HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 21st August 2024.

Market News – Sentiment stabilize; EU stocks higher after mixed Asian session.

* Safe Havens were boosted by rate cut expectations for the FOMC, as well as the ECB and BoC, and after a dovish cut by the Riksbank. Adding to the strength in the rally are the weaker USD, debt concerns (especially for the US), portfolio hedging, haven demand, along with buying from the PBoC and other central banks.
* Geopolitical risks remain a significant factor too, though they were tempered slightly late yesterday after news Israel had agreed to a cease-fire proposal.
* US bond yields dropped to their lowest since August 5, driven by fears of a recession after weak jobs data earlier in the month.

Asian & European Open:

* European stock markets are slightly higher in early trade, after a mixed close across Asia.
* Chinese tech companies listed in Hong Kong were under pressure and the Hang Seng underperformed with a -0.8% loss.
* Sentiment seemed to stabilize at the start of the European session, and US futures are marginally higher as markets wait for Jackson Hole and signals from major central banks that rates will go down next month.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex fell to its lowest level this year against euro as traders prepared for key US payroll data revisions & Fed Powell’s upcoming speech. EURUSD rallied to 1.1132.
* The Sterling and the Yen showed mixed performance against the USD, with traders eyeing Japan’s parliament session and BOJ Governor Ueda’s upcoming testimony. GBPUSD spiked to 1.3050 and USDJPY bottomed to 144.92.
* SMBC economist Ryota Abe expects the US Dollar to weaken to 138 Yen by next year, with the Fed’s rate-cut pace being a critical factor.
* The Aussie hovered near a 1-month high, while the Kiwi touched its highest level since July before slightly retreating.
* USOil was steady close to its $72 floor.
* Gold continued to trade at about $2,500 close to its all-time high, fueled by expectations of impending Fed rate cuts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 20th August 2024.

Market News – Its all about market sentiment.

* Wall Street continued its run higher as the panicked trade from early in the month continues to recede while outlooks on the Fed remain dovish heading into Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday.
* Asian stocks mostly rose on Tuesday, driven by positive momentum from Wall Street as it neared record highs.
* Chinese property developer Kaisa announced a restructuring agreement with creditors to avoid legal challenges over its 2021 default. The deal includes issuing $5 billion in new bonds and $4.8 billion in convertible bonds. (Kaisa, once the largest offshore borrower after Evergrande, faces a winding-up petition in Hong Kong, though the case has been repeatedly delayed.)
* The RBA indicated that it will likely maintain interest rates at their 12-year high for an “extended period” to ensure inflation returns to target by next year.
* In Europe, growing risks to economic growth have strengthened the argument for a policy shift at the ECB’s meeting next month. Markets are also watching the EU CPI release due later today.

Asian & European Open:

* Expectations for lower rates helped boost the NASDAQ by 1.39%. The S&P500 climbed to its 8th consecutive gain and its best run since November. It is just the 2nd close over 5600 as it sets its sights on the record 5667 from July 16. The Dow rose 0.58% to 40,896 as 41,198 is back in view.
* The Nikkei surged 2.1% to 38,156.41, recovering from a previous 1.8% drop.
Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex sank to 101.60, the weakest since early January.
* The Yen fluctuated against the US dollar, trading at the 147.33, rebounding from the 145-146 area.
* USOil prices decline to largest drop in 2 weeks, i.e. $72.76, as the US said Israel accepted a cease-fire proposal in Gaza, potentially easing supply risks as concerns about the global demand outlook mount.
* Bitcoin climbed to $60,974 while Gold continued to trade at about $2,500 close to its all-time high, fueled by expectations of impending Fed rate cuts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 19th August 2024.

Market News – Asian Stocks gain but US in red, Dollar plumMets; Yen the biggest gainer so far.

September Fed rate cut all but a done deal, look ahead to Jackson Hole

* Dovish Fed bets have also boosted hopes of additional easing in Europe, and bonds are falling as markets look ahead to the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is expected to provide new guidance on the direction of US monetary policy.
* The anticipation of lower borrowing costs is boosting investor confidence.
* The US Dollar crashed to its lowest in 5 months. Cooler heads have prevailed as the panicked fears of recession dissipated. The FOMC is widely seen on track for -25 bp rate cuts over the remaining three policy meetings this year.
* Goldman Sachs reduced the likelihood of a US recession within the next year from 25% to 20%, citing the recent retail sales and jobless claims data. If the upcoming August jobs report, due on September 6, shows positive results, “we would likely lower our recession probability further to 15%,” Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius noted in a report to clients on Saturday.

