HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 09th October 2024.


Mag 7 surged, Oil dipped as China weighed on the demand outlook.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


It is a real mix in the markets amid a confluence of factors including positioning, Fed policy outlooks, growth and inflation outlooks, election uncertainties, and stimulus (or lack of) from China.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Wall Street climbed amid a surge in the Mag 7 stocks, paced by Nvidia (+4%). Stocks are recovering in general after the retreat to begin the month as unwinding of big rate cut bets and geopolitical angst weighed. Investor optimism has gotten a boost from signs of a solid labor market and economy, as well as from the stimulus from China.
*Goldman Sachs raised its outlook on the S&P500 to 6,000. The NASDAQ ended with a 1.45% advance, while the S&P500 was 0.97% higher, and the Dow was up 0.30%. The VIX fell -5.3% to 21.43.
*The US Justice Department announced on Tuesday that it may request a court order compelling Alphabet’s Google to sell off parts of its business, including its Chrome browser and Android operating system, which authorities argue are key tools in maintaining its illegal monopoly in the online search market (handles 90% of internet searches in the US, had established an unlawful monopoly).
*Nvidia surged 4% posting its 5th consecutive day of gains. Nvidia shares have risen nearly 14% in the past week and are up 190% over the past year. Several major investment firms, including KeyBanc, Citi, and Bernstein, reaffirmed their positive ratings on the stock. KeyBanc analysts also increased their 2025 sales forecast for Nvidia to $130.6 billion, driven by strong demand for its new Blackwell AI chips, which are expected to contribute $7 billion to fourth-quarter revenue. Wedbush analysts highlighted that the recent $6.6 billion funding round for OpenAI could spur further investment in AI startups, boosting Nvidia’s AI chip demand well into 2025.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex was little changed at 102.50.
*USOil slid -4.17% to $72.26 per barrel following the climb to a session peak of $78.46 Monday, in part as China failed to add to its stimulus binge. Oil is facing a tug-of-war between fundamentals indicating a surplus in 2025 and geopolitical tensions.
*Gold broke below the key $2620 per ounce from the record $2672.38 from late September amid expectations for a benign CPI report ahead along with the firmer dollar. Risk aversion has been keeping demand for the precious metal underpinned, even against the background of a pickup in yields and a stronger dollar. OTC sales have also helped to boost prices, while central bank demand has eased somewhat with the rise in prices. Recent data showed that China’s central bank refrained from purchasing gold for its reserves for a fifth consecutive month in September.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 25th October 2024.


UK Debt Set To Rise: How Will the GBP React?



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


*The UK Chancellor looks to change Fiscal Policy in order to allow the UK to borrow 70 million GBP more.
*The IMF increases its forecast for the UK economy to recover this year from 0.7% to 1.1%. UK PMI data underachieved on Thursday.
*The NASDAQ increases 0.55% as Tesla’s latest earnings data increase shareholder sentiment.
*The US Dollar Index retraces after increasing in value for 4 consecutive weeks.


GBPUSD – UK To Change Fiscal Policy To Increase Debt Levels!


The GBPUSD exchange rate trades slightly lower during this morning’s asian session but looks to be regaining momentum. In addition to this, the GBPUSD continues to remain below most Moving Averages despite the upward price movement on Thursday. The downward price movement on Thursday was largely due to a decline in the US Dollar and not necessarily the Pound strengthening. For this week, the British Pound has fallen 0.65% against the currency market and traders will closely watch the Pound’s reaction to the UK’s Autumn budget.





The US Dollar is the best performing currency of the past 7 days and is the best performing of the day so far. The US Dollar continues to be supported by significant economic data. This includes the Weekly Unemployment Claims which fell to 227,000, New Home Sales rising to 738,000 and Flash PMI data reading slightly higher than previous expectations.


