HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 11th October 2024.


Treasuries close mixed, Wall Street lower, US Dollar steady after data – Eyes on PPI.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


The hotter CPI and cooler jobless claims made for mixed action in the markets. There was also some marginal impact from the 30-year auction and Fedspeak.


Treasuries were bifurcated in a curve steepening trade with the front end outperforming. The jump in claims, even if due in part to weather, strikes and other factors, supported expectations for additional rate cuts ahead, though of the -25 bp variety. The 2-year yield closed -5.6 bps lower at 3.966%. Dip buyers from the 4% rate also underpinned. Meanwhile, the long end was heavy on the hotter CPI and with the weight of supply. The 10-year was fractionally lower at 4.067%, but had spiked to 4.115% on the pop in inflation. The curve closed at 10.4 bps from 4 bps Wednesday.


Wall Street finished in the red after the Dow and S&P500 hit fresh records previously. The indexes were well off their lows at the end of the day. The NASDAQ dipped -0.05%, while the S&P500 was -0.21% lower and the Dow was down -0.14%.


The USDIndex finished little changed at 102.70 after jumping to a session high of 103.178 on the CPI then slipping to the day’s low of 102.720 on the claims numbers.


Oil climbed 3.26% to $75.63 per barrel and Gold rose 0.84% to $2629.51 per ounce.


Implied Fed funds futures continue to price in -25 bp cuts ahead, with some chance for no action rather than another jumbo -50 bps. Indeed, the latter has been priced out. This view was supported by the FOMC minutes yesterday that showed a big debate and some push back over the decision to lower rates by -50 bps on September 18. We continue to expect two quarter point reductions over the rest of this year.


In spite of being data dependent, we highly doubt the FOMC will skip November as they kick off their normalization process, especially as officials will be loath to do a start-stop so soon. And Chair Powell and others have told us to monitor the dot plot reflecting -25 bps in November and December as the base case.


Looking Ahead:


The hotter CPI puts attention on PPI and the inflation components of the consumer sentiment report due out Friday. Respective gains of 0.1% and 0.2% are projected for headline and core producer prices in September after increases of 0.2% and 0.3% in August. Results in line with the estimates would see the headline pace dip to a 1.6% y/y rate from 1.7% y/y previously, while the core rate should rise to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% y/y.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 8th November 2024.


Can Trump Bring Oil Prices Down To $40? NASDAQ Renews Its Highs!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


*The NASDAQ, Dow Jones and SNP500 continue to renew their all time highs for a second consecutive day.
*NVIDIA tops the NASDAQ as the most influential stock, surpassing Apple and Microsoft.
*Crude Oil prices break below the ascending triangle pattern as investors closely monitor any signals from President-elect Trump on how he plans to bring oil prices down.
*The Federal Reserve indicates that it will keep lowering interest rates but plans to pause for an extended period at a certain point.


NASDAQ – The NASDAQ Continues To Renew Price Highs!


The NASDAQ continues to increase in value and renew its all time high for a second consecutive day. This week the index has risen 5.70% and investors are contemplating if the index will retrace this Friday due to the large impulse wave. However, investors will be looking for larger downward momentum before determining whether a retracement throughout the day is possible.





One of this week’s best performing stocks for the NASDAQ which is gaining more momentum and attention is Tesla. During the presidential race, Elon Musk, the company’s CEO, endorsed Trump’s candidacy, contributing $75 million to his campaign. In return, Donald Trump pledged to appoint Musk to lead the Commission on Government Efficiency, which oversees budget expenditures. This appointment would enable Tesla Inc. and Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) to secure new contracts. Over the past decade, collaboration with the government has brought the company $15.4 billion.


Investors continue to also evaluate the comments from the Federal Reserve on Thursday evening. At a press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that while inflation remains slightly above the 2.0% target, monetary authorities are confident it is under control. However, the growth rate of consumer prices, excluding food and energy costs, is still “somewhat elevated.” Powell added that despite the current easing of monetary policy, officials are prepared to pause if macroeconomic data suggest the need.


The Fed is also considering a scenario in which borrowing costs hold steady at current levels during its December meeting. Powell further noted that actions by the incoming government and Congress could affect the economic outlook over time, and forecasts of these impacts will be incorporated into models that assess various aspects of the US economic system.


