Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 15 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
PayPal has confirmed that it is developing opportunities in the area of cryptocurrencies, in accordance with a letter to the European Commission. The document was originally submitted on March 20 and was to respond to the European Commission's public consultation on building an EU framework for crypto-asset markets.

In the letter, the payment giant admitted that it "constantly monitors and assesses global changes in cryptographic space and Blockchain / DLT", emphasizing that it advocates a "harmonious" regulatory approach that would not threaten innovation.

In addition, PayPal referred to its relationship with cryptographic resources, noting that in 2019 he joined Libra Association to learn "more about the proposed use of Blockchain technology to provide financial services to non-banking populations around the world," but later resigned, because he started working on his own solutions in space:

"From the beginning of the project, PayPal has taken unilateral and tangible steps to further develop its capabilities in this area, and therefore - without questioning the value of the project - has decided not to participate in the Libra Association and further focus on the implementation of our current missions and business priorities for democratization access to financial services ".


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the local low at $236.31, which was just above the local technical support located at $235.42. The bulls was trying to break through the trend line resistance again, but the rally was short-lived and the market reversed. If the drop is continued, then the next targets for bears are seen at the levels of $232.04 and $224.39. Please notice, the momentum starts to decrease as well which is in line with the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.89
WR2 - $261.89
WR1 - $250.42

Weekly Pivot - $236.01
WS1 - $225.12
WS2 - $210.17
WS3 - $199.13


Trading Recommendations:
On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for Jully 14,.2020 - Breakout of the 3-day balance and symmetrical triangle in the background. Potential for the bigger drop towareds the $8.000

Technical Analysis:


Trading recommendation:
I found the breakout of the symmetrical triangle on the daily time-frame, which is very good sign for further downside movement.

Watch for selling opportunities with the targets at $8,150 and $7,450.





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 14 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have issued a joint fine on Abra, a crypto application that allows users to get synthetic exposure to traditional markets.

According to the SEC, Abra offered "swaps based on securities" to retail investors without proper registration, and "did not carry out these swaps on a registered national stock exchange."

Abra offered a kind of "centralized" synthetic asset in which users could obtain exposure to traditional securities, such as shares, by introducing Bitcoin and Litecoin as collateral. The system removed or added coins based on the up or down movements of the underlying securities.

As per SEC, this feature was introduced in February 2019 for all users, including the United States. Talks with SEC employees led Abrra to stop this function shortly thereafter. However, they introduced it again in May this year, this time preventing the participation of US residents.

It seems that this was not enough to avoid control. Despite moving some operations to the Philippines, Abra employees in California designed, marketed and secured contracts, and checked users who were admitted.

Daniel Michael, head of the SEC Enforcement Division Compound Financial Instruments Team, warned that companies cannot "evade federal securities laws" simply by contacting non-US retail investors "while operating key parts of their business in the United States."


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has reverses the recent rally after the breakout above the short-term trend line resistance turned out to be a false one. The bears took the control over the market again and pushed it close to the level of the local technical support located at $235.42. If the drop is continued, then the next targets for bears are seen at the levels of $232.04 and $224.39. Please notice, the momentum starts to decrease as well which is in line with the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.89
WR2 - $261.89
WR1 - $250.42

Weekly Pivot - $236.01
WS1 - $225.12
WS2 - $210.17
WS3 - $199.13


Trading Recommendations:
On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 14 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Singapore authorities today announced that their Blockchain payment project, Project Ubin, is complete and ready for commercial launch.

The Singapore monetary authorities (MAS) first launched the Ubin project in 2017, planning first to develop a digitized Singapore Dollar (SGD). The next steps included examining Blockchain and DLT technologies to build a system for clearing and settlement of payments and securities using digital SGD. In the final phase of the project, MAS cooperated with an investment company based in Singapore Temasek and the American investment bank JPMorgan.

MAS successfully completed the development of a payment network prototype in November 2019, since then the body tests the system for its ability to run smoothly with commercial Blockchain applications. According to the official MAS announcement, the payment network will provide an interface for "other Blockchain networks for seamless connection and integration".

