HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 17th October 2024.


Stocks steady ahead of ECB, BTC Up, Oil below $70.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*Wall Street, Treasuries, the US Dollar, and Gold all gained yesterday amid a variety of factors. Earnings beats, rate cut expectations, growth concerns, geopolitical risks, some stability in oil all contributed. The market continues to price for -25 bp rate cuts in November and December.
*The Dow bounced 0.79% to 43,077 to its 38th record high of the year. Financials helped pace after more earnings beats, this time from JPM. Weakness in some tech shares, including ASML, limited the advance in the S&P500 and NASDAQ.
*Asian shares predominantly rose today following stronger-than-expected earnings reports from major companies like Morgan Stanley and United Airlines. Chinese markets lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures.
*European stocks are expected to have a lackluster opening as traders await a decision from the ECB regarding monetary policy.
*The rally in Chinese shares lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures. The CSI 300 in China reversed a rally of up to 1.3% after officials revealed plans to expand support for “white list” projects to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) from the previously deployed 2.23 trillion yuan.
*ECB Preview: with headline inflation below target and signs that services price inflation has peaked, the ECB’s focus has switched from inflation risks to growth concerns. The flurry of comments from ECB officials over the past week have pretty much confirmed that Lagarde will deliver another 25 bp cut on Thursday. We expect the ECB to cut again in December, although the central bank head may once again stop short of committing to another move just yet. Even if the ECB cuts rates by a further 50 bp this year, policy settings will remain restrictive and the “end-rate” of the current easing cycle is likely to be higher than markets expected initially and clearly above the low point of the last easing cycle. That will likely keep bonds volatile.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex climbed to 103.55, a third straight session over 103 and is up 3 handles from the 100.79 close on September 30. The rally broken the 200-day SMA.
*Oil dipped below the $70.00 per barrel. Energy prices have generally been influenced by oil market fluctuations, particularly as fears diminish over potential Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities, which could disrupt exports to China and other regions. Additionally, concerns about demand strength amid China’s economic slowdown have impacted oil prices.
*Bitcoin rallied with markets viewing the climb as a sign that markets anticipate a victory for pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.
*Gold rose to $2685 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 12th November 2024.


Market Buzz: Trump Trade Impact!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


“Trump trade” has boosted the US Dollar and US stocks, but Trump’s policies may have less favorable effects on global assets. Trump’s plan to raise tariffs is expected to negatively impact economies worldwide, especially exporters like China.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Bitcoin Surge! Bitcoin broke $90K, driven by Trump trade once again. Bitcoin is up roughly 110% in 2024, helped by robust demand for dedicated US ETFs, interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and Trump’s cryptofriendly agenda.
*Crypto market capitalization has exceeded its pandemic-era peak, reaching $3.1 trillion. Traders are betting on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end, according to data from the Deribit exchange.
*Open interest — or outstanding contracts — for CME Group Inc. futures for Bitcoin and second-ranked Ether (ETHUSD) scaled records on Monday, a sign of growing engagement by US institutional investors.
*Asian shares dropped, alongside European and US equity futures, as traders evaluated the implications of President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda and potential cabinet choices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for a third consecutive day, driven by rising Treasury yields amid concerns that Trump’s proposed tax cuts could increase inflation.
*There are also reports that Trump is considering two individuals for prominent roles in his administration with track records of criticizing China.
*DAX and FTSE100 are down -1.1% and -0.5% respectively, after a pickup in German HICP inflation and higher than expected UK wage growth dampened easing expectations.
*Investors await the US CPI report for insights into the Fed’s easing path, as Trump’s inflationary policies may lead to fewer rate cuts.


Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex continues to rise and is currently at 105.75. It hit a 1-year high.
*EURUSD drifts to 1.0620 and GBPUSD is in a sell off, currently at 1.2800.
*Oil prices fell after their biggest 2-week decline, amid a weak demand outlook from China, a stronger US Dollar, and concerns over a potential oversupply.
*Crude oil has traded within a narrow range since mid-last month, influenced by Middle East tensions, the US election, and OPEC+ output decisions.
*Gold remains under pressure and is currently at just $2604.36 per ounce. It hit a one-month low, down 5% since Trump’s election victory, as a strong dollar and US equity rotation pressured the metal. Gold’s decline was also technical, breaking below the 50-day moving average, causing funds to cover long positions. Despite recent drops, gold remains up 25% for the year, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.v

[HFM]

Date: 27th November 2024.


S&P500 at its 52nd new peak for 2024; USD Firmer, Kiwi & Yen Up.





