HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 21th November 2024.


Gold Regains Momentum & NVIDIA Delivers a Revenue Surge!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*NVIDIA beat earnings expectations, and nearly doubled revenue on an annual basis.
*NVIDIA stocks dip slightly despite strong earnings and a strong forecast for the current quarter. Analysts expect market participants to purchase the dip.
*The Japanese Yen wins back some ground as Bank of Japan Governor indicates the regulator will be willing to hike to support the FX market.
*Gold, Silver and other Metals all rise due to predictions of high retail and institutional demand and geopolitical tensions remaining high.


NASDAQ – NVIDIA Surpasses Earnings Expectations!


The NASDAQ took a sudden dip on Wednesday measuring 1.50%, however, investors quickly took the opportunity to purchase at the lower price as most indicators fell to give an oversold indication. As a result, the NASDAQ ended the day only slightly lower than the open price, but downward momentum remains this morning.





The downward momentum is partially due to geopolitical tensions which are on the rise. Yesterday, Ukraine fired UK-made missiles into Russia and fired US-made the day before. There are also reports and speculations that Russia has sent ICB Missiles into Ukraine for the first time. However, reports are not confirmed, and there are signs of certain stocks recovering.


Currently, there is no economic data which is driving the lack of demand, therefore investors are mainly concentrating on NVIDIA earnings. NVIDIA beat earnings expectations by 8.50% and revenue by 5.90%. Investors were particularly impressed by the significantly higher revenue which has almost doubled annually. In addition to this, the forecast given for the current quarter came in relatively strong. Lastly, the CEO, Jenson Huang, said to Bloomberg that demand exceeds supply but the company is setting in place measures to boost supply in order to meet the high level of demand.


Taking into consideration the strong earnings, positive tone and upbeat forecasts for the coming quarter, many may wonder, “why is the stock declining 2.50% during this morning’s Asian session?”. This is partially due to the lower risk appetite, but also due to certain forecast expectations for NVIDIA not being met. The average NVIDIA forecast expectations from Wall Street firms was $37.1 billion, which NVIDIA comfortably surpassed.


However, certain firms had expectations as high as $41 billion. Based on these higher expectations, the company underachieved and could trigger a lack of demand from this sector of Wall Street. Though many analysts continue to expect shareholders to purchase the lower price as long as the stock market will remain favorable.


EURJPY – BOJ To Consider Hike!


The EURJPY declines for a second consecutive day, particularly gaining bearish momentum after this morning’s Bank of Japan press conference. The main takeaway from the press conference was that the Governor told journalists that the BOJ was willing to hike interest rates in the upcoming months but decisions will be made meeting by meeting.





The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates in July was influenced in part by the weak Yen, which had driven up import costs and inflation. At the Europlace Financial Forum in Tokyo, Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that exchange-rate fluctuations are a key consideration in shaping economic and inflation forecasts. He noted that the central bank carefully examines what is driving these currency changes when assessing their impact.


The EURJPY now trades below the 75-Bar Exponential Moving Average and below the 50.00 on the RSI. In addition to this, the exchange rate continues to form lower swing lows while the Euro underperforms against most currencies. These indications point towards a potential downward price movement.


Gold – Geopolitical Tensions Send Gold on a Bullish Path!


Gold has increased in value for a fourth consecutive day, driven largely by geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the absence of significant US economic news has left markets uncertain about the Federal Reserve’s next move. Gold is currently witnessing an active buy signal from most momentum-based indicators due to the strong bullish momentum.





For example, traders are able to see the price trading above the Bollinger Band, within a bullish moving average crossover and significantly high on most oscilators. However, investors should note as the price increases, the asset can become overbought and this may trigger a retracement, a correction or sideways price movement.


In terms of geopolitical tensions, hopes for a Middle East ceasefire are being tempered by Russia’s revision of its nuclear doctrine, which aims to strengthen its borders after the US-approved long-range strikes from Ukraine reached deep into Russian territory. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s re-election has yet to significantly influence the conflict, though markets remain optimistic about potential positive developments following his January 20 inauguration.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th December 2024.


