Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. New momentum down and possible more downside
14 August 2019

Industry news:
Over the past years, many bodies have published data on massive wealth concentration in an otherwise decentralized Bitcoin network. Some of these reports have identified that less than five percent of all bitcoins addresses hold about 95 percent of all bitcoins. Research published in 2017 by How Much showed that 1 percent of those addresses had control over half of the bitcoin market.

Joining the ranks of those studies is TruStory, a platform for users to research and validate people's claims online. The startup's Founder and CEO Preethi Kasireddy on Tuesday shared new statistics about bitcoin's so-called wealth disparity problems. She noted that now 2 percent of addresses control 80 percent of the cryptocurrency's supply.


Daily analysis:

My first yesterday's target at the price of $10.620 has been reached. Anyway, there is a still chance for mode downside and potential test of my secondtarget at the price of $9.400. The downward started after the breakout of the 5-day balance in the background and the breakout is still active for at least few days.

Important levels to watch:

Yellow rectangle – Support $10.600

Yellow rectangle – Support 2 ($9.410)

Green middle of the Bollinger --Sell zone on the rally ($11.000-$11.150)


4H time-frame analysis:


Based on the 4H time-frame, I found new momentum down on the MACD oscillator, which is sign of the new money selling. Anyway, the stochastic oscillator is showing temporal oversold condition and that is why the best idea in my opinion is to wait for rally and sell after the potential bullish correction. Level around $11.000 seems like a good zone to sell.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 14th. The cost of bitcoin is 80% dependent on speculators

Bitcoin – 4H.


What kind of confidence is in the tool, which for no reason grows from $3,000 to $14,000 in a matter of months? That's right, nothing. Bitcoin remains a tool that is used to extract the largest possible profit in a minimum period, as well as a tool for illegal anonymous transactions. It is for this purpose that bitcoin exists, and after it, a huge number of other cryptocurrencies were created. The information that more investors are resorting to the function of preserving the value through the "cue" is true but is misinterpreted. Most likely, a certain part of investors is just waiting for bitcoin to take off again to $20,000 to earn on this again. When oil reached the range of $120 – 150 per barrel several times, most of the experts and analysts talked about the "bubble". They say that speculators inflated the price of energy carrier number 1 in the world, after which there were inevitable collapses. But here we are talking about energy, which is used by the whole world, which is used in any production and therefore has a value. Despite the emergence of alternative energy sources, it is not yet possible to replace oil completely with them. But without bitcoin, the world can safely live as it lived some 10 years ago. Cryptocurrency has no value. Therefore, almost any strong growth of the cryptocurrency is caused by the influx of one-day investors who listen to the forecasts of the guru of the cryptocurrency market or crypto-millionaires about the growth of bitcoin to $50,000 - $250,000, and promptly buy it, which leads to an increase in value. There are no fundamental reasons behind these takeoffs. Yesterday, bitcoin fell to $10,500 per coin and may continue to fall, as one-day investors began to leave the crypto market, as evidenced by the decline in trading volumes.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 10, 2019, and July 17, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin has completed the consolidation under the level of 38.2%. So I recommend selling cryptocurrency with the target of $9980 and $9558 with the stop-loss order above the level of 38.2%. I recommend buying bitcoin with a target of $11057, and with a stop-loss order under the level of $10585, if the closing is performed above the correction level of 38.2%.




Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 14 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The famous American boxer Mike Tyson leads a new entertainment platform powered by Blockchain for a new generation of players.

On August 13, VentureBeat announced that the new venture - called "Fight to Fame" - will use Blockchain technology to support a new, multi-faceted platform that aims to launch aspiring players to success via social media, reality TV, film, games, and live matches establishments.

While Tyson will be the founder and chairman of the Fight to Fame sports and competition committee, the project also counts Farzam Kamalabadi as his CEO, two-time Emmy Award winner Tim Smithe, and Stan Larimer as an expert on cryptocurrency and Blockchain.

"As an experienced player, I want to mentor future generations, especially future action stars, and ensure that there is a path to professional success and fair compensation. Building a global platform for them is my passion" - says Tyson.