As mentioned above, investors are taking into consideration if the price will retrace after such a strong upward trend throughout the week. However, elements do still continue to point to short term upward price movement. For example, the VIX Index continues to fall as have bond yields. The VIX index trades 3.00% lower on Friday and the 10-Year Bond Yields has fallen 37 points.


Crude Oil – Can Trump Achieve $40 Per Barrel?





The Euro continues to witness a lack of demand and is again one of the weakest currencies of the day. The Euro index is currently trading 0.20% higher which is only better than the US Dollar Index and Swiss Franc. The best performing currencies of the day are the New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar.





The price movement of Crude Oil over the past week has formed an ascending triangle pattern. However, the support level was broken this morning after the corrective wave surpassed 1.75%.


Oil traders worry that the new US President-elect will put considerable pressure on the Chinese economy. This can potentially lead to a sharp drop in oil demand from the world’s largest importer. The EIA’s weekly report yesterday showed an increase in oil reserves by 2.149 million barrels, much higher than the expected 0.300 million barrels, with gasoline reserves rising by 0.412 million barrels and distillates by 2.947 million barrels. The decline could have been steeper, but Hurricane Rafael had closed 17% of oil production capacity in the Mexican Gulf.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 25th November 2024.


New Secretary Cheers Markets; Trump Trade Eased.





Asia & European Sessions:


*Equities and Treasuries rise, as markets view Donald Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary as a stabilizing decision for the US economy and markets.
*Bessent: Head of macro hedge fund Key Square Group, supports Trump’s tax and tariff policies but gradually. He is expected to focus on economic and market stability rather than political gains. His nomination alleviates concerns over protectionist policies that could escalate inflation, trade tensions, and market volatility.
*Asian stocks rose, driven by gains in Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Chinese equities fail to follow regional trends, presenting investors’ continued disappointment by the lack of strong fiscal measures to boost the economy. The PBOC keeps policy loan rates unchanged after the September cut.
*US futures also see slight increases. 10-year Treasury yields fall by 5 basis points to 4.35%. Nvidia dropped 3.2%, affected by its high valuation and influence on broader market trends. Intuit fell 5.7% after a disappointing earnings forecast. Meta Platforms declined 0.7% following the Supreme Court’s decision to allow a class action lawsuit over the Cambridge Analytica scandal.


Key events this week:


*Japan’s CPI, as the BOJ signals a possible policy change at December’s meeting.
*RBNZ expected to cut its key rate on Wednesday.
*CPI & GDP from Europe will be released.
Traders will focus on the Fed’s November meeting minutes, along with consumer confidence and personal consumption expenditure data, to assess potential rate cuts next year.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The US Dollar declines as US Treasuries climb.
*Bitcoin recovers from a weekend drop, hovering around 98,000, having more than doubled in value this year. Analysts suggest consolidation around the 100,000 level before any potential breakthrough.
*EURUSD recovers slightly to 1.0463 from 1.0320 lows.
*Oil prices drop after the largest weekly increase in nearly two months, with ongoing geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East. UKOIL fell below $75 a barrel, while USOIL is at $70.35.
*Iran announced plans to boost its nuclear fuel-making capacity after being censured by the UN, increasing the potential for sanctions under Trump’s administration.
*Israel’s ambassador to the US indicated a potential cease-fire deal with Hezbollah, which could ease concerns about Middle Eastern oil production, a region supplying about a third of the world’s oil.
*Russia’s war in Ukraine escalated with longer-range missile use, raising concerns about potential disruptions to crude flows.
*Citigroup and JPMorgan predict that OPEC may delay a planned increase in production for the third time during their meeting this weekend.
*Gold falls to $2667.45 after its largest rise in 20 months last week.Swaps traders see a less-than-even chance the central bank will cut rates next month. Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on gold, as it doesn’t pay interest.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 2nd September 2024.


Is The Dow Jones Overpriced? The DJIA Declines On Monday!


*Markets expect US employment data to improve adding a further 160,000 employees to the country’s payroll.
*Analysts expect US Job vacancies to drop to their lowest level in 2024, but to remain at the 5-Year Average.
*According to the Chicago exchange, an interest rate cut on September 18th is certain. Markets expect a 0.25% rate cut.
*Strong gains on Friday evening saved the US Stock Market from witnessing another bearish close.


