Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin Bounced Above $57k But Correction Will Continue: Where Will BTC Bounce To Move To New Highs?

Bitcoin remains within the framework of a strong corrective movement; a local rebound should not be misleading. In the near future, the price will continue to be in this area and the probability of a subsequent decline is much higher than the chance of a rebound above $60k. Despite this, positive signals are visible on the charts of the cryptocurrency, which portend the most powerful bullish wave in the last six months.

As of 11:00 UTC, Bitcoin is trading in the region of $57k and has fallen in price by 3% over the past day. It also recorded a weekly drop of 13% with trading volumes in the region of $31 billion.

The news background continues to remain neutral, and the reaction of the retail audience is the main catalyst for the drop in Bitcoin quotes. However, despite local sales, there is no massive profit-taking among the main BTC audience, which is also a bullish signal.

At the same time, the coin needs to continue its recovery through price correction to deeper levels. As of November 22, the price has reached the middle of the liquidity range, which should be fully utilized.

Taking this into account, in the near future, it is necessary to be ready to buy additional coins, since the market gives a unique chance before a rather protracted rise to new historical highs.

The main signal for the imminent onset of a powerful upward trend is the "bullish engulfing" pattern, which was formed on the monthly candle for October 2021. The chart shows that the closing price of the monthly candlestick is at the level of historical highs, which has been repeatedly tested over the past six months.

By itself, the "bullish engulfing" pattern is a strong signal for growth, and taking into account the closure at the upper border of the previous months, one can expect a protracted rise that will last about a month.

It is also worth looking at a similar situation in October 2020. The chart shows a similar situation, where after a certain period of consolidation, the price also closes at the level of the previous candles and forms an engulfing pattern, which heralds the end of the stabilization period and the start of a new growth cycle.

With this in mind, we should expect a strong bullish rally from BTC in the near future, which will start with a rebound from the $53k-$55k area. The closest stop of the asset will be the $75k line, after which the asset will continue its upward movement to $98k.





The overall picture is clear and the market is approaching a bullish rally, but in a narrower time frame, the trend is still downward. The price successfully bounced off the Fibo level of 1.56 and continued its upward movement to the next corridor, around the $59.6k mark, where the 50 EMA also takes place.

In case of a bullish breakout, a strong support zone is formed here and the price moves further but rests against the 0.5 Fibo level, which should hold and reverse the price. Since all previous levels of the $56.6k-$59.6k range have been tested, the price will not encounter significant resistance in the downward trend.

In case of breakdown of the $56.6k mark and concurrently the Fibo level of 1.5, Bitcoin will start testing the main range of $52k-$ 55.5k, where, most likely, massive buying and the emergence of a bullish rally to the new ATH will begin.

However, it is worth closely monitoring the market sentiment during a decline, as excessive euphoria or fear can aggravate the price movement in any direction. This is fraught with a correction and a $52k decline, which casts doubt on the medium-term upward trend.

In general, Bitcoin looks very confident, and the market confirms its bullish plans, holding volumes even during a correction.








Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC analysis for November 22,.2021 - Downside continuation in the play

Technical Analysis:



BTC has been trading downside today but I see further downside continuation in the next period.


Trading recommendation:
Due to breakout of the rising trendline and the fake breakout of the 20-day high, I see potential for the downside continuation.

Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the downside target at $53,250.

BTC is trading below the 10,20 and 50 day moving average.

Stochastic is showing a bull cross but with no big reaction on price action, which is sign that cross is "weak:"

Resistance level is set at the price of $62,200






Petar Jacimovic
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin forms bearish channel.

Bitcoin is trading below $58,000 price level. Price is making lower lows and lower highs. Price has formed a bearish short-term channel.



Red lines - bearish channel

Bitcoin has so far made a low around $55,530. There is no bullish divergence by the RSI. As long as price is inside the bearish channel we remain bearish looking for a move lower. The upper channel boundary resistance is at $59,300. Bulls need to break above this level and stay above it in order to take over the short-term trend.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

El Salvador hosts "Bitcoin Week"



El Salvador hosted two events last week, which gave industry experts and cryptocurrency advocates the opportunity to celebrate their commitment to the digital token.

