HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 09th October 2024.


Mag 7 surged, Oil dipped as China weighed on the demand outlook.



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It is a real mix in the markets amid a confluence of factors including positioning, Fed policy outlooks, growth and inflation outlooks, election uncertainties, and stimulus (or lack of) from China.


Asia & European Sessions:


*Wall Street climbed amid a surge in the Mag 7 stocks, paced by Nvidia (+4%). Stocks are recovering in general after the retreat to begin the month as unwinding of big rate cut bets and geopolitical angst weighed. Investor optimism has gotten a boost from signs of a solid labor market and economy, as well as from the stimulus from China.
*Goldman Sachs raised its outlook on the S&P500 to 6,000. The NASDAQ ended with a 1.45% advance, while the S&P500 was 0.97% higher, and the Dow was up 0.30%. The VIX fell -5.3% to 21.43.
*The US Justice Department announced on Tuesday that it may request a court order compelling Alphabet’s Google to sell off parts of its business, including its Chrome browser and Android operating system, which authorities argue are key tools in maintaining its illegal monopoly in the online search market (handles 90% of internet searches in the US, had established an unlawful monopoly).
*Nvidia surged 4% posting its 5th consecutive day of gains. Nvidia shares have risen nearly 14% in the past week and are up 190% over the past year. Several major investment firms, including KeyBanc, Citi, and Bernstein, reaffirmed their positive ratings on the stock. KeyBanc analysts also increased their 2025 sales forecast for Nvidia to $130.6 billion, driven by strong demand for its new Blackwell AI chips, which are expected to contribute $7 billion to fourth-quarter revenue. Wedbush analysts highlighted that the recent $6.6 billion funding round for OpenAI could spur further investment in AI startups, boosting Nvidia’s AI chip demand well into 2025.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex was little changed at 102.50.
*USOil slid -4.17% to $72.26 per barrel following the climb to a session peak of $78.46 Monday, in part as China failed to add to its stimulus binge. Oil is facing a tug-of-war between fundamentals indicating a surplus in 2025 and geopolitical tensions.
*Gold broke below the key $2620 per ounce from the record $2672.38 from late September amid expectations for a benign CPI report ahead along with the firmer dollar. Risk aversion has been keeping demand for the precious metal underpinned, even against the background of a pickup in yields and a stronger dollar. OTC sales have also helped to boost prices, while central bank demand has eased somewhat with the rise in prices. Recent data showed that China’s central bank refrained from purchasing gold for its reserves for a fifth consecutive month in September.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 25th October 2024.


UK Debt Set To Rise: How Will the GBP React?



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*The UK Chancellor looks to change Fiscal Policy in order to allow the UK to borrow 70 million GBP more.
*The IMF increases its forecast for the UK economy to recover this year from 0.7% to 1.1%. UK PMI data underachieved on Thursday.
*The NASDAQ increases 0.55% as Tesla’s latest earnings data increase shareholder sentiment.
*The US Dollar Index retraces after increasing in value for 4 consecutive weeks.


GBPUSD – UK To Change Fiscal Policy To Increase Debt Levels!


The GBPUSD exchange rate trades slightly lower during this morning’s asian session but looks to be regaining momentum. In addition to this, the GBPUSD continues to remain below most Moving Averages despite the upward price movement on Thursday. The downward price movement on Thursday was largely due to a decline in the US Dollar and not necessarily the Pound strengthening. For this week, the British Pound has fallen 0.65% against the currency market and traders will closely watch the Pound’s reaction to the UK’s Autumn budget.





The US Dollar is the best performing currency of the past 7 days and is the best performing of the day so far. The US Dollar continues to be supported by significant economic data. This includes the Weekly Unemployment Claims which fell to 227,000, New Home Sales rising to 738,000 and Flash PMI data reading slightly higher than previous expectations.


The Beige Book made public yesterday indicates that economic activity remained steady in September 2024. However, companies reported a modest uptick in hiring, a general easing of inflation pressures, and input costs rising faster than sales prices, which impacted business profitability. Lastly, the Federal Reserve continues to support the US Dollar as the market predicts a 0.25% rate cut.


