HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 9th September 2024.

Market Update – How Aggressively Might the Fed Cut Interest Rates?

The August jobs data did not provide the clarity on the rate outlook that had been hoped and left the markets to their own devices. Concurrently, comments from Fed Governor Waller left the door open for an aggressive -50 bps cut after he said he favored front-loading policy action, but stressed only if appropriate.

Asia & European Sessions:

*European & US equity markets open in the green, following a recent selloff due to weaker-than-expected US jobs data. Wall Street plunged on Friday, as the NASDAQ collapsed -2.55%, with the S&P 500 and Dow down -1.73% and 1.01%, respectively.
*Asian markets followed the global downturn, with stocks in Taiwan, Australia, and Japan experiencing declines. Nikkei dropped for a 5th consecutive day.
*Asia’s benchmark index fell to a 3-week low. Chinese stocks are on the brink of falling to the 5-year low seen in February due to weak earnings and economic recovery. The CSI 300 Index has fallen over 13% since its peak in May, reflecting ineffective policy efforts to revive the economy. Market pessimism in China is fueled by deflationary pressures, weak consumer demand, and a prolonged property slump.
*Economic experts suggest that unless there is a significant policy shift, bearish sentiment may persist.
*Japan: Q2 GDP was revised down to a 0.7% pace, bouncing from the -0.6% contraction in Q1. It ties Q2 2023 for the fastest pace of growth since the 1.3% rate in Q1 2023. The deflator was revised up to a 3.2% y/y rate from 3.0% y/y.
*BOJ: The data leave the door open for another BOJ hike down the road, though we suspect policymakers will be sidelined at the upcoming meeting on September 20 to further assess conditions.
*China CPI edged up to a 0.6% y/y rate in August. It is a seventh month in positive territory after four straight months of deflation (from October through January). Nevertheless, price weakness continues to reflect the slack in demand and the very sluggish growth pace in the economy. And even more serious, PPI plunged to -1.8% y/y in August from -0.8% y/y, the biggest drop since April. And producer prices have been in deflation since September 2022.

While a September Fed rate cut is expected, uncertainty remains about the scale and frequency of future cuts.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDindex slumped to 100.58 before bouncing to a 101.187 close.
*The USDJPY lifted to 143.21. The Yen corrected, which helped to limit the slide in the Nikkei.
*The EURUSD and Cable are lower, at currently 1.1059 and 1.31 respectively.
*Oil drifted to $66.67 before recovering slightly to $68.20. Oil marked its lowest close since 2021 after a deep weekly loss pushed futures near levels regarded as oversold, with the focus on weather risks (Storm in Mexico) and reports this week that may clarify the demand outlook.
*Gold tumbling between $2485-2500.
*Iron ore prices fell below $90 per ton for the first time since 2022.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 24th September 2024.


Market Update – Risk-on Mood due to stimulus measures; Commodities climb.


Asia & European Sessions:


*More new highs were set on Wall Street today as the Fed’s jumbo rate cut continues to reverberate. Fedspeakers indicated more cuts are in the future.
*European stocks are poised for a positive open, following a rally in Asian markets driven by China’s latest economic stimulus efforts aimed at stabilizing its stock market.
*China’s plan to inject 800 billion yuan ($114 billion) in liquidity support for its stock market alongside measures allowing brokerages to access central bank funds to buy equities, boosted investors’ confidence. These moves are part of a broader stimulus package that includes cuts to short-term interest rates and reduced borrowing costs on up to $5.3 trillion in mortgages.
*While the market responded positively to these policies, analysts warn that the rally could be short-lived, as underlying issues like deflation remain unresolved.
*The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% for the 7th consecutive meeting, while leaving future policy options open.
*Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.5%, as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index marked its fourth consecutive daily gain. Hong Kong stocks surged over 4%.
*US Stock market remains positive, with the S&P rallying another 0.28% to 5719 while the Dow was up 0.15% to 42,125. This is the 40th new record this year on the former and the 30th for the latter. The NASDAQ rose 0.14% to 17,974.


Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex was up slightly to 100.898, but failed to hold the test of 101.229.
*Gold managed another fresh peak too, rising 0.18% to $2640 per ounce, supported by rising geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and expectations for further declines in interest rates.
USOil pr*ices recovered yesterday’s losses amid rising tensions in the Middle East after Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon.
*Μost Asian currencies strengthened against the US Dollar, with the Aussie rising against US dollar, i.e. AUDUSD falling to 0.6820, and the yield on 3-year bonds fluctuated.
*USDJPY retests 144.70 (top of falling triangle).


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th October 2024.


Global Markets Steady as China’s Economic Data Surprises, Gold Hits New Record.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


As the US economy continues to show resilience, traders further reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the remaining meetings of 2024. Strong US retail sales data for September exceeded forecasts, highlighting sustained consumer spending, which is powering economic growth.


Asia & European Sessions:


*A rally in risk and some unwinding of haven trades hit Treasuries.
*A stronger than expected September retail sales report weighed on Treasuries at it furthered expectations the FOMC will reduce rates at a more moderate pace into year end. And it added to prospects the Fed may only cut one more time this year with the November implied rate at -22 bps and the December contract at -41 bps.
*Asia equities rose earlier today as the central bank introduced new lending programs to boost corporate share buybacks and equity purchases. However Chinese equities edged down after official data showed slowing economic growth at 4.6% in the Q3 from 4.7% in Q2, underscoring investor uncertainty over government stimulus measures first announced in September.
*Netflix reported net income of $2.36 billion, roughly 6% above Wall Street predictions. Netflix saw a stronger-than-anticipated revenue boost in the latest quarter, alongside solid subscriber (5.1mln) growth, even with fewer blockbuster releases.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex climbed to 103.60,supported by widening rate and growth differentials. The downshift in expectations on Fed cuts, this week’s easing, albeit cautious, from the ECB, the chance for an aggressive -50 bp easing from the BoC, and the unwinding of BoJ rate hike outlooks have been supportive.
*The USDJPY broke to 150 level, the best since the end of July. It could rally further given the less dovish view on the Fed and if there are no signs of MoF intervention.
*The GBPUSD has stabilized and firmed slightly to 1.3060, but is largely recovering from the drop to 1.2990 which is the weakest since mid-August.
The EURUSD has slumped to 1.0807 and is the weakest since the end of July. Concurrently, USDCAD has risen to 1.3795, the highest since early August.
*Gold prices hit a record high, extending a long-running bullish trend as investors sought safe-haven assets. Gold spot prices rose to $2,713. The rise in gold prices, fueled by inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, has been consistent since late 2022.
*Bitcoin also saw gains, rising to $68,350, with some investors viewing it as a hedge similar to gold.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 13th November 2024.


Stocks Cautious Amid Upcoming US CPI & Yen Pressures.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


“Trump trade” has boosted the US Dollar and US stocks, but Trump’s policies may have less favorable effects on global assets. Trump’s plan to raise tariffs is expected to negatively impact economies worldwide, especially exporters like China.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Stock markets are turning cautious as markets prepare for Trump’s presidency. Growing concern that tariffs will disrupt global trade and fuel inflation has been denting sentiment.
*Indexes declined and Japan and Hong Kong, European markets are posting modest gains and US futures are in the red, as yields rise.
*Wall Street stumbled as the Trump trade ran out of steam after 5 straight days of gains on the S&P500 and Dow, along with 4 days of gains on the NASDAQ to more record highs.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The Yen weakened beyond 155 against the US Dollar for the first time since July, raising concerns that Japan might intervene in the currency market to curb its depreciation. A Bloomberg poll of 53 economists last month suggested intervention could be triggered at 150, with a median forecast of 160.
*A spike in Treasury yields is pressuring the Yen, with the two-year yield hitting its highest mark since July, driven by Trump’s economic agenda boosting US rates and the reduced cost of hedging due to the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts.
*The upcoming US data on CPI, PPI, and Retail sales could accelerate the Yen’s decline if the Ministry of Finance doesn’t step in with verbal warnings. Prolonged yen weakness may push the Bank of Japan to consider earlier rate hikes.
*Concerns over sticky high inflation ahead of the CPI report and concerns over potentially inflationary aspects of Trump’s fiscal policies exacerbated selling.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex is settling above 106.
*Oil declined -0.09% to $67.98 per barrel with Trump’s “drill baby drill” reverberating.
*Gold lost -0.82% to $2597.26 per ounce as interest rates surged. The rising Dollar also impacted commodities.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 10th September 2024.


