HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 21st October 2024.


Gold at historic high, US equities nearly at record high!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*Global financial markets are being influenced by the health of the US & Chinese economies, alongside the impact of Middle East conflicts and broader geopolitical concerns.Chinese banks’ decision to lower lending rates follows a series of government measures aimed at spurring economic growth and stabilizing the housing market.
*Wall Street finished in the green on the day and for the week. Earnings beats added to signs of a strong economy and a pick up in big tech to boost the major averages.
*The Dow rallied another 0.09% to 43,275 for its 39th record high of the year. The S&P500 was 0.40% higher at 5864, its 47th peak for 2024.
*Asian markets showed mixed performance as investors awaited new catalysts for trading.
*Gold surged to a record high, $2732, with silver, palladium, and platinum also rising, driven by rising demand amid Middle East tensions and positioning ahead of the upcoming US presidential election.
*Oil prices ticked higher after sharp declines the previous week, as concerns eased over potential Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities in retaliation for a missile attack earlier in the month. Iran, a major crude producer, plays a key role in global exports, particularly to China. Lingering concerns over China’s demand have also weighed on oil prices.
*Big week ahead with: BoC rate decision, lots of ECB & Fed Speeches, global PMIs, US retail sales, earnings from Tesla, Verizon, Coca-Cola, IBM and Amazon.

As the US election approaches, investors are positioning themselves for potential outcomes, with odds leaning toward a Trump victory and Republican control of Congress. Traders are reviving bets on assets that performed well after Trump’s 2016 win, particularly focusing on the impact of potential policies like increased trade tariffs.

Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex pulled back to 103.40.
*The USDJPY fell to 149.07, as the Yen strengthened for a 2nd day against the US Dollar, as traders positioned for Japan’s parliamentary election on Sunday. Polls suggest that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito coalition could fall below the 233-seat majority threshold.
*Oil prices closed in the red, testing $68.69 per barrel before closing -1.8% lower at $69.37 per barrel and the weakest of the month, largely on supply concerns.
*Bitcoin neared $70,000 today, supported by strong inflows into ETFs ($2.4 bln) and optimism regarding US regulatory developments for the largest digital asset.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 15th November 2024.


Treasuries cheapen slightly, Wall Street slips after Powell’s remarks.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


In the US session, the comments from Fed Chair Powell suggesting the FOMC might be pausing rate cuts weighed on Treasuries and Wall Street, keeping the US Dollar firm. Powell said the data are not showing the need for the FOMC to hurry with rate cuts. His remarks followed on the heels of the stronger than expected PPI and jobless claims data.


Asia & European Sessions:


*US: Producer prices exceeded expectations, and jobless claims hit their lowest since May. Policymakers called for caution on rate cuts amid strong economic performance, lingering inflation, and market uncertainty.
*Equity Futures Decline in US and Europe: Futures for Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.7%, and S&P500 contracts extended losses after the benchmark declined 0.6%.
*Asian markets, in contrast, saw gains, with MSCI’s regional index rising on signs of economic resilience in China.
*China’s retail sales grew at their fastest pace in eight months, although the CSI 300 Index fell.
*Emerging markets equities were set for their worst week since June 2022, while emerging markets currencies neared year-to-date losses.
*US automakers like Tesla and Rivian dropped on reports that Trump might remove the $7,500 EV tax credit.Walt Disney shares surged after reporting better-than-expected profits.
*Bitcoin slid back to $87k territory, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there was no need to hurry interest-rate cuts. That left the token about $6,500 below a record high set on Wednesday. Markets seem to be cooling down at the end of the week.
*On the geopolitical front, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed interest in resolving the conflict with Ukraine. This announcement came alongside President Trump’s endorsement of peaceful solutions, raising market hopes for a ceasefire and potential economic recovery in Eastern Europe. Analysts noted that an end to the conflict could spur economic activity and increase demand for cryptocurrency services.
*MicroStrategy made a significant $2 billion acquisition, adding nearly 25,000 BTC to its reserves. Institutional investments like these are seen as potentially stabilizing Bitcoin’s volatility and enhancing liquidity.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The US Dollar was set to gain over 1.4% for the week despite a slight drop on Friday. Gains were driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments about a gradual approach to rate cuts.
*The Yen recovered following Japan’s Finance Minister’s statement on monitoring the forex market. It is currently at 155.75.
*Oil headed for a weekly loss, impacted by a stronger Dollar and oversupply concerns for next year.
*Gold remained near a 2-month low. Bullion is currently at $2567, as the USDIndex remains on an uptrend and flirts with the 107 level. The precious metal is still around 25% higher than a year ago. Silver is once again underperforming and copper, and steel prices are also falling as markets weigh the impact of weak Chinese growth.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 3rd December 2024.


