Cryptocurrency Analysis

[IFX_Selena]

Ethereum respects the 38% Fibonacci retracement level.


Ethereum broke out of the bullish channel and so far has made a 38% retracement of the entire upward move that started around September 22nd. At current levels I prefer to be neutral Ethereum as I believe we are not done with the correction yet.



Black lines -Fibonacci retracement

Price as we said above has managed to test the 38% retracement twice and both times support has held. This increases the importance of this support area and in case price breaks below, the chances of moving lower towards the 50% retracement will be high. I expect Ethereum to form a lower high over the weekend and resume the pull back next week.






Alexandros Yfantis
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Trading signal for Ripple (XRP) on November 19 - 22, 2021: sell in case of pullback from 1,0804 (SMA 21)



Since November 10, the price of Ripple (XRP) has been trading within a downtrend channel. In the European session, the bottom of this downtrend channel has been tested.

The bounce is expected to continue towards the 21 SMA located at 1,0804. A pullback around 3/8 from Murray and the 21 SMA will be a good opportunity to sell in the next few hours.

XRP price has settled just below the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA located at 1,1342 showing a bearish bias. Bearish pressure is likely to continue for the next few days towards the 2/8 murray support around 0,9766.

On November 18, the eagle indicator reached the extremely oversold zone of around 5 points. This means that XRP could recover some of the losses in the next few hours. We should wait for a good point to sell at the resistance of 1,084 or the 200 EMA at 1,1342.

A selloff in BTC pushing it to the psychological 50,000 level will likely cause XRP to drop due to the direct correlation. In that case, market participants can expect Ripple to fall to the psychological level of $ 1,00

On the other hand, a close on 4-hour charts above 1,1342 will be the start of a bullish move and we could expect a return towards the resistance level of 1,3360.


Support and Resistance Levels for November 19 - 22, 2021

Resistance (3) 1,1719
Resistance (2) 1,1318
Resistance (1) 1,0816

Support (1) 0,9823
Support (2) 0,9253
Support (3) 8,8789


A trading tip for RIPPLE for November 19 - 22, 2021

Sell in case of pullback at 1,0804 (SMA 21) with take profit at 0,9766 (2/8), stop loss above 1,10.







Dimitrios Zappas
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for November 19, 2021

Crypto Industry Outlook:

While the value of digital currencies has skyrocketed over the course of the year, Nvidia has not made any significant gains from its line of Cryptocurrency Mining Processors (CMPs).

According to Nvidia's third fiscal quarter report, the company's CMP sales fell 60% in the final quarter, with product line sales expected to decline even further in the fourth quarter.

In its quarterly financial report, Nvidia said CMP sales fell from $ 266 million in the second quarter to $ 105 million in the third quarter, which ended in October.

Nvidia says it grossed $ 526 million over the lifetime of the product, which is about 3% of its total revenue of $ 19.27 billion over that period. The company's total income was driven almost entirely by the gaming industry, data centers, and professional visualization equipment.

The past quarter did not differ in terms of CMP sales revenues. The company exceeded Wall Street's expectations, generating more than $ 6.5 billion in profit. Despite this, it failed to achieve the target profitability of its GPU line for cryptocurrency mining for the second quarter of 2021.

While CMP has yet to gain significant attention, Nvidia's profits have not been affected. Its value increased by almost 123% this year. Overall sales grew 50% year-on-year, with $ 3.2 billion in sales of graphics cards to gamers and PC builders in one quarter, according to a published company report.


Technical Market Outlook
The BTC/USD pair has terminated the ABC corrective cycle at the level of $55,566 and might bounce towards the technical resistance seen at the level of $62,188. The next big target for BTC is seen at $70,000, but the first target for the wave 5 is located at $70,508. Nevertheless, the wave 5 might had been terminated at the level of $68,987 already and now the market is developing the corrective cycle. The momentum is weak and negative, which supports the short-term bearish outlook for BTC. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $55,748.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $74,186
WR2 - $71,563
WR1 - $67,476

Weekly Pivot - $68,414
WS1 - $60,726
WS2 - $58,026
WS3 - $54,090


Trading Outlook:
According to the long-term charts the bulls are still in control of the Bitcoin market, so the up trend continues and the next long term target for Bitcoin is seen at the level of $70,000. This scenario is valid as long as the level of $52,943 is clearly broken on the daily time frame chart (daily candle close below $52,000).







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for November 19, 2021

Crypto Industry Outlook:

India appears to be taking an increasingly progressive stance on Bitcoin, especially considering the country is struggling to achieve a unified view of the categorization and legality of this new asset class.

Amidst a multitude of meetings, industry briefings, and growing banking problems, the country's prime minister speaks more and more loudly about cryptocurrencies.