Stocks Cautious Amid Rate Cuts for Christmas; Geopolitical Unrest.



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


Investors entered the week with caution as geopolitical unrest, spanning from Syria to South Korea, cast a shadow over the global economic outlook. This cautious tone comes as investors prepare for a week shaped by central bank announcements, a pivotal Chinese policy meeting, and US inflation data.


Asia & European Sessions:


*The global market impact of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow remained uncertain. Assad’s removal has created a power vacuum, further destabilizing an already volatile region. Assad, whose family ruled Syria for five decades, fled to Moscow after rebels toppled his regime. Meanwhile, oil prices showed mixed movement, and US stock futures inched downward.
*South Korea: political tensions escalated as reports emerged that authorities were considering restricting President Yoon Suk Yeol’s international travel. This development followed his brief declaration of martial law during a budget dispute, which he later rescinded.
*Asian shares were largely down on Monday, with South Korea’s index tumbling 2.6% and the Asian equity index dropping 0.3% overall, following a record-breaking performance in US markets last week.
*Chinese markets also weakened after data highlighted sluggish demand recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. The CPI in November decelerated to 0.2%, the lowest since June, while factory deflation extended into a 26th straight month painting a mixed picture of the effects of recent stimulus efforts on the economy.
*This week: A much anticipated ECB meeting headlines this week with another -25 bp cut widely expected. Additionally, the SNB is seen delivering a -25 bp reduction. And the BoC is in easing mode too, with increased odds for another -50 bps, while RBA is likely to hold rates steady as the country’s economy shows signs of cooling. In the US a solid jobs report did not dissuade expectations for a quarter point reduction next week, though the CPI will help solidify outlooks.





Financial Markets Performance:


*Currency markets reflected the geopolitical unease and the resilient US economy, with the USDindex strengthening as a safe-haven asset, at 106.50.
*The Euro and Turkish lira slid, partly influenced by the upheaval in Syria, expectations of further monetary easing by the ECB and the broader risk-off sentiment.
*Oil climbed to $67.60 as traders reacted to Saudi Arabia’s deeper-than-expected cuts to crude prices for Asia and speculated on the potential economic fallout from the collapse of Syria’s Assad regime.
*Gold gapped up this morning, ending a 6-month hiatus and signaling renewed interest in diversifying reserves. Gold rose after China’s central bank added bullion to its reserves for the first time in seven months, and the rapid fall of the Syrian government further destabilized the Middle East. It is currently traded at $2650.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th January 2025.


FOMC Minutes Signal Slower Rate Cuts, UK Borrowing Costs Surge, & Global Market Update.



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*The FOMC minutes showed that the Committee expected to be slowing the pace of rate cuts after its decision to trim rates another -25 bps. Following an unexpected emergency rate cut in September, despite there being no immediate crisis, the Fed has since shifted towards a more measured approach, indicating that a slower pace of rate reductions would be “appropriate” by December. The core strategy remains consistent: to bring inflation down. While inflation-related discussions did touch on concerns over US President-elect Trump’s trade taxes and deportation plans, these issues were not the main focus of the inflation debate.
*The Greenback was firmer overnight on reports Trump would declare a state of emergency to get his tariff plans through. It dipped on the ADP report but bounced on the tight jobless claims data. The index had firmed yesterday after Trump denied reports he would soften his tariff plans, and after the strength in the JOLTS numbers Tuesday. Solid 30-year auction results also supported in the afternoon.
*China's inflation data for December showed largely stable consumer prices, with food prices stabilizing (a notable factor given food’s significant weight in the consumer basket) and only modest increases in non-food prices, despite efforts to boost domestic consumption. Producer prices, however, continue to struggle with deflation.
*In the UK, the BRC shop price index fell more sharply than anticipated, with a significant drop in non-food item prices, likely influenced by Black Friday discounts. When combined with sales data, this suggests that UK consumers increased their real-term spending in the fourth quarter, driven by lower prices and promotions.
*Gilts remain under pressure in early trade, with the UK 10-year rate up 2.1 bp at 4.81%. UK 10-year borrowing costs surged to their highest point since the global financial crisis, while the Pound plummeted, as a deepening bond sell-off raised concerns over the Labour government’s ability to meet its self-imposed budget targets. So far in 2025, borrowing costs in the UK have increased at a faster pace than in other major economies, driven by investor fears over the government’s large borrowing requirements and the mounting risk of stagflation.
*Eurozone industrial production rose 1.5% m/m in November. Germany's jobless rate still is very low by European standards, but the overall picture remains pretty gloomy, with political uncertainty and the threat of Trump tariffs not helping.