The Beige Book made public yesterday indicates that economic activity remained steady in September 2024. However, companies reported a modest uptick in hiring, a general easing of inflation pressures, and input costs rising faster than sales prices, which impacted business profitability. Lastly, the Federal Reserve continues to support the US Dollar as the market predicts a 0.25% rate cut.


The Bank of England on the other hand are likely to cut interest rates at the next meeting but it is not clear whether the BoE will cut 0.25% or 0.50%. Meanwhile, investors are watching the Autumn budget set for October 30th with a close eye. The UK Chancellor is looking to change Fiscal Policy in order to allow the UK to borrow 70 million GBP more. This could be a challenge and if global investors are not comfortable with the risk, this could pressure the Pound. This is something also previously seen under the Truss administration, but economists do not expect such a sharp nosedive. Lastly, yesterday’s UK PMI data for both the Services and Manufacturing sectors fell lower than the previous month and lower than current expectations.


However, if the price of the GBPUSD continues to decline, where does technical analysis point to a trigger point? As the price retraces back to the previous swing high, traders will look for the price to regain momentum before speculating a decline. The latest bullish swing measures 0.14%. Therefore if the price falls below 1.29618, investors will consider the momentum an opportunity. This will also push the price back below the 200-bar SMA on the 5-Minute Chart.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 21th November 2024.


Gold Regains Momentum & NVIDIA Delivers a Revenue Surge!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*NVIDIA beat earnings expectations, and nearly doubled revenue on an annual basis.
*NVIDIA stocks dip slightly despite strong earnings and a strong forecast for the current quarter. Analysts expect market participants to purchase the dip.
*The Japanese Yen wins back some ground as Bank of Japan Governor indicates the regulator will be willing to hike to support the FX market.
*Gold, Silver and other Metals all rise due to predictions of high retail and institutional demand and geopolitical tensions remaining high.


NASDAQ – NVIDIA Surpasses Earnings Expectations!


The NASDAQ took a sudden dip on Wednesday measuring 1.50%, however, investors quickly took the opportunity to purchase at the lower price as most indicators fell to give an oversold indication. As a result, the NASDAQ ended the day only slightly lower than the open price, but downward momentum remains this morning.





The downward momentum is partially due to geopolitical tensions which are on the rise. Yesterday, Ukraine fired UK-made missiles into Russia and fired US-made the day before. There are also reports and speculations that Russia has sent ICB Missiles into Ukraine for the first time. However, reports are not confirmed, and there are signs of certain stocks recovering.


Currently, there is no economic data which is driving the lack of demand, therefore investors are mainly concentrating on NVIDIA earnings. NVIDIA beat earnings expectations by 8.50% and revenue by 5.90%. Investors were particularly impressed by the significantly higher revenue which has almost doubled annually. In addition to this, the forecast given for the current quarter came in relatively strong. Lastly, the CEO, Jenson Huang, said to Bloomberg that demand exceeds supply but the company is setting in place measures to boost supply in order to meet the high level of demand.


Taking into consideration the strong earnings, positive tone and upbeat forecasts for the coming quarter, many may wonder, “why is the stock declining 2.50% during this morning’s Asian session?”. This is partially due to the lower risk appetite, but also due to certain forecast expectations for NVIDIA not being met. The average NVIDIA forecast expectations from Wall Street firms was $37.1 billion, which NVIDIA comfortably surpassed.


However, certain firms had expectations as high as $41 billion. Based on these higher expectations, the company underachieved and could trigger a lack of demand from this sector of Wall Street. Though many analysts continue to expect shareholders to purchase the lower price as long as the stock market will remain favorable.


EURJPY – BOJ To Consider Hike!


The EURJPY declines for a second consecutive day, particularly gaining bearish momentum after this morning’s Bank of Japan press conference. The main takeaway from the press conference was that the Governor told journalists that the BOJ was willing to hike interest rates in the upcoming months but decisions will be made meeting by meeting.





