Cryptocurrency Analysis

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for December 2, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
Russian Federation President, Vladimir Putin, expressed his criticism at the investment forum "Russian Calling" in Moscow. According to a local news site, the president made the following comments:

"Nothing is backed up and the volatility is colossal, so the risk is very high. We also think we need to listen to those who talk about this high risk," he said.

Putin called for more monitoring and regulation of cryptocurrencies and pointed out that some countries around the world are seeing significant adoption of digital currencies. Currently, cryptocurrency regulation in Russia is still in its infancy. While the government is considering introducing a central bank digital currency, at least eight federal laws and five legislative codes need to be changed for the digital ruble to take effect.

In addition, there are no cryptocurrency mining laws in the country. This has led some to argue that $ 2 billion in cryptocurrency mining revenue is generated annually in Russia, but no taxes are paid. Due to the lack of a legal framework, the use of cryptocurrencies has increased among ordinary Russians, with transactions exceeding $ 5 billion a year.


Technical Market Outlook
The Bitcoin bulls are ready to resume the up trend again, but for now the market is consolidating in a narrow range after the recent bounce from $53,333. The recent local high was made at the level of $59,195, so in order to confirm the up trend continuation bulls must break through the wave X high located at $60,013. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $55,748 and $53,306. The larger time frame trend is still up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $65,476
WR2 - $62,564
WR1 - $59,328

Weekly Pivot - $56,242
WS1 - $53,008
WS2 - $49,857
WS3 - $46,541


Trading Outlook:
The ABCxABC complex corrective cycle might be terminated. According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $52,943 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $52,000).








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for December 2, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
China's repression against cryptocurrencies extends to the metaverse and NFT tokens.

Speaking at the national summit on financial security, Gou Wenjun, director of the anti-money laundering (AML) unit at the PBoC, highlighted the risk of leaving new trends in the cryptocurrency ecosystem unregulated, such as the NFT and the metaverse. He argued that while people would use these digital assets for privacy and wealth appreciation, they are also vulnerable to being used for illegal purposes such as money laundering and tax evasion.

The rapid pace of innovation in the cryptocurrency world requires greater requirements for governance and risk management, said the head of AML, adding that the isolated nature of crypto, NFT, and real-world metaverse-based elements could be used as a money laundering tool.

In a second step, Gou said China should strengthen its monitoring and analysis of digital asset transactions. He proposed that banks and payment services that provide fiat-to-crypto gateways should authenticate senders and recipients with real names, while improving the ability to identify suspicious transactions.

The PBoC official suggested improving the application of new technologies and establishing a digital asset transaction tracking system and a scene tracking system. Such a system would use artificial intelligence, machine learning, and other technologies to tag accounts that carry out transactions with probed addresses.

Finally, Gou stated that he is open to improving cooperation between financial intelligence agencies around the world to form an international coalition to fight cryptocurrency crime.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair has broken above the short-term trend line resistance seen around the level of $4,481 and is currently testing the breakout from above. A bounce towards the recent local high made at the level of $4,782 is welcome, so the up trend continuation had been confirmed. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $4,435 and any violation of this level would invalidate the test and put the bears back in control of the market. The larger time frame trend is still up and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $4,876 (last ATH).

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $5,126
WR2 - $4,890
WR1 - $4,581

Weekly Pivot - $4,237
WS1 - $3,938
WS2 - $3,595
WS3 - $3,100


Trading Outlook:
The ABCxABC complex corrective cycle might be terminated, so the next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for December 02, 2021



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
Bitcoin might be on its way towards all-time highs above $69,000 mark in the next several trading days. The crypto dropped through $53,500 zone over the last week and produced a bullish reversal candlestick pattern (Morning Star). Bulls were able to push through $59,000 high almost taking out initial resistance around $60,000 mark. High probability remains that Bitcoin has carved a meaningful bottom around $53,500 and that bulls are now determined to push through fresh highs.

