Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD on 27 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
According to a Russian television station, a bill was passed to the parliament by which crypto trade could be completely outlawed. Thanks to the act, the Russians could also regulate digital assets to the detriment of their owners.

Federal Assembly members propose severe penalties for using cryptocurrencies. These regulations suggest a fine of 500,000 to 2 million rubles for users who make large profits on electronic currency, while those who use crypto for illegal activities could be sent to prison for up to 7 years. Although the bill does not prohibit the complete use of digital assets, analysts believe that approval of this idea by the government will cause that running stock exchanges and trading on the fiat-crypto line through any Russian financial institution will be a violation of the law.

One should remember about the recent change in the position of the Russian authorities towards the crypto industry, where the Russian Central Bank published a bill prohibiting the issue of cryptocurrencies, citing the threat associated with them.

Recently, the Russian Federal Ministry of Economic Development has submitted a draft of another law, this time enabling the legalization of cryptocurrencies and all solutions based on blockchain technology. However, its introduction would be based on special regulations. This would mean that the Russian Central Bank would be the only body regulating this sector, which would significantly reduce the crypto industry in Russia.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been trading under the blue trend line in a narrow zone between the levels of $8,656 - $8,836 after the bounce from the level of $8,567 was made. The bounce is so far very shallow and the next the nearest resistance is located at the level of $8,919 and $9,013. On the other hand, the next technical support is seen at the level of $8,464 and $8,357.The momentum remains weak and negative, so the odds for another wave down are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,568
WR2 - $10,245
WR1 - $9,478

Weekly Pivot - $9,098
WS1 - $8,333
WS2 - $7,968
WS3 - 7,231


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 27 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
On May 18, the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine published a new draft law "On Virtual Assets", which aims to determine the legal status of cryptographic assets, rules for their circulation and issue in the country. The current version of the proposal is not final and is open to dialogue with the cryptographic community until June 5, 2020.

According to one of the co-authors of the new bill, the main goal of the initiative is to enable local cryptographic companies, such as stock exchanges, to open bank accounts. Michael Chobanian, president of the Bitcoin Ukraine association, an organization that co-authored the new account along with state authorities, law firms and industry entities, says cryptocurrency exchanges still can't create a bank account in Ukraine. The proposed bill aims to lead the cryptographic industry out of the "gray zone" and bring legal presence to companies in Ukraine. Pursuant to the Act, virtual asset service providers, i.e. cryptographic exchanges, issuers and users.

However, unblocking the cryptographic industry in Ukraine has some costs. Earlier this week, Andriy Khavryuchenko, founder of the DevNull.AI programming company, wrote on Twitter that the Ukrainian project "On Virtual Assets" will make all cryptocurrency wallets in Ukraine illegal unless they register with the Ministry. According to the bill, local companies must register to legally conduct fiat-to-crypto operations in Ukraine.

Ukraine is considering the law governing cryptographic assets for at least four years. The first reports of Ukrainian cryptography regulations appeared at the end of 2015, when the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine announced plans to define the legal status of Bitcoin by January 2016. As in Russia, none of the existing legislative initiatives on cryptography has yet been adopted in Ukraine.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $195.94 which is a 38% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. The bulls are defending the blue trend line support and the target for them is seen at the level of $205.05 of higher at the level of $209.89. Any violation of the blue trend line will likely result in another wave down towards the levels of $193.78 and $188.86, so please keep an eye on current price developments around this levels .

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $234.40
WR2 - $228.76
WR1 - $216.85

Weekly Pivot - $204.00
WS1 - $192.21
WS2 - $178.64
WS3 - $166.85


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 26 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The President of Iran has commissioned central bank officials and ministries of energy, communication and IT to prepare plans for a national strategy for mining cryptocurrencies.

As reported by Iranian media, officials received information during the 137th session of Iran's economic coordination center earlier this week, chaired by President Hassan Rouhani. The situation takes place shortly after the announcement by the Iranian government of a policy of denominating the national currency, or rial, to address the problem of paralyzing chronic inflation. Earlier this week, Iran also introduced cryptocurrencies to its foreign currency exchange regulations and enforcement measures against currency smuggling. This will cause cryptographic exchanges licensed by the Central Bank of Iran to be subject to applicable regulatory regimes for foreign currencies during periods of extreme capital outflows from emerging markets during a global pandemic.