The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates in July was influenced in part by the weak Yen, which had driven up import costs and inflation. At the Europlace Financial Forum in Tokyo, Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that exchange-rate fluctuations are a key consideration in shaping economic and inflation forecasts. He noted that the central bank carefully examines what is driving these currency changes when assessing their impact.


The EURJPY now trades below the 75-Bar Exponential Moving Average and below the 50.00 on the RSI. In addition to this, the exchange rate continues to form lower swing lows while the Euro underperforms against most currencies. These indications point towards a potential downward price movement.


Gold – Geopolitical Tensions Send Gold on a Bullish Path!


Gold has increased in value for a fourth consecutive day, driven largely by geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the absence of significant US economic news has left markets uncertain about the Federal Reserve’s next move. Gold is currently witnessing an active buy signal from most momentum-based indicators due to the strong bullish momentum.





For example, traders are able to see the price trading above the Bollinger Band, within a bullish moving average crossover and significantly high on most oscilators. However, investors should note as the price increases, the asset can become overbought and this may trigger a retracement, a correction or sideways price movement.


In terms of geopolitical tensions, hopes for a Middle East ceasefire are being tempered by Russia’s revision of its nuclear doctrine, which aims to strengthen its borders after the US-approved long-range strikes from Ukraine reached deep into Russian territory. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s re-election has yet to significantly influence the conflict, though markets remain optimistic about potential positive developments following his January 20 inauguration.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th December 2024.


Stocks Cautious Amid Rate Cuts for Christmas; Geopolitical Unrest.



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


Investors entered the week with caution as geopolitical unrest, spanning from Syria to South Korea, cast a shadow over the global economic outlook. This cautious tone comes as investors prepare for a week shaped by central bank announcements, a pivotal Chinese policy meeting, and US inflation data.


Asia & European Sessions:


*The global market impact of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow remained uncertain. Assad’s removal has created a power vacuum, further destabilizing an already volatile region. Assad, whose family ruled Syria for five decades, fled to Moscow after rebels toppled his regime. Meanwhile, oil prices showed mixed movement, and US stock futures inched downward.
*South Korea: political tensions escalated as reports emerged that authorities were considering restricting President Yoon Suk Yeol’s international travel. This development followed his brief declaration of martial law during a budget dispute, which he later rescinded.
*Asian shares were largely down on Monday, with South Korea’s index tumbling 2.6% and the Asian equity index dropping 0.3% overall, following a record-breaking performance in US markets last week.
*Chinese markets also weakened after data highlighted sluggish demand recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. The CPI in November decelerated to 0.2%, the lowest since June, while factory deflation extended into a 26th straight month painting a mixed picture of the effects of recent stimulus efforts on the economy.
*This week: A much anticipated ECB meeting headlines this week with another -25 bp cut widely expected. Additionally, the SNB is seen delivering a -25 bp reduction. And the BoC is in easing mode too, with increased odds for another -50 bps, while RBA is likely to hold rates steady as the country’s economy shows signs of cooling. In the US a solid jobs report did not dissuade expectations for a quarter point reduction next week, though the CPI will help solidify outlooks.





Financial Markets Performance:


*Currency markets reflected the geopolitical unease and the resilient US economy, with the USDindex strengthening as a safe-haven asset, at 106.50.
*The Euro and Turkish lira slid, partly influenced by the upheaval in Syria, expectations of further monetary easing by the ECB and the broader risk-off sentiment.
*Oil climbed to $67.60 as traders reacted to Saudi Arabia’s deeper-than-expected cuts to crude prices for Asia and speculated on the potential economic fallout from the collapse of Syria’s Assad regime.
*Gold gapped up this morning, ending a 6-month hiatus and signaling renewed interest in diversifying reserves. Gold rose after China’s central bank added bullion to its reserves for the first time in seven months, and the rapid fall of the Syrian government further destabilized the Middle East. It is currently traded at $2650.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th January 2025.


