HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 23rd September 2024.


Market Update – Gold at record highs; Stocks climb amid Chinese stimulus bets.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Asian markets were mostly positive on Monday, buoyed by last week’s interest rate decisions from central banks in the US, Japan, China, and the UK.
*PBOC reduced its 14-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.85% from 1.95%, following a decision to keep key lending rates unchanged the previous week. China’s decision to hold an unusual economic briefing involving three top financial regulators and its cut to a key short-term policy rate heightened speculation about forthcoming stimulus efforts.
*Chinese stocks rose after the bank’s announcement.
*Japan’s stock markets were closed due to a public holiday.
*Attention remained on the BoJ which also stayed put (0.25%) & Ueda suggested that the central bank is cautious on further tightening amid ongoing uncertainty. This decision led to a drop in the Yen.
*Australia’s ASX 200 dipped 0.5% to 8,170.50 as the RBA prepared for a 2-day policy meeting. The NASDAQ and S&P500 stumbled on Friday to 17,948 and 5702. The Dow edged up 0.1%, reaching a new record high of 42,579.
*This week: key US economic data is expected, including reports on business activity, consumer spending, and a final revision of the economy’s growth during the spring.

The Fed’s decision to cut its key interest rate last week for the first time in over 4 years, with further cuts expected, signaled a shift from its previous high-rate stance aimed at curbing inflation. While inflation has eased, concerns remain about the slowing pace of job growth due to the weight of higher interest rates. Some critics argue that the Fed may have delayed rate cuts too long, potentially harming the economy.

Financial Markets Performance:


*Gold surged to a record high, reaching $2,631.13, as traders anticipated more rate cuts by the Fed following its recent 50 bps reduction. Bullion’s momentum was further supported by concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East, with investors turning to gold as a safe-haven asset. Despite this rally, gold may be overbought, with its RSI nearing 70, a signal of possible short-term overextension.
*Meanwhile, silver, palladium, and platinum posted losses.
*USOIL rose to $71.59 per barrel, while UKOIL gained 52 cents, reaching $75.01 per barrel. Currently they have both seen a pullback slightly into EU open.
*Yen slid from last week’s high of around 140 per US dollar to 144.36 yen by today.
*The USDIndex steadied to 100.50 area.
*The Euro inched higher to 1.1164 but currently is steady after Germany’s Social Democrats narrowly defeated the far-right Alternative for Germany party, maintaining control of the eastern state of Brandenburg. Meanwhile, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier signaled potential tax increases on large corporations and the wealthy to address the country’s growing budget deficit.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th October 2024.


Stocks steady ahead of ECB, BTC Up, Oil below $70.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*Wall Street, Treasuries, the US Dollar, and Gold all gained yesterday amid a variety of factors. Earnings beats, rate cut expectations, growth concerns, geopolitical risks, some stability in oil all contributed. The market continues to price for -25 bp rate cuts in November and December.
*The Dow bounced 0.79% to 43,077 to its 38th record high of the year. Financials helped pace after more earnings beats, this time from JPM. Weakness in some tech shares, including ASML, limited the advance in the S&P500 and NASDAQ.
*Asian shares predominantly rose today following stronger-than-expected earnings reports from major companies like Morgan Stanley and United Airlines. Chinese markets lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures.
*European stocks are expected to have a lackluster opening as traders await a decision from the ECB regarding monetary policy.
*The rally in Chinese shares lost momentum after a press briefing on the property market failed to announce significant stimulus measures. The CSI 300 in China reversed a rally of up to 1.3% after officials revealed plans to expand support for “white list” projects to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) from the previously deployed 2.23 trillion yuan.
*ECB Preview: with headline inflation below target and signs that services price inflation has peaked, the ECB’s focus has switched from inflation risks to growth concerns. The flurry of comments from ECB officials over the past week have pretty much confirmed that Lagarde will deliver another 25 bp cut on Thursday. We expect the ECB to cut again in December, although the central bank head may once again stop short of committing to another move just yet. Even if the ECB cuts rates by a further 50 bp this year, policy settings will remain restrictive and the “end-rate” of the current easing cycle is likely to be higher than markets expected initially and clearly above the low point of the last easing cycle. That will likely keep bonds volatile.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex climbed to 103.55, a third straight session over 103 and is up 3 handles from the 100.79 close on September 30. The rally broken the 200-day SMA.
*Oil dipped below the $70.00 per barrel. Energy prices have generally been influenced by oil market fluctuations, particularly as fears diminish over potential Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities, which could disrupt exports to China and other regions. Additionally, concerns about demand strength amid China’s economic slowdown have impacted oil prices.
*Bitcoin rallied with markets viewing the climb as a sign that markets anticipate a victory for pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.
*Gold rose to $2685 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 9th September 2024.

