Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 09 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Bolivarian National Guard in Puerto Ordaz, Venezuela, seized 315 Bitcoin mining machines manufactured by Bitmain. The owners of mining platforms were told that they did not have the necessary permits to own and operate machinery. They were also not authorized to transport machines during the COVID-19 quarantine.

Under current regulations, Venezuelan citizens who are interested in mining operations related to cryptocurrencies must obtain appropriate permits from a government office called the National Crypto Surveillance Authority. Owners who do not obtain these permits face fines and seizure of equipment.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has retraced 61% of the last wave down and is currently trading around the level of $9,375. The local high was made at the level of $9,430 and it is a third consequtive higher high during the rally. The momentum remains strong and positive, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $9,530. The local technical support is seen at the level of $9,240 and $9,154. Only a sustained breakout below the level of $9,154 would put the bears back into control over the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,487
WR2 - $9,346
WR1 - $9,113

Weekly Pivot - $8,999
WS1 - $8,779
WS2 - $8,645
WS3 - $8,425


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 09 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Torus, a Singapore-based cryptographic key management platform, now allows users to send cryptocurrencies via social media platforms such as Twitter.

According to the latest Torus update, v1.7.2, users can now send tokens to any Twitter or GitHub account, even if the account has never used a Torus cryptographic wallet, the company said. Torus presented several transactions on Twitter, including 0.01 ETH transfers to major characters from the cryptocurrency space, such as co-founder Ethereum Vitalik Buterin, CEO Binance Changpeng Zhao and Elon Musk.

According to the announcement, the new update introduces six new login credentials for the Torus and DirectAuth wallet - a tool that allows users to manage application-specific private keys while storing them in a distributed Torus network. With the upgrade, users can now create a new Ethereum Blockchain wallet using any of their social identities, including Google, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Discord, AppleID, Github, LinkedIn, Twitter and Line.

The company has developed that logging to Torus using accounts such as Twitter is based on Auth0, a login service provider that integrates authentication and authorization for web, mobile and legacy applications. Auth0 acts as a proxy server that connects Torus accounts to a verifier such as Twitter or Apple.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the pull-back towards the level of $233.88, the ETH/USD pair has made another higher high at the level of $248.20, just below the supply zone located between the levels of $248.86 - $252.03. Please notice, there is another Pin Bar candle made at the top of the recent rally as well, together with more serious candlestick pattern of Shooting Star, so traders should expect as some kind of pull-back towards the levels of $235.42 and $232.20 (will now act as a local technical support for the price). The momentum is still strong and positive and supports the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $241.60
WR2 - $236.80
WR1 - $229.63

Weekly Pivot - $225.04
WS1 - $218.03
WS2 - $213.12
WS3 - $205.61


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin whales activated dormant accounts

Greetings crypto enthusiasts!

In this article, we will analyze the term "Bitcoin whale" and consider how it affects the emotional and material part of the market.

The term "Bitcoin whale" itself refers to an individual or legal entity, it has more than 10 thousand Bitcoins on its account, and its volume can affect the price rate. According to Bloomberg research, almost 60% of the total BTC volume is controlled by less than 1% of wallets.

Who are Bitcoin Whales? It's a mystery for us, but it's worth remembering that in the past you could buy pizza for 10,000 BTC, which the famous Laszlo Heinitz did in 2010. Thus, crypto enthusiasts in the construction of the Bitcoin system could put together a considerable part of the digital asset, which is now the foundation of the entire structure, where these very whales, which control the rate of the first cryptocurrency, are at the head.

Tracking whale transactions is carried out by monitoring BTC wallets, for example, Bitinfocharts provides a list of the 100 most impressive crypto accounts in terms of size. Without proper dexterity, you can get confused in the movement of capital, but programmed bots will come to the rescue, which can separate exchange accounts from whales. Such a bot can be easily found both on Telegram and on Twitter, which will greatly simplify the analysis.

Why is capital flow analyzed? The answer lies in the fact that whale wallets, which for a long time stood motionless in one place, with subsequent movement signal upcoming changes in the market itself. That is, the market, or rather the BTC rate can change the beat that followed earlier. At the same time, the flow of capital may mean the entry of institutional investors into the market.

One of the last manipulations with a large volume of BTC occurred not so long ago. On June 27, the bot recorded a span of 101,857 BTC ($ 943 million), the transaction was split into two previously unknown wallets. The bot recorded another operation on July 6, which span to 16,662 BTC ($ 154 million), and the transaction was also broken down at anonymous addresses.

