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[HFM]

Date: 2nd June 2025.


Market Recap: Volatility, Tariffs, and Trade Uncertainty Define May's End and June's Start.



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May Ends with Mixed Markets and Renewed Trade Tensions


Financial markets ended May on a choppy note, reflecting a volatile month filled with geopolitical tensions, shifting inflation expectations, and mounting speculation around central bank policy moves. As the dust settles, investors are turning their focus to June with caution, especially as trade disputes between the US and China intensify once again.


Tariff-related anxieties were reignited following President Donald Trump’s online remarks accusing China of ‘totally violating’ a recent trade agreement. Although the full details remain unclear, the statement prompted a wave of market jitters. While the immediate market panic seen earlier in May, following the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ levies has subsided somewhat, economic uncertainty remains high. The US administration’s unpredictable trade stance — punctuated by calls to double steel tariffs and reimpose levies on Chinese imports — continues to weigh on investor sentiment.


Trump’s Tariff Policy Back in Focus


Despite the tense geopolitical backdrop, US Treasury yields edged lower, bolstered by a cooling in core inflation expectations and signs of slowing consumer spending. The 2-year yield dropped by 4 basis points to 3.897%, while the 10-year yield slipped by 1.8 basis points to 4.400%. Both yields are approximately 25 basis points higher compared to the start of the month, reflecting the complex interplay between haven demand and shifting monetary policy expectations. The softer inflation data renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts later in the year, a narrative that has provided a partial tailwind for bond markets.


Wall Street closed the month with a strong performance overall, despite Friday’s subdued finish. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a modest gain of 0.13%, the S&P 500 dipped slightly, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by 0.32%. However, on a monthly basis, equity markets recorded impressive gains. The Nasdaq rallied 9.56%, marking its best month since November 2023, driven largely by strength in technology and artificial intelligence-related stocks. The S&P 500 rose 6.15%, its best May performance since 1990, while the Dow added 3.94%.


As June began, US stock futures pointed to a weaker open, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 futures all trading lower in early action. Investor caution is apparent, with market participants closely monitoring the evolving trade narrative and bracing for a new wave of economic data. The highlight of the week is the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, expected to offer critical insights into labour market strength and the broader health of the US economy.


Global Market Reaction: Asia Hit by Geopolitical Risks


Global markets also responded to the trade drama and geopolitical risks. In Asia, major indices fell sharply. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plunged more than 2%, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.6%, and South Korea’s Kospi declined by 0.4%. The renewed escalation between Beijing and Washington, coupled with concerns over China's manufacturing activity and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, amplified investor nervousness.


Commodity Markets React: Gold, Oil, and the Dollar


The foreign exchange market reflected the tension, with the US dollar experiencing fluctuations tied to trade developments. The dollar index (DXY) ended the month marginally higher at 99.441 but slipped early Monday as investors assessed the potential economic fallout from escalating tariff threats. The greenback weakened to 142.90 yen, while the euro edged up to $1.1420. Sterling and commodity-linked currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars also gained modestly.


Oil prices initially declined to $60.78 per barrel but later reversed course, rallying after OPEC+ announced a modest output increase starting in July. US crude rose to $62.39, and Brent climbed to $64.19.





Gold prices spiked to $3350 per ounce as some risk aversion returned, fiscal concerns and a weakening dollar continue to underpin the precious metal in the longer term. Analysts have noted that if tariff revenue falls short of expectations, the US may seek alternative fiscal measures, adding further pressure on the dollar and stoking demand for safe havens.


The political landscape also added to the market complexity. President Trump’s sweeping tariff and tax proposals, including the controversial Section 899, are under congressional review. If passed, the bill could significantly reshape the US fiscal framework and investor strategy, especially as it proposes taxing investors from countries with so-called ‘unfair foreign taxes.’ Some senators have already voiced concerns over the projected $3.8 trillion increase in federal debt, and revisions to the bill appear likely.


Meanwhile, company-specific developments also played a role in shaping market movements. Shares of Gap tumbled 20.2% after the retailer warned that new tariffs could cost up to $300 million annually. Nvidia, a key tech heavyweight, also fell 2.9% despite strong earnings, dragging the broader sector lower. On the positive side, Ulta Beauty surged 11.8% after beating expectations and raising guidance, while Costco climbed 3.1% on the back of solid quarterly results.