FOMC Minutes Signal Slower Rate Cuts, UK Borrowing Costs Surge, & Global Market Update.



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*The FOMC minutes showed that the Committee expected to be slowing the pace of rate cuts after its decision to trim rates another -25 bps. Following an unexpected emergency rate cut in September, despite there being no immediate crisis, the Fed has since shifted towards a more measured approach, indicating that a slower pace of rate reductions would be “appropriate” by December. The core strategy remains consistent: to bring inflation down. While inflation-related discussions did touch on concerns over US President-elect Trump’s trade taxes and deportation plans, these issues were not the main focus of the inflation debate.
*The Greenback was firmer overnight on reports Trump would declare a state of emergency to get his tariff plans through. It dipped on the ADP report but bounced on the tight jobless claims data. The index had firmed yesterday after Trump denied reports he would soften his tariff plans, and after the strength in the JOLTS numbers Tuesday. Solid 30-year auction results also supported in the afternoon.
*China's inflation data for December showed largely stable consumer prices, with food prices stabilizing (a notable factor given food’s significant weight in the consumer basket) and only modest increases in non-food prices, despite efforts to boost domestic consumption. Producer prices, however, continue to struggle with deflation.
*In the UK, the BRC shop price index fell more sharply than anticipated, with a significant drop in non-food item prices, likely influenced by Black Friday discounts. When combined with sales data, this suggests that UK consumers increased their real-term spending in the fourth quarter, driven by lower prices and promotions.
*Gilts remain under pressure in early trade, with the UK 10-year rate up 2.1 bp at 4.81%. UK 10-year borrowing costs surged to their highest point since the global financial crisis, while the Pound plummeted, as a deepening bond sell-off raised concerns over the Labour government’s ability to meet its self-imposed budget targets. So far in 2025, borrowing costs in the UK have increased at a faster pace than in other major economies, driven by investor fears over the government’s large borrowing requirements and the mounting risk of stagflation.
*Eurozone industrial production rose 1.5% m/m in November. Germany's jobless rate still is very low by European standards, but the overall picture remains pretty gloomy, with political uncertainty and the threat of Trump tariffs not helping.





Financial Markets Performance:


*European stock markets are mixed, with the FTSE100 outperforming and up 0.4%, while the DAX is down -0.2%, after a largely weaker close across Asia. Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost -0.3%, after Chinese inflation numbers.
*The USDIndex is up 0.2% and at 109.17, while Sterling continues to sell off. GBPUSD slumped below 1.2300 on budget angst and as the 10-year Gilt spiked.
*EURUSD slumped to 1.0273 after weak Eurozone data.
*USOIL is slightly down on the day and at USD 73.24 per barrel.
*Gold is unchanged at USD 2662.44 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 7th February 2025.


Global Currency Market Analysis: Key Drivers and NFP's Impact.


The Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar have performed well throughout the week. However, today, the US will release the NFP Employment Change, Average Salary Growth, and Unemployment Rate. As a result, most currencies are likely to witness high volatility throughout today’s US session.


US Dollar


The US Dollar may seem like the worst-performing currency of the week. However, traders should note on Monday the currency opened on a gap measuring more than 1%. Therefore, the US Dollar is only trading 0.60% lower this week and that can easily change with the release of today’s NFP data.


Analysts expect the Non-Farm Payroll figure to read 169,000 which is lower than the 256,000 from the previous month, but more or less, at the average of the past 6 months. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 4.1% and the Average Salary Growth at 0.3%. If the NFP data reads higher than expectations, the US Dollar can quickly increase in value. Particularly, if the unemployment rate falls to 4.00%.


Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that higher trade tariffs could drive inflation. Fed Vice Chair Mr Jefferson added that interest rates should stay unchanged until the full effects of Trump's policies. Mr Jefferson is mainly focusing on the effects of tariffs, immigration, and taxes.