Financial Markets Performance:


*European stock markets are mixed, with the FTSE100 outperforming and up 0.4%, while the DAX is down -0.2%, after a largely weaker close across Asia. Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost -0.3%, after Chinese inflation numbers.
*The USDIndex is up 0.2% and at 109.17, while Sterling continues to sell off. GBPUSD slumped below 1.2300 on budget angst and as the 10-year Gilt spiked.
*EURUSD slumped to 1.0273 after weak Eurozone data.
*USOIL is slightly down on the day and at USD 73.24 per barrel.
*Gold is unchanged at USD 2662.44 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 7th February 2025.


Global Currency Market Analysis: Key Drivers and NFP's Impact.


The Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar have performed well throughout the week. However, today, the US will release the NFP Employment Change, Average Salary Growth, and Unemployment Rate. As a result, most currencies are likely to witness high volatility throughout today’s US session.


US Dollar


The US Dollar may seem like the worst-performing currency of the week. However, traders should note on Monday the currency opened on a gap measuring more than 1%. Therefore, the US Dollar is only trading 0.60% lower this week and that can easily change with the release of today’s NFP data.


Analysts expect the Non-Farm Payroll figure to read 169,000 which is lower than the 256,000 from the previous month, but more or less, at the average of the past 6 months. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 4.1% and the Average Salary Growth at 0.3%. If the NFP data reads higher than expectations, the US Dollar can quickly increase in value. Particularly, if the unemployment rate falls to 4.00%.


Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that higher trade tariffs could drive inflation. Fed Vice Chair Mr Jefferson added that interest rates should stay unchanged until the full effects of Trump's policies. Mr Jefferson is mainly focusing on the effects of tariffs, immigration, and taxes.


British Pound


The British Pound was the worst-performing currency of the day on Thursday due to pressure from the Bank of England. The downward pressure came from the Monetary Policy Committee. Two members of the board, Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra, supported the adjustment of the cost of borrowing by 50 basis points. Previously, analysts expected only 1 vote. In addition to this, no member took a hawkish stance which also put pressure on the GBP.


The Bank of England also made adjustments to the UK Gross Domestic Product to illustrate a weaker outlook. Analysts also expect inflation to rise in the UK due to increases in national insurance contributions. For this reason, many traders currently hold a bearish bias towards the GBP. The current support level for the GBPUSD can be seen at 1.23567 which is currently 0.65% lower than the current price. However, the exchange rate will mainly be driven by the US Dollar throughout the day.


Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency of the week adding more than 2.10% to the JPY Index. The main price driver pushing the JPY higher is the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy and recent hawkish comments.


Bank of Japan member Mr Tamura stated that the BoJ should raise interest rates to at least 1% by the second half of 2025. He cited ongoing inflation risks, with companies continuing to pass rising raw material and labour costs onto consumers. Tamura warned that if short-term interest rates stay below the neutral level, inflation will likely accelerate further.


The hawkish comments continue to positively influence the Japanese Yen, the best-performing currency of 2025 so far. Many investors are looking to increase their exposure to the Yen, attracted by its safe-haven status and its current low value, which remains 14% below its 2022 level. Check out which Japanese Yen pairs are tradable here!


