘re-arm’ plans, announced by the European Commission President. This is in response to the US suspending military aid to Ukraine. Analysts believe increased military spending will strengthen the Euro in the short term, but its impact may fade, especially if the Ukraine-Russia conflict ends. The US is looking to achieve this by halting aid and no longer sharing military intelligence.





      In addition, the German Bond fell and witnessed their worst day in almost 30 years. As a result the higher bond yields also continue to support the Euro. Currently, the Euro Index is trading 0.09% higher and is only witnessing a decline against the Japanese Yen. However, the price movement of the Euro will also depend on the European Central Bank and potential Trump Tariffs.


      Economists remain convinced that Trump's tariff threats are serious and will be imposed on the EU. Just last week, he announced that Washington will impose 25% tariffs on Europe-made ‘cars and all other things’. On April 2nd, Washington plans to introduce another round of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, adding to those already in effect. Germany remains particularly vulnerable, as a large portion of its industry relies on exports to the US. This can potentially have a negative effect on the Euro and the European stock market.


      Is the European Central Bank a Risk for the Euro?


      The European Central Bank is due to announce its rate decision this afternoon and conduct a press conference thereafter. The ECB may potentially aim to calm the market after German Bonds took a hit. If the ECB remains dovish and also reassures the market of the Eurozone’s fiscal and monetary policy, the Euro can retrace in the short term. Analysts currently advise today’s ECB meeting will most likely be the most interesting in years and the most unpredictable.


      Markets are expecting a rate of 2.65% from the ECB. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe the ECB will maintain its "dovish" stance in March and April to support the economy, especially as inflation slowed to 2.4% in February from 2.5% the previous month, nearing the 2.0% target. If the ECB advice rates are likely to continue falling in 2025, the Euro will struggle to maintain bullish momentum.


      EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators


      The EURUSD is still witnessing indications of bullish price movement on the 2-hour chart and fundamentals also support the upward price movement. However, simultaneously, the price is obtaining indications the currency is overbought in the short to medium term. The EURUSD is trading above the overbought level on the RSI and is obtaining a divergence signal on most timeframes.


      Therefore, the possibility of the price being overbought and retracing remains, but the price action will depend on the ECB. Until the ECB’s rate decision and press conference, the average price at 1.08000 will be key as it has been so far today.


      Key Takeaway Points:


      * The Euro surged over 4% in four days, its best performance since COVID lockdowns, driven by European bond market turmoil.
      * The EU’s ‘re-arm’ plans and rising German bond yields boost the Euro, but US tariffs and ECB decisions may impact its trend.
      * The ECB’s upcoming rate decision and monetary policy stance could shape short-term price movements, with a dovish approach expected.
      * Despite strong fundamentals, RSI overbought levels and divergence signals suggest a possible retracement, depending on the ECB.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Michalis Efthymiou
      HFMarkets



      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 20th March 2025.


      The SNP500 Remains Shaky As Stocks Attempt To Recover!



      Trading Leveraged products is Risky


      The SNP500 loses momentum and declines more than 1.00% during Thursday’s European session. The decline results in the SNP500 losing previous gains from Wednesday. The main cause for the lower price is due to the Federal Reserve lowering its projections for the economic outlook. In addition to this, traders are fearing April 2nd. Why is ‘April 2nd’ triggering a lower risk appetite?


      April 2nd And What It Means For The Market?


      On April 2nd the US is anticipated to impose reciprocal tariffs on global markets. In other words, like-for-like tariffs mean that the US will charge its competition as they are charged themselves. According to the White House’s latest comments, ‘unless the tariff and non-tariff barriers are at the same level, or the US has higher tariffs, the tariffs will go into effect’.





      The market’s risk appetite has significantly fallen as this date approaches as investors fear these policies will trigger lower economic growth. This includes the economy globally and within the US. The VIX index, which is known to indicate the risk appetite of the market, fell in value by 16% over the past week. This week, indeed the SNP500 rose in value, however, today the VIX index shows signs of strengthening. If the VIX rises, this may further indicate negative price movement of the SNP500 and the broader stock market.


      A potential positive for the stock market is if the Federal Reserve takes a more dovish approach in April and May. In today’s early hours, President Trump attempted to pressure the Federal Reserve into considering a rate cut at the next meeting. According to experts, the President is attempting to prompt the Fed to provide a cushion for April 2nd.


      The Federal Reserve


      Yesterday, US Fed officials maintained the interest rate at 4.50%, aligning with analysts' expectations. They highlighted rising economic uncertainty due to new trade tariffs and the unclear impact of sanctions on inflation, opting for a wait-and-see approach while monitoring data.


      Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that long-term consumer price index projections remain stable, with inflation expected to rise temporarily. The Central Bank changed its predictions for the upcoming quarters. According to updated estimates, Inflation in 2025 is expected to be at 2.7%, compared to 2.5% previously, and Unemployment could be fixed at 4.4%, which is 0.1% more than the previous forecast. Simultaneously, the expected growth rate of the US economy has been revised from 2.1% to 1.7%.


