HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 18th October 2024.


Global Markets Steady as China’s Economic Data Surprises, Gold Hits New Record.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


As the US economy continues to show resilience, traders further reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the remaining meetings of 2024. Strong US retail sales data for September exceeded forecasts, highlighting sustained consumer spending, which is powering economic growth.


Asia & European Sessions:


*A rally in risk and some unwinding of haven trades hit Treasuries.
*A stronger than expected September retail sales report weighed on Treasuries at it furthered expectations the FOMC will reduce rates at a more moderate pace into year end. And it added to prospects the Fed may only cut one more time this year with the November implied rate at -22 bps and the December contract at -41 bps.
*Asia equities rose earlier today as the central bank introduced new lending programs to boost corporate share buybacks and equity purchases. However Chinese equities edged down after official data showed slowing economic growth at 4.6% in the Q3 from 4.7% in Q2, underscoring investor uncertainty over government stimulus measures first announced in September.
*Netflix reported net income of $2.36 billion, roughly 6% above Wall Street predictions. Netflix saw a stronger-than-anticipated revenue boost in the latest quarter, alongside solid subscriber (5.1mln) growth, even with fewer blockbuster releases.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex climbed to 103.60,supported by widening rate and growth differentials. The downshift in expectations on Fed cuts, this week’s easing, albeit cautious, from the ECB, the chance for an aggressive -50 bp easing from the BoC, and the unwinding of BoJ rate hike outlooks have been supportive.
*The USDJPY broke to 150 level, the best since the end of July. It could rally further given the less dovish view on the Fed and if there are no signs of MoF intervention.
*The GBPUSD has stabilized and firmed slightly to 1.3060, but is largely recovering from the drop to 1.2990 which is the weakest since mid-August.
The EURUSD has slumped to 1.0807 and is the weakest since the end of July. Concurrently, USDCAD has risen to 1.3795, the highest since early August.
*Gold prices hit a record high, extending a long-running bullish trend as investors sought safe-haven assets. Gold spot prices rose to $2,713. The rise in gold prices, fueled by inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, has been consistent since late 2022.
*Bitcoin also saw gains, rising to $68,350, with some investors viewing it as a hedge similar to gold.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 13th November 2024.


Stocks Cautious Amid Upcoming US CPI & Yen Pressures.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


“Trump trade” has boosted the US Dollar and US stocks, but Trump’s policies may have less favorable effects on global assets. Trump’s plan to raise tariffs is expected to negatively impact economies worldwide, especially exporters like China.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Stock markets are turning cautious as markets prepare for Trump’s presidency. Growing concern that tariffs will disrupt global trade and fuel inflation has been denting sentiment.
*Indexes declined and Japan and Hong Kong, European markets are posting modest gains and US futures are in the red, as yields rise.
*Wall Street stumbled as the Trump trade ran out of steam after 5 straight days of gains on the S&P500 and Dow, along with 4 days of gains on the NASDAQ to more record highs.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The Yen weakened beyond 155 against the US Dollar for the first time since July, raising concerns that Japan might intervene in the currency market to curb its depreciation. A Bloomberg poll of 53 economists last month suggested intervention could be triggered at 150, with a median forecast of 160.
*A spike in Treasury yields is pressuring the Yen, with the two-year yield hitting its highest mark since July, driven by Trump’s economic agenda boosting US rates and the reduced cost of hedging due to the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts.
*The upcoming US data on CPI, PPI, and Retail sales could accelerate the Yen’s decline if the Ministry of Finance doesn’t step in with verbal warnings. Prolonged yen weakness may push the Bank of Japan to consider earlier rate hikes.
*Concerns over sticky high inflation ahead of the CPI report and concerns over potentially inflationary aspects of Trump’s fiscal policies exacerbated selling.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex is settling above 106.
*Oil declined -0.09% to $67.98 per barrel with Trump’s “drill baby drill” reverberating.
*Gold lost -0.82% to $2597.26 per ounce as interest rates surged. The rising Dollar also impacted commodities.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 2nd December 2024.


Dollar Strength Ahead of Key Employment Data Pressures Gold!



