HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 21st August 2024.

Market News – Sentiment stabilize; EU stocks higher after mixed Asian session.

* Safe Havens were boosted by rate cut expectations for the FOMC, as well as the ECB and BoC, and after a dovish cut by the Riksbank. Adding to the strength in the rally are the weaker USD, debt concerns (especially for the US), portfolio hedging, haven demand, along with buying from the PBoC and other central banks.
* Geopolitical risks remain a significant factor too, though they were tempered slightly late yesterday after news Israel had agreed to a cease-fire proposal.
* US bond yields dropped to their lowest since August 5, driven by fears of a recession after weak jobs data earlier in the month.

Asian & European Open:

* European stock markets are slightly higher in early trade, after a mixed close across Asia.
* Chinese tech companies listed in Hong Kong were under pressure and the Hang Seng underperformed with a -0.8% loss.
* Sentiment seemed to stabilize at the start of the European session, and US futures are marginally higher as markets wait for Jackson Hole and signals from major central banks that rates will go down next month.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex fell to its lowest level this year against euro as traders prepared for key US payroll data revisions & Fed Powell’s upcoming speech. EURUSD rallied to 1.1132.
* The Sterling and the Yen showed mixed performance against the USD, with traders eyeing Japan’s parliament session and BOJ Governor Ueda’s upcoming testimony. GBPUSD spiked to 1.3050 and USDJPY bottomed to 144.92.
* SMBC economist Ryota Abe expects the US Dollar to weaken to 138 Yen by next year, with the Fed’s rate-cut pace being a critical factor.
* The Aussie hovered near a 1-month high, while the Kiwi touched its highest level since July before slightly retreating.
* USOil was steady close to its $72 floor.
* Gold continued to trade at about $2,500 close to its all-time high, fueled by expectations of impending Fed rate cuts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 22nd August 2024.

Market News – Eyes on Euro, Stock Markets in Green, But Cautioness Prevails Ahead of Fed & BoJ.

FOMC minutes showed that the Fed was on the verge of cutting rates at the July 31 meeting, and the report sets up a reduction in rates with the September 18 decision. Expectations were further reinforced by the BLS’s downward revisions to Nonfarm payrolls.

* Treasury yields tumbled on the payroll revision and were down further after the FOMC minutes, but closed off their lows in a bull flattening trade.
* Wall Street bounced back marginally, looking to start another win streak after the modest declines Tuesday prevented a ninth straight gain in the S&P500, which would have been the longest since 2004.
* European stock markets are slightly higher in early trade, after a largely stronger close across Asia. The Nikkei closed 0.7% higher, the Hang Seng bounced 1.2%, after yesterday’s correction. Gains in Europe are more modest, with DAX and FTSE 100 up 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.
* The NASDAQ rose 0.57%, with the SP500 up 0.42%, while the Dow was 0.13% higher.
* The VIX jumped 2.86% to 16.87.
* Eurozone Composite PMI unexpectedly bounced back in the preliminary reading for August. The Manufacturing PMI still declined to an 8-month low and Services index outperformed. Confidence levels have dropped to the lowest so far this year and are below the “series average.” So the improvement in the headline doesn’t necessarily signal a rebound in overall activity, and the numbers are unlikely to prevent the doves at the ECB from pushing for another rate cut in September.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has extended its declines, falling to 100.93. The buck has not closed with a 100 handle since April 2022.
* The Euro surged to a 1-year high against the US Dollar in August, driven by expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts. The euro-dollar pair sees around $2.29 trillion in daily turnover, making it a key vehicle for betting against the US economy. Money managers have been buying euros daily for the past two weeks, anticipating a Fed interest-rate cutting cycle.
* However, the US rates staying higher than European rates could restore the Dollar’s appeal.
* USOil prices slipped -1.7% to $71.92 per barrel.
* Gold was fractionally lower at $2512.01 per ounce after rising to a new record high of $2513.99 on Tuesday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 23rd August 2024.

Market News – The Big Day!

