Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 24 June 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Former Deputy Chief of Vietnamese Criminal Police, Vu Hoang Kien, said campaigns to raise money for cryptocurrency companies are illegal in this country.

Kien warned Vietnamese citizens to remain vigilant and not get caught up in any form of investment in cryptocurrencies, no matter how high the profits are.

In addition to the risk of investing in such programs, he also emphasized that investments in cryptocurrencies and payments made using virtual currencies are not legally recognized in this country. Therefore, investing in or using cryptocurrencies will also mean breaking Vietnamese laws.

Despite the warnings, crypto investments are still underway in the country, said Nguyen Nam Hao from the Department of Corruption, Smuggling and Economic Crime Police. He also added that in order to limit fraud and minimize other negative effects of cryptocurrencies, Vietnam needs more stringent and detailed rules.

In August 2017, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc ordered the Central Bank of Vietnam and the Ministry of Finance to review virtual currencies and establish a legal framework for regulating them.

However, the review did not result in benefits for cryptocurrencies. The central bank announced the following month that the use of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is illegal in this country. In April 2018, cryptocurrencies were officially banned as means of payment for goods and services.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair is testing the range zone upper line located at the level of $248.90 after the bounce from the technical support located at the level of $225.84. Momentum is now increasing, which help the bullish cause, bur despite the recent rally continuation, Ethereum is still trading below the key technical resistance seen at the level of $252.03. Moreover, any sustained violation of the nearest technical support located at the level of $238.68 might accelerate the drop towards the next support seen at the level of $235.42. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $257.09
WR2 - $246.02
WR1 - $2437.53

Weekly Pivot - $227.45
WS1 - $218.65
WS2 - $207.59
WS3 - $198.98


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for June 23,.2020 - Watch for potential drop in case of the downside breakout of the channel. Target set at $8.890

Coronavirus summary:


GERMAN ECONOMISTS SEE SUMMER GROWTH REBOUND AFTER VIRUS

A panel of economists that advises the German government has said Europe's leading economy will likely shrink 6.5% this year but the post-coronavirus recovery will begin "from the summer".

"Economic developments in Germany are likely to fall close to the deep 'V' scenario" described in an emergency forecast in March," the so-called "Wise Men" panel (SVR) said, referring to a sharp plunge and relatively swift rebound.

"From the summer, a gradual recovery should get going, making for 4.9% growth in 2021," said the Wise Men – who for the first time this year include two women on their five-strong panel.


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading upwards as I expected. The price reached our first upward target at $9,460 but I see potential for the downside movement. Downward target is set at $8,890


Trading recommendation:
The confirmation of further downside movement will be in case of the breakout of rising trendline.

Watch for selling opportunities with the main target at $8,890




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 23 June 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The UK Financial Supervision Authority (FCA) has called on all national cryptocurrency companies to register with a supervisory authority.

According to the FCA statement, companies must submit completed applications by June 30. The regulator says that the deadline is necessary to ensure that all applications will be considered by the end of the grace period on January 10, 2021.

The regulatory body has set requirements for compliance with certain types of cryptography activities that include a full risk assessment on anti-money laundering (AML) and terrorist financing (CTF) rules.

Businesses operating in the United Kingdom will have to implement both monitoring and control systems to eliminate potential threats related to AML and CTF. Failure to meet the deadline by 2021 means that they will have to stop operating in this country.

The deadline of June 30 "allows FCA to check submitted applications and ask companies questions" - we read in a statement.

In addition, traditional fintech companies dealing with cryptographic assets that are already authorized under the 2000 Services and Financial Markets Act, the Electronic Money Regulations 2011 or the Payment Services Regulations 2017 will also have to apply for streamlining of regulatory monitoring.

The supervisor warned that "it will proactively monitor compliance by companies with new regulations and take swift action where companies do not meet the desired standards."


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair is testing the lower channel line seen at the level of $242.50 after the bounce from the technical support located at the level of $225.84. Despite the bounce, Ethereum is still trading below the key technical resistance seen at the level of $252.03. Moreover, any sustained violation of the nearest technical support located at the level of $238.68 might accelerate the drop towards the next support seen at the level of $235.42. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $257.09
WR2 - $246.02
WR1 - $2437.53

Weekly Pivot - $227.45
WS1 - $218.65
WS2 - $207.59
WS3 - $198.98


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 23 June 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Wang Wong Zhongmin, former vice chairman of the Chinese National Social Security Fund Council, announced that China has completed the development of the architecture of the back office of China's digital currency, the central bank (CBDC).