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


*Analysts expect the US Unemployment Rate to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. The US Dollar Index opens higher on Monday after declining for 5 consecutive days.
*According to experts, there is a 67% chance of a rate cut in December from the Fed. However, the decision depends on the NFP and next week’s inflation rate.
*France’s parliament clash on Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s tweaks to the 2025 budget. Le Pen threatens to support a vote of no confidence. European indices decline.
*Oil prices drop back below $70 per barrel supporting US stocks.


Gold – A Stronger US Dollar Pressures Gold!


The price of Gold sharply fell over 1.00% in the opening hours of the Asian and European session taking the price down to Thursday’s support level. The main reason for the decline is the rise in the price of the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index opened on a 0.30% bullish price gap and rose a further 0.23% thereafter. The price of Gold this week will largely be dependent on the US employment data and its effect on the Federal Fund Rate.





Employment data will be made public throughout the week, marking the final update before the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting. This includes tomorrow’s JOLTS Job Openings, Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change and Friday’s NFP data. Notably, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose from 2.1% to 2.3%, with the core index climbing from 2.7% to 2.8%. Strong employment figures could strengthen the case against further monetary policy easing, casting doubt on the likelihood of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December.


While most experts currently anticipate this adjustment, they expect regulators to pause early next year to evaluate the potential impacts of trade policy decisions announced by newly elected President Donald Trump’s administration. If the likelihood of a rate cut remains high, the price of Gold is likely to find support. Whereas, strong employment data and a pause will pressure Gold and support the Dollar further.


Due to today’s decline, the price of gold shows a bearish bias as the price falls below the trend-line and the 100-bar Moving Average. However, the current momentum will determine whether the price obtains a short-term signal indicating a correction or decline. If the price increases above $2632.62 a short-term signal indicating a correction is likely to arise. If the price falls below $2,626.45, the signal will indicate the continuation of downward momentum.


EURUSD – The Euro Falls As European Politics Trigger Lower Confidence.


The worst performing currency of the day is the Euro which is declining against all currencies. The Euro index currently trades 0.58% lower mainly due to political tension in France and Germany.





Finance Minister Antoine Armand dismissed Marine Le Pen’s push for artificial budget deadlines, even as the far-right leader signaled readiness to topple the government this week. Le Pen’s party has threatened a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Barnier. This is due to the PM adjusting the 2025 budget to include inflation-linked pension indexing and other demands.


S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMIs are expected to stay the same in Germany (43.2 points) and the eurozone (45.2 points). Meanwhile, markets are awaiting October’s data on the Eurozone unemployment rate, currently at 6.3%, along with a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, who may provide updates on the central bank’s monetary policy plans.


While experts believe the ECB is unlikely to make a sharp policy easing, some board members, including Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau, have suggested that a 50-basis-point rate cut in December remains a possibility.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 2nd January 2025.


The USD Retraces But Can The AUDUSD Correct To 0.62320?



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


The AUDUSD trades at a 27-month low as the Australian Dollar struggled to maintain momentum in December and the Dollar has risen since the US elections. However, the Australian Dollar is increasing in value during this morning’s Asian Session due to positive Chinese Manufacturing data. Will the AUDUSD hold its bullish momentum to the mean (0.62340) of the most recent price range?


AUDUSD - The Australian Dollar continues to struggle for sustained momentum!


The primary reason for the increase in the Australian Dollar is the positive Manufacturing Data from China. The performance of China is known to be closely linked to the performance of Asian currencies such as the JPY but also the AUD and NZD. The Australian Dollar is the best performing currency of the day and is increasing in value against all currencies except against the JPY where it moves sideways.





The US Dollar on the other hand is performing relatively poorly, and is retracing after yesterday’s gains. However, traders should note that the bearish price movement is relatively weak compared to the recent Dollar trend. The US Dollar Index rose in value for 4 consecutive weeks before retracing this morning. Therefore traders need to be cautious that the Dollar potentially may regain momentum. However, if the Dollar continues to decline a potential target may be seen at the average price of the previous range. The previous range formed between the 19th to the 30th December with an average price of 0.62320.


