HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 8th November 2024.


Can Trump Bring Oil Prices Down To $40? NASDAQ Renews Its Highs!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


*The NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500 continue to renew their all time highs for a second consecutive day.
*NVIDIA tops the NASDAQ as the most influential stock, surpassing Apple and Microsoft.
*Crude Oil prices break below the ascending triangle pattern as investors closely monitor any signals from President-elect Trump on how he plans to bring oil prices down.
*The Federal Reserve indicates that it will keep lowering interest rates but plans to pause for an extended period at a certain point.


NASDAQ – The NASDAQ Continues To Renew Price Highs!


The NASDAQ continues to increase in value and renew its all time high for a second consecutive day. This week the index has risen 5.70% and investors are contemplating if the index will retrace this Friday due to the large impulse wave. However, investors will be looking for larger downward momentum before determining whether a retracement throughout the day is possible.





One of this week’s best performing stocks for the NASDAQ which is gaining more momentum and attention is Tesla. During the presidential race, Elon Musk, the company’s CEO, endorsed Trump’s candidacy, contributing $75 million to his campaign. In return, Donald Trump pledged to appoint Musk to lead the Commission on Government Efficiency, which oversees budget expenditures. This appointment would enable Tesla Inc. and Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) to secure new contracts. Over the past decade, collaboration with the government has brought the company $15.4 billion.


Investors continue to also evaluate the comments from the Federal Reserve on Thursday evening. At a press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that while inflation remains slightly above the 2.0% target, monetary authorities are confident it is under control. However, the growth rate of consumer prices, excluding food and energy costs, is still “somewhat elevated.” Powell added that despite the current easing of monetary policy, officials are prepared to pause if macroeconomic data suggest the need.


The Fed is also considering a scenario in which borrowing costs hold steady at current levels during its December meeting. Powell further noted that actions by the incoming government and Congress could affect the economic outlook over time, and forecasts of these impacts will be incorporated into models that assess various aspects of the US economic system.


As mentioned above, investors are taking into consideration if the price will retrace after such a strong upward trend throughout the week. However, elements do still continue to point to short term upward price movement. For example, the VIX Index continues to fall as have bond yields. The VIX index trades 3.00% lower on Friday and the 10-Year Bond Yields has fallen 37 points.


Crude Oil – Can Trump Achieve $40 Per Barrel?





The Euro continues to witness a lack of demand and is again one of the weakest currencies of the day. The Euro index is currently trading 0.20% higher which is only better than the US Dollar Index and Swiss Franc. The best performing currencies of the day are the New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar.





The price movement of Crude Oil over the past week has formed an ascending triangle pattern. However, the support level was broken this morning after the corrective wave surpassed 1.75%.


Oil traders worry that the new US President-elect will put considerable pressure on the Chinese economy. This can potentially lead to a sharp drop in oil demand from the world’s largest importer. The EIA’s weekly report yesterday showed an increase in oil reserves by 2.149 million barrels, much higher than the expected 0.300 million barrels, with gasoline reserves rising by 0.412 million barrels and distillates by 2.947 million barrels. The decline could have been steeper, but Hurricane Rafael had closed 17% of oil production capacity in the Mexican Gulf.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 2nd September 2024.


Is The Dow Jones Overpriced? The DJIA Declines On Monday!


*Markets expect US employment data to improve adding a further 160,000 employees to the country’s payroll.
*Analysts expect US Job vacancies to drop to their lowest level in 2024, but to remain at the 5-Year Average.
*According to the Chicago exchange, an interest rate cut on September 18th is certain. Markets expect a 0.25% rate cut.
*Strong gains on Friday evening saved the US Stock Market from witnessing another bearish close.


Dow Jones (USA30) – Recurring Pattern


On Friday, the stock market quickly fell at the opening of the US Session but thereafter the market quickly rose to close at a higher price. Investors should note that of the past 7 trading sessions, this has been a known pattern. Of the past 7 trading sessions the price has fallen at the open and then corrected on 5 occasions. A positive factor for the Dow Jones is the price is forming higher swing lows and is witnessing less bearish momentum over the past week.