Market Update – Markets prepare for US CPI & Harris-Trump high-stake debate.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Wall Street recovered slightly from Friday’s dip. Dip buying got the ball rolling and short covering has added to the bullish momentum.
*Expectations for a soft, rather than hard landing, with the FOMC expected to cut rates by only -25 bps rather than -50 bps have supported as well. The advent of the Treasury’s $119 bln in auctions, along with a heavy corporate calendar also weighed.
*Nvidia and Tesla have paced the strength in big tech. The Dow advanced 1.2%, with the S&P500 and NASDAQ climbing 1.16%. Strength was broadbased. Five of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains of better than 1%, led by consumer discretionary and IT.
*Sights are on today’s presidential debate and then CPI Wednesday.
*European stock markets are narrowly mixed in early trade, with the FTSE 100 underperforming, after a drop in the ILO unemployment rate. The overall labor market report was not as clear-cut, but the data will add to the arguments against back to back cuts and another move from the BoE this month.
*German HICP inflation was confirmed at 2.0% y/y. The data will add to the arguments in favor of a cautious cut from the ECB on Thursday.


Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDindex found its footing and rose to 101.68 from an overnight low of 101.14.
*The USDJPY lifted to 143.21. The Yen corrected, which helped to limit the slide in the Nikkei.
*Oil returned to $67.60 after Monday’s gain, driven by the return of a risk-on tone to wider markets.
*Gold edged up 0.36% to $2506.38 ahead of US Inflation tomorrow.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 03rd October 2024.


Dovish ECB Comments Send Euro Downward as Investors Eye US Jobs Data



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


*US employment data indicates a resilient employment sector ahead of tomorrow’s NFP data.
*Latvia’s governor, Mr Kazaks, says that officials have sufficient grounds to support further interest rate cuts at the October meeting
*Investors continue to predict a cautious 0.25% cut due to strong employment data.
*The US Dollar continues to be the week’s best performing currency due to a more hawkish approach and a lower risk appetite.


EURUSD – Investors Ditch the Euro For the US Dollar!


The market continues to drive the EURUSD lower due to expectations of the more competitive US market and monetary policy. In addition to this, investors are increasing exposure to the US Dollar due to a lower risk appetite while the Middle East conflict escalates. Yesterday’s Live Trading Session Click pointed out the sell indications between 1.10735 and 1.10684, of which now the price is trading 0.45% lower.





However, as the price is now extremely close to the previous support levels from September 3rd and 11th, Investors should be cautious of buyers re-entering the market at these levels. The support levels can be seen between 1.10256 and 1.10050. In order to break these levels, investors may require further drivers such as tomorrow’s US Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.


Analysts also expect the NFP Employment Change to add 144,000, very similar figures to the previous month. Though some economists now believe this data could beat expectations due to stronger employment data as NFP Friday approaches. Tomorrow’s employment data will trigger significantly higher volatility for the EURUSD.


The Institution For Supply Management (ISM) will publish their second PMI report of the week this afternoon. The Manufacturing PMI read lower than expectations, however, the market gave higher importance to the employment data. Yesterday’s ADP NFP Employment Change read 143,000 which is 19,000 more than the previous prediction. The higher ADP data was driven by leisure and entertainment (34K), construction (26K), and education and healthcare (24K). Today investors will turn their attention mainly to the US Services PMI as well as the Weekly Unemployment Claims.


