Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Trading strategy for Bitcoin on September 9th. Bitcoin is preparing to fall to $9500

Bitcoin – 4H.


On September 6, the BTC rate rebounded from the trend line, which passes through the peaks on June 26, July 10 and August 6-8. Thus, despite the exit from the downward channel a week ago, the most famous cryptocurrency remains within the "narrowing triangle", since the "support" trend line on the low of July 17, July 29 and August 29 supports the trend line. It is based on these two lines that I expect a decline to the lower trend line, that is, to the area of $9300 - $9400. There is also a sell signal-closing below the Fibo level of 61.8% ($10256). All this speaks in favor of a further drop in quotes "cue ball".

Perhaps the most interesting news last weekend was spent on the FBI, IRS and Immigration and Customs for about $90 million on deanonymizing senders and receivers of bitcoin transactions. This money was paid to start-ups that specialize in deanonymization. It is noteworthy that all such startups have collected about 107 million dollars of investment, which makes the US government services the main investors of startups to disclose the real names of participants in transactions in the bitcoin network. Also, many cryptocurrency exchanges are interested in deanonymizing payments, which must comply with the laws of countries, which often prohibit accounts and payments to the accounts of some other countries under sanctions. Thus, the US authorities continue to fight against illegal transactions carried out through bitcoin wallets, and for bitcoin itself, this is bad news. The main advantage over fiat money is the anonymity of payments. This is what makes the majority of Bitcoin owners who are not interested in making a profit due to exchange rate fluctuations, use the coin as a means of calculation. If the primary appeal of crypto-currencies will disappear, and demand for bitcoin significantly reduced.

Interesting news from the sphere of altcoins. According to the crypto statistics service Messari, only 3 out of 16 crowdsales conducted over the past 4 years have brought profit to their investors. In simpler terms, only 3 new out of 16 cryptocurrencies are now quoted as more expensive than the price at which the primary substitution was made on the market. Thus, 80% of new cryptocurrencies caused losses to their investors.

Also, Charles Randall, head of the Office of Financial Regulation and Supervision in England and Wales, reports that cryptocurrency financial crimes have reached unprecedented proportions and are comparable to the epidemic. Most often, individual investors are tricked. In the crime report for 2018-2019, a third of the crimes relate specifically to investments in cryptocurrencies. It is not surprising, given the cryptocurrency segment that has grown in recent years.

An even more interesting statement was made by Jerome Powell, the head of the US Federal Reserve. He said that the Federal Reserve is not going to launch its cryptocurrency. According to Fed research, cryptocurrencies issued by governments or central banks are not in demand among consumers. Powell also noted that cryptocurrencies are not an urgent problem for the United States and the world. He noted that if a single cryptocurrency will be created in America, it should be "cybersecurity", as it is one thing when counterfeit money is printed, and quite another – when it can steal or create any new money using a computer.

Bloomberg news agency reports that the inverse correlation between bitcoin and the Chinese yuan continues to increase. That is, the more the yuan becomes cheaper, the more bitcoin rises in price. The correlation index between the yuan and bitcoin recently reached 60%.


Overall results:
I believe that the most significant news for the BTC rate now is the interest in de-anonymization of bitcoin transactions by the FBI and the US Internal Revenue Service. This is what can make a significant portion of investors leave the cryptocurrency segment over time. It may be because of this news that Bitcoin is now declining.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin has completed the consolidation under the correction level of 61.8%. Therefore, I recommend selling cryptocurrency with targets of $9788 (76.4% of Fibonacci), $9566 (38.2% of Fibonacci) and $ 9400.

I do not recommend buying bitcoin now, as the cryptocurrency has remained in the downward channel.




Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
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