Wearing hats with the bitcoin symbol and T-shirts with the "buy the fucking dip" mantra, adherents who flocked to the country said they were not worried about recent price fluctuations and were investing in long-term plans.

The highlight of the week was the annual Bitcoin and Blockchain Conference, which is a three-day event that ended on Friday.

On Wednesday night, hundreds of bitcoin supporters plunged into Latin American rap in front of a live music scene, knocking over cans of beers and denouncing the US dollar. They also warned that hyperinflation may be observed soon.

Meanwhile, companies ranging from bitcoin ATM providers to crypto exchanges decided to open stands around the Teatro Presidente in El Slavador's capital city. Some of the attendees also planned trips to El Zonte, a beach town an hour away where Bitcoin first took off in the country.

But Bitcoin has been declining amid all the holidays, dropping in price every day except last Friday. It ended roughly 16% below its all-time high of nearly $ 69,000 earlier this month.

The revelers were not scared of this, and the conference speakers predicted that in the coming years, Bitcoin could reach $ 400,000 or even $ 1 million.



Jose Luis Guillen, CEO of Coincaex, said the recent drop should not bother people who plan to keep their tokens. "I don't worry about the price in the long term,"he said. "Bitcoin is in a 13-year-long bull-market," he added.

Gillen also noted that there was an increase in clients over the past year, thanks to rising inflation in the US. He also said their clients are getting older, now in the 45-65 age group compared to those in the 20-30 years that he saw initially.

Meanwhile, Jerry Schick said prices for goods and services in the United States have skyrocketed this year, so maintaining the recreational-vehicle park she owns became more expensive. She recounted that she started buying bitcoins in February and tried to buy cryptocurrencies between $ 20 and $ 100 a day to offset inflation. Her portfolio has grown 40% since then. "I think Bitcoin is the escape hatch for what is fixing to happen - the collapse of the US dollar, biological weapons, and extinction events," Schick said.

As for Colombian singer Yessenia Correa, blockchain technology is what brought her to Bitcoin. She has been speculating on price fluctuations since 2015, and the profit helped her pay for her studies at a music school. She said the price of bitcoin is high right now so she is looking at other cryptocurrencies under $ 1 to try to make money faster. She said "there are many options." Of course, many of these alternative coins have had their wild leaps, with huge ups and downs followed by spectacular drops.

Colombian programmer Jesse Rodriguez said he is still buying bitcoins, which he started experimenting with in 2014. Although Colombia does not suffer from the hyperinflation of regional counterparts like Venezuela or Argentina, the national peso is worth half of what it was seven years ago. This is why when Rodriguez does work for foreign clients now, he requests payment through Paypal and immediately converts his foreign wages into Bitcoin. "I don't even keep dollars anymore," he said. "In the early days, Bitcoin was demonized and no one viewed it as a means of payment, but here in El Salvador you can use it to pay at Starbucks, or to buy pupusas. It's a dream come true, and I hope the same happens in Colombia."

Bitcoin became legal tender in El Salvador on September 7, and the government launched its Chivo digital wallet, which was preloaded with Bitcoin. Citizens quickly began speculating, buying dips and selling draws with a wallet that quickly converts to US dollars. El Salvador's economy minister Maria Luisa Hayem said the move put the country "on the vanguard of technology."

Samson Mow, CSO of Blockstream, said: "A financial system built on Bitcoin is inevitable. You don't need the World Bank, you don't need the IMF. Bitcoin will save the day. This is the one chance we have to fix money."

Meanwhile, Pablo Gonzalez, co-founder of Bitso, commented: "Money is changing in the world."





Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 22, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
According to former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, cryptocurrencies could destabilize entire countries.

Moreover, it has identified cryptocurrencies as one of the top three challenges that will need to be overcome in the near future. In addition to cryptocurrencies, these are disinformation and artificial intelligence.

Hillary Clinton believes that the growing interest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may begin to negatively affect countries over time, which in the long run may translate into a threat to the entire global economy.

According to her, cryptocurrencies threaten the US dollar and its position as a global reserve currency, which is bad not only for the US but for the whole world. It is worth noting, however, that the BTC rate is rising along with the inflation in the US, and the recent announcement of record inflation was accompanied by ATH on the oldest cryptocurrency.