The Bank of England on the other hand are likely to cut interest rates at the next meeting but it is not clear whether the BoE will cut 0.25% or 0.50%. Meanwhile, investors are watching the Autumn budget set for October 30th with a close eye. The UK Chancellor is looking to change Fiscal Policy in order to allow the UK to borrow 70 million GBP more. This could be a challenge and if global investors are not comfortable with the risk, this could pressure the Pound. This is something also previously seen under the Truss administration, but economists do not expect such a sharp nosedive. Lastly, yesterday’s UK PMI data for both the Services and Manufacturing sectors fell lower than the previous month and lower than current expectations.


However, if the price of the GBPUSD continues to decline, where does technical analysis point to a trigger point? As the price retraces back to the previous swing high, traders will look for the price to regain momentum before speculating a decline. The latest bullish swing measures 0.14%. Therefore if the price falls below 1.29618, investors will consider the momentum an opportunity. This will also push the price back below the 200-bar SMA on the 5-Minute Chart.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 15th August 2024.

Earnings and Inflation Boost the Dow Jones, Eyes Turn to Walmart’s Report!

* US inflation falls from 3.00% to 2.90% making a September rate cut certain.
* According to the CME Group, there is a 64% chance of the September rate cut being 25-basis points.
* Japanese GDP data confirms the economy grew 0.8% in the past quarter. The UK economy sees no growth in the latest month.
* Wednesday’s best performing index was the Dow Jones after Cisco Systems beat earnings and revenue expectations.

USA30 – The Dow Jones Is Wednesday’s Best Performing Index!

The Dow Jones is rarely the best performing index due to its exposure to more stable and less volatile stocks. The upward momentum is largely due to the earnings data from Cisco Systems and Caterpillar. Investors will now turn their attention to the last major quarterly earnings report for the week, Walmart.

80% of the Dow Jones’ stocks rose in value on Wednesday due to the significant rise in investor sentiment. Confidence in the stock market improved after the US inflation rate fell from 3% to 2.9% and the core inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.2%. The lower than previously expected inflation saw the market’s confidence rise and particularly support the Dow Jones.

The Dow Jones also saw momentum rise after Cisco made public their latest quarterly earnings report. Earnings per Share was 2.49% higher than Wall Street’s predictions and the revenue rose by almost $1 billion from the 1st to 2nd quarter. As a result, the stock rose by 5.75% after market close. The best performing stocks on Wednesday were American Express and Goldman Sachs. Investors will now turn their attention to Walmart which will release their earnings report before the market opens.

For Walmart, analysts predict the earnings per share to rise from $0.60 to $0.65 and for revenue to rise from $159 billion to $167 billion. The company has beat earnings expectations over the past 12 months due to investors looking to shop on a budget due to recent high inflation. On Wednesday, Walmart stocks rose 0.78% and a further 0.52% after market close. The rise and bullish momentum indicate investors believe the company will continue to perform well on their earnings reports. Walmart holds a weight of 1.12% and Cisco Systems 0.74%.

Dow Jones – Interest Rates and Upcoming Economic News.

After the lower inflation data for consumers and producers there is a 64% chance of the September rate cut being 25-basis points. According to many analysts the Federal Reserve will cut 0.75% by the end of 2024. However, some experts believe the Fed will cut a full 1.00%. This is also something which can be seen on the CME Group which indicates a 44% chance of a 1.00% cut by December.

Investors will now turn their attention to the US Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales and Weekly Unemployment Claims. Ideally shareholders would like to see the data slightly stronger than expectations, but not strong enough to suggest no rate cuts are needed. The Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philly Fed Index will also trigger volatility but to a lesser extent. The only concern for shareholders is a potential rise in tensions within the Middle East!

Currently the VIX trades with no major changes. As do Bond Yields, but a decline throughout the day would benefit the stock market.

Dow Jones – Technical Analysis!

Technical analysis indicates buyers are holding momentum. On the 2-Hour chart, price trades above the 75-Period EMA and the 100-Period EMA. The price also continues to trade above 70 on the RSI but is not indicating an overbought price. On the 5-Minute chart, the price continues to form bullish crossovers and trade above the VWAP. The price movement throughout as we approach the US session will depend largely on the global stock market performance and Walmart’s earnings report.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 29th August 2024.


Market News – Nvidia dropped after hours; Equities mixed; Dollar pared some losses.