Dow Jones Components


The Dow Jones’ components on Friday saw 5 stocks fall while 25 stocks rose in value. Therefore, 83% of the index rose in value confirming buy signals could have been relevant. Though, during today’s session investors should note that the US 10-Year T-Bond rose in value by 42 points. Currently, the VIX index is more or less unchanged, but as the US 10-Year T-Bond trades significantly higher, investors will need to be cautious of volatility. If the VIX increases in value and Bonds Yields remain significantly higher, the price of the Dow Jones may witness a horizontal trend. It will also be vital to again review the percentage of the components witnessing bullish and bearish price movements.


Earnings season is almost at a close, the only major company yet to release its earnings report is Broadcom. However, Broadcom stocks are not a component of the Dow Jones and the report will simply impact the market only through the broader market sentiment. Analysts will concentrate their attention on this week’s ISM PMI release, JOLTS Job Openings and the Employment data on Friday.


Ideally investors will want to see neither weak data which will trigger low consumer demand fears, nor positive data which will make rate cuts less likely. Ideally, investors would like to see the data read in line with expectations. Currently the market is pricing in 0.75% to 1.25% rate cuts in 2024. If the Fed indicates less than 0.75%, the stock market is likely to be overpriced.


Dow Jones Technical Analysis


In terms of technical analysis, the Dow Jones has been the only index which has continuously held above the 75 and 100 Period Moving Averages. Meanwhile, the SNP500 and NASDAQ have been unable to maintain momentum. Higher demand is due to the Market’s lower risk appetite and investors increasing exposure away from the technology market. However, the price is now trading very close to its all-time highs and close to its overbought market on most oscillators. Therefore, investors will be looking for further price drivers to regain momentum.


According to Fibonacci retracement levels, if the price declines, a retracement could fall as far as $41,339.55. If global indices rise and at least 65-70% of the Dow Jones’ stocks rise, investors may deem a breakout of the $41,641.00 level as a signal to speculate a price increase.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 20th September 2024.


Bigger Interest Rate Cuts Spark Surge In Demand For The NASDAQ!

*Stocks rally after the Federal Reserve chooses to “go-large” with a 0.50% interest rate cut.
*The NASDAQ rises more than 2.50% and the Dow Jones 1.26%. The Dow Jones trades at an all-time high.
*UK Retail Sales rose significantly above expectations. The Great British Pound Index rises 0.35% and is the best performing index after the Japanese Yen.
*Gold attempts to break an all-time high as analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut a further 0.50% by the end of the year.


NASDAQ – Larger Interest Rate Cuts Prompt Higher Demand


The NASDAQ saw a clear bullish trend with the index rising for 5 consecutive hours as the US Session opened. The higher demand is a clear result of the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates 0.50% and not 0.25%.


The US Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point reduction in the interest rate, lowering it from 5.25–5.50% to 4.75–5.00%. In his remarks, Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, highlighted that the target inflation rate of 2% had been achieved but suggested further decreases could follow. The updated economic forecast projects consumer price growth at 2.3% by the end of the year, down from the previous estimate of 2.6%. Furthermore, economic growth is now forecasted at 2%, compared to the 2.1% predicted in July.

In terms of technical analysis, the medium-term picture remains neutral. This is due to the RSI trading at the neutral level, and the price trading above the trend-line and the 100-Period SMA, but retracing downwards. Therefore, the overall scenario remains neutral. However, if the price rises above $2,576.00, buy signals are likely to strengthen.


GBPJPY – UK Inflation Holds at 2.2%, Yen Struggles to Gain Momentum Outside Asia!


The price of the GBPJPY trades considerably lower on Wednesday due to the higher value of the Japanese Yen. So far the Japanese Yen is the day’s best performing index and was trading 0.32% higher against the currency market. However, technical analysts have noted that the Yen’s performance becomes poorer within the European session. As the European session edges closer the Japanese Yen Index has fallen 0.06%. The price movement of the Japanese Yen will largely depend on the Fed’s rate decision due to recent correlations.

As a result, the Fed expects the key rate to drop to 4.50% this year and reach 3.40% by the end of 2025. Therefore, investors are changing their view as to the “intrinsic value” of the NASDAQ and the stock market in general. The NASDAQ on Thursday was the best performing index largely due to its exposure to growth stocks. Of the NASDAQ’s individual stocks, 85% rose in value on Thursday and none of the top ten influential stocks depreciated.