Thus, the reasons for the weakening of the USD should probably be sought in the uninterrupted printing of money.


Technical Market Outlook
The ETH/USD pair has retraced 50% of the last wave down and hit the level of $4,433 before the reversal happened. The market conditions on the H4 time frame chart and overbought again, so a deeper down move might occur, targeting the level of $3,954. Any violation of this level would accelerate the down move towards the key short-term technical support seen at $3,954. Please notice, that the larger time frame trend remains up and there is no indication of the trend reversal yet.


Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $5,566
WR2 - $5,159
WR1 - $4,752

Weekly Pivot - $4,357
WS1 - $3,938
WS2 - $3,564
WS3 - $3,134


Trading Outlook:
The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.








Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 22, 2021


Crypto Industry News:
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has warned Australian investors against speculating on digital assets, questioning the entire crypto sector.

During his speech to the Australian Corporate Treasury Association on Thursday, RBA payment policy chief Tony Richards gave an overview of DLT technology, crypto assets, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

In his speech, Richards asked questions about the validity and growth of cryptocurrencies in 2021, moving on to the amount of capital invested in memecoins such as Dogecoin and Shiba Inu. He also assured that public attention to cryptocurrencies in 2021 was "undoubtedly driven by influencers and celebrity tweets."

Richards outlined three scenarios in which "the current speculative demand may start to reverse".

First, he argued that investors may soon be "less fond of fads" and FOMO, and instead pay more attention to warnings from regulators and policymakers.

Second, he said governments around the world could seek to crack down on energy-intensive proof-of-work cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, and finally said tax authorities could seek to remove anonymity to reduce financial crime.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has bounce from the level of $55,748 and made a local high at $60,022. Nevertheless, the bulls are too weak to carry on bouncing and the market reversed back down. The momentum remains weak and negative despite the potential low of the wave 3/C. Only a sustained breakout above the level of $62,767 would change the outlook to more bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $75,582
WR2 - $70,896
WR1 - $64,654

Weekly Pivot - $60,209
WS1 - $54,112
WS2 - $49,298
WS3 - $43,190


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $52,943 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $52,000).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Wave analysis for BTC/USD on November 22, 2021



It shows that the initial part of a new bearish simple zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) is being formed for the BTC/USD cryptocurrency pair. In particular, a downward sub-wave (A) is forming.

It takes the form of a five-wave pulse 1-2-3-4-5. It is possible to notice descending impulse sub-waves 1 and 3, and corrective sub-waves in the form of zigzags 2 and 4.

Currently, we are in the final wave 5, which is expected to end at 54690.00. The price may rise after reaching the specified level as shown in the chart.

In the current situation, one can consider opening sell deals in order to take profit at the end of wave (A).


Trading recommendations:
It is suggested to sell from the current level and take profit at 54690.00.





Roman Onegin
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for Ethereum (ETH) on November 22 - 23, 2021: sell below $4,375 (6/8)


Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 4,323 below the 21 SMA and below the strong resistance at 4,375. We can consider this bounce from the low of 3,949 as a new opportunity to sell.

As Ethereum is trading below the 21 SMA located at 4,500, it indicates the possibility that it will continue its fall. Ethereum is expected to continue its correction movement in the next few hours towards 4/8 of murray at 3,750.

On November 18, it reached the low of 3,943, returning to the price levels of October 28. From this low, Ether has been rebounding until it reaches the strong resistance of 4.375, where it is located 6/8 of a murray.



On November 16, Ether entered a bearish phase. Because it is trading below the 21-day moving average, the short-term outlook is bearish. It is likely that over the course of the next few days it will be trading below this zone, targeting the 200 EMA located at 3,250.

The eagle indicator touched the 95-point zone on November 7 that is an extremely overbought mark. Ether is likely to continue trading below the high of 4,863 and could continue the correction in the next few days.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell between the two levels below 6/8 (4,375) or SMA (4,500), with targets at the psychological level of 4,000 and up to the level of 3,750 which represents a key support.

Ethereum is likely to continue is a bearish move for my next few days, as long as it remains below the 21 SMA and below the 6/8 murray.