Meanwhile, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos mentioned that short-term economic growth in the region could be slower than anticipated. However, he expects future recovery to gain momentum, driven by rising real household incomes and easing monetary policy. Latvia’s central bank governor, Martins Kazaks, added that officials have sufficient grounds to support further interest rate adjustments at the October meeting, citing slow wage growth, declining corporate profits, and weak economic recovery across much of Europe. The ECB’s dovish comments also continue to pressure the EURUSD.


Economists currently advise the European economy will not be able to see higher growth unless the ECB opts to cut interest rates to no more than 2%. For this reason, the Euro has been the worst performing currency of the past month only behind the Japanese Yen. Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut 0.25% in November and 0.25% in December.


The price movement of the exchange rate will largely be driven by the price movement of the US Dollar and US news. Therefore, the US Dollar Index will be key. If the ISM Services PMI and Weekly Unemployment Claims are lower than expectations, the EURUSD may be at a good level to retrace back upwards. This is due to the price being at a support level and having already fallen 1.65%. However, even with a retracement upwards, the EURUSD on the 2-Hour Chart remains below the trend-line and below the neutral level on most oscillators.


If the price remains below 1.10427, any short-term upward price movement will form nothing more than a retracement. As a result, medium-term buy signals potentially remain intact for the EURUSD.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 21st October 2024.


Gold at historic high, US equities nearly at record high!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*Global financial markets are being influenced by the health of the US & Chinese economies, alongside the impact of Middle East conflicts and broader geopolitical concerns.Chinese banks’ decision to lower lending rates follows a series of government measures aimed at spurring economic growth and stabilizing the housing market.
*Wall Street finished in the green on the day and for the week. Earnings beats added to signs of a strong economy and a pick up in big tech to boost the major averages.
*The Dow rallied another 0.09% to 43,275 for its 39th record high of the year. The S&P500 was 0.40% higher at 5864, its 47th peak for 2024.
*Asian markets showed mixed performance as investors awaited new catalysts for trading.
*Gold surged to a record high, $2732, with silver, palladium, and platinum also rising, driven by rising demand amid Middle East tensions and positioning ahead of the upcoming US presidential election.
*Oil prices ticked higher after sharp declines the previous week, as concerns eased over potential Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities in retaliation for a missile attack earlier in the month. Iran, a major crude producer, plays a key role in global exports, particularly to China. Lingering concerns over China’s demand have also weighed on oil prices.
*Big week ahead with: BoC rate decision, lots of ECB & Fed Speeches, global PMIs, US retail sales, earnings from Tesla, Verizon, Coca-Cola, IBM and Amazon.

As the US election approaches, investors are positioning themselves for potential outcomes, with odds leaning toward a Trump victory and Republican control of Congress. Traders are reviving bets on assets that performed well after Trump’s 2016 win, particularly focusing on the impact of potential policies like increased trade tariffs.

Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex pulled back to 103.40.
*The USDJPY fell to 149.07, as the Yen strengthened for a 2nd day against the US Dollar, as traders positioned for Japan’s parliamentary election on Sunday. Polls suggest that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito coalition could fall below the 233-seat majority threshold.
*Oil prices closed in the red, testing $68.69 per barrel before closing -1.8% lower at $69.37 per barrel and the weakest of the month, largely on supply concerns.
*Bitcoin neared $70,000 today, supported by strong inflows into ETFs ($2.4 bln) and optimism regarding US regulatory developments for the largest digital asset.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 15th November 2024.


Treasuries cheapen slightly, Wall Street slips after Powell’s remarks.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


In the US session, the comments from Fed Chair Powell suggesting the FOMC might be pausing rate cuts weighed on Treasuries and Wall Street, keeping the US Dollar firm. Powell said the data are not showing the need for the FOMC to hurry with rate cuts. His remarks followed on the heels of the stronger than expected PPI and jobless claims data.