Asia & European Sessions:


*Wall Street rallied into the close with the S&P500 and Dow registering more record highs with the S&P500 climbing 0.57% to 6045, its 52nd new peak for 2024. The Dow rose 0.28% to 44,860.3 for its 46th record of the year. The NASDAQ advanced 0.63%.
*Trump named Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett to direct the National Economic Council. Greer was intimately involved in Trump’s first-term trade policy decisions.
*President Biden announced Israel and Hezbollah have reached a cease fire. Over the next 60 days the Lebanese army and state security will take control of their own territory and Israel will gradually withdraw its forces.
*FOMC minutes: Minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting revealed officials leaning toward a cautious approach to future rate cuts. All agreed to cut the rate by -25 bps and nearly all thought risks between achieving employment and inflation goals were “roughly in balance.” Upside risks to the inflation outlook were little changed, and while inflation had eased, it remained elevated. The implied December rate continues to hover around a 50-50 bet as we await the PCE price data Wednesday and the crucial jobs report on December 6. The January 2025 rate is priced for a total of 20 bps in cuts, with -75 bps by January 2026.
*RBNZ cut its cash rate by 50 bps, yet the Kiwi gained as traders analyzed the central bank’s rate outlook and the governor’s remarks.
*Chinese government approved a 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) bond quota, enabling two state-owned asset managers to issue bonds for funding projects aimed at spurring economic growth.
*Today: US inflation and economic growth may provide clues to the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex has dropped to currently 106.459.
*The Yen climbed with USDJPY pulling back to 151.82, while NZDUSD jumped to 0.5900 despite the RBNZ’s 50 bps rate cut.
*Oil prices stabilized at $68.84, with optimism over delayed OPEC+ output increases balancing the reduced geopolitical risk stemming from the ceasefire.
*Gold rebounds to 2653.54, with next Resistance at 2660-2664.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th September 2024.

Market Update – How Aggressively Might the Fed Cut Interest Rates?

The August jobs data did not provide the clarity on the rate outlook that had been hoped and left the markets to their own devices. Concurrently, comments from Fed Governor Waller left the door open for an aggressive -50 bps cut after he said he favored front-loading policy action, but stressed only if appropriate.

Asia & European Sessions:

*European & US equity markets open in the green, following a recent selloff due to weaker-than-expected US jobs data. Wall Street plunged on Friday, as the NASDAQ collapsed -2.55%, with the S&P 500 and Dow down -1.73% and 1.01%, respectively.
*Asian markets followed the global downturn, with stocks in Taiwan, Australia, and Japan experiencing declines. Nikkei dropped for a 5th consecutive day.
*Asia’s benchmark index fell to a 3-week low. Chinese stocks are on the brink of falling to the 5-year low seen in February due to weak earnings and economic recovery. The CSI 300 Index has fallen over 13% since its peak in May, reflecting ineffective policy efforts to revive the economy. Market pessimism in China is fueled by deflationary pressures, weak consumer demand, and a prolonged property slump.
*Economic experts suggest that unless there is a significant policy shift, bearish sentiment may persist.
*Japan: Q2 GDP was revised down to a 0.7% pace, bouncing from the -0.6% contraction in Q1. It ties Q2 2023 for the fastest pace of growth since the 1.3% rate in Q1 2023. The deflator was revised up to a 3.2% y/y rate from 3.0% y/y.
*BOJ: The data leave the door open for another BOJ hike down the road, though we suspect policymakers will be sidelined at the upcoming meeting on September 20 to further assess conditions.
*China CPI edged up to a 0.6% y/y rate in August. It is a seventh month in positive territory after four straight months of deflation (from October through January). Nevertheless, price weakness continues to reflect the slack in demand and the very sluggish growth pace in the economy. And even more serious, PPI plunged to -1.8% y/y in August from -0.8% y/y, the biggest drop since April. And producer prices have been in deflation since September 2022.

While a September Fed rate cut is expected, uncertainty remains about the scale and frequency of future cuts.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDindex slumped to 100.58 before bouncing to a 101.187 close.
*The USDJPY lifted to 143.21. The Yen corrected, which helped to limit the slide in the Nikkei.
*The EURUSD and Cable are lower, at currently 1.1059 and 1.31 respectively.
*Oil drifted to $66.67 before recovering slightly to $68.20. Oil marked its lowest close since 2021 after a deep weekly loss pushed futures near levels regarded as oversold, with the focus on weather risks (Storm in Mexico) and reports this week that may clarify the demand outlook.
*Gold tumbling between $2485-2500.
*Iron ore prices fell below $90 per ton for the first time since 2022.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 24th September 2024.