While further details on Iran's national cryptocurrency mining strategy have not yet been clarified, Iran has already issued about 1,000 licenses for cryptocurrency miners in the country and has granted permission to the Turkish cryptocurrency mining company iMiner to set up a facility with 6,000 excavators in of the province of Semnan. The Iranian government allowed the extraction of cryptocurrencies as industrial activity in July 2019. In the ongoing difficult economic situation, the general of the Guard Corps of the Islamic Revolution turned to the crowds earlier this year, calling on the country to use cryptocurrencies to circumvent sanctions.

President Rouhani himself argued for the creation of an alternative currency, potentially digital, to loosen the grip that US sanctions exert as "the main tools for dominating hegemony and intimidation" of certain nations.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has been consolidating for the last 24h around the level of $200. Earlier this week, Ethereum bounced from the level of $190.55, but did not manage to make a new high above the level of $217. After the Shooting Star candlestick was made at the level of $209.89 the Ethereum rate begin to move lower. The bulls had all the weekend to push the prices higher, but they failed and now the market is very close to the key short-term trend line support located around the level of $196.30. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the next technical support located at the level of $193.78 and $188.88.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $234.40
WR2 - $228.76
WR1 - $216.85

Weekly Pivot - $204.00
WS1 - $192.21
WS2 - $178.64
WS3 - $166.85


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 26 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
New strict rules, in which many ways of using digital resources are punishable by a fine or imprisonment, may soon become law in Russia.

New bills specifying how Russia should regulate cryptocurrencies were sent to the parliament of the country, the State Duma, earlier this week. Although the official site for the planned regulations has not yet been updated, both documents were published in the OrderCom telegram channel and were confirmed as authentic by the sources of the Russian news channel RBK.

Legislative proposals were reportedly written by employees of the Digital Economy think tank and the Skolkovo business accelerator. They are looking for a new version of the Digital Resources Act that has been stuck in the Duma for over two years, as well as cryptocurrency-oriented additions to the national criminal code.

The first bill would regulate digital currencies in Russia, or more precisely, prohibit the issuance and operation of digital currencies. It would even be forbidden to disseminate information on such activities.

Individuals and companies will not be able to accept digital currencies as payments, unless they are inherited, transferred to the debtors of a bankrupt company or confiscated as a result of a court decision. People with cryptocurrency should declare it at the tax office, as well as provide information on how to buy.

A second draft would introduce a new article in the Criminal Code imposing sanctions for illegal operations using digital resources.

If the regulations are adopted, the issue of digital assets in Russia without permission to enter in the register, which is yet to be created in the central bank of this country, will result in a fine of up to two million rubles (almost $ 28,000). The same level of penalty is suggested for organizing operations with digital resources and cryptocurrencies without permission, while people would face fines of up to $ 2,800.

Buying a cryptocurrency for cash or a bank transfer from a Russian bank would be subject to a fine of up to one million Russian rubles ($ 14,000) or up to seven years in prison, depending on the scale of the contract. A similar penalty would apply to those who accept crypto for goods and services.

If such a business brings "particularly large" profits or particularly large damage to citizens and the state, the proposal would cause the person (s) involved to be imprisoned for up to seven years, or even forced labor.

Mention of the central bank register suggests that legislators are free to some officially sanctioned entities to issue and use digital assets, while most general operations would be banned.

According to the RBK report, Anatoly Aksakov, head of the Duma of the Financial Markets Commission, confirmed the authenticity of the documents, but stated that they had not been finalized.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the level of $8,576 after breaking through the key trend line support located around the level of $8,800. The bounce is so far very shallow and the next the nearest resistance is located at the level of $8,919 and $9,013. On the other hand, the next technical support is seen at the level of $8,464 and $8,357.The momentum remains weak and negative, so the odds for another wave down are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,568
WR2 - $10,245
WR1 - $9,478

Weekly Pivot - $9,098
WS1 - $8,333
WS2 - $7,968
WS3 - 7,231


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for May 25,.2020 - Downcycle in progress. Downward target set at $8.140

Coronavirus summary:


The volume of Bitcoin (BTC) tweets is on the rise once again pointing to a strengthening of bullish expectations among traders.

