Cryptocurrency Analysis

[KeithFut]

You're surrounded around alot of emf radiation. You should check out proteckd.com to guard yourself from the negative emf side effects.

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for December 15, 2021

Crypto Industry News:

Tesla CEO Elon Musk believes that Bitcoin is not as good for daily payments as the meme-based cryptocurrency Dogecoin.

Musk compared the world's largest cryptocurrency to DOGE in an interview with Time Magazine, shortly after the publication named him the Man of the Year 2021.

"Bitcoin is not a good substitute for a trading currency. Even though it was conceived as a silly joke, Dogecoin is better suited for transactions. The total transaction flow you make with Dogecoin, like your daily transactions, has a much higher potential than Bitcoin," Musk said.

Tesla CEO stressed that Bitcoin is more suitable as a custodian, so investors prefer to hold it rather than sell it or use it for payment. "Bitcoin transaction volume is low and transaction cost is high," noted Musk.

On the other hand, Dogecoin is not as good as a means of storing value, Musk noted, noting that the cryptocurrency is "slightly inflationary". However, this "encourages people to spend money, not hoard it," he said.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $45, 560 as the price is getting away from the 61% Fibonacci retracement level. After the short period of local consolidation, the bulls attempt to bounce again, but so far they hit only the level of $48,707. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of $51,913 (Pin Bar high) and $53,333. The momentum is currently hovering just below the level of fifty on the RSI (14) indicator. Despite the recent complex and time consuming corrective decline in form of ABCxABCxABC pattern, the larger time frame trend remains up and only a clear and sustained breakout below the wave C low at $41,678 would change the outlook to bearish again.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $56,908
WR2 - $54,309
WR1 - $52,119

Weekly Pivot - $49,669
WS1 - $47,511
WS2 - $44,768
WS3 - $42,652


Trading Outlook:
The ABCxABCxABC complex corrective cycle might be terminated at the level of $41,678 and the market is ready to continue the up trend. According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $39,474 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $39,000 would be considered as a long-term trend change due to the lower low placement).









Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Crypto market update for December 15, 2021



Bitcoin made a new decline of $ 3,500 thousand

Bitcoin did not move from its place for almost the entire day on Tuesday. A day earlier, its quotes dropped by $ 3,500. Therefore, it is now still difficult to say that the construction of the corrective wave b has begun. After the cryptocurrency decreased by $ 27,000, the maximum deviation of quotes from the reached lows was $ 10,000. And this growth is almost not noticeable on the chart, since it is part of another movement, down by $ 12,000 on December 4. Nevertheless, we are counting on a clearer wave b.

The markets currently do not show any desire to buy Bitcoin, no matter what forecasts analysts and investors give, among whom there are very famous personalities. For example, Cathie Wood, who believes that Bitcoin is capable of growing to $ 500,000, only needs all institutional investors to invest 5% of their funds in this cryptocurrency. However, when studying the shares of her Ark Invest fund, it becomes clear that Wood is interested in such forecasts since the share price has been declining for several weeks in a row. Others are predicting a new growth of the first cryptocurrency, but it cannot even start a corrective wave at the moment.

The hash rate of the network has fully recovered after China imposed a ban on mining

Six months ago, Bitcoin experienced a shock when the Chinese authorities completely banned mining on their territory. According to various estimates, 60-70% of the mining capacity of the whole world was located in China. It was a serious blow to this cryptocurrency, from which it recovered very quickly. Its quotes dropped to $ 30,000 per coin, but later, with the restoration of the network hash rate, they grew and eventually updated the annual high. Now, analytical agencies have announced the complete restoration of the hash rate of the network after the events of six months ago. Only now Bitcoin is declining again, which is due to the end of the era of free money for the economy. Both the Fed, the ECB, and other central banks of the world may abandon support programs for their own economies in the coming months, so the cryptocurrency market is going through hard times right now. Investors are afraid that a more powerful decline will happen and are in a hurry to get rid of cryptocurrencies right now.

Moreover, Bitcoin does not have the dominance index at the moment that it had a year or two ago. Other cryptocurrencies are increasingly attracting the attention of investors as potentially more profitable over a long period of time. In this case, we believe that mining has fully recovered, especially at the expense of America, where most of the mining capacity is now located, will not help bitcoin to resume the increase in any way. As I said yesterday, there are still about 2 million coins left, and miners will receive less and less remuneration for bitcoin mining every year.