Market Update – Risk-on Mood due to stimulus measures; Commodities climb.


Asia & European Sessions:


*More new highs were set on Wall Street today as the Fed’s jumbo rate cut continues to reverberate. Fedspeakers indicated more cuts are in the future.
*European stocks are poised for a positive open, following a rally in Asian markets driven by China’s latest economic stimulus efforts aimed at stabilizing its stock market.
*China’s plan to inject 800 billion yuan ($114 billion) in liquidity support for its stock market alongside measures allowing brokerages to access central bank funds to buy equities, boosted investors’ confidence. These moves are part of a broader stimulus package that includes cuts to short-term interest rates and reduced borrowing costs on up to $5.3 trillion in mortgages.
*While the market responded positively to these policies, analysts warn that the rally could be short-lived, as underlying issues like deflation remain unresolved.
*The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% for the 7th consecutive meeting, while leaving future policy options open.
*Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.5%, as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index marked its fourth consecutive daily gain. Hong Kong stocks surged over 4%.
*US Stock market remains positive, with the S&P rallying another 0.28% to 5719 while the Dow was up 0.15% to 42,125. This is the 40th new record this year on the former and the 30th for the latter. The NASDAQ rose 0.14% to 17,974.


Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex was up slightly to 100.898, but failed to hold the test of 101.229.
*Gold managed another fresh peak too, rising 0.18% to $2640 per ounce, supported by rising geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and expectations for further declines in interest rates.
USOil pr*ices recovered yesterday’s losses amid rising tensions in the Middle East after Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon.
*Μost Asian currencies strengthened against the US Dollar, with the Aussie rising against US dollar, i.e. AUDUSD falling to 0.6820, and the yield on 3-year bonds fluctuated.
*USDJPY retests 144.70 (top of falling triangle).


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th October 2024.


Global Markets Steady as China’s Economic Data Surprises, Gold Hits New Record.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


As the US economy continues to show resilience, traders further reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the remaining meetings of 2024. Strong US retail sales data for September exceeded forecasts, highlighting sustained consumer spending, which is powering economic growth.


Asia & European Sessions:


*A rally in risk and some unwinding of haven trades hit Treasuries.
*A stronger than expected September retail sales report weighed on Treasuries at it furthered expectations the FOMC will reduce rates at a more moderate pace into year end. And it added to prospects the Fed may only cut one more time this year with the November implied rate at -22 bps and the December contract at -41 bps.
*Asia equities rose earlier today as the central bank introduced new lending programs to boost corporate share buybacks and equity purchases. However Chinese equities edged down after official data showed slowing economic growth at 4.6% in the Q3 from 4.7% in Q2, underscoring investor uncertainty over government stimulus measures first announced in September.
*Netflix reported net income of $2.36 billion, roughly 6% above Wall Street predictions. Netflix saw a stronger-than-anticipated revenue boost in the latest quarter, alongside solid subscriber (5.1mln) growth, even with fewer blockbuster releases.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex climbed to 103.60,supported by widening rate and growth differentials. The downshift in expectations on Fed cuts, this week’s easing, albeit cautious, from the ECB, the chance for an aggressive -50 bp easing from the BoC, and the unwinding of BoJ rate hike outlooks have been supportive.
*The USDJPY broke to 150 level, the best since the end of July. It could rally further given the less dovish view on the Fed and if there are no signs of MoF intervention.
*The GBPUSD has stabilized and firmed slightly to 1.3060, but is largely recovering from the drop to 1.2990 which is the weakest since mid-August.
The EURUSD has slumped to 1.0807 and is the weakest since the end of July. Concurrently, USDCAD has risen to 1.3795, the highest since early August.
*Gold prices hit a record high, extending a long-running bullish trend as investors sought safe-haven assets. Gold spot prices rose to $2,713. The rise in gold prices, fueled by inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, has been consistent since late 2022.
*Bitcoin also saw gains, rising to $68,350, with some investors viewing it as a hedge similar to gold.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 13th November 2024.