Asia & European Sessions:


*US: Producer prices exceeded expectations, and jobless claims hit their lowest since May. Policymakers called for caution on rate cuts amid strong economic performance, lingering inflation, and market uncertainty.
*Equity Futures Decline in US and Europe: Futures for Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.7%, and S&P500 contracts extended losses after the benchmark declined 0.6%.
*Asian markets, in contrast, saw gains, with MSCI’s regional index rising on signs of economic resilience in China.
*China’s retail sales grew at their fastest pace in eight months, although the CSI 300 Index fell.
*Emerging markets equities were set for their worst week since June 2022, while emerging markets currencies neared year-to-date losses.
*US automakers like Tesla and Rivian dropped on reports that Trump might remove the $7,500 EV tax credit.Walt Disney shares surged after reporting better-than-expected profits.
*Bitcoin slid back to $87k territory, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there was no need to hurry interest-rate cuts. That left the token about $6,500 below a record high set on Wednesday. Markets seem to be cooling down at the end of the week.
*On the geopolitical front, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed interest in resolving the conflict with Ukraine. This announcement came alongside President Trump’s endorsement of peaceful solutions, raising market hopes for a ceasefire and potential economic recovery in Eastern Europe. Analysts noted that an end to the conflict could spur economic activity and increase demand for cryptocurrency services.
*MicroStrategy made a significant $2 billion acquisition, adding nearly 25,000 BTC to its reserves. Institutional investments like these are seen as potentially stabilizing Bitcoin’s volatility and enhancing liquidity.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The US Dollar was set to gain over 1.4% for the week despite a slight drop on Friday. Gains were driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments about a gradual approach to rate cuts.
*The Yen recovered following Japan’s Finance Minister’s statement on monitoring the forex market. It is currently at 155.75.
*Oil headed for a weekly loss, impacted by a stronger Dollar and oversupply concerns for next year.
*Gold remained near a 2-month low. Bullion is currently at $2567, as the USDIndex remains on an uptrend and flirts with the 107 level. The precious metal is still around 25% higher than a year ago. Silver is once again underperforming and copper, and steel prices are also falling as markets weigh the impact of weak Chinese growth.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 11th September 2024.

Market Update – Safe Havens in Demand; Eyes on CPI.

Investors remain cautious about the gloomy outlook for China’s economy & worry that the Fed has delayed easing monetary policy. Traders are anticipating at least 1 significant rate cut this year, ahead of the CPI report, which is expected to show modest inflation growth.

Asia & European Sessions:

*Asian equities dropped for a 3rd consecutive session, with Japan and Hong Kong leading the downturn.
*US stock futures slid overnight by 0.6%, as renewed fears of slowing growth in major economies coincided with oil prices stabilizing below $70 and global bond yields hitting a 2-year low.
*Harris-Trump’s debate over the state of the economy and US-China relations had an insignificant impact on the markets. Harris saw her odds of winning the election rise on PredictIt from 53% to 56% following the debate.
*BOJ policy member Junko Nakagawa hinted at the possibility of further interest rate hikes, boosting Yen to December’s highs. While many economists predict the BOJ will wait until later this year or early next year to raise rates, the next decision is scheduled for next week.
*The CHF is at decades highs against USD, supporting speculation for an aggressive interest rate cut on September 26. Markets expect a 25bps cut, while the likelihood of a 50 bps cut has been increasing.
*The UK economy unexpectedly stagnated in July. GDP has stagnated for two months now, suggesting that despite the robust survey numbers, Q3 GDP growth is likely to disappoint. With interest rates down and wage growth still robust, construction and consumption should get a boost, although this side of the budget there is still a lot of uncertainty that is likely to hold consumers and companies back. For the BoE it won’t be enough to prompt back to back cuts, but it will justify the controversial decision to lower rates last month.
*CPI preview: The August CPI report will be the highlight, just in case there are any surprises that could tip the policy outlook. We expect gains of 0.2% for both headline and core after 0.2% increases for both in July. As-expected results would see the y/y headline sliding to 2.6% from 2.9% in July. Also, the core y/y gain should hold steady at 3.2% in July. Such results should not deter the FOMC from cutting rates.