Wang announced this during the Fintech 2020 online forum organized by the Tencent Fintech Research Institute and the Fintech 50 Forum in Beijing.

With so many existing and developed cryptocurrencies, China is trying to create a payment infrastructure in which these currencies could coexist with sovereign digital currencies. Wang said that such a system would create an environment in the digital currency space for healthier competition and cooperation.

According to Wang, the epidemic has increased competition in the digital currency space, and more technology giants and governments have become interested in creating a better digital payment infrastructure. He also noted the development of Libra.

Wang said in the forum that CBDC in China is currently being tested. Earlier, there were also reports that the country began developing regulations that would help launch and implement the digital currency.

The Chinese technology and payment giants Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei and China Merchants Bank are believed to cooperate with the People's Bank of China in developing and testing.

Although everyone is still not sure when China plans to officially release the digital currency, head of Ledger Vault from the Asia-Pacific region Glenn Woo said that the digital Yuan will probably be the first virtual currency supported by the state around the world.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has made a Pin Bar candlestick patter after the rally has hit the key technical resistance seen at the level of $9,704. This might be an early indication that the rally is over and bears are trying to regain the control over the market. Please keep an eye on the key short-term technical support located at the level of $9,530 as any violation of this level might accelerate the drop towards the level of $9,381. The key technical support is located at the level of $8,8858. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,274
WR2 - $9,895
WR1 - $9,583

Weekly Pivot - $9,212
WS1 - $8,912
WS2 - $8,511
WS3 - $8,252


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for June 22,.2020 - Watch for buying the dips intraday. Upward target set at the price of $9.640

News:


Bitcoin held on exchanges hit a two-year low this month, according to data from Santiment. A massive outflow of BTC from exchanges is a sign of accumulation and signals investor's positive perception of the cryptocurrency.


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $9500. I see potential for rise towards the $9,640 and $9,895.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for buying opportunities on the BTC due to breakout of the slope pattern in the background and potential end of the intraday downside cycle.





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 22 June 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Economist, financial commentator and gold supporter Peter Schiff has once again "bit" Bitcoin in a tweet, basically calling him a fiat currency, such as the US dollar, thus supporting the Fed's position.

"The Fed is right about Bitcoin. It categorizes it according to fiat, as opposed to gold, which has real value. It sees nothing new in Bitcoin, only in the way it is exchanged. As you lose confidence in both traditional money and cryptocurrencies, savers will return to
gold. " - he wrote on Twitter.

Liberty Street Economics, a blog run by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies are simply cash in another form, not "a new type of money," according to the cryptographic industry. The article indicates the difference between money itself and the way people make transactions or use them.

"The ability to make electronic exchanges without a trusted entity - a characteristic of Bitcoin - is completely new. Bitcoin is not a new class of money, it is a new type of exchange mechanism, and this type of mechanism can support various forms of money as well as other types of assets." - we read in the entry.

After many comments on the subject, Peter Schiff became known in the cryptographic space as someone who takes up the topic every day, in his opinion the superiority of gold over cryptography. In April 2020, the economist also predicted a sharp rise in gold prices and a sharp decline in the value of Bitcoins in the coming years. In March, he also called "fools" investing in Bitcoins.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has retraced the majority of the last wave up and is currently trading around the level of $9,381, which is a technical resistance for the price. There is almost no jump in momentum during the recent bounce as the RSI indicator is still hovering around the level of fifty, so this is a neutral level for momentum. The key technical resistance is seen at the level of $9,704 and the key technical support is located at the level of $8,8858. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,274
WR2 - $9,895
WR1 - $9,583

Weekly Pivot - $9,212
WS1 - $8,912
WS2 - $8,511
WS3 - $8,252


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 22 June 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Eight technology companies from seven different emerging economies will receive the investment tool for cryptocurrency Ethereum from the crypto fund UNICEF.

The investment tool with UNICEF cryptography support has donated 125 ETH, worth approximately $ 28,600, to these companies for use in scaling or prototyping relevant technologies over the next six months. The companies that are covered by this program have already received $ 100,000 in fiat currency from the UNICEF innovation fund.

One such company, Afinidata, offers educational content for parents with young children. Another, Cireha, builds communication systems for children with speech or language impairments for use in the offline world. They are largely charitable, and UNICEF gives them impetus to use cryptocurrency to continue this mission.

"We see that the digital world is reaching us faster than we could have imagined - and UNICEF must be able to use all the tools of this new world to help children today and tomorrow."