* Profit taking was seen ahead of Chair Powell’s comments today, weighing on Treasuries and Wall Street as some of the aggressive Fed rate cuts bets were trimmed further.
* US economic data showed mixed results, with growth relying more on the service sector as manufacturing slows. A better than expected S&P Global services print, a bounce in new home sales, and cautious comments from several Fed officials from Jackson Hole were the catalysts for the selloff.
* The Yen rose after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at potential interest rate hikes, reaffirming the BOJ’s stance if economic data aligns with forecasts. This follows concerns after the BOJ’s July rate hike caused a global equity selloff. Japanese inflation data exceeded expectations, supporting the Yen as well.
* Focus on Powell’s Speech: Traders are awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for clues on potential rate cuts. Some have been warning that the event risk is that Powell will be more cautious than markets are now expecting, which could weigh on the Euro and Sterling in particular.

Asia & European Sessions:

* Wall Street tumbled, with losses accelerating into the close. The NASDAQ finished with a -1.67% plunge, while the S&P500 was -0.89% lower, and the Dow was down -0.43%.
* Asian equities were mixed, with Chinese shares helping to erase earlier losses. Global stocks were volatile, with declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia, and the US.
* Alibaba’s Hong Kong listing upgrade was approved, which is expected to attract significant investment. However, Chinese tech stocks like NetEase, Baidu, and Bilibili fell due to weak earnings.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has extended its declines, falling to 100.93. The buck has not closed with a 100 handle since April 2022.
* EURUSD has inched down to 1.1130 after drifting to 1.1097, but is still near the highest level in a year. Sterling outperformed and Cable rallied to 1.3120 after strong PMI data. The USDJPY is trading at 145.27 (S1) after a broader correction in the Yen.
* USOil steadied between 72.58-72.94.
* Gold has inched down to $2470 per ounce and still holds below the $2500 level.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 26th August 2024.


Market News – FED: “The time has come for policy to adjust”.


This year’s Jackson Hole central banker symposium provided the opportunity for Fed Chair Powell to set the policy course for the FOMC, looking to join the other core central banks already in rate cutting mode. The markets got a big boost after he confirmed the FOMC will begin lowering rates on September 18.


The question on size could be answered by upcoming jobs numbers.


* Europe & UK: The ECB is also likely to reduce rates again next month, while the BoE’s Bailey sounded a more cautious tone. Like the ECB, the BoE seems more likely to stick to meetings with updated projections and detailed analysis, which would mean the BoE will sit out the next meeting and move again in November.
* Japan: Governor Ueda signaled the BoJ remains on its normalization course, but a hike as soon as September 20 seems unlikely.


Asia & European Sessions:


* Asian stock markets have shown mixed performance so far today, with the Hang Seng rising more than 1%, while Japanese markets corrected as the Yen rallied.
* Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1.1%, reaching 37,944.68. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 1.0% to 17,786.31. Shanghai Composite index slightly declined by 0.1% to 2,852.34. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7% to 8,076.10.
* European stock markets are mostly lower, with the DAX currently posting a loss of -0.2%. UK markets are closed for a holiday.
* The Dow climbed 1.1% to 41,175.08, surpassing the 41,000 mark for the first time since July.


Financial Markets Performance:


* The USDIndex saw a session low of 100.53 after plunging on Friday. It is currently trading at 100.41.
* EUR and Sterling have benefited from dovish Fed bets and the correction in the Dollar. The EURUSD pulled back from 1.1200 and is currently at 1.1177. The GBPUSD broke key resistance at 1.31 and is retesting 1.3200 currently.
* The Yen outperformed, and rallied against most currencies.t is currently settled at 143.43.
* USOil spiked to $75.28. Safe-haven buying due to increasing tensions in the Middle East, alongside bets on the Fed, contributed to market movements. Oil prices rose 0.7% as the region prepared for further conflict following an Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
* Gold recovered to $2524.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 12th September 2024.


Market Update – Eyes on ECB!