A higher inflation reading today could lead to increased volatility ,while a softer number might give the Fed more room to cut, but could also signal faster-than-expected economic slowdown.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The Yen surged to its strongest level against the US Dollar since December, recovering its yearly losses. It is currently at 141.40 after retesting the 140.696 level.
*The USDCHF drifted further to a 13 year bottom, with CHF and JPY buoyed by faltering carry trades funded through low-interest currencies and increased demand for safe-haven assets. EURCHF remains below its 2015 bottom.
*Bitcoin dipped to $56k again due to Trump’s support for the cryptocurrency sector.
*Oil extended the month’s downleg to 65.34, dropping by nearly 20% this quarter, as worries about slowing growth in the US and China dampen demand.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 04th October 2024.


Investors Increase Jobs Data Expectations As The Dollar Strengthens!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


*The US Dollar increases in value for a fourth consecutive day as the NFP release edges closer.
*US economic data continues to support a soft landing and gradual interest rate cuts.
*US ISM Services PMI beat expectations and rose to an 18-month high.
*Oil prices rise to a 30-day high as Israel confirms the IDF will retaliate against Iran’s latest strikes.


NZDUSD – Markets Expect The RBNZ To Cut, USD Depends On Jobs Data!


The NZDUSD continues to trade downwards for a third day and has done so while only forming one minor retracement. Traders now question how far the exchange rate can fall?





Price action is currently indicating that the market is attempting to drive the exchange rate lower as the Federal Reserve dials down its dovish tone. So far, the price potential looks on track to decline closer to the previous support levels. The closest support level can be seen at 0.61514 and then 0.61234. However, if it is able to do so will depend on the upcoming economic data, particularly this afternoon’s US employment data.


The market has raised their NFP Employment Change expectations to 150,000 for September. However, participants continue to predict no change for the Unemployment Rate. If the NFP rises above the expected figure while the Unemployment Rate remains the same or falls, the data would potentially support the USD further. In addition to this, the next Federal Reserve rate decision in November will most definitely be a 25-basis point cut. This would be key for the NZDUSD to continue its bearish trend back to the 0.61234 level.


On the other hand, investors also should note that the RBNZ will also confirm their rate decision on Wednesday 9th. Therefore, can the price action change as we approach the weekend and next week’s rate decision? This is something investors will need to monitor. Though, so far the worst performing currency of the week continues to be the New Zealand Dollar along with the Japanese Yen.


House prices in New Zealand fell for the seventh consecutive month, though at a slower rate, dropping by just 0.5% following a decrease in borrowing costs, according to economists at CoreLogic NZ. This trend highlights a reduction in purchasing power amid a slowing economy, as rising unemployment starts to impact household incomes. The outlook could shift if monetary authorities maintain their dovish approach at their upcoming meeting on October 9th. Notably, this stance has already helped bring the average two-year mortgage rate below 6.0%.


If the above data does prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates, the NZD could witness stronger pressure. The Official Cash Rate is currently at 5.25% and analysts expect the Central Bank to cut a further 0.50% to 4.75%.





When evaluating the price movement on the two hour timeframe, the NZDUSD is finding support at the same price but the resistance is not yet clear. This also indicates that sellers remain considerably active. The support level can be seen at 0.62066 and the price has crossed downwards which indicates a sell signal. Though some traders may wish for the support level to be broken before speculating downward price movement.


Furthermore, on the 5-Minute Chart the NZDUSD trades below the 200-bar SMA and on the 2-Hour Chart below the 75-bar EMA. This indicates the trend could potentially continue but traders will need to be cautious about volatility and timing.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

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