      Additionally, the quantitative tightening (QT) program will start slowing down on April 1. Following the meeting, the Dollar strengthened against major currencies.


      SNP500 - Technical Analysis


      On the 2-hour chart, the price of the SNP500 has witnessed mixed results throughout the day but has managed to remain above the major trend lines and in the bullish regression channel of the Bollinger Bands. However, on intraday timeframes, indications remain mixed, meaning traders should be prepared for volatility in both directions.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Michalis Efthymiou
      HFMarkets



      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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      Date: 17th April 2025.


      Economic Data Lifts Crude Oil — Will Resistance Stall the Rally?



      Trading Leveraged products is Risky


      Crude Oil prices rise for a second consecutive day due to supply chain concerns and positive Chinese data. The price of Crude Oil rose 1.58% on Wednesday, and a further 1.15% during this morning’s Asian session. However, this upward price movement has taken the asset to the key resistance level at $62.70. Is the price about to witness a decline due to the current resistance level?


      Why are Oil Prices Increasing?


      One of the main reasons why Crude Oil prices have been increasing in value is the positive economic data from China. China and the US hold the biggest influence over Crude Oil demand as the two countries are the largest importers. China's first quarter’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4%, surpassing the projected 5.2%. However, analysts attribute this growth to a surge in demand for Chinese goods ahead of the anticipated tariff war and predict a potential slowdown by year-end.


      Nonetheless, the oil market reacted positively to the news that the Chinese economy saw better figures than previously expected. Traders will be watching closely to see if deteriorating economic data in the coming months, driven by trade policy, will put downward pressure on prices.



      Crude Oil


      The US also made public positive economic data from Retail Sales. The Retail Sales figure rose by 1.4%, the highest in more than 12 months. The Core Retail Sales also rose by 0.5%, higher than the projected figure and the previous month.


      Furthermore, the US, UK and Japan have confirmed they will begin negotiating a trade agreement with the US. The tone is positive and can have a positive impact on the price of Oil. However, the key factor for the Oil market is whether the US will come to an agreement with China. In terms of supply, Iraq and Kazakhstan have announced additional output cuts to keep supply controlled. In addition to this, the US is imposing additional sanctions on Iranian oil which is further pressuring the supply side. Restrictions on supply chains are known to push prices higher.


      The Federal Reserve and How the Economy Will Influence Crude Oil?


      Even though economic data surprised the market and provided a positive tone for many assets, the Federal Reserve was less positive. The Chairman, Mr Jerome Powell spoke towards the end of the US session discussing inflation, employment and interest rates. According to Mr Powell, the Tariffs imposed by the US administration were higher than previous expectations.


      According to the Fed, the trade policy is likely to trigger higher inflation, but it is unclear whether the higher inflation will be temporary or long-term. The Consumer and Producer Price Index over the next 3-6 months will be key for the Federal Reserve. The key statement that captured investors' attention was the chairman's remarks regarding the Federal Reserve's primary focus.


      Powell said, ‘without price stability, we cannot achieve long periods of strong labor market conditions’. This comment was a clear indication that the Federal Reserve will concentrate on controlling inflation and will allow the employment sector to be temporarily hit. The hawkish tone from the Fed can be seen in the Fedwatch Tool.


      The expectations of a pause have risen 14% over the past week, mainly due to the speech yesterday. However, the market still believes the Federal Reserve will cut in June 2025.


      Crude Oil - Technical Analysis


      The main concern for Crude Oil is the resistance level at $62.70, the domino effect of a Federal Reserve reluctant to cut rates and if the so-called ‘trade war’ escalates. As the price rose to the resistance level this morning, the asset quickly declined. Nonetheless, on a 2-hour chart, the asset remains above the trend line and above the neutral area of the RSI. However, the price is below the Volume-weighted average price. Therefore, we have conflicting signals.



      Crude Oil


      However, if the price continues to decline and establish itself below the 200-bar simple moving average in the 3-minute timeframe, the sell signals are likely to strengthen.


      Key Takeaway Points:


      1. Oil prices rose for a second day, driven by strong Chinese GDP, OPEC+ supply cuts, and renewed sanctions on Iran.
      2. Positive economic data from China and the US boosted demand outlook, though analysts warn China's growth may slow due to upcoming tariffs.
      3. The Fed maintained a hawkish stance, prioritizing inflation control, and raising uncertainty about rate cuts despite strong economic figures.
      4. Trade talks with the US, UK, and Japan lifted market sentiment, but concerns remain over a potential escalation in the US-China trade dispute.


      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


      Click HERE to READ more Market news.


      Michalis Efthymiou
      HFMarkets



      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Though trading on financial markets involves high risk, it can still generate extra income in case you apply the right approach. By choosing a reliable broker such as InstaForex you get access to the international financial markets and open your way towards financial independence. You can sign up here.


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