Looking Ahead: Jobs Report and June Uncertainty


In summary, May was a month of sharp swings and mixed signals across global financial markets. While equity indices posted strong gains, the broader outlook remains clouded by trade tensions, political risk, and questions about future Fed policy. As June began all eyes turned to key economic indicators and potential developments in US-China relations, which are likely to shape market sentiment in the weeks ahead.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 17th June 2025.


Global Markets Stabilise Despite Middle East Tensions, While Oil Supply Set to Outpace Demand.



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* Equity markets remain resilient despite geopolitical tensions.
* Oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but longer-term trends point to ample supply.
* Bond yields reflect diverging views between inflation fears and safe-haven demand.
* The IEA’s supply forecast reinforces a bearish tilt for oil if geopolitical risks are contained.
* Gold steadied as a hedge against growing uncertainty.


Risk appetite improved overnight, with Wall Street largely brushing off intensifying tensions between Israel and Iran. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, Israel has so far limited its retaliatory actions to nuclear and military facilities, sparing key oil infrastructure. This containment helped ease energy market fears, leading to a pullback in oil prices and renewed interest in equities.


The NASDAQ led the gains, climbing 1.52%, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.94% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75%. Meanwhile, market volatility dropped, with the VIX index falling 7.6% to 19.23.


However, US Treasury yields moved higher, pressured by investor concerns that a broader regional conflict could still emerge, potentially pushing oil prices and inflation higher. A solid 20-year bond auction failed to cap the rise in yields. The 10-year yield climbed 5.4 basis points to 4.45%, while the freshly auctioned 20-year yield ticked up 6 bps to 4.945%. The 2-year yield was up 2 bps to 3.966%, staying below the key 4.00% threshold.


The US Dollar index (DXY) edged higher to 98.09, rebounding from a session low of 97.685.


European & Asian Markets React Cautiously


In early Tuesday trade, European stocks opened lower, reflecting cautious sentiment after a mixed session in Asia. The Nikkei 225 closed 0.6% higher after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held interest rates steady and announced a tapering of bond purchases for the next fiscal year.


In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.6%, weighed down by Middle East tensions and fears that the US could be drawn into the conflict. European indices followed suit, with the DAX and FTSE 100 down 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. US stock futures were also in negative territory.


Bank of Japan Holds Rates, Tapers Bond Purchases


BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that interest rates could rise if Japan’s economic outlook improves, but warned of risks in both directions for inflation. The central bank confirmed it would reduce monthly bond purchases by JPY 400 billion until fiscal year-end and by JPY 200 billion per quarter thereafter. Ueda cautioned that cutting bond buying too rapidly could destabilize markets.





Gold Steadies as Traders Track Conflict and Trump Calls for Tehran Evacuation


Gold steadied today after earlier gains, driven by rising geopolitical tension and safe-haven demand. Bullion briefly surged by 0.5% to cross the $3,400 mark after former US President Donald Trump posted a call for the immediate evacuation of Tehran on social media, escalating investor anxiety over the Israel-Iran conflict. Hours before, Trump had urged Iran’s leadership to agree to a new nuclear deal, further fueling market uncertainty.


Last week, gold surged nearly 4% as Israel initiated military strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, triggering fears of a wider Middle East war. This compounded the upward momentum already driven by economic concerns stemming from aggressive US trade policies. Currently trading about $100 below its April record high, gold is on track for its sixth consecutive monthly gain—marking its strongest streak in more than two decades. Silver also advanced, while platinum was little changed and palladium edged lower.


IEA: Oil Supply to Outpace Demand Despite Geopolitical Risks


The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecasted that global oil supply will significantly exceed demand in 2025, easing concerns about the potential disruption caused by the Israel-Iran conflict.


In its annual report, the IEA projected oil production to rise by 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) to reach 104.9mn b/d, while demand is expected to increase by only 720,000 b/d to 103.8mn b/d. This imbalance is anticipated to lead to rising inventories throughout the year.


