HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 17th October 2024.


Stocks steady ahead of ECB, BTC Up, Oil below $70.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*Wall Street, Treasuries, the US Dollar, and Gold all gained yesterday amid a variety of factors. Earnings beats, rate cut expectations, growth concerns, geopolitical risks, some stability in oil all contributed. The market continues to price for -25 bp rate cuts in November and December.
*The Dow bounced 0.79% to 43,077 to its 38th record high of the year. Financials helped pace after more earnings beats, this time from JPM. Weakness in some tech shares, including ASML, limited the advance in the S&P500 and NASDAQ.
*Asian shares predominantly rose today following stronger-than-expected earnings reports from major companies like Morgan Stanley and United Airlines. Chinese markets lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures.
*European stocks are expected to have a lackluster opening as traders await a decision from the ECB regarding monetary policy.
*The rally in Chinese shares lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures. The CSI 300 in China reversed a rally of up to 1.3% after officials revealed plans to expand support for “white list” projects to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) from the previously deployed 2.23 trillion yuan.
*ECB Preview: with headline inflation below target and signs that services price inflation has peaked, the ECB’s focus has switched from inflation risks to growth concerns. The flurry of comments from ECB officials over the past week have pretty much confirmed that Lagarde will deliver another 25 bp cut on Thursday. We expect the ECB to cut again in December, although the central bank head may once again stop short of committing to another move just yet. Even if the ECB cuts rates by a further 50 bp this year, policy settings will remain restrictive and the “end-rate” of the current easing cycle is likely to be higher than markets expected initially and clearly above the low point of the last easing cycle. That will likely keep bonds volatile.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex climbed to 103.55, a third straight session over 103 and is up 3 handles from the 100.79 close on September 30. The rally broken the 200-day SMA.
*Oil dipped below the $70.00 per barrel. Energy prices have generally been influenced by oil market fluctuations, particularly as fears diminish over potential Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities, which could disrupt exports to China and other regions. Additionally, concerns about demand strength amid China’s economic slowdown have impacted oil prices.
*Bitcoin rallied with markets viewing the climb as a sign that markets anticipate a victory for pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.
*Gold rose to $2685 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 12th November 2024.


Market Buzz: Trump Trade Impact!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


“Trump trade” has boosted the US Dollar and US stocks, but Trump’s policies may have less favorable effects on global assets. Trump’s plan to raise tariffs is expected to negatively impact economies worldwide, especially exporters like China.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Bitcoin Surge! Bitcoin broke $90K, driven by Trump trade once again. Bitcoin is up roughly 110% in 2024, helped by robust demand for dedicated US ETFs, interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and Trump’s cryptofriendly agenda.
*Crypto market capitalization has exceeded its pandemic-era peak, reaching $3.1 trillion. Traders are betting on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end, according to data from the Deribit exchange.
*Open interest — or outstanding contracts — for CME Group Inc. futures for Bitcoin and second-ranked Ether (ETHUSD) scaled records on Monday, a sign of growing engagement by US institutional investors.
*Asian shares dropped, alongside European and US equity futures, as traders evaluated the implications of President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda and potential cabinet choices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for a third consecutive day, driven by rising Treasury yields amid concerns that Trump’s proposed tax cuts could increase inflation.
*There are also reports that Trump is considering two individuals for prominent roles in his administration with track records of criticizing China.
*DAX and FTSE100 are down -1.1% and -0.5% respectively, after a pickup in German HICP inflation and higher than expected UK wage growth dampened easing expectations.
*Investors await the US CPI report for insights into the Fed’s easing path, as Trump’s inflationary policies may lead to fewer rate cuts.


Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex continues to rise and is currently at 105.75. It hit a 1-year high.
*EURUSD drifts to 1.0620 and GBPUSD is in a sell off, currently at 1.2800.
*Oil prices fell after their biggest 2-week decline, amid a weak demand outlook from China, a stronger US Dollar, and concerns over a potential oversupply.
*Crude oil has traded within a narrow range since mid-last month, influenced by Middle East tensions, the US election, and OPEC+ output decisions.
*Gold remains under pressure and is currently at just $2604.36 per ounce. It hit a one-month low, down 5% since Trump’s election victory, as a strong dollar and US equity rotation pressured the metal. Gold’s decline was also technical, breaking below the 50-day moving average, causing funds to cover long positions. Despite recent drops, gold remains up 25% for the year, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.v

[HFM]

Date: 27th November 2024.


S&P500 at its 52nd new peak for 2024; USD Firmer, Kiwi & Yen Up.





Asia & European Sessions:


*Wall Street rallied into the close with the S&P500 and Dow registering more record highs with the S&P500 climbing 0.57% to 6045, its 52nd new peak for 2024. The Dow rose 0.28% to 44,860.3 for its 46th record of the year. The NASDAQ advanced 0.63%.
*Trump named Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett to direct the National Economic Council. Greer was intimately involved in Trump’s first-term trade policy decisions.
*President Biden announced Israel and Hezbollah have reached a cease fire. Over the next 60 days the Lebanese army and state security will take control of their own territory and Israel will gradually withdraw its forces.
*FOMC minutes: Minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting revealed officials leaning toward a cautious approach to future rate cuts. All agreed to cut the rate by -25 bps and nearly all thought risks between achieving employment and inflation goals were “roughly in balance.” Upside risks to the inflation outlook were little changed, and while inflation had eased, it remained elevated. The implied December rate continues to hover around a 50-50 bet as we await the PCE price data Wednesday and the crucial jobs report on December 6. The January 2025 rate is priced for a total of 20 bps in cuts, with -75 bps by January 2026.
*RBNZ cut its cash rate by 50 bps, yet the Kiwi gained as traders analyzed the central bank’s rate outlook and the governor’s remarks.
*Chinese government approved a 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) bond quota, enabling two state-owned asset managers to issue bonds for funding projects aimed at spurring economic growth.
*Today: US inflation and economic growth may provide clues to the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex has dropped to currently 106.459.
*The Yen climbed with USDJPY pulling back to 151.82, while NZDUSD jumped to 0.5900 despite the RBNZ’s 50 bps rate cut.
*Oil prices stabilized at $68.84, with optimism over delayed OPEC+ output increases balancing the reduced geopolitical risk stemming from the ceasefire.
*Gold rebounds to 2653.54, with next Resistance at 2660-2664.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 20th December 2024.


BOE Sees More Support For Rate Cuts As USD Strengthens!



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


The US Dollar continues to rise in value after obtaining further support from positive economic and employment data. However, the hawkish Federal Reserve continues to support the currency. On the other hand, the Great British Pound comes under significant strain. Why is the GBPUSD declining?


GBPUSD - Why is the GBPUSD Declining?


The GBPUSD is witnessing bullish price movement for three primary reasons. The first is the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy, the second is the positive US news releases from yesterday and the third is the votes from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.





Even though the Bank of England chose to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, the number of votes to cut indicates dovishness in the upcoming months. Previously, traders were expecting the BoE to remain cautious due to inflation rising to 2.6% and positive employment data. In addition to this, the Retail Sales data from earlier this morning only rose 0.2%, lower than expectations adding pressure to GBP.


Investors also should note that the two currencies did not conflict and price action was driven by both an increasing USD and a declining GBP. The US Dollar rose in value against all currencies, except for the Swiss Franc, against which it saw a slight decline. The GBP fell against all currencies, except for the GBPJPY, which ended higher solely due to earlier gains.


US Monetary Policy and Macroeconomics


The bullish price movement seen within the US Dollar Index continues to partially be due to its hawkish monetary policy. Particularly, indications from Jerome Powell that the Fed will only cut on two occasions and the first cut will take place in May.