When monitoring other areas of the market, such as bond yields, indications still remain that buyers will control the NASDAQ. The US 10-Year Treasury Yields has fallen 0.024% during this morning’s asian session. Lower bond yields are known to be positive for the NASDAQ, and investors will continue monitoring the decline in yields throughout the day. The VIX index this morning is trading 0.15% higher; ideally buyers and shareholders would wish for the VIX to decline into a minus figure. Yesterday’s stronger employment data also continues to support the NASDAQ and stocks in general.


Technical analysis continues to indicate bullish price movement due to the upward momentum and volatility. However, as the NASDAQ is currently retracing, upward momentum will need to be regained in order for a buy signal to materialize. When attaching the Fibonnaci retracement levels onto the retracement, a potential buy signal can be seen at $19,920. However, investors are also concerned the price is trading at the resistance level from August 22nd.


GBPUSD – UK Retail Sales Significantly Higher Than Expectations!


The GBPUSD rose to its highest level since February 2022 after rising 0.38% during this morning’s Asian Session. The bullish price movement is related to both the US Dollar’s decline but also the bullish price movement the Pound has seen against the whole currency market. Currently, the GBP is the best performing currency of 2024 so far but also of the day. So far in 2024, the British Pound has risen 4.42%.

The Pound’s upward momentum is largely due to the Bank of England’s decision to keep its interest rate at 5.00%, whereas other global regulators had opted to cut interest rates. In addition to this, the UK’s Retail Sales figure for August read 1.0%, significantly higher than the previous expectations of 0.2%.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 15th October 2024.


Global Markets Mixed Amid Earnings Optimism and Easing Oil Concerns.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


The market’s momentum, fueled by optimism around earnings reports, falling interest rates and expectations that the Federal Reserve can reduce inflation without triggering a recession.


Asia & European Sessions:


*European futures rose while Asian stocks showed mixed performance following Wall Street’s record highs.
*Chinese shares saw extended losses after disappointing data showed China’s broader export growth slowed to just 2.4% year-on-year, the weakest since May, reflecting ongoing economic challenges. The lack of clear fiscal stimulus from Chinese authorities continues to weigh on investor sentiment and risk appetite in Chinese equities.
*Technology stocks in Asia followed the strong lead from their US counterparts, with the S&P500 gaining nearly 1% to reach its 46th record high this year. Despite concerns over lowered Q3 forecasts, investors seem to be betting on positive earnings surprises. The Nasdaq also advanced by 0.8%, led by gains in Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc., and Tesla Inc. Financial stocks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup rose ahead of their earnings releases.
*Nikkei hit its highest level since July, with benchmarks in Australia and Taiwan also trending upward. Japanese stocks were among the strongest performers so far today, with the Yen maintaining strength near a key psychological level against the US Dollar.
*Earnings reports: Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, and UnitedHealth Group.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex strengthened against most major currencies.
*The USDJPY slightly dipped to 149.34 from 149.96. The EURUSD broke 1.09 and extended to 1.0830.
*USoil dropped sharply to $70.60 per barrel from $4.18 high yesterday. Oil prices declined as concerns about potential Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities eased. Oil and energy shares dropped after reports indicated Israel does not intend to target Iranian oil or nuclear sites.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 11th November 2024.


Bitcoin Skyrockets to $81k; Asian Stocks Down; Markets weigh the risk of “Trump-tariffs”.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Bitcoin surged past $81,000 for the first time (94% higher for 2024), fueled by President-elect Donald Trump’s decisive victory, winning all seven US battleground states, including Arizona. The digital-asset industry, which invested over $100 million in pro-crypto candidates, celebrated the outcome.
*Trump pledged to make the US a hub for digital assets, including plans for a strategic Bitcoin stockpile and appointing crypto-friendly regulators.
*Dogecoin skyrocketed to highest price since 2021 (promoted by Trump supporter Elon Musk).
*Japanese indexes rallied as discussions at the last BoJ meeting focused on a cautious approach to additional rate cuts.
*Asian shares fell following concerns that China’s debt swap program may not be adequate, alongside data indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy. Investor sentiment is also dampened by declining foreign direct investment especially after Donald Trump’s presidential victory injected fresh uncertainty over tariffs.
*China’s inflation reports were weak, reflecting further deflation in wholesale prices. China’s trade surplus is poised to reach a new record this year. If the gap between exports and imports keeps expanding at its current rate, it could approach $1 trillion, based on Bloomberg’s calculations. These are ominous signs for the economy that continues to struggle.