Key Takeaway points:


* Top Currencies: The Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar led the week, but US NFP data may shake up rankings.
* US Dollar: Despite a mixed performance, a strong NFP report could reverse losses, especially if unemployment drops to 4.0%.
* British Pound Pressure: The BoE's dovish stance and GDP outlook weighed on the GBP, with traders maintaining a bearish bias.
* Japanese Yen Strength: Hawkish BoJ comments and inflation concerns fueled a 2.10% JPY rally, attracting investors seeking a safe-haven asset.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 25th February 2025.


Markets on Edge as Trump’s Tariff Plans Shake Global Trade and Investor Sentiment.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Financial markets continue to experience heightened volatility as US President Donald Trump reaffirms plans to impose tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, a move expected to take effect next week. However, scepticism remains, as such tariffs on essential goods like propane and avocados would have an immediate and visible impact on US consumers. Current polls indicate only 32% of American voters approve of Trump’s handling of inflation, adding further uncertainty to market sentiment.


President Donald Trump announced a one-month delay on tariff hikes for Canadian and Mexican imports, further escalating tensions. Additionally, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports linked to fentanyl production has heightened trade concerns. Market sentiment has been impacted, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropping by 10% in the past month due to fears over inflation and tariffs.


Asian Markets and US-China Tensions


Asian markets suffered significant declines, particularly in Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, as Trump’s new directives on curbing Chinese investments raised concerns. His administration is also pushing for stricter semiconductor export controls, a move that could further strain US-China relations. The latest measures include discussions with Japan and the Netherlands to limit maintenance support for semiconductor equipment used in China.


Despite initial losses, Chinese technology stocks rebounded, with mainland investors injecting over $1 billion into Hong Kong stocks. This underscores Beijing’s commitment to achieving technological self-sufficiency, a priority for President Xi Jinping in the ongoing tech rivalry with the U.S. While Chinese internet giants had recently enjoyed a rally, Trump’s renewed restrictions introduced fresh geopolitical risks, weighing on investor confidence.


US Stock Market Struggles Amid Tariff Uncertainty


Stocks declined, and US Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in over two months as concerns mounted over Trump’s tariff plans and investment restrictions on China. European equity index futures pointed to a weaker open following a selloff in US stocks. Meanwhile, Chinese shares experienced whipsaw movements, and the Dollar weakened for a second consecutive day. With only a month into his presidency, investors are increasingly cautious about Trump’s policies and their potential impact on economic growth. This uncertainty has driven a flight to safe-haven assets, with gold surging 12% since the start of the year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials have reiterated their stance of maintaining current interest rates, citing persistent inflationary pressures.


US stocks continued to slide on Monday following last week’s sharp losses. The S&P 500 dipped 0.5% to 5,983.25, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2% to 19,286.92. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.1% to 43,461.21. Berkshire Hathaway climbed 4.1% after reporting strong operating profits, yet Warren Buffett’s firm remains cautious, holding $334.2 billion in unused cash. Starbucks gained 1.3% after announcing 1,100 corporate job cuts to streamline operations under CEO Brian Niccol.


In Japan, trading houses saw a surge in stock prices after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway signalled plans to increase its holdings. Mitsubishi Corp. led the rally, climbing 9.2%—its biggest gain in a year—while Marubeni Corp. and Mitsui & Co. also posted strong advances. Buffett’s interest in Japanese trading houses underscores their diversification across industries, making them resilient to market fluctuations.


Nvidia’s Earnings and AI Market Disruptions


Nvidia, a major driver of the AI boom, is set to release earnings on Wednesday. The market is watching closely after China’s DeepSeek announced an AI model that rivals US technology without requiring high-end chips. This development has sparked concerns about demand for AI-related infrastructure, causing Nvidia shares to drop 3.1%, weighing on the S&P 500.





Commodities and Corporate Movements


The commodity sector also faced significant developments, particularly in the cobalt market. A surprise four-month export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world’s largest cobalt producer, sent shockwaves through the industry. The move aims to curb global oversupply, but it has also raised concerns about supply chain disruptions in the battery and alloy industries.


