Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 20 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The leading cryptocurrency exchange Binance launches an open Blockchain project called "Venus" focused on the development of local stablecoins around the world.

In an announcement published on August 19, the stock exchange claims it is well prepared to launch such a monetary ecosystem in the light of its existing technology, Binance Chain, a wide user base and already established global compliance measures.

Stock market managers say they are seeking partnerships with governments, corporations, technology companies and other crypto and Blockchain projects to develop a new monetary ecosystem that will strengthen both developed and developing countries. According to the announcement, the goal of the project is to build a new open alliance and a sustainable community that will acquire partners who have an impact on a global scale.

Binance Chain has already launched several native asset-related stablecoins, including Bitcoin-related BTCB and BGBP-related Stablecoin. Binance says it will use its existing infrastructure and experience in various regulatory systems to standardize the compliance check system and build a multi-dimensional collaboration network for the Venus project.

The ambitious new Binance venture seems to compete directly with the plans of Facebook's social media giant, planning to launch a stablecoin linked to fiduciary currencies called Libra, which would power the global cryptographic payment network embedded in three wholly-owned applications: WhatsApp, Messenger, and Instagram.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has retraced 50% of the last wave down. The price tested the level of $10,840 and currently is still trading with high momentum. The bulls must move the prices higher towards the level of $11,027 in order to control the market. Any violation of this level will be a good signal of a possible further move higher towards the level of 61% retracement at $11,177 and then to technical resistance located at $11,855. The larger timeframe trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,461
WR2 - $12,432
WR1 - $11,161

Weekly Pivot - $10,133
WS1 - $9,200
WS2 - $8,268
WS3 - $7,027


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Double bottom formation confirmed
20 August 2019

Industry news:
The average crypto market sentiment measure, Sentscore, for the top 10 coins dropped further this Monday to 4.37, below last week's 4.76 and even below 4.43 from three weeks ago, according to Omenics, a crypto market sentiment analysis service. However, the sentiment improved sharply in the past 24 hours.


Daily view:

Based on the daily time-frame, I found successful rejection of the key support at the price of $9,185 (my Friday's target), which is good indication for more upside. Stochastic oscillator got fresh bull cross and this is just another confirmation for the further upside and potential test of $11,270.

4H time-frame view:


Based on the 4H time-frame, I found double bottom formation and strong reversal bar in the background, which is strong sign that upward momentum is present. MACD entered into positive territory.


Trading recommendation:
According to current market condition, my advice is to watch for buying opportunities on the pullbacks with the first target at $11,270.



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 19th. "The index of fear and greed" fell to the minimum values. Bitcoin deanonymization

Bitcoin – 4H.


Trading on cryptocurrency exchanges is carried out seven days a week, and at the moment, the quotes of the "cue ball" have closed above the correction level of 61.8% ($10,251). The fall of BTC ended this time around the Fibo level of 38.2% ($9,558) on the red Fibo grid. Thus, bitcoin has yet to avoid further fall and is held above $10,000 per coin. "Index of fear and greed" on August 19. This is not the lowest value, but it is still low. It reflects the mood of crypto traders, who are now more inclined to sell "cue ball", as they are more afraid of a further drop in the price of cryptocurrency than they expect to earn.

At the same time, many investment funds began to pay a premium to miners in the amount of 20% for the so-called "purity" of bitcoin. The "purity" of bitcoin means the number of transactions for each specific coin. The newly received bitcoin has no transactions yet, which means that it did not participate in any illegal operations. This attitude of the major funds for "purity" due to fears that US authorities will achieve in the long term deanonymization of bitcoin. The Bitcoin network stores information about absolutely all transactions of each coin. Thus, if the government authorities can find a way to decrypt and such an initiative is approved by law, the main trump card of the "cue ball" will sink into oblivion. Large funds understand this and want to be safe right now, since "dirty" BTC can be confiscated, no matter how wild it sounds now, or they will have less demand and price.