British Pound


The British Pound was the worst-performing currency of the day on Thursday due to pressure from the Bank of England. The downward pressure came from the Monetary Policy Committee. Two members of the board, Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra, supported the adjustment of the cost of borrowing by 50 basis points. Previously, analysts expected only 1 vote. In addition to this, no member took a hawkish stance which also put pressure on the GBP.


The Bank of England also made adjustments to the UK Gross Domestic Product to illustrate a weaker outlook. Analysts also expect inflation to rise in the UK due to increases in national insurance contributions. For this reason, many traders currently hold a bearish bias towards the GBP. The current support level for the GBPUSD can be seen at 1.23567 which is currently 0.65% lower than the current price. However, the exchange rate will mainly be driven by the US Dollar throughout the day.


Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency of the week adding more than 2.10% to the JPY Index. The main price driver pushing the JPY higher is the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy and recent hawkish comments.


Bank of Japan member Mr Tamura stated that the BoJ should raise interest rates to at least 1% by the second half of 2025. He cited ongoing inflation risks, with companies continuing to pass rising raw material and labour costs onto consumers. Tamura warned that if short-term interest rates stay below the neutral level, inflation will likely accelerate further.


The hawkish comments continue to positively influence the Japanese Yen, the best-performing currency of 2025 so far. Many investors are looking to increase their exposure to the Yen, attracted by its safe-haven status and its current low value, which remains 14% below its 2022 level. Check out which Japanese Yen pairs are tradable here!


Key Takeaway points:


* Top Currencies: The Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar led the week, but US NFP data may shake up rankings.
* US Dollar: Despite a mixed performance, a strong NFP report could reverse losses, especially if unemployment drops to 4.0%.
* British Pound Pressure: The BoE's dovish stance and GDP outlook weighed on the GBP, with traders maintaining a bearish bias.
* Japanese Yen Strength: Hawkish BoJ comments and inflation concerns fueled a 2.10% JPY rally, attracting investors seeking a safe-haven asset.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 25th February 2025.


Markets on Edge as Trump’s Tariff Plans Shake Global Trade and Investor Sentiment.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Financial markets continue to experience heightened volatility as US President Donald Trump reaffirms plans to impose tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, a move expected to take effect next week. However, scepticism remains, as such tariffs on essential goods like propane and avocados would have an immediate and visible impact on US consumers. Current polls indicate only 32% of American voters approve of Trump’s handling of inflation, adding further uncertainty to market sentiment.


President Donald Trump announced a one-month delay on tariff hikes for Canadian and Mexican imports, further escalating tensions. Additionally, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports linked to fentanyl production has heightened trade concerns. Market sentiment has been impacted, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropping by 10% in the past month due to fears over inflation and tariffs.


Asian Markets and US-China Tensions


Asian markets suffered significant declines, particularly in Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, as Trump’s new directives on curbing Chinese investments raised concerns. His administration is also pushing for stricter semiconductor export controls, a move that could further strain US-China relations. The latest measures include discussions with Japan and the Netherlands to limit maintenance support for semiconductor equipment used in China.


Despite initial losses, Chinese technology stocks rebounded, with mainland investors injecting over $1 billion into Hong Kong stocks. This underscores Beijing’s commitment to achieving technological self-sufficiency, a priority for President Xi Jinping in the ongoing tech rivalry with the U.S. While Chinese internet giants had recently enjoyed a rally, Trump’s renewed restrictions introduced fresh geopolitical risks, weighing on investor confidence.


US Stock Market Struggles Amid Tariff Uncertainty


Stocks declined, and US Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in over two months as concerns mounted over Trump’s tariff plans and investment restrictions on China. European equity index futures pointed to a weaker open following a selloff in US stocks. Meanwhile, Chinese shares experienced whipsaw movements, and the Dollar weakened for a second consecutive day. With only a month into his presidency, investors are increasingly cautious about Trump’s policies and their potential impact on economic growth. This uncertainty has driven a flight to safe-haven assets, with gold surging 12% since the start of the year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials have reiterated their stance of maintaining current interest rates, citing persistent inflationary pressures.