The US Dollar Index reached its highest level since November 6th, 2022


Experts anticipate that Trump will reinforce protectionist policies, potentially reigniting active trade wars as he has done in the past. He previously announced plans to raise import tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and Canada, while excluding European imports. Shifts in foreign trade are also expected to influence the US Federal Reserve's rhetoric. The December median interest rate forecasts indicate only two 25 basis point cuts in 2025, with any easing of policy not expected to begin before June.


The hawkish Federal Reserve is able to support the US Dollar in the longer term and potentially tariffs may trigger a lower risk sentiment. The lower risk sentiment also may trigger a higher demand for the US Dollar. However, this would depend on the upcoming Trump policies.


In the short-term, the US Dollar will also be influenced by this afternoon’s US Weekly Unemployment Claims release and the Final Manufacturing PMI. However, higher volatility is not likely to return until tomorrow’s trading sessions.


AUDUSD - Technical Analysis


In terms of technical analysis, the price of the AUDUSD is trading within a retracement of the day’s impulse wave. However, the price continues to remain at a lower high and lower low. In addition to this, the AUDUSD is also trading below the main Moving Averages and below the neutral level on most oscillators. Therefore, if bullish momentum is regained, traders potentially may focus on a correction to 0.62320 at first. If the price rises above 0.62142, the price will see stronger signals indicating a correction to this level.





Conclusion:


*The US Dollar Index rose to its highest price since November 6th 2022 before the markets closed for New Years Day.
*The Australian Dollar is the top-performing currency in this morning's Asian session, recovering from its decline in December.
*Positive Chinese Manufacturing data boosts Asian currencies including the AUD, NZD
*If the price rises above 0.62142, it will signal a stronger correction to this level.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 29th January 2025.


Market Recap: Treasury Yields Rise as Tech Stocks Rebound.


Asia & European Sessions:


* Markets had largely recovered from Monday’s selloff triggered by fears over AI competition from China’s DeepSeek. Dip buyers took advantage of the NASDAQ’s sharp decline, leading to a rebound of 2.03%, which erased much of Monday’s 3.07% drop. The S&P500 climbed 0.92% after shedding 1.46% the previous day, while the Dow inched up 0.31%.
* Asian stocks and European equity futures increased following Wall Street’s tech-driven recovery. Japanese, Australian, and Indian markets saw gains, though many regional exchanges remained closed for Lunar New Year celebrations.
* Nvidia regained nearly half of its 17% plunge, which had marked the largest single-day market cap loss in history.
* As investor anxiety eased, the VIX volatility index dropped 8.66% to 16.35, after briefly touching 21 on Monday.
* Positive earnings from Visa, Royal Caribbean, and Boeing helped lift sentiment, though JetBlue and General Motors disappointed.
* Market attention is now turning to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and earnings reports from major tech firms. The Fed is universally expected to leave rates unchanged at a 4.375% mid-range, taking a pause after three consecutive easings totalling -100 bps since the jumbo -50 bps in September. The resilient economy and still sticky inflation do not give the Fed room to credibly continue with its policy course. And we do not expect any surprises from Chair Powell's press conference where he should stress the economy remains solid, with risks to inflation and employment generally in balance.
* Upcoming earnings: Microsoft, Tesla, Meta, IBM, ASML, ADP and Apple on Thursday.


Financial Markets Performance:


* USOIL rose 0.97% to $73.50 per barrel, while gold climbed 0.88% to $2,764 per ounce.
* Aussie weakened, while 3-year bond yields dropped 5 bps on expectations of monetary easing. Australia’s core inflation cooled more than expected in the Q4 2024, prompting speculation that the RBA may soon pivot to rate cuts.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th February 2025.


UK Unemployment Rate Falls and The Pound Spikes Upwards.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The British Pound spikes upwards against all currencies as the UK releases its employment data. However, the latest employment data release does not give long-term confidence as the UK continues to see a higher possibility of economic stagnation in 2025. Can the GBP maintain momentum?


UK Releases Latest Employment Data!