During the Sydney Dialogue, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called on democratic countries to work together to make the best use of cryptocurrencies and Blockchain technology. It also stated that it should not be used for unethical purposes.

On Monday, at a high-level meeting, Modi spoke about cryptocurrencies in the context of money laundering and terrorist financing. The general atmosphere around the meeting suggested that strong forward-looking and progressive regulatory measures were in preparation.

The Government of India has previously taken steps to establish a solid regulatory infrastructure for a rapidly growing sector. He has had many discussions, including one with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of the Interior, as well as cryptocurrency experts and important industry players from India and beyond.

Despite the objective point of view expressed by some government ministers, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das remains unconvinced. The director reiterated his position yesterday that a cryptocurrency trading permit could jeopardize any financial system as it is not supervised by central banks.


Technical Market Outlook

The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $3,955 which is located just below the 161% Fibonacci projection for the wave 3/C. The bounce is being continued and the bulls are testing the technical resistance seen at the level of $4,146, just below the key technical resistance seen at $4,322. The weak and negative momentum still support the short-term bearish outlook for ETH. Please notice, the five wave impulsive increase might had been terminated at the level of $4,870 already and now might be the time for a deeper correction.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $5,138
WR2 - $5,019
WR1 - $4,756

Weekly Pivot - $4,615
WS1 - $4,352
WS2 - $4,211
WS3 - $3,960


Trading Outlook:
The next long-term target for ETH is seen at the level of $5,000. Nevertheless, in order to continue the long-term up trend, the price can not close below the technical support at the level of $2,906. The level of $1,728 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big impulsive wave up) is still the key long-term technical support for bulls. The level of $3,677 is the key mid-term technical support for bulls.







Sebastian Seliga
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin larger drop activated


Bitcoin dropped as low as 55,640, printing a new lower low. The pressure is high, so a further drop is imminent. Technically, the price dropped below major downside obstacles, confirming strong sellers and a larger corrective phase.

BTC/USD is trading at 65,317 level at the time of writing far below 60,978.39 yesterday's high. Its failure to stay above the 60,000 psychological level signaled a broader drop. In the last 7 days, BTC/USD is down by 12.93%, and by 5.88% in the last 24 hours.


BTC/USD DOWNSIDE OBSTACLE CONTINUE TO BE BREACHED!



BTC/USD has taken out the support zone between 59,953.74 - 58933.00 support area and now is traded below the descending pitchfork's median line (ml). As long as it stays under this broken dynamic support, Bitcoin could extend its downside movement.

Also, dropping below the 38.2% retracement level and under 56,425 low signaled that BTC/USD could extend its correction. Still, in the short term, the crypto could come back to test and retest the median line (ml) before dropping deeper.


BTC/USD OUTLOOK!

Bitcoin announced a corrective phase after registering a false breakout above the descending pitchfork's upper median line (uml) and above 68,564 former all-time high. Its current drop below the descending pitchfork's median line (ml) opened the door for a larger downside movement.

Testing and retesting the median line (ml), staying under this broken support may signal a potential drop towards the 50% (54,300.34) retracement level or even lower towards the 61.8% retracement level, around the 50,000 psychological level.

Coming back and stabilizing above the median line (ml) could signal that the downside movement could be over.





Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Cryptocurrency market update for November 19, 2021



MARKET DOUBTS THE ABILITY OF BITCOIN TO GROW FURTHER

Bitcoin saw another drop amounting to $2,500 on Thursday, November 18, recording a total loss of $6,500 over the past four days. So far, such a decrease in the cryptocurrency does not give reasons to panic and conclude "everything is gone." The cryptocurrency is declining, but this does not mean that it will collapse.

The current wave counting, which will be discussed further below, assumes that the upward section of the trend has completed its construction. If so, then the construction of a new, at least three-wave structure has now begun. And within this structure, Bitcoin can drop to $45,000 per coin.

Are there fundamental reasons for such a decline? In my opinion, there are, but the question is how the market interprets them. It's no secret that a lot depends on the mood of the players. If the majority of participants believe in further price growth, then whatever the news background, Bitcoin will increase in value.

However, I believe that the central banks of the world have taken a course to tighten monetary policy. And this means that investments, especially risky investments, will become less and less attractive.

The times when funds are placed on deposits will return again. But to do this, you first need to wait for a decrease in inflation and an increase in interest rates. Nevertheless, the first step has already been taken in the USA – the stimulus program has begun to decline.


BUYING AND OWNING BITCOIN HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED IN THE U.S.

Rumors about an infrastructure package of investments in the American economy have been circulating for a long time. And this week, US President Joe Biden officially signs this bill into law. And it is not just a statement of how much money will be sent and at what time. It also supplements tax legislation, in particular on cryptocurrencies.