Dow Jones (USA30) – Recurring Pattern


On Friday, the stock market quickly fell at the opening of the US Session but thereafter the market quickly rose to close at a higher price. Investors should note that of the past 7 trading sessions, this has been a known pattern. Of the past 7 trading sessions the price has fallen at the open and then corrected on 5 occasions. A positive factor for the Dow Jones is the price is forming higher swing lows and is witnessing less bearish momentum over the past week.


Dow Jones Components


The Dow Jones’ components on Friday saw 5 stocks fall while 25 stocks rose in value. Therefore, 83% of the index rose in value confirming buy signals could have been relevant. Though, during today’s session investors should note that the US 10-Year T-Bond rose in value by 42 points. Currently, the VIX index is more or less unchanged, but as the US 10-Year T-Bond trades significantly higher, investors will need to be cautious of volatility. If the VIX increases in value and Bonds Yields remain significantly higher, the price of the Dow Jones may witness a horizontal trend. It will also be vital to again review the percentage of the components witnessing bullish and bearish price movements.


Earnings season is almost at a close, the only major company yet to release its earnings report is Broadcom. However, Broadcom stocks are not a component of the Dow Jones and the report will simply impact the market only through the broader market sentiment. Analysts will concentrate their attention on this week’s ISM PMI release, JOLTS Job Openings and the Employment data on Friday.


Ideally investors will want to see neither weak data which will trigger low consumer demand fears, nor positive data which will make rate cuts less likely. Ideally, investors would like to see the data read in line with expectations. Currently the market is pricing in 0.75% to 1.25% rate cuts in 2024. If the Fed indicates less than 0.75%, the stock market is likely to be overpriced.


Dow Jones Technical Analysis


In terms of technical analysis, the Dow Jones has been the only index which has continuously held above the 75 and 100 Period Moving Averages. Meanwhile, the SNP500 and NASDAQ have been unable to maintain momentum. Higher demand is due to the Market’s lower risk appetite and investors increasing exposure away from the technology market. However, the price is now trading very close to its all-time highs and close to its overbought market on most oscillators. Therefore, investors will be looking for further price drivers to regain momentum.


According to Fibonacci retracement levels, if the price declines, a retracement could fall as far as $41,339.55. If global indices rise and at least 65-70% of the Dow Jones’ stocks rise, investors may deem a breakout of the $41,641.00 level as a signal to speculate a price increase.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 20th September 2024.


Bigger Interest Rate Cuts Spark Surge In Demand For The NASDAQ!

*Stocks rally after the Federal Reserve chooses to “go-large” with a 0.50% interest rate cut.
*The NASDAQ rises more than 2.50% and the Dow Jones 1.26%. The Dow Jones trades at an all-time high.
*UK Retail Sales rose significantly above expectations. The Great British Pound Index rises 0.35% and is the best performing index after the Japanese Yen.
*Gold attempts to break an all-time high as analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut a further 0.50% by the end of the year.


NASDAQ – Larger Interest Rate Cuts Prompt Higher Demand


The NASDAQ saw a clear bullish trend with the index rising for 5 consecutive hours as the US Session opened. The higher demand is a clear result of the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates 0.50% and not 0.25%.


The US Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point reduction in the interest rate, lowering it from 5.25–5.50% to 4.75–5.00%. In his remarks, Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, highlighted that the target inflation rate of 2% had been achieved but suggested further decreases could follow. The updated economic forecast projects consumer price growth at 2.3% by the end of the year, down from the previous estimate of 2.6%. Furthermore, economic growth is now forecasted at 2%, compared to the 2.1% predicted in July.

In terms of technical analysis, the medium-term picture remains neutral. This is due to the RSI trading at the neutral level, and the price trading above the trend-line and the 100-Period SMA, but retracing downwards. Therefore, the overall scenario remains neutral. However, if the price rises above $2,576.00, buy signals are likely to strengthen.


GBPJPY – UK Inflation Holds at 2.2%, Yen Struggles to Gain Momentum Outside Asia!


The price of the GBPJPY trades considerably lower on Wednesday due to the higher value of the Japanese Yen. So far the Japanese Yen is the day’s best performing index and was trading 0.32% higher against the currency market. However, technical analysts have noted that the Yen’s performance becomes poorer within the European session. As the European session edges closer the Japanese Yen Index has fallen 0.06%. The price movement of the Japanese Yen will largely depend on the Fed’s rate decision due to recent correlations.