However, in addition to this the economic data from yesterday continues to illustrate a resilient and growing economy. This also supports the Fed’s approach to monetary policy and its efforts to push inflation back to the 2% target. The US GDP rose 3.1% over the past quarter beating expectations of 2.8%. The GDP rate of 3.1% is also higher than the first two quarters of 2024 (1.4% & 3.0%). In addition to this, the US Weekly Unemployment Claims fell from 242,000 to 220,000 and existing home sales rose to 4.15 million. Home sales in the latest month rose to an 8-month high.


For this reason, the US Dollar rose in value against most currencies throughout the day. Analysts believe the US Dollar will continue to perform well due to less frequent rate cuts and tariffs. The US Dollar Index trades 1.65% higher this week.


NASDAQ - Technical Analysis


Due to the bearish volatility, the price of the NASDAQ is trading below all major Moving Averages and Oscillators on the 2-Hour chart. After retracement the oscillators are no longer indicating an oversold price and continue to point to a bearish bias. Sell indications are likely to strengthen if the price declines below $21,222.60 in the short-term.


Bank of England Sees Increased Support for Rate Cuts!


The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged as per market’s previous expectations. The decision is determined by a committee of nine members and at least five of them must vote for a cut for the central bank to proceed. Analysts anticipated only two members voting for a cut, but three did. This signals a dovish tone and increases the likelihood of earlier rate cuts in 2025.


The three members that voted for a rate cut were Dave Ramsden, Swati Dhingra, and Alan Taylor. Advocates for lower rates believe the current policy is too restrictive and risks pushing inflation well below the 2.0% target in the medium term. Meanwhile, supporters of keeping the current monetary policy argue that it's unclear if rising business costs will increase consumer prices, reduce jobs, or slow wage growth.


However, if markets continue to expect a more dovish Bank of England in 2025, the GBP could come under further pressure. In 2024, the GBP was the best performing currency after the US Dollar and outperformed the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc. This was due to the Bank of England’s reluctance to adjust rates at a similar pace to other central banks.


GBPUSD - Technical Analysis


In terms of the price of the exchange, most analysts believe the GBPUSD will continue to decline so long as the Federal Reserve retains their hawkish tone. The exchange rate continues to form lower swing lows and lower highs. The price trades below most moving averages on the 2-hour timeframe and below the neutral level on oscillators. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price moves back towards the 200-bar SMA, but sell signals may materialise if the price falls back below 1.24894.





Key Takeaways:


*The US Dollar increases in value for a third consecutive day and increases its monthly rise to 2.32%.
*The US Dollar Index was the best performing currency of Thursday’s session, along with the Swiss Franc.
*US Gross Domestic Product rises to 3.1% beating economist’s expectations of 2.8%.
*US Weekly Unemployment Claims read 220,000, 22,000 less than the previous week and lower than expectations.
*The NASDAQ declines further and trades 5.00% lower than the previous lows.
*The GBPUSD ends the day 0.56% lower and falls more than 1% after the Bank of England’s rate decision. Three Members of the BoE vote to cut interest rates.
*The GBP was the worst performing currency of the day along with the Japanese Yen.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 27th January 2025.


Mild Risk-Off Sentiment: Stocks Slide, Yen Gains, and Bitcoin Dips Amid Tariff Tensions and Fed Anticipation.


Asia & European Sessions:


* European stock market indexes are lower in early trade, after a mixed session in Asia, where concern over the weaponization of tariffs and a possible tech shakeup put mainly China bourses on the back foot.
* Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Colombia, citing the country’s refusal to accept military flights carrying deported migrants, prompted Bogotá to threaten retaliatory measures. However, the White House later announced Colombia had agreed to accept the flights, defusing immediate tensions. Trump also signalled potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting February 1.
* The Hang Seng is up 0.6%, while the Nikkei dropped as central bank action remains in focus and the yen rallied. DAX and FTSE100 are down -1.2% and 0.4% respectively in early trade and a -2.8% correction in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower.
* Bonds meanwhile are rallying as risk aversion picks up.
* The Yen rose against the US dollar during Asian trading hours, as investors sought its safety amidst concerns about President Donald Trump’s tariff. On Friday, the yen briefly climbed 0.8% after the BOJ raised its policy rate to the highest level since 2008 but later retreated. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated the central bank would maintain rate hikes as wage and price growth broadened but gave few hints on the pace of future increases.
* Bitcoin saw a sharp decline as traders took profits just days followed Trump’s Friday announcement of a long-anticipated executive order establishing a working group to guide the White House on cryptocurrency policy. This group has been tasked with drafting a regulatory framework for digital assets within six months, while also exploring the idea of creating a national crypto stockpile.
* Earnings reports from over 100 S&P500 companies will dominate headlines, featuring major players like Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA). Wednesday is shaping up to be the busiest day, with additional reports from Starbucks (SBUX), Exxon (XOM), and Chevron (CVX).
* The Federal Reserve will also be in focus on Wednesday, announcing its latest policy decision. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for clues about monetary policy for the rest of 2025.


Financial Markets Performance:


* The USDIndex is little changed at 107.40. Expectations of widespread tariffs on imports from countries like China, Canada, and Mexico have fueled inflation fears, driving US Treasury yields higher and bolstering the dollar.
* The USDJPY traded at 155.88 after the BOJ raised rates and revised inflation forecasts higher.
* The Mexican peso, often sensitive to tariff news, fell 0.7% to 20.409 per dollar, while the Canadian dollar weakened to 1.4385 per dollar.
* The euro edged down 0.2% to $1.0455 ahead of an ECB meeting expected to lower borrowing costs. The British pound traded lower at $1.2428.
* Bitcoin slipped below $98,300. Other tokens like Solana and Cardano, which had surged following Trump’s election victory, experienced even steeper losses, according to Bloomberg data.
* Oil prices are down -0.4% at $74.28 per barrel.
* Gold is down -0.6% at a still-high $2753.80 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th February 2025.


The AUD Surges as Foreign Buyer Ban Hits & Rate Cuts Nears!


In 2025 the Australian Dollar has been one of the best-performing currencies increasing by 2.85% so far. Analysts expect the AUD to be one of the most volatile currencies of the week due to policy changes. The Reserve Bank of Australia is due to cut its interest rates by 0.25% and has announced a ban on foreigners purchasing homes for 2 years. What does this mean for the Australian Dollar?


RBA To Cuts Rate For First Time Since 2025


Analysts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 4.35% to 4.10% tomorrow morning. This would mark the first time that the RBA has cut interest rates since November 2020. Lower interest rates tend to pressure the currencies, however, the value of the AUD will largely depend on how frequently the RBA will cut in 2025. Tomorrow’s press conference at 04:30 GMT will be key for further indications.


Meanwhile, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported a 2.0% year-on-year profit increase, reaching $5.13 billion for the six months ending December 31. The bank also posted a 7.0% profit increase for the second half of its 2024 financial year, surpassing analysts' expectations of $5.06 billion. It announced an interim dividend of $2.25 per share, a 5.0% increase from the previous year.


Following the earnings release, the bank's shares surged 2.4%, making them the top gainers on the ASX 200 and hitting a record high of $165.98. While Australian households and businesses continue to face rising living costs, experts note a decline in loan defaults and fewer customers seeking financial assistance, largely attributed to low unemployment.


Australia Ban Foreigners from Buying Homes for 2-Years


Australia restricts foreign home purchases for two years to help balance supply and demand. At first, the price of the currency index opened at a lower price (bearish price gap). However, the price has since risen in value and is currently one of the better-performing currencies of the day. So far, the currency has not negatively reacted to the news, but investors remain on the lookout.


Starting April 1, 2025, Australia will ban foreign buyers, including temporary residents and foreign-owned companies, from purchasing homes until March 2027. Housing Minister Clare O’Neil announced the move to address soaring property prices and support local buyers, especially young voters.


EURAUD - Indications and Price Analysis.