The supply growth will stem from both OPEC+, which is reversing previous cuts, and non-OPEC+ producers, expected to contribute an additional 1.4mn b/d in 2025.


‘In the absence of major disruptions, oil markets in 2025 appear well supplied,’ said the IEA.


Oil storage levels have already surged by an average of 1mn b/d since February, with a sharp rise of 93 million barrels in May alone. However, total inventories remain 90 million barrels below year-ago levels.


While the IEA acknowledged the geopolitical risks posed by the Israel-Iran conflict, it noted that Iranian oil flows have not been impacted so far. Although Iran temporarily suspended output at the South Pars gas field following an Israeli airstrike, the extent of production damage remains unclear. Other key sites, like the Shahran refinery near Tehran, were reportedly targeted without significant damage.


Long-Term Outlook: Supply to Outpace Demand Through 2030


In a separate report looking ahead to 2030, the IEA predicts global oil demand will plateau at 105.5mn b/d, rising just 2.5mn b/d from 2024 levels. Meanwhile, global production capacity is expected to expand by over 5mn b/d to 114.7mn b/d.


A key factor behind the demand slowdown is China, where oil consumption is now expected to peak by 2027, driven by surging electric vehicle (EV) adoption, the expansion of high-speed rail, and increased natural gas-powered trucking.


This is the first time the IEA has set a firm date for peak oil demand in China, aligning with recent projections from major Chinese oil firms.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 8th July 2025.


AUD Rallies as RBA Chooses a Surprise Rate Pause.



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The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its official cash rate at 3.85%, surprisingly avoiding another interest rate cut. Previously, analysts were expecting Australia’s central bank to again cut interest rates by a further 0.25% to 3.60%. As a result, the Australian Dollar is the day’s best-performing currency so far.


AUDUSD - RBA Keeps Rates Unchanged


The Australian Dollar rose in value due to the surprisingly hawkish central bank; however, traders tend to speculate a bullish currency against a poorly performing currency. By doing so, traders can avoid two conflicting currencies. The worst-performing currencies over the past 30 days are the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Therefore, the AUDUSD and AUDJPY are particularly interesting.


The AUDUSD rose up to 1.05% during this morning’s Asian Session and is forming its first bullish candlestick after 3 days of consecutive declines. The US Dollar continues to come under pressure from its trade policy. The latest developments are related to Japan and South Korea, which will see a 25% tariff imposed from August 1st. Japan has the 7th largest deficit with the US, and South Korea has the 8th largest.


Furthermore, investors had been shorting the US Dollar over the past 2 weeks over expectations of a dovish central bank. According to experts, the US President is likely to put in place a chairman, which is known for his dovish nature and is in line with the current ‘Trump-economics’, but this idea has come under pressure from the latest employment data. The latest employment data read significantly stronger than previous projections.


AUDJPY - JPY Struggles Due To US Tariffs


The Japanese Yen is one of the worst-performing currencies of the day, primarily due to President Trump confirming 25% tariffs on Japan. The AUDJPY rose to its highest level since February 21st.


Following May's surprisingly low inflation and a deceleration in first-quarter economic growth, forecasts for a rate cut became almost universal. In regards to the Reserve Bank of Australia, according to economists, the central bank is likely to pause rate cuts for 3-4 months before continuing to cut rates towards the end of the year.


According to the Governor of the RBA, the committee is looking to wait for confirmation that indeed inflation has fallen and will remain low before cutting rates. This confirms that the RBA is looking to cut, but the timing will depend on inflation over the next months. The country’s inflation rate is currently 2.4%. If the rate remains at this level for a further 2 months or falls even lower at the next release, a rate cut will become more likely.


In terms of technical analysis, the price of the AUDJPY is trading significantly higher than the main moving averages. This indicates the level of demand but also prompts caution as investors consider if the price is overbought in the short term. However, if the price declines back to the 95.291 support level, the AUDJPY will no longer be overbought. As a result, traders may take into consideration buying at the discounted price. The performance of the AUDJPY will also depend on tomorrow’s rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, as well as the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Meeting Minutes. If the RBNZ decide to cut as per current expectations, the AUD may find further support.