Tweeting on Monday, analyst Zack Voell highlighted the significant surge in Bitcoin Twitter mentions over the past few months. In the past, social media metrics such as tweet volume or comments on platforms like Reddit have indicated the emergence of bullish sentiments among traders.

Anyway, I cant see technicly any sings of the upside and there is good condiiton for further downside.


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading downwards as I expected. The price is heading towards our second target from Friday at the level of $8,137. I still see further downside movement.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies targets at $8,137 and $7,785.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 25 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
According to an announcement from the Banque de France, France became the first country to successfully try the digital euro operating on Blockchain after calling for new technologies to support such progress.

The bank claims that on May 14, it tested the sale of securities for central bank digital currencies (CBDC), signaling the launch of more detailed testing. Although the bank's announcement was not very detailed, it indicated that the current pilot program focused on wholesale rather than retail for the digital euro. Retail CBDC would be open to ordinary consumers through Bitcoin or Apple Pay. The latest pilot issue of securities in exchange for the digital euro was based on the software received after the March 27 call for proposals. According to today's announcement, the bank will devote the next few weeks to conducting similar tests for other applications received under the same initiative.

Banque de France is particularly active in the development of the digital euro. By the time Great Britain leaves, France will become the second largest economy in the euro area after Germany.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $190.55, but did not manage to make a new high above the level of $217. After the Shooting Star candlestick was made at the level of $209.89 the Ethereum rate begin to move lower. The bulls had all the weekend to push the prices higher, but they failed and now the market is very close to the key short-term trend line support located around the level of $196.30. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the next technical support located at the level of $193.78 and $188.88.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $234.40
WR2 - $228.76
WR1 - $216.85

Weekly Pivot - $204.00
WS1 - $192.21
WS2 - $178.64
WS3 - $166.85


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 25 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Just before halving, Bitcoin's Hash Rate has almost reached its new ATH. Unfortunately, shortly after halving (as expected by many analysts) we saw drastic drops. Citing data provided by blockchain.com, the 7-day average HR value of the BTC network increased for the first time since May 11. Admittedly, a small reflection of only 1% may suggest slow stabilization of this very important indicator.

May 22 Hash Rate fluctuated at 94.6 million H / s, the previous day the value was 93.6 H / s, which is an increase of 1.11%. Just before halving, the new ATH was at hand, but unfortunately everything indicates that we will have to wait for the new record.

Drastic drops in the power of the BTC network have caused concern among many analysts. Many claimed that Hash Rate fell into a "spiral of death" and fell to the bottom. A ray of hope gives the last positive reading.

After halving, as expected, many miners capitulated. Reducing the mining prize by half has pushed many out of the market.

The decrease in Hash Rate also had an impact on the amount of adjustment of the difficulty of digging BTC. This, in turn, fell from 16.1 T to 15.1 T. From a miner's point of view, this is a good signal, as it may encourage some of them to return.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has broken through the key trend line support located around the level of $8,800 and made a new local low at the level of $8,567. The next technical support is seen at the level of $8,464 and $8,357. On the other hand, the nearest resistance is located at the level of $8,919 and $9,013. The momentum remains weak and negative, so the odds for another wave down are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $10,568
WR2 - $10,245
WR1 - $9,478

Weekly Pivot - $9,098
WS1 - $8,333
WS2 - $7,968
WS3 - 7,231


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 22 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Bitcoin address, which collected 50 BTC from mining, has just shown the first sign of activity since February 2009 - just a month after the creation of Bitcoin.

According to data, the address 17XiVVooLcdCUCMf9s4t4jTExacxwFS5uh transferred the entire award for mining 50 BTC to two different wallets. Of this, 40 BTC remains inactive. The remaining 10 BTC were sent to the multiple address, as evidenced by its starting number.