Gold Prices Retreat as Investors Take Profits


Gold prices eased after hitting fresh record highs, as investors took profits amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and growing haven demand. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,937.65 per ounce. Gold-backed ETFs saw their largest net inflows since 2022, fueled by market uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and economic outlook. Lower Treasury yields also contributed to gold’s strength after a well-received two-year note auction. Analysts from ANZ Banking Group noted increasing physical flows into gold ETFs as investors seek safe-haven assets.


US crude oil gained 52 cents to $71.22 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed 0.7% to $74.75 per barrel. In currency markets, the US dollar weakened slightly against the Japanese yen at 149.50, while the Euro strengthened to $1.0473. Bitcoin, often viewed as a “Trump trade,” also slid amid the uncertainty.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th March 2025.


Will Gold Continue Its Bullish Trend or Is Buying Too Risky?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The price momentum of Gold will partially depend on this week’s Central Banks guidance on their monetary policy. So far, the price of Gold has risen in value due to expectations of further interest rate cuts in 2025 and recession fears. Additionally, significantly higher demand from retail investors has contributed to its upward momentum.


Will Gold Maintain Momentum?


In the last quarter of 2024, economists and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan set a prediction that Gold will reach $3,000. The $3,000 target set by US institutions has been a key talking point. This video from early December is a key example. So far in 2025 alone, the price of Gold has risen 13.60% and more than 31% over the past 12 months.


So far, the price momentum does not show signs of slowing nor is the bullish momentum triggering indications that the price is overbought. Overbought indications can be triggered through the RSI, divergence or price rejection patterns. Neither of these are currently forming. However, traders should stay vigilant, as the sharp price increase may encourage investors to capitalize on profits by selling at higher level.





The Impact of This Week’s Central Banks and the Federal Reserve Meetings on Gold


This week the market and Gold traders are paying close attention to the Central Bank Meetings around the globe. Particularly, traders are focusing on the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank. One of the key reasons Gold is increasing in demand is due to the uncertainty of Trump’s trade policies, recession fears and also interest rate cuts.


Nonetheless, this week the heads of the above-mentioned central banks will comment on interest rates in the foreseeable future, the state of the economy and their views on the new trade policy. If the Fed's comments on the economy remain positive and a hawkish stance is taken on rates, Gold can witness short-term pressure. Short-term pressure could trigger the instrument to form a retracement. A retracement based on the 75-period Moving Average and 100-period SMA could fall between $2,941.60 and $2,961.75.





Meanwhile, Gold may also face pressure from the European Commission's large-scale rearmament plans, enhancing the region's investment appeal. The fiscal policy’s expansionary appeal could ignite economic growth and a lesser need for the ECB to cut its rates. Investors are also closely monitoring the German parliament's vote on a proposed €500 billion special fund aimed at infrastructure and defence projects. The higher investor sentiment can also be seen via the European stock market. The German DAX has risen 4.20% over the past week, the Euro Stoxx 50 3.00% and the IBEX by 3.06%.


Therefore, the central bank’s comments on the monetary policy and the resilience of the economy can be vital for Gold. Lastly, President Trump and President Putin are also scheduled to speak later this afternoon regarding Ukraine. If the talks bear fruit the market’s higher market sentiment may also pressure Gold.


XAUUSD - Technical Analysis
The price action of the XAUUSD will depend on this week’s events and the US Dollar Index. Currently, the US Dollar Index is trading 0.08% higher but not high enough to pressure Gold. The VIX, a well-known risk indicator, is trading 1.10% lower which is also indicating an improved appetite so far.


The latest UFTC report shows that real-money-backed bullish positions total 215.627K, compared to 33.467K for bearish positions. Over the past week, buyers reduced their contracts by 1.429K, while sellers cut theirs by 1.016K, signalling the continuation of the current trend. The asset also remains above the VWAP and with positive cumulative delta statistics.


On the 2-hour chart, the price remains in the bullish zone of the RSI and the MACD. In addition to this, the price is currently trading 1.85% higher than the 75-period EMA which also indicates buyers are controlling the market. On the 3-minute timeframe, the price swings continue to form mainly higher highs and lows, as well as trade above the 200-period SMA.