Asian & European Open:

* Asian stock markets traded largely higher overnight, however, European markets are narrowly mixed in early trade and US futures are in the red.
* The Hang Seng and tech stocks led the way overnight. The Nikkei underperformed and corrected -1.8%.
* The German 10-year rate is down -1.6 bp, the 10-year Gilt -2.3 bp and the US 10-year yield -1.3 bp.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has remained under pressure and hit a session low of 102.00, before picking up slightly.
* The Yen strengthened by 1% against the US Dollar, reaching 145.17 today. The yen’s rise is driven by overall USD weakness, anticipation of BOJ Governor Ueda’s parliamentary appearance on August 23, and Fed Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Markets are looking for signals from Ueda on the future direction of the BOJ’s interest rate policy. Political uncertainty is also influencing expectations, following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s announcement that he will not seek re-election as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in September. Some investors are still betting on potential BOJ interest-rate hikes and may be buying Yen ahead of speeches by the US and Japanese central bank leaders later this week.
* USOil prices have also continued to struggle as demand concerns dominate. The USOIL is currently below $75 per barrel as traders tracked US-led efforts to secure a cease-fire in the 10-month old Middle East conflict, while the Russia-Ukraine war is escalating.
* Gold rallied to an all-time high over $2500 per ounce,on hopes the Fed is edging closer to cutting rates.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 16th August 2024.

Markets corrected again; Stocks skyrocketed.

Markets corrected again amid the back and forth on the Fed outlook and uncertainties over soft and hard landings that have besieged the outlooks since the jobs report. Global stocks have largely recovered from last week’s downturn, which had traders worried that the Fed might not cut rates quickly enough to prevent a recession.

* Asian stocks surged as investors returned to riskier assets, driven by increasing optimism that the US economy will sidestep a recession.
* September’s Fed rate cut was knocked out by the better than expected retail sales & jobless claims data and inflation. They are now anticipating less than a 30-basis point cut next month, with a total reduction of 92 basis points projected for the remainder of 2024.
* The RBA’s governor indicated that the central bank is still some distance from easing monetary policy.
* RBNZ governor Adrian Orr raised the distinct prospect of cutting rates another 50 basis points by year-end. NZDUSD rose to 0.6020.

Asian & European Open:

* Japanese stocks climbed, benefiting from a weaker Yen, which enhances exporters’ profits. The Nikke is set to end the week on a high, surging 2.9% to 37,800.42.
* Treasuries extended their losses, and the Yen is on track for its steepest weekly decline since May.
* The VIX fell further, dropping -6.49% to 15.14. It is well below the intraday spike to 65 on August 5 and is the lowest since July 23, even before the jobs report.
* Wall Street surged 2.34%, with the S&P500 advancing 1.61%, while the Dow climbed 1.39%. The rebound in US stocks from the heavy selling suggests that trend-following quant funds may soon reenter the market, potentially providing further support to equities.
* Walmart’s solid earnings report added to signs that the consumer is by no means dead, corresponding with the better news on retail sales. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. saw gains as optimism around tech stocks overshadowed concerns about its earnings. JD.com Inc. surged the most since March after exceeding net profit expectations in its earnings report released late Thursday.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex firmed to 103.024 after fading from the spike to 103.227. It was as low as 102.530.
* The Yen dropped 1.3% hovered around the 149 mark. This currency depreciation might even entice some hedge funds back into the carry trade that unraveled two weeks ago.
* GBP strengthened as GDP data confirmed robust growth through the second quarter of the year, which weighed on Gilts and saw yields moving higher.
* The AUD strengthened as job gains beat expectations.
* USOil climbed 1.3% to $77.99 per barrel on the improved growth outlook.
* Gold rallied 0.34% to $2456.24 after slumping to $2432 on the data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 15th August 2024.

Earnings and Inflation Boost the Dow Jones, Eyes Turn to Walmart’s Report!

* US inflation falls from 3.00% to 2.90% making a September rate cut certain.
* According to the CME Group, there is a 64% chance of the September rate cut being 25-basis points.
* Japanese GDP data confirms the economy grew 0.8% in the past quarter. The UK economy sees no growth in the latest month.
* Wednesday’s best performing index was the Dow Jones after Cisco Systems beat earnings and revenue expectations.

USA30 – The Dow Jones Is Wednesday’s Best Performing Index!

