Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 28 April 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Silk Road founder and prisoner Ross Ulbricht sees long-term opportunities for the cryptocurrency price to stay well above $ 20,000.Writing on his personal Medium account in the American prison Tucson, Ulbricht developed his comments from the beginning of this month, in which he predicted the decline of Bitcoin to $ 3,200 as a clear possibility. Although he admitted that his prediction was the likely second wave scenario, the founder of Silk Road wants the cryptographic community to know that "it is still bullish in the long run."

Seeing both the short-term and long-term growth potential of cryptocurrency, Ulbricht attributes any possible bear behavior between two successive waves as nothing more than "slight fluctuations."

Although he admits that his access to information is limited from prison, Ulbricht continues to provide Bitcoin market analysis on his Medium blog. He is currently serving two life sentences without parole after being found guilty of money laundering, computer hacking and drug trafficking conspiracy with the Silk Road market on Darknet.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has moved higher again and has been testing the recent swing high located at the level of $7,707 for all day yesterday and is currently hovering around this level. In a case of a further breakout, the next target is seen at the level of $7,897, but there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator at current levels. If bears will push the prices lower, they can hit the next technical support located at the level of $7,385 and below.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,046
WR2 - $8,348
WR1 - $8,040

Weekly Pivot - $7,352
WS1 - $7,064
WS2 - $6,356
WS3 - $6,047


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 04.27.2020 - Potential for the BTC to rotate to the downside due to lack of upside momentum

BTC News:


Bitcoinminer landscape has grown exponentially as the years have gone. While the early years of Bitcoin relied on wide personal computers and GPUs, the current mining operations scenario involves extremely well-organized mining pools that rely on cutting-edge ASIC miners. However, as the scale of the operations has grown, there have been quite a few questions raised regarding the environmental cost incurred while mining Bitcoin.


Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading upwards. The price tested the important reistance at the level of $7,800 and did reject. I see potential for the downside rotation towards the levels at $7,375 and $7,165.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for selling opportunities due to test of the major resistance and the bearish divergence ont he Stochastic oscillator in the background.

The downward targets are set at the price of $7,375 and $7,165.





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 27 April 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The main producer of Bitcoin mining chips, Ebang, has made the first IPO offer worth $ 100 million to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company is trying to distribute class A shares with a nominal value of $ 0.00013 per share. The company plans to appear on the Nasdaq global stock exchange or the New York stock exchange under the slogan EBON. These plans take place almost two years after the company attempted to launch the $ 1 billion initial public offering in Hong Kong. In 2019, 82% of Ebang's revenues came from ASICs and wireless integrated circuits for miners.

Ebang's annual revenues were $ 109 million last year. Falling demand for mining equipment caused a 66% drop in growth from $ 319 million in 2018. Gross profit fell from $ 24.4 million in 2018, to $ 30.6 million gross loss last year. Sales of Ebang coins dropped from 415,930 at an average price of $ 737, to 289,953 coins for $ 304.

Ebang claims that the demand for its products is directly related to Bitcoin price fluctuations, as the market requirements and unit price of Bitcoin mining machines are correlated with the economic returns of these machines, and above all depends on the price of Bitcoin. The increase in BTC will generally increase market demand for mining machinery, which in turn will allow Ebang products to be valued higher and vice versa. The documentation shows that Ebang has completed the design of its own 8 nm and 7 nm ASC systems, adding that it is ready for mass production of 8 nm units when, he said, market conditions will become appropriate.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been testing the recent swing high located at the level of $7,707 for all the weekend and is currently hovering around this level. In a case of a further breakout, the next target is seen at the level of $7,897, but there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscilator at current levels. If bears will push the prices lower, they can hit the next techncial support located at the level of $7,385 and below.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,046
WR2 - $8,348
WR1 - $8,040

Weekly Pivot - $7,352
WS1 - $7,064
WS2 - $6,356
WS3 - $6,047


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Anaylsis of ETH/USD for 27 April 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Dutch crypto savings platform, Bittr, decided to close its operations before the Netherlands introduced EU anti-money laundering regulations, AMLD5. The closing of Bittr is the result of open criticism of AMLD5 in the Netherlands, where according to all information they result in cryptographic companies paying higher fees than companies offering credit cards and traditional trusts. Bittr founder Ruben Waterman announced that the platform will close on April 28.