By evaluating this data and indications, the price keeps its bullish bias. However, if the price falls below $3,009.80, indications in the short term may change.


Key Takeaway Points:


* Gold’s Momentum: Gold has surged 13.6% in 2025, driven by interest rate cut expectations, recession fears, and strong retail demand.
* Central Banks’ Impact: This week’s Fed, BoJ, BoE, and SNB meetings could influence Gold, especially if a hawkish stance is taken. Particularly, if the central banks also predict a resilient economy.
* Technical Strength: Gold remains in a bullish trend with no overbought signals, but traders should watch for potential retracements.
* Geopolitical Factors: European rearmament plans and Trump-Putin talks may impact Gold’s demand and market sentiment.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 8th April 2025.


Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.


However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.


In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.


Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.


China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’


Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.


If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.


In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.


Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.


Trump Talks Tough on EU Too


Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’


The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.





Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama


Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.


The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.


Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts


Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.


Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.





Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.


However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.


In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.


Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.


Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist


With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 04th March 2025.


Tariffs and OPEC+ Drive Oil Prices Lower.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Crude Oil prices fell 0.70% on Tuesday declining closer to the asset’s main support level. OPEC’s latest announcement has been one of the main drivers of lower prices. OPEC, which produces 40% of the world’s Crude Oil, surprisingly has increased oil production. However, other economic factors are also triggering a lower demand.


OPEC Increases Supply Pressuring Prices


OPEC+ confirms it will increase production and market output in 2025 despite prices declining for six consecutive weeks. The move from OPEC is primarily driven by pressure from the US administration to not purposely look to lower production in order to keep prices high.


OPEC+ will boost oil production by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, causing crude prices to drop. The move has become possible with Russia expecting the Ukraine-Russia conflict to end in 2025 and the US’s more favourable approach towards Russia and Saudi Arabia. This marks the first of several monthly increases, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026 after a two-year pause.


The higher output will increase supply and can significantly change the balance between supply and demand. As a result, Crude Oil prices have fallen, particularly as economic data globally has taken a hit over the past month. Over the past six weeks, Crude Oil prices have fallen by more than 10%. However, the move by OPEC is related solely to the supply within the market. Simultaneously, trade wars are also worrying traders about how demand may change in the upcoming months.





US Turn Up The Heat on Trade Wars


The US tariffs on Mexico and Canada are now officially active, taking the level of tariffs to its highest level since the 1980s. President Trump has also advised the US to add a further 10% tariff on China in addition to the 10% announced in January. As a result, experts believe the global economy is likely to witness shockwaves in the short to medium term. This can also be seen in the stock market which has fallen 5% over the past 3 weeks.


The economic slowdown is catching up with rising inflation and tariffs which are put into place. Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next moves is growing with some economists advising the Fed may be pressured into taking earlier. In response to the additional tariffs, China is vowing to take countermeasures to protect its producers. Warren Buffett called the tariffs an extra tax on people with little economic benefit.


Weaker economic activity and a lower risk appetite within the market are known to pressure prices significantly. During the previous Trump administration and ‘trade tariff policy’ the price of Crude oil fell 13%.


Crude Oil - Technical Analysis


The price of Crude Oil in the longer term is obtaining indication the price may decline. On a monthly chart, the price forms a clear descending triangle which is known to hold a bearish bias. On the 2-hour chart, the price is also trading below the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average, below the VWAP and below the neutral areas of most oscillators. For this reason, momentum is indicating downward price movement.


However, the main concern for bearish traders is the support level which is sitting at $66.70 per barrel. The support level is currently 1.50% points away from the current price. In order for sell signals to materialise in the short term, traders will be monitoring if the price can break below $67.69.