Support and Resistance Levels for November 22 - 23, 2021

Resistance (3) 4,559
Resistance (2) 4,428
Resistance (1) 4,375

Support (1) 4,166
Support (2) 4,062
Support (3) 3,952


A trading tip for ETH for November 22 - 23, 2021

Sell bellow 4,375 (6/8) with take profit at 4,062 (5/8) and 3,750 (45), stop loss above 4,550






Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

XRPUSD tests channel boundaries but remains supported.


XRPUSD is trading around $1.06. With a recent low at $1.01, price recently tested the channel boundaries but the key support at $1 was respected. Price briefly moved out of the bullish channel but is back inside it. As long as this is the case, bulls have hopes for another move higher towards the major resistance of $1.13 and $1.24.



Red lines - bullish channel

Blue rectangle- support

Black lines - Fibonacci retracements

XRPUSD is making higher highs and higher lows since it started this upward move back in September around $0.85. Price so far has retraced 61.8% of the entire upward movement. The correction could already be over. In order to be more sure that a major low is in, XRPUSD will need to break above $1.24 recent highs. Failure to stay above $1 will be a sign that price will be vulnerable to another sell off towards $0.85 and why not lower.





Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin: when and how crypto industry will begin to regulate

Bitcoin failed to hold above the $60,000 area. The main cryptocurrency bounced off the resistance of 61,048.64 and, as expected, technically descended to the support of 55,842.84.

Against this background, events can develop as follows. The first scenario is an attempt to return to the level of 61,048.64. And from there, perhaps, to growth. The second scenario is a fall to the next support of $52,000 per coin.

In the meantime, we are waiting for things to calm down, I propose to shift our attention to long-term prospects, in particular, to issues of regulation of the crypto industry.


REGULATION OF THE CRYPTO MARKET: TO BE OR NOT TO BE

The question of taking control of the rapidly developing crypto industry has been raised a long time ago. Market participants fear that the authorities will shut off the air to the market and stop innovations. Now it is still unclear what measures to apply, and this was clearly shown by the situation with the infrastructure law.

On this occasion, an interesting article came across Bloomberg. Industry participants are proposing to take on this issue and engage in self-regulation.


WHAT IS A CRYPTOCURRENCY SELF-REGULATORY ORGANIZATION?

Major exchanges, including Coinbase and Gemini, and well-known investors such as Andreessen Horowitz, have pushed the idea of a Self-Regulatory Organization (SRO). They argue that the organization is better at overseeing a new and complex industry than traditional agencies that are now trying to apply old rules to a new market.

Proponents of this idea believe that the SRO could be more flexible in making decisions about the rules regarding new products since its members have both the experience and the resources.

"The job of a regulator is not easy when you're confronting something new. The question is, how do you get to an environment where the regulatory infrastructure can be more nimble?" said Greg Xethalis, chief compliance officer at crypto investment firm Multicoin Capital.


MARKET EXPERIENCE OF SELF-REGULATION

Self-regulation on Wall Street has a long history. SROs, which are funded and run by their own members, set rules, conduct audits, and impose fines. They have powers delegated by Congress and regulatory bodies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Several years after Congress formed the SEC as part of President Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal, the agency delegated some oversight of brokers and brokerage firms to the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD).

This organization has now become the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). Its functions include oversight and licensing, it now controls commodity brokers, and the major stock exchanges themselves are self-regulatory organizations.


WHAT FUNCTIONS WILL CRYPTOCURRENCY SRO TAKE ON?

A self-regulatory organization, according to Bloomberg, can take responsibility for suppressing at least some of the violations by outsourcing serious fraud to agencies such as the SEC.

For example, an SRO can decide whether a newly issued token should be classified as a security, commodity, or something else. Or deal with mundane tasks such as setting product disclosure rules or standards governing customer data management.

Its behavior will be monitored by the SEC and other agencies, who will have the final say if they disagree with the SRO's decisions.


WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR SUCH A REGULATION SCENARIO?

Most supporters of an SRO agree that such an organization would likely need an act of Congress allowing the SEC, CFTC, or other regulators to register and potentially delegate authority to it.

Such a bill could take years to pass. However, senators, including Wyoming Republican Cynthia Lummis, have said they plan to create comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation that could give SRO supporters the opportunity to bring their plan to life.






Ekaterina Kiseleva
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021