Market Update – How Aggressively Might the Fed Cut Interest Rates?

The August jobs data did not provide the clarity on the rate outlook that had been hoped and left the markets to their own devices. Concurrently, comments from Fed Governor Waller left the door open for an aggressive -50 bps cut after he said he favored front-loading policy action, but stressed only if appropriate.

Asia & European Sessions:

*European & US equity markets open in the green, following a recent selloff due to weaker-than-expected US jobs data. Wall Street plunged on Friday, as the NASDAQ collapsed -2.55%, with the S&P 500 and Dow down -1.73% and 1.01%, respectively.
*Asian markets followed the global downturn, with stocks in Taiwan, Australia, and Japan experiencing declines. Nikkei dropped for a 5th consecutive day.
*Asia’s benchmark index fell to a 3-week low. Chinese stocks are on the brink of falling to the 5-year low seen in February due to weak earnings and economic recovery. The CSI 300 Index has fallen over 13% since its peak in May, reflecting ineffective policy efforts to revive the economy. Market pessimism in China is fueled by deflationary pressures, weak consumer demand, and a prolonged property slump.
*Economic experts suggest that unless there is a significant policy shift, bearish sentiment may persist.
*Japan: Q2 GDP was revised down to a 0.7% pace, bouncing from the -0.6% contraction in Q1. It ties Q2 2023 for the fastest pace of growth since the 1.3% rate in Q1 2023. The deflator was revised up to a 3.2% y/y rate from 3.0% y/y.
*BOJ: The data leave the door open for another BOJ hike down the road, though we suspect policymakers will be sidelined at the upcoming meeting on September 20 to further assess conditions.
*China CPI edged up to a 0.6% y/y rate in August. It is a seventh month in positive territory after four straight months of deflation (from October through January). Nevertheless, price weakness continues to reflect the slack in demand and the very sluggish growth pace in the economy. And even more serious, PPI plunged to -1.8% y/y in August from -0.8% y/y, the biggest drop since April. And producer prices have been in deflation since September 2022.

While a September Fed rate cut is expected, uncertainty remains about the scale and frequency of future cuts.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDindex slumped to 100.58 before bouncing to a 101.187 close.
*The USDJPY lifted to 143.21. The Yen corrected, which helped to limit the slide in the Nikkei.
*The EURUSD and Cable are lower, at currently 1.1059 and 1.31 respectively.
*Oil drifted to $66.67 before recovering slightly to $68.20. Oil marked its lowest close since 2021 after a deep weekly loss pushed futures near levels regarded as oversold, with the focus on weather risks (Storm in Mexico) and reports this week that may clarify the demand outlook.
*Gold tumbling between $2485-2500.
*Iron ore prices fell below $90 per ton for the first time since 2022.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 24th September 2024.


Market Update – Risk-on Mood due to stimulus measures; Commodities climb.


Asia & European Sessions:


*More new highs were set on Wall Street today as the Fed’s jumbo rate cut continues to reverberate. Fedspeakers indicated more cuts are in the future.
*European stocks are poised for a positive open, following a rally in Asian markets driven by China’s latest economic stimulus efforts aimed at stabilizing its stock market.
*China’s plan to inject 800 billion yuan ($114 billion) in liquidity support for its stock market alongside measures allowing brokerages to access central bank funds to buy equities, boosted investors’ confidence. These moves are part of a broader stimulus package that includes cuts to short-term interest rates and reduced borrowing costs on up to $5.3 trillion in mortgages.
*While the market responded positively to these policies, analysts warn that the rally could be short-lived, as underlying issues like deflation remain unresolved.
*The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% for the 7th consecutive meeting, while leaving future policy options open.
*Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.5%, as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index marked its fourth consecutive daily gain. Hong Kong stocks surged over 4%.
*US Stock market remains positive, with the S&P rallying another 0.28% to 5719 while the Dow was up 0.15% to 42,125. This is the 40th new record this year on the former and the 30th for the latter. The NASDAQ rose 0.14% to 17,974.


Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex was up slightly to 100.898, but failed to hold the test of 101.229.
*Gold managed another fresh peak too, rising 0.18% to $2640 per ounce, supported by rising geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and expectations for further declines in interest rates.
USOil pr*ices recovered yesterday’s losses amid rising tensions in the Middle East after Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon.
*Μost Asian currencies strengthened against the US Dollar, with the Aussie rising against US dollar, i.e. AUDUSD falling to 0.6820, and the yield on 3-year bonds fluctuated.
*USDJPY retests 144.70 (top of falling triangle).


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th October 2024.


Global Markets Steady as China’s Economic Data Surprises, Gold Hits New Record.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


As the US economy continues to show resilience, traders further reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the remaining meetings of 2024. Strong US retail sales data for September exceeded forecasts, highlighting sustained consumer spending, which is powering economic growth.


Asia & European Sessions:


*A rally in risk and some unwinding of haven trades hit Treasuries.
*A stronger than expected September retail sales report weighed on Treasuries at it furthered expectations the FOMC will reduce rates at a more moderate pace into year end. And it added to prospects the Fed may only cut one more time this year with the November implied rate at -22 bps and the December contract at -41 bps.
*Asia equities rose earlier today as the central bank introduced new lending programs to boost corporate share buybacks and equity purchases. However Chinese equities edged down after official data showed slowing economic growth at 4.6% in the Q3 from 4.7% in Q2, underscoring investor uncertainty over government stimulus measures first announced in September.
*Netflix reported net income of $2.36 billion, roughly 6% above Wall Street predictions. Netflix saw a stronger-than-anticipated revenue boost in the latest quarter, alongside solid subscriber (5.1mln) growth, even with fewer blockbuster releases.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex climbed to 103.60,supported by widening rate and growth differentials. The downshift in expectations on Fed cuts, this week’s easing, albeit cautious, from the ECB, the chance for an aggressive -50 bp easing from the BoC, and the unwinding of BoJ rate hike outlooks have been supportive.
*The USDJPY broke to 150 level, the best since the end of July. It could rally further given the less dovish view on the Fed and if there are no signs of MoF intervention.
*The GBPUSD has stabilized and firmed slightly to 1.3060, but is largely recovering from the drop to 1.2990 which is the weakest since mid-August.
The EURUSD has slumped to 1.0807 and is the weakest since the end of July. Concurrently, USDCAD has risen to 1.3795, the highest since early August.
*Gold prices hit a record high, extending a long-running bullish trend as investors sought safe-haven assets. Gold spot prices rose to $2,713. The rise in gold prices, fueled by inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, has been consistent since late 2022.
*Bitcoin also saw gains, rising to $68,350, with some investors viewing it as a hedge similar to gold.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 10th September 2024.


Market Update – Markets prepare for US CPI & Harris-Trump high-stake debate.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Wall Street recovered slightly from Friday’s dip. Dip buying got the ball rolling and short covering has added to the bullish momentum.
*Expectations for a soft, rather than hard landing, with the FOMC expected to cut rates by only -25 bps rather than -50 bps have supported as well. The advent of the Treasury’s $119 bln in auctions, along with a heavy corporate calendar also weighed.
*Nvidia and Tesla have paced the strength in big tech. The Dow advanced 1.2%, with the S&P500 and NASDAQ climbing 1.16%. Strength was broadbased. Five of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains of better than 1%, led by consumer discretionary and IT.
*Sights are on today’s presidential debate and then CPI Wednesday.
*European stock markets are narrowly mixed in early trade, with the FTSE 100 underperforming, after a drop in the ILO unemployment rate. The overall labor market report was not as clear-cut, but the data will add to the arguments against back to back cuts and another move from the BoE this month.
*German HICP inflation was confirmed at 2.0% y/y. The data will add to the arguments in favor of a cautious cut from the ECB on Thursday.


Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDindex found its footing and rose to 101.68 from an overnight low of 101.14.
*The USDJPY lifted to 143.21. The Yen corrected, which helped to limit the slide in the Nikkei.
*Oil returned to $67.60 after Monday’s gain, driven by the return of a risk-on tone to wider markets.
*Gold edged up 0.36% to $2506.38 ahead of US Inflation tomorrow.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 03rd October 2024.