Bitcoin is puling back and is trading around $56,500 mark at the time of writing. The pullback could extend further towards $55,000 mark before Bitcoin finds support again. Bulls would be inclined to push the price through fresh highs aiming for the levels above $69,000, thereafter. Ideally, prices should settle above $53,500 mark, to keep the above bullish structure intact.

Also note that the crypto has bounced off the new channel support trend line and fibonacci 0.50 retracement of the recent upswing between $40,000 and $69,000 respectively. Until prices stay into the buy zone of its channel support, the above bullish structure prevails.


TRADING PLAN:
Potential towards $70,000 against $50,000.

Good luck!





Oscar Ton
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Ethereum is ready to rally; next bull run could be the most iconic




Ethereum is now gearing up for a new bull run and even greater scalability. The cryptocurrency shows one of the best growth results for the year in the crypto segment.

Altcoin has grown more than 10 times since last year and the market crash. Analysts are confident that this is just the beginning of a large-scale growth. If you look at the on-chain indicators, then several positive factors show that Ethereum is just starting to warm up for further upward movement.

Analysts believe that Ethereum will soon supplant Bitcoin not only in terms of capitalization, but also in terms of the value of the asset for the masses. Initially, when Ethereum was launched, there were 72 million coins in the public domain in 2015.

Now Ethereum has more than 135 million unique addresses and 118 million coins in circulation, thus offering a real vein for developers of tokens for financial applications, DeFi and NFT.

Since the launch of the blockchain, there have been about 70 million addresses, now we are seeing such a picture that there are over $118 million in block rewards for more than 135 million registered wallets.

Also, only 81% of members have at least 1% of their starting balance. More than 9% are inactive, which means that over 60% have increased their Ethereum holdings.

At the moment, Ethereum smart contracts account for about 27% of the total supply and are worth approximately $145 billion in Ethereum.

They are the key to the smooth operation of the largest DeFi ecosystem in the world. Over 27% of Ethereum's supply is in DeFi Apps.

Ethereum continues to gain momentum and update its all-time highs. This is due, in particular, to the massive outflow of Ethereum from exchanges to cold wallets.

This means that investors are reluctant to sell, and this speaks even more about the value of Ether. More than 50% of the general circulation of Ethereum did not move anywhere, but were stored in staking protocols. Investors prefer to stake their coins, only 20% of the circulation of coins is active.






Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Wave analysis and trading tip on BTC/USD for December 1, 2021

BTCUSD, H1:



According to Elliott's theory, a downward simple zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) is being built for the BTCUSD cryptocurrency pair.

For most of November, the price moved in a downward direction within the bearish wave (A), which took the form of a simple five-wave impulse 1-2-3-4-5. At the moment, it looks completely finished. An upward corrective wave (B) is currently in the process of building, which may take the form of a simple zigzag A-B-C.

Impulse wave A and downward minor retracement B are likely to be fully completed. Thus, growth in impulse C can be expected in the near future.

Perhaps the price will rise to the level of 61,215.00, at which the value of wave (B) will be equal to half of the impulse (A). The probability of achieving this ratio is high.


Trading tip: buy from the current level, take profit 61,215.00.







Roman Onegin
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin: When Will Spot BTC ETF Be Approved?

The cryptocurrency market has been working for a long time and seems to have forgotten that the first bitcoin futures ETFs in the United States were allowed in October.

Investors' attention has long since shifted to other events. Meanwhile, the approval of spot ETFs could be a new catalyst for Bitcoin to take off and renew all-time highs.


SEC HAS "NO REASON" TO REFUSE TO CREATE SPOT BITCOIN ETFS
At least that's what Grayscale Investments thinks. The asset manager argues that the SEC "has no reason" to allow investment in the derivatives market while prohibiting investment "in the asset itself."

Recently, the SEC has refused several companies, including VanEck, to open spot exchange-traded bitcoin funds. While Grayscale considers this to be "discriminatory," it is also awaiting approval for its application to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot fund.