Asia & European Sessions:


* Nvidia dropped about -7% in after hours trading in Frankfurt this morning, mirroring a fall in US after-hours trading which took Wall Street futures down with it. Though Nvidia’s guidance fell short of lofty expectations, the company’s revenue more than doubled to $30 billion in the fiscal second quarter, ending July 28. Additionally, Nvidia’s board approved $50 billion in new stock buybacks.
* Beats from Salesforce and CrowdStrike help contain losses. Nvidia reported solid results but the bar was so high that the data failed to top the most bullish estimates..
* The NASDAQ led the decline, dropping -1.77% before paring losses into the close to finish -1.12% lower. The S&P500 tumbled -1.1% before closing with a -0.6% loss. The Dow trimmed its -0.99% decline to -0.39%
* In Japan, a 2-year government bond auction attracted the highest bid-cover ratio since 2019, spurred by recent yield increases.
* In China, the downbeat earnings trend persisted. Shares of electric vehicle maker Li Auto Inc. plummeted by up to 15% after missing forecasts, while BYD Co. also declined despite posting a 33% profit increase. Contributing to the negative sentiment, UBS Group AG lowered its growth forecasts for China for this year and next, citing a more severe property market downturn than expected.


Financial Markets Performance:


* The USDindex has pared some of yesterday’s gains and is at 101.17.
* The New Zealand Dollar gained strength following a surge in the country’s business confidence to a decade-high.
* Oil prices steadied after a 2-day decline, with stock market losses balancing out a reduction in US inventories and supply disruptions in Libya.
* Gold traded just below its record high, poised for a monthly gain.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th September 2024.


US Market Awaits Fed: Will a 0.25% Cut Cause a Drop?


*European indices including the Euro Stoxx 50 and the DAX continue to trade higher.
*The European Central Bank’s latest cut continues to benefit European stocks.
*US Stocks “mixed” with the Dow Jones rising 0.55%, the SNP500 0.14% ending the day 0.47% lower.
*The Dow Jones was the best performing US index, largely driven upwards by the performance of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Visa stocks.


Dow Jones Leads, Outshining NASDAQ and S&P 500!


On Monday, 84% of the Dow Jones’ stocks rose in value with Intel, Cisco Systems and Travelers Cos being the best performing. The index also rose to its highest ever value, so far adding 10.36% this year. Why is the Dow Jones performing better than the NASDAQ and the SNP500?


The stock market in general is known to benefit from interest rate reductions which will take place tomorrow evening. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance of the Fed increasing 50 basis points, not 25. However, most economists believe the central bank will opt for 3 consecutive 25 basis point cuts for the rest of the year. For this reason, there is a risk of misjudging the Fed, the monetary policy and how to price the stock market. As a result, investors are turning to the Dow Jones which is exposed to fewer stocks, witnessing higher exposure to the banking sector and to defensive stocks such as Procter and Gamble. On Monday, Procter and Gamble rose 1.82%.


According to experts, if the Federal Reserve does adjust the Federal Fund Rate by 0.50%, all indices are likely to increase in value. Whereas, if the Fed cuts only 0.25%, investors will want to be exposed to a more balanced index such as the Dow Jones. Investors will want to be prepared and plan for volatility in both directions.


When monitoring the VIX and Bond Yields, certain signals are indicating some short-term weakness. The VIX is currently trading almost 1.00% higher and bond yields have added 0.005%. This does not necessarily indicate a decline but possibly some weakness before the upcoming interest rate decision. However, if the VIX declines and yields do not rise further, the Dow may again witness positive price movements.


Technical analysis currently signals that buyers are controlling the market with the Dow Jones trading above the trend-line, price sentiment line and above the VWAP. The 75-period EMA and 100-Period SMA have also crossed upwards on the 2-hour chart. The only concern for investors is that the price has risen for 4 consecutive days potentially triggering a more cautious view.


Lastly, the performance of the Dow Jones within the US session will depend on today’s Retail Sales release. The US Retail Sales is likely to decline 0.2% after rising 1.00% in the previous month. Analysts expect Core Retail Sales to read 0.2%. A higher Retail Sales figure is likely to support the stock market in the short-term.


DAX on the Rise: Can the Momentum Keep Going?


The German DAX has risen for 4 consecutive days as has the Dow Jones. However, the price has fallen as the EU Cash Open edges nearer (0.10%). The index is not trading at an all-time high but is trading at an area where the index has previously found resistance on two occasions.


The European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates more than what analysts were previously expecting supports the index. The monetary policy adjustment also stopped the downward trend seen so far this month. The question is now whether the DAX will continue to rise accordingly. According to economists, three factors will be necessary for continued growth; for both the ECB and Fed to continue cutting rates in 2024, positive EU data and positive earnings data.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 10th October 2024.