The UK employment data had its positive and negative points. The Monthly Unemployment Claims rose 22,000 which is at a 3 month high, and higher than analysts’ previous expectations. This is known to be negative for the British Pound. However, the UK also saw some positive data which investors are clinging onto. The UK Unemployment Rate fell for the first time since October 2024.


The UK Unemployment Rate, to the surprise of analysts, fell from 4.5% to 4.4%. Lastly, the Average UK Salaries Index rose to 6.00%, the highest in 13 months and higher than previous expectations. This is the main reason why the GBP is increasing in value. That said, the Bank of England and economists continue to expect the UK to witness stagnation in 2025.





The British Pound


The British Pound is now one of the best-performing currencies of the day so far. The US Dollar and Japanese Yen are also strongly increasing in value. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mr Bailey, is due to speak at 09:30 GMT and is likely to comment on the latest employment data.


Previously, Bailey described the UK’s economic growth as “static,” despite stronger-than-expected Q4 2024 data—0.1% growth instead of the forecasted –0.1% quarterly and 1.4% annually versus the expected 1.1%. Meanwhile, the BoE revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 0.75% from 1.0% in November. Traders are also hoping Governor Bailey will comment on the possible future rate cuts.


Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2), the UK will release January inflation data. Analysts expect the annual CPI to rise from 2.5% to 2.8%, while monthly prices may drop by 0.3% after a similar increase in December. The Core CPI is projected to climb from 3.2% to 3.6%.


When evaluating the GBP Index, the GBP is currently trading 0.95% higher in 2025. However, the upward price movement is largely due to last week’s Gross Domestic Product which beat expectations. The performance of the GBP will also depend on whether the US imposes tariffs. Additionally, pressure on the UK to increase defence spending could further strain the country's already scrutinized budget.


GBPUSD - Technical Analysis and Price Condition


The GBPUSD is trading above the main moving averages on the 2-hour timeframe and is trading high on most oscillators. These factors indicate that the buyers are currently controlling momentum, but traders are concerned about two factors.


The first is that the GBPUSD is struggling to break above the 1.26300 level and the fact that both the USD and GBP is simultaneously increasing in value. As both currencies are increasing in value, technical analysts view the price action as conflicting. On the 5-minute chart, the GBPUSD is trading at the 200-bar average price movement indicating a neutral signal. This also follows the concerns of traders that the price action is conflicting.





If the price breaks above 1.25918, the GBPUSD may witness sell signals materialize. However, if the price breaks above 1.26200, buy signals may arise which will also be in line with the indications on the 2-hour timeframe.


Key Takeaway Points:


* GBP rises as the UK employment data lifts GBP, but stagnation concerns remain.
* UK Salaries hit a 13-month high, boosting the Pound.
* The Bank of England Governor, Mr Bailey may hint at future rate cuts and advises the UK will witness economic stagnation.
* The key risks for the GBP remain inflation data, US tariffs, and UK defence spending pressure.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.
Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 11th March 2025.


Recession Fears Grow as Market Sell-Off Deepens.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Recession fears escalated following weekend comments from President Donald Trump, who described the US as being in a "period of transition" when questioned about economic risks. Concerns over tariffs and their global economic impact have heightened uncertainty and weakened investor confidence. A JPMorgan model recently indicated a 31% market-implied probability of a US recession, while a similar Goldman Sachs model suggests rising recession risks. Meanwhile, disappointing earnings guidance from major firms, including big tech companies, has fueled a bearish market outlook.


Broader market fears are compounding the downturn. Investors remain wary of economic recession signals, exacerbated by trade uncertainties and shifting fiscal policies. The S&P 500 has erased its post-election gains, and speculative assets—including crypto-linked stocks and ETFs—are facing aggressive sell-offs.


Stock Market Plunge: Major Indexes in the Red


The NASDAQ tumbled -4.0%, while the S&P 500 dropped -2.70%, and the Dow Jones declined -2.08%, pushing major indexes into negative territory for the year. Global equities also suffered sharp declines.





