Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 16 January 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The form from January 14 submitted by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) confirms that Bitwise Asset Management has demanded to withdraw its application for the Bitcoin ETF. This is the second major ETF withdrawal in recent months after similar VanEck activities.

Bitwise submitted an application for ETF registration in January 2019. In March of the same year, he published the Bitwise Report on the stock volume, claiming that 95% of the trading volume was fabricated. The findings were used by the company as an argument for the SEC to accept the ETF. Apart from most of the volume, the company maintained that BTC prices were mainly on regulated exchanges.

The reasoning did not convince the committee, which rejected the offer in October 2019. However, a month later the regulator decided to revise its decision.

This is another step towards our long-term goal of introducing Bitcoin ETFs to the market, and Bitwise plans to resubmit the application in a timely manner.


Technical Market Overview:
Despite the Shooting Star candlestick pattern made at the top of the wave up at the level of $8,836, the Bitcoin bulls are still making pressure in the price. The local technical support has been tested already. Please notice, that this high was made on lower momentum than the previous one, so there is a negative divergence present. Before, the pair har tested the technical support located at the level of $7,601 - $7,581 and bounced higher, which means, the support had been recognized by the market participants as valid and they wanted to resume the recent uptrend. Moreover, there is no possibility to move lower at the price of Bitcoin unless the support is clearly violated.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,744
WR2 - $9,058
WR1 - $8,561

Weekly Pivot - $7,905
WS1 - $7,428
WS2 - $6,754
WS3 - $6,270


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

What to watch out for Bitcoin? Will it rise?

The cost of the first cryptocurrency has grown by more than $ 2000 since the beginning of the year. So, are we really seeing the first signs of a recovery in the trend? The question is actually interesting, but it's worth starting with the details, and so, a very dull downward move lasted for about 190 days, which cut the Bitcoin rate by half. The base point was designated in the range level of $ 6550, where a peculiar flat 6900/7750 was formed above it, and the clock component changed only on January 6 of this year, reflecting to us a series of pulsed rising candles and fixing above $ 8000.

What is the reason for the change of interest? There are quite a lot of theories here, one of the most interesting ones says that the stage of fear that has taken place since the beginning of autumn 2019 has waned. This theory has the basis of law, where the period of the end of 2018 is taken as a basis, having in some way a similar model for the development of prices.

In terms of fundamental data, they are inclined to believe that 2020 has good growth prospects. Therefore, many believe that Bitcoin halving can significantly increase the demand for the first cryptocurrency due to a conditional deficit that will be caused by an adjustment in the complexity of the development of BTC. Let me remind you that in the history of halving with the first cryptocurrency, it happened twice already, where the BTC rate increased 200 times for the first time, and in the second process of the development complication, the growth was 700%, which, of course, says a lot.

However, I don't think we should expect a similar repetition, because the times are not the same, and a kind of excitement is gone. In any case, this event [halving], which is scheduled for May 2020, will attract special attention and, possibly, new market participants, due to which local growth will occur.


Current development and prospects

This week, a quite significant event for the crypto industry, the launch of Bitcoin options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [CME Group]. Trading volumes left 55 contracts at the start, or 275 BTC [$ 2 million (call option)], which is many times more than at the start of Bakkt. Moreover, volume data delighted many experts, dubbing what was happening as an important event for market development and a signal for investors

[1 option contract of the European type corresponds to 5 BTC. The minimum price step is 5 index points corresponding to $ 25]

The reaction of the market was positive, in particular, to Bitcoin. The upward pace was set, and the BTC rate has gained more than $ 500 in weight since the beginning of the week.

It is likely to assume that the current stumbling block is the psychological level of $ 10,000, which still needs to be reached, but also to break through. But, it is extremely early to talk about growth until this moment comes, as well as about changing the clock component.

It is worth considering such a moment that a kind of fear of further weakening of bitcoin is still preserved in the minds of traders and this may inhibit possible growth. Thus, you need a kind of engine and at least a clear fixation of prices higher than $ 10,000.