Stocks Cautious Amid Upcoming US CPI & Yen Pressures.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


“Trump trade” has boosted the US Dollar and US stocks, but Trump’s policies may have less favorable effects on global assets. Trump’s plan to raise tariffs is expected to negatively impact economies worldwide, especially exporters like China.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Stock markets are turning cautious as markets prepare for Trump’s presidency. Growing concern that tariffs will disrupt global trade and fuel inflation has been denting sentiment.
*Indexes declined and Japan and Hong Kong, European markets are posting modest gains and US futures are in the red, as yields rise.
*Wall Street stumbled as the Trump trade ran out of steam after 5 straight days of gains on the S&P500 and Dow, along with 4 days of gains on the NASDAQ to more record highs.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The Yen weakened beyond 155 against the US Dollar for the first time since July, raising concerns that Japan might intervene in the currency market to curb its depreciation. A Bloomberg poll of 53 economists last month suggested intervention could be triggered at 150, with a median forecast of 160.
*A spike in Treasury yields is pressuring the Yen, with the two-year yield hitting its highest mark since July, driven by Trump’s economic agenda boosting US rates and the reduced cost of hedging due to the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts.
*The upcoming US data on CPI, PPI, and Retail sales could accelerate the Yen’s decline if the Ministry of Finance doesn’t step in with verbal warnings. Prolonged yen weakness may push the Bank of Japan to consider earlier rate hikes.
*Concerns over sticky high inflation ahead of the CPI report and concerns over potentially inflationary aspects of Trump’s fiscal policies exacerbated selling.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex is settling above 106.
*Oil declined -0.09% to $67.98 per barrel with Trump’s “drill baby drill” reverberating.
*Gold lost -0.82% to $2597.26 per ounce as interest rates surged. The rising Dollar also impacted commodities.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 2nd December 2024.


Dollar Strength Ahead of Key Employment Data Pressures Gold!



Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky


*Analysts expect the US Unemployment Rate to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. The US Dollar Index opens higher on Monday after declining for 5 consecutive days.
*According to experts, there is a 67% chance of a rate cut in December from the Fed. However, the decision depends on the NFP and next week’s inflation rate.
*France’s parliament clash on Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s tweaks to the 2025 budget. Le Pen threatens to support a vote of no confidence. European indices decline.
*Oil prices drop back below $70 per barrel supporting US stocks.


Gold – A Stronger US Dollar Pressures Gold!


The price of Gold sharply fell over 1.00% in the opening hours of the Asian and European session taking the price down to Thursday’s support level. The main reason for the decline is the rise in the price of the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index opened on a 0.30% bullish price gap and rose a further 0.23% thereafter. The price of Gold this week will largely be dependent on the US employment data and its effect on the Federal Fund Rate.





Employment data will be made public throughout the week, marking the final update before the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting. This includes tomorrow’s JOLTS Job Openings, Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change and Friday’s NFP data. Notably, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose from 2.1% to 2.3%, with the core index climbing from 2.7% to 2.8%. Strong employment figures could strengthen the case against further monetary policy easing, casting doubt on the likelihood of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December.


While most experts currently anticipate this adjustment, they expect regulators to pause early next year to evaluate the potential impacts of trade policy decisions announced by newly elected President Donald Trump’s administration. If the likelihood of a rate cut remains high, the price of Gold is likely to find support. Whereas, strong employment data and a pause will pressure Gold and support the Dollar further.


Due to today’s decline, the price of gold shows a bearish bias as the price falls below the trend-line and the 100-bar Moving Average. However, the current momentum will determine whether the price obtains a short-term signal indicating a correction or decline. If the price increases above $2632.62 a short-term signal indicating a correction is likely to arise. If the price falls below $2,626.45, the signal will indicate the continuation of downward momentum.


EURUSD – The Euro Falls As European Politics Trigger Lower Confidence.


The worst performing currency of the day is the Euro which is declining against all currencies. The Euro index currently trades 0.58% lower mainly due to political tension in France and Germany.





Finance Minister Antoine Armand dismissed Marine Le Pen’s push for artificial budget deadlines, even as the far-right leader signaled readiness to topple the government this week. Le Pen’s party has threatened a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Barnier. This is due to the PM adjusting the 2025 budget to include inflation-linked pension indexing and other demands.


S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMIs are expected to stay the same in Germany (43.2 points) and the eurozone (45.2 points). Meanwhile, markets are awaiting October’s data on the Eurozone unemployment rate, currently at 6.3%, along with a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, who may provide updates on the central bank’s monetary policy plans.


While experts believe the ECB is unlikely to make a sharp policy easing, some board members, including Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau, have suggested that a 50-basis-point rate cut in December remains a possibility.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 10th September 2024.