The upward section of the trend in its internal structure does not cause any doubts and looks complete. If this is really the case, then the formation of a descending set of waves has begun and continues. So far, we cannot conclude that even the first wave of a new downward trend has ended. Therefore, wave a can take on an even stronger and extended form. It is worth noting that Bitcoin is very dependent on the news background, as well as on the mood of the market. If the market decides to sell it, then nothing prevents the first wave from acquiring a much more extended form. Since the attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level was unsuccessful, the decline may continue with targets located around $42731 and $ 41394, which corresponds to 38.2% and 38.2% Fibonacci.







Chin Zhao
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ripple breakout attempt


Ripple was traded at 0.8083 level at the time of writing. It challenged a dynamic upside obstacle, but an upwards movement is far from being confirmed. In the last 24 hours, XRP/USD is up by 4.79% but is down by 0.73% in the last 7 days.

In the short term, Bitcoin moves somehow sideways, that's why Ripple seems undecided. From a technical point of view, the downside seems limited after registering a false breakdown with great separation below the 0.7 psychological level.


XRP/USD downside seems to be over


Ripple continues to pressure the downtrend line. It's still trapped within the down-channel pattern. As long as it stays near the downtrend line, a breakout is imminent. The level of 0.7428 stands as a near-term downside obstacle.

A valid breakout above the downtrend line may announce a potential leg higher. Still, staying under the downtrend line could bring a new sell-off anytime.


Ripple prediction

0.7428 - 0.6520 is seen as a demand zone. Staying above it and making a valid breakout above the downtrend line, escaping from the down channel may announce a new swing higher. Jumping, closing, and stabilizing above the downtrend line and staying above 0.75 could bring new buying opportunities with a potential upside target around 1.0.






Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin is teetering on the edge: How the current correction differs from the fall in May


Bitcoin is still very shakily balancing in the range between the support zone of 46,934.61 - 47,848.69 and the resistance of 51,697.58. On Monday, the lower limit stood, today it is also standing, which gives a chance for recovery.

But the scenario is very close in which the price may collapse into the region of $40,000 - $42,000 per coin. The main question that is now frozen literally in the air: are we already in a bear market?


Mass liquidations in the futures market

The capitalization of the global cryptocurrency market after the fall of bitcoin over the last day has decreased by 6.44% and is hovering slightly above $2.12 trillion.

During the previous collapse on December 3, there was a surge in the liquidation of bitcoin positions. Short positions in BTC futures worth $235 million and long positions in the amount of $846 million were forcibly closed. Then, in two days, the BTC spot price collapsed from $51,000 to $42,000. At the same time, on December 4, there was a collapse of open interest in bitcoin futures from $23 billion to $17 billion.


Fear of players in the spot market

Nevertheless, the last drop in the price to almost $45,000 on Tuesday did not entail similar liquidations. Notably, the spot market seemed more affected as lower trading volumes and higher market fear make investors skeptical about what to do next.

Now we see that even the sideways position in which bitcoin could move, as usual during periods of uncertainty, is a big question. Market participants try not to make sudden movements and, most likely, are waiting for new drivers.


A fall in December is not a fall in May.

Don't panic! Experts suggest comparing bitcoin's current price trajectory to the May drop in prices from a network point of view. The key difference between now and May is that strong hands are now buying from weak ones, while strong hands turned into weak ones in May.

In addition, if you look at the BTC HODL wave for +1 year, then approximately 54.6% of all coins in circulation did not move in +1 year. The indicator is currently down 8.8% from a local high of 63.4% set in September 2020. However, there are signs of a rise in the indicator that could indicate a BTC supercycle if the upward trend continues.


The Fed will help solve the dilemma

The results of the Fed meeting will be announced on Wednesday evening. Earlier, we mentioned a report by Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone that the Fed's decisions could affect Bitcoin and Ether.

But tomorrow, the rhetoric and tone of statements by the American Central Bank can determine the position of bitcoin relative to the support zone 46,934.61 - 47,848.69 and set the direction, perhaps even before the end of the year.









Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum could drop to $3,000 for three good reasons



Ethereum may continue its downward movement and fall as low as $3,000, and there are three reasons for this. The main altcoin hit its all-time high last month, and has dropped nearly 20% in a few weeks due to the market crash.

At the moment, Ethereum is holding at the turn of $4,000, and this is the most important support level, but there are already concerns that this support level will be broken soon. Ethereum will begin its impulse fall, which will be facilitated by further sales and panic in the market.