Stocks mixed after a largely higher close, Disagreement in Fed; Eyes on US Inflation.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


Asia & European Sessions:


*Treasuries sold off on the session with few buyers willing to step in to backstop the market ahead of CPI. Fading rate cut bets continued to weigh.
*FOMC minutes reflected a tough choice on the September 18 rate cut. There was considerable disagreement over the size of the move. A “substantial majority” favored the aggressive -50 bp action. “Some” preferred a quarter-point reduction although a “few” could have supported the smaller move. All, however, supported lowering rates at last month’s meeting as Governor Bowman dissented in favor of -25 bps.
*Wall Street caught a bid, helped by expectations for a tame CPI Thursday, with the Dow and S&P500 rallying to fresh record highs. The Dow climbed 1.03% to 42,512 and the S&P500 was up 0.7% to 5792. These are the 35th and the 44th record peaks of the year, respectively. The NASDAQ advanced 0.6%.
*Asia Session: Chinese stocks surged following the announcement of stimulus measures, as investors shifted their attention to upcoming data. Chinese investors will be looking ahead to the finance ministry press conference on Saturday for insights into fiscal stimulus plans.
*Japanese stocks present the highest weekly inflows in 6 months from foreign investors as the Yen weakened following dovish comments from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
*US CPI preview: CPI is expected to post modest gains in September of 0.1% overall and 0.2% excluding food and energy. As-expected September figures would result in the y/y headline slowing to 2.3% from 2.5% in August, and well below the 40-year high of 9.1% from June 2022. Over the rest of the year the y/y gauges will be restrained by hard comparisons that could see the potential for a slower pace of rate cuts, especially if the economy and labor market remain solid.





Financial Markets Performance:


*The USDIndex had a solid day, firming for a 6th straight session to 102.92, the highest since mid-August.
*Fading rate hike bets on the BoJ and diminishing rate cut hopes from the Fed saw USDJPY rally to 149.35, the highest since August 1.
*USOil rose after two days of decline, with UKOil trading close to $77 a barrel. The US crude stockpiles expanded the most since April, while the market remains tense over Israel’s potential retaliatory actions against Iran, as Iran has threatened to unleash thousands of missiles if necessary. President Joe Biden has advised against targeting Iranian oil infrastructure and spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday for the first time in over a month.
*Gold extended decline to $2605.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 7th November 2024.


Today’s Highlights & Analysis: Election, BoE & Fed Rate Decisions!



Trading Leveraged Products is risky


*The SNP500 saw its best post-election day in history. It rose 2.50% on Wednesday.
*Qualcomm beat earnings and revenue expectations adding to the bullish sentiment of the SNP500 and NASDAQ!
*The VIX drops to a 2-month low indicating a higher risk appetite but investors are monitoring higher bond yields which have risen to a 4-month high.
*The US Dollar Index retraces on Thursday morning after increasing to an 18-week high on Wednesday. Investors turn their attention to the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech this evening.


SNP500 – 2024 Is On Track To Be The Best Year Since 2019 For The SNP500!





The SNP500 continues to trade higher on Thursday as buyers maintain control and hold onto their positions. The SNP500 trades 0.14% higher during this morning’s Asian Session in addition to the 2.50% rise on Wednesday. The market is positively reacting to Trump’s Pro US stance and the fact that the Republicans are likely to hold the presidency, house and senate.


Economists have voiced concerns about a Trump presidency such as the Federal debt rising due to significant tax cuts to both business and citizens. Also in addition to this, tariffs and trade wars in China and Europe can significantly increase inflation. However, it is important to note that this is not what the market is currently pricing into the market. Investors will without doubt be scrutinizing comments from the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, and hoping for his opinion on the matter. Of course, these comments can create a ripple effect on the stock market.


Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% this evening and a further 0.25% in December. If the Chairman signals a different path, the stock market is likely to witness a higher level of volatility. If the Fed indicates a more hawkish stance there is a higher possibility the SNP500 can witness a large retracement downwards or a full correction back closer to $5800.


A positive indication for the SNP500 continues to be the VIX index which fell a further 0.90% this morning. The remarkably lower VIX index signals a higher risk appetite towards the stock market which increases demand. However, a potential problem is the bond market where yields have risen significantly. Higher bond yields trigger a higher cost of debt which can negatively influence consumer demand. This morning, the US 10-year bond yield fell 24 points which is another positive, but only if the yield continues to fall throughout the day.