High Bond Yields Boost Euro, But ECB Signals December Cut!



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


*The French government is close to collapse due to the French Prime Minister’s persistence on the latest budget.
*French bond yields rise to their highest since 2012 and the Euro attempts to correct upwards during this morning’s session.
*According to state central banks, the ECB will continue cutting interest rates in December. Is the current bullish Euro temporary?
*The SNP500 renewed its highs for a second consecutive day mainly due to gains from Meta, Tesla and Microsoft.


EURUSD – ECB Members Indicate Cut For December!


The US Dollar is declining in value against most currencies this morning after significant gains on Monday. However, the performance throughout the week will depend on the JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, NFP and US Unemployment Rate.





Positive dynamics have been unfolding amid Trump’s warning to BRICS nations against creating a currency alternative to the US Dollar, threatening 100% tariffs on their exports. Experts fear this signals a potential trade war with China, India, Russia, and others. Moscow countered that forcing reliance on the Dollar could erode its appeal as a reserve currency.


Meanwhile, investors await November employment data. With private consumption rising (2.1% to 2.3%) and core inflation increasing (2.7% to 2.8%), further labor market strength could challenge a December rate cut of 25 basis points. Most experts still expect the Fed to proceed, but a pause in rate cuts is anticipated early next year.


Currently, the Euro is the second best performing currency of the day behind the Australian Dollar. Many believe this is partially due to the competitive price and high Bond Yields. However, this can quickly change as the ECB’s dovishness and France’s political and budget crisis continue. ECB Governing Board member Yannis Stournaras indicated today that interest rates are likely to be cut further in December, with experts anticipating a 25 basis point reduction.


For the Euro to maintain a buy signal in the short-term, the price will need to rise above $2,647.92 and this afternoon’s JOLTS Job Opening to fall below expectations.


SNP500 – Stocks Reach All-Time High!


The SNP500 so far this year is trading 27.50% higher and is at an all time high. This is mainly due to gains from Meta, Tesla and Microsoft. On Monday, 59% of the most influential stocks rose in value.


Wedbush Securities reaffirmed an “Outperform” rating on Apple shares with a $300 target, citing a potential record 240 million iPhone sales in fiscal 2025, driven by the new Apple Intelligence AI feature. Last month, Apple reported $94.9 billion in revenue and $1.64 EPS, beating forecasts and last year’s figures.


The performance of the SNP500 will depend on this week’s employment data, similar to the US Dollar. Most analysts believe the ideal scenario for the stock market is for the data to come in as expected.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 11th September 2024.

Market Update – Safe Havens in Demand; Eyes on CPI.

Investors remain cautious about the gloomy outlook for China’s economy & worry that the Fed has delayed easing monetary policy. Traders are anticipating at least 1 significant rate cut this year, ahead of the CPI report, which is expected to show modest inflation growth.

Asia & European Sessions:

*Asian equities dropped for a 3rd consecutive session, with Japan and Hong Kong leading the downturn.
*US stock futures slid overnight by 0.6%, as renewed fears of slowing growth in major economies coincided with oil prices stabilizing below $70 and global bond yields hitting a 2-year low.
*Harris-Trump’s debate over the state of the economy and US-China relations had an insignificant impact on the markets. Harris saw her odds of winning the election rise on PredictIt from 53% to 56% following the debate.
*BOJ policy member Junko Nakagawa hinted at the possibility of further interest rate hikes, boosting Yen to December’s highs. While many economists predict the BOJ will wait until later this year or early next year to raise rates, the next decision is scheduled for next week.
*The CHF is at decades highs against USD, supporting speculation for an aggressive interest rate cut on September 26. Markets expect a 25bps cut, while the likelihood of a 50 bps cut has been increasing.
*The UK economy unexpectedly stagnated in July. GDP has stagnated for two months now, suggesting that despite the robust survey numbers, Q3 GDP growth is likely to disappoint. With interest rates down and wage growth still robust, construction and consumption should get a boost, although this side of the budget there is still a lot of uncertainty that is likely to hold consumers and companies back. For the BoE it won’t be enough to prompt back to back cuts, but it will justify the controversial decision to lower rates last month.
*CPI preview: The August CPI report will be the highlight, just in case there are any surprises that could tip the policy outlook. We expect gains of 0.2% for both headline and core after 0.2% increases for both in July. As-expected results would see the y/y headline sliding to 2.6% from 2.9% in July. Also, the core y/y gain should hold steady at 3.2% in July. Such results should not deter the FOMC from cutting rates.

A higher inflation reading today could lead to increased volatility ,while a softer number might give the Fed more room to cut, but could also signal faster-than-expected economic slowdown.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The Yen surged to its strongest level against the US Dollar since December, recovering its yearly losses. It is currently at 141.40 after retesting the 140.696 level.
*The USDCHF drifted further to a 13 year bottom, with CHF and JPY buoyed by faltering carry trades funded through low-interest currencies and increased demand for safe-haven assets. EURCHF remains below its 2015 bottom.
*Bitcoin dipped to $56k again due to Trump’s support for the cryptocurrency sector.
*Oil extended the month’s downleg to 65.34, dropping by nearly 20% this quarter, as worries about slowing growth in the US and China dampen demand.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 04th October 2024.


Investors Increase Jobs Data Expectations As The Dollar Strengthens!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


*The US Dollar increases in value for a fourth consecutive day as the NFP release edges closer.
*US economic data continues to support a soft landing and gradual interest rate cuts.
*US ISM Services PMI beat expectations and rose to an 18-month high.
*Oil prices rise to a 30-day high as Israel confirms the IDF will retaliate against Iran’s latest strikes.


NZDUSD – Markets Expect The RBNZ To Cut, USD Depends On Jobs Data!


The NZDUSD continues to trade downwards for a third day and has done so while only forming one minor retracement. Traders now question how far the exchange rate can fall?





Price action is currently indicating that the market is attempting to drive the exchange rate lower as the Federal Reserve dials down its dovish tone. So far, the price potential looks on track to decline closer to the previous support levels. The closest support level can be seen at 0.61514 and then 0.61234. However, if it is able to do so will depend on the upcoming economic data, particularly this afternoon’s US employment data.


The market has raised their NFP Employment Change expectations to 150,000 for September. However, participants continue to predict no change for the Unemployment Rate. If the NFP rises above the expected figure while the Unemployment Rate remains the same or falls, the data would potentially support the USD further. In addition to this, the next Federal Reserve rate decision in November will most definitely be a 25-basis point cut. This would be key for the NZDUSD to continue its bearish trend back to the 0.61234 level.


On the other hand, investors also should note that the RBNZ will also confirm their rate decision on Wednesday 9th. Therefore, can the price action change as we approach the weekend and next week’s rate decision? This is something investors will need to monitor. Though, so far the worst performing currency of the week continues to be the New Zealand Dollar along with the Japanese Yen.


House prices in New Zealand fell for the seventh consecutive month, though at a slower rate, dropping by just 0.5% following a decrease in borrowing costs, according to economists at CoreLogic NZ. This trend highlights a reduction in purchasing power amid a slowing economy, as rising unemployment starts to impact household incomes. The outlook could shift if monetary authorities maintain their dovish approach at their upcoming meeting on October 9th. Notably, this stance has already helped bring the average two-year mortgage rate below 6.0%.


If the above data does prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates, the NZD could witness stronger pressure. The Official Cash Rate is currently at 5.25% and analysts expect the Central Bank to cut a further 0.50% to 4.75%.





When evaluating the price movement on the two hour timeframe, the NZDUSD is finding support at the same price but the resistance is not yet clear. This also indicates that sellers remain considerably active. The support level can be seen at 0.62066 and the price has crossed downwards which indicates a sell signal. Though some traders may wish for the support level to be broken before speculating downward price movement.