This happens while Bitcoin has been standing in the side corridor of $ 8,500 / $ 10,000 for more than two months, which could theoretically signal an early cardinal change in market ticks.

Before moving on to thorough market analysis, we focus on the two whale transactions described above. So, a huge amount of capital was taxed with a minimum transfer fee of 101,857 BTC (commission $ 0.49), and 16,662 BTC (commission $ 0.73), which once again confirms how economical transfers are in the Bitcoin network compared to the traditional banking system.



Current development and prospects
As early as 70 days in a row, the quotes of the first cryptocurrency invariably follow in the range of $ 8,500 / $ 10,000, showing an average daily activity in the region of $ 400. Such activity signals a peculiar stage of accumulation, inside of which there are definitely large players who control this process. Based on the fact that no one can always stand in one place, such a protracted flat will soon lead to impulsive activity. Such a "boom" of activity can come at any moment in time, and we should be prepared for it. As we have previously identified levels of $ 8,300 / $ 10,500, in the area of which there are concentrated clusters of stop orders [StopLoss], touching them, an avalanche-like reaction can occur that will provoke a breakdown of the set boundaries.

Based on the above information, the best trading tactic will be to work on the basis of local operations, which will be set outside the range of $ 8,300 / $ 10,500 in the form of pending orders or with market entry with proper consolidation outside the specified coordinates.



The general background of the cryptocurrency market

Analyzing the total market capitalization of the crypto industry, you can see that the trading volumes following the BTC rate move in a conditional side channel, where the current hour Total market is $ 272 billion.



If we consider the volume chart in general terms, then it can be seen that the amplitude limits are $ 245 and $ 284 billion. The maximum of the current year is $ 307 billion, the subsequent resistance is in the region of the maximum of 2019 $ 362 billion. Regarding the support levels, here it is worth taking into account the numbers: $ 245 billion, $ 234 billion and $ 132 billion

The cryptocurrency market index of emotions (aka fear and euphoria) is 44 points. It is worth considering that the mood indicator is stably above the level of 40 points, which indicates the stabilization of the emotional background of the market. Abrupt changes in the index plan will occur at the moment when the BTC price breaks the main borders of $ 8,300 / $ 10,500.



Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), it can be seen that relative to four-hour and daily periods there is a variable buy and sell signal due to BTC price fluctuations within the flat formation of $ 8,500 / $ 10,000. A weekly period, as before, signals a buy due to the rapid recovery process.







Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 08 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Willie Breedt, a South African citizen accused of stealing up to $ 16.3 million from around 2,000 investors through his VaultAge Solutions program, was allegedly forced into bankruptcy by a local court. According to a recent media report, the whole situation was initiated on 3 July by Simon Dix - one of the largest VaultAge investors who entrusted Breedt with 7.5 million South African rand, or $ 440,000.

VaultAge Solutions was founded in 2018, promising weekly returns on customer deposits through mining and trading cryptocurrencies. Program investors allegedly received only 1% of the expected profits. Before hiding about two weeks ago, the VaultAge operator initiated an intimidation case. A group of bailiffs hired by angry investors tracked him down at a guest house at Silver Lakes Estate in Pretoria, which he had reserved under a false name. Previous reports suggested that CEO VaultAge fled the country to Mozambique in December 2019.

Shortly after the sequestration order was issued, the Directorate for Investigating Priority Crimes, South Africa, known as "Hawks," raided the guest house, confiscating a laptop and Ledger Nano wallet, which could potentially contain some of the missing funds. In addition, the South African reserve bank has appointed PwC to investigate VaultAge and all agents who may have carried out transactions on its behalf.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD has made the Bearish Engulfing pattern has been made at the top of the move up and the market reversed lower towards the level of $233.88. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the support seen at $232.20 or below. Please notice, there is another Pin Bar candle made at the top of the recent rally as well. The levels of $235.42 and $232.20 will now act as a local technical support for the price. On the other hand, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $243.71 and $248.86.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $241.60
WR2 - $236.80
WR1 - $229.63

Weekly Pivot - $225.04
WS1 - $218.03
WS2 - $213.12
WS3 - $205.61


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.





Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 08 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
For several weeks, Bitcoin miners have been holding more and more while the price is above $ 9,000. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining may become more difficult within a week.

It seems that at a time when more Bitcoin miners were turning on their machines, increasing hashrate or network computing power, they are also holding more newly generated coins. Their net inventory over the past five weeks has reached 344 BTC ($ 3.2 million). By comparison, almost three weeks ago, on June 16, the same "collection" was 27 Bitcoins.