The Dow Jones is rarely the best performing index due to its exposure to more stable and less volatile stocks. The upward momentum is largely due to the earnings data from Cisco Systems and Caterpillar. Investors will now turn their attention to the last major quarterly earnings report for the week, Walmart.

80% of the Dow Jones’ stocks rose in value on Wednesday due to the significant rise in investor sentiment. Confidence in the stock market improved after the US inflation rate fell from 3% to 2.9% and the core inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.2%. The lower than previously expected inflation saw the market’s confidence rise and particularly support the Dow Jones.

The Dow Jones also saw momentum rise after Cisco made public their latest quarterly earnings report. Earnings per Share was 2.49% higher than Wall Street’s predictions and the revenue rose by almost $1 billion from the 1st to 2nd quarter. As a result, the stock rose by 5.75% after market close. The best performing stocks on Wednesday were American Express and Goldman Sachs. Investors will now turn their attention to Walmart which will release their earnings report before the market opens.

For Walmart, analysts predict the earnings per share to rise from $0.60 to $0.65 and for revenue to rise from $159 billion to $167 billion. The company has beat earnings expectations over the past 12 months due to investors looking to shop on a budget due to recent high inflation. On Wednesday, Walmart stocks rose 0.78% and a further 0.52% after market close. The rise and bullish momentum indicate investors believe the company will continue to perform well on their earnings reports. Walmart holds a weight of 1.12% and Cisco Systems 0.74%.

Dow Jones – Interest Rates and Upcoming Economic News.

After the lower inflation data for consumers and producers there is a 64% chance of the September rate cut being 25-basis points. According to many analysts the Federal Reserve will cut 0.75% by the end of 2024. However, some experts believe the Fed will cut a full 1.00%. This is also something which can be seen on the CME Group which indicates a 44% chance of a 1.00% cut by December.

Investors will now turn their attention to the US Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales and Weekly Unemployment Claims. Ideally shareholders would like to see the data slightly stronger than expectations, but not strong enough to suggest no rate cuts are needed. The Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philly Fed Index will also trigger volatility but to a lesser extent. The only concern for shareholders is a potential rise in tensions within the Middle East!

Currently the VIX trades with no major changes. As do Bond Yields, but a decline throughout the day would benefit the stock market.

Dow Jones – Technical Analysis!

Technical analysis indicates buyers are holding momentum. On the 2-Hour chart, price trades above the 75-Period EMA and the 100-Period EMA. The price also continues to trade above 70 on the RSI but is not indicating an overbought price. On the 5-Minute chart, the price continues to form bullish crossovers and trade above the VWAP. The price movement throughout as we approach the US session will depend largely on the global stock market performance and Walmart’s earnings report.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 13th August 2024.

The Pound Rises, But Cracks Emerge in the UK Employment Sector.

* The Pound increases in value, but UK employment data signals economic stagnation and weakening employment.
* The UK number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits rises 135,000, the highest in over 4 years.
* The Dow Jones trades sideways but this may change as Home Depot is due to release their earnings report.
* Investors turn their attention to the US Producer Inflation Rate which analysts expect to fall to 2.3%.

The Great British Pound is increasing in value against the US Dollar and also against all other currencies. However, the economic data coming out of the UK this morning paints a very different picture. Therefore, many investors question whether the Pound will indeed maintain bullish momentum.

The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits from 135,000 within a single month, the highest since the first COVID lockdown. The six-month average for the UK Claimant Count Change (number of unemployment benefits) is 22,233. Therefore, 135,000 added within a single month is a concern for investors and the Bank of England.

In addition to this, the UK Average Earnings Index fell from 5.7% to 4.5% which is lower than expectations. The fall is likely to apply less upward pressure on inflation and can eventually prompt the Bank of England to consider an earlier rate cut. However, the positive from the morning’s UK data is the unemployment rate. The UK unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.2%, a 4-month low.

It is vital for investors to continue monitoring the GBP index, which is currently trading 0.23% higher. However, if data continues to disappoint throughout the week, the traditional react would lead to a weakening of the British Pound. If individual wish to speculate a depreciating GBP, investors also have the option to trade the GBPNZD which has been the best performing currency of the past week.

Regarding the GBPUSD exchange rate, the price will also largely be dependant on this afternoon’s Producer Price Index. As the US session edges closer, investors will turn their attention to the PPI, which analysts expect to fall to 2.3%. If the Producer Price Index reads higher than expectations, the US Dollar may increase in value while the market’s risk appetite declines. As a result, the Pound can quickly give up gains from the past 24 hours.