Market Update – Markets prepare for US CPI & Harris-Trump high-stake debate.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Wall Street recovered slightly from Friday’s dip. Dip buying got the ball rolling and short covering has added to the bullish momentum.
*Expectations for a soft, rather than hard landing, with the FOMC expected to cut rates by only -25 bps rather than -50 bps have supported as well. The advent of the Treasury’s $119 bln in auctions, along with a heavy corporate calendar also weighed.
*Nvidia and Tesla have paced the strength in big tech. The Dow advanced 1.2%, with the S&P500 and NASDAQ climbing 1.16%. Strength was broadbased. Five of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains of better than 1%, led by consumer discretionary and IT.
*Sights are on today’s presidential debate and then CPI Wednesday.
*European stock markets are narrowly mixed in early trade, with the FTSE 100 underperforming, after a drop in the ILO unemployment rate. The overall labor market report was not as clear-cut, but the data will add to the arguments against back to back cuts and another move from the BoE this month.
*German HICP inflation was confirmed at 2.0% y/y. The data will add to the arguments in favor of a cautious cut from the ECB on Thursday.


Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDindex found its footing and rose to 101.68 from an overnight low of 101.14.
*The USDJPY lifted to 143.21. The Yen corrected, which helped to limit the slide in the Nikkei.
*Oil returned to $67.60 after Monday’s gain, driven by the return of a risk-on tone to wider markets.
*Gold edged up 0.36% to $2506.38 ahead of US Inflation tomorrow.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 03rd October 2024.


Dovish ECB Comments Send Euro Downward as Investors Eye US Jobs Data



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


*US employment data indicates a resilient employment sector ahead of tomorrow’s NFP data.
*Latvia’s governor, Mr Kazaks, says that officials have sufficient grounds to support further interest rate cuts at the October meeting
*Investors continue to predict a cautious 0.25% cut due to strong employment data.
*The US Dollar continues to be the week’s best performing currency due to a more hawkish approach and a lower risk appetite.


EURUSD – Investors Ditch the Euro For the US Dollar!


The market continues to drive the EURUSD lower due to expectations of the more competitive US market and monetary policy. In addition to this, investors are increasing exposure to the US Dollar due to a lower risk appetite while the Middle East conflict escalates. Yesterday’s Live Trading Session Click pointed out the sell indications between 1.10735 and 1.10684, of which now the price is trading 0.45% lower.





However, as the price is now extremely close to the previous support levels from September 3rd and 11th, Investors should be cautious of buyers re-entering the market at these levels. The support levels can be seen between 1.10256 and 1.10050. In order to break these levels, investors may require further drivers such as tomorrow’s US Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.


Analysts also expect the NFP Employment Change to add 144,000, very similar figures to the previous month. Though some economists now believe this data could beat expectations due to stronger employment data as NFP Friday approaches. Tomorrow’s employment data will trigger significantly higher volatility for the EURUSD.


The Institution For Supply Management (ISM) will publish their second PMI report of the week this afternoon. The Manufacturing PMI read lower than expectations, however, the market gave higher importance to the employment data. Yesterday’s ADP NFP Employment Change read 143,000 which is 19,000 more than the previous prediction. The higher ADP data was driven by leisure and entertainment (34K), construction (26K), and education and healthcare (24K). Today investors will turn their attention mainly to the US Services PMI as well as the Weekly Unemployment Claims.


Meanwhile, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos mentioned that short-term economic growth in the region could be slower than anticipated. However, he expects future recovery to gain momentum, driven by rising real household incomes and easing monetary policy. Latvia’s central bank governor, Martins Kazaks, added that officials have sufficient grounds to support further interest rate adjustments at the October meeting, citing slow wage growth, declining corporate profits, and weak economic recovery across much of Europe. The ECB’s dovish comments also continue to pressure the EURUSD.


Economists currently advise the European economy will not be able to see higher growth unless the ECB opts to cut interest rates to no more than 2%. For this reason, the Euro has been the worst performing currency of the past month only behind the Japanese Yen. Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut 0.25% in November and 0.25% in December.


The price movement of the exchange rate will largely be driven by the price movement of the US Dollar and US news. Therefore, the US Dollar Index will be key. If the ISM Services PMI and Weekly Unemployment Claims are lower than expectations, the EURUSD may be at a good level to retrace back upwards. This is due to the price being at a support level and having already fallen 1.65%. However, even with a retracement upwards, the EURUSD on the 2-Hour Chart remains below the trend-line and below the neutral level on most oscillators.


If the price remains below 1.10427, any short-term upward price movement will form nothing more than a retracement. As a result, medium-term buy signals potentially remain intact for the EURUSD.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

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