Dovish ECB Comments Send Euro Downward as Investors Eye US Jobs Data



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


*US employment data indicates a resilient employment sector ahead of tomorrow’s NFP data.
*Latvia’s governor, Mr Kazaks, says that officials have sufficient grounds to support further interest rate cuts at the October meeting
*Investors continue to predict a cautious 0.25% cut due to strong employment data.
*The US Dollar continues to be the week’s best performing currency due to a more hawkish approach and a lower risk appetite.


EURUSD – Investors Ditch the Euro For the US Dollar!


The market continues to drive the EURUSD lower due to expectations of the more competitive US market and monetary policy. In addition to this, investors are increasing exposure to the US Dollar due to a lower risk appetite while the Middle East conflict escalates. Yesterday’s Live Trading Session Click pointed out the sell indications between 1.10735 and 1.10684, of which now the price is trading 0.45% lower.





However, as the price is now extremely close to the previous support levels from September 3rd and 11th, Investors should be cautious of buyers re-entering the market at these levels. The support levels can be seen between 1.10256 and 1.10050. In order to break these levels, investors may require further drivers such as tomorrow’s US Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.


Analysts also expect the NFP Employment Change to add 144,000, very similar figures to the previous month. Though some economists now believe this data could beat expectations due to stronger employment data as NFP Friday approaches. Tomorrow’s employment data will trigger significantly higher volatility for the EURUSD.


The Institution For Supply Management (ISM) will publish their second PMI report of the week this afternoon. The Manufacturing PMI read lower than expectations, however, the market gave higher importance to the employment data. Yesterday’s ADP NFP Employment Change read 143,000 which is 19,000 more than the previous prediction. The higher ADP data was driven by leisure and entertainment (34K), construction (26K), and education and healthcare (24K). Today investors will turn their attention mainly to the US Services PMI as well as the Weekly Unemployment Claims.


Meanwhile, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos mentioned that short-term economic growth in the region could be slower than anticipated. However, he expects future recovery to gain momentum, driven by rising real household incomes and easing monetary policy. Latvia’s central bank governor, Martins Kazaks, added that officials have sufficient grounds to support further interest rate adjustments at the October meeting, citing slow wage growth, declining corporate profits, and weak economic recovery across much of Europe. The ECB’s dovish comments also continue to pressure the EURUSD.


Economists currently advise the European economy will not be able to see higher growth unless the ECB opts to cut interest rates to no more than 2%. For this reason, the Euro has been the worst performing currency of the past month only behind the Japanese Yen. Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut 0.25% in November and 0.25% in December.


The price movement of the exchange rate will largely be driven by the price movement of the US Dollar and US news. Therefore, the US Dollar Index will be key. If the ISM Services PMI and Weekly Unemployment Claims are lower than expectations, the EURUSD may be at a good level to retrace back upwards. This is due to the price being at a support level and having already fallen 1.65%. However, even with a retracement upwards, the EURUSD on the 2-Hour Chart remains below the trend-line and below the neutral level on most oscillators.


If the price remains below 1.10427, any short-term upward price movement will form nothing more than a retracement. As a result, medium-term buy signals potentially remain intact for the EURUSD.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 11th September 2024.

Market Update – Safe Havens in Demand; Eyes on CPI.

Investors remain cautious about the gloomy outlook for China’s economy & worry that the Fed has delayed easing monetary policy. Traders are anticipating at least 1 significant rate cut this year, ahead of the CPI report, which is expected to show modest inflation growth.

Asia & European Sessions:

*Asian equities dropped for a 3rd consecutive session, with Japan and Hong Kong leading the downturn.
*US stock futures slid overnight by 0.6%, as renewed fears of slowing growth in major economies coincided with oil prices stabilizing below $70 and global bond yields hitting a 2-year low.
*Harris-Trump’s debate over the state of the economy and US-China relations had an insignificant impact on the markets. Harris saw her odds of winning the election rise on PredictIt from 53% to 56% following the debate.
*BOJ policy member Junko Nakagawa hinted at the possibility of further interest rate hikes, boosting Yen to December’s highs. While many economists predict the BOJ will wait until later this year or early next year to raise rates, the next decision is scheduled for next week.
*The CHF is at decades highs against USD, supporting speculation for an aggressive interest rate cut on September 26. Markets expect a 25bps cut, while the likelihood of a 50 bps cut has been increasing.
*The UK economy unexpectedly stagnated in July. GDP has stagnated for two months now, suggesting that despite the robust survey numbers, Q3 GDP growth is likely to disappoint. With interest rates down and wage growth still robust, construction and consumption should get a boost, although this side of the budget there is still a lot of uncertainty that is likely to hold consumers and companies back. For the BoE it won’t be enough to prompt back to back cuts, but it will justify the controversial decision to lower rates last month.
*CPI preview: The August CPI report will be the highlight, just in case there are any surprises that could tip the policy outlook. We expect gains of 0.2% for both headline and core after 0.2% increases for both in July. As-expected results would see the y/y headline sliding to 2.6% from 2.9% in July. Also, the core y/y gain should hold steady at 3.2% in July. Such results should not deter the FOMC from cutting rates.