Financial Markets Performance:


*European stock markets are mostly higher, with DAX and FTSE100 posting gains of 1.0% and 0.6% respectively.
*Bond markets are closed in the US and Canada today and while equity markets are open, trading conditions are likely to be quieter than usual.
*US equity futures are currently higher, led by a 0.4% rise in the NASDAQ.
*The USDIndex climbed back above 105.
*EURUSD drifts to 1.069 and GBPUSD retests once again a break below 1.2900.
The USDJPY rebounds and extends again to 153.60 for the first time since July.
*Oil prices steadied at $70 lows following their largest drop in nearly 2 weeks, pressured by a weak outlook in China. Crude traders are considering global demand prospects for 2025, potential impacts from Donald Trump’s presidential win, and geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. A global surplus is expected next year, and influential outlooks, including OPEC’s report on Tuesday, are anticipated.
*Gold remains under pressure, as the US election outcome boosted the US Dollar and prompted a reversal of haven flows. The precious metal is currently trading at $2669 per ounce, slightly above the lows seen in the aftermath of the election and before the Fed cut rates.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 5th September 2024.


US Jobs Vacancies Fall to 3-Year Low Pressuring The US Dollar!


*US Job Vacancies drop to their lowest level in more than 3 years. The US Dollar Index declines.
*The best performing currency of the week is the Japanese Yen. Investors are turning to the only Central Bank which is not going to cut rates in 2024.
*The possibility of a 50-basis point rate cut increases, but economists stick to their 0.25% predictions for now.
*Oil prices fall close to lowest levels of 2024. Shareholders expect lower oil prices to prompt a lower inflation rate over the next 2 months.


USDJPY – JOLTS Job Data Points To Potential Larger Rate Cuts!


The price of the US Dollar came under pressure from the latest US job vacancies figures which fell below expectations. US Job Vacancies dropped to their lowest level in more than 3 years. The US Dollar Index as a result fell 0.42% and continues to be the worst performing currency of the day this morning. The Japanese Yen is currently increasing 0.43% higher and is the day’s best performing currency. This ensures no conflict between the two currencies so far, but investors will need to ensure this trend continues while they trade.


The July JOLTS job openings data was released today, revealing a decrease from 8.18 million to 7.67 million, signaling continued weakening in the labor market and raising the chances of a significant rate cut. Additionally, the Fed’s Beige Book economic review will be published later in the day, providing insight into the current economic conditions across different regions of the US.


According to experts, the possibility of the Bank of Japan again increasing interest rates is growing but the timing is not yet certain. However, even without an interest rate hike, the Japanese Yen is likely to witness support as global banks cut rates. This includes the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank. During this morning’s Asian session, the Japanese Yen has risen in value against all currencies. Though, investors will monitor that this does not change as the European trading session starts.


USDJPY – Technical Analysis Update


Upcoming Events


The price action throughout the remainder of the week will depend largely on the US Dollar. Today’s ISM Services PMI, ADP Employment Change and tomorrow’s official employment data will significantly influence the US Dollar and the USDJPY. Thereafter the market will turn their attention towards comments from members of the FOMC and the US inflation data.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 23rd September 2024.


Market Update – Gold at record highs; Stocks climb amid Chinese stimulus bets.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Asian markets were mostly positive on Monday, buoyed by last week’s interest rate decisions from central banks in the US, Japan, China, and the UK.
*PBOC reduced its 14-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.85% from 1.95%, following a decision to keep key lending rates unchanged the previous week. China’s decision to hold an unusual economic briefing involving three top financial regulators and its cut to a key short-term policy rate heightened speculation about forthcoming stimulus efforts.
*Chinese stocks rose after the bank’s announcement.
*Japan’s stock markets were closed due to a public holiday.
*Attention remained on the BoJ which also stayed put (0.25%) & Ueda suggested that the central bank is cautious on further tightening amid ongoing uncertainty. This decision led to a drop in the Yen.
*Australia’s ASX 200 dipped 0.5% to 8,170.50 as the RBA prepared for a 2-day policy meeting. The NASDAQ and S&P500 stumbled on Friday to 17,948 and 5702. The Dow edged up 0.1%, reaching a new record high of 42,579.
*This week: key US economic data is expected, including reports on business activity, consumer spending, and a final revision of the economy’s growth during the spring.