US inflation data supported bets for a rate cut from the Fed next week, but also argued for gradual moves.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Selling initially drove the moves on Wall Street and Treasuries as the pick up in the monthly US CPI core rate weighed on aggressive Fed rate cut bets, and basically confirmed a -25 bp reduction next week. However global equities turned around and dip buyers provided support with the major indexes bouncing off of support.
*European stock markets are broadly higher in catch up trade, after Wall Street turned optimistic yesterday and the tech rally extended through Asian hours. Japanese markets, which were hit by a rally in the yen earlier in the week, bounced back and the Nikkei closed 3.4% higher. DAX and FTSE100 are currently up 1.2% as markets wait for the ECB to deliver the widely expected 25 bp rate cut.
*Tech stocks like Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia drove Wall Street’s gains, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher.
*ECB Preview: Comments from officials have left little doubt that rates will be cut by 25 bp once again at tomorrow’s meeting. It is likely to be another “cautious cut”, however, that doesn’t commit to additional moves. Growth indicators may have come in lower than hoped, and headline inflation dropped sharply. Underlying inflation, though, remains high and that means Lagarde is likely to stick with a data-dependent approach. We expect further cuts, but for now only at meetings with updated staff projections. A 25 bp cut would leave the deposit rate at 3.50% and the main refinancing rate at 4.00%. However, the ECB announced earlier in the year that it intends to lower the spread between the deposit rate and the main refinancing rate to 15 bp from currently 25 bp. That will come into effect on September 18, together with the changes announced tomorrow. That will leave the main refinancing rate at 3.65%, the marginal lending rate at 3.90%.


Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex is at 101.796 and USDJPY has lifted to 142.66 amid a wider correction in the Yen.
*Oil rebounded 2.19% to $67.80 per barrel due to Hurricane Francine affecting Gulf of Mexico production.
*Gold dipped -0.15% to $2512.89 per ounce after rising to a session high of $2528.98 per ounce.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 07th October 2024.


Oil bets most Bullish in 2 Years, Stocks pared some gains.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


The September NFP report was a blowout by almost every measure. It quickly knocked out lingering fears of a recession this year or early next, but also knocked out expectations for another jumbo -50 bp rate cut this year. So, what’s the market signaling right now? ‘Goldilocks’ scenario?


Asia & European Sessions:


*Equity markets have moved broadly higher across Asia, and European markets are also finding buyers in early trade. Recent US data have boosted growth optimism, and Chinese officials seem more committed to growth boosting stimulus measures.
*Japanese stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Nikkei rising by 2.05%, driven by gains in the Mining, Chemical, Petroleum & Plastic, and Power sectors.
*European equities continue to benefit from a positive US jobs report. The DAX and FTSE 100 have already started to pare opening gains and the DAX is down -0.1%, while the FTSE 100 up a mere 0.04%.
*Data:German manufacturing orders plunged -3.8% m/m in August & U.K. house prices rose 0.3% m/m in September, according to the Halifax index. German data added to signs that the German economy will contract again this year.
*This Week: The inflation data are in view and will have a little more importance as the jobs report has extinguished fears of a recession and boosted the potential for a pick up in price pressures ahead. We expect gains of 0.1% and 0.2% for headline and core CPI for September (Thursday). Increases of 0.1% and 0.2% are projected for September PPI (Friday). Along with the data, there is a host of Fedspeakers through the week and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday). Supply is also on tap with the Treasury selling $119 bln in 3-, 10-, and 30-year maturities.
*Earnings season looms: JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report on Friday, with PepsiCo in the spotlight tomorrow and Delta Air Lines on Thursday.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex traded within Friday’s range so far today and is at 102.32.
*The USDJPY surged to test 149.00 immediately after the data before drifting down to 148.80. Still, this is the strongest since July and early August were the pair hit a multidecade peak at 161.69 on July 3. Currebntly is at 148.13
*According to Bloomberg, Oil futures posted their largest gain in more than a year last week. USOILhas lifted to $74.63 per barrel as markets watch developments in the Middle East. Gold meanwhile is at USD 2649.19 per ounce.





Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 23rd October 2024.


XAGUSD: Increased retail demand sends silver prices soaring



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Silver maintained its recent gains to around $34.8 per ounce on Tuesday, holding at its highest level in nearly 12 years as uncertainty surrounding the US election, Middle East tensions and bets on further monetary easing fuelled safe-haven demand for the precious metal.