To increase engagement and to benefit from the project for both competitors, fans and the company, the economy of fan tokens will be launched.

Kamalbadi and Smithe have noticed that for industry titans like the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), players often leave with only 15% after charging all fees.

More details about the planned ICO Fight to Fame will be provided in the future; tokens apparently grant plant and voting rights to holders and form part of the Blockchain-based economy transparent to the entire ecosystem.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the descending channel around the level of $208.50 and now is trying to continue the rally higher towards the level of $221.50, which is the technical resistance. The low was made at the level of $196.98 and it was labeled as wave (c) of the wave (2) of higher degree, which indicated, the market might be ready to continue the trend. In order to do this, the price action must be more impulsive and move towards the nearest technical resistance and break through it. Otherwise, the corrective move to the downside will evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern. So far there is no sign of bullish engagement in order to regain control of the market price and the move up is starting to look like a failure. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $205.77.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.14
WR2 - $256.36
WR1 - $233.10

Weekly Pivot - $214.72
WS1 - $193.28
WS2 - $173.99
WS3 - $150.66


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the bullish momentum.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 14 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
According to a report published today, the United Nations is investigating 35 cyberattacks by North Korea in 17 countries. This information follows the leaked summary of the report last week, stating that the country has hacked $ 2 billion to finance armament programs so far. Most of the incidents studied were carried out using one of the three main attack vectors.

South Korea is by far the favorite target, falling victim to the 10 attacks listed in the report, India is in second place - there were three attacks there. The incidents to be investigated took place in the countries of Africa, Central and South America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

Some of the most daring hacks concerned the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) system. In one case, the group recruited a Chilean interbank employee through LinkedIn. Another hack installed malware in an ATM system across the country, resulting in 10,000 fraudulent cash withdrawals in 20 countries.

Cryptocurrency exchanges and users are also popular target vectors. The South Korean Stock Exchange, Bithumb has been attacked at least four times. After the 2018 attack on the unnamed stock exchange, the stolen funds "were transferred through at least 5,000 separate transactions and forwarded to many countries before the final conversion."

The last method of raising funds is mining cryptocurrencies, often through crypto-jacking. This includes installing malware on the computer, which then uses system resources to mine cryptocurrency on behalf of the attacker. The UN has analyzed one part of malware designed for mining-oriented privacy Monero altcoin and sending influence to servers at Kim Il-Sung University in Pyongyang.


Technical Market Overview:
The local technical support at the level of $11,027 at the BTC/USD pair has been violated as the price made another lower low at the level of $10,413. This means the Bullish Flag pattern has been made just bigger as the wave (c) of the wave 2 is getting extended towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $10,277. Please notice, that the wave 2 might evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern, so patience is needed while keeping an eye on the wave development.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,583
WR2 - $12,879
WR1 - $12,118

Weekly Pivot - $11,389
WS1 - $10,550
WS2 - $9,816
WS3 - $9,007


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Down break of the 5-day consolidation
13 August 2019

Industry news:
Blockchain interoperability network ICON has announced a token giveaway in the run-up to its eagerly anticipated community elections. 3 million ICX tokens (about ~$600,000 USD) will be disbursed to members of the ICON community throughout the pre-voting period, which commences on August 26.

Daily view:


Based on the 4H time-frame, I found new momentum on the MACD and Stochastic oscillator, which is sign of the underlying bearish pressure. I also found failed test of the resistance at the price of $12.350, which is good confirmation of the weak buying.


Trading recommendation:
According to current condition, my advice is to watch for selling opportunities with the downward targets at the price of $10.620 and $9.40,



Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Forecast for Bitcoin and US dollar on August 13th. India is preparing for a complete ban on cryptocurrencies at the legislative level

Bitcoin – 4H.


As seen on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin performed a fall to the correction level of 23.6% ($11094) and a double retreat from it. As a result, on August 12, the new growth of bitcoin quotations in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% ($11544) began. From the main news of the last days, I would note the complete ban on the issue, turnover, and payments using cryptocurrencies, which is being prepared in the Indian Parliament. Previously, the Central Bank struggled with cryptocurrencies by prohibiting commercial banks from opening accounts for the use of cryptocurrencies and any individuals and legal entities that use them. Now, cryptocurrencies can be banned completely.