Consequently, the five-week MRI fell from 99.56% to 94.88%. If this indicator is below 100%, miners keep more Bitcoins and increase their inventories, and above 100% means they spend more.

Meanwhile, it is estimated that the difficulty of Bitcoin mining, which is a measure showing how difficult it is to compete for mining prizes, will increase again in seven days during the next difficulty correction, according to the top Bitcoin BTC.com mining pool. If estimates become a reality, they will raise the rate by 6% to 16.74 T - a new record of all time.

The difficulty exceeded 16 T previously only twice: 16.10 T in May and 16.55 T in March this year. This would not only be a new record, but would bring it closer to the never before reached 17 T. However, these estimates are likely to change as the adjustment date approaches. Bitcoin mining difficulty is adjusted every two weeks (more specifically every 2016 blocks) to maintain a normal 10-minute blocking time.


Technical Market Outlook:
After the BTC/USD pair has retraced over 50% of the last wave down and made a local high at the level of $9,329 the momentum has decreased and Bitcoin has stuck in a narrow range. Only a sustained breakout above the $9,400 would put the bulls back in control over the market again. This level is very close to the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $9,375, so breakout will require a lot of momentum, which for now is strong and positive. The local technical support is seen at the level of $9,240 and $9,154.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,487
WR2 - $9,346
WR1 - $9,113

Weekly Pivot - $8,999
WS1 - $8,779
WS2 - $8,645
WS3 - $8,425


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for July 07,.2020 - Descending triangle in creation, potential bigger drop incoming towards the $7.800

Technical Analysis:


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential downside opportunities due to potential rejection of the resistance and the descending triangle in creation. To confirm the bigger drop on the BTC i would like to see breakout of the support at $8,900




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 07 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Philippines Securities and Exchange Commission has warned the public about individuals and groups involved in unauthorized cryptographic investments and transactions, adding that those involved in cryptographic programs can be fined, 21 years in prison or both, explaining:

"A maximum fine of P5 5 million, imprisonment up to 21 years or both are waiting for those who act as sellers, brokers, dealers or agents of entities involved in unauthorized investment programs [...] The Bayanihan to Heal As One Act, also punishes participating in cyber incidents that exploit the current crisis as a result of the COVID-19 explosion to rob the public through fraud, phishing, fake emails or other similar activities. "

The Philippine authorities also listed three unauthorized Ponzi cryptographic programs, one of which uses the Ethreum blockchain protocol: Forsage, RCashOnline and The Saint John of Jerusalem Knights of Malta Foundation of the Philippines, Inc.

According to the Philippine SEC, both Forsage and RCashOnline do not have the necessary licenses to operate. Therefore, they cannot accept investment from the public or issue investment agreements or other forms of securities. All three projects have one thing in common: they are Ponzi diagrams by nature. According to the statement, in addition to the lack of necessary licenses, the Forsage compensation plan resembles the Ponzi program, in which investors are paid from the contribution of new investors. RCashOnline relies heavily on recruiting members for high cash prizes, not selling products. The SEC warned that in the event of cancellation of a company such as The Saint John of Jerusalem Knights of Malta Foundation of the Philippines, Inc, for purposes other than liquidation, all other activities are illegal.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has retraced over 50% of the last wave down and made a local high at the level of $9,329. Only a sustained breakout above the $9,400 would put the bulls back in control over the market again. This level is very close to the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $9,375, so breakout will require a lot of momentum, which for now is strong and positive. The local technical support is seen at the level of $9,240 and $9,154.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,487
WR2 - $9,346
WR1 - $9,113

Weekly Pivot - $8,999
WS1 - $8,779
WS2 - $8,645
WS3 - $8,425


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 07 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Data from the second quarter of 2020, show a huge increase in the number of decentralized applications in all ecosystems, especially those managed by DeFi Ethereum. Decentralized exchanges were in the first line of growth when token mining activities flowed into chain exchange solutions.

According to the data, Curve was one of the largest beneficiaries because it helped users switch between different stablecoin coins to maximize profits. Curve is an automated money market that only supports exchanges between different types of stablecoin coins and wrapped tokens. This limitation allows you to provide fees for the exchange of assets.

According to Q2 DappRadar, DeFi's dominance indirectly led to a decrease in gaming activity. Over USD 2 billion was realized on DeFi platforms in the second quarter, which caused a sharp increase in gas prices. The living DApp ecosystem in Ethereum games suffered because fees accounted for a significant proportion of each transaction. DappRadar has seen a staggering 79% decline in online gaming activity in the previous quarter.