Expectations of stronger industrial demand for silver, which is a key component used in solar panels, as the world shifts to cleaner energy, also boosted prices. In addition, top metals consumer China has recently introduced a series of stimulus measures to revive economic growth. Earlier this week, the People’s Bank of China cut its one- and five-year lending rates by 25 basis points to 3.1% and 3.6% respectively. On Friday, the PBOC also moved to support Chinese equity markets and announced that it may lower bank reserve requirements again before the year ends.


The main catalyst behind the recent rally has been rising retail demand for silver, which has become an attractive asset for investors seeking protection against ongoing changes in monetary policy.


As global central banks signal a shift towards a more accommodative stance, investors are increasingly looking at silver as a cost-effective hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. This trend is particularly evident in the context of silver’s price performance relative to gold.


While gold recently reached a record high of $2,748 per ounce, silver is still well below its all-time high of $49.78, reached in April 2011, indicating further appreciation potential. Investor sentiment has also been supported by recent developments in China, where authorities have imposed aggressive monetary measures aimed at revitalising the economy. These measures are expected to stimulate economic activity, which is likely to boost actual demand for silver and other industrial metals in the coming months.


Demand for gold and silver as a store of value was also strong, due to expectations that whoever wins the US presidential election next month, fiscal spending will rise and increase the budget deficit. Moreover, dovish comments from ECB President Lagarde on Tuesday were bullish for the precious metal, when she said the direction of interest rate movements in the Eurozone is clear.





From a technical perspective, XAGUSD has successfully broken the resistance line of the bullish pennant pattern, confirming the positive implications of this technical setup. The current bullish trajectory suggests that silver could reach the FE100% projection level of $36 from the $11.63 – $30.07 and $17.b54 drawdowns. The move above the 52-week EMA informs that the ongoing bullish trend might last even longer, as long as the $32.49 resistance that is now switching to function as support holds. Given the current dynamics, the outlook for silver is still bullish.


The possibility of a short-term correction, however, remains valid due to profit-taking.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Ady Phangestu
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 19th November 2024.


S&P 500 Earnings: Analysts Predict Walmart Will Outperform.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


*The Great British Pound retraces upwards breaking the Dollar’s seven-day winning streak.
*Meta stocks continue to fall after the European Commission imposes a fine of 797 million Euros due to unfair conditions.
*Susan Collins, the chairperson of the Federal Reserve of Boston, said that a 0.25% rate cut could be considered in December, but it depends on forthcoming economic data.
*The Federal Reserve indicates a rate cut would depend fully on November’s NFP and inflation rate.


GBPUSD – Lack of Confidence In The Great British Pound!


The GBPUSD ended the day 0.45% higher, mainly gaining momentum within the US trading session. According to technical analysts, the decline was largely due to a break in the US Dollar’s trend but also investors temporarily purchasing the significant dip in the exchange rate. However, in order for the bullish price movement to maintain its upward momentum it is important for the GBP to obtain support from a further price driver.





When looking at technical analysis, even with the upward price movement which rose to yesterday’s mentioned targets, the price continues to move in line with bearish trend theories. In order to break out of the pattern, the GBPUSD will need to push higher than the 1.27210 level. However, this would require Dollar weakness as well as investor confidence in the GBP returning. Investors’ confidence in the GBP has taken a dip since the UK Autumn Budget and fear of possible Trump US-UK tariffs. Technical indicators pointing towards a potential further rise are likely to arise if the GBPUSD increases above 1.26791.


Investors are scrutinizing recent US Federal Reserve comments, adding uncertainty to future actions. Before the election, experts expected continued rate cuts, but Donald Trump’s victory and plans for tax cuts and higher import duties have reduced this likelihood. According to analysts, a reduction in the Fed’s Fund Rate will primarily depend on November’s employment and inflation data. The Fed will particularly wish to see inflation fall in order to cut a further 0.25%. Yesterday, the CME Fed-Watch tool illustrated a 65% chance of a cut. Today the possibility of a cut has fallen to 58%.


Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated there’s no urgency to lower rates, while Boston Fed Chair Susan Collins suggested a possible December cut of 25 basis points, depending on data. In contrast, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee hinted at further reductions, totaling 125 basis points by 2025.


USA500 – Investors Expect Walmart to Beat Earnings Expectations!


The US stock market on Monday was a day of two halves and did not point towards a clear trend. Nonetheless, the downward price movement clearly lost momentum. The reason for the downward trend was primarily due to the higher inflation rate and lower possibility of another interest rate cut in December. However, certain news from individual companies also pressured the index.





Alphabet continues to come under pressure from the DOJ to sell Chrome in its search to crack down on Google’s monopoly. In addition to this, Meta came under pressure as the EU imposes another fine of 797M Euros.


However, investors are hoping the sentiment towards US companies and stocks will change with the release of Walmart’s quarterly earnings report this morning and NVIDIA’s tomorrow evening. Of the SNP’s 500 components, Walmart is the 21st most influential stock, while NVIDIA is the most influential holding a weight of 7.03%. If both reports are better than expectations, the SNP500 may outperform both the NASDAQ and Dow Jones.


Walmart has beat their earnings expectations over the past 3 quarters. Investors are expecting a slightly lower revenue and earnings per share this quarter. However, if higher than expected, the stock is likely to rise further. Investors are anticipating the earnings to beat expectations, hence why the stock is trading 1.61% higher during this morning’s pre-trading hours. So far this year, the stock has risen 59%.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 30th August 2024.


Market Volatility, Stock Market and Upcoming US Elections.


US Elections have been and are always expected to be extremely volatile events worldwide. Elections, similar to other political or banking sector events, are notably treated by market participants with anticipation and speculation.


As soon as Kamala Harris entered the Presidential race, replacing Joe Biden on the ticket, the stock markets began showing a noticeable preference for her. Market Watch reports[ that based on current stock market trends, Harris has a 64% chance of winning the election, a significant shift from the previously erratic market behavior.


This shift in the stock market is a positive indicator, suggesting that investors are placing their confidence in the Democrats and their potential economic policies. While the impact on the election outcome might be minimal, the fact that a significant portion of these investors are also voters means that careful analysis of market trends could provide insights into the current political climate as the 2024 US Presidential Election approaches.


Historically, it has been noticed that during election years, market participants shift their investments into money market funds instead of the safety of stock and bond funds, as they wait out the heightened uncertainty.


But will 2024 be the same? We cannot quite know yet but it’s been a unique one so far as we have seen an extreme money flow into equity market and commodity market in comparison with past election years, due to geopolitical risk, US political uncertainties which added to the instability, AI mania which boosted global stock markets, and the recession concerns which initially returned but currently are considered to have been overblown, as were aggressive Fed rate cut bets.


Are stock market investors rallying behind Kamala Harris? If we consider Market Watch’s analysis, Harris is indeed receiving substantial support from stock market investors across the US. This is reflected in the increased investments and the positive performance of certain stocks following her entry into the race after Biden’s unexpected withdrawal.


Can the stock market serve as a reliable political barometer? The stock markets can offer insights into voter sentiment and have historically been a strong political predictor.


In periods of uncertainty, the equity markets’ volatility and volume tend to spike again since they are considered to be attractive and more stable assets. If we focus on the medium term though it is expected that if current conditions sustain, market volatility will extend beyond Election days with any potential outcome, i.e. a Harris win and Democrat majority in Congress, a Harris win but split Congress, or a Trump victory with split Congress.


Meanwhile, a chart from Wells Fargo Investment Institute, shows the USA500 implied Volatility index along with USA500 index performance prior and post the Election Day based on the elections since 1988 with the 2008 recession year excluded. This chart interestingly suggests that typically the USA500 tends to ease/consolidate a bit a month prior to the elections despite an extremely high volatility, while USA500 price continues its upwards move after the election day even though volatility declines significantly.


However, it’s crucial to remember that market trends don’t always align with election outcomes. For instance, during the 2016 election, the stock market favored Hillary Clinton, but the final results told a different story.