[imghttps://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=images/USOILDaily_Internal_6836b26f5677492bbaad085ce4b.or iginal.png[/img]


Key Takeaway Points:


* OPEC+ plans to boost production in 2025, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026, pushing crude prices lower.
* The US imposes record-high tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, raising concerns about global economic stability and market declines. Crude Oil prices decline as a result.
* Rising tariffs and inflation add uncertainty, with economists speculating the Fed may act sooner than expected.
* Technical analysis shows a bearish trend, but the price of Crude Oil is also nearing the key support levels at $66.70 per barrel.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 19th March 2025.


Stock Markets Mixed as Investors Await US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Asian stock markets showed mixed performance on Wednesday as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Global markets remain on edge, with traders looking for guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on future monetary policy.


US stock futures edged higher, while oil prices declined for a second consecutive session.


Yen Weakens as Bank of Japan Holds Rates Steady


The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, signalling concerns over global trade tensions while acknowledging domestic conditions that support further hikes. The central bank added trade policies to its risk outlook, reflecting heightened uncertainty as President Trump's tariff threats loom.


Despite strong wage growth and inflation at 4%, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda appears cautious, suggesting the next rate hike may follow a six-month pace—possibly in June or July. Meanwhile, Japan’s latest trade data showed a surplus in February, with exports rising over 11%. The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, in line with expectations. Similarly, the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to maintain its current rate stance.


The Japanese Yen continued its decline against the US dollar after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) opted to keep its policy interest rate unchanged, citing ongoing global trade concerns and domestic economic trends, including rising wages and inflation. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cut rates starting in September, keeping the rate gap with Japan-wide.





The Yen slipped as much as 0.4% to 150 per dollar, extending losses from last week’s five-month high. The decision was widely expected, as all economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated that the BOJ would maintain its current policy stance.


In its latest statement, the BOJ highlighted trade policies and global economic conditions as key risks to its outlook. This marks a shift from previous statements, reflecting heightened uncertainty in global markets. Over the past year, Japan’s central bank has raised interest rates three times since ending its negative interest rate policy, the last of its kind worldwide.


Key Focus: US Federal Reserve’s Rate Decision


All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and Powell’s press conference, where investors hope to gain insight into future rate moves. The dot plot forecast is expected to align with December’s projections, suggesting two 25-basis-point rate cuts per year through mid-2027. Analysts anticipate rate reductions in June and December 2025, though Powell is likely to emphasize a measured approach toward the 2% inflation target.


US stock markets saw losses across major indices:


*S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 5,614.66.
*The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.6% to 41,581.31.
*Nasdaq Composite slid 1.7% to 17,504.12.


Tech Stocks Under Pressure


Tesla dropped 5.3%, weighed down by slowing electric vehicle (EV) sales and rising competition. China’s BYD unveiled an ultra-fast charging system, intensifying pressure on Tesla’s market dominance.


Meanwhile, Alphabet (Google's parent company) lost 2.2% after announcing a $32 billion acquisition of cybersecurity firm Wiz, its largest-ever deal, aimed at strengthening cloud computing and AI capabilities.


The broader technology sector continued to struggle amid concerns over overvaluation and trade tensions.


*Nvidia dropped 3.3%, even as it hosted its "AI Woodstock" event.
*Super Micro Computer tumbled 9.6%.
*Palantir Technologies lost 4%.


Investors remain cautious about former President Donald Trump’s trade policies, which could impact US economic growth. Tariff uncertainty adds pressure on the Federal Reserve, as lower interest rates encourage borrowing but could also fuel inflation concerns.


Oil Prices Decline as Market Awaits Fed Decision


Oil prices slipped for a second straight session, pressured by rising US crude inventories and persistent concerns over global trade tensions.


*Brent crude dropped 0.7%, trading near $70 per barrel.
*West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovered around $66 per barrel.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 4.6 million barrel build in US crude stockpiles last week, although inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, declined. Official EIA data is due later Wednesday.


Market sentiment remains fragile as investors assess OPEC+ supply increases and weak demand in China, compounding concerns over a potential economic slowdown. Geopolitical tensions remain in focus, particularly in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Biden administration is closely monitoring Iranian involvement in Houthi attacks, while Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected US calls for a ceasefire, instead limiting strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th April 2025.