The Fed’s decision to cut its key interest rate last week for the first time in over 4 years, with further cuts expected, signaled a shift from its previous high-rate stance aimed at curbing inflation. While inflation has eased, concerns remain about the slowing pace of job growth due to the weight of higher interest rates. Some critics argue that the Fed may have delayed rate cuts too long, potentially harming the economy.

Financial Markets Performance:


*Gold surged to a record high, reaching $2,631.13, as traders anticipated more rate cuts by the Fed following its recent 50 bps reduction. Bullion’s momentum was further supported by concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East, with investors turning to gold as a safe-haven asset. Despite this rally, gold may be overbought, with its RSI nearing 70, a signal of possible short-term overextension.
*Meanwhile, silver, palladium, and platinum posted losses.
*USOIL rose to $71.59 per barrel, while UKOIL gained 52 cents, reaching $75.01 per barrel. Currently they have both seen a pullback slightly into EU open.
*Yen slid from last week’s high of around 140 per US dollar to 144.36 yen by today.
*The USDIndex steadied to 100.50 area.
*The Euro inched higher to 1.1164 but currently is steady after Germany’s Social Democrats narrowly defeated the far-right Alternative for Germany party, maintaining control of the eastern state of Brandenburg. Meanwhile, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier signaled potential tax increases on large corporations and the wealthy to address the country’s growing budget deficit.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th October 2024.


Stocks steady ahead of ECB, BTC Up, Oil below $70.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*Wall Street, Treasuries, the US Dollar, and Gold all gained yesterday amid a variety of factors. Earnings beats, rate cut expectations, growth concerns, geopolitical risks, some stability in oil all contributed. The market continues to price for -25 bp rate cuts in November and December.
*The Dow bounced 0.79% to 43,077 to its 38th record high of the year. Financials helped pace after more earnings beats, this time from JPM. Weakness in some tech shares, including ASML, limited the advance in the S&P500 and NASDAQ.
*Asian shares predominantly rose today following stronger-than-expected earnings reports from major companies like Morgan Stanley and United Airlines. Chinese markets lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures.
*European stocks are expected to have a lackluster opening as traders await a decision from the ECB regarding monetary policy.
*The rally in Chinese shares lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures. The CSI 300 in China reversed a rally of up to 1.3% after officials revealed plans to expand support for “white list” projects to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) from the previously deployed 2.23 trillion yuan.
*ECB Preview: with headline inflation below target and signs that services price inflation has peaked, the ECB’s focus has switched from inflation risks to growth concerns. The flurry of comments from ECB officials over the past week have pretty much confirmed that Lagarde will deliver another 25 bp cut on Thursday. We expect the ECB to cut again in December, although the central bank head may once again stop short of committing to another move just yet. Even if the ECB cuts rates by a further 50 bp this year, policy settings will remain restrictive and the “end-rate” of the current easing cycle is likely to be higher than markets expected initially and clearly above the low point of the last easing cycle. That will likely keep bonds volatile.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex climbed to 103.55, a third straight session over 103 and is up 3 handles from the 100.79 close on September 30. The rally broken the 200-day SMA.
*Oil dipped below the $70.00 per barrel. Energy prices have generally been influenced by oil market fluctuations, particularly as fears diminish over potential Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities, which could disrupt exports to China and other regions. Additionally, concerns about demand strength amid China’s economic slowdown have impacted oil prices.
*Bitcoin rallied with markets viewing the climb as a sign that markets anticipate a victory for pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.
*Gold rose to $2685 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 12th November 2024.


Market Buzz: Trump Trade Impact!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