Now, all transactions over $10,000 must be registered with the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS). All brokers and operators of the cryptocurrency market are now required to report such transactions to the IRS. Data on the sender and recipient of digital assets will also be provided.

Of course, some of the investors immediately dropped out, as they simply do not want to get into the field of view of the Tax Administration.

Also at this time, there are rumors about another bill that will amend the Tax Code. This is a new tax on retained earnings, which will be "written off" from the owners of assets if the asset itself has risen in price during the reporting year, even if it has not been sold by the owner. Such news reduces the attractiveness of many assets, particularly Bitcoin.



The current upward trend is still beyond doubt. The wave pattern was refined after the instrument made a successful attempt to break through the maximum of the assumed wave 3. Now the whole picture looks like an impulsive five-wave upward trend section, which began its construction on July 20.

However, the exit of quotes over the past two weeks from the reached highs may also mean the completion of the expected wave 5, which in this case will be shortened. At the moment, I'm leaning towards this option. Especially if Bitcoin makes a successful attempt to break through its past local low, which is now considered the minimum of wave 4.

If this assumption is correct, the decline will continue within the first wave of a new downward trend segment, which may take at least a month or two to build. And Bitcoin, at this time, will not strive to the $100,000 mark, but to the $45,000 mark. It is too early to talk about a complete collapse of BTC.





Chin Zhao
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

BTC to extend downward movement after falling below $60K

Bitcoin was steady above $60K owing to strong support at $58.7K where the price rebounded 3 times. The market rule, saying the more often a zone is tested, the more likely it is that the price breaks through it the next time it retests it, worked afterward. As a result, the quote fell to $58,2K. Moreover, BTC is expected to extend its downward movement. In other words, the coin is approaching the area where it may well bounce even from the support levels. To determine possible entry points, the movement of the cryptocurrency on the chart should be analyzed.

Consolidation is a period when a certain cryptocurrency is located within a narrow horizontal price channel. Usually, it indicates price stabilization or weakness of the trend (bullish or bearish).

Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical indicator that allows traders to determine the strength of a trend (bullish or bearish) and find out possible changes in the price movement. Owing to this indicator, it is possible to determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold. If it is a bullish trend, the indicator is located at 60. It indicates a high demand for the coin and the strength of the current upward momentum. When crossing this mark, the coin begins to move towards the overbought zone.

MACD (index of convergence/divergence of moving averages) is an indicator that allows traders to identify the trend based on the movement of moving averages and find the indicator's values between them. There is a bullish signal when the white line crosses the red one from below. Meanwhile, the bearish signal is produced when the white line crosses the red one from above.

Stochastic (Stochastic Oscillator) indicates the strength of the current prevailing trend. If the indicator is above 80, an asset can be considered overbought. If the Stochastic is below 20, then an asset is oversold.

Fibonacci levels are a technical analysis tool that indicates the possible support and resistance levels where price could potentially reverse direction.

According to the H4 chart, BTC broke the $58.7K barrier (the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.768). A breakout of such a strong support level produced a bearish signal. This means that the downward trend is likely to extend. The price also approached the next Fibonacci retracement level that ended at the lower boundary of a wide bearish range ($53K). In other words, the quote may well continue falling as the price usually moves from one level to the other. At the same time, BTC may encounter support on its way down. After a breakout at $58K, it will be important to analyze support areas because they could become levels of a potential reversal.



The main support lines on the H4 chart are $57.3K, $55.8K, and $54.1K. Long positions are concentrated at these levels. Apart from that, their volume is expected to increase. According to technical indicators, BTC is slowing down its movement. The MACD is below 0, while the Stochastic Oscillator and the RSI have reversed upward. This means that bulls have returned to the market. Consequently, the bullish trend could resume shortly, which is better seen on lower time frames where shadows of candlesticks show pressure on the price (shadows are below - bullish pressure, shadows are above - bearish pressure). Given all that, the quote could attempt to rebound soon. Bulls seem to be strong enough to stay above S1 ($57.3K). In such a case, a Stop-loss order could be placed at around $57.1K because the uptrend might be short-term and the downtrend to be long-term, which is signaled by the MACD.



Against this backdrop, the price is likely to bounce from the strong support level of $57.3K. At the same time, in case of upward momentum, a Stop-loss order should be set. In addition, the first shadows of the bearish candlesticks started to emerge on the charts, indicating bullish activity. At the same time, it is too early to talk about the start of the uptrend as bulls are still weak. Therefore, it is important to closely monitor the charts. Long positions could be opened as soon as bulls get stronger. A breakout of the resistance level of $58.7K could also produce one more important bullish signal.







Artem Petrenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

The real folk blockchain: Binance Smart Chain (BSC) sets new records for the number of transactions on the network



The proprietary blockchain from Binance Smart Chain sets new records for the number of transactions within the network. Binance Smart Chain recorded more than 14.5 million transactions on Tuesday, an all-time record of any blockchain.