Key Takeaway Points:


* RBA surprisingly held interest rates at 3.85%, despite expectations for a cut, causing the AUD to strengthen significantly.
* The US Dollar (USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY) are under pressure due to renewed US trade tariff threats (25% on Japan/South Korea from August 1st) and expectations of dovish US monetary policy.
* AUDUSD and AUDJPY are favoured pairs as traders look to go long on the strong AUD against underperforming currencies. AUDJPY hit a high not seen since February 21st.
* The RBA needs further inflation confirmation before resuming rate cuts later this year, indicating a potential pause for 3-4 months.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date: 23rd July 2025.


Nikkei225 Surges on US-Japan Trade Deal: Can the Rally Hold?



Trading Leveraged products is Risky


President Trump confirms that US and Japanese negotiators have agreed on a trade deal that covers more than just the reciprocal trade tariffs imposed by the US. As a result, the NIKKEI225 increased 4.45%, the strongest bullish price movement since April 10th 2025. Can the NIKKEI225 maintain the current bullish momentum?


US-Japan Trade Deal


On July 22nd, President Trump informed journalists that the US and Japan have agreed on a trade deal after weeks of negotiations. Previously, the NIKKEI225’s price momentum was muted by fear of trade tariffs and trade clashes with the US. Over the past 2 weeks the White House advised they were aiming for 25% tariffs on Japan and other Asian countries.


Instead of 25% reciprocal tariffs on Japanese imports, the US will impose a 15% rate, which is significantly lower than the initial proposal. In return, there will be $550 billion worth of Japanese investments in the US, with 90% of the returns returning to American stakeholders. The two countries also confirm a joint venture on liquefied natural gas from Alaska. However, a negative factor for Japan continues to be the Steel and Aluminium tariffs, which will remain at 50%.


The deal provides much-needed relief for the Japanese economy and stocks. Particularly, the car industry. Toyota stocks are currently surging 14% during this morning’s session.


Can The NIKKEI225 Maintain Its Bullish Momentum?


The NIKKEI225 rose 4.45% forming a bullish breakout and increasing to its highest level since July 17th 2025. On smaller timeframes, such as the 15-minute chart, the RSI and other oscillators are indicating an overbought price. The price has also lost momentum since the opening of the EU session.


However, investors should note that an increase of 4.50% is not out of character for the NIKKEI225. The last time the index saw a similar increase was on April 10th, where the price rose more than 9.00%, almost double the current increase. Therefore, upward price movement remains possible despite overbought indications on smaller timeframes. However, it is vital for bullish momentum to be regained.


Traders should also note that the price is not at an all-time high despite the magnitude of the recent bullish price movement. The all-time high remains 2.70% higher than the current price. This level is a known resistance level, and traders should be cautious of its psychological edge over investors. Though a further increase is needed to reach this level.


Yen and BOJ Supports NIKKEI225 Growth


Other positive factors for the Nikkei 225 include a weaker yen and no rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. The yen has declined following upper house elections, where the ruling LDP–Komeito coalition failed to secure 50 of 124 seats, its second straight defeat after losing the lower house last fall.


While Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba remains in power, his minority government now depends on opposition support for economic action, which experts say will be challenging. Ishiba has stated he will stay in office until a US trade deal is finalised, which it now has been.


Lastly, the Bank of Japan has not raised interest rates in six months. This is despite earlier expert expectations that the policy rate would rise to 1.00%. The lack of interest rate hikes supports the NIKKEI225. However, technical analysts will be keen for the instrument to rise above 41240.50 in order for buy signals to return.



NIKKEI225 12-Hour Chart


Key Takeaway Levels:


* President Trump confirmed a trade deal with Japan, reducing proposed tariffs from 25% to 15%. This is sparking a 4.45% surge in the Nikkei 225, which rises to its highest level in 2025.
* Despite the strong breakout, technical indicators show overbought conditions on small timeframes. Buy signals remain for the medium-term.
* A declining yen and the Bank of Japan’s six-month pause on rate hikes continue to support the Nikkei 225.
* Toyota stocks increase by more than 14% and Japan’s car industry rebounds as a trade deal is agreed.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!


Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.