EOS seems to be the main "beneficiary" of Ethereum losses, as the volume of transactions in games increased by about 80% compared to the previous quarter. Although this is positive news for the platform, it still has not fully returned to the state from before the EIDOS dump at the end of 2019. Volumes remain well below records from the second quarter of the previous year.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD has finally broken through the short-term trend line resistance around the level of $230 and bulls push the price towards the level of $243. The levels of $235.42 and $232.20 will now act as a local technical support for the price. Nevertheless, the Bearish Engulfing pattern has been made at the top of the move and the market reversed lower towards the level of $235.42. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the support seen at $232.20 or below. On the other hand, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $243.71 and $248.86.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $241.60
WR2 - $236.80
WR1 - $229.63

Weekly Pivot - $225.04
WS1 - $218.03
WS2 - $213.12
WS3 - $205.61


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 06 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
A recent Blockchain Tencent accelerator competition took place in Shenzhen, China. The topic concerned "Blockchain industry and ecological construction".

According to local news, Professor Zhu Jiaming, a former United Nations Industrial Development Economist and President of Chinese Digital Assets Research, believes that "2020 is an important year for Blockchain integration in various industries and this is a key period in the history of Blockchain development and applications."

Zhu says that there is an unprecedented consensus on Blockchain status in macroeconomic and social governance, and that he has reached a national strategic level. He admits that Blockchain application scenarios have been extended in recent years. He also states that the combination of Blockchain with various industries has become more developed, and that the ecology of Blockchain industrialization has begun to appear. In this context, Zhu Jiaming believes that "Strategy, interaction, ecology and acceleration" have become the key words for Blockchain integration.

Apparently 60 companies participated in the Tench Blockchain accelerator competition. They were divided into three groups: "industrial Blockchain solutions", "industrial Blockchain infrastructure" and "industrial blockchain peripheral services". They cover finance, government affairs, logistics, legal affairs, education, industry and other industries, with a total value of over 10 billion yuan, or about $ 1.40 billion.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been trading inside of a narrow zone during the weekend after the bulls had managed to made a Pin Bar candlestick formation during the tests of the level of $8,858. The price keeps trading below the key short-term trend line resistance as well and the bears are making lower highs during a bounces. The momentum is hovering around the fifty level, which is a neutral level for both market participants, but in a case of any breakout higher above the trend line, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $9,150 and $9,240. Only a sustained breakout above the $9,240 would put the bulls back in control over the market again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,487
WR2 - $9,346
WR1 - $9,113

Weekly Pivot - $8,999
WS1 - $8,779
WS2 - $8,645
WS3 - $8,425


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 06 July 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Elon Musk has long aroused interest in the cryptocurrency environment. With unclear reasons, many investors on the BTC market are waiting for the creator of Tesla to invest in digital currencies. Last week, the famous businessman only admitted that ... has nothing to do with Ethereum.

Almost a year ago, Twitter post by William Shatner appeared. He suggested (half-jokingly, semi-seriously) that Vitalik Buterin and Elon Musk should consider building a platform based on Ethereum.

Then, in May 2019, none of the most interested responded. However, now Musk finally reacted and wrote on Twitter:

"I'm not building anything on ethereum. Not for or against it, just don't use it or own any".

Musk has long been arousing emotions on the market. First, many scams were based on his fake accounts. The fraudsters set up profiles that suggested that Tesla's CEO was behind them, and then persuaded naive Internet users to send them funds at BTC. In response, they were supposed to send a few times more cryptocurrencies. As you could easily guess, it was just a simple recruitment. It turned out, however, that some people fell for it. Why? Perhaps the reason was that Musk looks like a little crazy who would be able to do something so strange. In addition, the eccentric businessman recently announced that he was selling all his physical assets, including home. Then many BTC investors dreamed that he would buy cryptocurrency for such acquired funds.

Musk himself, however, already has cryptocurrencies, but apparently it is only 0.25 BTC. A little bit for a billionaire.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD has has almost hit the intraday support located around the level of $222, but it was not clearly violated yet. The market is still trading below the short-term trend line resistance, so the odds for another low are high as the momentum is still weak and negative. Neither bulls nor bears can make up their mind and made a breakout in either direction. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $217.65 and $209.89 and the nearest technical resistance for bulls is seen at the level of $232 ( just above 50% of the Fibonacci retracement located at $231.94).

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $241.60
WR2 - $236.80
WR1 - $229.63

Weekly Pivot - $225.04
WS1 - $218.03
WS2 - $213.12
WS3 - $205.61


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020