Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 21 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The underground of the Internet, or darknet, is that part of the web that is beyond the reach of traditional browsers and search engines. There are tons of digital markets in this network where all kinds of illegal goods are traded and paid for with cryptocurrencies.

In a State of Crypto Crimes report released earlier this year, blockchain analyst Chainalysis investigated crimes committed using cryptography, among them darknet transactions, which were the most consistent. In 2019, revenues from online underground markets hit a new record of $ 790 million.

While indicators on all financial fronts for these markets are rising, one aspect that remains much more consistent is the choice of cryptocurrency.

"The most popular cryptocurrency used by the darknet is Bitcoin," said Kim Grauer, head of research, and Carles Lopez-Penalver, senior cybercrime analyst at Chainlysis.

Among the altcoins used are Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Monero. Even though only one of the three cryptos listed above has privacy features, the popular altcoins are widely used. However, some markets have seen exclusive use of Monero because of its encrypted web features, Chainalysis management said.

Altcoins are even more distant as operations grow in size and scale. According to Bitfury's Crystal Blockchain report, in the first quarter of 2020, darknet entities received more than $ 384 million in Bitcoin and more than $ 411 million was sent, where the recipients of these transactions are exchanges divided between those that have verification requirements and those that do not.

Unlike high-value Bitcoin transactions, Grauer and Lopez-Penalver added that altcoins are only used for smaller darknet transactions.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been trading around the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down that is located at the level of $9,157. The bears had pushed the price down from the local high made at the level of $9,201, but the price did not come back under the short-term trend line. The momentum remains neutral which indicates another sideways day. The next targets for bulls are seen at the levels of $9,209 and $9,261. The nearest technical support is located at $9,095.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,569
WR2 - $9,411
WR1 - $9,271

Weekly Pivot - $9,117
WS1 - $8,968
WS2 - $8,812
WS3 - $8,862


Trading Recommendations:
The volatility on Bitcoin has been subdued for more than two months now, so the larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 20 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Canadian regulator, the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC), accused the Coinsquare exchange of manipulating the market and misleading customers about the volume of trading.

OSC claims that Coinsquare, who was accused of "wash-trading" and hacking reports, "has engaged in conduct that goes against Ontario's security laws." The regulator also named its founders Virgile Rostand, CEO Cole Diamond and Compliance Director Felix Mazer as respondents. A meeting on this matter will be held on July 21.

In its complaint, the OSC said Diamond ordered Rostand to inflate it in March 2018. Then Rostand came up with a solution that allowed the stock exchange to start trading in the "wash" mode. "Wash-trading" refers to artificially inflating the volume of transactions by executing large market transactions on your own orders, so it appears that large transactions have taken place but no assets have changed hands. From July 17, 2018 to December 4, 2019, Coinsquare conducted approximately 840,000 transactions with a total value of approximately 590,000 BTC, OSC reported. They accounted for over 90% of the trading volume on the stock exchange.

Despite workers' concerns, Coinsquare continued its wash-trading business and thus manipulated the market and consumers, OSC said. The regulator asked for information on stock market activity, but Coinsquare did not report any irregularities and said it "is taking steps to prevent market manipulation and stressed that the controls it said could help detect such behavior." The OSC also said that Coinsquare was provided by an employee after expressing concerns about wash-trading.

Reddit users have become suspicious of Coinsquare's activity on two separate occasions. Vice also reported leaking documents that revealed diamonds were ordered.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has been testing the short-term trend line resistance around the level of $240. Any violation of this trend line will open the road towards the next technical resistance seen at the level of $244.66. It is worth to notice, that this trend line has been tested twice already and all bullish attempts had failed. If the history repeats again, then the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $235.42 and $230.02. The neutral momentum indicator doe not support neither bulls nor bears for the moment.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $258.07
WR2 - $250.97
WR1 - $242.31

Weekly Pivot - $235.59
WS1 - $227.18
WS2 - $291.82
WS3 - $211.48


Trading Recommendations:
The volatility on Ethereum is now lower than usual, so all the dynamic moves up and down might reverse quickly. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 20 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Abra's CEO and founder, Bill Barhydt, said he views Bitcoin as a means of custody, increasingly distancing himself from mainstream market price correlation.

"Today, Bitcoin is best suited for storing value, which over time will be increasingly correlated with traditional investment markets," said Barhydt.

After Bitcoin's beginnings in 2009, assets have followed a dizzying path of price increases, going from less than $ 1 all the way to nearly $ 20,000 at a high in 2017. With this price journey, different views and use cases have emerged for this resource, says PlanBm creator of the stock-to-flow model.When Bitcoin reached $ 1, the narrative focused on using the coin as a transaction currency. As its price has risen steadily over the past decade, assets have become the focus of attention as a possible asset retention option. The assets also made their fair share of gold, often referred to as "digital gold".

"Bitcoin's nickname as" digital gold "is the best analogy I have seen so far, said Barhydt, referring to an earlier statement.

Bitcoin theoretically has no direct links to the major financial markets as it is away from government control. However, the asset showed seemingly correlated activity with traditional markets in points, while at other times it travels on its own price path.