Currently, the price of the GBPUSD is trading above most moving averages, oscillators and the VWAP indicating potential upward price movement. However, as mentioned above, the price movement will be dependant on the upcoming economic releases. If the price trades above 1.28037 and 1.28092, the exchange rate may rise in value in the short term. However, ideally the US PPI will need to read lower than expectations as the breakout takes place.

USA30 – Investors On Edge Ahead Of Inflation And Home Depot’s Earnings Report!

The Dow Jones continues to honour the price pattern of the previous 2 trading sessions as per yesterday’s analysis. However, this is now likely to change as Home Depot will release their earnings report in the upcoming hours. Additionally, this afternoon’s Producer Price Index will be a key price driver. Shareholders will be hoping for a lower-than-expected PPI.

Home Depot has beat their earnings expectations over the past 4 quarters, but investors will also be looking for guidance for the upcoming quarters. Investors expect Earnings Per Share to rise from $3.63 to $4.55 and for revenue to rise by $6 billion. If the company beat expectations the stock potentially can rise and support the Dow Jones. Over the past 12 months the stock has risen 4.80% and has a dividend yield of 2.60%.

During this morning’s Asian session, the VIX is trading more than 2.00% lower which is positive for the Dow Jones. Investors will continue to monitor the VIX and US Bond Yields. If both decline, the price movement is likely to improve. Throughout the Asian session the Dow Jones has risen 0.32% and is attempting to move back to the resistance level. However, positive data is required to breakout of this level and form a possible bullish trend.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 12th August 2024.

How Will the Pound Perform Ahead Of A Vital Week For The UK!

* Economists expect the US inflation rate to remain at 3.0% or to drop to 2.9%. Also, economists expect Inflation excluding Food and Energy to drop to 3.2%.
* The Federal Reserve’s Mrs Bowman advises cuts are needed only if inflation continues to decline.
* According to the CME Group, investors are split over whether the Fed will cut 0.50% or 0.25%.
* The US inflation data tomorrow and on Wednesday will determine how the Fed will cut.
* The Dow Jones await key earnings reports from Home Depot (13th August), Cisco Systems (14th August) and Walmart (15th).

GBPJPY – Key UK Data To Determine The Pound’s Value!

The price of the GBPJPY is trading at the recent average price, but the Pound is gaining momentum ahead of vital economic data. The performance of the Great British Pound will depend largely on the upcoming 5 key economic releases. The Japanese Yen on the other hand has slightly lost momentum after the dovishness of the Bank of Japan in their latest press conference. The performance of the Yen will largely depend on the dovishness of the other central banks such as the Fed, Bank of England and European Central Bank.

GBPJPY 2-Hour Chart Showing The Price Rise Above Moving Averages For The First Time Since July 11th.

Throughout the week the UK will release the following key economic releases:

* Claimant Count Change
* Average Earnings Index
* UK Inflation
* Gross Domestic Product
* Retail Sales

The price of the GBP will depend on how the UK economy and inflation has performed over the past month compared to expectations. According to economists, if the UK inflation rate and GDP read higher than expectations, the Pound is likely to strengthen. However, investors will also be looking closely at the UK employment data as the UK Unemployment Rate has risen to 4.4%. If the unemployment rate rises, the UK’s rate will be at its highest in 3-years and can prompt a more dovish central bank.

Currently, the Pound is the best performing currency of the day, except for the AUD and NZD. The AUD and NZD normally tend to lose momentum as the European session opens. However, the New Zealand Dollar is also gaining momentum ahead of the RBNZ’s Rate Decision. The GBP is trading 0.20% higher so far in the Asian session. Technical analyst and economists consider if investors are increasing exposure predicting positive economic data throughout the upcoming week.

In terms of technical analysis, the price of the exchange is trading above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA for the first time since July 11th. The RSI is also trading at 59.00 which indicates buyers may be gaining control. The Japanese Yen index is trading 0.42% lower so far, therefore signalling no conflict, but investors will keep monitoring this throughout the week. Particularly once the US start releasing their inflation data. Prices above 188.405 will see stronger buy signals whereas below 186.477 will see traders look for sell signals.

USA30 (Dow Jones) – Investors Eye US Inflation and This Week’s Quarterly Earnings Reports!

On Friday, the Dow Jones traded in a sideways price range after breaking the resistance level. According to economists, the assets sideways movement is due to shareholders wanting to see the upcoming earnings reports. Economists advise the Dow Jones is appropriately priced and investors will look at economic data and earnings first before determining the intrinsic value of the asset. As a result, US data and the upcoming quarterly earnings report will be key.

