Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Weekly Bitcoin analysis.

Bitcoin thus far has managed to make a strong rise from $29,000 to $68,900. We consider that this upward move has been completed and it is over. Price is now most probably in a corrective phase and we expect the downward pull back to unfold over the coming weeks.



Black lines- Fibonacci retracements

The scenario where the bullish trend continues and price continues making higher highs and higher lows has in my view the lowest chances of success. The most probable outcome is for price to continue its pull back. So far price has retraced 38% of the entire upward movement. In previous posts we mentioned that a bounce towards $59,000 or even $63,000 is justified. However this does not cancel our primary scenario that Bitcoin is expected to move towards the 50% or even the 61.8% retracement levels before resuming its up trend.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin vulnerable to slide further


Bitcoin slipped lower after its failure to make a new higher high. In the short term, the pressure remains high, so we cannot exclude a potential drop. It was traded at 56,437.63 at the moment of writing far below 59,099.64 yesterday's high.

Technically, the crypto signaled that the upside is limited and that the price could come back down trying to accumulate more bullish energy before really developing a strong leg higher. In the last 24 hours, BTC/USD is down by 3.06% and by 5.02% in the last 7 days.


BTC/USD UPSIDE SEEMS LIMITED



BTC/USD registered only false breakouts above the 58,933 static resistance and now it is traded back below the weekly pivot point (56,712.93). It has also failed to stabilize above the 38.2% retracement level.

Stabilizing below the pivot point could signal a deeper drop. the former low of 55,918.80 stands as the immediate downside obstacle. Dropping and closing below it may activate a further drop towards the weekly S1 (53,915.99).


BITCOIN PREDICTION
In the short term, it's trapped between 55,918.80 and 58,933 levels. A downside breakout from this range could signal a further drop and could bring new short opportunities. On the other hand, moving sideways followed by a valid breakout above the 58,933 and through the Descending Pitchfork's upper median line (uml) could signal an upside continuation.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin: Could Digital Gold Make Microstrategy And Michael Saylor Trillions In Five Years?



MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor is one of Bitcoin's biggest proponents, as well as one of the smartest and most determined investors.

The other day, his company bought another 7,002 bitcoins for its portfolio. Microstrategy now holds 121,044 bitcoins worth approximately $7 billion.

The company's portfolio is the largest of any major corporation worldwide holding Bitcoin, more than Tesla and Square combined. The company has a market capitalization of approximately $7.5 billion, and Bitcoin accounts for about 90% of the total portfolio.

At the moment, Saylor's capitalization is estimated at about 3 billion, and he has about $1 billion worth of bitcoin.

He also owns almost 24% of MicroStrategy, which is approximately $1.25 billion.

If Bitcoin rises and shows historical highs, then the company's share price soars, and in the case of fall, the share price falls accordingly with Saylor's wealth.

The company, along with Saylor, must continue to acquire bitcoins if he wants to stand on a par with such billionaires as Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.

Bitcoin price has risen by almost half a percent every day for the past 10 years. After halving, an important reduction in payments to miners in 2024, the price of bitcoin may rise to $1,000,000, then MicroStrategy will be valued at more than one hundred billion dollars.

Bitcoin will be worth $1 million. The company's capitalization will be approximately $140 billion. Microstrategy will need to make a purchase of about 3-5 million more bitcoins over the next three years for Saylor to become a trillionaire by 2025. That's roughly $200-250 billion to be spent on Bitcoin. However, companies cannot do without buying Bitcoin worth at least $1 billion, it is important to do this with the company's inherent speed and determination.







Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: Two Important Conditions for Maintaining a Bull Market


Bitcoin fulfills the forecast of one of two sideways during Thursday's trading.

The price of BTCUSD has reached the support of the 55,842.84 - 59,283.67 corridor and now a local moment of truth should come: its support will withstand or the consolidation range will expand.