US stocks continued to slide on Monday following last week’s sharp losses. The S&P 500 dipped 0.5% to 5,983.25, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.2% to 19,286.92. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.1% to 43,461.21. Berkshire Hathaway climbed 4.1% after reporting strong operating profits, yet Warren Buffett’s firm remains cautious, holding $334.2 billion in unused cash. Starbucks gained 1.3% after announcing 1,100 corporate job cuts to streamline operations under CEO Brian Niccol.


In Japan, trading houses saw a surge in stock prices after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway signalled plans to increase its holdings. Mitsubishi Corp. led the rally, climbing 9.2%—its biggest gain in a year—while Marubeni Corp. and Mitsui & Co. also posted strong advances. Buffett’s interest in Japanese trading houses underscores their diversification across industries, making them resilient to market fluctuations.


Nvidia’s Earnings and AI Market Disruptions


Nvidia, a major driver of the AI boom, is set to release earnings on Wednesday. The market is watching closely after China’s DeepSeek announced an AI model that rivals US technology without requiring high-end chips. This development has sparked concerns about demand for AI-related infrastructure, causing Nvidia shares to drop 3.1%, weighing on the S&P 500.





Commodities and Corporate Movements


The commodity sector also faced significant developments, particularly in the cobalt market. A surprise four-month export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world’s largest cobalt producer, sent shockwaves through the industry. The move aims to curb global oversupply, but it has also raised concerns about supply chain disruptions in the battery and alloy industries.


Gold Prices Retreat as Investors Take Profits


Gold prices eased after hitting fresh record highs, as investors took profits amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and growing haven demand. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,937.65 per ounce. Gold-backed ETFs saw their largest net inflows since 2022, fueled by market uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and economic outlook. Lower Treasury yields also contributed to gold’s strength after a well-received two-year note auction. Analysts from ANZ Banking Group noted increasing physical flows into gold ETFs as investors seek safe-haven assets.


US crude oil gained 52 cents to $71.22 per barrel, while Brent crude climbed 0.7% to $74.75 per barrel. In currency markets, the US dollar weakened slightly against the Japanese yen at 149.50, while the Euro strengthened to $1.0473. Bitcoin, often viewed as a “Trump trade,” also slid amid the uncertainty.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 04th March 2025.


Tariffs and OPEC+ Drive Oil Prices Lower.



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


Crude Oil prices fell 0.70% on Tuesday declining closer to the asset’s main support level. OPEC’s latest announcement has been one of the main drivers of lower prices. OPEC, which produces 40% of the world’s Crude Oil, surprisingly has increased oil production. However, other economic factors are also triggering a lower demand.


OPEC Increases Supply Pressuring Prices


OPEC+ confirms it will increase production and market output in 2025 despite prices declining for six consecutive weeks. The move from OPEC is primarily driven by pressure from the US administration to not purposely look to lower production in order to keep prices high.


OPEC+ will boost oil production by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, causing crude prices to drop. The move has become possible with Russia expecting the Ukraine-Russia conflict to end in 2025 and the US’s more favourable approach towards Russia and Saudi Arabia. This marks the first of several monthly increases, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026 after a two-year pause.


The higher output will increase supply and can significantly change the balance between supply and demand. As a result, Crude Oil prices have fallen, particularly as economic data globally has taken a hit over the past month. Over the past six weeks, Crude Oil prices have fallen by more than 10%. However, the move by OPEC is related solely to the supply within the market. Simultaneously, trade wars are also worrying traders about how demand may change in the upcoming months.