Bearish divergence

At the moment, the situation of interception of the initiative by bears can be observed on the market. Bitcoin fell by almost 30% in a month, and then the entire altcoin market turned out to be in bearish gloves. Many analysts predicted the glory of the hedge asset to the ether in relation to the price of bitcoin. However, according to many forecasts, the market will experience a bearish winter and the fall of Ethereum will continue.


The Fed

This week's two-day meeting will discuss the U.S. Central Bank's cut of more than $120 billion in asset purchases per month to increase solvency and flexibility.

This could serve as a negative wake-up call for Ethereum. The Fed said in November that spending on bond purchases would be cut by $15 billion a month, and the final stimulus would end in the summer of 2022.

This meeting of the Federal Reserve System may negatively affect the price of Ethereum. In March 2020, the Fed's monetary policy contributed to an increase in the price of ether by more than 3,000 percent, now we can observe a diametrically opposite situation and a fall in the price of the main altcoin.

Also, at Tuesday's meeting, the Fed will briefly announce its economic forecasts for 2022 and will give its forecast for the formation of cryptocurrencies next year.


Bearish pattern

At the moment, we can observe a situation where Ethereum should exit the ascending wedge - this is a bearish pattern that can be observed when the price of an asset goes up, and two ascending trend lines become the catalysts for this. If the Ethereum price is near the top of the wedge, then the asset may sink and break through the milestone below the lower line of the pattern. This may mean that Ethereum will correct and go down, and this will be an impulse signal of large price losses.







Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signals for BITCOIN (BTC) on December 14 - 15, 2021: sell below $49,795 (200 EMA)



BTC is trading below the 200-day EMA and oscillating within a downtrend channel formed since December 4. Yesterday Bitcoin fell to the low of 45,624. From this level, it is rebounding with 49,795 and 52,425 (21 SMA) as short-term targets.

It is probable that the current technical bounce of the BTC could push the price to the resistance zone of the 200 EMA. Around this zone, we would have a good opportunity to sell with targets -1/8 of Murray located at 43,750.

The eagle indicator has reached the extreme oversold zone which could be a sign that Bitcoin could have a recovery for the next few days. As long as it remains below the psychological level of 50,000, momentum and a false break will be considered as a correction to resume a downward movement.

On the contrary, a daily and decisive close above 52,425, where the SMA of 21 is located, could be a clear sign that Bitcoin would be facing a recovery and could rise to the level of 56,250 (1/8) and up to the resistance of 2/8 at 62,500.

Given that each time the US dollar is strengthening and the Fed is determined to contain the inflation that is increasing every day, this could be a headwind for cryptocurrencies. Since cryptocurrency crosses are trading against the dollar, a stronger dollar could weaken Bitcoin and we could see a drop to the psychological level of $ 30,000 in the medium term.

Our trading plan for BTC is to buy above 46,500 and wait for it to hit the level of 50,000, to sell again with targets towards 43,750. The eagle indicator is giving a positive signal. Therefore, we can take advantage of the technical rebound seen in these hours.


Support and Resistance Levels for December 14 - 15, 2021
Resistance (3) 52,125
Resistance (2) 49,481
Resistance (1) 47,553

Support (1) 44,830
Support (2) 43,750
Support (3) 42,564


A trading tip for BTC on December 14 - 15, 2021
Sell below 49,795 (200 EMA) with take profit at 43,750 (2-1/8) and 40,000, stop loss above 51,250.







Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Wave analysis of BTC/USD on December 14, 2021


Breaking news from the world of cryptocurrencies:

Binance and Coinbase account for 55% of global web traffic to cryptocurrency exchanges. The Binance website attracted 34.4% of visitors, despite the difficulties caused by regulatory pressure and the introduction of mandatory user identification. Binance is followed by Coinbase, attracting 19.7% of visitors. Thus, just two exchanges attract more than half of the world's traffic.

Florida USA will host a number of initiatives for the development of cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has invited businesses to pay government duties in digital currency. He also said the state will launch new blockchain technology programs for Medicaid payments and vehicle entitlements, with the participation of the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicle.

BTCUSD, H1:



For the BTCUSD cryptocurrency pair, we are witnessing the formation of a new downward corrective trend, which takes the form of a simple zigzag [A]-[B]-[C]. The first part of this zigzag—impulse wave [A]—is now fully completed. Corrective wave [B] is in the formation stage, which can take the form of a double combination and will consist of three main sub-waves (W)-(X)-(Y).