Among other things, the system will allow for faster and cheaper cross-border payments in many currencies, exchange of foreign currencies and settlement of securities denominated in currencies. In addition to government-supported Blockchain projects, the private sector of Singapore is also flourishing thanks to Blockchain and cryptographic innovations. Over the past 12 months, Singapore has seen a 50% increase in the number of Blockchain companies nationwide.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has reversed back below the short-term trend line after the attempt to rally higher and is currently trading around the level of $9,145. This level is not that far away from the 61% Fibonacci retractement located at $9,082 and if violated, then the drop might accelerate towards the level of $8,860. The momentum is still hovering around the neutral level, but there is no sign of increased bullish activity. Only a sustained breakout through the trend line resistance might put the bulls back to control over the market again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,016
WR2 - $9,728
WR1 - $9,448

Weekly Pivot - $9,161
WS1 - $8,884
WS2 - $8,576
WS3 - $8,302


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for Jully 13,.2020 - Fake breakout of the trading range and potential for bigger drop towards the $7.800

Technical analysis:


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities on the BTC due to fake breakout of the trading range and the supply trendline in the background.

Downward targets are set at the price of $8,900 and $7,800.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 13 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
US secret services announced the creation of a Cybercrime Task Force (CFTF), while bringing their Electronic Crime Task Force and Financial Crime Task Force together into a single network. According to an official announcement, the secret services have been planning for two years to create a unified task force to fight cybercrime related to the financial sector and combat phenomena such as ransomware attacks, business email fraud or credit card theft.

CFTF appears in the context of the growing illegal market for stolen credit cards and bank data by darknet users. The Secret Service expressed concern about the role of cryptocurrencies behind them, the illegal online transactions behind them, because they have become "one of the main means by which criminals build their illegal profits."

Financial crime and cybercrime are two sides of the same coin. Digital browsing and Magecart attacks fuel darknet and space in the real world to payment fraud. This harms businesses and destroys confidence in the financial system. The combined FBI Cybercrime Task Force will allow better data sharing and a direct hit on the source of the problem.

The mission of the new CFTF aims to improve coordination and dissemination of best practices in all financially motivated cyber crime investigations. Secret Service said the US is facing a "growing threat" of transnational cybercrime, especially against the financial system.

A recent study by Digital Shadows revealed that over 15 billion credentials are circulating through darknet, a 300% increase since 2018. Available information includes network access credentials, banking login credentials, and even accounts from streaming services such as Netflix.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has been trading inside of a narrow zone during the weekend and no new local low has been made. The recent drop has retraced 50% for the last wave up, but the bears were too weak to push the prices lower. Bounce from the level of $235.13 has been completed at the level of $243.00 and this is the current trading range. The volatility is slowly increasing during the early Monday trade, so there is still a chance for bulls to continue the move higher and test the level of $248.20. The larger time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $274.89
WR2 - $261.89
WR1 - $250.42

Weekly Pivot - $236.01
WS1 - $225.12
WS2 - $210.17
WS3 - $199.13


Trading Recommendations:
On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 13 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Japan Virtual and Crypto Asset Exchange Association (JVCEA) - a self-regulatory organization for the cryptographic industry in Japan - recently published a March report on Japanese main cryptocurrency resources.

169.376 BTC is listed on the Japanese stock exchanges, over 11% more than in the previous month. XRP increased by 6.4% to XRP 3.2 billion. Ether increased by more than 5.7% to 1.14 million ETH.

In addition, the number of Bitcoins Cash, Monacoins, Litecoins and NEM also increased slightly in March. Bitcoin spot trading volume amounted to 617.3 billion yen (about 5.8 billion dollars), 11 times more than the trading volume of XRP, the second-largest cryptocurrency in the same month.

In March, Bitcoin fell by over 25%. He started the month with around $ 8,600, but on March 12, known as "Black Thursday," briefly fell below $ 5,000. Bitcoin ended the month close to $ 6,400.

The reason why Japanese investors have increased their cryptographic resources is not obvious.

It can be said that Japanese Bitcoin supporters did not hesitate to buy it again after the cryptocurrency market collapsed. There is also the possibility that Japanese investors were sending more cryptocurrencies to the stock exchanges for sale, as opposed to the recent withdrawal of Bitcoin from Coinbase.

Yuya Hasegawa, a market analyst at the FSA-licensed Bitbank cryptographic exchange, explained that usually price movement and cryptocurrency holding are "inversely correlated."

"At a time of price decline, we can say that users send crypto to the stock exchanges to profit or reduce losses. Another reason may be the Japanese premium on the BTC market compared to the market based on US dollars after March 12," he says.