Global Markets Rattled by Tariffs and Bond Sell-Off as Volatility Surges.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Markets around the globe were hit hard on Wednesday, as sweeping US tariffs took effect and fears of a global economic slowdown intensified. From bond markets to equities, investors were left scrambling amid heightened uncertainty and growing recession risks. Volatility levels surged as investors responded to rising yields, falling oil prices, and a weakening yuan. Government bond yields surged, treasuries were hit hard, equities tumbled, and oil hit fresh multi-year lows as investors scrambled to assess the impact of sweeping trade measures.


Tariff Uncertainty Sparks Global Sell-Off


Markets were on edge as the White House confirmed a 104% tax targeting Chinese imports, effective at midnight. While the US administration indicated openness to negotiations with over 70 nations, China has yet to engage. Instead, Beijing vowed to ‘fight to the end’ and warned it has ample tools to offset any external shocks.


In a bold move, China allowed the offshore yuan to weaken to a record low of 7.4153 per dollar, signalling its willingness to absorb external shocks. Goldman Sachs warned that China might retaliate by selling US assets, including Treasuries, potentially exacerbating the sell-off.





Bond Market Under Siege as Yields Surge


Investors dumped long-duration US government bonds in droves, driving yields to multi-year highs. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly soared above 5% the highest level since 1998, while the 10-year hit 4.51% before easing back to 4.42%. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield fell on haven demand and bets for future rate cuts, steepening the curve sharply. Bond yields move inversely to prices. Stock markets came under renewed pressure.


The curve between 2s and 10s spiked by 14 basis points to 55 bps. This aggressive repricing reflected deepening fears of inflation, slower growth, and rising uncertainty over the Fed's policy path. The sharp rise in long-dated yields caused a steepening in the yield curve across Europe, with bond prices falling as investors priced in higher inflation and slower global growth.


RBNZ Cuts Rates, Signals Further Easing


New Zealand’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, marking the fifth consecutive easing. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cited mounting global trade risks and downside pressures on both growth and inflation.


‘The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for economic activity,’ said the RBNZ. ‘These developments create downside risks... The Committee has scope to lower the OCR further as appropriate.’Markets now expect rates to fall below the 3% floor previously signalled by the central bank.


Global Repercussions: Stocks and Currencies Hit


In Europe, German bonds opened lower, and a steepening yield curve emerged as longer-term yields rose sharply. Futures tracking the Stoxx Europe 600 slumped 2.9%, mirroring weakness in US and Asian equity markets.


Japanese stocks fell sharply, with the Topix dropping 3.6%, while the yen settled near ¥145 per dollar. Analysts described earlier gains as a ‘head fake,’ noting that ‘fast money’ had resumed bearish bets amid worsening trade tensions.


Chinese equities managed to rebound, driven by strength in technology and chip stocks. The CSI 300 index swung from a 1.7% decline to close up 0.3%, led by SMIC (+6%) and Foxconn Industrial Internet.


Wall Street’s major indices plunged before partially trimming losses late in the session. The S&P 500 closed down 1.57%, the Nasdaq tumbled 2.15%, and the Dow slipped 0.84%. Earlier gains of over 4% were quickly reversed as investors grew wary of systemic risks.


This marked the fourth consecutive session with a trading range exceeding 5%, a rare occurrence seen only during periods of extreme stress like March 2020, October 1987, and the 2008 financial crisis.


The VIX volatility index jumped 10.6% to 52.01, reflecting the high level of investor anxiety.





Oil Crashes to Pandemic Lows, Gold Recovers
Oil markets extended their dramatic decline as traders braced for weaker global demand. Brent crude dropped 4.1% to $60.26—a four-year low—while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $56.30. Gold, meanwhile, briefly dipped but managed to rebound above $3040 per ounce.


USDIndex Dips, Currency Volatility Rises
The US Dollar Index (DXY) swung throughout the session, at 102.25—down from a session high of 103.441. Currency markets were jittery amid safe-haven flows and shifting interest rate expectations.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.