Amid this turmoil, Treasury yields fell as investors sought safe-haven assets, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in June. The 2-year yield dropped -11.6 bps to 3.883%, while the 10-year yield slipped -8.5 bps to 4.218%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) firmed slightly to 103.926, recovering from its session low of 103.559, the weakest level since November.





Commodities Struggle Amid Market Volatility


Despite Wall Street’s sell-off, gold remained flat at $2,888 per ounce, failing to gain traction as a safe-haven asset. Oil prices also dipped by -0.26% to $65.86 per barrel, reflecting broader economic concerns.


Oil tracked equity markets and risk assets amid concerns that tariffs and other measures could stunt growth in the world’s largest economy. Oil has fallen nearly 20% from its mid-January high as Trump’s tariff hikes and push to cut federal spending darken the economic outlook for the largest oil producer and consumer. Other bearish factors include OPEC+ plans to increase supply and weakening demand in China, where refiners are being urged to shift away from producing key fuels like diesel and gasoline.


US Energy Secretary Chris Wright provided some bullish sentiment, stating that the Trump administration is prepared to enforce US sanctions on Iranian oil production. He made the remarks at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston on Monday.


Executives from major oil producers—including Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, and Saudi Aramco—expressed strong support for Trump’s energy dominance agenda at the gathering. Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy projected oil prices to range between $60 and $80 per barrel over the next few years.





Key US Economic Data Releases This Week


Investors are bracing for significant economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains focused on inflation, Tuesday’s JOLTS report could drive market reactions amid heightened recession concerns.


In December, job openings declined -556K to 7.6 million, near the lowest level since January 2021. The opening rate has also fallen to 4.5%, down from 5.3% a year ago. Meanwhile, the quit rate—a key measure of labour market confidence—held at 2.0%, compared to 3.0% at its peak.


Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Shift


Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Shift
Fed funds futures indicate expectations for three quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, as economic slowdown concerns overshadow inflation fears. The futures market now anticipates the first rate cut in June, with the implied rate reflecting -30 bps in cuts. September pricing suggests -59 bps, while December signals -78 bps in total easing. However, the Fed remains in its blackout period ahead of its March 18-19 meeting.


Tech Stocks Hit Hard as Nasdaq 100 Falls 3.8%
The Nasdaq 100 suffered its worst single-day decline since October 2022, falling -3.8%. At intraday lows, the index was down -4.7%, erasing more than $1 trillion in market value.


Key factors driving the sell-off include tariff-related uncertainty, declining confidence in AI spending, and disappointing inflation and labour data. The so-called "Magnificent 7" tech stocks, which led the recent bull market, experienced steep losses.


Among the biggest losers were:


Tesla (-15.4%) – its worst day since September 2020 amid falling sales and concerns over CEO Elon Musk’s focus on the company.
MicroStrategy (-16.7%)
AppLovin (-12%)
Palantir (-10.1%)
Atlassian (-9.6%)


Broader Market Impact: Treasury Yields Drop as Safe-Haven Demand Rises


As recession fears mount, Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield hitting its lowest level this year. This decline reflects investors' growing preference for safer assets.


On the risk-asset front, Bitcoin plummeted to nearly $77,000, marking its lowest level since November, as investors moved away from speculative assets amid economic uncertainty.


Cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been hit hard. Among the biggest losers were two leveraged ETFs tied to Bitcoin-holding firm MicroStrategy, both of which dropped over 30% in a single day. Additionally, an ETF doubling the daily returns of Robinhood Markets Inc.—a favoured brokerage among crypto traders—plummeted 40%. Leveraged Bitcoin funds fell approximately 20%, while those focused on Ethereum declined 26% amid the broader digital asset selloff.


The downturn highlights growing uncertainty in the crypto market, particularly as speculation surrounding regulatory policies and economic conditions intensifies. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies initially surged post-election, driven by optimism over potential policy shifts.


With key economic reports and the Fed meeting approaching, markets remain on edge. Recession fears, tech sell-offs, and shifting rate-cut expectations continue to drive volatility. Investors will closely watch upcoming data releases to gauge economic resilience and potential Federal Reserve actions in the coming months.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.