Furthermore, on the 5-Minute Chart the NZDUSD trades below the 200-bar SMA and on the 2-Hour Chart below the 75-bar EMA. This indicates the trend could potentially continue but traders will need to be cautious about volatility and timing.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 22nd October 2024.


Stocks’ rally ran out of steam?



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*A number of factors weighed on Treasuries and EGBs, but the underlying element was inflation anxiety. Several factors, including concerns over bond supply and stronger US economic data, are contributing to the bond selloff.
*The resilience of the US economy, diminishing expectations for Fed rate cuts, the bounce in Oil prices, the acceleration in rate cut prospects from the BoC, BoE, and ECB, fears of fiscal largess, and the massive stimulus from China all added to the likelihood price pressures could remain sticky.
*Wall Street was mixed in relatively quiet action.
*Additionally, traders are betting on the risk of a Republican win in the US election, which could lead to looser fiscal policy and increased tariffs under Donald Trump, potentially worsening the federal deficit and stoking inflation.
*Asian equities declined for a 2nd consecutive day, along with bonds, as traders reassessed cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. This followed a decline in US equities after a strong run-up to all-time highs.
*Australian and New Zealand bonds also fell.
*Investors in Japan pulled back ahead of the upcoming general election on Sunday, with stocks, bonds, and the Yen all declining simultaneously amid polls suggesting the ruling coalition could lose its majority.
*The Nikkei dropped 1.4%, reaching its lowest level since early October.
*Gold rose to $2,733.41 in Asia, following Monday’s record high of $2,740.59. Gold has surged nearly 30% this year, hitting successive all-time highs, with momentum accelerating as the Fed pivoted to cutting rates. Hedge funds have been increasing net-long positions in gold, and ETF inflows have also contributed to the rally. Traders are also adjusting portfolios ahead of the US election on Nov. 5, with gold seen as a safe bet during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex hit a multi-month high, largely on the less dovish view on Fed policy and reached 104.00, the first time at that level since late July.
*The USDJPY rallied to 151 for the first time since July.
*Oil prices increased 1.9% to $70.54 per barrel.
*Gold relinquished another new high at $2740.59 before closing down -0.02% at $2720.85 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th November 2024.


Monday Market Analysis and the Week Ahead!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


*The NASDAQ inches up ahead of NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report. NVIDIA will release their earnings report on Wednesday.
*Analysts expect NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.74 and Revenue to rise by $3 billion.
*The US Dollar remains strong as investors contemplate whether the Federal Reserve will pause in December. The Fed Chairman advises the US economy remains strong and the employment sector stable.
*The GBP was the best-performing currency in the Asian session, but will this continue as London starts trading?


NASDAQ – Investors Turn Their Attention To NVIDIA Earnings!


The NASDAQ fell for 5 consecutive days last week due to the US consumer and producer inflation striking fear amongst investors. The US inflation rate rose from 2.4% to 2.6% and the producer inflation from 1.9% to 2.4%. In addition to this the Federal Reserve advises the US economy remains strong and the employment sector stable. As a result, only 65% of investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, particularly lower than the previous weeks.


Though, certain key events could prompt higher demand and investors to contemplate buying the NASDAQ at the lower price. The higher demand is also in line with what many price theories would suggest. The NASDAQ’s average resistance point from October is at $20,511.29. The price has now dropped below this level and many price theories indicate that a retracement will end around this price. However, analysts would also urge investors to consider what else will drive investors to buy, not solely the price.





For this reason, investors will be closely watching NVIDIA’s Quarterly Earnings Report on Wednesday. NVIDIA is the NASDAQ’s most influential stock holding a weight of 8.69% and is already up 0.52% in pre-hours trading. The market expects NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.74 and Revenue to rise by $3 billion. If the company beats these expectations, the stock is likely to rise and can support the NASDAQ. On Monday, investors will keep this in mind while trading.


Besides the upcoming earnings report investors are also monitoring the volatility in the Bond Market and the VIX Index. Bond yields continue to rise which is a concern for the stock market. The US 10 Year Treasury is up 14 points, however, the VIX index is 1.45% lower which is known to be positive. Buyers will be hoping for the VIX to remain low and for bond yields to drop. Whereas, sellers will be hoping for bond yields to rise further and the VIX to correct back upwards.