Previously, bad news was good news for the stock market. However, most shareholders will be hoping for slightly positive economic data to improve the risk appetite of the market. It will be key for the US inflation rate to fall if the stock market is to hope for a full correction back up to 14,000. Many economists advise a full correction is unlikely if inflation does not fall.

The performance of the Dow Jones will depend on the quarterly earnings reports and US inflation. The Federal Reserve’s Mrs Bowman advises cuts are needed only if inflation continues to decline. Markets viewed the comments are cautious and less dovish compared to market expectations. However, if inflation does decline, market will start to price a 50-basis point cut for September.

The Dow Jones awaits key earnings reports from Home Depot (13th August), Cisco Systems (14th August) and Walmart (15th). Over the past 6 months Home Depot stocks have fallen 4.60% and Cisco Systems 9.00%. Walmart stocks have risen almost 20% in 6 months.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th August 2024.

The Dow Jones Rebounds After Reassuring Guidance From Key US Companies!

* Stocks rebound after leading economists come out in force to confirm no recession is approaching.
* The NASDAQ rises 2.87% and the Dow Jones 1.77%. The SNP500 witnesses its best day since November 2022.
* A sense of relief after the Weekly Unemployment Claims was 8,000 lower than expectations.
* The British Pound gets ready for a week full of vital economic data. The GBP remains unchanged prior to the London open.

USA30 – Why The Dow Jones Rose 1.77% On Thursday?

The Dow Jones on Thursday saw a strong rebound which was a result of three elements. The first is that economists came out in force to confirm there is no sign in economic data indicating a recession. Speeches from the CEOs of Commerzbank, Goldman Sachs, and Disney said there was no data pointing to a crash. However, they did advise the market is likely to witness high volatility and strong correction in the upcoming months.

Looking at economic data, the US economy remains strongly in the growth zone, but with a more balanced employment sector and weakening consumer demand. The second element supporting the stock market is the Weekly Unemployment Claims. Weekly Unemployment Claims was 8,000 lower than expectations (241,000). Lastly, technical analysts also advised the market was comfortable to buy the dip after the stock market was unable to maintain the downward momentum from Monday.

When monitoring the individual components of the Dow Jones, all stocks ended the day higher. The strongest gains were from Intel which rose 7.90% and Amgen which won back previous losses. Caterpillar also continues to perform well after beating its earnings expectations by 8.00% also adding to the upward momentum. In addition to this, the VIX index trades 0.20% lower this morning, and if the decline increases, the VIX would support a continued correction in the stock market.

Dow Jones (USA30) – Technical Analysis and US Inflation

A key factor in the pricing of the stock market will be next week’s Consumer Price Index. The inflation rate will help determine how much the Federal Reserve will be willing to cut in September. JP Morgan in its latest report advised there is a 35% chance of a recession, and the Fed may cut interest rates by 1.00% in 2024. However, many economists believe the Fed will only cut by 50 basis points in September if inflation falls next week. Lower inflation can support the stock market and further fuel a correction.

The Dow Jones has been trading sideways throughout the Asian session with no clear lasting crossovers. In addition to this, the MACD remains numb and the price trades at the VWAP. Therefore, more volatility is needed to obtain a clear signal. If the price breaks above the 39,551.75 level, a buy signal may arise from the breakout via crossovers and Fibonacci.

GBPEUR – Investors Brace For Crucial UK Data In The Upcoming Week!

The British Pound has significantly fallen in value over the past 3 weeks but has been attempting a correction over the past 3 days. The price is at the average price, but the economic data next week will be crucial for the Pound. A full correction back to 0.83820 or further bullish price movement will depend on the data.

EURGBP – Impact Of High Interest Rates!

In the following week, the UK will release their Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index, UK inflation, Retail Sales and the UK’s Gross Domestic Product. These 5 critical economic releases will indicate if the UK economy is solid and expanding or remains under pressure.

It is noteworthy that the UK Finance association has published data indicating the significant impact of high interest rates. Experts highlight that the number of creditors’ claims for repossessing mortgaged properties has reached its highest level in five years. During this period, 96,000 homeowners were in arrears of at least 2.5%.

Additionally, claims for mortgage non-payment rose by 34.0% year-on-year while repossessions of mortgaged properties increased by 31.0% compared to the same period last year. Therefore, it will be vital for the Pound to obtain supporting economic data in the upcoming week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 8th August 2024.

The Dow Jones Drops 2% As JP Morgan Signal Possible Recession.