As a result, the Fed expects the key rate to drop to 4.50% this year and reach 3.40% by the end of 2025. Therefore, investors are changing their view as to the “intrinsic value” of the NASDAQ and the stock market in general. The NASDAQ on Thursday was the best performing index largely due to its exposure to growth stocks. Of the NASDAQ’s individual stocks, 85% rose in value on Thursday and none of the top ten influential stocks depreciated.


When monitoring other areas of the market, such as bond yields, indications still remain that buyers will control the NASDAQ. The US 10-Year Treasury Yields has fallen 0.024% during this morning’s asian session. Lower bond yields are known to be positive for the NASDAQ, and investors will continue monitoring the decline in yields throughout the day. The VIX index this morning is trading 0.15% higher; ideally buyers and shareholders would wish for the VIX to decline into a minus figure. Yesterday’s stronger employment data also continues to support the NASDAQ and stocks in general.


Technical analysis continues to indicate bullish price movement due to the upward momentum and volatility. However, as the NASDAQ is currently retracing, upward momentum will need to be regained in order for a buy signal to materialize. When attaching the Fibonnaci retracement levels onto the retracement, a potential buy signal can be seen at $19,920. However, investors are also concerned the price is trading at the resistance level from August 22nd.


GBPUSD – UK Retail Sales Significantly Higher Than Expectations!


The GBPUSD rose to its highest level since February 2022 after rising 0.38% during this morning’s Asian Session. The bullish price movement is related to both the US Dollar’s decline but also the bullish price movement the Pound has seen against the whole currency market. Currently, the GBP is the best performing currency of 2024 so far but also of the day. So far in 2024, the British Pound has risen 4.42%.

The Pound’s upward momentum is largely due to the Bank of England’s decision to keep its interest rate at 5.00%, whereas other global regulators had opted to cut interest rates. In addition to this, the UK’s Retail Sales figure for August read 1.0%, significantly higher than the previous expectations of 0.2%.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 15th October 2024.


Global Markets Mixed Amid Earnings Optimism and Easing Oil Concerns.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


The market’s momentum, fueled by optimism around earnings reports, falling interest rates and expectations that the Federal Reserve can reduce inflation without triggering a recession.


Asia & European Sessions:


*European futures rose while Asian stocks showed mixed performance following Wall Street’s record highs.
*Chinese shares saw extended losses after disappointing data showed China’s broader export growth slowed to just 2.4% year-on-year, the weakest since May, reflecting ongoing economic challenges. The lack of clear fiscal stimulus from Chinese authorities continues to weigh on investor sentiment and risk appetite in Chinese equities.
*Technology stocks in Asia followed the strong lead from their US counterparts, with the S&P500 gaining nearly 1% to reach its 46th record high this year. Despite concerns over lowered Q3 forecasts, investors seem to be betting on positive earnings surprises. The Nasdaq also advanced by 0.8%, led by gains in Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc., and Tesla Inc. Financial stocks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup rose ahead of their earnings releases.
*Nikkei hit its highest level since July, with benchmarks in Australia and Taiwan also trending upward. Japanese stocks were among the strongest performers so far today, with the Yen maintaining strength near a key psychological level against the US Dollar.
*Earnings reports: Bank of America, Johnson & Johnson, and UnitedHealth Group.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex strengthened against most major currencies.
*The USDJPY slightly dipped to 149.34 from 149.96. The EURUSD broke 1.09 and extended to 1.0830.
*USoil dropped sharply to $70.60 per barrel from $4.18 high yesterday. Oil prices declined as concerns about potential Israeli strikes on Iranian energy facilities eased. Oil and energy shares dropped after reports indicated Israel does not intend to target Iranian oil or nuclear sites.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 11th November 2024.