Citing reasons such as the strong demand for physically-backed products, Dave LaValle, Global Head of ETFs at Grayscale Investments, previously argued:

"At Grayscale, we believe that if regulators are comfortable with ETFs that hold futures of a given asset, they should also be comfortable with ETFs that offer exposure to the spot price of that same asset."


SEC DECISIONS ARE DUBIOUS, AS ARE THE RISKS OF SPOT BTC
In its letter, Grayscale reiterates that Bitcoin is not a "security." This means that there are no prerequisites for registration under the Investment Company Act of 1940.

The asset manager questioned the SEC's previous deviations, which were attributed to risks of fraud and market manipulation. The firm said the rejection order "unfairly discriminates against BTC and its shareholders" and violates the Administrative Procedure Act (APA).

Grayscale argued that the investor risks associated with spot and futures exchange-traded BTC products are "indistinguishable." Also adding that "unfair" treatment is more likely to "harm, rather than protect, U.S. investors."


NOT IN THE USA, SO IN CANADA: THERE IS ALWAYS A WAY OUT
But, not all institutions are waiting for the SEC to decide to approve a spot ETF and find other options. For example, the largest asset manager in the United States, Fidelity Investments, launched its first bitcoin spot ETF in Canada. It will be called the Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF and will be traded under the ticker $FBTC. The fund will buy physical bitcoins on the market and issue shares against them.

The crypto community lashed out at SEC chief Gensler for deliberately approving ETFs based on futures rather than spot ones. Many argue that the reason for this decision was that the futures market is easier to manipulate than the spot market.

Bloomberg ETF analysts had previously predicted that the SEC would likely approve a spot ETF by the first quarter of 2022. If such shifts occur, we may well be able to see an update of historical highs for BTCUSD, even if the end of the year is not so optimistic.


BTCUSD: TWO SIDEWALLS
In the meantime, bitcoin, paired with the dollar, skillfully bounced off the sideways resistance 55,842.84 - 59,283.67 and did not maintain Tuesday's growth. The assumption that the consolidation will continue is justified for now.

But the boundaries of the technical range are not completely clear. If the sideways support of 55,842.84 - 59,283.67 is broken, then the corridor may expand to the area near $52,000 per coin. Even so, the market is still bullish.







Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Trading signal for Ethereum (ETH) on December 01 - 02, 2021: buy above $4,687 (7/8)



Ethereum (ETH/USD) had a strong rally in the last two days. So, its price has gained more than 20% and is trading at $ 4,690 at the time of this writing. ETH is expected to continue its upward trend in the next few hours to the psychological level of $5,000.

The price of Ether in daily charts is above the 21 SMA and 7/8 of Murray located at 4,687. It could be a positive signal with targets towards the psychological level of 5,000 where the line of 8/8 Murray is located.

On the other hand, consolidation below 4,620 could signify a bearish move and could challenge the strong support of 6/8 and the bottom of uptrend channel around 4,062.

A daily close below the psychological level of $4,000 will confirm the start of a downtrend. In this case, Ether will have as its objective the level of 3,750 (4/8). If this level is broken, the price could fall to the level of 3,312 (200 EMA).

Since ETH is correlated with BTC, it depends on the price of Bitcoin and how it reacts. A sudden BTC drop to the $ 50,000 level could weaken Ether that could lose its accumulated gains in recent days. However, a consolidation or an uptrend will help ETH.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy above 4,687 with targets at 5,000. On the other hand other hand, if Ether closes below 4,620, sell with targets at 4,383 and up to 4,062. On the contrary, if it consolidates above the 21 SMA at 4,383, we can buy with targets towards 4,687 and 5,000 (8/8).


Support and Resistance Levels for December 01 - 02, 2021
Resistance (3) 5,214
Resistance (2) 4,983
Resistance (1) 4,804

Support (1) 4,570
Support (2) 4,162
Support (3) 4,062


A trading tip for ETH December 01 - 02, 2021
Sell below 4,620 (7/8) with take profit at 4,383 (21 SMA) and 4062 (uptrend line), stop loss above 4,750.





Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin ended November on a bearish note: how will this affect the global bullish trend

Bitcoin managed to update its historical maximum and survive a light correction by end of November, which is incomparable with any other for the period of 2020-2021. Although November closed with an uncertain red candle, the situation cannot be called bearish. The coin has undergone an important period of stabilization and liquidity collection since the ATH update. In addition, there are still several interesting formations on the charts that promise great gifts for the New Year tree for all participants in the cryptocurrency market.

However, first I will summarize the small results of November for bitcoin. This rundown is necessary in order to summarize what happened to the first cryptocurrency in November and what to expect from it in December.

On November 10, Bitcoin updates its all-time high at $69k, after which it undergoes several waves of impulse correction, provoked and aggravated by the news agenda. At the same time, throughout November, the technical indicators of the cryptocurrency most likely indicated a period of consolidation and "tug-of-war," therefore, we did not see broad impulse movements (except for those provoked by fundamental factors). As a result, the bears managed to get a slight advantage, thanks to which the price closed $4.5k lower than it opened.

It is worth noting here that a significant contribution to this was made by the chairman of the Fed, who announced a reduction in the timing of the withdrawal of incentives, which bitcoin investors perceived negatively.

In general, the situation remained uncertain throughout the month, and a slight downward price deviation was predictable given the ATH update (one PlanB expert removes a meager analytical tear). Perhaps December will be a bullish ending to a difficult, but in general, fateful year for Bitcoin. My first argument is a similar situation in September-October 2020. Then, on the monthly timeframe of Bitcoin, a "bullish engulfing" pattern was formed, after which the price began a powerful bullish ascent, repeatedly updating the historical record. We see that in 2021, the engulfing pattern also formed in September-October. And given the cyclical nature of the BTC market, it can be assumed that the situation will be similar this year.



On the daily timeframe, a global bullish pattern has formed, with a potential around $75k. The chart shows the figure of the "cup and handle" technical analysis, the potential of which predicts bitcoin to update ATH above $70k. Following this pattern, a "bullish pennant" has formed, the potential of which also points to the $70k- $75k zone. These are two global bullish signs, confirming the assumptions about the approaching main stage of the bull market.



Probably, only part of December will fall into the stage of a strong bullish rally, as the head of the Fed and the uncertainty of some institutional audience stretched the BTC recovery period, and therefore I will wait for impulse attempts to break through the key barrier around $62.5k, where the 0.618 Fibo level passes. A confident bullish breakdown of this area and consolidation over it may be the main signal to the market's readiness to update the price maximums.








Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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Bitcoin remains on track to our short-term $63,000 target.

Bitcoin is trading around $58,000 and price is forming higher lows. Price has potential to push towards $63,000 where we find important Fibonacci resistance. Since bottoming around $53,000, we mentioned that it was time for Bitcoin to move higher or at least make a short-term bounce towards $63,000.



Black lines - Fibonacci retracements

Blue lines -bullish divergence

Yellow rectangle - resistance

Blue rectangle- target if short-term resistance is broken

The RSI provided us with the first reversal warning. Price bounced initially towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement and now it is time for a move towards the 61.8% level. Resistance is at recent highs at the 38% Fibonacci level and breaking above it will be another bullish signal that will push price towards the 61.8% level. The bullish RSI divergence made us confident of a possible reversal and we are now on top of that reversal. Support is found at $56,000 and next at $53,000. Bulls do not want to see price break below $53,000.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

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BTC analysis for December 01,.2021 - Potential for the breakout of the cluster

Technical Analysis:




BTC has been trading upside today but I see potential for the further upside movement and breakout of the cluster at the price of $59,900.


Trading recommendation:
Due to oversold condition in the background there is potential for the further upside movement.

Watch for buying opportunities on the pullbacks and potential for test of $60,000 and $62,250.

Stochastic is showing fresh bull cross, which is another sign and confirmation for the upside rotation.

Key support based on the daily time-frame is set at the price of $53,200






Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021