- said Chris Fabian, co-founder of UNICEF Ventures in a statement, adding:

The transfer of these funds - to eight companies in seven countries around the world - took less than 20 minutes and cost us less than $ 20. An almost immediate global shift in value, fees less than 0.00009% of the total amount transferred, and real-time transparency for our donors and supporters are the types of tools we enjoy.

Because UNICEF is a United Nations organization that protects the welfare of children around the world, it also works for a better future. As the organization distributes money to technology companies around the world, it's worth noting that blockchain technology seems to match its future plans.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair is testing the nearest technical resistance seen at the level of $235.42 after the bounce from the technical support located at the level of $225.84.Despite the bounce, Ethereum is still locked inside of a narrow zone located between those two levels and might spend some time inside of this zone, just like it does two weeks ago. There is no big spike in momentum as well, which is another indication of lack of the strength in the bills camp. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $257.09
WR2 - $246.02
WR1 - $2437.53

Weekly Pivot - $227.45
WS1 - $218.65
WS2 - $207.59
WS3 - $198.98


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 19 June 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Over the past week, the cryptographic community has been confused by three small Ethereum transfers that have consumed millions of dollars in fees. However, new reports have indicated that seven-digit charges may have been deliberately spent as part of a blackmail program targeting the cryptocurrency exchange, and the Chinese analyst firm PeackShield concluded that the transactions were likely due to extortion attempts. A number of millions of fees are the effects of a hacker attack trying to take over the cryptocurrency exchange. The report speculates that it was hacked during a phishing attack, allowing attackers to gain control over the rights to many of the platform's operational functions, including its servers.

Although the implementation of restrictions involving the use of multiple signatures prevented attackers from stealing funds from the stock exchange into portfolios under their control, it turned out that they were able to make transfers to addresses on the white list, specifying them as gas charges, for these transactions. Accordingly, researchers believe that hackers have the option of emptying the stock market if they do not receive a bribe, and PeakShield claims that 21,000 ETH remains in the portfolio under hacker control.

The first multi-million transfer fee took place on June 10, and the transfer fees of USD 2.6 million were only 0.55 ETH. Within 24 hours, a second 350 ETH transfer from the same portfolio was made, again spending USD 2.6 million on the aforementioned gas. The next day the Ethereum network processed a third interesting transfer, this time from a different portfolio. The transaction was based on the amount of 2,310 ETH for the transfer of 3,221 ETH.

Unclear transfers caused a number of different theories among members of the cryptographic community who sought to explain seven-digit fees, attributing transactions to the vindictive actions of a former stock exchange employee, a massive human error or money laundering error.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair is getting away from the main channel lower line. The technical resistance located at the level of $235.42 has been too strong for bulls and new local low was made after the failed rally. The market is testing the local support at the level of $225.84, but any violation of this line will likely make the level of $217.65 the next target foe bears. The nearest technical resistance is still seen at the level of $235.42. The larger time frame trend remains up.


Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $269.64
WR2 - $259.20
WR1 - $244.61

Weekly Pivot - $234.84
WS1 - $219.79
WS2 - $210.55
WS3 - $195.77


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 19 June 2020

Crypto Industry News:
According to recent Google Trends data, interest in bitcoin has reached its lowest level in three months. It began to disappear from the third halving in the history of the oldest cryptocurrency.

Interest in bitcoin began to increase at the beginning of the year, when information about the COVID-19 virus began to spread to the mainstream. This trend continued until mid-March, until bitcoin collapsed along with the global stock market due to the effects of the pandemic. As usual, huge price fluctuations aroused curiosity in people, which significantly increased global interest in cryptocurrencies during this period.

Google Trends shows that interest in bitcoin began to decline after exiting the deep hole. Then, with the approaching halving, it began to increase again, and the number of searches for the word "Bitcoin" in Google was the highest in this period since July 2019.

The number of Google queries has also increased that more and more people were looking for a way to buy cryptocurrencies during the March crash and before halving.

After the world began to slowly adapt to COVID-19 and the third halving ended, the search for bitcoin-related phrases has fallen to its lowest level since March, and has also approached the lowest level since the beginning of the year.


Technical Market Outlook:
Since the market made the local high at the level of $9,530, the BTC/USD pulled back towards the technical support located at the level of $9,249,putting bears in control over the market. In a case of a pull back extension from here, the next technical support is seen at the level of $8,565 and the nearest technical resistance is still seen at the level of $9,530. The larger time frame trend remains up. The momentum indicator is totally flat around the neutral level of fifty.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,691
WR2 - $10,307
WR1 - $9,752

Weekly Pivot - $9,407
WS1 - $8,828
WS2 - $8,448
WS3 - $7,903


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Antifragility of the first cryptocurrency

Greetings to all newbie crypto-traders and experienced crypto enthusiasts!