Bitcoin Skyrockets to $81k; Asian Stocks Down; Markets weigh the risk of “Trump-tariffs”.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Bitcoin surged past $81,000 for the first time (94% higher for 2024), fueled by President-elect Donald Trump’s decisive victory, winning all seven US battleground states, including Arizona. The digital-asset industry, which invested over $100 million in pro-crypto candidates, celebrated the outcome.
*Trump pledged to make the US a hub for digital assets, including plans for a strategic Bitcoin stockpile and appointing crypto-friendly regulators.
*Dogecoin skyrocketed to highest price since 2021 (promoted by Trump supporter Elon Musk).
*Japanese indexes rallied as discussions at the last BoJ meeting focused on a cautious approach to additional rate cuts.
*Asian shares fell following concerns that China’s debt swap program may not be adequate, alongside data indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy. Investor sentiment is also dampened by declining foreign direct investment especially after Donald Trump’s presidential victory injected fresh uncertainty over tariffs.
*China’s inflation reports were weak, reflecting further deflation in wholesale prices. China’s trade surplus is poised to reach a new record this year. If the gap between exports and imports keeps expanding at its current rate, it could approach $1 trillion, based on Bloomberg’s calculations. These are ominous signs for the economy that continues to struggle.


Financial Markets Performance:


*European stock markets are mostly higher, with DAX and FTSE100 posting gains of 1.0% and 0.6% respectively.
*Bond markets are closed in the US and Canada today and while equity markets are open, trading conditions are likely to be quieter than usual.
*US equity futures are currently higher, led by a 0.4% rise in the NASDAQ.
*The USDIndex climbed back above 105.
*EURUSD drifts to 1.069 and GBPUSD retests once again a break below 1.2900.
The USDJPY rebounds and extends again to 153.60 for the first time since July.
*Oil prices steadied at $70 lows following their largest drop in nearly 2 weeks, pressured by a weak outlook in China. Crude traders are considering global demand prospects for 2025, potential impacts from Donald Trump’s presidential win, and geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. A global surplus is expected next year, and influential outlooks, including OPEC’s report on Tuesday, are anticipated.
*Gold remains under pressure, as the US election outcome boosted the US Dollar and prompted a reversal of haven flows. The precious metal is currently trading at $2669 per ounce, slightly above the lows seen in the aftermath of the election and before the Fed cut rates.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 5th September 2024.


US Jobs Vacancies Fall to 3-Year Low Pressuring The US Dollar!


*US Job Vacancies drop to their lowest level in more than 3 years. The US Dollar Index declines.
*The best performing currency of the week is the Japanese Yen. Investors are turning to the only Central Bank which is not going to cut rates in 2024.
*The possibility of a 50-basis point rate cut increases, but economists stick to their 0.25% predictions for now.
*Oil prices fall close to lowest levels of 2024. Shareholders expect lower oil prices to prompt a lower inflation rate over the next 2 months.


USDJPY – JOLTS Job Data Points To Potential Larger Rate Cuts!


The price of the US Dollar came under pressure from the latest US job vacancies figures which fell below expectations. US Job Vacancies dropped to their lowest level in more than 3 years. The US Dollar Index as a result fell 0.42% and continues to be the worst performing currency of the day this morning. The Japanese Yen is currently increasing 0.43% higher and is the day’s best performing currency. This ensures no conflict between the two currencies so far, but investors will need to ensure this trend continues while they trade.


The July JOLTS job openings data was released today, revealing a decrease from 8.18 million to 7.67 million, signaling continued weakening in the labor market and raising the chances of a significant rate cut. Additionally, the Fed’s Beige Book economic review will be published later in the day, providing insight into the current economic conditions across different regions of the US.


According to experts, the possibility of the Bank of Japan again increasing interest rates is growing but the timing is not yet certain. However, even without an interest rate hike, the Japanese Yen is likely to witness support as global banks cut rates. This includes the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank. During this morning’s Asian session, the Japanese Yen has risen in value against all currencies. Though, investors will monitor that this does not change as the European trading session starts.


USDJPY – Technical Analysis Update


Upcoming Events


The price action throughout the remainder of the week will depend largely on the US Dollar. Today’s ISM Services PMI, ADP Employment Change and tomorrow’s official employment data will significantly influence the US Dollar and the USDJPY. Thereafter the market will turn their attention towards comments from members of the FOMC and the US inflation data.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 23rd September 2024.