Historically, the markets have shown a tendency to respond more favorably to Democratic candidates rather than Republicans, due to various factors. It remains to be seen if the stock market’s predictions for the 2024 US election will prove accurate.


Currently, market trends suggest a positive response towards Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who is gradually gaining traction in the polls. However, as fear of a potential recession is still in the background, the US stock markets are in a state of uncertainty.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 18th September 2024.


What Does Tonight’s Fed Rate Cut Mean For Gold and the Yen?


*The UK’s inflation remains at 2.2% as per previous expectations. The Pound remains slightly weaker on Wednesday.
*Gold retraces as traders increase the possibility of a 0.25% rate cut after yesterday’s Retail Sales.
*Gold positions break the previous annual record of 242.314K indicating the high demand. JP Morgan advises the largest risk to the global economy remains the tensions within the Middle-East and this can also impact Gold.
*US Retail Sales unexpectedly rose 0.1%, higher than the previous expectation of -0.2%.


XAUUSD – Gold Retraces As Economists Stick To Their 0.25% Rate Cut Prediction!


The price of Gold on Tuesday fell 0.50% moving back to the trend-line (75-Period EMA) and then retraced upwards overnight. However, the price is now actively declining as we approach the opening of the European Cash Open. Previously the price of Gold significantly rose due to the expectations of the Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates. However, the pricing changes depending on a 0.25% and 0.50% interest rate cut. According to experts, 0.25% could apply some short-term pressure on Gold unless the Fed also adds dovish comments for the upcoming months.


The reason why a 0.25% cut could potentially be negative is because investors have partially priced Gold based on a 0.50% cut, not 0.25%. Therefore, the price movement is largely dependent on tonight’s Federal Reserve rate decision and press conference. During the press conference, investors will be expecting guidance from the chairman, Mr Powell, regarding potential future rate cuts. According to Bloomberg, traders have significantly increased the likelihood of a 0.50% rate cut. However, Bloomberg surveyed 115 US economists, of which 104 advised the Fed would opt for 0.25%.


Leading trading platforms confirm the surge of new investors in gold. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, long positions in contracts have reached 246.214K, surpassing the previous annual record of 242.314K. Seller positions in this category remain low, totaling just 19.505K transactions. A similar trend is seen at the CME Group, where the average daily trading volume for gold contracts over the past week was 376.2K, far exceeding August’s average of 134.0K.


In terms of technical analysis, the medium-term picture remains neutral. This is due to the RSI trading at the neutral level, and the price trading above the trend-line and the 100-Period SMA, but retracing downwards. Therefore, the overall scenario remains neutral. However, if the price rises above $2,576.00, buy signals are likely to strengthen.


GBPJPY – UK Inflation Holds at 2.2%, Yen Struggles to Gain Momentum Outside Asia!


The price of the GBPJPY trades considerably lower on Wednesday due to the higher value of the Japanese Yen. So far the Japanese Yen is the day’s best performing index and was trading 0.32% higher against the currency market. However, technical analysts have noted that the Yen’s performance becomes poorer within the European session. As the European session edges closer the Japanese Yen Index has fallen 0.06%. The price movement of the Japanese Yen will largely depend on the Fed’s rate decision due to recent correlations.


The Great British Pound Index trades 0.06% lower but is slightly improving since the release of the latest UK inflation date. The UK’s inflation remains at 2.2% as per previous expectations. The Bank of England’s rate decision and press conference will take place tomorrow. Analysts advise the BoE is likely to keep interest rates at 5.00% which is positive for the British Pound.


According to Bloomberg, if the Fed opts to cut interest rates by 0.50%, the Bank of Japan may choose not to increase interest rates again this year. Economists added that the Bank of Japan would prefer for the Yen to gradually decline back to 135.00. Therefore, a 0.50% rate cut could turn negative for the GBPJPY, however, the price movement would need to confirm this.


The GBPJPY is trading at the 55.00 level on the RSI, above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. On the 5-Minute chart, the GBPJPY is also close to crossing above the 250-Period SMA. Therefore, most indicators are indicating upward price movement. Nonetheless, this will depend largely on the upcoming monetary policy developments.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

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