The general background of the cryptocurrency market

Analyzing the total market capitalization, we see a gradual recovery, where volume indicators have already reached the values of November last year, and currently amount to $ 240 billion

If we consider the volume chart in general terms, then the current ceilings are 254 ---> 272 ---> 281 ---> 320 ---> 356 ---> 385 billion $.


The index of emotions, aka "fear and euphoria" of the cryptocurrency market, is surprisingly at a very comfortable level for this season at 54p. For example, the index was 24p on a similar date last year, which was an extremely low rate.


Indicator analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators relative to all the main time intervals are literally unanimously inclined towards a further ascent, which confirms the current market sentiment.





Performed by Gven Podolsky
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 01.15.2020 - Watch for potential downside on the BTC due to overbought condition

Industry news:
The last several years have brought great economic difficulties for the country of Venezuela, whose native currency, bolivar, suffered a great loss of value due to extreme inflation. At the same time, cryptocurrencies were finally leaving the shadows and becoming a big trend around the world. This is why the country decided to create its own, national cryptocurrency backed by its oil supplies — Petro.

The coin was supposed to represent a safe haven from the nearly-worthless bolivar, but also to help circumvent US sanctions. However, Petro, which was launched in 2018, failed to attract users as Venezuelans were more interested in Bitcoin and altcoins. Now, Maduro has announced that he plans to bring the Petro back.


Technical analysis:


BTC is trading in the upward trend but the price is trading near the previous day high at $8.888, which is sign that buying looks risky at this stage.

Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies and use 5/15 minute time-frame for better timing. Downward targets are set at the price of $8.567 and $8.473.

MACD oscillator is showing decreasing on the upside and the slow line is on the downside.

Resistance level is set at the price of $8.888

Support levels are set at the price of $8.567 and $8.473.





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin at the first resistance! Long or Short?
15 January 2020

Bitcoin has increased significantly in the latest days and it seems ready to jump much higher after the failure to stabilize below the 23.6% retracement level. Yesterday's impressive rally has signalled that the bulls are very strong in the short term, but BTC price has reached a very important upside obstacle, the 50% Fibonacci line.

You can see on the daily chart that BTCUSD has escaped from the descending orange pitchfork, a retest and a rejection from the upper median line (uml) could send the rate much above the 50% Fibonacci line and above the 38.2% retracement level.


On the second chart, I've drawn an ascending pitchfork (dark blue) to catch the current upside movement. BTCUSD rallied after the bullish engulfing and now is trading right above the sliding line (SL). If the price stays above the SL, the outlook remains bullish and it could resume the upside movement, we have a potential target at the median line (ML) of the minor ascending pitchfork, above $10,000 psychological level.

A rejection from the 50% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line) and a drop below the SL will signal that BTCUSD will come back towards the upper median line (uml) and maybe it will reach the LML as well. The critical support level remains at the 7711 level, a drop below this level will open the door for more drops.





Performed by Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 15 January 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Supreme Court of India has decided to adjourn the full hearing of the high-profile case against the Reserve Bank of India regarding bank transactions with cryptographic companies.

In a press interview, Kashif Raza - co-founder of the Indian Crypto Kanoon platform - summarized what the case was about, and argued that the news of the delay does not have to discourage the local cryptographic community.

According to earlier reports, Indian cryptocurrency exchanges and other industry companies met with a moratorium on banking services because the Indian central bank RBI introduced a ban on transactions of banks with cryptographic companies in April 2018. Since the controversial ban on RBI came into force in July 2018, both public and sectoral petitions have been brought to court because of unconstitutionality.

As Kashif noted, this case was a combination of various previous petitions and was brought to court by the Internet & Mobile Association of India (IAMAI).

IAMAI is a non-profit industry body that is tasked with expanding and improving the value-added online and mobile services sector and appealing to the government on behalf of consumers, shareholders and investors from the internet industry.

Raza emphasized that the main argument in the case remains an appeal against the ban for constitutional reasons.

The local community is awaiting further development, and in the meantime, attention has been paid to evidence of significant losses for the Indian cryptographic industry.