When going down from the sideways 55,842.84 - 59,283.67, the main cryptocurrency may fall to $53,000 - $52,000 per coin, after which it is likely to move to a recovery

The market is still bullish but very uncertain

The support area near $52,000 - $53,000 per bitcoin remains a strong support and a critical "divide" between a bull and a bear market for bitcoin.

The technical consolidation that is taking place now suggests that investors are either sad or not sure about the future. Although, in this case, we are talking more about retail players.

Short-term and long-term BTC holders are mostly in the black

The November price movement brought significant losses to investors, largely equivalent to the March sales.

However, when looking at what happens to the supply level of short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH), the market actually looks healthier compared to September, when bitcoin fell almost 23% in two weeks.

In the current situation, out of 18% of the supply of short-term holders, almost 50% comes from profit. This is 60% more than in the September sale.

Likewise, LTH's timely sales allowed them to make the most of the record-high price point of $67,500. Consequently, now only 5.8% of their supply is at a loss.

It is also worth noting that this month, the network has lost more than 6% of all active addresses. Investors are trying to sit silently and take their bitcoins from the market. Their confidence, according to experts, will recover if the market shows more bullish sentiment.

Critical Conditions for Bitcoin Bull Dominance

From a technical point of view, everything is more or less clear now: the cryptocurrency should hold above $52,000 - $53,000 per coin. This scenario of sideways consolidation has not lost its relevance for many days, starting on November 18.

The only question is, what does it take to transition to recovery? It is important that a fundamental driver appears on the market that will give confidence to cryptocurrencies and an impetus to the price. So far, there are only concerns about the Omicron coronavirus strain, and that is rather sluggish, although the factor is negative.

It is difficult to predict what could become a catalyst for new growth. But it is clear that the market is waiting for this driver. A reason is needed, as has happened many times during the reversals in July and September. In the meantime, we are waiting for it, the only thing that remains for analysis is technical guidelines.









Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for BITCOIN (BTC) on December 02 - 03, 2021: sell below $58,729 (200 EMA)



The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating below the EMA of 200. Since November 16, BTC fell and is now trading below the 200-day moving average. This represents a negative signal that could lead BTC to fall to the psychological level of 50,000.

The sideways movement we see on the 4-hour chart is likely to be a build-up to gain more buyers. Thus, BTC price could climb up to the resistance of 2/8 Murray at 62,500. A confirmation of the break above the 200 EMA (58,729) could accelerate the rally to 2/8 (62,500).

Conversely, as long as the consolidation continues below 58,730, BTC is expected to trade within the downtrend channel and may reach the bottom of the bearish channel around 52,800.

A technical rebound around 52,000 is expected, since the level coincides with the support of the bearish channel and is located around the psychological level of 50,000.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin fails to consolidate above 58,729, it is likely that it will resume its main bearish movement and may fall below the SMA of 21 located and 57,259. The goal in the short term will be the psychological level of 50,000.

Our trading plan is to wait for a pullback through the 200 EMA at 58,729. At this level, it will be a good opportunity to sell with targets at 52,800 and up to the 0/8 of Murray located at 50,000.


Support and Resistance Levels for December 02 - 03 2021
Resistance (3) 61,128
Resistance (2) 60,069
Resistance (1) 58,488

Support (1) 55,848
Support (2) 24,789
Support (3) 53,148


A trading tip for BTC December 02 - 03, 2021
Sell below 58,729 (200 EMA) with take profit at 52,800 (bottom of bearish channel) and 50,000 (0/8), stop loss above 59,500.







Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for December 02,.2021 - Potential for the further drop

Technical Analysis:


BTC/USD has been trading downside due to the breakout of the contraction in the background. There is potential for the further drop.


Trading recommendation:
Due to strong downside movement in the background and breakout of the contraction I see potential for the downside movement.

Watch for selling opportunities on with the potential downside objectives at $55,200 and $53,400.

Stochastic oscillator is showing fresh bear cross, which is another sign for the weakness.