US Turn Up The Heat on Trade Wars


The US tariffs on Mexico and Canada are now officially active, taking the level of tariffs to its highest level since the 1980s. President Trump has also advised the US to add a further 10% tariff on China in addition to the 10% announced in January. As a result, experts believe the global economy is likely to witness shockwaves in the short to medium term. This can also be seen in the stock market which has fallen 5% over the past 3 weeks.


The economic slowdown is catching up with rising inflation and tariffs which are put into place. Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next moves is growing with some economists advising the Fed may be pressured into taking earlier. In response to the additional tariffs, China is vowing to take countermeasures to protect its producers. Warren Buffett called the tariffs an extra tax on people with little economic benefit.


Weaker economic activity and a lower risk appetite within the market are known to pressure prices significantly. During the previous Trump administration and ‘trade tariff policy’ the price of Crude oil fell 13%.


Crude Oil - Technical Analysis


The price of Crude Oil in the longer term is obtaining indication the price may decline. On a monthly chart, the price forms a clear descending triangle which is known to hold a bearish bias. On the 2-hour chart, the price is also trading below the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average, below the VWAP and below the neutral areas of most oscillators. For this reason, momentum is indicating downward price movement.


However, the main concern for bearish traders is the support level which is sitting at $66.70 per barrel. The support level is currently 1.50% points away from the current price. In order for sell signals to materialise in the short term, traders will be monitoring if the price can break below $67.69.


[imghttps://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=images/USOILDaily_Internal_6836b26f5677492bbaad085ce4b.or iginal.png[/img]


Key Takeaway Points:


* OPEC+ plans to boost production in 2025, aiming to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by 2026, pushing crude prices lower.
* The US imposes record-high tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, raising concerns about global economic stability and market declines. Crude Oil prices decline as a result.
* Rising tariffs and inflation add uncertainty, with economists speculating the Fed may act sooner than expected.
* Technical analysis shows a bearish trend, but the price of Crude Oil is also nearing the key support levels at $66.70 per barrel.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 22nd November 2024.


BTC flirts with $100K, Stocks higher, Eurozone PMI signals recession risk.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Geopolitical risks are back in the spotlight on fears of escalation in the Ukraine-Russia after Russia reportedly used a new ICBM to retaliate against Ukraine’s use of US and UK made missiles to attack inside Russia.
*The markets continue to assess the election results as President-elect Trump fills in his cabinet choices, with the key Treasury Secretary spot still open.
*The Fed’s rate path continues to be debated with a -25 bp December cut seen as 50-50.
*Earnings season is coming to an end after mixed reports, though AI remains a major driver.
*Profit taking and rebalancing into year-end are adding to gyrations too.
*Wall Street rallied, led by the Dow’s 1.06% broadbased pop. The S&P500 advanced 0.53% and the NASDAQ inched up 0.03%.
*Asian stocks rose after Nvidia’s rally. Nikkei added 1% to 38,415.32 after the Tokyo inflation data slowed to 2.3% in October from 2.5% in the prior month, reaching its lowest level since January. The rally was also supported by chip-related stocks tracked Nvidia.
*Overnight-indexed swaps indicate that it’s certain the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points on Nov. 27, with a 22% chance of a 75 basis points reduction.
*European stocks futures climbed even though German Q3 GDP growth revised down to 0.1% q/q from the 0.2% q/q reported initially.
*Cryptocurrency market has gained approximately $1 trillion since Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 election. Recent announcement for the SEC boosted cryptos. Chair Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, the day Trump is set to be inaugurated. Gensler has pushed for more protections for crypto investors. MicroStrategy Inc.’s plans to accelerate purchases of the token, and the debut of options on US Bitcoin ETFs also support this rally.
*Trump’s transition team has begun discussions on the possibility of creating a new White House position focused on digital asset policy.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The US Dollar recovered overnight and closed at 107.00.
*Bitcoin currently at 99,300, flirting with a run toward the 100,000 level.
*The EURUSD drifts below 1.05, the GBPUSD dips to June’s bottom at 1.2570, while USDJPY rebounded to 154.94.
*The AUDNZD spiked to 2-year highs amid speculation the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate by more than 50 bps next week.
*Oil surged 2.12% to $70.46.
*Gold spiked to 2,697 after escalation alerts between Russia and Ukraine. Heightened geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold has surged by 30% this year. Haven demand balanced out the pressure from a strong USD following mixed US labor data. Silver rose 0.9% to 31.38, while palladium increased by 0.9% to 1,040.85 per ounce. Platinum remained unchanged.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th December 2024.