Market Update – Gold at record highs; Stocks climb amid Chinese stimulus bets.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Asian markets were mostly positive on Monday, buoyed by last week’s interest rate decisions from central banks in the US, Japan, China, and the UK.
*PBOC reduced its 14-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.85% from 1.95%, following a decision to keep key lending rates unchanged the previous week. China’s decision to hold an unusual economic briefing involving three top financial regulators and its cut to a key short-term policy rate heightened speculation about forthcoming stimulus efforts.
*Chinese stocks rose after the bank’s announcement.
*Japan’s stock markets were closed due to a public holiday.
*Attention remained on the BoJ which also stayed put (0.25%) & Ueda suggested that the central bank is cautious on further tightening amid ongoing uncertainty. This decision led to a drop in the Yen.
*Australia’s ASX 200 dipped 0.5% to 8,170.50 as the RBA prepared for a 2-day policy meeting. The NASDAQ and S&P500 stumbled on Friday to 17,948 and 5702. The Dow edged up 0.1%, reaching a new record high of 42,579.
*This week: key US economic data is expected, including reports on business activity, consumer spending, and a final revision of the economy’s growth during the spring.

The Fed’s decision to cut its key interest rate last week for the first time in over 4 years, with further cuts expected, signaled a shift from its previous high-rate stance aimed at curbing inflation. While inflation has eased, concerns remain about the slowing pace of job growth due to the weight of higher interest rates. Some critics argue that the Fed may have delayed rate cuts too long, potentially harming the economy.

Financial Markets Performance:


*Gold surged to a record high, reaching $2,631.13, as traders anticipated more rate cuts by the Fed following its recent 50 bps reduction. Bullion’s momentum was further supported by concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East, with investors turning to gold as a safe-haven asset. Despite this rally, gold may be overbought, with its RSI nearing 70, a signal of possible short-term overextension.
*Meanwhile, silver, palladium, and platinum posted losses.
*USOIL rose to $71.59 per barrel, while UKOIL gained 52 cents, reaching $75.01 per barrel. Currently they have both seen a pullback slightly into EU open.
*Yen slid from last week’s high of around 140 per US dollar to 144.36 yen by today.
*The USDIndex steadied to 100.50 area.
*The Euro inched higher to 1.1164 but currently is steady after Germany’s Social Democrats narrowly defeated the far-right Alternative for Germany party, maintaining control of the eastern state of Brandenburg. Meanwhile, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier signaled potential tax increases on large corporations and the wealthy to address the country’s growing budget deficit.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th October 2024.


Stocks steady ahead of ECB, BTC Up, Oil below $70.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*Wall Street, Treasuries, the US Dollar, and Gold all gained yesterday amid a variety of factors. Earnings beats, rate cut expectations, growth concerns, geopolitical risks, some stability in oil all contributed. The market continues to price for -25 bp rate cuts in November and December.
*The Dow bounced 0.79% to 43,077 to its 38th record high of the year. Financials helped pace after more earnings beats, this time from JPM. Weakness in some tech shares, including ASML, limited the advance in the S&P500 and NASDAQ.
*Asian shares predominantly rose today following stronger-than-expected earnings reports from major companies like Morgan Stanley and United Airlines. Chinese markets lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures.
*European stocks are expected to have a lackluster opening as traders await a decision from the ECB regarding monetary policy.
*The rally in Chinese shares lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures. The CSI 300 in China reversed a rally of up to 1.3% after officials revealed plans to expand support for “white list” projects to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) from the previously deployed 2.23 trillion yuan.
*ECB Preview: with headline inflation below target and signs that services price inflation has peaked, the ECB’s focus has switched from inflation risks to growth concerns. The flurry of comments from ECB officials over the past week have pretty much confirmed that Lagarde will deliver another 25 bp cut on Thursday. We expect the ECB to cut again in December, although the central bank head may once again stop short of committing to another move just yet. Even if the ECB cuts rates by a further 50 bp this year, policy settings will remain restrictive and the “end-rate” of the current easing cycle is likely to be higher than markets expected initially and clearly above the low point of the last easing cycle. That will likely keep bonds volatile.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex climbed to 103.55, a third straight session over 103 and is up 3 handles from the 100.79 close on September 30. The rally broken the 200-day SMA.
*Oil dipped below the $70.00 per barrel. Energy prices have generally been influenced by oil market fluctuations, particularly as fears diminish over potential Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities, which could disrupt exports to China and other regions. Additionally, concerns about demand strength amid China’s economic slowdown have impacted oil prices.
*Bitcoin rallied with markets viewing the climb as a sign that markets anticipate a victory for pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.
*Gold rose to $2685 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.