Resistance is set at the price of $57,400






Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

G20 countries establish unified cryptocurrency market regulations: how it may affect bitcoin quotations?


After bitcoin's most important bullish rally, there was disturbing news that the market may take with a degree of skepticism. Following India and the US, the G20 countries decided to create a set of common rules to regulate the cryptocurrency market. The decision to develop and approve common mechanisms for controlling the activities of digital asset market participants was unanimously adopted by representatives of the G20.

The news involves the creation of a regulatory framework that governments will use as a guideline to regulate cryptocurrencies in local markets. There is no other concrete data on the document, but it is likely that there will be a local aggravation of the correction, as the market reaction is always impulsive, and the regulation is always perceived negatively. This news can hardly impact the strength of the long-term uptrend, but it is not the only announcement about the upcoming tightening of crypto market regulation.

The main cause for concern is US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's meeting with representatives of the Senate Banking Committee. The official assured that the legal standards of anti-money laundering and anti-financial crime agencies are appropriate for regulating cryptocurrency companies that do not conduct transactions with clients' digital assets. Considering how the market reacted to the adoption of the law that equated cryptocurrency exchanges with brokers, we should expect a similar reaction, as the news is similar in context.

I assume that in the longer term, the growing control of the cryptocurrency industry may be an important argument in expanding the institutional and personal opportunities of bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. This conclusion can be drawn from the SEC's position and the words of the regulator's CEO Gary Gansler, who sees the prospects of the digital asset industry but believes investors are unprotected due to the lack of clear regulation. Even though the regulator has only protected most investors from tens of thousands of percent profit in 10 years of lack of legal control over bitcoin, regulations are necessary.

First of all, it will significantly expand the investment opportunities of bitcoin and launch the eagerly awaited spot ETF. One month after the launch of the futures counterpart, we can see that the market understands that the potential of these marketplaces is strikingly different. In addition, legislative regulation of the cryptocurrency market will greatly accelerate the adoption of digital assets as financial instruments and means of payment.

Despite the obvious bright sides, the market reacted negatively to the news, which as of 1 p.m. had led to a 2% drop in total market capitalization. Bitcoin has fallen to $56,600 amid the negative news, which is a worrying sign. The asset is still unable to break out of the trading range of $53,000-$59,700, where it has been hovering for two weeks. The cryptocurrency needs to confidently stay above the lower boundary of the current trading range. Bitcoin once again rebounded from $55,700 and recovered to the middle of the area. I assume that now the market could try to make an impulse breakthrough of $60,000 when BTC starts to approach the upper boundary of the range.



On the hourly chart, everything is going to break the lower boundary, as bitcoin formed the triangle pattern. At the same time, technical indicators are declining: MACD has dipped below zero and the stochastic oscillator is forming a bearish cross, which indicates a weakening of the upward momentum. Taking this into account, we may see either another retest of $55,700, which is likely to end with a breakdown and further rebound, or the market will immediately start a massive buyback and the price may break through $60,000 during bullish momentum.








Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Wave analysis for BTC/USD on December 2, 2021


BTC/USD, H1 timeframe:


The formation of a simple bearish zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) continues. Following the completion of the downward impulse wave (A), the price made a reversal and rose in the correction (B). It seems that the correction (B) takes the form of a zigzag A-B-C. Within the framework of this zigzag, waves A and B, impulse [1]-[2]-[3]-[4]-[5], and a correction was built.

We are now in the initial part of the C impulse, which may end around the level of 61215.00. At this level, the correction value (B) will be 50% of the wave (A). Usually, in zigzags, corrective waves have similar proportions with respect to momentum.

In this case, one can consider opening buy deals from the current level in order to take profit at the specified level.


Trading recommendations:
It is recommended to buy from the current level and take profit at 61215.00.