GBPUSD – Will The Cable Retrace After A Seven-Day Decline?


The GBPUSD has declined for seven consecutive days which is a price movement which has not happened before in 2024. In addition to this, the exchange rate has fallen back to the support level from June and August 2024. Therefore investors are considering whether the GBPUSD will retrace slightly higher on Monday. A retracement in the short term could potentially take the price to the resistance level at 1.26810 or 1.27190.





A retracement is possible according to analysts as the GBP is the best performing currency of the day and due to the low price. In addition to this, the US Dollar is not expected to be influenced by any economic releases until Friday, when the US as well as the UK will release their Purchasing Managers’ Index, whereas the UK will release the Monetary Policy Report tomorrow morning and their Retail Sales within the week.


In terms of potential areas to consider speculating a buy, some traders may take into consideration the breakout level at 1.26270 or once 65% of the previous swing has been made. This would be at the 1.26314 price.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 4th December 2024.


Australian Dollar Dives To Significant Support Level!



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


*US JOLTS Job Openings beat expectations but remains below 8 million job vacancies.
*Australia’s Gross Domestic Product increases to a 5-month high but does not reach previous expectations.
*The Australian Dollar significantly declines during this morning’s trading session due to the GDP miss.
*US stocks shot up after the release of the latest US Job Vacancies and the NASDAQ rose to an all-time high.
*The Euro and the US Dollar continue to move sideways as investors await further US employment data and clarity of the French political crisis.


NASDAQ Rises To An All-Time High, But Risks Remain!


The NASDAQ rose to a new all-time high at 5:40 GMT, during this morning’s Asian session. The bullish price movement seems to be due to the JOLTS Job Openings which painted a picture of resilience but was not high enough to indicate a pause in December from the Federal Reserve. According to economists, the Fed most likely would have drawn the line at 8 million vacancies. However, traders should note that the spotlight remains on NFP, the US Unemployment Rate and the inflation rate. Yesterday’s JOLTS Job Vacancies rose to 7.74 million.





Investors should also note that the above release is the second positive economic data for the US after Monday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI which rose to a 5-month high (48.4). Another positive factor is the NASDAQ remaining above the Volume-weighted average price, as the VIX index falls again and the High Low Index also continues to increase.


However, investors should note that risks still remain. Positive economic and employment data could pressure the Federal Reserve to keep the Fund Rate unchanged. This will particularly become possible if we do not see a sizable decline in inflation. Bond yields did fall towards the end of November which signals a cut from the Fed, but the 10-year bond yields are slowly rising this week.


The NASDAQ has been increasing in value for five consecutive days, and the index is trading at an all-time high. If the index fully forms a bullish candlestick throughout today’s session, investors will become vigilant of a selloff and retracement. Nonetheless, technical analysis and indicators continue to provide buy signals due to the bullish momentum. Currently, the RSI indicates the index is overbought on the 2-hour chart on a period of 18.


AUDUSD – Poor Economic Data Drives The Australian Dollar To 4-Month Low!


The AUDUSD exchange rate is trading at a 4-month low after the positive JOLTS Job data, but when analyzing each currency individually, it is clear the main driver is the Australian Dollar. The worst performing currency of the day is the Australian Dollar while the US Dollar is unchanged. What’s driving the AUD lower?





The decline is largely due to the Gross Domestic Product which rose from 0.2% to 0.3%, but fell short of the 0.5% which traders were expecting. Last Thursday, Australia’s Senate approved amendments to the Reserve Bank Act, creating a Monetary Policy Committee and a separate Board for operational management. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the reforms would enhance the RBA’s independence, clarify its mandate, modernize its structure, and align it with regulators like the Bank of England.


The price of the US Dollar will depend on the upcoming employment data and on the Fed’s monetary policy move. The Federal Reserve has already done the unexpected on one occasion this year, if they decide to pause in December, the US Dollar is likely to significantly rise.


The AUDUSD has fallen 9 of the past 10 weeks and the price is now considerably close to a major support level at 0.63470.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.