"Bitcoin is a fantastic insurance policy against traditional markets, while governments run amok irresponsibly pushing their economies into the ground. It is also the best showcase ever created for global decentralization" Barhydt added at the end.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been slowly moving higher towards the level of $9,148. The bulls have managed to break through this level and made a local high at the level of $9,201, but there was a Pin Bar candlestick formation made at the top of the move. It might indicate increased bearish activity around the level of $9,200, so traders should keep an eye on this level today. The momentum is now neutral, but the recent breakout through the trend line resistance might accelerate the rally towards the level of $9,240.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,569
WR2 - $9,411
WR1 - $9,271

Weekly Pivot - $9,117
WS1 - $8,968
WS2 - $8,812
WS3 - $8,862


Trading Recommendations:
The volatility on Bitcoin has been subdued for more than two months now, so the larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 17 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The upcoming meeting of the Futures Trading Commission in the United States or CFTC will host discussions on a number of topics, including Distributed Ledger Technology or DLT, digital assets and trading.

The Technology Advisory Committee, or TAC, the CFTC Technology Consultation Wing, plans to organize a remote meeting on July 16, discussing a number of topics for discussion, as noted in the recently disclosed agenda.

"At this meeting, TAC will listen to the presentation of the TAC subcommittees for Automated and Modern Trading Markets, DLT technology and market infrastructure, virtual currencies and cyber security," CFTC said in a statement.

The CFTC statement discussed the upcoming meeting. "The TAC meeting program includes key issues that will be discussed and speakers from each panel," stated the CFTC statement.

Established at the peak of the technology boom in 1999, TAC provides CFTC with advice and feedback on technology intersection, finance and regulation. The published program of the meeting includes panels on cybersecurity, guidelines on technological innovation in trade, DLT and handling of important data. The outline also includes a discussion about the digital currencies of the central bank or CBDC.

In addition, the program includes a section mentioning Bitcoin, entitled: "Analysis comparing Bitcoin volatility with other assets and the impact of COVID-19 on the correlation of asset prices."

The CFTC previously ruled Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities, placing them in the same category as gold, while other digital assets such as Ripple's XRP are still unofficially classified.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair made another lower low after the 61% Fibonacci retracement has been broken. The low was made at the level of $8,989 and currently bulls are trying to bounce. If this level is violated again, then the drop might accelerate towards the level of $8,860. The momentum is hovering below the neutral level and there is no sign of increased bullish activity. Only a sustained breakout through the trend line resistance might put the bulls back to control over the market again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,016
WR2 - $9,728
WR1 - $9,448

Weekly Pivot - $9,161
WS1 - $8,884
WS2 - $8,576
WS3 - $8,302


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 17 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Elon Musk Twitter account has been hijacked today following a series of attacks on accounts related to cryptocurrencies, including accounts of leading exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase and Gemini.

Musk's account pinned a tweet to his channel at 16:17 Eastern time, which suggested that the entrepreneur would double the amount of Bitcoins sent to the wallet address.

Musk has in the past discussed cryptocurrency on his Twitter channel, suggesting he owns 0.25 Bitcoin. It is known that scammers use this technique to cheat Bitcoin owners to send irreversible transactions to the digital wallet.

Bill Gates's account was also a target of attacks. While the attackers initially focused on crypto accounts, they expanded to technology leaders, including Jeff Bezos from Amazon, and then to celebrities such as Kanye West.

After ten minutes, the wallet address that was published on Musk's account already contained 3.64 Bitcoin, worth $ 34,498. Before Musk's account was hacked, the wallet received only 0.6527 Bitcoins after it was published on hacked accounts of many exchanges.

Many other accounts in the cryptocurrency space have also been hacked, including the largest exchanges in space. Binance and Coinbase have 2.2 million followers on Twitter, but Musk's account is much larger and has 36.9 million followers.

While the original tweet was soon removed, the new version reappeared within seconds, suggesting that the attack was underway.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has dropped below the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $232.04 and a new local low was made at the level of $229.02. This level will now act as a temporary support for the price. If the move down is continued, then the next targets for bears are seen at the level of $224.39. Please notice, the momentum starts to decrease as well which is in line with the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.89
WR2 - $261.89
WR1 - $250.42

Weekly Pivot - $236.01
WS1 - $225.12
WS2 - $210.17
WS3 - $199.13


Trading Recommendations:
On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 16,.2020 - Fake breakout of resistance and potential drop towards the $7.800 on the way

Technical analysis:


BTC has been trading downwards. As I expected, the market is trading lower and approaching the key support level at $8,900. I see potential for the bigger drop in case of the downside breakout towards the $7,800


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities in case of the downside breakout of support at $8,900.

Stochastic is showing fresh bear cross, which is another sign and confirmation for the downside rotation.

Bigger downside target is set at $7,800

Key resistance is set at $9,380




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 16 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Financial media reports that the Japanese government will include consideration of the digital currency of the central bank (CBDC) in its official economic plan. The message appeared 10 days after the announcement by the Bank of Japan that it would start experimenting with the digital yen to check its feasibility from a technical point of view.