Roman Onegin
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Crypto exchanges need to register with the SEC




On Wednesday, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler called for increased oversight on crypto trading platforms and offered new insights into his priorities in his quest to tackle the digital coin industry.

Gensler reiterated that digital asset exchanges must register with the SEC, a move that could bring firms more investor protection and compliance costs. He said the agency is open to working with platforms on sensitive issues such as holding tokens, but also said that firms could face enforcement action if they don't comply with the rules.

"Work with us," the SEC chief said in response to questions from former SEC chairman Jay Clayton during the Digital Asset Compliance and Market Integrity Summit. "These platforms need to come in, get registered and come within the investor protection remit," he added.

Gensler immediately took a tough stance on cryptocurrency after becoming the SEC chairman in April. Some of his harshest remarks were about the platforms that traded coins, which also sparked the ire of industry leaders.

This news pushed Bitcoin down 1.9% and Ethereum down 2.10%. Other tokens also showed a decline.







Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

ETH ready for powerful bullish run amid record investment growth. When will it break ultimate resistance?

The crypto market is regaining its footing slowly but surely following a correctional decline. Meanwhile, most digital tokens are trading higher. Amid a full-fledged recovery, Ethereum is asserting strength almost to the same degree as Bitcoin. Here is the proof. ETH has recently leapt in value by 21% for the first time since 2017. Besides, the altcoin has surged by 11% whereas Bitcoin has risen by a modest 3%. The notable difference is visible in market sentiment. BTC is about to enter a recovery phase. Crypto investors have already pushed ETH out of a trading range. Now the digital token is ready to update a new all-time high.

There are weighty reasons to believe that Ethereum is now on the way to an extremely powerful rally in the last few years. There are some preconditions for that. Importantly, we see a massive inflow of investments from institutional investors. According to Santiment, as of December 2, large ETH holders own 44% of all altcoin emission that equals 52 million tokens. Over the recent week, large crypto investors, who hold wallets with 100K to 10 million tokens, purchased another 676K of ETH coins. It indicates robust demand for Ethereum. All in all, the behavior of institutional investors signals that the powerful rally is about to emerge. The first sign was an impulsive surge above the upper border of the trading range between $4,100 and 4,300.

The next stage for Ethereum will be a bullish breakout of the ultimate resistance zone. This is a tough challenge and the crypto needs some time before this zone will be conquered. The price is facing two important obstacles at $4,800 and $4,860 which serve as strong resistance. The first obstacle is 0.786 Fibonacci level where the sellers are confident, judging by upper shadows of the previous candlesticks. The second obstacle to overcome is the level in close proximity to the all-time high. The token still has to fight for that high.



As of 11:00 today, Ethereum made a failed attack on 0.786 Fibonacci level and dropped off. Here I see an important bullish move because the price tried to decline below 0.618 Fibonacci level, but the buyers entered the market bought ETH during its decline. As a result, the red candlestick formed a long tail downwards. This is positive sigh because the token is holding very close to the key zone. Support at $4,500 does allow ETH to tumble. At the same time, the formation of an uncertain doji candle indicates an equal balance between the bulls and bears. In the meantime, the price is fluctuating between $4,500 and $4,660. In this context, I assume that the altcoin is set to consolidate for the most part of this trading day. Technical indicators confirm my forecast. MACD is moving higher, albeit in the flat market. Stochastic is still oscillating at around 75.



To sum up, the market conditions for Ethereum is clearly bullish. The token has taken a pause after a failed attempt to break the ultimate resistance zone for a further bullish trend. I suppose that the consolidation period will be over later today. Afterwards, we could expect an impulsive growth beyond the ultimate resistance zone. The market sentiment is the key for the rally. The bulls have set the stage for a strong upward move, having accumulated record volumes of the popular digital token. Ethereum is more likely to break the ultimate resistance in the same way as it used to exit the flat market between $4,100 and $4,300. I foresee the prospect that ETH will make a pause at the psychological level of $5,000 that will be followed by a further rally.






Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021