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair broke through all of the technical levels located on its way to the high at $170.42. This price rally looks like a classic pump made on extreme volumes, which indicates that some part of the market participants has been actively selling the ETH on the way up. The rally has ended with a High-Tide Doji candlestick pattern and since then the bears are trying to push the prices lower to test the broken levels. The next technical support is seen at the levels of $156.77, $150.94 and $146.94.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $163.70
WR2 - $155.20
WR1 - $149.53

Weekly Pivot - $140.92
WS1 - $136.16
WS2 - $127.09
WS3 - $122.67


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 15 January 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) - the national financial regulator - proposed lowering the leverage limit for cryptocurrency margin trading from 4x to 2x. The FSA announced the proposed measure on January 14 in a cabinet ordinance - an official ordinance issued along with the new law.

The proposal, if adopted, would be the first case for the Japanese government to regulate the margin trading ratio. According to Nikkei, the state has not previously made any laws.

The FSA allegedly plans to enforce the order in April, when the revised version of the Financial Instruments and Stock Exchanges Act enters into force. The agency accepts public comments on the regulation until February 13.

Margin trading allows investors to use borrowed funds to increase their potential profits, but it is also a high-risk risk activity because it introduces the possibility of losses exceeding the investor's initial investment. According to Nikkei, the FSA aims to protect investors against "excessive speculation and the risk of losses caused by volatility."


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made another marginal higher high at the level of $8,836 (at the time of writing the analysis) and a Shooting Star candlestick pattern has been made at this level. Currently, the bears are testing the local technical support at the level of $8,573, but the corrective move might extend lower towards the level of $8,405. Please notice, that this high was made on lower momentum than the previous one, so there is a negative divergence present. Before, the pair har tested the technical support located at the level of $7,601 - $7,581 and bounced higher, which means, the support had been recognized by the market participants as valid and they wanted to resume the recent uptrend. Moreover, there is no possibility to move lower at the price of Bitcoin unless the support is clearly violated.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,744
WR2 - $9,058
WR1 - $8,561

Weekly Pivot - $7,905
WS1 - $7,428
WS2 - $6,754
WS3 - $6,270


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 01.14.2020 - Major resistance zone at the price of $8.500 on the test, watch for selling opportunities

Industry news:
Chair Heath Tarbert told Cheddar Monday that his agency is helping create a regulated futures market that investors would be able to "rely on" for better "price discovery, hedging and risk management."

"By allowing [cryptocurrencies] to come into the world of the CFTC," investors can better access trusted and regulated financial products, improving overall confidence in the asset class, according to Tarbert. "It's helping to legitimize [digital assets], in my view, and add liquidity to these markets," he said.

The marketplace for cryptocurrencies derivatives is expanding. Although still dominated by unregulated exchanges, it is gradually facing greater competition from regulated alternatives. Bakkt launched physically-delivered bitcoin futures last September and CME, which first launched bitcoin futures in December 2017, opened trading for options contracts Monday.


Technical analysis:


BTC has been trading upside with strong momentum and the price reached the level of $8.600. Anyway, there is solid resistance zone from $8.500-$8.800 and my advice is to be careful with long opportunities cause potential for downside correction.

Watch for any bearish pattern around the resistance zone for potential sell position and target at $7.750. In case of the upside breakout of $8.800, watch for long opportunities on the dips with the target at $9.500.

MACD oscillator is showing new momentum up and slow line is in bull mode...

Major resistance level is set at the price of $8.800.

Support levels and downward targets are set at the price of $8.420 and $7.750..




Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 14 January 2020

Crypto Industry News:
The development organization Ethereum Classic warns the public about a possible fraud that is trying to exploit users the day after altcoin has finished its hard fork.

In today's tweet published by ETC Cooperative, it was stated that they removed the alleged fraud called "EAgharta" referring to the ETC hard fork "Agharta".

"Needless to say, EAgharta is a complete scam, probably from the same people who did something very similar in Atlantis. ETC Agharta did not cause the emergence of new" Agharta tokens. "They are just trying to deceive you," they wrote in a tweet.