* JP Morgan advises markets that the economy is at a higher risk of a recession in 2024.
* Representatives of the Federal Reserve advise they will not call for an urgent meeting to cut interest rates.
* Disney beat expectations but theme park visitors significantly fell. Economists advise this shows the drop in consumer demand and the risks of inflation over the past 3 years.
* The Japanese Yen climbs after downward pressure in the first half of the week.

USA30 – The Dow Jones Reaches a Significant Support Level!

The Dow Jones price quickly collapsed after the opening of the US trading session and continues to remain low on Thursday. The decline was largely triggered by the poor performance of Amgen (-5.00%) and Walt Disney (+4.46%). Both stocks came under pressure by the quarterly earnings report which confirmed some risks. On Wednesday, only 35% of the Dow Jones rose in value, while 65% fell.

Disney’s Earnings Per Share for the latest quarter were significantly higher than previous expectations. Earnings were 16% higher while revenue came in as expected. However, the poor performance of the company’s theme parks dampened sentiment and the overall stock market. According to economists, the drop in revenue from theme parks is a result of inflation and lower consumer demand which not only influences Disney’s stocks but the overall market.

In addition to this, throughout the month of August, poor data can be followed by an overreaction as the market’s risk appetite remains low and on the lookout. The next significant quarterly earnings report for the Dow Jones is Home Depot on Tuesday before the market opens.

Another factor which is adding to pressure is the latest comments from JP Morgan, one of the largest US banks of all time. According to JP Morgan, the US economy is now at a higher risk of a recession in 2024, and a recent selloff has wiped out three-quarters of the global carry trade, erasing this year’s gains.

USA30 – Technical Analysis!

In terms of technical analysis, the price of the Dow Jones continues to find support at the $38,577.09 level. However, the price is testing the level for the fourth time this week. The question is, will the index break below the price or find short-term support. Currently the price trades below the 75-Period EMA, 100-Period SMA and below the 50.00 level on the RSI. However, a positive factor is the VIX index trades lower as do bond yields.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 31st July 2024.

How Are Earnings Shaping the NASDAQ?

* Microsoft stocks fell 2.70% as Cloud revenue read lower than previous expectations. Overall earnings and revenue beat expectations.
* AMD and Starbucks stocks rise after releasing their quarterly earnings reports.
* Earnings support the NASDAQ after the index falls to a new monthly low.
* Meta, Qualcomm and Lam Research are due to release their earnings reports after today’s market close.

USA100 – How Will Investors View The NASDAQ After The Recent Earnings Data!

Yesterday, the NASDAQ fell 1.81%, hitting a recent low and pushing the index 10.50% below its recent highs. However, the decline came to a halt as the earnings from influential companies prompted investors to purchase at the lower price. Microsoft, AMD and Starbucks made public their latest earnings report after the market close.


Microsoft stocks, the second most influential stock holding a weight of 8.49%, fell 2.70% after releasing their earnings. The price fell due to the Cloud revenue not reaching previous expectations. However, investors should note that earnings from the Cloud sector have still significantly risen from the previous quarters and the company overall beat earnings and revenue expectations. Microsoft earnings beat expectations by 0.25% and Revenue by 0.45%.

On the other hand, AMD and Starbucks stocks rose in value after releasing their reports. AMD stocks rose 7.64% and Starbucks 3.63%. This evening, after the US market closes, Meta, Qualcomm and Lam Research will release their quarterly figures. The 3 stocks make up a weight of 6.56%. This is a moderate weight and not as influential as the above-mentioned stocks. However, the release can still significantly change the sentiment towards the stock market.

The stock market fell after the US’s JOLTS Job Openings and CB Consumer Confidence beat expectations set by analysts. Investors will continue to monitor employment data throughout the week. However, tonight’s Federal Reserve press conference and forward guidance will be key for the foreseeable future. Particularly, a clear indication of a rate cut in September and another by the end of the year.

Analysts advise the regulator will maintain the base rate at 5.25–5.50% for the eighth consecutive meeting. However, during the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell might hint at a 0.25% point rate cut in September, the first in over four years. Futures tied to the US interest rate suggest the possibility of three rate cuts this year, though most experts anticipate only two, in September and December.

The NASDAQ’s price still remains below the trend-line and 100-Period SMA. In addition to this, the RSI trades at the Neutral level. Therefore, the price is not yet obtaining a clear longer-term buy signal yet. However, investors who wish to speculate the recent upward price movement can aim for the recent resistance level at $19,194.03, which is also in line with the trend-line.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.