Waterman does not agree to being forced to collect confidential data identifying his clients. While Waterman says he was willing to make some of the changes commissioned by AMLD5, he also claims that his company does not have the resources to manage the documentation or the resources to hire a clerk to handle the case. It is worth adding that Bittr is a one-man operation.

While the AMLD5 was intended to increase regulatory transparency at the regional level, by introducing a unified AML framework, various laws at the national level led to unique interpretations of AMLD5 in different jurisdictions.

The new guidelines require approximately 50 crypto companies based in the Netherlands to pay central bank supervision fees of approximately $ 1.8 million, and the costs be allocated according to the turnover of each company's virtual currency.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD bulls has managed to push the price towards the level of $198, which is very close to the key short-term resistance level. The rate is moving inside of a Falling Wedge pattern, so any violation of the level of $193.78 will likely result in a further sell-off towards the level of $188.86 and below. There is a clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum indicator that supports the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $243.80
WR2 - $220.39
WR1 - $211.16

Weekly Pivot - $187.55
WS1 - $172.98
WS2 - $155.34
WS3 - $144.09


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 24 April 2020

Crypto Industry News:
Smart contacts at Ethereum have risen to almost 2 million compared to the previous month, where network deployment costs are still low. In March, the Ethereum network reached 1,971,632 million, which means an increase of 75% compared to February.It is worth noting that this level coincided with the low cost of implementation on Ethereum, where developers spent an average of $ 11.6 thousand. This suggests that the popularity of the Ethereum platform is increasing, which means strong support for the upcoming Ethereum 2.0 upgrade.

Although in March, it rose to a record number of smart contracts, however there was no noticeable increase in the number of transactions, which may suggest that many contracts are not used or do not translate into increased user involvement.

The previous record level took place in November 2018, when the number of implemented contracts reached almost 1.5 million, after which it fell to an average of 670 thousand in 2019.In the Ethereum 2.0 roadmap, created by Ethereum's founder Vitalik Buterin, the network is configured to switch from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake. This mechanism can remove the scalability problem that currently discourages many programmers from deploying the network. Recent information on Ethereum 2.0 may prove to be a driving force that breathes new life into the popular blockchain platform.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD bulls has managed to push the price towards the level of $186, which is very close to the key short-term resistance level. This level was broken as the new local high was made at the level of $193.78 before the pair dive back under the resistance again. The nearest techncial support (intraday) is seen at the level of $178.25, but so far the ETH keeps bouncing from 38% Fibonacci retracement located at #183.07. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $209.89. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $164.45 and if violated, the price can drop to the level of $153.46.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $240.86
WR2 - $214.90
WR1 - $200.99

Weekly Pivot - $173.55
WS1 - $159.05
WS2 - $132.99
WS3 - $117.12


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 24 April 2020

Bitcoin rally amid the global coronavirus pandemic

Crypto Industry News:
About 75,000 BTC is added daily to long-term contract positions, according to data showing investor behavior. According to those presented by Glassnode monitoring resources from today, this month there was a significant increase in Bitcoin's position. These data show that the long-term investors of this cryptocurrency are in bearish mode, and are trying to buy coins at a price that they find attractive.

At current rates, investors add over 75,000 BTC to their positions every day. Meanwhile, according to Google Trends, there is a clear awareness among internet users about the upcoming Bitcoin halving, as well as the potential price increase that may result from this.

Earlier this week, the Coinbase exchange reported that it had seen an increase in Bitcoin purchases of $ 1,200. We remind you that this is the amount that was included in the stimulus checks for US citizens.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has extended the rally, broken through all techncial resistance and made a new swing high located at the level of $7,707. It is worth to notice, the high was made in form of a Pin Bar candlestik, co the temporary correction is expected towards the level of $7,386 or even $7,247. on the other hand, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $7,897 - $7,934.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $8,288
WR2 - $7,759
WR1 - $7,459

Weekly Pivot - $6,596
WS1 - $6,675
WS2 - $6,137
WS3 - $5,855


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.








Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 04.23.2020 - Major multi-pivot resistance level at the price of $7.200 is on the test, watch for potential downside rotation

Corona virus summary:


Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison said all members of the World Health Organization (WHO) should cooperate with a proposed independent review into the spread of coronavirus. (04.35) And the US government announced that it will assess whether the World Health Organization is being run the way that it should be. (02.30) Meanwhile Germany's Angela Merkel called the WHO an "indispensable partner" (08.55) and China donated a further $30 million to the organization, which is seeking more than $1 billion to fund its battle against the coronavirus pandemic. (10.02)


Technical analysis:
BTC been trading upwards. The price tested and rejected of the major resistance pivot at the price of $7,200. Be careful with buying into the resistance. My advice is to wtach for selling opportunities if you see any intrraday bearish pattern.


Trading recommendation:
Watch for potential selling opportunities and eventual breakout of the rising support trendline in the backgorund. There is potential for the downside rotation towards the levels at $6,770 and $6,465.

Stochastic oscillator is showing overbought condition and potential for the rotation to the downside.




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 23 April 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The blockchain banking solution, Dharma, has implemented a new feature called Social Payments that allows users to send US dollars to any Twitter handle. Today's Tweet explained that payments can be made regardless of geographical location or whether the recipient has a Dharma account.

Application users can make payments to Twitter handles directly from their wallet, as long as there are sufficient funds in their account. The next step is to resend the payment to the Twitter bot and tag the recipient for notification. Payment recipients must use the link sent by the bot to be able to set up a Dharma account and link it to their Twitter account in order to receive the money. However, as with all deposits on Dharma accounts, the balance will earn interest through Compound.

Dharma lists a number of potential applications that these opportunities offer, including the transfer of micropayments, cross-border charitable donations and the acceptance of business payments. It is not the first company to implement such a solution. In January, even Twitter itself was reportedly interested in integrating such a function, although a spokesperson at the time denied that it is currently under development.


Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair has tested the 50% of Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $168.25 and bounced significantly higher. So far the bulls has managed to push the price towards the level of $186, which is very close to the key short-term resistance level. The nearest techncial support (intraday) is seen at the level of $178.25. The market participants await for a decisive breakout in either direction so it is worth to keep and eye on the next develpomnent on the Ethereum market. The key short-term support is seen at the level of $164.45 and if violated, the price can drop to the level of $153.46.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $240.86
WR2 - $214.90
WR1 - $200.99

Weekly Pivot - $173.55
WS1 - $159.05
WS2 - $132.99
WS3 - $117.12


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 23 April 2020

Crypto Industry News:
US market analysts say Bitcoin will be the most attractive to US citizens who have not received $ 1,200 stimulus checks from the government.

When a lot of information confirmed the trend of investing stimulus checks in the purchase of Bitcoin, Gabor Gurbacs, director of digital assets at VanEck, said that those who were missed in receiving help from the government will continue to look for opportunities to invest in crypto. Instead of short-term investments, people will trust Bitcoin more for its value, stability in difficult times and independence.

His words appeared only a few days after the data suggested that US assistance money had already been directed to crypto investments. According to the Coinbase exchange, deposits at the full value of $ 1,200 increased fourfold.

Meanwhile, the United States is planning help worth over 69 million Bitcoins for small businesses. The new stimulus package assumes financing in the amount of USD 484 billion, which according to employers will take place in several phases and will last for many months. Others, however, are demanding regular assistance with regular disbursements of $ 2,000.

The overall impression among both Bitcoin users and consumers, however, suggests that $ 1,200 is insufficient compensation for job losses, income and other restrictions due to a coronavirus pandemic.


Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has tested and bounced from the main channel upper line and made a new local high at the level of $7,129. There is a Pin Bar candlestick pattern at the top of this move and now new swing high has been made, so the market can hover around this level for some time now. The momentum however is increasing and has reached the positive teritorry, so there is some strength in the last wave up. Please watch the level of nearest technical resistance located at $7,247 to invalidate the downward scenario.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $8,288
WR2 - $7,759
WR1 - $7,459

Weekly Pivot - $6,596
WS1 - $6,675
WS2 - $6,137
WS3 - $5,855


Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

What you should pay attention to when trading Bitcoin

Here comes another article on cryptocurrency, and what has changed over these days and what you should pay attention to. For 20 days in a row, this is how the Bitcoin price hovered, showing a variable fluctuation in the range of 6500/7000 (7500). In fact, this is a kind of stagnation in the recovery phase, which came to us after the general collapse. I do not think it is worth considering it as a certain phase of the movement, where there is a sacred meaning, since it is all very similar to a kind of stabilization process, just after sharp changes in the quote. This process cannot continue permanently, but it is not so easy to interrupt this turn. Here you need a push that will encourage market participants to take action, whether it is the growth of the bitcoin exchange rate or a decline.

Crypto enthusiasts try to think optimistically in terms of future development, hence various theories arise. So, one of the most popular assumptions is the growth of the bitcoin exchange rate based on the upcoming halving. The topic is outdated, but if you monitor Google Trends, you will be positively surprised by how popular this query is. Thus, if there is a demand, then there will be a supply, which will serve as a kind of platform for changing the existing mood.

What are they waiting for?

Everyone is waiting for growth, but they are considering it in terms of gradually increasing the cost. To be more specific, we are talking about 18 months after halving, where the bitcoin exchange rate will consistently update the existing highs. In other words, the borders of stagnation are broken (6500/7000(7500)), after which the current year's maximum is 10522, the crypto's maximum is 13868, and then the historical maximum is 19891.

It is not necessary to run headlong and buy cryptocurrency because these are just theories. Personally, it would be an ideal development if we received a kind of support based on halving, which would limit the decline in the exchange rate. With this support, the exchange rate will break out of stagnation and form a new round of recovery.

Halving is great, but it's not just the market that lives by it. So, the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) Dallas conducted a study on the impact of the news background on the behavior of the cryptocurrency exchange rate.

According to the study, a pattern was found among a number of news items, so the negative dynamics on the course provoked topics related to restrictive actions:
- introduction of general prohibitions on working with digital assets;
- introduction of regulatory restrictions on working with cryptocurrencies;
- news about the fight against money laundering through the use of digital assets and the financing of terrorism;
- introduction of restrictions on working with cryptocurrencies in regulated markets. Positive dynamics was demonstrated by news about topics:
- creating a legal framework;
- consideration of ETFs;
- adaptation of cryptocurrencies in the residential environment;
- ICO and IEO.

Now we understand that despite the Fed's lack of direct ability to regulate the cryptocurrency, the regulator is able to exert pressure, which will entail a change in the exchange rate.



Current development and prospects

Looking at the current trading chart, we see the price movement in the range of 6500//7000//7500, where the activity gradually decreases, and the concentration of forces is in the value of 7000. It is worth noting that the compression process occurs within the boundaries of 6500/7500, which does not violate the integrity of the range, and the existing process can lead to the effect of a spring, which will already help provoke acceleration and breakdown of the established boundaries.

On one technical analysis, you will not get far when trading cryptocurrency, thus you need a push from the outside. In this case, we are referring to external factors, and one of the strongest interactions with the market is just halving bitcoin. It turns out that if there are no other factors for comparable strength until May 12, then the BTC quote will continue to fluctuate within the range of 6500//7000//7500.

We can assume that in the case of a positive reaction to the external background and fixing the price above 7500, the recovery process can be resumed with a gradual move to the levels of 8500-9500.



General background of the crypto market

Analyzing the total market capitalization, we do not see any drastic changes, this is understandable, the market is drifting, and the total capitalization is hovering around $ 200 billion.

If we look at the volume chart in general terms, we will see that the variable ceiling remains at $ 210 billion, and the subsequent resistance is around $ 260 billion.



The index of emotions, also known as fear and euphoria of the crypto market, is at the level of 19, which is considered a low indicator. Market participants are reluctant to join the trade and are still under pressure from the external background, as well as the March collapse of the BTC exchange rate.



Indicator analysis

Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a buy signal relative to the main time periods, but it is worth considering that due to the fact that the price fluctuation is conducted in a side channel, the indicators of technical instruments are variable.






Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020