It seems that the hard fork encouraged the scammers behind EAghart to try to use this event and market the fake "Agharta" tokens. To warn users, ETC Cooperative published a screenshot of EAgharta's Twitter and its requests to users to "safely apply for Ethereum Classic #Agharta."


Technical Market Overview:
The ETH/USD pair has made another small rally above the swing high located at the level of $146.94 and made a local high at the level of $149.91 (at the time of writing the analysis). The Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern that was responsible for creating the Double Top price reversal formation has been invalidated, but the high was made on lower momentum than the previous one, so there is a negative divergence between the momentum and market behavior. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $139.90 and $138.10, the next technical resistance is seen at the levels of $150.95 and $151.37.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $163.70
WR2 - $155.20
WR1 - $149.53

Weekly Pivot - $140.92
WS1 - $136.16
WS2 - $127.09
WS3 - $122.67


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.






Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 14 January 2020

Crypto Industry News:
A United States District Judge ruled that a previous sanction ordering Craig Wright to hand over half his Bitcoins to Dave Kleiman is not valid.

Judge Bruce Reinhart issued a ruling in August on sanctions in a lengthy court battle over an alleged 1.1 million Bitcoin mined by Wright and Kleiman as part of a partnership in the early days of Bitcoin, shortly after Wright claimed to have invented it.

According to court documents filed with the US District Court in Florida on January 10, Judge Beth Bloom ruled that Reinhart's previous sanction order was inappropriate.

As previously reported in August 2019, Reinhart ruled that Wright had lied in presenting forged documents and recommended that he hand over 50% of the more than 1 million Bitcoin he allegedly extracted with Kleiman. However, a recent ruling states that this sanction was not appropriate because the recognized facts (that Wright had an equal partnership with Kleiman) do not specifically relate to the discovery of Bitcoin.

However, Judge Bloom concluded that Wright had not made good faith efforts to comply with the injunctions and should continue to pay attorney fees at Kleiman Estate. Last November, Kleiman Estate filed an application for legal costs of $ 658,000. This caused Wright to react immediately with a counterattack, asking to be thrown out because both the hours worked and the hourly rate were "unreasonable".


Technical Market Overview:
The BTC/USD pair has made another marginal higher high at the level of $8,520 (at the time of writing the analysis) and continues to an uptrend. Please notice, that this high was made on lower momentum than the previous one, so there is a negative divergence present. Before, the pair har tested the technical support located at the level of $7,601 - $7,581 and bounced higher, which means, the support had been recognized by the market participants as valid and they wanted to resume the recent uptrend. Moreover, there is no possibility to move lower at the price of Bitcoin unless the support is clearly violated. The bulls have temporary control over the market and the odds for another spike up are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $9,744
WR2 - $9,058
WR1 - $8,561

Weekly Pivot - $7,905
WS1 - $7,428
WS2 - $6,754
WS3 - $6,270


Trading Recommendations:
The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still down. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. There is a possibility that the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.







Performed by Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for 01.13.2020 - Watch for potential drop on the BTC and second downside leg to develop

Industry news:
As the Bitcoin price hovers around $8,100, having gone up over 12% in the year-to-date period, there is one question on the minds of many investors/traders: will today's launch by the CME Group of options on Bitcoin futures help the BTC price climb even higher?

According to data from CryptoCompare, Bitcoin is currently trading around $8,100, most unchanged over the weekend, but up 12.62% in the year-to-date (YTD) period:

On 12 November 2019, CME Group ("CME"), which owns "large derivatives, options and futures exchanges in Chicago and New York City using its CME Globex trading platforms", announced options on its Bitcoin futures contracts would be launching ("pending regulatory review") on 13 January 2020.


Technical analysis:


BTC has been trading sideways around the resistance at the price of $8.100. I still potential second downside leg to develop and test of the $7.710-$7.440.

MACD oscillator is showing positive reading with the slow line in flat position...

Resistance levels are seen at the price of $8.200 and $8.440

Support levels and downward targets are set at the price of $7.710, $7.440 and $7.000. Watch for selling opportunities...





Performed by Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2020