A higher inflation reading today could lead to increased volatility ,while a softer number might give the Fed more room to cut, but could also signal faster-than-expected economic slowdown.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The Yen surged to its strongest level against the US Dollar since December, recovering its yearly losses. It is currently at 141.40 after retesting the 140.696 level.
*The USDCHF drifted further to a 13 year bottom, with CHF and JPY buoyed by faltering carry trades funded through low-interest currencies and increased demand for safe-haven assets. EURCHF remains below its 2015 bottom.
*Bitcoin dipped to $56k again due to Trump’s support for the cryptocurrency sector.
*Oil extended the month’s downleg to 65.34, dropping by nearly 20% this quarter, as worries about slowing growth in the US and China dampen demand.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 04th October 2024.


Investors Increase Jobs Data Expectations As The Dollar Strengthens!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


*The US Dollar increases in value for a fourth consecutive day as the NFP release edges closer.
*US economic data continues to support a soft landing and gradual interest rate cuts.
*US ISM Services PMI beat expectations and rose to an 18-month high.
*Oil prices rise to a 30-day high as Israel confirms the IDF will retaliate against Iran’s latest strikes.


NZDUSD – Markets Expect The RBNZ To Cut, USD Depends On Jobs Data!


The NZDUSD continues to trade downwards for a third day and has done so while only forming one minor retracement. Traders now question how far the exchange rate can fall?





Price action is currently indicating that the market is attempting to drive the exchange rate lower as the Federal Reserve dials down its dovish tone. So far, the price potential looks on track to decline closer to the previous support levels. The closest support level can be seen at 0.61514 and then 0.61234. However, if it is able to do so will depend on the upcoming economic data, particularly this afternoon’s US employment data.


The market has raised their NFP Employment Change expectations to 150,000 for September. However, participants continue to predict no change for the Unemployment Rate. If the NFP rises above the expected figure while the Unemployment Rate remains the same or falls, the data would potentially support the USD further. In addition to this, the next Federal Reserve rate decision in November will most definitely be a 25-basis point cut. This would be key for the NZDUSD to continue its bearish trend back to the 0.61234 level.


On the other hand, investors also should note that the RBNZ will also confirm their rate decision on Wednesday 9th. Therefore, can the price action change as we approach the weekend and next week’s rate decision? This is something investors will need to monitor. Though, so far the worst performing currency of the week continues to be the New Zealand Dollar along with the Japanese Yen.


House prices in New Zealand fell for the seventh consecutive month, though at a slower rate, dropping by just 0.5% following a decrease in borrowing costs, according to economists at CoreLogic NZ. This trend highlights a reduction in purchasing power amid a slowing economy, as rising unemployment starts to impact household incomes. The outlook could shift if monetary authorities maintain their dovish approach at their upcoming meeting on October 9th. Notably, this stance has already helped bring the average two-year mortgage rate below 6.0%.


If the above data does prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates, the NZD could witness stronger pressure. The Official Cash Rate is currently at 5.25% and analysts expect the Central Bank to cut a further 0.50% to 4.75%.





When evaluating the price movement on the two hour timeframe, the NZDUSD is finding support at the same price but the resistance is not yet clear. This also indicates that sellers remain considerably active. The support level can be seen at 0.62066 and the price has crossed downwards which indicates a sell signal. Though some traders may wish for the support level to be broken before speculating downward price movement.


Furthermore, on the 5-Minute Chart the NZDUSD trades below the 200-bar SMA and on the 2-Hour Chart below the 75-bar EMA. This indicates the trend could potentially continue but traders will need to be cautious about volatility and timing.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

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