Investors around the world have accumulated cryptocurrencies during a coronavirus pandemic. According to the British application for trading cryptocurrencies "Mode", investors from the Baby Boomers generation (born 1946-1964) and Generation-X (born 1965-1980) have increased their monthly investment in Bitcoins since the beginning of the pandemic.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from 61% Fibonacci retracement seen at the level of $9,082, but the bounce has been capped at the level of $9,290, which is the key short-term technical resistance. Since then the market has been trading in a narrow zone and no new high or low was made during the weekend. The momentum is still positive, so odds for another move upwards are high as long as the level of $9,082 is not clearly violated. The larger time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,016
WR2 - $9,728
WR1 - $9,448

Weekly Pivot - $9,161
WS1 - $8,884
WS2 - $8,576
WS3 - $8,302


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 10 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Speaking at the Unitize blockchain conference, Douglas Arner, director of the Asian Institute of International Financial Law at the University of Hong Kong, argued that interrelationships between various global economic systems would become "one of the biggest challenges - and one of the greatest opportunities" because more and more countries around the world , is involved in creating own CBDC projects.

According to Arner, the Chinese financial system already has some predisposition to cross-border adaptation of the fast approaching digital Yuan. The expert gave an example of SWAP transactions that have been introduced by China over the past few years in cooperation with dozens of countries around the world.

"If we think about the Chinese CBDC proposal at the moment, it is largely limited to operating in the context of physical and electronic boundaries. But you can imagine how in the context of these electronic boundaries, if the system integrates with, for example, SWAP transactions that are carried out in many different countries, this type of RMB electronic area can be extended externally. "

The United States, the EU and China will have the greatest impact

In addition, Arner listed three financial institutions that appear to have the biggest advantage in the struggling CBDC race. These include Fed Reserve, People's Bank of China and the European Central Bank, which he described as "the main central banks that issue currency"

"These are different animals than all others. What Canada, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Australia and Saudi Arabia can do is really interesting and nice, but the rest of the world potentially won't accept it in the context of large economic or financial transactions. "

Arnern stated that:

"There is definitely an element of potential geopolitics - not necessarily competition, but potential alternatives or even fragmentation in the future."

A few days ago, we wrote about the head of Visa - Cuyu Sheffield, who believes that the central bank's digital currencies, i.e.CBDC, may be one of the most important trends in the coming decade.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the Shooting Star candlestick pattern had been made at the level of $248.20, the ETH/USD pair has retraced 50% of the last wave up. The bulls are trying to bounce from the level of $235.13, but so far they can not break through the nearest technical resistance seen at the level of $238.68. Any extension to the downside will directly expose the level of $232.02 for a test and any violation of this level will likely confirm the short-term top on the Ethereum at the level of $248.20.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $241.60
WR2 - $236.80
WR1 - $229.63

Weekly Pivot - $225.04
WS1 - $218.03
WS2 - $213.12
WS3 - $205.61


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 10 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Paul Grewal, a former American judge in California and deputy general legal adviser on Facebook, joins the legal team of the Coinbase Stock Exchange.

In a published statement on the Coinbase blog, the crypto exchange said that Grewal would help "pave the way to the next stage of awareness and the adoption of cryptocurrencies." The new legal director will also lead the legal team while Coinbase cooperates with financial services regulators and develops and releases new products and services.

According to Coinbase, Grewal oversaw more than a thousand cases in five years of work as a judge and "played a significant role" in Apple v. Samsung and Oracle v. Google, two key legal technology issues.

Coinbase's announcement comes two months after his former general attorney, Brian P. Brooks, left the stock exchange after two years. He is currently the head of the US currency control office, an office in the Treasury Department.

It is unclear whether the decision to choose Grewal was influenced by a recent class action lawsuit against Plaid "data plumber" Coinbase, which was filed after Brooks's departure. The plaintiffs claim that Plaid has violated privacy and data protection by collecting and generating revenue from the financial transactions of millions of users.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has retraced 61% of the last wave up and is currently trading around the level of $9,082. The local high was made at the level of $9,430, but since then the momentum turned negative and the bears are now in control of the market. The local technical support is seen at the level of $9,143 has been violated already, so the next target for bears is seen at the level of $9,000. Only a sustained breakout below the level of $9,290 would put the bulls back into control over the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,487
WR2 - $9,346
WR1 - $9,113

Weekly Pivot - $8,999
WS1 - $8,779
WS2 - $8,645
WS3 - $8,425


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 09,.2020 - Breakout of multi-day balance to the upside. Watch for buying opportunities with the target at $9.600

Technical analysis:


BTC has been trading upwards at the price of $9,390. I see further upward movement due to the breakout of the trading range in the background.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential buying opportunities on the dips. The upward targets are set at the price of $9,600 and $9,670




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020