The second important trump card that Bitcoin has already lost is its innovativeness. At the time of take-off, up to $ 20,000, bitcoin was discussed by everyone, any citizen of any country wanted to buy it because the technology was new and promised huge profits in a relatively short time. Now, the excitement around the crypto segment is falling, which leads to a decrease in the number of transactions.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin closed above the Fibo level of 61.8% ($10,251). Thus, I recommend buying cryptocurrency with the target of $10642, with the stop-loss order below the level of 61.8%.

I recommend selling bitcoin with the target of $9,782, and with the stop-loss order above the level of $10,251, if the consolidation is performed under the correction level of 61.8%.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 19 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Australian Tax Office (ATO) has sent warning letters to investors who have placed most of their retirement savings in cryptocurrencies.

As part of ATO's efforts to alert against high-risk investment strategies related to pensions, 18,000 Self-Managed Superfund holders, a type of retirement account managed privately by individuals, have been punished with up to 4,200 Australian dollars for violations, local media reports.

While the letter was addressed to every SMSF holder who owned over 90 percent of his retirement savings in a single asset - mainly in real estate - ATO also identified cryptocurrencies as a high-risk investment.

For clarity, the agency warns not about the asset class itself, but about excessive exposure to any asset. The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) has expressed a similar view:

"Watch out for services offering the establishment of an SMSF for exposure to cryptocurrencies. Running an SMSF requires not only considerable time, skill and responsibility, but can also pose a risk to retirement savings."


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $172.72 and broken through the technical resistance at the level of $190.94. The bulls have managed to move the prices higher towards the level of $196.76, which is a technical resistance for the price. So far the bulls did not have the strength to break through this level, but if they will, then the next target is seen at the level of $215.63. The immediate technical support is now located at the level of $190.94.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $257.46
WR2 - $236.43
WR1 - $213.67

Weekly Pivot - $193.41
WS1 - $171.74
WS2 - $150.23
WS3 - $128.88


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 19 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Bakkt cryptocurrency exchange has announced the upcoming launch of its long-awaited platform for daily and monthly futures in the United States. After receiving approval from the necessary regulatory bodies, commissioning is scheduled for September 23.

Bakkt's physically delivered futures contracts have been the subject of expectations for many people. The company initially announced their premiere for August 2018, but then faced repeated delays related to compliance issues. Meeting the CFTC requirements has proved particularly difficult.

According to the announcement, Bakkt has hosted many events in New York and Chicago - cities of key importance for the US futures market. They also met with regulators from the CFTC, as well as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

To ensure its futures contracts, Bakkt will work with Intercontinental Exchange Futures U.S. and Intercontinental Exchange Clear US.

Institutional and fiduciary services are a growing market in the space of cryptography - the leading US stock exchange Coinbase announced the purchase of a Xapo institutional fiduciary operation last night. After the announcement, Coinbase's CEO, Brian Armstrong, commented on the significant increase in the number of institutional cryptographic clients, saying:

"Whether the institutions intended to accept the crypto or not was an open question about 12 months ago. I think it's safe to say that we know the answer. Every week we see 200-400 million dollars of new cryptographic deposits from institutional clients".


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has retrace way below the last Fibonacci level and made a local low at the level of $9.415 before any significant bounce took place. Currently to market is trading around the level of $10,166, which is important technical resistance for the price. The bulls must move the prices higher towards the level of $11,027 in order to contolr the marekt. Any violation of this level will be a good signal of a possible further move higher towards the level of $11,855. The larger timeframe trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,461
WR2 - $12,432
WR1 - $11,161

Weekly Pivot - $10,133
WS1 - $9,200
WS2 - $8,268
WS3 - $7,027


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 16 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Researchers at the University of Waterloo in Canada have used Blockchain technology to increase trust in electric vehicle charging systems, according to the scientific portal EurekAlert. This discovery can increase the use and extension of the overall charging infrastructure for electric vehicles.

Typically, an electric vehicle charging service provider will look for property owners to collaborate and install charging points. Electric vehicle owners can then use them for a fee, which is shared between the equipment supplier and the property owner.

The supplier operates the equipment, so the property owner must trust him that he will fairly compensate for the consumption of electricity. Similarly, the owner of an electronic vehicle must trust that he will not be charged an excessive service fee. The situation is aggravated by the fact that this is a very young industry with no established trust structure. The open Blockchain platform will allow all parties to access data and check if they have been changed.