Meanwhile, debates continue among BTC analysts, experts, and investors about whether the US government can completely ban bitcoin? Opinions differ, as usual. Some experts believe that it was possible to ban bitcoin a few years ago when it was not so popular. Now, there is evidence that the "elite" are starting to use bitcoin, and cryptocurrency is also starting to be used as a means of preserving value, it is completely impossible to ban it. However, it is possible that the Fed will want to establish control over the cryptocurrency segment, and the Ministry of Finance is already taxing any transactions with bitcoin since it is considered an asset, not money. The second cornerstone issue, causing much controversy, is the future of BTC. Here, again, opinions differ. Starting from the forecasts that bitcoin will cost $250,000, ending with the fact that the cryptocurrency will go into the shadows. Although most of the forecasts predict "cue" further growth. It is also noted that the correlation of bitcoin with any of the currencies has recently weakened. First of all, it concerns the US dollar. This is due to the fact that bitcoin is increasingly becoming independent. Previously, there was a very strong correlation with the yuan and the dollar, now it is getting weaker every day. Moreover, some experts are beginning to call Bitcoin a more interesting investment tool than, for example, gold. They explain this by the fact that gold will continue to be mined, but the number of bitcoin coins is still limited.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of July 10, 2019, and July 17, 2019.


Forecast for Bitcoin and trading recommendations:
Bitcoin has made a return to the Fibo level of 50.0%. Thus, I recommend buying a cryptocurrency with the target of $11544 and $12142, with the stop-loss order under the level of 50.0%, since the rebound from the level of $11057 was performed. I recommend selling bitcoin with the target of $10585, and with the stop-loss order above the level of $11057, if the closure is performed under the correction level of 50.0%.



Performed by Samir Klishi
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 13 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The Indian telecommunications service provider Reliance Jio Infocomm Limited (known as Jio) has committed to building what it describes as one of the largest Blockchain networks in the world.

Speaking at the company's 42nd AGM on August 12, President and Managing Director Shri Mukesh D. Ambani said Blockchain technology is one of the three main areas of expansion for Jio. Since its debut in 2015, the company has become one of the main Indian mobile networks, with a current user base of over 330 million people.

"Over the next 12 months, Jio will install one of the largest Blockchain networks in the world in India, with tens of thousands of nodes operating from day one " - Ambani promised.

His comments came at a time when India is opposed to a plan to ban cryptocurrencies while supporting Blockchain technology at the state level.

External commentators have joined the angry local cryptographic industry amidst central bank warnings that interacting with unsanctioned tokens such as Bitcoin may be a criminal offense in the future

Meanwhile, Ambani focused on the role of Blockchain in strengthening the position of Indian consumers, without delving into the subject.

"Using Blockchain, we also have the opportunity to invent a completely new data privacy model in which Indian data, especially customer data, is owned and controlled by Indians rather than corporations, especially international corporations " - he said.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the descending channel around the level of $208.50 and now is trying to continue the rally higher towards the level of $221.50, which is the technical resistance. The low was made at the level of $196.98 and it was labeled as wave (c) of the wave (2) of higher degree, which indicated, the market might be ready to continue the trend. In order to do this, the price action must be more impulsive and move towards the nearest technical resistance and break through it. Otherwise, the corrective move to the downside will evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern. So far there is no sign of bullish engagement in order to regain control of the market price and the move up is starting to look like a failure. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $205.77.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.14
WR2 - $256.36
WR1 - $233.10

Weekly Pivot - $214.72
WS1 - $193.28
WS2 - $173.99
WS3 - $150.66


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the bullish momentum.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 13 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) claimed that its digital currency "can be said to be ready."

According to the deputy director of PBoC, Mu Changchuna, the prototype that adopts Blockchain architecture was successfully developed after five years of research. His statement, made at the China Finance 40 Forum, was announced by the local news service Shanghai Securities News.

He said digital currency emission using pure Blockchain architecture is difficult to achieve in a country as large as China because retailers require high-performance concurrency.