In this article, we will discuss the anti-fragility of assets, in particular the crypto industry, as this is currently the most relevant.

So, the term "anti-fragility" came to us from the famous professor, economist and trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who proved that profit can be made from chaos.

"Antifragility" is the ability to benefit from stressful situations. Antifragile systems are not just immune to cataclysms, in difficult conditions they "harden" and become better.

From year to year, bitcoin, as a separate cryptocurrency, goes through difficult trials caused by criticism, prohibition, internal and external problems, and now a pandemic, and the global economic crisis. There were a lot of problems at all stages of formation, but Bitcoin still stands still, and its cost amounts to thousands of dollars.

This is a living example of the "antifragile" asset of the future!

Who would have thought that Bitcoin would be traded on the CME commodity exchange five years ago, and institutional investors would keep it in their portfolios for millions of dollars, and this, by the way, is a fact of our future. Bitcoin was able to benefit from the stressful situation and apply it to the benefit of its adaptation in the public and in the market in general.

The adaptation and anti-fragility of the first cryptocurrency led to the fact that Bitcoin turned out to be the most stable asset during the global financial crisis in March 2020. Based on a study by JPMorgan, the world's largest investment bank, the first cryptocurrency, to the surprise of experts, received a strong correlation with stocks and other traditional assets, which could not have been imagined over the past years. At the same time, the recovery process of Bitcoin after the decline of markets in March turned out to be much faster in terms of liquidity and asset value than traditional trading instruments.

"Bitcoin's liquidity fell very much during the peak market drop, but recovered much faster than liquidity in traditional markets. The depth of the Bitcoin market is already above the average for the year, while the liquidity of more traditional asset classes has not yet recovered," a report from JPMorgan said.

Moreover, Bitcoin does not stop at this. Based on an analysis of the financial corporation Fidelity Investments, which manages $ 7.2 trillion of funds, 36% of the surveyed 774 large customers in the US and Europe added digital assets to the portfolio.

"The results confirm a growing trend of interest and the adoption of digital assets as a new investment asset class," said Tom Jessop, president of Fidelity Digital Assets.

That is, institutional investors are already at work, and with such turnovers that it is already difficult to say that we are dealing with a one-day hype, as you might have heard a couple of years ago.

In turn, the chief editor and family member of the founders of the Forbes business publication, Steve Forbes, changed his mind about crypto assets, saying that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can be considered a protective tool against the unstable economic policies of states.

The first cryptocurrency is still far from a defensive asset, but with the achievements that have been achieved, then why not? This is the essence of antifragility, which will turn into success over time, and most importantly, recognition of the public.



Current development and prospects

As early as 50 days, the Bitcoin quote is within the new range of $ 8,500 / $ 10,000, where the recovery from the March decline was 150%, which can be considered an amazing result in terms of speed. A stepped price course indicates that the market is demonstrating a kind of stabilization of interests, thereby controlling speculative excitement, which could theoretically give Bitcoin the basis for further strengthening.

Regarding the accumulation of stop orders [StopLoss], it is worth allocating the coordinates of $ 8,300 / $ 10,500, where if their price is touched, a significant acceleration in the direction of breakdown may occur. At this point, we are focusing attention, since working within the existing range is not so attractive, and most importantly, profitable, as the way out of it.

Based on the general background of market recovery, there is a prospect for further growth of Bitcoin, which means that if prices are consolidated higher than $ 10,500 in the daily period, the market can move to a new level in the region of $ 12,000 / $ 13,868, which will already lead to a maximum 2019 year.

I remind you that you shouldn't enter trading positions early, wait for the stop orders to trigger above the $ 10,500 mark to minimize the chance of a false signal.



The general background of the cryptocurrency market

Analyzing the total market capitalization, we can see a significant upward spiral in trading volumes, where the total market is $ 267 billion.

If we consider the volume chart in general terms, then it is clear that the breakdown of the February ceiling of this year is $ 304 billion and its breakdown will lead to further growth in the direction of the maximum of 2019 of $ 362 billion.



The crypto market emotion index (aka fear and euphoria) is 40 points, but it is worth considering that for the period of a new stage, the index had an average of 45 points, which, in principle, is not bad for an emotional background.



Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), it can be seen that relative to the four-hour and daily periods, there is a variable sell signal due to working out the upper boundary of the flat formation of $ 8,500 / $ 10,000. The weekly period, in turn, still reflects the buy signal due to the fast recovery process.




Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020