Lastly, the quarterly earnings report from Qualcomm adds to the higher sentiment towards the SNP500. Qualcomm’s earnings per share beat expectations by 4.74% and revenue rose almost 900 million compared to the previous quarter. The stock rose more than 10.00% in the last 24-hours supporting the SNP500. Qualcomm’s stocks hold a weight of 0.38% and it is the 45th most influential stock from the SNP500’s 500 components.


Technical analysis continues to point towards a bullish trend due to strong momentum. However, on the 5-minute chart, the price is retracing slightly lower as we edge closer towards the European Cash Open. Therefore, ideally investors may wish for bullish momentum to be regained prior to speculating another buy trade. For example, if the price rises above $5,943.84.


EURUSD – The Euro Continues To Struggle But The USD Retraces On Thursday!


The Euro continues to witness a lack of demand and is again one of the weakest currencies of the day. The Euro index is currently trading 0.20% higher which is only better than the US Dollar Index and Swiss Franc. The best performing currencies of the day are the New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar.





Investors are hoping the Federal Reserve chairman will comment on potential tariffs, tax cuts, deportations of migrant workers and a lower oil price. If the Federal Reserve advises the regulator to be more cautious about taking into consideration interest rate cuts in the future due to the above, investors may increase exposure to the US Dollar. However, this can negatively impact the stock market and the value of bonds.


The US Dollar Index is declining on Thursday forming a retracement measuring almost 0.50%. Therefore, investors should note that the volatility is also coming from the USD, not solely the Euro. The decline is understandable considering the strong rise in the US Dollar post election, which saw the currency rise a whopping 2.00%. A key factor for the US Dollar will now be the Chairman’s comments in tonight’s press conference and the impending rate cut in December. Thereafter, investors will focus on the US inflation rate and what it would mean for the monetary policy.


From the European side, the main developments are the political tensions from Europe’s largest economy. Germany’s government has fallen into turmoil after Chancellor Olaf Scholz unexpectedly dismissed his finance minister. Christian Lindner was ousted from the three-party coalition in a high-level government meeting on Wednesday evening, following months of intense internal conflicts that have fueled the administration’s declining popularity. Experts believe Germany will also announce snap elections due to the political turmoil.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 16th August 2024.

Markets corrected again; Stocks skyrocketed.

Markets corrected again amid the back and forth on the Fed outlook and uncertainties over soft and hard landings that have besieged the outlooks since the jobs report. Global stocks have largely recovered from last week’s downturn, which had traders worried that the Fed might not cut rates quickly enough to prevent a recession.

* Asian stocks surged as investors returned to riskier assets, driven by increasing optimism that the US economy will sidestep a recession.
* September’s Fed rate cut was knocked out by the better than expected retail sales & jobless claims data and inflation. They are now anticipating less than a 30-basis point cut next month, with a total reduction of 92 basis points projected for the remainder of 2024.
* The RBA’s governor indicated that the central bank is still some distance from easing monetary policy.
* RBNZ governor Adrian Orr raised the distinct prospect of cutting rates another 50 basis points by year-end. NZDUSD rose to 0.6020.

Asian & European Open:

* Japanese stocks climbed, benefiting from a weaker Yen, which enhances exporters’ profits. The Nikke is set to end the week on a high, surging 2.9% to 37,800.42.
* Treasuries extended their losses, and the Yen is on track for its steepest weekly decline since May.
* The VIX fell further, dropping -6.49% to 15.14. It is well below the intraday spike to 65 on August 5 and is the lowest since July 23, even before the jobs report.
* Wall Street surged 2.34%, with the S&P500 advancing 1.61%, while the Dow climbed 1.39%. The rebound in US stocks from the heavy selling suggests that trend-following quant funds may soon reenter the market, potentially providing further support to equities.
* Walmart’s solid earnings report added to signs that the consumer is by no means dead, corresponding with the better news on retail sales. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. saw gains as optimism around tech stocks overshadowed concerns about its earnings. JD.com Inc. surged the most since March after exceeding net profit expectations in its earnings report released late Thursday.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex firmed to 103.024 after fading from the spike to 103.227. It was as low as 102.530.
* The Yen dropped 1.3% hovered around the 149 mark. This currency depreciation might even entice some hedge funds back into the carry trade that unraveled two weeks ago.
* GBP strengthened as GDP data confirmed robust growth through the second quarter of the year, which weighed on Gilts and saw yields moving higher.
* The AUD strengthened as job gains beat expectations.
* USOil climbed 1.3% to $77.99 per barrel on the improved growth outlook.
* Gold rallied 0.34% to $2456.24 after slumping to $2432 on the data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 19th August 2024.