“Trump trade” has boosted the US Dollar and US stocks, but Trump’s policies may have less favorable effects on global assets. Trump’s plan to raise tariffs is expected to negatively impact economies worldwide, especially exporters like China.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Bitcoin Surge! Bitcoin broke $90K, driven by Trump trade once again. Bitcoin is up roughly 110% in 2024, helped by robust demand for dedicated US ETFs, interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and Trump’s cryptofriendly agenda.
*Crypto market capitalization has exceeded its pandemic-era peak, reaching $3.1 trillion. Traders are betting on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end, according to data from the Deribit exchange.
*Open interest — or outstanding contracts — for CME Group Inc. futures for Bitcoin and second-ranked Ether (ETHUSD) scaled records on Monday, a sign of growing engagement by US institutional investors.
*Asian shares dropped, alongside European and US equity futures, as traders evaluated the implications of President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda and potential cabinet choices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for a third consecutive day, driven by rising Treasury yields amid concerns that Trump’s proposed tax cuts could increase inflation.
*There are also reports that Trump is considering two individuals for prominent roles in his administration with track records of criticizing China.
*DAX and FTSE100 are down -1.1% and -0.5% respectively, after a pickup in German HICP inflation and higher than expected UK wage growth dampened easing expectations.
*Investors await the US CPI report for insights into the Fed’s easing path, as Trump’s inflationary policies may lead to fewer rate cuts.


Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex continues to rise and is currently at 105.75. It hit a 1-year high.
*EURUSD drifts to 1.0620 and GBPUSD is in a sell off, currently at 1.2800.
*Oil prices fell after their biggest 2-week decline, amid a weak demand outlook from China, a stronger US Dollar, and concerns over a potential oversupply.
*Crude oil has traded within a narrow range since mid-last month, influenced by Middle East tensions, the US election, and OPEC+ output decisions.
*Gold remains under pressure and is currently at just $2604.36 per ounce. It hit a one-month low, down 5% since Trump’s election victory, as a strong dollar and US equity rotation pressured the metal. Gold’s decline was also technical, breaking below the 50-day moving average, causing funds to cover long positions. Despite recent drops, gold remains up 25% for the year, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.v

[HFM]

Date: 9th September 2024.

Market Update – How Aggressively Might the Fed Cut Interest Rates?

The August jobs data did not provide the clarity on the rate outlook that had been hoped and left the markets to their own devices. Concurrently, comments from Fed Governor Waller left the door open for an aggressive -50 bps cut after he said he favored front-loading policy action, but stressed only if appropriate.

Asia & European Sessions:

*European & US equity markets open in the green, following a recent selloff due to weaker-than-expected US jobs data. Wall Street plunged on Friday, as the NASDAQ collapsed -2.55%, with the S&P 500 and Dow down -1.73% and 1.01%, respectively.
*Asian markets followed the global downturn, with stocks in Taiwan, Australia, and Japan experiencing declines. Nikkei dropped for a 5th consecutive day.
*Asia’s benchmark index fell to a 3-week low. Chinese stocks are on the brink of falling to the 5-year low seen in February due to weak earnings and economic recovery. The CSI 300 Index has fallen over 13% since its peak in May, reflecting ineffective policy efforts to revive the economy. Market pessimism in China is fueled by deflationary pressures, weak consumer demand, and a prolonged property slump.
*Economic experts suggest that unless there is a significant policy shift, bearish sentiment may persist.
*Japan: Q2 GDP was revised down to a 0.7% pace, bouncing from the -0.6% contraction in Q1. It ties Q2 2023 for the fastest pace of growth since the 1.3% rate in Q1 2023. The deflator was revised up to a 3.2% y/y rate from 3.0% y/y.
*BOJ: The data leave the door open for another BOJ hike down the road, though we suspect policymakers will be sidelined at the upcoming meeting on September 20 to further assess conditions.
*China CPI edged up to a 0.6% y/y rate in August. It is a seventh month in positive territory after four straight months of deflation (from October through January). Nevertheless, price weakness continues to reflect the slack in demand and the very sluggish growth pace in the economy. And even more serious, PPI plunged to -1.8% y/y in August from -0.8% y/y, the biggest drop since April. And producer prices have been in deflation since September 2022.

While a September Fed rate cut is expected, uncertainty remains about the scale and frequency of future cuts.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDindex slumped to 100.58 before bouncing to a 101.187 close.
*The USDJPY lifted to 143.21. The Yen corrected, which helped to limit the slide in the Nikkei.
*The EURUSD and Cable are lower, at currently 1.1059 and 1.31 respectively.
*Oil drifted to $66.67 before recovering slightly to $68.20. Oil marked its lowest close since 2021 after a deep weekly loss pushed futures near levels regarded as oversold, with the focus on weather risks (Storm in Mexico) and reports this week that may clarify the demand outlook.
*Gold tumbling between $2485-2500.
*Iron ore prices fell below $90 per ton for the first time since 2022.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.