GBPUSD: Strong UK Data Fuels Expectations of BoE Hawkishness!



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


*UK salaries increased to 5.2%, up from 4.3% the previous month and significantly higher than analysts’ expectations.
*Analysts expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday. Higher UK salaries to prompt a hawkish BoE.
*The Great British Pound Index trades 0.13% higher this morning as the UK only adds 300 unemployment claims.
*The Australian Dollar loses gains from Monday’s trading session. The AUD and NZD are the day’s worst performing currencies so far.
*Traders continue to expect 0.25% by the Federal Reserve. The USD remains pressured while stocks rise.


GBPUSD - Strong Employment Data for the UK Boosts GBP Demand!


The GBPUSD is trading 0.21% higher as we edge closer to the London open. Traders should note that the price of the GBPUSD rose almost 0.30% as the UK’s employment data was made public. Prior to this the exchange rate was trading 0.10% lower. The upward price movement this week is primarily related to the upcoming Bank of England interest rate decision where investors believe the BoE will vote for a pause.





After the release of the UK’s employment data for November the chances of a pause have increased. The UK’s Unemployment Claimant Count Change saw only 300 more unemployed individuals making claims. This is the lowest Claimant Count Change since June 2023. In addition to this, the UK’s Quarterly Average Salary Index rose to 5.2%, 0.6% higher than the previous month. The announcement will further prompt the BoE to take a more hawkish stance and less adjustments in the upcoming quarter.


The hawkishness of the Bank of England is one of the reasons the GBP has performed well in the past 24 hours. Although, the expected upcoming Federal Reserve 0.25% cut is also supporting the GBPUSD. However, if the Federal Reserve decides to make a shock decision and not cut interest rates, the GBPUSD could quickly decline. Most analysts believe the Federal Reserve will adjust 0.25%, but most have not completely withdrawn the possibility of a pause after the US increase rose to 2.7%.


GBPUSD - Technical Analysis and Upcoming News


On a 2-hour timeframe, the GBPUSD is trading with a slight bullish bias as the price is trading above the 75-Bar EMA and the RSI’s neutral level but below the 100-Bar SMA. In order for the GBPUSD to witness strong bullish signals ideally today’s US Retail Sales data will read lower than expected and the Fed will announce its 0.25% cut. If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, the GBPUSD could correct back down to 1.26075. Otherwise, the Cable could rise to the previous price rate which saw an average price at 1.27464.





The significant economic release for the next 24-hours will be the US Retail Sales this afternoon. Analysts expect Retail Sales for the US to rise 0.6% MoM and the Core Retail Sales 0.4%. Tomorrow morning traders' attention will turn to the UK’s inflation rate. Analysts expect the UK inflation rate to increase from 2.3% to 2.6%, the highest since April 2024 but not significantly higher than the BoE’s target of 2.00%.


Gold and the US Dollar


Gold's price has also significantly declined over the past 2 days which may give the interpretation of a hawkish Fed. Individuals trading the GBPUSD are also closely monitoring the price of Gold and the US Dollar Index for clarity and confirmation of their signals.


However, the market is undergoing a local correction: according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report, net speculative positions in gold rose significantly last week, reaching 275.6 thousand compared to 259.7 thousand the previous week. Investors are actively increasing long positions, anticipating further price growth. Therefore, order flow analysts in Gold are also potentially indicating a 0.25% cut in interest rates.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.