Researchers established three steps to integrate Blockchain into the system to reduce dependence on trust.

The first is to identify the parties involved and possible trust issues. The second is to design a minimal Blockchain solution to alleviate these problems. Blockchain should closely mimic all parts of the older system that need to be replaced. Therefore, dependencies can still work with minimal modification.

Stage three is a gradual migration from the existing Blockchain hybrid/trust to a truly decentralized business model.


Technical Market Overview:
The bulls at the ETH/USD pair had been capped at the level of $189.91 after the rally was not that strong as they expected. The market has made a Shooting Star candlestick pattern at the end of the move up, so it was another clue regarding the strength of the bounce. The market is now going back down towards the level of $174.54 despite the clear bullish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator. The key technical support is located at the level of $148.27.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.14
WR2 - $256.36
WR1 - $233.10

Weekly Pivot - $214.72
WS1 - $193.28
WS2 - $173.99
WS3 - $150.66


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the bullish momentum.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 16 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The CEO of Bitwise Asset Management says he still believes that US regulators will approve cryptographic ETFs. Hunter Horsley spoke during a television interview with Bitwise research director Matt Hougan.

Bitwise submitted its last ETF application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January this year. This week, the regulator postponed the decision on the application - along with two other cryptographic ETF proposals - with the deadline for issuing the decision set for October 13.

Despite these changes, Horsley remained positive, noting that the SEC was relatively open to the reasons for this delay and presented the nature of its concerns.

Although Bitwise has made many attempts at various ETF applications, it has noticed that great progress has been made over the past twelve months. Horsley's perspective was repeated by Hougan, who summarized significant recent developments in the cryptographic sector, such as the entry of the trading company Susquehanna, improved arbitration and new spreads.

He also noted that cryptocurrency trust companies now have access to extensive insurance policies from Llyod's of London and that the market is maturing more widely. He claimed that a large part of SEC's concerns was resolved:

A key aspect of Bitcoin ETFs in the US is that they unlock the financial advisor market. Until now, crypto has focused mainly on retail or institutional investors. Half of the money in the United States is managed by financial advisers, and it is currently very difficult for them to gain access to this market.


Technical Market Overview:
The bounce at the BTC/USD market did not last long as the bulls have only managed to hit the level of $10 383. This level is just slightly above the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down, so the bounce was weak. The price has reversed again and now is heading back towards the technical support at the level of $9.415.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,583
WR2 - $12,879
WR1 - $12,118

Weekly Pivot - $11,389
WS1 - $10,550
WS2 - $9,816
WS3 - $9,007


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 15th. The collapse of bitcoin is caused by a massive outflow of one-day investors

Bitcoin – 4H.


Just yesterday, I wrote in my article about bitcoin that 80% of the price of the coin depends on the inflow or outflow of one-day investors, and not on fundamental factors, the actions of Donald Trump, the Fed, and the introduction of legislation relating to the cryptocurrency sphere. Today, we can state the fact: for about a week, bitcoin lost about $2,600 in value. This fact once again raises the question: how can bitcoin be used for the function of preserving value if it can lose about 20% of this value in a week? Therefore, I continue to hold the opinion that bitcoin is too overrated. Further, if you look at a large chart (for example, monthly), you can see that the first top of the "cue ball" was around $19500, the second – about $13500. I believe that there is a process of consolidation of the coin value of the most famous cryptocurrency. That is, there is a process of averaging the value, its reduction to market and fair. It is obvious that more or less of the average value of one coin is in the area of $7000 and $8000. However, "swings" can send BTC well below these levels. At the same time, I want to note once again that most of the "fantastic" forecasts (about the growth of bitcoin to $ 50,000 or even up to $ 250,000) have no basis, but are only the opinion of the author of the forecast, who is often a large investor and is interested in such forecasts, against which small investors want to earn, buy bitcoin and it shows growth. Thus, I believe that the current fall of the "cue ball" is not worth Trump's decision to postpone the introduction of duties on imports from China in the amount of 300 billion, there is no policy of easing the monetary policy of the Fed, the fall of the yuan and other fundamental factors. It's just that bitcoin is starting to lose popularity and fewer traders are considering it as a tool for quick and large earnings.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of July 17, 2019, and August 6, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin has completed the consolidation under the level of 76.4% ($9782). Thus, I recommend selling the cryptocurrency with the target of $9022, with the stop-loss order above the level of 76.4%. I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $9782, and with a stop-loss order at the level of $9022, if a rebound from the correction level of 100.0% is performed.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 15 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
An online survey by ING banking giant shows that Austrians are most skeptical of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general. A survey in which respondents from 15 countries show that the positive attitude towards Bitcoin is also weakening in other countries.