The Euro is the day's worst-performing currency and may face further pressure this week amid scrutiny over the German elections. For this reason, the EURAUD currently is witnessing less conflicting price action elements and indications. The EURAUD on a 2-hour timeframe is currently trading below both trend-lines and Moving Averages and below the neutral level of the RSI.


Simultaneously, the EURAUD is also trading lower on the 5-minute timeframe. On the 5-minute timeframe the price is trading below the 200-period SMA and may see sell indications strengthen if the price falls below 1.64452. The next significant support level can be seen at 1.63895.


Key Takeaway Points:


* Australia Ban Foreigners from buying homes for 2 years in an attempt to balance the current supply and demand. The Australian Dollar increases in value on Monday.
* Analysts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut its main Cash Rate by 25 basis points tomorrow morning.
* The Japanese Yen, US Dollar and Australian Dollar are the best-performing currencies of the day so far.
* The Euro is the day's worst-performing currency and may face further pressure this week amid scrutiny over the German elections.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 10th March 2025.


SNP500 Hits a 6-Month Low: Trade Policy & Recession Fears Weigh on Market`s.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


The SNP500 completes a 3-week decline and falls to its lowest price since September 2024. The price continues to remain under pressure from President Trump’s trade policy. In addition to this, investors are becoming increasingly cautious about a potential US recession.


SNP500 - Trade Policy and The Federal Reserve’s View On The Economy


The US Non-Farm Employment data on Friday read lower than what analysts were expecting. However, the data does not yet indicate a recession. Investors are increasingly showing a lower risk appetite and cautiousness due to Trump’s trade policy on China, Mexico and Canada. The NFP Change read 151,000, 8,000 lower than predictions and the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1%.


The poor price movement is more driven by comments from the US President. Yesterday evening on Fox News, the US President addressed concerns about a potential US recession, advising the economy will undergo ‘a period of transition.’ However, some see this as a subtle warning of a short economic downturn. Though the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is taking a different tone and looking to reassure the market.





Mr Jerome Powell advises the FOMC is not expecting or worried about a US recession. ‘The US economy remains in a strong position despite heightened uncertainty,’ Powell stated at a University of Chicago event. He also said that sentiment readings have been a reliable tool for predicting consumption growth in recent years. ‘There is no need to rush, we are in a good position to wait for more clarity,’ was his answer to questions about interest rates.


On the one hand, the SNP500 may witness support from the positive comments from the Fed regarding the economy. He also clarified that certain economic indicators are not predicting a recession regardless of the lower figures. However, the comments on interest rates and keeping them unchanged for a longer period can pressure the price of the index.


Will The SNP500 Continue Declining?


The FedWatch tool indicated a 92% chance of a pause in this month’s Fed Rate Decision, but the figure has risen to 97%. If the possibility of a rate cut continues to be unlikely in the near future, the SNP500 may continue to remain under pressure. Currently, the VIX, an index used as an indication of risk, is trading more than 4.00% higher. For this reason, the VIX continues to indicate a poor performance in the short-term.


Asian and European indices are trading lower this morning as are US indices. As a result, the performance of the global stock market shows a ‘risk off’ sentiment.


SNP500 - Technical Analysis


The price of the SNP500 is currently trading 0.73% lower and gains bearish momentum as the European market opens. In the 2-hour timeframe, the price is trading below the main Moving Averages and VWAP. The index also remains within the ‘sell’ zone of the RSI and MACD. On the 3-minute chart, the price remains below the 200-bar SMA and sell signals may continue to materialize for as long as the price remains below this level.





Key Takeaway Points:


* The SNP500 has declined for three consecutive weeks, hitting its lowest level since September 2024. The main cause of pressure is from Trump’s trade policies and recession concerns.
* Weaker-than-expected US employment data raised caution. However, the Fed reassured markets, stating there is no imminent recession and no rush to adjust interest rates.
* The FedWatch tool now shows a 97% chance of a rate pause, reducing hopes for near-term cuts.
* Technical indicators suggest continued bearish momentum, with the index trading below key moving averages and remaining in the sell zone on RSI.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.