Since then, the transaction chain has become more difficult to track because Bitcoins have been split into almost tens of parts within a complex chain.

The original wallet contained a transaction generating 50 Bitcoins, which were mined on February 9, 2009. In the community it is known that Satoshi's "fortune" is spread over many different wallets.

Only three people knew about Bitcoin at the time: Satoshi, the dead Hal Finney and Martti Malmi.

Theories about the potential owner of these funds include the wife of Finney and Malmi, but Satoshi is also a likely candidate. The complex transaction chain suggests that the signatory is trying to hide the destination of the funds.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been pushed lower after almost a week of hovering around the level of $10,000, but not breaking it. The bears has pushed the price towards the level of $8,759, which is just a tad above the trend line support. If this trend line is violated, then the losses might extend towards the level of $8,464 or below. Please notice, the momentum is weak and negative which supports the short term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $12,194
WR2 - $10,994
WR1 - $10,553

Weekly Pivot - $9,337
WS1 - $8,765
WS2 - $7,555
WS3 - 7,013


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 22 May 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The university, which trains officials of the Communist Party of China, has published a new book about cryptocurrencies.

According to a local publication, the Central Party School of the Communist Party of China - also known as the Central Party School - published a book as part of a series of books on breakthrough technologies. Previous entries in this series were "Dialogue with party leaders about AI" and "Dialogue with party leaders about Blockchain".

The goal of the book series is to provide party officials and the public with a source of information on emerging new technology trends. Chinese Central Bank directors, commercial banking directors and regulators were invited to write a prologue to a new published book on cryptography.

The book begins with the history and origin of fiat currency, and then gives an overview of the current credit currency system and its disadvantages. This leads to a section on cryptographic movement and the birth of Bitcoin.

The book further explores the nature and future of the digital currency and explains in detail what cryptographic exchanges and ICOs are. Discusses and analyzes regulatory problems regarding these new solutions.

The entire chapter of the book was distributed to the Digital Currencies of the Central Bank (CBDC). Explains the strategy behind digital Yuan and the impact it would have on the current payment system. A full comparative analysis of CBDC, Libra and stablecoins was included.

It warns against the dangers of super sovereign cryptocurrencies, such as Libra, questioning the monetary sovereignty of countries with imperfect financial market infrastructure. Proposes regulatory measures to address these trends.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has extended the losses after the breakout from the Triangle pattern. Moreover, the bears has manage to break through the short-term trend line support as well ( marked in navy on chart) and below another trend line support as well (marked in brown on the chart). The local low was made at the level of $190 which is a technical support for the price. Any violation of this level will lead to the correction extension towards the level of $188.86 and $186.72. Please notice, that the momentum is decreasing as market is coming off from the overbought conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $259.01
WR2 - $231.70
WR1 - $222.59

Weekly Pivot - $197.56
WS1 - $188.48
WS2 - $163.94
WS3 - $154.56


Trading Recommendations:
The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for May 21,.2020 - The drop on BTC started and conifmed our downside view. Downward target is set at the price of $8.150

News:


A rally in April 2020 lifted crypto hedge fund YTD profits to 13.4 percent, while a wider hedge fund industry suffered losses.

Meanwhile, the Embark Group's Peter Toogood warned that many fund managers are not bullish on the U.S. stocks.

Some of the world's leading hedge funds are losing the profit-making race to smaller rivals with high exposure in the Bitcoin market.

Hedge fund research group HFR found that bitcoin-focused investment partnerships earned 13.4 percent yields this year, which came to be better than the average 6.7 percent YTD loss across the non-crypto hedge fund industry. The crypto industry flourished despite losing 26.62 of its capitalization on average in March 2020.

Pantera Capital, for instance, bore a 33.6 percent loss via its Digital Assets Fund in March. But its recovery in April took its YTD profits to 32.5 percent.


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading downwards. As I expected, the BTC broke the upward channel and test the level of $9,200. I still see BTC downside and the next downward target is set at the price of $8,150.





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020