This record was 12% more than the previous record, which was also set by Binance Smart Chain. According to Sami Karim, coordinator of the Binance Smart Chain ecosystem, daily transactions through the BSC network have exceeded more than 10 million transactions per day over the past 14 days.

Binance Smart Chain can rest on its laurels, as the blockchain has the largest number of transactions with the lowest possible fees.

Also, the blockchain prevails over the Ethereum blockchain, since its in-network fees are tens or even hundreds of times less. The record volume of transactions in the Binance Smart Chain network is more than 12 times greater than the daily volume of transactions through the Ethereum network, where about a million transactions per day have been collected over the past week.

At the moment, the total commission for transactions through the Binance Smart Chain network is about $800 million, while the total amount of commissions for transactions through the Ethereum network is more than $12 billion.

Many holders and traders choose the BSC network, as it is much more profitable and cheaper. Binance Smart Chain has become a really popular ecosystem for many traders, as well as a real godsend for decentralized applications.

At the moment, more than 800 applications are running on this network, such as PancakeSwap and Alpha Finance. Binance Smart Chain is indeed a very strong competitor to Ethereum, at the moment the demand for this blockchain far exceeds the demand for ERC20.

Binance has created a prize fund of more than $1 billion for developers who will create tokens developed on their blockchain.

People choose this blockchain because of its low fees, and if ethereum does not release its ethereum 2.0 update with a reduction in fees, then BEP20 will dominate for many years.

However, do not forget about other blockchains, which are also popular, since their commissions are also quite low, such as TRC20, Cardano, and Solana.





Vitaly Kolesnikov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Bitcoin stops behaving like a stock

This week, bitcoin fell by 7% and at some point approached $58,000, while the Nasdaq 100 shows a slight increase. For some, the fact that the pullback did not have wider ramifications shows that bitcoin remains far from the mainstream.

Bitcoin ceases to behave like a stock

The pandemic-era correlation between bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 futures is disappearing. This, coupled with the recent correction, provokes debate about what role the token can play in investment portfolios.

The 30-day correlation between virtual currency and futures has dropped to almost zero in recent days, from a 2021 peak by the end of September of 0.56 - a value that suggests tech stocks and bitcoin often move in tandem. The correlation has generally been positive since February 2020.

Bitcoin is up about 40% since the end of September, surpassing the Nasdaq 100's 11% rise. The stated role of the token as a means of protection against inflation with a sharp increase in prices in the global economy is one of the factors that led to the growth of the digital asset to a peak of almost $69,000 on November 10.

Carsten Menke, head of the new generation research department at Julius Baer in Zurich, believes that the evolution of the relationship between stocks and bitcoin does not harm the arguments that it is a reliable modern means of saving for portfolios.

"The lack of consistent and negative correlation between bitcoin and stocks clearly indicates that bitcoin is not yet a safe haven," he said, stressing that in times of stress in the financial market, it tends to suffer like other riskier assets.

Bitcoin hovered near a key inflection point of $60,000 on Wednesday as traders seemed to restrain the excessive speculation that last week led to a record price for the world's largest cryptocurrency.

The digital currency fell 3.4% before offsetting losses and remaining unchanged. Some observers attribute the recent drop from a record high of $68,991 to profit-taking before the end of the year. But the decline in the number of meme coins such as Dogecoin and Shiba Inu also suggests that cryptocurrencies may "wash away some speculation" by retail traders, analyst Mike McGlone said.






Egor Danilov
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021

[IFX_Selena]

Ripple sees Falling Wedge pattern

Ripple plunged in the short term after failing to stabilize above 1.3 psychological level. At the time of writing, it was traded at 1.0522 level above 1.0156 today's low. Technically, the price action developed a potential Falling Wedge pattern, but this reversal formation is far from being confirmed.

XRP/USD dropped as the price of Bitcoin extended its sell-off. XRP/USD registered a 24.73% drop from 1.3494 higher-high registered on November 10th to 1.0115 today's low. In the last 24 hours, the volume increased by 38.05%.

XRP/USD AT SUPPORT



As you can see on the H4 chart, XRP/USD registered a false breakdown with great separation below the uptrend line and now is struggling to rebound. The pressure remains high as the rate stands below the downtrend line. 1.0 psychological level stands as a major support level. Staying above the uptrend line and making an upside breakout from the Falling Wedge formation could signal that the downside movement is over and that the XRP/USD could turn to the upside.


RIPPLE FORECAST

Validating the bullish reversal pattern could signal a new leg higher. On the other hand, closing and stabilizing under the uptrend line may signal a deeper drop.








Ralph Shedler
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021