HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 22nd October 2024.


Stocks’ rally ran out of steam?



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*A number of factors weighed on Treasuries and EGBs, but the underlying element was inflation anxiety. Several factors, including concerns over bond supply and stronger US economic data, are contributing to the bond selloff.
*The resilience of the US economy, diminishing expectations for Fed rate cuts, the bounce in Oil prices, the acceleration in rate cut prospects from the BoC, BoE, and ECB, fears of fiscal largess, and the massive stimulus from China all added to the likelihood price pressures could remain sticky.
*Wall Street was mixed in relatively quiet action.
*Additionally, traders are betting on the risk of a Republican win in the US election, which could lead to looser fiscal policy and increased tariffs under Donald Trump, potentially worsening the federal deficit and stoking inflation.
*Asian equities declined for a 2nd consecutive day, along with bonds, as traders reassessed cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. This followed a decline in US equities after a strong run-up to all-time highs.
*Australian and New Zealand bonds also fell.
*Investors in Japan pulled back ahead of the upcoming general election on Sunday, with stocks, bonds, and the Yen all declining simultaneously amid polls suggesting the ruling coalition could lose its majority.
*The Nikkei dropped 1.4%, reaching its lowest level since early October.
*Gold rose to $2,733.41 in Asia, following Monday’s record high of $2,740.59. Gold has surged nearly 30% this year, hitting successive all-time highs, with momentum accelerating as the Fed pivoted to cutting rates. Hedge funds have been increasing net-long positions in gold, and ETF inflows have also contributed to the rally. Traders are also adjusting portfolios ahead of the US election on Nov. 5, with gold seen as a safe bet during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex hit a multi-month high, largely on the less dovish view on Fed policy and reached 104.00, the first time at that level since late July.
*The USDJPY rallied to 151 for the first time since July.
*Oil prices increased 1.9% to $70.54 per barrel.
*Gold relinquished another new high at $2740.59 before closing down -0.02% at $2720.85 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th November 2024.


Monday Market Analysis and the Week Ahead!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


*The NASDAQ inches up ahead of NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report. NVIDIA will release their earnings report on Wednesday.
*Analysts expect NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.74 and Revenue to rise by $3 billion.
*The US Dollar remains strong as investors contemplate whether the Federal Reserve will pause in December. The Fed Chairman advises the US economy remains strong and the employment sector stable.
*The GBP was the best-performing currency in the Asian session, but will this continue as London starts trading?


NASDAQ – Investors Turn Their Attention To NVIDIA Earnings!


The NASDAQ fell for 5 consecutive days last week due to the US consumer and producer inflation striking fear amongst investors. The US inflation rate rose from 2.4% to 2.6% and the producer inflation from 1.9% to 2.4%. In addition to this the Federal Reserve advises the US economy remains strong and the employment sector stable. As a result, only 65% of investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, particularly lower than the previous weeks.


Though, certain key events could prompt higher demand and investors to contemplate buying the NASDAQ at the lower price. The higher demand is also in line with what many price theories would suggest. The NASDAQ’s average resistance point from October is at $20,511.29. The price has now dropped below this level and many price theories indicate that a retracement will end around this price. However, analysts would also urge investors to consider what else will drive investors to buy, not solely the price.





For this reason, investors will be closely watching NVIDIA’s Quarterly Earnings Report on Wednesday. NVIDIA is the NASDAQ’s most influential stock holding a weight of 8.69% and is already up 0.52% in pre-hours trading. The market expects NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.74 and Revenue to rise by $3 billion. If the company beats these expectations, the stock is likely to rise and can support the NASDAQ. On Monday, investors will keep this in mind while trading.


Besides the upcoming earnings report investors are also monitoring the volatility in the Bond Market and the VIX Index. Bond yields continue to rise which is a concern for the stock market. The US 10 Year Treasury is up 14 points, however, the VIX index is 1.45% lower which is known to be positive. Buyers will be hoping for the VIX to remain low and for bond yields to drop. Whereas, sellers will be hoping for bond yields to rise further and the VIX to correct back upwards.


GBPUSD – Will The Cable Retrace After A Seven-Day Decline?


The GBPUSD has declined for seven consecutive days which is a price movement which has not happened before in 2024. In addition to this, the exchange rate has fallen back to the support level from June and August 2024. Therefore investors are considering whether the GBPUSD will retrace slightly higher on Monday. A retracement in the short term could potentially take the price to the resistance level at 1.26810 or 1.27190.





A retracement is possible according to analysts as the GBP is the best performing currency of the day and due to the low price. In addition to this, the US Dollar is not expected to be influenced by any economic releases until Friday, when the US as well as the UK will release their Purchasing Managers’ Index, whereas the UK will release the Monetary Policy Report tomorrow morning and their Retail Sales within the week.


In terms of potential areas to consider speculating a buy, some traders may take into consideration the breakout level at 1.26270 or once 65% of the previous swing has been made. This would be at the 1.26314 price.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.