Most likely, sub-waves (W) and (X) are already completed—double and triple zigzag. If our assumption is correct, then soon, the market will start building a bullish active wave (Y). Its completion is expected near the level of 55,050.00, where correction [B] will be equal to half of impulse [A].

In the current situation, it is possible to consider opening buy deals in order to take profit at the end of correction [B].

Trading recommendations: buy from the current level, take profit 55,050.00.







Roman Onegin
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin's growth potential has been exhausted: "whales" fix profit, BTC moves to local low

The cryptocurrency market had high hopes for the fourth quarter of 2021. The historical context and fundamental factors, along with the ATH update in November and the growth of on-chain activity, pointed to a rally to $100k per coin. However, as a result, a situation has developed when the cryptocurrency is at a crossroads: BTC can go to local lows and start a bear market or continue the accumulation period, after which it can reach new highs. I am inclined to the second scenario, but there is no denying that there is practically no hope of updating the maximum in 2021.

Uncertainty of the "whales"

The main reason to believe so is profit-taking by "whales," whose indicators correlate with the fall in the asset price. This pattern was noticed by Saniment experts, and this indicates the uncertainty of long-term holders and large capital in the continuation of the bull market. It is likely that this is a temporary phenomenon, but the profit-taking of more than $1.8 billion over the past week confirms the fact that the bulls will not be able to accumulate the volumes necessary for growth.

The decline in the activity of large companies indicates the lack of prospects for the growth of BTC, since it was the institutional audience that was behind the rally of the coin in 2021. In addition, additional volumes of cryptocurrency exert pressure on the price, and therefore I expect a retest of local lows in the next two weeks.



Current situation of BTC/USD

As of 11:00 UTC, the main cryptocurrency has fallen in price by 3% over the day and is trading around $47.3k. Bitcoin failed to develop bullish momentum and go beyond the range of $48k-$50.5k, where the line of the 50-day simple moving average and resistance of $50.2k passes. At the same time, the bears' positions strengthened, thanks to which the BTC/USD quotes managed to move one step closer to a decline in the range of $42k-$45k.

The coin is trying to recover, but consolidation above the 0.236 Fibo level with the upper limit at $48.6k looks unlikely due to the lack of buyer activity and a decrease in the accumulation rate after Monday's decline. Bulls are trying to make a bullish breakdown of the "descending triangle," which in theory can develop momentum and help the price gain a foothold above $48k.

Technical indicators support this mood of buyers, but the current consolidation period is characterized by the implementation of false breakouts, so it is not worth drawing conclusions ahead of time. I assume that the cryptocurrency will spend the rest of December in the wide range of $40k-$50k with sharp changes in local price movement ranges.



What's next?

Given the absence of a fundamental positive background and active demand, Bitcoin will end 2021 under the auspices of a long accumulation with parallel attempts by bears to bring the price to the local bottom. This is indicated by the daily chart, where the dominance of bears and timid attempts of bulls to win back the fall are visible. I do not see any prerequisites for the interception of the initiative by buyers, on the contrary, I assume an aggravation of the profit-taking process as we approach the end of 2021.

The final week will be especially difficult, as I expect increased pressure from sellers to close the monthly candle below $45k. The final point of the corrective movement is the mark of $39.7k-$40k, where the line of origin of the previous wave of growth passes.



At the same time, I expect a resumption of demand for Bitcoin in early 2022. Most likely, the growth of interest in the coin will be associated with the next stage of the global economic crisis after the collapse of the Fed's emergency stimulus program.

In the short term, the asset has already played back the negative effect of the "closure of the printing press." Now we should expect investors to reorient to riskier assets due to the lack of prospects for classical financial instruments.

With this in mind, the second half of the first quarter of 2022 may become a period of a powerful bullish rally of the coin. The first half of the three-month period will be spent on stabilization, restoration of quotes, and accumulation of the necessary volumes of BTC coins.






Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin remains vulnerable to more downside.

Bitcoin continues making lower lows and lower highs remaining inside the bearish channel it has created after the top in early November. Price remains vulnerable to more downside as long as price is below $50,000.



Red lines - bearish channel

Price is sliding inside the bearish channel. The RSI in the Daily chart is scratching the oversold levels. Resistance by the upper channel boundary is at $50,000 and a break above it will be a bullish sign for Bitcoin. Despite making a new lower low, selling pressures were not strong enough to push price below $45,000. As long as price is above $40,000, there are increased chances of a major reversal to the upside. Bears need to be cautious and protect their gains if bulls recapture $50,000.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021