Austrians are generally conservative in terms of investment, but they are very skeptical about cryptocurrencies, and only 13% see digital currencies in a positive light.

Attitudes towards cryptocurrencies have deteriorated since last year's survey. This year, 17% of Austrians believe that cryptocurrency is the future of digital payments, compared to 20% last year. And now only 14% believe that this is a significant form of investment, unlike 17% last year.

Only 5% of Austrians would consider paying wages in Bitcoins. According to the study, Austrians know more than most nations about cryptocurrencies, but prefer to avoid risk and volatility as much as possible.

Of the 13 European nations (and Australia and the United States), most have seen a decline in their positive attitude towards crypto compared to last year. Turkey, Poland, and Romania were exceptions. 43% and 44% of respondents from Poland and Romania issued positive opinions about cryptocurrencies. In contrast, in Turkey, 62% are positive about crypto, and 36% will be happy to receive payment in Bitcoins.

However, Austrians see the value of Blockchain technology. Graz, an energy trading company, plans to use the DLT-based platform in the pursuit of zero-emission energy distribution.


Technical Market Overview:
The Elliott wave scenario at the ETH/USD pair has been updated as the last one had been invalidated due to the wave overlap. Currently, the top at the level of $238.68 is the wave XX high and the recent decline is the wave Z of the correction in progress. The target for the wave C might have been reached (1:1 market geometry principle), but if the momentum will keep strong, then the decline might deepen towards the level of $149.33. Please keep in mind, that there is a clear bullish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator at the daily time frame chart.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.14
WR2 - $256.36
WR1 - $233.10

Weekly Pivot - $214.72
WS1 - $193.28
WS2 - $173.99
WS3 - $150.66


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the bullish momentum.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 15 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Samsung's South Korean technology conglomerate has quietly added Bitcoin support to its decentralized app store, Blockchain Keystore.

According to updated information on the Samsung Developers site, Keystore now supports Bitcoin, as well as Klaytn, a cryptocurrency released by Korean Internet giant Cocoa.

As noted on the site, Samsung's Blockchain Keystore is supported by six of its devices - Galaxy S10e, S10, S10 +, S10 5G, Note10 and Note10 + - and in six jurisdictions: Canada, Germany, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, the United States and Great Britain.

Keystore was first released in July this year as part of the Blockchain package and the Samsung Decentralized Application (DApp) Software Development Kit (SDK) that provides account management as well as backup, payment and digital signature. It is noteworthy that at first Keystore only supported Ethereum Blockchain.

Earlier this month, Samsung expanded the SDK with two new services - DApp with digital analytics called "Jupiter" and a peer-to-peer wallet based on the QR code called "Mars" and integrated them with Galaxy S10 and newer versions of Samsung smartphones.

In parallel to Samsung, the Taiwanese consumer electronics giant HTC also introduced a smartphone with Blockchain technology, called "Exodus", which was introduced in autumn 2018.


Technical Market Overview:
The Bullish Flag pattern on the BTC/USD pair at the H4 timeframe has been invalidated as the price broken through the level of $10,000. The Bitcoin sell-off is accelerating and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $9,9231. Any violation of the level of $9,049 will invalidate the impulsive scenario. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $10,166.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,583
WR2 - $12,879
WR1 - $12,118

Weekly Pivot - $11,389
WS1 - $10,550
WS2 - $9,816
WS3 - $9,007


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019