According to Nikkei, consideration of CBDC will be included in the Honebuto plan for economic and fiscal revitalization. The Honebuto plan is the cornerstone of Japanese economic and fiscal policy, and the report says the Japanese government will "consider CBDC in coordination with other countries."

After China began testing its CBDC or digital Yuan, the Japanese government accelerated preparations for its own CBDC. In March, in an exclusive media interview, Kozo Yamamoto, a member of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the House of Representatives and a former official of the Ministry of Finance called on Japan to quickly implement the CBDC:

"If Japan does not emit a digital currency and people in the world use other digital currencies, the Japanese yen will be forgotten and lose its sovereignty."

The change of attitude was quick. In July 2019, the Bank of Japan maintained that "they did not have a CBDC emission plan". However, in a report from this month, he announced that he would start experimenting with the digital currency of the central bank. According to Nikkei, the Japanese government, not the Bank of Japan, has the final right to assess whether to issue CBDC.


Technical Market Outlook:
Despite the fact, that ETH/USD pair had bounced from the local low at $236.31, which was just above the local technical support located at $235.42, bulls still was not able to break through the trend line resistance again. The price has returned under the trend line and is currently hovering around the level of $237. If the drop is continued, then the next targets for bears are seen at the levels of $232.04 and $224.39. Please notice, the momentum starts to decrease as well which is in line with the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.89
WR2 - $261.89
WR1 - $250.42

Weekly Pivot - $236.01
WS1 - $225.12
WS2 - $210.17
WS3 - $199.13


Trading Recommendations:
On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

Attachment 3103



Attachment 3102
Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 16 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Mitsubishi UFJ or MUFGt financial group, the fifth largest bank in the world, reportedly plans to issue its own digital currency in the second half of 2020.

The digital currency project launched in 2015 was originally intended to operate in a Blockchain network and facilitate instant peer-to-peer transactions. After many delays, the initiative is to be implemented no later than in 2020.

Hironori Kamezawa, president and CEO of MUFG, announced on Monday new plans for the local news agency Mainichi Shimbun. As part of the upcoming premiere, MUFG plans to launch mobile retail payments based on digital currency in cooperation with its partner, the Recruit Group.

According to the report, Kamezawa said that almost 1 million member recruitment stores have already signed up for this collaboration. "We believe that everyone will be able to use it openly," noted the CEO, adding that in the future the MUFG token will also be available in stores that are not recruits.

The MUFG token was designed as a stablecoin based on 1: 1 Blockchain relative to the Japanese yen. About five years ago, the implementation of the MUFG token has been delayed several times since the project began. The bank reportedly tried to launch the token in both 2018 and 2019.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair gets closer to the key short-term support located at the level of $9,000 as it keeps trading below the short-term trend line resistance and below the local technical resistance located at $9,240. The past Pin Bar candlestick low was made at the level of $9,052, which is just below the 61% Fibonacci retractement located at $9,082. If violated again, then the key short-term support is violated and the drop might accelerate towards the level of $8,860. The momentum is still hovering around the neutral level, but there is no sign of increased bullish activity. Only a sustained breakout through the trend line resistance might put the bulls back to control over the market again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,016
WR2 - $9,728
WR1 - $9,448

Weekly Pivot - $9,161
WS1 - $8,884
WS2 - $8,576
WS3 - $8,302


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

Attachment 3101




Attachment 3102
Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 15,.2020 - Watch for potential downside break and drop towards $7.813

Technical analysis:


BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $9,300. There is potential for the bigger drop but the price would need to breakout the key support at $8,900 to confirm downside direction.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opporutnities in case of the downside breakout of support at $8,900.

Stochastic is showing fresh bear cross, which is another sign and confirmation for the downside rotation.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 15 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
According to his head, the UK central bank is considering the option of introducing a digital currency. Speaking at an online event, Bank of England President Andrew Bailey told a group of UK students that the bank is debating such a move, according to financial media. Bailey said ongoing investigations will concern the central bank digital currency (CBDC), which would affect 'payments and society'. Calling it a "very big problem," he expected CBDC to be a viable option in a few years, when the coronavirus crisis passed.

Bailey's comments appear at a time when more and more central banks around the world are working at different levels on the idea of introducing CBDC, either as a national digital currency for retailing, or for wholesale settlement and settlement between banks.

The Swedish Riksbank, the world's oldest central bank, recently analyzed CBDC profitability and achieved mixed results for central banking purposes, citing the significant change and costs associated with the transition to digital technology. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve also determined that CBDC could one day replace the role of commercial banks, but with the additional risk of potentially damaging money markets.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair keeps trading below the short-term trend line resistance and below the local technical resistance located at $9,240. The past Pin Bar candlestick low was made at the level of $9,052, which is below the 61% Fibonacci retractement located at $9,082. If violated again, then the drop might accelerate towards the level of $8,860. The momentum is still hovering around the neutral level, but there is no sign of increased bullish activity. Only a sustained breakout through the trend line resistance might put the bulls back to control over the market again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,016
WR2 - $9,728
WR1 - $9,448

Weekly Pivot - $9,161
WS1 - $8,884
WS2 - $8,576
WS3 - $8,302


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020