Market News – Asian Stocks gain but US in red, Dollar plumMets; Yen the biggest gainer so far.

September Fed rate cut all but a done deal, look ahead to Jackson Hole

* Dovish Fed bets have also boosted hopes of additional easing in Europe, and bonds are falling as markets look ahead to the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is expected to provide new guidance on the direction of US monetary policy.
* The anticipation of lower borrowing costs is boosting investor confidence.
* The US Dollar crashed to its lowest in 5 months. Cooler heads have prevailed as the panicked fears of recession dissipated. The FOMC is widely seen on track for -25 bp rate cuts over the remaining three policy meetings this year.
* Goldman Sachs reduced the likelihood of a US recession within the next year from 25% to 20%, citing the recent retail sales and jobless claims data. If the upcoming August jobs report, due on September 6, shows positive results, “we would likely lower our recession probability further to 15%,” Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius noted in a report to clients on Saturday.

Asian & European Open:

* Asian stock markets traded largely higher overnight, however, European markets are narrowly mixed in early trade and US futures are in the red.
* The Hang Seng and tech stocks led the way overnight. The Nikkei underperformed and corrected -1.8%.
* The German 10-year rate is down -1.6 bp, the 10-year Gilt -2.3 bp and the US 10-year yield -1.3 bp.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has remained under pressure and hit a session low of 102.00, before picking up slightly.
* The Yen strengthened by 1% against the US Dollar, reaching 145.17 today. The yen’s rise is driven by overall USD weakness, anticipation of BOJ Governor Ueda’s parliamentary appearance on August 23, and Fed Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Markets are looking for signals from Ueda on the future direction of the BOJ’s interest rate policy. Political uncertainty is also influencing expectations, following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s announcement that he will not seek re-election as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in September. Some investors are still betting on potential BOJ interest-rate hikes and may be buying Yen ahead of speeches by the US and Japanese central bank leaders later this week.
* USOil prices have also continued to struggle as demand concerns dominate. The USOIL is currently below $75 per barrel as traders tracked US-led efforts to secure a cease-fire in the 10-month old Middle East conflict, while the Russia-Ukraine war is escalating.
* Gold rallied to an all-time high over $2500 per ounce,on hopes the Fed is edging closer to cutting rates.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 20th August 2024.

Market News – Its all about market sentiment.

* Wall Street continued its run higher as the panicked trade from early in the month continues to recede while outlooks on the Fed remain dovish heading into Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday.
* Asian stocks mostly rose on Tuesday, driven by positive momentum from Wall Street as it neared record highs.
* Chinese property developer Kaisa announced a restructuring agreement with creditors to avoid legal challenges over its 2021 default. The deal includes issuing $5 billion in new bonds and $4.8 billion in convertible bonds. (Kaisa, once the largest offshore borrower after Evergrande, faces a winding-up petition in Hong Kong, though the case has been repeatedly delayed.)
* The RBA indicated that it will likely maintain interest rates at their 12-year high for an “extended period” to ensure inflation returns to target by next year.
* In Europe, growing risks to economic growth have strengthened the argument for a policy shift at the ECB’s meeting next month. Markets are also watching the EU CPI release due later today.

Asian & European Open:

* Expectations for lower rates helped boost the NASDAQ by 1.39%. The S&P500 climbed to its 8th consecutive gain and its best run since November. It is just the 2nd close over 5600 as it sets its sights on the record 5667 from July 16. The Dow rose 0.58% to 40,896 as 41,198 is back in view.
* The Nikkei surged 2.1% to 38,156.41, recovering from a previous 1.8% drop.
Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex sank to 101.60, the weakest since early January.
* The Yen fluctuated against the US dollar, trading at the 147.33, rebounding from the 145-146 area.
* USOil prices decline to largest drop in 2 weeks, i.e. $72.76, as the US said Israel accepted a cease-fire proposal in Gaza, potentially easing supply risks as concerns about the global demand outlook mount.
* Bitcoin climbed to $60,974 while Gold continued to trade at about $2,500 close to its all-time high, fueled by expectations of impending Fed rate cuts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.