The digital currency will also adopt a two-tier operating system to satisfy a "complex economy with a vast territory and large population." In this system, PBoC will be at a higher level and commercial banks at a lower level. According to Mu, this will improve accessibility, increase adoption rates among the public, and promote innovation among commercial entities.

According to the director of PBoC, the digital currency is designed to be suitable for "small high-frequency retail business scenarios."

As reported by Cointelegraph, PBoC plans to overtake the US and Libra Facebook by releasing domestic cryptocurrency, while US politicians are holding back the development of social network stablecoin due to regulatory concerns.

Despite Mu's optimistic comments, it is not yet clear when exactly the Chinese digital currency will be issued.


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has been trading inside of the narrow range for some time now, consolidating the recent gains after the bounce from the level of $9,049. The local technical support located at the level of $11,027 has been tested during the consolidation cycle and the low of this test has been labeled as the low of the wave 2. It means the market is ready to continue the uptrend towards the new highs, but first, it will have to break out above the levels of $11,855, $12,008 and $12,269. Please notice, that the wave 2 might evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern, so patience is needed while keeping an eye on the wave development.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $13,583
WR2 - $12,879
WR1 - $12,118

Weekly Pivot - $11,389
WS1 - $10,550
WS2 - $9,816
WS3 - $9,007


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

BTC. Potential completion of ABC downward correction
12 August 2019

Industry news:
While Binance US, the American branch of major cryptocurrency exchange Binance, included four stablecoins among its 30 potential candidates to be listed on this upcoming platform, no Binance IEOs (initial exchange offerings) are on the list.

Hyped projects such as BitTorrent (47th by market capitalization), Fetch.AI (207), Celer (180) and Matic Network (127), that raised capital on the Binance Launchpad platform, have been left outside of the list alongside with many other coins, including Tron (13th by market capitalization).

(Meanwhile, competing major American exchange Coinbase is considering the addition of new assets, including Harmony and Matic, both of which offered tokens to the public via the Binance Launchpad.)



BTC has been trading lower in past 24 hours but it found support at the price of $11.200. There is potential for the completion of the ABC downward correction and my advice is to watch for buying opportunities.

Blue horizontal line: Support ($11.200)

Red lines – ABC legs

Yellow rectangle – Key resistance zone ($12.000-$12.250)

Stochastic oscillator is showing the oversold condition and the fresh flip up, which is sign that sellers got "too short" and that rally is possible. BTC did stop at the lower Bollinger band, which is another sign of the oversold condition.


Trading recommendation:
According to current market conditions, my advice is to watch for buying opportunities and go with the direction of the overall trend. Targets are seen at the price of $12.015 and $12.250.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 12 August 2019

Crypto Industry News:
Computer analysts at Zscaler ThreatLabZ, a cybersecurity company, have discovered a new type of Trojan attacking cryptocurrency users.

In a blog post, the company reveals that it has identified a new remote access Trojan (RAT) that is able to take over administrative control of the target computer, gain access to browser history and search for activities related to cryptocurrencies, credit cards, companies, social media, among other.

Malware is called Saefko and is written in .NET, a software framework developed by Microsoft and used to create a wide range of applications.

"RATs are usually downloaded as a result of the user opening an attachment to an email or downloading an application or game that has been infected with it. Because RAT provides administrative control, an intruder can do anything on the target computer, such as monitoring user behavior by logging keystrokes, accessing confidential information, activating the system's webcam, taking screenshots, formatting disks, and more "- explains the post.

Zscaler recommends that individuals do not download or open files from untrusted sources and states that network administrators should block unused ports, disable unused services, and monitor outbound traffic.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the descending channel around the level of $208.50 and now is trying to continue the rally higher towards the level of $221.50, which is the technical resistance. The low was made at the level of $196.98 and it was labeled as wave (c) of the wave (2) of higher degree, which indicated, the market might be ready to continue the trend. In order to do this, the price action must be more impulsive and move towards the nearest technical resistance and break through it. Otherwise, the corrective move to the downside will evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.14
WR2 - $256.36
WR1 - $233.10

Weekly Pivot - $214.72
WS1 - $193.28
WS2 - $173.99
WS3 - $150.66


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the bullish momentum.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019